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Airbus vs Thai Airways International: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Airbus Group SE (AIR.PA)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Airbus Q3: Strong Profit and Orders, but Defects and Challenges Loom

  • Record Profit and Raised Targets Airbus's first-half profit jumped 47% to €2.24bn, driven by record second-quarter deliveries. The company raised its 2026 delivery target to 890-900 jets and announced a €5.8bn share buyback, signaling confidence in future cash flow.

    This point highlights the core financial performance that directly supports the stock price.

  • Major Orders and Global Expansion Airbus secured significant orders from China, Amazon, and others, boosting its backlog. It also opened a second assembly line in Tianjin, China, and progressed with the A350F freighter, nearing its first flight, which strengthens its product lineup and market position.

    This point shows new demand and operational expansion that drive future revenue growth.

  • Paint Defect on A321neo Jets A paint defect affecting roughly 500 A321neo jets was discovered, requiring repairs. This adds unexpected costs and could disrupt deliveries, potentially hurting customer relations and near-term financial performance.

    This point identifies a new operational issue that could weigh on the stock.

  • Space Unit Charges and Strategic Review Airbus's US space unit is loss-making and being shopped after €989m in charges. This reflects challenges in the space business, diverting management attention and potentially leading to further write-downs or restructuring costs.

    This point highlights a financial drag and strategic uncertainty that could negatively impact investor sentiment.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Airbus wins new orders but faces A321neo paint defect

  • Chinese airlines order $17.8bn of Airbus jets Air China, Shenzhen Airlines and Hainan Airlines ordered 95 Airbus jets worth $17.8 billion at list prices, for delivery 2029–2032. This locks in years of future revenue and supports Airbus's production plans, a clear positive for the shares.

    A large new order book addition directly supports future revenue and the investment case.

  • Paint defect hits about 500 A321neo jets A supplier paint defect affects roughly 500 A321neo aircraft, including 250 still in production, requiring rework. Airbus says safety and delivery targets are unaffected, but the extra work could slow output and add cost, weighing on the stock.

    This is a fresh operational problem that could disrupt supply and margins.

  • Amazon shifts cargo fleet to Airbus A330 freighters Amazon will replace its Boeing 767 freighters with 30 Airbus A330 cargo jets, operated by ATSG from 2027. This is a high-profile win in the air-cargo market long dominated by Boeing, boosting Airbus's freighter credentials and future orders.

    A major customer switching to Airbus expands its freighter market share.

  • Thailand deepens Airbus partnership Thailand's prime minister discussed expanding cooperation with Airbus in aviation, space, clean energy and training, including a new Center of Excellence. Closer ties support future aircraft sales and regional influence, a modest positive for Airbus.

    Government-level cooperation can lead to more orders and regional presence.

Latest
▲3▼1

Airbus wins new orders but faces A321neo paint defect

  • Chinese airlines order $17.8bn of Airbus jets Air China, Shenzhen Airlines and Hainan Airlines ordered 95 Airbus jets worth $17.8 billion at list prices, for delivery 2029–2032. This locks in years of future revenue and supports Airbus's production plans, a clear positive for the shares.

    A large new order book addition directly supports future revenue and the investment case.

  • Paint defect hits about 500 A321neo jets A supplier paint defect affects roughly 500 A321neo aircraft, including 250 still in production, requiring rework. Airbus says safety and delivery targets are unaffected, but the extra work could slow output and add cost, weighing on the stock.

    This is a fresh operational problem that could disrupt supply and margins.

  • Amazon shifts cargo fleet to Airbus A330 freighters Amazon will replace its Boeing 767 freighters with 30 Airbus A330 cargo jets, operated by ATSG from 2027. This is a high-profile win in the air-cargo market long dominated by Boeing, boosting Airbus's freighter credentials and future orders.

    A major customer switching to Airbus expands its freighter market share.

  • Thailand deepens Airbus partnership Thailand's prime minister discussed expanding cooperation with Airbus in aviation, space, clean energy and training, including a new Center of Excellence. Closer ties support future aircraft sales and regional influence, a modest positive for Airbus.

    Government-level cooperation can lead to more orders and regional presence.

