← The Home Depot overview

The Home Depot vs Home Product Center: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

The Home Depot Inc (HD)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

Home Depot resilient despite frozen housing and tariff drag

  • Solid Q2 results and dividend raise Home Depot beat Q2 estimates with 5.7% revenue growth and 1.7% comparable sales, raised its dividend for the 156th time, and resumed buybacks, showing steady execution despite a tough housing market.

    These results and shareholder returns were the main positive forces on the stock this quarter.

  • One-time tariff refund and cost cuts A $730 million one-time tariff refund boosted profit, while cost cuts and nationwide three-hour delivery improved efficiency and service, helping offset broader margin pressure from tariffs.

    This one-time gain and operational improvements directly lifted reported earnings and investor sentiment.

  • Frozen housing market and high rates Housing turnover stayed at historic lows and mortgage rates hit 7.45%, keeping big-ticket remodels weak. A Wolfe downgrade cited lock-in effects and rate risk, weighing on the stock.

    These housing and rate headwinds were the primary drag on demand and the stock price.

  • CEO medical leave adds uncertainty CEO Ted Decker’s medical leave introduced leadership uncertainty, while slowing consumer spending and tariff margin pressure added to near-term risks for the company.

    The unexpected CEO absence and macro pressures created uncertainty that weighed on the stock.

September 2026
▲2▼2

Home Depot's core demand stays frozen as mortgage rates hit a three-year high

  • Frozen housing market keeps big-ticket renovation demand weak Home Depot's CFO said housing turnover is stuck at historic lows for a fourth year, so customers are sticking to small repairs instead of big remodels. That directly limits sales growth in the company's most profitable categories and keeps a lid on the stock.

    This is the central demand problem weighing on HD and explains why sales remain under pressure.

  • Mortgage rates at 7.45% squeeze renovation budgets The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.45%, the highest in three years, adding thousands in yearly interest costs for buyers. With more income going to housing, there is less left for kitchen remodels and other big projects that drive Home Depot's sales.

    Rising rates are a fresh, concrete headwind that makes the frozen-housing problem worse for HD.

  • Professional contractor business keeps growing and gaining share Home Depot's sales to professional contractors grew again and beat do-it-yourself sales, helped by delivery improvements and its SRS acquisition reaching 90% of stores. Pros spend more per job, so this steady growth partly offsets the weak consumer side.

    This is the main positive force supporting HD's sales while the housing market is frozen.

  • Broad category strength and cost cuts support profit and buybacks Home Depot beat its own forecast with 13 of 16 product categories growing, and management plans billions in cost savings, a return to about 2x debt-to-EBITDA by mid-2027, and resumed share repurchases. That supports earnings per share even with soft sales.

    It shows the company's financial health and capital returns can lift the stock despite weak housing.

Latest
▲2▼2

Home Depot's core demand stays frozen as mortgage rates hit a three-year high

  • Frozen housing market keeps big-ticket renovation demand weak Home Depot's CFO said housing turnover is stuck at historic lows for a fourth year, so customers are sticking to small repairs instead of big remodels. That directly limits sales growth in the company's most profitable categories and keeps a lid on the stock.

    This is the central demand problem weighing on HD and explains why sales remain under pressure.

  • Mortgage rates at 7.45% squeeze renovation budgets The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.45%, the highest in three years, adding thousands in yearly interest costs for buyers. With more income going to housing, there is less left for kitchen remodels and other big projects that drive Home Depot's sales.

    Rising rates are a fresh, concrete headwind that makes the frozen-housing problem worse for HD.

  • Professional contractor business keeps growing and gaining share Home Depot's sales to professional contractors grew again and beat do-it-yourself sales, helped by delivery improvements and its SRS acquisition reaching 90% of stores. Pros spend more per job, so this steady growth partly offsets the weak consumer side.

    This is the main positive force supporting HD's sales while the housing market is frozen.

  • Broad category strength and cost cuts support profit and buybacks Home Depot beat its own forecast with 13 of 16 product categories growing, and management plans billions in cost savings, a return to about 2x debt-to-EBITDA by mid-2027, and resumed share repurchases. That supports earnings per share even with soft sales.

    It shows the company's financial health and capital returns can lift the stock despite weak housing.

