Hershey vs Sugar No.11 Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Hershey Co (HSY)

Q3 202617 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.
This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.
Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.
It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.
Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.
It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.
Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.
It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

July 202617 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.
This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.
Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.
It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.
Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.
It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.
Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.
It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

Latest17 Jun – 30 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Hershey's Q2 Beat Clashes With Soft Demand Warning

Fed rate hike signal pressures dividend stocks The Fed held rates but hinted at a future hike, pushing bond yields up. That makes Hershey's dividend less attractive compared to safer bonds, so the stock fell 5%. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs for the debt-heavy food sector.
This monetary shift directly hit HSY's price and remains a key force behind its valuation.
Salty snacks surge on LesserEvil and organic growth Hershey's salty snacks sales jumped 26% to $350 million, driven by the LesserEvil acquisition and strong organic gains. Retail sales grew nearly 10%, gaining market share. This diversification reduces reliance on chocolate and supports overall growth.
It shows a major new growth engine that can offset weakness in core confectionery.
Q1 beat and easing cocoa costs boost margins Hershey's Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1 billion, with adjusted EPS up 12.4% and operating margin expanding 7.4 points. Pricing offset cocoa and tariff costs, and cocoa prices have fallen from above $10,000 to near $5,000 per ton, which could further aid margins.
It highlights improving profitability and a key cost tailwind that can lift earnings.
Q2 revenue warning followed by earnings beat Hershey warned of softer North American confectionery demand, but then reported Q2 EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $2.79 billion, both beating estimates. The mixed signals leave investors weighing near-term demand weakness against the company's ability to outperform expectations.
It captures the latest tug-of-war between demand concerns and financial results that will drive HSY's near-term direction.

Sugar No.11 Futures (SUGAR.COMM)

Q3 202626 Jun – 4 Oct 2026

▲4

Sugar surged on El Niño drought and global deficits

El Niño drought cuts output El Niño-driven drought slashed sugarcane output in Brazil, India, and Thailand, tightening global supplies and pushing sugar futures sharply higher.
This is the primary new force driving prices up this quarter.
Brazil diverts cane to ethanol Brazilian mills diverted more cane to ethanol production, with June sugar output down 26.3%, reducing global sugar availability and supporting prices.
A key new supply-side factor that tightened the market.
India cuts import duty to zero India eliminated its sugar import tax and may import 2–3 million tonnes, signalling tight domestic supplies and adding to global demand.
A new policy move that increased import demand and bullish sentiment.
Speculative funds flip bullish Speculative funds turned bullish, buying about 350,000 sugar contracts, which amplified the price rally through increased financial demand.
A new capital flow that reinforced upward price momentum.

September 202626 Aug – 4 Oct 2026

▲4

Sugar Soars on El Niño Drought and India's Import Shift

El Niño drought cuts global sugar supply El Niño has caused severe drought in key growing regions, especially India and Brazil, reducing sugar output. India's production may fall to 29-31 million tonnes, and Brazil's June output dropped 26.3% year-over-year. Lower supply pushes sugar prices up.
This is the core supply shock driving the price rally.
India becomes a sugar importer India, usually a major exporter, cut its import tax to zero and may need to import 2-3 million tonnes next year. This tightens global supplies and adds demand, pushing prices higher.
India's shift from exporter to importer is a major bullish demand-side factor.
Speculative funds turn bullish Speculative traders flipped from betting on lower prices to betting on higher prices, buying about 350,000 contracts in a month. This buying pressure helped drive the price rally.
Speculative positioning amplifies the price move and reflects market sentiment.
EU sugar production forecast to drop 19% The European Commission expects EU sugar production to fall 19% next season due to bad weather. This adds to global supply worries and supports higher prices.
EU is a major producer, and its output decline adds to the global deficit.

Latest26 Aug – 4 Oct 2026

▲4

Sugar Soars on El Niño Drought and India's Import Shift

El Niño drought cuts global sugar supply El Niño has caused severe drought in key growing regions, especially India and Brazil, reducing sugar output. India's production may fall to 29-31 million tonnes, and Brazil's June output dropped 26.3% year-over-year. Lower supply pushes sugar prices up.
This is the core supply shock driving the price rally.
India becomes a sugar importer India, usually a major exporter, cut its import tax to zero and may need to import 2-3 million tonnes next year. This tightens global supplies and adds demand, pushing prices higher.
India's shift from exporter to importer is a major bullish demand-side factor.
Speculative funds turn bullish Speculative traders flipped from betting on lower prices to betting on higher prices, buying about 350,000 contracts in a month. This buying pressure helped drive the price rally.
Speculative positioning amplifies the price move and reflects market sentiment.
EU sugar production forecast to drop 19% The European Commission expects EU sugar production to fall 19% next season due to bad weather. This adds to global supply worries and supports higher prices.
EU is a major producer, and its output decline adds to the global deficit.