September 2026
▲3▼1

Airbus advances freighter, China output and Asian demand; trims US space

  • A350F freighter nears first test flight Airbus tentatively set the A350F freighter's first test flight for late September, aiming for 2027 deliveries. This opens the air-cargo market long dominated by Boeing, with 107 already sold, supporting future revenue and a new growth story for the stock.

    New product milestone that expands Airbus into a market it barely serves, a genuine future earnings driver.

  • Second Tianjin line starts delivering A320neos Airbus delivered the first A320neo from its second Tianjin assembly line to China Eastern. The extra capacity helps push A320-family output toward 75 a month, easing the supply bottleneck that has held back deliveries and cash flow.

    New capacity directly addresses Airbus's main constraint — how fast it can build planes — so it matters to future deliveries.

  • Asian airline demand keeps building United plans five new European routes with A321XLRs, Thai Airways will add A321s and lift long-haul frequencies, and Airbus made Thailand its Skywise digital hub. More routes and fleet growth mean more Airbus aircraft sold and supported across Asia and beyond.

    Shows real airline orders and expansion translating into demand for Airbus jets, the core of its business.

  • Airbus shops its US space unit Airbus is seeking buyers for its US space business, which makes small satellites in Florida, after €989 million of charges in 2024. Selling it would shrink a loss-making operation, but signals continued weakness in space and possible further restructuring costs.

    The only negative item this period and a real counterweight, showing space remains a drag on Airbus.

▲3▼1

Airbus advances freighter, China output and Asian demand; trims US space

  • A350F freighter nears first test flight Airbus tentatively set the A350F freighter's first test flight for late September, aiming for 2027 deliveries. This opens the air-cargo market long dominated by Boeing, with 107 already sold, supporting future revenue and a new growth story for the stock.

    New product milestone that expands Airbus into a market it barely serves, a genuine future earnings driver.

  • Second Tianjin line starts delivering A320neos Airbus delivered the first A320neo from its second Tianjin assembly line to China Eastern. The extra capacity helps push A320-family output toward 75 a month, easing the supply bottleneck that has held back deliveries and cash flow.

    New capacity directly addresses Airbus's main constraint — how fast it can build planes — so it matters to future deliveries.

  • Asian airline demand keeps building United plans five new European routes with A321XLRs, Thai Airways will add A321s and lift long-haul frequencies, and Airbus made Thailand its Skywise digital hub. More routes and fleet growth mean more Airbus aircraft sold and supported across Asia and beyond.

    Shows real airline orders and expansion translating into demand for Airbus jets, the core of its business.

  • Airbus shops its US space unit Airbus is seeking buyers for its US space business, which makes small satellites in Florida, after €989 million of charges in 2024. Selling it would shrink a loss-making operation, but signals continued weakness in space and possible further restructuring costs.

    The only negative item this period and a real counterweight, showing space remains a drag on Airbus.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Airbus lifts profit, buyback, and targets despite headwinds

  • Strong H1 results and raised targets Airbus reported a 47% jump in first-half profit to €2.24bn, record Q2 deliveries, and raised its 2026 delivery target to about 890-900 jets. It also lifted its 2029 profit goal to €12-13bn, signaling confidence in future growth.

    This is the core positive news that drove investor optimism during the period.

  • €5.8bn buyback and major orders Airbus announced a €5.8bn share buyback and won significant orders from Air China, Hainan Airlines, SMBC, and Riyadh Air. These moves return cash to shareholders and boost the order backlog, supporting the stock price.

    Buyback and new orders are direct positive catalysts for the stock.

  • Demand forecast cut and strike disruption Airbus cut its 20-year demand forecast by 1% due to Middle East conflict and tariffs, and a strike at Getafe disrupted inspections and deliveries. These factors create uncertainty and near-term operational challenges.

    These are the main negative developments that weighed on sentiment.

  • Boeing subsidy challenge and new supplier Boeing is challenging €3bn in EU loans to Airbus, raising trade and subsidy risk. Meanwhile, Airbus added SeAH as a new Korean aluminum supplier from 2028, strengthening the supply chain but highlighting ongoing regulatory and sourcing complexities.

    This regulatory risk and supply chain update are new and relevant to the investment case.

▲4

Airbus profit jumps, buyback launched, supply chain strengthened

  • First-half profit surges 47% on higher deliveries Airbus reported a 47% jump in first-half net income to €2.24 billion, with revenue up 12% to €33.18 billion. More deliveries mean more cash and profit, directly boosting the stock.

