← Applied Digital overview

Applied Digital vs Fair Isaac: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

APLD Q4 Revenue Soars 407%, Backlog $36B, But Valuation and Sector Risks Loom

  • Fiscal Q4 Revenue Surges 407% to $258.7M, Beating Estimates Applied Digital reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $258.7 million, up 407% year over year, beating analyst estimates. The strong results reflect accelerating demand for AI data center capacity and improving execution, boosting investor confidence.

    This is the primary new financial result that drove positive sentiment during the period.

  • Contracted Lease Backlog Reaches $36B Across 1.41 GW Applied Digital's contracted lease backlog hit $36 billion across 1.41 GW, with over 70% backed by investment-grade hyperscalers. Management now expects to hit its $1 billion annual net operating income target three years early, signaling strong future cash flows.

    This new backlog figure and accelerated target highlight the scale of demand and future revenue visibility.

  • B. Riley Reiterates Buy with $66 Target; Sector Tailwinds B. Riley reiterated a Buy rating with a $66 price target, citing strong growth prospects. Sector momentum from Nvidia and CoreWeave added tailwinds, lifting Applied Digital shares as investors grew more optimistic about AI infrastructure demand.

    Analyst endorsement and sector momentum were key positive drivers during the quarter.

  • Valuation and Financing Risks Temper Bull Case Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with Equal-weight, citing lower returns on invested capital and financing risks. APLD's 526x forward P/E and $1.59 billion in 7% senior secured notes leave little margin for error, with customer concentration an ongoing concern.

    These new risk factors provide a necessary counterweight to the positive developments.

August 2026
▲3▼1

AI demand and $36B backlog drive APLD, but financing and peer risk weigh

  • AI data center demand remains red-hot Applied Digital's $36 billion lease pipeline and 167% revenue growth show strong demand for AI data centers. Goldman Sachs estimates $7.6 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2031, a huge tailwind. This supports the stock because it means more future revenue and growth.

    Explains the core demand driver behind APLD's move and its long-term growth potential.

  • Earnings beat and accelerated profit target Q4 revenue surged 407% to $258.7 million, beating estimates, and management now expects to hit its $1 billion annual net operating income target three years early. This shows the AI buildout is translating into real profits, pushing the stock up.

    Highlights the fundamental earnings strength that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock price.

  • Sector momentum from Nvidia and peers Nvidia's blowout earnings and strong guidance, plus CoreWeave's accelerating backlog, lifted AI infrastructure stocks including Applied Digital. Nvidia remains supply constrained, making contracted power and hosting capacity more valuable. This sector-wide demand signal pushes APLD higher.

    Shows how broader AI compute demand and peer results directly lift APLD's stock.

  • Financing risks and peer impairment IREN's $638.8 million impairment on obsolete mining gear triggered a sector selloff, with APLD down 7%. APLD's high forward P/E of 526x and $1.59 billion in 7% senior secured notes leave little cushion. Financing large projects and customer concentration remain real risks.

    Provides the key counterweight: financing and peer risks that can pressure APLD's stock.

Latest
▲3▼1

AI demand and $36B backlog drive APLD, but financing and peer risk weigh

  • AI data center demand remains red-hot Applied Digital's $36 billion lease pipeline and 167% revenue growth show strong demand for AI data centers. Goldman Sachs estimates $7.6 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2031, a huge tailwind. This supports the stock because it means more future revenue and growth.

    Explains the core demand driver behind APLD's move and its long-term growth potential.

  • Earnings beat and accelerated profit target Q4 revenue surged 407% to $258.7 million, beating estimates, and management now expects to hit its $1 billion annual net operating income target three years early. This shows the AI buildout is translating into real profits, pushing the stock up.

    Highlights the fundamental earnings strength that directly boosts investor confidence and the stock price.

