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PepsiCo vs Corn Futures: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

PepsiCo Inc (PEP)

Q3 2026
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PepsiCo's mixed quarter: activist stake, weak North America, price hikes ahead

  • Elliott's $4B activist stake Activist investor Elliott took a $4 billion stake in PepsiCo, which could push management to make changes that unlock value, such as cutting costs or selling underperforming brands.

    This is a major new event that could drive the stock by changing investor expectations for strategic action.

  • North America weakness and downgrade PepsiCo's North American snacks and drinks remained weak even after price cuts, leading Citi to downgrade the stock and analysts to lower fair-value estimates, as shoppers switched to cheaper private-label chips.

    This is a key negative driver that directly pressured the stock during the quarter.

  • Coca-Cola's stronger results widen gap Coca-Cola reported stronger results and raised its guidance, widening its premium over PepsiCo and making PepsiCo's problems look company-specific rather than industry-wide, which weighed on PepsiCo shares.

    This competitive contrast is a new development that hurt PepsiCo's relative valuation.

  • New price hikes after cuts failed PepsiCo plans new price increases after earlier cuts failed to boost volumes, risking further volume loss but potentially improving profit margins if consumers accept higher prices.

    This is a new strategic move with uncertain outcome, affecting both pricing and demand.

September 2026
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PepsiCo's snack slump deepens as it bets on price hikes and cost cuts

  • Frito-Lay loses snack volume to cheaper store brands Shoppers are switching from national-brand chips to cheaper store brands after years of price increases. Casey's reported national chip units down 8% while its own chips rose 16%. Frito-Lay is PepsiCo's profit engine, so losing volume there pressures earnings and the stock.

    This is the core demand problem weighing on PepsiCo's most profitable business.

  • PepsiCo to raise snack and drink prices after February cuts failed PepsiCo will raise prices on Doritos, Ruffles, SunChips and some drinks late this year or early 2027, after February cuts of up to 15% failed to revive demand. Higher prices could restore margins, but risk pushing more shoppers to store brands.

    This is the key new pricing decision that will shape PepsiCo's margins and volumes.

  • Productivity savings lift Q2 core operating profit 4% PepsiCo's cost-cutting and pricing drove 4% core operating profit growth in Q2 2026, though margin fell 40 basis points. Management expects record productivity savings and tariff refunds to offset higher second-half costs, supporting profits even as North America stays weak.

    This shows the main offset keeping profits growing despite weak North American demand.

  • PepsiCo named first customer for Tesla electric semi trucks Tesla began high-volume production of its electric Semi, with PepsiCo among the first customers and part of a 2,500-truck order coalition. Electric trucks could cut PepsiCo's long-run fuel and transport costs, helping margins, though the benefit is years away.

    This is a new long-term cost-saving development for PepsiCo's fleet.

Latest
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PepsiCo's snack slump deepens as it bets on price hikes and cost cuts

  • Frito-Lay loses snack volume to cheaper store brands Shoppers are switching from national-brand chips to cheaper store brands after years of price increases. Casey's reported national chip units down 8% while its own chips rose 16%. Frito-Lay is PepsiCo's profit engine, so losing volume there pressures earnings and the stock.

    This is the core demand problem weighing on PepsiCo's most profitable business.

  • PepsiCo to raise snack and drink prices after February cuts failed PepsiCo will raise prices on Doritos, Ruffles, SunChips and some drinks late this year or early 2027, after February cuts of up to 15% failed to revive demand. Higher prices could restore margins, but risk pushing more shoppers to store brands.

    This is the key new pricing decision that will shape PepsiCo's margins and volumes.

  • Productivity savings lift Q2 core operating profit 4% PepsiCo's cost-cutting and pricing drove 4% core operating profit growth in Q2 2026, though margin fell 40 basis points. Management expects record productivity savings and tariff refunds to offset higher second-half costs, supporting profits even as North America stays weak.

    This shows the main offset keeping profits growing despite weak North American demand.

  • PepsiCo named first customer for Tesla electric semi trucks Tesla began high-volume production of its electric Semi, with PepsiCo among the first customers and part of a 2,500-truck order coalition. Electric trucks could cut PepsiCo's long-run fuel and transport costs, helping margins, though the benefit is years away.

    This is a new long-term cost-saving development for PepsiCo's fleet.

August 2026
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PepsiCo's North America slump persists as Coke widens lead; automation and M&A offer offsets

  • Coca-Cola widens the gap with raised guidance and stronger volumes Coca-Cola raised its 2026 outlook after a Q2 beat, while PepsiCo held its guidance steady and reported a 4% drop in North American beverage volumes and flat snack volumes. The contrast makes PepsiCo's problems look company-specific, pressuring PEP shares.

    This is the core competitive dynamic weighing on PEP and is new this period.

  • Legacy consumer brands lose volume as shoppers trade down PepsiCo is among the big packaged-food companies losing volume as shoppers switch to cheaper private-label and newer brands. With little room to raise prices, this squeezes profit growth and keeps a lid on the stock.