    This is a major new earnings result that shows strong financial performance and supports the stock price.

  • Airbus raises 2029 profit target and launches €5.8B buyback Airbus increased its 2029 adjusted EBIT guidance and announced a €5.8 billion share buyback. Buybacks return cash to shareholders and the higher target signals management confidence, pushing the stock up.

    This is a new capital return and guidance increase that directly affects shareholder value and stock price.

  • Airbus hints at up to 890 deliveries for 2026 Airbus suggested its full-year 2026 deliveries could reach around 890, up from 870, after a record 237 deliveries in Q2. Higher deliveries mean more revenue and profit, supporting the stock.

    This is a new bullish delivery outlook that indicates stronger operational performance and future earnings.

  • New aluminum alloy supplier strengthens supply chain SeAH Aerospace & Defense became Korea's first direct supplier of high-strength aluminum alloys to Airbus, with production starting in 2028. This secures a key material source amid rising demand, reducing supply risk and supporting future output.

    This is a new supply chain development that helps Airbus meet production targets and manage costs.

▲3▼1

Airbus lifts profit target and buyback, wins $17.8B China orders

  • Airbus sets 2029 profit target and €5B buyback Airbus announced a mid-term target of €12–13 billion core profit by 2029, up from €7.13 billion in 2025, and a €5 billion share buyback over three years. The stock jumped about 7% because buybacks return cash to shareholders and the higher profit goal signals management confidence in future earnings.

    This is the biggest new price driver, directly boosting investor confidence and shareholder returns.

  • Airbus wins $17.8B in orders from Chinese airlines Air China ordered 15 A350-900s and 40 A320neo-family jets for $12.4 billion, while Hainan Airlines ordered 40 A320neos for up to $5.36 billion. These large orders add to Airbus's backlog and future revenue, strengthening its lead over Boeing in China's fast-growing aviation market.

    This is a major new order win that directly increases future revenue and market share.

  • Farnborough Airshow brings more Airbus orders At the Farnborough Airshow, SMBC Aviation Capital ordered 100 A320neo-family jets, Riyadh Air bought six A350-1000s, and British Airways selected Pratt & Whitney engines for up to 63 A320neos. These deals confirm strong demand for Airbus jets and support its production ramp-up plans.

    New order wins at a major industry event reinforce Airbus's strong demand pipeline.

  • Boeing challenges EU loans to Airbus Boeing asked the U.S. government to press the EU over €3 billion in European Investment Bank loans to Airbus, alleging a lack of transparency. This could lead to trade tensions or subsidy restrictions, adding regulatory risk that may weigh on Airbus's stock.

    This is a new regulatory and geopolitical risk that could hurt Airbus if it escalates.

▲2▼2

Airbus wins China orders, delivery target up; strikes and demand forecast cut weigh

  • Airbus targets record 900+ deliveries in 2026 Airbus aims to deliver over 900 jets in 2026, beating its official 870 target, after a strong first half with 351 deliveries. More deliveries mean more cash and profit, which supports the stock price.

    This shows operational strength and potential upside to earnings, a key driver for the stock.

  • Airbus cuts 20-year demand forecast by 1% Airbus lowered its 20-year aircraft demand forecast by 1%, citing Middle East conflict and trade tariffs. This suggests slower long-term growth for the industry, which could pressure Airbus's future orders and stock price.

    It signals weaker future demand, a negative for long-term revenue growth.

  • Getafe strike disrupts inspections and deliveries A large strike at Airbus's Getafe plant in Spain is disrupting inspections and deliveries. This creates operational bottlenecks and could delay handovers, hurting short-term revenue and margins.

    It highlights a supply-side risk that could impact near-term deliveries and profitability.

  • Air China and Hainan Airlines order 95 Airbus jets Air China agreed to buy 55 Airbus jets for $12.44 billion, and Hainan Airlines ordered 40 A320neo jets for up to $5.36 billion. These large orders boost Airbus's backlog and future revenue, supporting the stock.

    Major orders directly increase backlog and revenue visibility, a positive catalyst.