  • Sector momentum from Nvidia and peers Nvidia's blowout earnings and strong guidance, plus CoreWeave's accelerating backlog, lifted AI infrastructure stocks including Applied Digital. Nvidia remains supply constrained, making contracted power and hosting capacity more valuable. This sector-wide demand signal pushes APLD higher.

    Shows how broader AI compute demand and peer results directly lift APLD's stock.

  • Financing risks and peer impairment IREN's $638.8 million impairment on obsolete mining gear triggered a sector selloff, with APLD down 7%. APLD's high forward P/E of 526x and $1.59 billion in 7% senior secured notes leave little cushion. Financing large projects and customer concentration remain real risks.

    Provides the key counterweight: financing and peer risks that can pressure APLD's stock.

July 2026
▲3

Applied Digital's AI Data Center Backlog Hits $36B as Earnings Soar

  • Fiscal Q4 Revenue Surges 407%, Beats Estimates Applied Digital reported Q4 revenue of $258.7 million, up 407% year over year, crushing the $94.8 million estimate. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 4 cents versus an expected 22-cent loss. This shows the AI data center buildout is translating into real, accelerating revenue, pushing the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly answers why APLD is moving now.

  • Contracted Lease Backlog Reaches $36 Billion Across 1.41 GW On its earnings call, Applied Digital said it has 1.41 gigawatts of contracted IT load across five campuses, supporting about $36 billion in base-term lease revenue. Over 70% is backed by investment-grade hyperscalers. This massive backlog gives long-term cash flow visibility, boosting investor confidence and the stock.

    This is a new, concrete metric that quantifies the company's future revenue and validates demand.

  • B. Riley Reiterates Buy, $66 Target After EBITDA Beat B. Riley kept its Buy rating and $66 price target after Applied Digital's Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $42.4 million beat its $24.6 million estimate. The analyst also noted improving construction times and lower financing costs. This analyst endorsement reinforces the bullish case and supports the stock price.

    This is a new analyst action that directly reflects the earnings beat and provides a price target.

  • Morgan Stanley Initiates Equal-weight, Citing Lower Returns and Financing Risks Morgan Stanley started coverage with an Equal-weight rating and $36.50 target, noting Applied Digital's lower returns on invested capital and financing risks compared to peers. While it acknowledges the sizable lease portfolio, this cautious view tempers upside and could weigh on the stock.

    This is a new counterweight that provides a balanced view of the risks and limits the bullish narrative.

▲3

Applied Digital's AI Data Center Backlog Hits $36B as Earnings Soar

  • Fiscal Q4 Revenue Surges 407%, Beats Estimates Applied Digital reported Q4 revenue of $258.7 million, up 407% year over year, crushing the $94.8 million estimate. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 4 cents versus an expected 22-cent loss. This shows the AI data center buildout is translating into real, accelerating revenue, pushing the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly answers why APLD is moving now.

  • Contracted Lease Backlog Reaches $36 Billion Across 1.41 GW On its earnings call, Applied Digital said it has 1.41 gigawatts of contracted IT load across five campuses, supporting about $36 billion in base-term lease revenue. Over 70% is backed by investment-grade hyperscalers. This massive backlog gives long-term cash flow visibility, boosting investor confidence and the stock.

    This is a new, concrete metric that quantifies the company's future revenue and validates demand.

  • B. Riley Reiterates Buy, $66 Target After EBITDA Beat B. Riley kept its Buy rating and $66 price target after Applied Digital's Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $42.4 million beat its $24.6 million estimate. The analyst also noted improving construction times and lower financing costs. This analyst endorsement reinforces the bullish case and supports the stock price.

    This is a new analyst action that directly reflects the earnings beat and provides a price target.

  • Morgan Stanley Initiates Equal-weight, Citing Lower Returns and Financing Risks Morgan Stanley started coverage with an Equal-weight rating and $36.50 target, noting Applied Digital's lower returns on invested capital and financing risks compared to peers. While it acknowledges the sizable lease portfolio, this cautious view tempers upside and could weigh on the stock.