July 2026
▲2▼2

Home Depot's profit gets a one-time tariff-refund boost as housing stays weak

  • One-time tariff refunds inflate profit Home Depot got $730 million back after the Supreme Court struck down old tariffs, using $685 million to lower costs. That lifted reported profit, but it is a one-time boost, not stronger customer demand, so investors should not expect it to repeat.

    This is the biggest new force behind HD's recent profit beat and explains why reported earnings look better than the underlying business.

  • Analyst downgrade on housing lock-in and rate risk Wolfe Research downgraded Home Depot to Peer Perform, citing the lock-in effect that keeps homeowners from moving, weaker returns from big Pro acquisitions, and rising rate risks. It prefers Lowe's, which can pressure HD shares as some investors rotate away.

    A fresh analyst downgrade directly changes how some investors value HD and highlights specific worries beyond daily price moves.

  • Improving housing affordability could revive renovation demand Lennar cut home prices to a nine-year low and mortgage rates dipped to 6.47%, making homes more affordable. Cheaper housing usually leads to more home sales and then bigger renovation projects, which would help Home Depot's sales over time.

    This points to a potential turn in the housing cycle, the main long-term driver of Home Depot's demand.

  • Tariff deadline pushed up import costs Retailers rushed Chinese imports before a July 24 tariff deadline, expecting costs to rise on furniture and appliances. Higher tariffs would squeeze Home Depot's margins unless it raises prices, which could hurt sales to budget-conscious customers.

    This is a new cost pressure that could offset the benefit of the tariff refunds and weigh on future profits.

▲2▼2

Home Depot's profit gets a one-time tariff-refund boost as housing stays weak

  • One-time tariff refunds inflate profit Home Depot got $730 million back after the Supreme Court struck down old tariffs, using $685 million to lower costs. That lifted reported profit, but it is a one-time boost, not stronger customer demand, so investors should not expect it to repeat.

    This is the biggest new force behind HD's recent profit beat and explains why reported earnings look better than the underlying business.

  • Analyst downgrade on housing lock-in and rate risk Wolfe Research downgraded Home Depot to Peer Perform, citing the lock-in effect that keeps homeowners from moving, weaker returns from big Pro acquisitions, and rising rate risks. It prefers Lowe's, which can pressure HD shares as some investors rotate away.

    A fresh analyst downgrade directly changes how some investors value HD and highlights specific worries beyond daily price moves.

  • Improving housing affordability could revive renovation demand Lennar cut home prices to a nine-year low and mortgage rates dipped to 6.47%, making homes more affordable. Cheaper housing usually leads to more home sales and then bigger renovation projects, which would help Home Depot's sales over time.

    This points to a potential turn in the housing cycle, the main long-term driver of Home Depot's demand.

  • Tariff deadline pushed up import costs Retailers rushed Chinese imports before a July 24 tariff deadline, expecting costs to rise on furniture and appliances. Higher tariffs would squeeze Home Depot's margins unless it raises prices, which could hurt sales to budget-conscious customers.

    This is a new cost pressure that could offset the benefit of the tariff refunds and weigh on future profits.

August 2026
▲2▼1

Home Depot beats Q2, dividend up, delivery push; housing still drags

  • Q2 beat and dividend raise Home Depot beat second-quarter expectations with revenue up 5.7% to $47.9 billion and earnings of $4.92 a share. Comparable sales rose 1.7%, the best since late 2022, and the company raised its dividend for the 156th straight time. Beating expectations and returning cash supports the stock.

    The earnings beat and dividend increase are the core new positive events driving HD this period.

  • Nationwide express delivery rollout Home Depot launched three-hour-or-less delivery from its 2,300-plus stores nationwide, with no membership required. This uses stores as local warehouses to serve contractors and do-it-yourself customers faster, which can lift sales and compete better with rivals, a new growth driver.

    This is a new operational initiative that could support future sales and competitive position.

  • Housing and consumer headwinds persist High mortgage rates and weak housing turnover kept big renovation projects depressed, and July housing starts fell below expectations. Goldman Sachs also warned consumer spending growth will slow sharply as tax refund boosts fade. These forces cap how much Home Depot's sales can grow.

    These are the main counterweights explaining why HD's outlook remains muted despite the beat.