Q2 2026
▲2▼2

Airbus wins $9.35B China order, faces A380 crack checks and Embraer threat

  • China Eastern $9.35B order Airbus won a $9.35 billion order from China Eastern for 25 A330neo widebody jets, with deliveries from 2029 to 2033. This boosts Airbus's backlog and cements its lead in China, where it has already booked over 200 orders this year. More orders mean more future revenue and profit, supporting the stock price.

    This is the largest new order and directly boosts Airbus's revenue outlook.

  • A380 wing crack inspections expand European regulators ordered extra wing inspections on 16 Airbus A380 jets after cracks were found. This adds cost and complexity for airlines still flying the aging superjumbo. Although production ended in 2021, the issue could hurt Airbus's reputation and lead to repair liabilities, weighing on the stock.

    This is a new regulatory burden that could create costs and reputational damage.

  • Embraer considers narrow-body challenge Embraer is weighing a bet-the-company move into narrow-body jets, directly challenging Airbus's A320 duopoly with Boeing. Airlines facing decade-long waits for A320s have approached Embraer. If Embraer proceeds, it could eventually erode Airbus's pricing power and market share, though any new jet is years away.

    This is a new competitive threat that could alter the long-term narrow-body market.

  • Space merger and supply deals Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales sought EU approval to merge their space units, aiming to compete with SpaceX. Separately, Airbus signed a long-term A220 insulation deal with 3M and sold up to six H145 helicopters to Armenia. These moves strengthen Airbus's space position and supply chain, supporting long-term growth.

    These are new strategic and supply agreements that enhance Airbus's business portfolio.

June 2026
▲2▼2

Airbus wins $9.35B China order, faces A380 crack checks and Embraer threat

  • China Eastern $9.35B order Airbus won a $9.35 billion order from China Eastern for 25 A330neo widebody jets, with deliveries from 2029 to 2033. This boosts Airbus's backlog and cements its lead in China, where it has already booked over 200 orders this year. More orders mean more future revenue and profit, supporting the stock price.

    This is the largest new order and directly boosts Airbus's revenue outlook.

  • A380 wing crack inspections expand European regulators ordered extra wing inspections on 16 Airbus A380 jets after cracks were found. This adds cost and complexity for airlines still flying the aging superjumbo. Although production ended in 2021, the issue could hurt Airbus's reputation and lead to repair liabilities, weighing on the stock.

    This is a new regulatory burden that could create costs and reputational damage.

  • Embraer considers narrow-body challenge Embraer is weighing a bet-the-company move into narrow-body jets, directly challenging Airbus's A320 duopoly with Boeing. Airlines facing decade-long waits for A320s have approached Embraer. If Embraer proceeds, it could eventually erode Airbus's pricing power and market share, though any new jet is years away.

    This is a new competitive threat that could alter the long-term narrow-body market.

  • Space merger and supply deals Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales sought EU approval to merge their space units, aiming to compete with SpaceX. Separately, Airbus signed a long-term A220 insulation deal with 3M and sold up to six H145 helicopters to Armenia. These moves strengthen Airbus's space position and supply chain, supporting long-term growth.

    These are new strategic and supply agreements that enhance Airbus's business portfolio.

▲2▼2

Airbus wins $9.35B China order, faces A380 crack checks and Embraer threat

  • China Eastern $9.35B order Airbus won a $9.35 billion order from China Eastern for 25 A330neo widebody jets, with deliveries from 2029 to 2033. This boosts Airbus's backlog and cements its lead in China, where it has already booked over 200 orders this year. More orders mean more future revenue and profit, supporting the stock price.

    This is the largest new order and directly boosts Airbus's revenue outlook.

  • A380 wing crack inspections expand European regulators ordered extra wing inspections on 16 Airbus A380 jets after cracks were found. This adds cost and complexity for airlines still flying the aging superjumbo. Although production ended in 2021, the issue could hurt Airbus's reputation and lead to repair liabilities, weighing on the stock.

    This is a new regulatory burden that could create costs and reputational damage.

  • Embraer considers narrow-body challenge Embraer is weighing a bet-the-company move into narrow-body jets, directly challenging Airbus's A320 duopoly with Boeing. Airlines facing decade-long waits for A320s have approached Embraer. If Embraer proceeds, it could eventually erode Airbus's pricing power and market share, though any new jet is years away.

    This is a new competitive threat that could alter the long-term narrow-body market.