    This is a new counterweight that provides a balanced view of the risks and limits the bullish narrative.

Q2 2026
▲4

Applied Digital's AI Data Center Buildout Accelerates with New Leases and On-Time Delivery

  • New 210 MW Hyperscaler Lease Adds $5.2B Contracted Revenue Applied Digital signed a 15-year lease with a high-investment-grade hyperscaler for 210 MW, expected to generate $5.2 billion in base revenue. This boosts future cash flow and validates demand, pushing the stock up as investors see growing backlog.

    This is a new major contract that directly increases APLD's future revenue and is a key reason for the recent price target hike.

  • Polaris Forge 1 Delivers Second Building, Live Capacity Hits 175 MW Applied Digital brought 75 MW online on schedule at Polaris Forge 1, reaching 175 MW of live capacity. This shows execution strength and supports revenue growth, lifting investor confidence and the stock price.

    This operational milestone demonstrates the company's ability to deliver on its backlog, a key driver of the stock's momentum.

  • Fiscal Q3 Revenue Surges 139%, Adjusted EBITDA $44.1M Applied Digital reported Q3 revenue of $126.6 million, up 139% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $44.1 million. Strong financial performance signals accelerating demand and improving profitability, pushing the stock higher.

    This is a new earnings report that confirms the company's rapid growth and is a fundamental driver of the stock's recent rise.

  • Montana-Dakota Utilities Signs Power Agreement for Polaris Forge 3 Montana-Dakota Utilities agreed to supply power to Applied Digital's proposed 430 MW AI factory in North Dakota. This secures critical infrastructure for future growth, boosting investor confidence in the company's expansion plans.

    This is a new agreement that de-risks the power supply for a major future campus, supporting the growth narrative.

June 2026
▲4

Applied Digital's AI Data Center Buildout Accelerates with New Leases and On-Time Delivery

  • New 210 MW Hyperscaler Lease Adds $5.2B Contracted Revenue Applied Digital signed a 15-year lease with a high-investment-grade hyperscaler for 210 MW, expected to generate $5.2 billion in base revenue. This boosts future cash flow and validates demand, pushing the stock up as investors see growing backlog.

    This is a new major contract that directly increases APLD's future revenue and is a key reason for the recent price target hike.

  • Polaris Forge 1 Delivers Second Building, Live Capacity Hits 175 MW Applied Digital brought 75 MW online on schedule at Polaris Forge 1, reaching 175 MW of live capacity. This shows execution strength and supports revenue growth, lifting investor confidence and the stock price.

    This operational milestone demonstrates the company's ability to deliver on its backlog, a key driver of the stock's momentum.

  • Fiscal Q3 Revenue Surges 139%, Adjusted EBITDA $44.1M Applied Digital reported Q3 revenue of $126.6 million, up 139% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $44.1 million. Strong financial performance signals accelerating demand and improving profitability, pushing the stock higher.

    This is a new earnings report that confirms the company's rapid growth and is a fundamental driver of the stock's recent rise.

  • Montana-Dakota Utilities Signs Power Agreement for Polaris Forge 3 Montana-Dakota Utilities agreed to supply power to Applied Digital's proposed 430 MW AI factory in North Dakota. This secures critical infrastructure for future growth, boosting investor confidence in the company's expansion plans.

    This is a new agreement that de-risks the power supply for a major future campus, supporting the growth narrative.

▲4

Applied Digital's AI Data Center Buildout Accelerates with New Leases and On-Time Delivery

  • New 210 MW Hyperscaler Lease Adds $5.2B Contracted Revenue Applied Digital signed a 15-year lease with a high-investment-grade hyperscaler for 210 MW, expected to generate $5.2 billion in base revenue. This boosts future cash flow and validates demand, pushing the stock up as investors see growing backlog.

    This is a new major contract that directly increases APLD's future revenue and is a key reason for the recent price target hike.

