Cattle prices swing on trade policy and supply shifts
Brazilian beef tariff exemption The U.S. exempted Brazilian beef from a proposed 25% tariff, allowing more foreign beef into the country. That adds to overall beef supply and reduces demand for domestic cattle, pushing feeder cattle futures down.
This new policy directly increases beef supply, pressuring feeder cattle prices.
Mexican cattle imports to resume The USDA plans to reopen the border to Mexican cattle imports by late August. More cattle coming in means a larger supply of feeders, which lowers prices as buyers have more options.
This new supply increase is a major bearish factor for feeder cattle futures.
DOJ investigation into meat packers President Trump asked the Justice Department to investigate meat packers for price manipulation. The market saw this as positive because it could lead to fairer cattle prices for producers, supporting feeder cattle futures.
This new regulatory action could improve cattle prices by addressing packer collusion.
Supply data shows tighter future supplies Recent Cattle on Feed reports show fewer placements and a smaller calf crop, pointing to tighter cattle supplies ahead. That supports higher prices. However, on-feed numbers are still up from last year, which limits the upside.
This new data highlights the ongoing tug-of-war between tight future supply and current ample supply.