  • Space merger and supply deals Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales sought EU approval to merge their space units, aiming to compete with SpaceX. Separately, Airbus signed a long-term A220 insulation deal with 3M and sold up to six H145 helicopters to Armenia. These moves strengthen Airbus's space position and supply chain, supporting long-term growth.

    These are new strategic and supply agreements that enhance Airbus's business portfolio.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI.BK)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Thai Airways Q3 mixed: profit trough, but fuel, lock-up, floods weigh

  • Q2 profit trough and core earnings beat Q2 marked the profit trough, with core earnings beating expectations on higher fares and cargo revenue. This suggests the worst may be over, supporting recovery hopes.

    It signals a potential turning point in profitability, a key driver for the stock.

  • Lower oil prices and broker upgrades Lower oil prices and broker upgrades (KKPS Buy, 9.20 baht target) provided support. Fleet expansion under Jump+ plan and FTSE Small Cap inclusion also boosted sentiment.

    These factors directly improve cost outlook and investor perception, driving price.

  • Q2 profit plunge and share lock-up expiry Q2 profit plunged 87% on doubled jet fuel costs and weak demand. The expiry of a 19.8bn-share lock-up created heavy selling pressure, weighing on the stock.

    These are major negative events that pressured the stock price during the quarter.

  • Bangkok flooding and CEO suspension Bangkok flooding caused cancellations, a 12,000-ton cargo backlog, and 30% capacity cuts. The CEO's suspension adds leadership uncertainty, further dampening investor confidence.

    Operational disruptions and management instability are significant negative drivers.

September 2026
▲2▼2

Thai Airways: FTSE boost, flood disruptions, CEO suspended

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion and winter schedule expansion Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index and expanded its winter schedule to 998 weekly flights. Strong bookings with an 85% cabin factor support its 200 billion baht revenue target.

    This point highlights the positive operational and market developments that drove investor sentiment during the period.

  • Bangkok flooding causes flight cancellations and cargo backlog Severe flooding in Bangkok forced dozens of flight cancellations, stranded over 5,600 bags, cut capacity by 30%, and suspended cargo operations with a 12,000-ton backlog, disrupting operations.

    This point captures the major operational disruption that negatively impacted the airline's performance during the period.

  • CEO suspended pending investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri pending an investigation, creating leadership uncertainty and potentially affecting strategic execution and investor confidence.

    This point addresses the governance and leadership risk that emerged during the period.

  • Brokers recommend gradual accumulation on cheap valuation Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a cheap 6.9x 2027 P/E, a 7.56 baht target, lower fuel costs, and expected high-season earnings recovery, despite recent disruptions.

    This point shows analyst optimism and the factors that could drive future price recovery.

Latest
▼3▲1

Flood crisis hits Thai Airways operations, CEO suspended; recovery and cheap valuation in focus

  • Flooding forces flight cancellations and baggage chaos Bangkok flooding left ground staff unable to reach work, so Thai Airways cancelled dozens of flights, stranded over 5,600 bags, and cut Bangkok capacity by about 30%. This directly hits peak-season revenue and adds compensation costs, weighing on the shares.

    This is the core new event that explains the sharp drop in THAI shares this period.

  • Cargo operations suspended, 12,000 tons backlogged Thai Airways halted inbound and outbound cargo at Suvarnabhumi from October 1–6 after flooding caused a staffing shortage, leaving about 12,000 tons of goods stuck. The government pressured the airline to fix it fast, adding to reputational and financial damage.

    Cargo is a meaningful profit source and the suspension is a new operational blow not previously reported.

  • CEO suspended, board launches investigation The board suspended CEO Chai Eamsiri and appointed an acting chief pending a fact-finding probe into crisis management. Leadership uncertainty and possible governance issues are a short-term overhang, though brokers see limited profit impact if operations normalise quickly.

    This is a major new governance event that adds uncertainty and affects investor confidence.

  • Recovery underway, brokers see cheap valuation and Q4 rebound Thai Airways restored most flights by October 1–3 and cleared the baggage backlog. Brokers recommend gradual accumulation, citing a 7.56 baht consensus target, a cheap 2027 P/E of 6.9x, lower fuel costs, and a high-season earnings recovery.

    This provides the counterweight: the operational crisis is easing and analysts still see value and a Q4 rebound.

