AAON's AI data-center cooling boom drives record results, but valuation worries bite
AI data-center cooling demand lifts guidance and backlog AAON raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 40-45% as AI data centers need its BASX liquid-cooling gear. BASX sales jumped 72.4% and total backlog more than doubled to $2.13 billion, giving the company a long runway of booked work.
This is the core force behind AAON's surge and the main reason its price has been moving.
Q2 revenue more than doubles, beating estimates AAON's second-quarter revenue hit $627 million, up 101% from a year earlier and far above the $503 million analysts expected. Earnings per share of $0.69 also beat by nearly 40%, and operating margin improved to 11% from 7.7%.
The blowout quarter confirms the demand story is translating into actual sales and profit, pushing the stock up.
BASX 2026 revenue forecast raised to about $1 billion Management lifted its 2026 BASX revenue target to roughly $1 billion from $715 million, reflecting accelerating AI-driven data-center investment. The rooftop HVAC business also rebounded, though gross margins fell as AAON chose growth and market share over near-term profit.
The raised BASX forecast shows the growth engine is still accelerating, a key support for the stock.
Shares fall 10.2% despite raised guidance on valuation and execution fears Even after raising 2026 guidance and posting record results, AAON shares dropped 10.2%. The market is worried about execution risk, margin swings, and a rich earnings multiple, showing that high expectations are already baked into the price.
This is the real counterweight: strong fundamentals but a stock priced for perfection, so any doubt triggers a sell-off.