  • Polaris Forge 1 Delivers Second Building, Live Capacity Hits 175 MW Applied Digital brought 75 MW online on schedule at Polaris Forge 1, reaching 175 MW of live capacity. This shows execution strength and supports revenue growth, lifting investor confidence and the stock price.

    This operational milestone demonstrates the company's ability to deliver on its backlog, a key driver of the stock's momentum.

  • Fiscal Q3 Revenue Surges 139%, Adjusted EBITDA $44.1M Applied Digital reported Q3 revenue of $126.6 million, up 139% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $44.1 million. Strong financial performance signals accelerating demand and improving profitability, pushing the stock higher.

    This is a new earnings report that confirms the company's rapid growth and is a fundamental driver of the stock's recent rise.

  • Montana-Dakota Utilities Signs Power Agreement for Polaris Forge 3 Montana-Dakota Utilities agreed to supply power to Applied Digital's proposed 430 MW AI factory in North Dakota. This secures critical infrastructure for future growth, boosting investor confidence in the company's expansion plans.

    This is a new agreement that de-risks the power supply for a major future campus, supporting the growth narrative.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

FICO's mortgage monopoly ends as VantageScore approved, stock pressured

  • Mortgage scoring monopoly ends The FHFA approved VantageScore 4.0 for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, ending FICO's long-held monopoly in mortgage scoring. This opens the door for lenders to use a rival, threatening a key profit source.

    This is the most significant new competitive and regulatory threat that pressured the stock.

  • Pricing grid and bi-merge risk A unified pricing grid lets lenders bypass FICO, and a possible bi-merge requirement could further weaken demand for FICO scores. These changes could reduce FICO's pricing power and market share in mortgages.

    These are new competitive pressures that directly threaten FICO's revenue model.

  • Record revenue and profit FICO reported record Q3 revenue of $674 million, up 26%, with profit up 41% and raised guidance. This shows strong underlying business performance despite the emerging threats.

    This is a new positive financial result that contrasts with the negative regulatory news.

  • Mortgage moat strengthened FICO Score 10T was embedded in Optimal Blue, strengthening its mortgage moat, and FICO launched a Mortgage Direct License Program. The FHFA director also signaled no deliberate targeting of the company.

    These are new positive developments that support FICO's competitive position.

September 2026
▼3▲1

FHFA Opens Mortgage Scoring to VantageScore, Threatening FICO's Monopoly

  • FHFA ends FICO's mortgage scoring exclusivity The Federal Housing Finance Agency approved VantageScore 4.0 for all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, ending FICO's long-held monopoly in mortgage credit scoring. This introduces direct competition, threatening FICO's market share and pricing power. The stock fell sharply on the news.

    This is the core new event that directly threatens FICO's mortgage scoring business and triggered the stock decline.

  • Unified pricing grid lets VantageScore bypass FICO FHFA will consolidate Fannie and Freddie pricing into one grid that includes VantageScore, allowing lenders to use VantageScore for loan-level pricing and approval without FICO. This removes FICO's fee leverage and could accelerate share loss.

    This structural change intensifies competition and directly undermines FICO's ability to charge premium fees.

  • Potential bi-merge requirement adds pressure FHFA may require lenders to use only two credit bureaus instead of three for mortgages sold to Fannie and Freddie. This could reduce demand for traditional tri-merge reports and further weaken FICO's position, as it may favor VantageScore.

    This is a new regulatory threat that compounds the competitive pressure on FICO's mortgage scoring business.

  • FICO launches direct license program; regulator not targeting FICO FICO launched a Mortgage Direct License Program and FHFA Director Pulte signaled he is not purposefully targeting the company. This provided a slight reprieve, but the overall competitive and regulatory threats remain dominant.

    This is a new positive development that offers some counterbalance to the negative news, though it does not reverse the competitive threat.