August 202630 Jul – 20 Aug 2026

▲3

Sugar Rallies on El Niño Supply Fears, Deficit Forecasts, Record Market Interest

El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply The chance of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, likely cutting rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Smaller harvests mean less sugar available, pushing prices up. This is the biggest force behind the recent rally.
It is the main new supply threat driving prices higher.
Brazil Sugar Production Plunges 26% Brazil's Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% in June from a year earlier, as mills diverted more cane to ethanol. This sharp drop tightened global supply and helped push prices to multi-month highs.
It is a concrete new data point showing major supply loss.
Analysts Forecast Global Sugar Deficits Major analysts now expect a global sugar deficit for 2026/27, reversing earlier surplus views. A deficit means demand exceeds supply, which supports higher prices. Forecasts range from 300,000 to 3.3 million metric tons.
It shows a broad shift in expert outlook that underpins higher prices.
India May Cut Import Duty, Easing Supply India is considering scrapping its 100% sugar import duty to cool record domestic prices. If done, it could boost global supply and pressure prices down. But it also signals tightness, and global supply remains tight, so the net effect is mixed.
It is a new potential counterweight to the rally that readers should know about.

30 Jul – 20 Aug 2026

▲3

Sugar Rallies on El Niño Supply Fears, Deficit Forecasts, Record Market Interest

El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply The chance of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, likely cutting rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Smaller harvests mean less sugar available, pushing prices up. This is the biggest force behind the recent rally.
It is the main new supply threat driving prices higher.
Brazil Sugar Production Plunges 26% Brazil's Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% in June from a year earlier, as mills diverted more cane to ethanol. This sharp drop tightened global supply and helped push prices to multi-month highs.
It is a concrete new data point showing major supply loss.
Analysts Forecast Global Sugar Deficits Major analysts now expect a global sugar deficit for 2026/27, reversing earlier surplus views. A deficit means demand exceeds supply, which supports higher prices. Forecasts range from 300,000 to 3.3 million metric tons.
It shows a broad shift in expert outlook that underpins higher prices.
India May Cut Import Duty, Easing Supply India is considering scrapping its 100% sugar import duty to cool record domestic prices. If done, it could boost global supply and pressure prices down. But it also signals tightness, and global supply remains tight, so the net effect is mixed.
It is a new potential counterweight to the rally that readers should know about.

July 202626 Jun – 24 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Weather Swings and Oil Drive Sugar; El Niño Keeps Supply Risk Alive

El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply El Niño is confirmed and may be one of the strongest in 75+ years, likely cutting rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand — the top three sugar producers. Less rain means smaller harvests, tightening supply and pushing sugar prices up.
This is the main new bullish force behind the period's price moves.
India's Monsoon Swings from Very Weak to Improving India's monsoon rains were 42% below normal in late June, threatening crops, but improved to 19% below normal by late July. The initial scare lifted prices; the improvement eased supply fears and pulled prices down.
India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, so its monsoon directly swings global supply expectations.
Brazil Diverts More Cane to Ethanol Brazil's sugar output fell 2% as mills sent more cane to ethanol, and the government raised the required ethanol blend in gasoline to 32%. Less cane for sugar means tighter supply, supporting higher sugar prices.
Brazil is the top sugar producer, and its ethanol shift is a key supply-side driver.
Oil Price Swings Pull Sugar Both Ways Crude oil's sharp moves — up to five-week highs then a 4% slump — change ethanol profitability. Higher oil encourages ethanol output (less sugar, prices up); lower oil pushes mills back to sugar (more supply, prices down).
Oil is a major indirect driver of sugar supply via ethanol, and its volatility explains recent price swings.

26 Jun – 24 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

Weather Swings and Oil Drive Sugar; El Niño Keeps Supply Risk Alive

El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply El Niño is confirmed and may be one of the strongest in 75+ years, likely cutting rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand — the top three sugar producers. Less rain means smaller harvests, tightening supply and pushing sugar prices up.
This is the main new bullish force behind the period's price moves.
India's Monsoon Swings from Very Weak to Improving India's monsoon rains were 42% below normal in late June, threatening crops, but improved to 19% below normal by late July. The initial scare lifted prices; the improvement eased supply fears and pulled prices down.
India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, so its monsoon directly swings global supply expectations.
Brazil Diverts More Cane to Ethanol Brazil's sugar output fell 2% as mills sent more cane to ethanol, and the government raised the required ethanol blend in gasoline to 32%. Less cane for sugar means tighter supply, supporting higher sugar prices.
Brazil is the top sugar producer, and its ethanol shift is a key supply-side driver.
Oil Price Swings Pull Sugar Both Ways Crude oil's sharp moves — up to five-week highs then a 4% slump — change ethanol profitability. Higher oil encourages ethanol output (less sugar, prices up); lower oil pushes mills back to sugar (more supply, prices down).
Oil is a major indirect driver of sugar supply via ethanol, and its volatility explains recent price swings.