▲3

Thai Airways: index inclusion, winter schedule, and bookings offset fuel cost pressure

  • FTSE Small Cap inclusion draws index-tracking buyers Thai Airways joined the FTSE Small Cap index effective September 18-21, 2026. Funds that track the index must buy the stock, creating steady demand. This is a one-time technical event that can lift the share price as new buyers step in.

    This is a new, concrete event that directly increases demand for THAI shares.

  • Winter schedule adds flights and routes, boosting revenue outlook Thai Airways launched its winter 2026/2027 schedule with 998 weekly flights across 66 routes, including a new Bangkok-Da Nang service and more flights to Europe. More flights mean more revenue, supporting the company's 200 billion baht full-year target.

    This is a new operational expansion that directly supports future revenue and earnings.

  • Strong bookings and 85% cabin factor signal resilient demand KGI Securities said 3Q69 bookings grew year on year, helped by a European route recovery and an 85% cabin factor. The fourth quarter is expected to grow with the tourism season. This shows demand is holding up despite high fuel costs, supporting earnings.

    This is new analyst evidence that passenger demand remains strong, a key driver of profit.

  • CEO search adds uncertainty but also a chance for fresh strategy Thai Airways opened applications for a new CEO to succeed Chai Eamsiri, whose term ends in January 2027. The new leader must handle 80 billion baht in debenture debt and a 55-aircraft order plan. Uncertainty over leadership can weigh on the stock, but a strong new CEO could improve execution.

    This is a new governance event that could affect investor confidence and future strategy.

August 2026
▲3▼1

Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

▲3▼1

Thai Airways: fuel spike hits Q2, but upgrades and recovery bets lift outlook

  • Q2 profit plunges 87% on fuel spike Thai Airways' second-quarter profit fell 87% to 1.528 billion baht as jet fuel prices more than doubled due to Middle East unrest. Fewer passengers and a lower load factor added pressure, showing how fuel and travel demand directly hit earnings.

    This is the period's biggest negative event and explains why the stock faced pressure.

  • Brokers: core profit beat despite fuel Analysts said core profit was stronger than expected, helped by higher fares and cargo revenue. Most kept buy or hold ratings and expect a clear recovery in the fourth quarter as peak travel season begins and fuel hedging rises to 40%.

    It shows the market looked past the headline profit drop and focused on underlying strength.

  • Fleet and route expansion targets 2028 growth Thai Airways reaffirmed its Jump+ plan, targeting 14-15% revenue growth in 2028 and expanding its fleet from 84 to 128 aircraft. New routes to Xiamen and Da Nang and more European flights signal confidence in future demand.

    It gives a concrete long-term growth path that supports the investment case.

  • KKPS upgrades to Buy, target 9.20 baht KKPS upgraded Thai Airways to Buy and raised its target price to 9.20 baht, citing higher fares, market share gains from low-cost and Middle Eastern carriers, and rising profit through 2028. Middle East conflict pushing oil higher remains the key risk.

    A fresh analyst upgrade with a much higher target directly boosts investor sentiment.

July 2026
▲2▼2

THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

▲2▼2

THAI's Q2 profit troughs as 20bn share unlock pressures price, but lower oil offers recovery

  • Q2 profit set to be year's lowest Brokers expect THAI's Q2 2026 profit to plunge 88-91% from a year earlier to 850m-2.27bn baht, hit by high fuel costs and Middle East conflict. This weak earnings picture weighs on the shares.

    Directly explains the weak earnings backdrop driving the stock.

  • 19.8bn share lock-up expiry creates selling pressure On 4 August, 19.8bn shares (70% of total) from debt-to-equity conversion became tradable. Creditors who got shares at ~2.5 baht can sell at a profit, adding a large supply overhang that pushes the price down.

    This is the main new supply event pressuring the stock.

  • U-Tapao MRO lease signed, long-term revenue stream THAI signed a 50-year lease for a 210-rai maintenance site at U-Tapao, investing ~13bn baht. Operations start 2030, adding a new long-term revenue source and government partnership, which supports the stock's long-term value.

    New capital project that adds long-term value and is a positive driver.

  • Lower oil prices and Q3 recovery hopes Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, cutting jet fuel costs. Brokers see Q2 as the trough and expect Q3 improvement, with some upgrading THAI to buy, which supports the share price.

    Shows the positive counterweight that could lift the stock after the lock-up.

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