  • CEO medical leave adds uncertainty CEO Ted Decker took a temporary medical leave six days before earnings, with no return date. The board named interim leaders, and the stock fell 1.9% on the news. Leadership uncertainty can weigh on shares, though the company still delivered strong results under interim management.

    This is a new event that created short-term uncertainty but did not derail quarterly results.

▲2▼1

Home Depot beats Q2, dividend up, delivery push; housing still drags

  • Q2 beat and dividend raise Home Depot beat second-quarter expectations with revenue up 5.7% to $47.9 billion and earnings of $4.92 a share. Comparable sales rose 1.7%, the best since late 2022, and the company raised its dividend for the 156th straight time. Beating expectations and returning cash supports the stock.

    The earnings beat and dividend increase are the core new positive events driving HD this period.

  • Nationwide express delivery rollout Home Depot launched three-hour-or-less delivery from its 2,300-plus stores nationwide, with no membership required. This uses stores as local warehouses to serve contractors and do-it-yourself customers faster, which can lift sales and compete better with rivals, a new growth driver.

    This is a new operational initiative that could support future sales and competitive position.

  • Housing and consumer headwinds persist High mortgage rates and weak housing turnover kept big renovation projects depressed, and July housing starts fell below expectations. Goldman Sachs also warned consumer spending growth will slow sharply as tax refund boosts fade. These forces cap how much Home Depot's sales can grow.

    These are the main counterweights explaining why HD's outlook remains muted despite the beat.

  • CEO medical leave adds uncertainty CEO Ted Decker took a temporary medical leave six days before earnings, with no return date. The board named interim leaders, and the stock fell 1.9% on the news. Leadership uncertainty can weigh on shares, though the company still delivered strong results under interim management.

    This is a new event that created short-term uncertainty but did not derail quarterly results.

Home Product Center Public Company Limited (HMPRO.BK)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

HMPRO Q3: Profit Beat, Solar Subsidy, Upgrade, But Flood Boost May Fade

  • Q2 profit beat ends five-quarter slump Q2 net profit rose 14% to 1.59 billion baht, beating forecasts—its first growth in five quarters—on cooling-appliance sales and improved gross margin (27.7%).

    This is the key new financial result that drove positive sentiment in Q3.

  • Government solar subsidy to lift demand A government plan to subsidize rooftop solar (50,000 baht per household) should lift demand, and HMPRO was named a value stock amid baht weakness.

    New policy catalyst expected to boost sales and investor interest.

  • Post-flood repair demand and analyst upgrade Post-flood repair demand, a CGSI upgrade from Sell to Buy, a 5.5% 2027 dividend yield, and recovering construction permits (up 10.6% and 7.7%) all support growth.

    These new developments provided additional positive momentum for the stock.

  • Flood boost seen as limited and short-lived Risks: brokers view flood damage as limited (0.1–0.3% of GDP) and short-lived, so the boost may fade; broader market pressure from tech worries and rising U.S. bond yields persists.

    This is the main counterweight that could cap gains or reverse them.

September 2026
▲4

Flood recovery demand and a major broker upgrade lift HMPRO

  • Post-flood repair demand to boost sales Bangkok's late-September floods are receding, and multiple brokers (Kasikorn, InnovestX, Globlex, Trinity, DBS Vickers, BLS) name HMPRO as a winner from home repair and restoration demand. This should lift sales of building materials and home products, especially in Q4 2026, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly drives future revenue for HMPRO.

  • CGSI upgrades HMPRO from Sell to Buy CGS International Securities raised its rating on HMPRO from Sell to Buy and upgraded the Thai retail sector to Overweight, citing the clearest demand recovery in three years. It also noted a 5.5% dividend yield for 2027. This directly boosts investor confidence and buying interest.

    A major broker upgrade is a strong new catalyst that can move the stock price.

  • Construction recovery signals stronger demand CGSI reported that construction area permitted rose 10.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and 7.7% in Q2 2026, ending 11 straight quarters of decline. This suggests home improvement product sales will recover in Q4 2026 and 2027, supporting HMPRO's revenue growth.

    This is new evidence of a turning point in the home improvement market, which underpins HMPRO's business.

  • Flood impact seen as short-lived, buy-on-dip advised Brokers including InnovestX and BLS say the flood's economic damage is limited (0.1-0.3% of GDP) and short-lived, recommending investors buy domestic stocks on dips. HMPRO is repeatedly named in the Recovery & Repair theme, which may attract buyers.

