Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PCL vs Sugar No.11 Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PCL (KSL.BK)

Q3 202626 Jun – 20 Aug 2026

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El Niño threatens global sugar supply El Niño weather pattern raised concerns about sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand, tightening global supply and helping lift sugar prices to multi-month highs.
This is the main new driver of sugar prices in 2026 Q3.
Brazil diverts cane to ethanol, cutting sugar output Brazilian mills diverted more sugarcane to ethanol production, reducing sugar output by 26% and further tightening global supplies, which supported higher prices.
This is a key new supply-side factor that pushed prices up.
Analysts forecast 2026/27 global sugar deficit Analysts projected a global sugar deficit for the 2026/27 season, reinforcing expectations of tight supplies and driving prices to multi-month highs.
This new forecast supported bullish sentiment and price gains.
India's monsoon and import duty policy create uncertainty India's weak monsoon initially lifted prices, but later improvement eased supply fears. India may scrap its 100% import duty to cool domestic prices, potentially boosting global supply and pressuring prices lower.
This captures the key counterweight from Indian weather and policy that could reverse price gains.

August 202630 Jul – 20 Aug 2026

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El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply The chance of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, likely cutting rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Smaller harvests mean less sugar available, pushing prices up. This is the biggest force behind the recent rally.
It is the main new supply threat driving prices higher.
Brazil Sugar Production Plunges 26% Brazil's Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% in June from a year earlier, as mills diverted more cane to ethanol. This sharp drop tightened global supply and helped push prices to multi-month highs.
It is a concrete new data point showing major supply loss.
Analysts Forecast Global Sugar Deficits Major analysts now expect a global sugar deficit for 2026/27, reversing earlier surplus views. A deficit means demand exceeds supply, which supports higher prices. Forecasts range from 300,000 to 3.3 million metric tons.
It shows a broad shift in expert outlook that underpins higher prices.
India May Cut Import Duty, Easing Supply India is considering scrapping its 100% sugar import duty to cool record domestic prices. If done, it could boost global supply and pressure prices down. But it also signals tightness, and global supply remains tight, so the net effect is mixed.
It is a new potential counterweight to the rally that readers should know about.

Latest30 Jul – 20 Aug 2026

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El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply The chance of a super El Niño has risen to 95%, likely cutting rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Smaller harvests mean less sugar available, pushing prices up. This is the biggest force behind the recent rally.
It is the main new supply threat driving prices higher.
Brazil Sugar Production Plunges 26% Brazil's Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% in June from a year earlier, as mills diverted more cane to ethanol. This sharp drop tightened global supply and helped push prices to multi-month highs.
It is a concrete new data point showing major supply loss.
Analysts Forecast Global Sugar Deficits Major analysts now expect a global sugar deficit for 2026/27, reversing earlier surplus views. A deficit means demand exceeds supply, which supports higher prices. Forecasts range from 300,000 to 3.3 million metric tons.
It shows a broad shift in expert outlook that underpins higher prices.
India May Cut Import Duty, Easing Supply India is considering scrapping its 100% sugar import duty to cool record domestic prices. If done, it could boost global supply and pressure prices down. But it also signals tightness, and global supply remains tight, so the net effect is mixed.
It is a new potential counterweight to the rally that readers should know about.

July 202626 Jun – 24 Jul 2026

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El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply El Niño is confirmed and may be one of the strongest in 75+ years, likely cutting rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand — the top three sugar producers. Less rain means smaller harvests, tightening supply and pushing sugar prices up.
This is the main new bullish force behind the period's price moves.
India's Monsoon Swings from Very Weak to Improving India's monsoon rains were 42% below normal in late June, threatening crops, but improved to 19% below normal by late July. The initial scare lifted prices; the improvement eased supply fears and pulled prices down.
India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, so its monsoon directly swings global supply expectations.
Brazil Diverts More Cane to Ethanol Brazil's sugar output fell 2% as mills sent more cane to ethanol, and the government raised the required ethanol blend in gasoline to 32%. Less cane for sugar means tighter supply, supporting higher sugar prices.
Brazil is the top sugar producer, and its ethanol shift is a key supply-side driver.
Oil Price Swings Pull Sugar Both Ways Crude oil's sharp moves — up to five-week highs then a 4% slump — change ethanol profitability. Higher oil encourages ethanol output (less sugar, prices up); lower oil pushes mills back to sugar (more supply, prices down).
Oil is a major indirect driver of sugar supply via ethanol, and its volatility explains recent price swings.

26 Jun – 24 Jul 2026

▲2▼1

El Niño Threatens Global Sugar Supply El Niño is confirmed and may be one of the strongest in 75+ years, likely cutting rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand — the top three sugar producers. Less rain means smaller harvests, tightening supply and pushing sugar prices up.
This is the main new bullish force behind the period's price moves.
India's Monsoon Swings from Very Weak to Improving India's monsoon rains were 42% below normal in late June, threatening crops, but improved to 19% below normal by late July. The initial scare lifted prices; the improvement eased supply fears and pulled prices down.
India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, so its monsoon directly swings global supply expectations.
Brazil Diverts More Cane to Ethanol Brazil's sugar output fell 2% as mills sent more cane to ethanol, and the government raised the required ethanol blend in gasoline to 32%. Less cane for sugar means tighter supply, supporting higher sugar prices.
Brazil is the top sugar producer, and its ethanol shift is a key supply-side driver.
Oil Price Swings Pull Sugar Both Ways Crude oil's sharp moves — up to five-week highs then a 4% slump — change ethanol profitability. Higher oil encourages ethanol output (less sugar, prices up); lower oil pushes mills back to sugar (more supply, prices down).
Oil is a major indirect driver of sugar supply via ethanol, and its volatility explains recent price swings.