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On vs Steven Madden: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

On Holding Ltd (ONON)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

On Holding's mixed Q3: profit rebound and buyback offset by guidance cut

  • Q2 profit rebound and margin gains Q2 profit returned at CHF 105 million, gross margin rose to 65.4%, and DTC hit a record 45.7% of sales. Asia-Pacific surged 43.1% and apparel jumped 47.7%, showing strong brand momentum.

    This highlights the positive financial results that supported the stock.

  • Investor day targets and buyback lift shares Investor day set midterm targets of high-teens growth, CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, 22% EBITDA margin, and a $1 billion buyback, lifting shares 12%. Signing Mbappé opened football.

    This shows the strategic initiatives that boosted investor confidence.

  • Guidance cut and U.S. wholesale slowdown Q2 sales missed estimates, full-year guidance was cut, and U.S. wholesale slowed sharply with Americas growth decelerating. DICK’S weak outlook and promotional footwear demand weigh on the stock.

    This explains the negative factors that pressured the stock.

  • Tariffs and cost pressures U.S. tariffs and cost pressure weigh on the stock, which remains down sharply this year despite strong results. These external factors add uncertainty to future profitability.

    This highlights the external challenges affecting the company.

September 2026
▲3▼1

On's investor day and Mbappé deal drive growth story

  • Investor day: high-teens growth, 22% margin, $1B buyback On set new midterm targets: high-teens yearly sales growth, at least CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, 22% EBITDA margin, and its first $1 billion share buyback through 2029. The stock jumped about 12% because buybacks shrink share count and these goals signal confidence.

    This is the period's biggest new event and directly explains the stock's jump.

  • Mbappé signing opens football category On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike as global ambassador and product collaborator, and named Thierry Henry director of football. This is On's first big move into football, with products planned for 2027, opening a large new market and challenging Nike and Adidas.

    A new, concrete expansion into a major sport that broadens future demand.

  • DTC and apparel strength underpin premium model Direct-to-consumer sales rose 26% to a record 45.7% of revenue, lifting gross margin to 65.4%, while apparel jumped 47.7% with tennis nearly tripling. Selling more directly to customers is more profitable and reduces reliance on discounting wholesalers.

    Shows the underlying business strength that supports the new targets.

  • Weak athletic demand and tariffs still weigh DICK'S cut its profit outlook, citing a promotional athletic footwear market, and dragged Nike and On shares down with it. On also faces U.S. import tariffs and industry-wide cost pressure, and its stock remains down sharply this year despite strong results.

    The main counterweight: outside demand and cost pressures that could cap gains.

Latest
▲3▼1

On's investor day and Mbappé deal drive growth story

  • Investor day: high-teens growth, 22% margin, $1B buyback On set new midterm targets: high-teens yearly sales growth, at least CHF 5.6 billion sales by 2029, 22% EBITDA margin, and its first $1 billion share buyback through 2029. The stock jumped about 12% because buybacks shrink share count and these goals signal confidence.

    This is the period's biggest new event and directly explains the stock's jump.

  • Mbappé signing opens football category On signed football superstar Kylian Mbappé away from Nike as global ambassador and product collaborator, and named Thierry Henry director of football. This is On's first big move into football, with products planned for 2027, opening a large new market and challenging Nike and Adidas.

    A new, concrete expansion into a major sport that broadens future demand.

  • DTC and apparel strength underpin premium model Direct-to-consumer sales rose 26% to a record 45.7% of revenue, lifting gross margin to 65.4%, while apparel jumped 47.7% with tennis nearly tripling. Selling more directly to customers is more profitable and reduces reliance on discounting wholesalers.

    Shows the underlying business strength that supports the new targets.

  • Weak athletic demand and tariffs still weigh DICK'S cut its profit outlook, citing a promotional athletic footwear market, and dragged Nike and On shares down with it. On also faces U.S. import tariffs and industry-wide cost pressure, and its stock remains down sharply this year despite strong results.

    The main counterweight: outside demand and cost pressures that could cap gains.

July 2026
▲2▼2

On's Q2 sales miss and wholesale slowdown overshadow strong profit and DTC growth

  • Q2 sales miss and guidance cut On reported Q2 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, missing analyst estimates of about CHF 878 million, and trimmed its full-year constant-currency revenue growth outlook to the low-20% range from a prior floor of 23%. The stock fell as much as 22% to a roughly two-year low, as investors worried about slowing growth.

    This is the main new negative event that directly caused the sharp stock drop and changed the growth narrative.

  • U.S. wholesale weakness Wholesale sales grew only 4.8% to CHF 461.9 million, a sharp slowdown from the prior quarter's 25.1% gain, with weakness concentrated in U.S. wholesale where softer sell-through of everyday running products led On to pull back sales to distributors. Americas revenue, over half of total sales, grew just 13% versus 17% in Q1.

    This explains the specific source of the sales miss and why analysts are concerned about future growth visibility.

  • Profit and margin beat Despite the sales miss, On returned to profit with net income of CHF 105 million versus a loss a year earlier, and gross margin expanded to 65.4%. The company raised its full-year gross margin outlook to at least 65%, showing pricing power and cost control even as revenue growth slows.

    This is a key positive counterweight that shows the company's profitability is improving, which could support the stock longer term.

  • Direct-to-consumer and Asia strength Direct-to-consumer sales grew 26% to CHF 388.4 million, a Q2 record 45.7% of total sales, and Asia-Pacific sales surged 43.1% to CHF 170.5 million, now over a fifth of global sales. This shows On's brand remains strong in faster-growing channels and regions, offsetting some wholesale weakness.

    This highlights the parts of the business that are still growing rapidly and could drive future growth.

▲2▼2

On's Q2 sales miss and wholesale slowdown overshadow strong profit and DTC growth

  • Q2 sales miss and guidance cut On reported Q2 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, missing analyst estimates of about CHF 878 million, and trimmed its full-year constant-currency revenue growth outlook to the low-20% range from a prior floor of 23%. The stock fell as much as 22% to a roughly two-year low, as investors worried about slowing growth.

    This is the main new negative event that directly caused the sharp stock drop and changed the growth narrative.

  • U.S. wholesale weakness Wholesale sales grew only 4.8% to CHF 461.9 million, a sharp slowdown from the prior quarter's 25.1% gain, with weakness concentrated in U.S. wholesale where softer sell-through of everyday running products led On to pull back sales to distributors. Americas revenue, over half of total sales, grew just 13% versus 17% in Q1.

    This explains the specific source of the sales miss and why analysts are concerned about future growth visibility.

  • Profit and margin beat Despite the sales miss, On returned to profit with net income of CHF 105 million versus a loss a year earlier, and gross margin expanded to 65.4%. The company raised its full-year gross margin outlook to at least 65%, showing pricing power and cost control even as revenue growth slows.

    This is a key positive counterweight that shows the company's profitability is improving, which could support the stock longer term.

  • Direct-to-consumer and Asia strength Direct-to-consumer sales grew 26% to CHF 388.4 million, a Q2 record 45.7% of total sales, and Asia-Pacific sales surged 43.1% to CHF 170.5 million, now over a fifth of global sales. This shows On's brand remains strong in faster-growing channels and regions, offsetting some wholesale weakness.

    This highlights the parts of the business that are still growing rapidly and could drive future growth.

Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO)

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