Hershey vs Archer-Daniels-Midland: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Hershey Co (HSY)

Q3 202617 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

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Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.
This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.
Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.
It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.
Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.
It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.
Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.
It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

July 202617 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.
This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.
Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.
It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.
Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.
It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.
Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.
It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

Latest17 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.
This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.
Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.
It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.
Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.
It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.
Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.
It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Q3 202619 Jun – 7 Sep 2026

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ADM Q3: Strong Earnings Offset by Biofuel Waiver Risks

Earnings Surge and Guidance Raise ADM's Q2 profit jumped to $908M, full-year EPS guidance rose to $5.15–$5.60, and key segments like Ag Services and Nutrition posted double-digit profit growth, signaling robust demand.
This is the core positive driver of ADM's performance in Q3, directly boosting investor confidence.
Cost Savings and Capacity Expansion ADM is targeting $500–$750M in cost savings and investing $100M to expand crush capacity, which should improve efficiency and support future growth.
These initiatives show management's focus on operational improvements and long-term growth, key to the bull case.
Regulatory Threat from Biofuel Waivers The EPA's expected doubling of small-refinery biofuel waivers threatens ethanol and soybean oil demand, potentially squeezing ADM's margins and adding policy uncertainty.
This regulatory risk is a major overhang that could hurt ADM's biofuel-related profits and investor sentiment.
Share Price Decline on Cost and Policy Concerns ADM shares fell 7.7% during the quarter as investors worried about expansion costs and policy uncertainty, highlighting market skepticism despite strong earnings.
This reflects the market's negative reaction to risks, showing that not all news was positive for the stock.

August 202612 Aug – 7 Sep 2026

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ADM's biofuel-driven profit surge meets a regulatory threat

ADM raises 2026 profit outlook on strong biofuel and crush results ADM lifted its 2026 earnings forecast to $5.15–$5.60 a share from $4.15–$4.70 after a strong quarter, with segment profit up 75% and oilseed crushing profit up 129%. Higher expected profit makes the stock more attractive to investors.
This is the core positive force behind ADM's price right now.
EPA biofuel waiver expansion threatens ethanol demand The EPA delayed a compliance deadline and is expected to roughly double small-refinery biofuel waivers, which would free up credits and cut demand for ethanol and soybean oil. That would squeeze ADM's ethanol and oilseed margins, a real counterweight to the profit surge.
This is the main risk pulling ADM's price down and balances the positive news.
ADM invests $100 million to expand US oilseed crushing ADM will spend about $100 million to add 700,000 tons of crush capacity at four plants by 2028–2029, within its existing budget. The expansion signals confidence in strong crushing demand and supports future earnings growth.
Shows management is putting money behind the strong crush results, supporting the stock.
ADM targets $500–$750 million in cost savings ADM aims to cut $500–$750 million in costs over three to five years through efficiency and portfolio simplification, having already saved $200 million in 2025. Lower costs would boost profit and support the earnings outlook.
A new plan that improves profitability and adds to the positive story.

Latest12 Aug – 7 Sep 2026

▲3▼1

ADM's biofuel-driven profit surge meets a regulatory threat

ADM raises 2026 profit outlook on strong biofuel and crush results ADM lifted its 2026 earnings forecast to $5.15–$5.60 a share from $4.15–$4.70 after a strong quarter, with segment profit up 75% and oilseed crushing profit up 129%. Higher expected profit makes the stock more attractive to investors.
This is the core positive force behind ADM's price right now.
EPA biofuel waiver expansion threatens ethanol demand The EPA delayed a compliance deadline and is expected to roughly double small-refinery biofuel waivers, which would free up credits and cut demand for ethanol and soybean oil. That would squeeze ADM's ethanol and oilseed margins, a real counterweight to the profit surge.
This is the main risk pulling ADM's price down and balances the positive news.
ADM invests $100 million to expand US oilseed crushing ADM will spend about $100 million to add 700,000 tons of crush capacity at four plants by 2028–2029, within its existing budget. The expansion signals confidence in strong crushing demand and supports future earnings growth.
Shows management is putting money behind the strong crush results, supporting the stock.
ADM targets $500–$750 million in cost savings ADM aims to cut $500–$750 million in costs over three to five years through efficiency and portfolio simplification, having already saved $200 million in 2025. Lower costs would boost profit and support the earnings outlook.
A new plan that improves profitability and adds to the positive story.

July 202619 Jun – 6 Aug 2026

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ADM's profit surges on strong exports and cost cuts, but expansion raises valuation concerns

Q2 profit surges to $908 million, full-year guidance raised ADM reported second-quarter net income of $908 million, up from $219 million a year earlier, with revenue rising 7.2% to $22.7 billion. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60, signaling confidence in continued earnings growth.
This is the latest earnings result and directly shows the company's strong financial performance, which supports a higher stock price.
Ag Services profit jumps 26% on strong exports to China Ag Services operating profit rose 26% to $200 million, driven by higher soybean and sorghum shipments to China and robust U.S. corn exports. This improvement, after a weak prior-year quarter, shows ADM's core trading and logistics business is recovering.
This explains a key driver of ADM's earnings growth and highlights the company's ability to benefit from global trade flows.
Cost savings and Nutrition growth boost earnings outlook ADM is on track for $500–$750 million in cost savings over three to five years through automation and efficiency. Its Nutrition segment profit rose 42% year over year, with management expecting further growth in 2026.
These initiatives improve profitability and support long-term earnings growth, which can lift the stock price.
Oilseed crush expansion and new COO hire trigger 7.7% share drop ADM announced a major North American oilseed crush expansion and hired a new COO, but shares fell 7.7% as investors worried about near-term costs and policy risks. The expansion aims to meet renewable fuel demand but adds uncertainty.
This shows a recent negative market reaction to strategic investments, highlighting a counterweight to the positive earnings news.

19 Jun – 6 Aug 2026

▲3

ADM's profit surges on strong exports and cost cuts, but expansion raises valuation concerns

Q2 profit surges to $908 million, full-year guidance raised ADM reported second-quarter net income of $908 million, up from $219 million a year earlier, with revenue rising 7.2% to $22.7 billion. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60, signaling confidence in continued earnings growth.
This is the latest earnings result and directly shows the company's strong financial performance, which supports a higher stock price.
Ag Services profit jumps 26% on strong exports to China Ag Services operating profit rose 26% to $200 million, driven by higher soybean and sorghum shipments to China and robust U.S. corn exports. This improvement, after a weak prior-year quarter, shows ADM's core trading and logistics business is recovering.
This explains a key driver of ADM's earnings growth and highlights the company's ability to benefit from global trade flows.
Cost savings and Nutrition growth boost earnings outlook ADM is on track for $500–$750 million in cost savings over three to five years through automation and efficiency. Its Nutrition segment profit rose 42% year over year, with management expecting further growth in 2026.
These initiatives improve profitability and support long-term earnings growth, which can lift the stock price.
Oilseed crush expansion and new COO hire trigger 7.7% share drop ADM announced a major North American oilseed crush expansion and hired a new COO, but shares fell 7.7% as investors worried about near-term costs and policy risks. The expansion aims to meet renewable fuel demand but adds uncertainty.
This shows a recent negative market reaction to strategic investments, highlighting a counterweight to the positive earnings news.