← Mercury Systems overview

Mercury Systems vs Goodwin: why the prices moved differently

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Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY)

Q3 2026
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Mercury Systems surged on record orders, but profit miss stung

  • Record bookings and backlog Mercury booked a record $348M in Q1 and $660M in Q4, up 93%, pushing backlog above $1.9B. That means customers ordered far more than the company shipped, a sign of strong future sales.

    Record orders and backlog were the main engine behind the stock's rise.

  • Revenue beats and Palantir partnership Revenue beat expectations in both quarters (Q1: $235.8M, +14.2%; Q4: ~$290M, +9%). A new partnership with Palantir aims to automate Mercury's factories and supply chains for U.S. military programs, which could improve efficiency and margins.

    Revenue growth and the Palantir deal were key positive catalysts during the period.

  • Analyst upgrades and strong stock performance Analysts upgraded the stock, which rose 47% after Q1 results and 44% year-to-date. Management guided FY27 revenue near $1.1B, giving investors confidence in continued growth.

    Upgrades and the stock's sharp rise reflect improving sentiment and forward guidance.

  • Profit miss and margin pressure Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.37 missed estimates and fell 21% year-over-year, while gross margin slipped to 30.6%. Shares dropped over 9% as investors worried that growing sales weren't translating into profits.

    The earnings miss and margin decline were the main negative force, causing a sharp sell-off.

August 2026
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Record Q4 bookings and backlog, but profit miss and margin pressure

  • Record Q4 bookings and backlog Mercury reported record fourth-quarter bookings of $660 million, up 93% from a year ago, and a record backlog above $1.9 billion, up 38%. That means customers are ordering far more than Mercury is shipping, which points to strong future revenue and supports the stock.

    This is the core new fundamental driver of demand and future revenue.

  • Q4 revenue beat and strong FY27 guidance Quarterly revenue of about $290 million beat analyst estimates by over 9%, and Mercury guided fiscal 2027 revenue to approach $1.1 billion with adjusted EBITDA near $200 million. That suggests the order boom is starting to turn into actual sales and profit.

    It shows the demand is converting into revenue and gives a forward profit target.

  • Adjusted earnings miss and margin pressure Despite the revenue beat, adjusted earnings of 37 cents per share missed estimates and fell 21% from a year earlier, while gross margin slipped to 30.6%. The stock fell more than 9% on the day, showing investors are worried about profitability even as sales grow.

    It is the main counterweight explaining why the stock dropped despite strong bookings.

  • Palantir alliance to automate factories Mercury and Palantir announced a strategic alliance to automate material planning and factory operations for U.S. military programs, using Palantir software to remove manual bottlenecks and build a digital twin of the business. Over time this could raise output and improve margins.

    It is a new technology and efficiency catalyst that could lift future profits.

Latest
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Record Q4 bookings and backlog, but profit miss and margin pressure

  • Record Q4 bookings and backlog Mercury reported record fourth-quarter bookings of $660 million, up 93% from a year ago, and a record backlog above $1.9 billion, up 38%. That means customers are ordering far more than Mercury is shipping, which points to strong future revenue and supports the stock.

    This is the core new fundamental driver of demand and future revenue.

  • Q4 revenue beat and strong FY27 guidance Quarterly revenue of about $290 million beat analyst estimates by over 9%, and Mercury guided fiscal 2027 revenue to approach $1.1 billion with adjusted EBITDA near $200 million. That suggests the order boom is starting to turn into actual sales and profit.

    It shows the demand is converting into revenue and gives a forward profit target.

  • Adjusted earnings miss and margin pressure Despite the revenue beat, adjusted earnings of 37 cents per share missed estimates and fell 21% from a year earlier, while gross margin slipped to 30.6%. The stock fell more than 9% on the day, showing investors are worried about profitability even as sales grow.

    It is the main counterweight explaining why the stock dropped despite strong bookings.

  • Palantir alliance to automate factories Mercury and Palantir announced a strategic alliance to automate material planning and factory operations for U.S. military programs, using Palantir software to remove manual bottlenecks and build a digital twin of the business. Over time this could raise output and improve margins.

    It is a new technology and efficiency catalyst that could lift future profits.

July 2026
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Mercury Systems: record bookings, Palantir deal, and strong earnings drive turnaround

  • Record quarterly bookings signal strong demand Mercury reported record quarterly bookings of $348 million, a sign that customers are ordering more of its defense electronics. This strong demand is beginning to convert into faster revenue growth and better profit margins, supporting the stock's big run.

    This is the core fundamental driver of the turnaround and directly explains why the stock is moving.

  • Palantir partnership to automate factories Mercury is teaming up with Palantir to automate its factory operations and supply chain for U.S. military programs, with the government funding the initial work. This could make Mercury more efficient, boost production capacity, and improve profit margins over time.

    A new strategic partnership that could improve operations and profitability, making it a fresh catalyst.

  • Strong Q1 revenue beat and stock surge Mercury's quarterly revenue of $235.8 million beat analyst estimates by 14.2%, the biggest beat among defense peers. The stock has jumped 47% since reporting, reflecting investor excitement about the company's improving performance.

    This is the most recent earnings result that directly triggered a sharp stock price increase.

  • Analyst upgrades and record backlog Analysts are turning more positive, with William Blair reiterating a Buy and Jefferies raising its price target. Mercury's backlog hit a record $1.6 billion, up 17.9% from last year, giving visibility into future revenue and supporting the stock's 44% year-to-date gain.

    Analyst upgrades and a record backlog are key sentiment and fundamental drivers behind the stock's rise.

▲4

Mercury Systems: record bookings, Palantir deal, and strong earnings drive turnaround

  • Record quarterly bookings signal strong demand Mercury reported record quarterly bookings of $348 million, a sign that customers are ordering more of its defense electronics. This strong demand is beginning to convert into faster revenue growth and better profit margins, supporting the stock's big run.

    This is the core fundamental driver of the turnaround and directly explains why the stock is moving.

  • Palantir partnership to automate factories Mercury is teaming up with Palantir to automate its factory operations and supply chain for U.S. military programs, with the government funding the initial work. This could make Mercury more efficient, boost production capacity, and improve profit margins over time.

    A new strategic partnership that could improve operations and profitability, making it a fresh catalyst.

  • Strong Q1 revenue beat and stock surge Mercury's quarterly revenue of $235.8 million beat analyst estimates by 14.2%, the biggest beat among defense peers. The stock has jumped 47% since reporting, reflecting investor excitement about the company's improving performance.

    This is the most recent earnings result that directly triggered a sharp stock price increase.

  • Analyst upgrades and record backlog Analysts are turning more positive, with William Blair reiterating a Buy and Jefferies raising its price target. Mercury's backlog hit a record $1.6 billion, up 17.9% from last year, giving visibility into future revenue and supporting the stock's 44% year-to-date gain.

    Analyst upgrades and a record backlog are key sentiment and fundamental drivers behind the stock's rise.

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