Latest
▼3▲1

FHFA Opens Mortgage Scoring to VantageScore, Threatening FICO's Monopoly

  • FHFA ends FICO's mortgage scoring exclusivity The Federal Housing Finance Agency approved VantageScore 4.0 for all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, ending FICO's long-held monopoly in mortgage credit scoring. This introduces direct competition, threatening FICO's market share and pricing power. The stock fell sharply on the news.

    This is the core new event that directly threatens FICO's mortgage scoring business and triggered the stock decline.

  • Unified pricing grid lets VantageScore bypass FICO FHFA will consolidate Fannie and Freddie pricing into one grid that includes VantageScore, allowing lenders to use VantageScore for loan-level pricing and approval without FICO. This removes FICO's fee leverage and could accelerate share loss.

    This structural change intensifies competition and directly undermines FICO's ability to charge premium fees.

  • Potential bi-merge requirement adds pressure FHFA may require lenders to use only two credit bureaus instead of three for mortgages sold to Fannie and Freddie. This could reduce demand for traditional tri-merge reports and further weaken FICO's position, as it may favor VantageScore.

    This is a new regulatory threat that compounds the competitive pressure on FICO's mortgage scoring business.

  • FICO launches direct license program; regulator not targeting FICO FICO launched a Mortgage Direct License Program and FHFA Director Pulte signaled he is not purposefully targeting the company. This provided a slight reprieve, but the overall competitive and regulatory threats remain dominant.

    This is a new positive development that offers some counterbalance to the negative news, though it does not reverse the competitive threat.

July 2026
▲2▼2

FICO's mortgage moat deepens, but a delayed licensing plan and a rival score spook investors

  • FICO Score 10T embedded in Optimal Blue FICO's new mortgage score is now built into Optimal Blue, the platform used by most big U.S. mortgage lenders. That makes FICO harder to replace and should keep demand strong, supporting the stock price over time.

    This is a new event that strengthens FICO's competitive position and future revenue.

  • Record Q3 profit and raised guidance FICO reported record quarterly revenue of $674 million, up 26%, and profit jumped 41% per share. It raised its full-year outlook, citing a better mortgage market. Strong results and higher guidance push the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly moves the stock.

  • Revenue miss and delayed Direct Licensing Program Despite record profit, revenue fell short of analyst estimates, and FICO delayed its Direct Licensing Program. That delay and the miss disappointed investors, sending shares down sharply. The market worries about future growth timing.

    This is the main new negative event that caused the stock to drop.

  • FHFA rule opens mortgage scoring to a lower-cost rival A new FHFA rule allows a cheaper competitor into mortgage scoring, threatening FICO's pricing power in its biggest market. This regulatory pressure is a real counterweight, keeping a lid on the stock even as profits grow.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could erode FICO's long-term cash flow.

▲2▼2

FICO's mortgage moat deepens, but a delayed licensing plan and a rival score spook investors

  • FICO Score 10T embedded in Optimal Blue FICO's new mortgage score is now built into Optimal Blue, the platform used by most big U.S. mortgage lenders. That makes FICO harder to replace and should keep demand strong, supporting the stock price over time.

    This is a new event that strengthens FICO's competitive position and future revenue.

  • Record Q3 profit and raised guidance FICO reported record quarterly revenue of $674 million, up 26%, and profit jumped 41% per share. It raised its full-year outlook, citing a better mortgage market. Strong results and higher guidance push the stock up.

    This is the core new financial result that directly moves the stock.

  • Revenue miss and delayed Direct Licensing Program Despite record profit, revenue fell short of analyst estimates, and FICO delayed its Direct Licensing Program. That delay and the miss disappointed investors, sending shares down sharply. The market worries about future growth timing.

    This is the main new negative event that caused the stock to drop.

  • FHFA rule opens mortgage scoring to a lower-cost rival A new FHFA rule allows a cheaper competitor into mortgage scoring, threatening FICO's pricing power in its biggest market. This regulatory pressure is a real counterweight, keeping a lid on the stock even as profits grow.

    This is a new regulatory threat that could erode FICO's long-term cash flow.

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