    This reinforces the positive sentiment and suggests limited downside from the flood, encouraging investment.

Latest
▲4

Flood recovery demand and a major broker upgrade lift HMPRO

  • Post-flood repair demand to boost sales Bangkok's late-September floods are receding, and multiple brokers (Kasikorn, InnovestX, Globlex, Trinity, DBS Vickers, BLS) name HMPRO as a winner from home repair and restoration demand. This should lift sales of building materials and home products, especially in Q4 2026, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new event of the period and directly drives future revenue for HMPRO.

  • CGSI upgrades HMPRO from Sell to Buy CGS International Securities raised its rating on HMPRO from Sell to Buy and upgraded the Thai retail sector to Overweight, citing the clearest demand recovery in three years. It also noted a 5.5% dividend yield for 2027. This directly boosts investor confidence and buying interest.

    A major broker upgrade is a strong new catalyst that can move the stock price.

  • Construction recovery signals stronger demand CGSI reported that construction area permitted rose 10.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and 7.7% in Q2 2026, ending 11 straight quarters of decline. This suggests home improvement product sales will recover in Q4 2026 and 2027, supporting HMPRO's revenue growth.

    This is new evidence of a turning point in the home improvement market, which underpins HMPRO's business.

  • Flood impact seen as short-lived, buy-on-dip advised Brokers including InnovestX and BLS say the flood's economic damage is limited (0.1-0.3% of GDP) and short-lived, recommending investors buy domestic stocks on dips. HMPRO is repeatedly named in the Recovery & Repair theme, which may attract buyers.

    This reinforces the positive sentiment and suggests limited downside from the flood, encouraging investment.

August 2026
▲3

HMPRO profit rebound and solar subsidy plan drive gains

  • Q2 profit beats forecasts, first growth in five quarters HMPRO's Q2 2026 net profit rose 14% to 1.59 billion baht, beating expectations, as sales of cooling appliances grew and gross margin improved to 27.7% from 25.8%. This was the first year-on-year profit growth in five quarters, and a broker kept a buy rating with a 7.70 baht target.

    The profit beat is the main company-specific force behind the stock's move and a genuine turnaround signal.

  • Government solar rooftop subsidy to lift household demand The Finance Ministry plans to give households 50,000 baht each toward rooftop solar installation, with registration opening mid-October 2026 and a budget of 50 billion baht. Analysts name HMPRO as a retail channel that should sell more solar kits and related home products, supporting future revenue.

    This is a new, large policy catalyst that directly points to higher demand for HMPRO's products.

  • HMPRO named a value stock as baht weakens Pie Securities listed HMPRO among 13 value stocks to hold, citing retail names that benefit from a weaker baht. The call came as global tech worries and rising U.S. bond yields pressured markets, pushing investors toward cheaper defensive stocks. This supports demand for HMPRO shares.

    It shows a fresh analyst endorsement that can draw buyers to the stock in a shaky market.

▲3

HMPRO profit rebound and solar subsidy plan drive gains

  • Q2 profit beats forecasts, first growth in five quarters HMPRO's Q2 2026 net profit rose 14% to 1.59 billion baht, beating expectations, as sales of cooling appliances grew and gross margin improved to 27.7% from 25.8%. This was the first year-on-year profit growth in five quarters, and a broker kept a buy rating with a 7.70 baht target.

    The profit beat is the main company-specific force behind the stock's move and a genuine turnaround signal.

  • Government solar rooftop subsidy to lift household demand The Finance Ministry plans to give households 50,000 baht each toward rooftop solar installation, with registration opening mid-October 2026 and a budget of 50 billion baht. Analysts name HMPRO as a retail channel that should sell more solar kits and related home products, supporting future revenue.

    This is a new, large policy catalyst that directly points to higher demand for HMPRO's products.

  • HMPRO named a value stock as baht weakens Pie Securities listed HMPRO among 13 value stocks to hold, citing retail names that benefit from a weaker baht. The call came as global tech worries and rising U.S. bond yields pressured markets, pushing investors toward cheaper defensive stocks. This supports demand for HMPRO shares.

    It shows a fresh analyst endorsement that can draw buyers to the stock in a shaky market.

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