    It explains the broad demand headwind behind PepsiCo's weak North America volumes.

  • First-half revenue and profit jump on healthier product pivot PepsiCo's first-half fiscal 2026 revenue rose over 7% to nearly $44 billion, and net income surged to $5.3 billion from a depressed year-ago figure. The improving financials and a 4.1% dividend yield could support a second-half rally.

    It provides the main positive counterweight to the North America weakness.

  • Self-driving trucks deployed on Frito-Lay routes PepsiCo signed a multi-year deal with Gatik to run 41 autonomous box trucks for Frito-Lay distribution. The move aims to cut long-term transport costs and improve logistics efficiency, freeing resources for other investments and supporting profit margins.

    It is a new operational efficiency initiative that could lift future earnings.

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PepsiCo's North America slump persists as Coke widens lead; automation and M&A offer offsets

  • Coca-Cola widens the gap with raised guidance and stronger volumes Coca-Cola raised its 2026 outlook after a Q2 beat, while PepsiCo held its guidance steady and reported a 4% drop in North American beverage volumes and flat snack volumes. The contrast makes PepsiCo's problems look company-specific, pressuring PEP shares.

    This is the core competitive dynamic weighing on PEP and is new this period.

  • Legacy consumer brands lose volume as shoppers trade down PepsiCo is among the big packaged-food companies losing volume as shoppers switch to cheaper private-label and newer brands. With little room to raise prices, this squeezes profit growth and keeps a lid on the stock.

    It explains the broad demand headwind behind PepsiCo's weak North America volumes.

  • First-half revenue and profit jump on healthier product pivot PepsiCo's first-half fiscal 2026 revenue rose over 7% to nearly $44 billion, and net income surged to $5.3 billion from a depressed year-ago figure. The improving financials and a 4.1% dividend yield could support a second-half rally.

    It provides the main positive counterweight to the North America weakness.

  • Self-driving trucks deployed on Frito-Lay routes PepsiCo signed a multi-year deal with Gatik to run 41 autonomous box trucks for Frito-Lay distribution. The move aims to cut long-term transport costs and improve logistics efficiency, freeing resources for other investments and supporting profit margins.

    It is a new operational efficiency initiative that could lift future earnings.

July 2026
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PepsiCo's North America Weakness Deepens, Activist Stake Offers Hope

  • North America Weakness and Downgrade PepsiCo's North America snacks and drinks remained sluggish despite price cuts, prompting a Citi downgrade and analyst fair-value cuts. This deepening weakness is a key reason the stock sits near a 52-week low.

    It explains the core negative driver of the stock's poor performance.

  • Coca-Cola's Strong Results Highlight PepsiCo's Struggles Coca-Cola's strong results and widening valuation premium over PepsiCo highlight PepsiCo's company-specific problems, not just industry-wide challenges. This contrast pressures PepsiCo's stock as investors question its ability to compete.

    It shows competitive pressure and relative underperformance as a driver.

  • Elliott's $4 Billion Activist Stake Elliott's $4 billion activist stake could unlock value through structural or capital changes, offering a potential catalyst for the stock. Investors see this as a possible path to improve PepsiCo's performance.

    It introduces a new potential positive catalyst for the stock.

  • Q2 Revenue Beat but EPS Miss; International Growth Bright Spot Q2 revenue beat but EPS missed, with guidance held amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. International growth, especially Asia Pacific and a new Vietnam plant, remains a bright spot, partially offsetting North America weakness.

    It captures the mixed earnings outcome and the offsetting international strength.

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PepsiCo's North America slump deepens as Coke pulls further ahead

  • Analysts cut PepsiCo's fair value on softer North America Analysts trimmed PepsiCo's fair value estimate by 5.4% to $155.91, lowering revenue growth and the future P/E multiple. They cite softer confidence in PepsiCo Foods North America and a heavier reliance on international strength. Lower analyst targets pull the stock down because they reset what investors think it is worth.

    New analyst estimate cuts directly reset the valuation anchor for PEP.

  • Coca-Cola's strong quarter highlights PepsiCo's weak U.S. consumer Coca-Cola's global volume grew 5% and North America revenue rose 7%, while PepsiCo's Frito-Lay North America sales fell 2% and drinks grew just 1%. Coke raised guidance and its stock jumped about 6%. The contrast makes PepsiCo's problems look company-specific, not just a weak consumer, pressuring PEP shares.

    Coke's results are a fresh, direct competitive benchmark that makes PEP's weakness stand out.

  • Consumer staples estimates cut as pricing power runs out Third-quarter earnings estimates fell for Consumer Staples, including PepsiCo, as shoppers push back against price hikes. P&G's miss and Conagra's caution confirm the pattern. For PepsiCo, this means it cannot easily raise prices to offset weak volumes, which squeezes profit growth and weighs on the stock.

    It explains a sector-wide force behind PEP's pricing and profit pressure.

  • International growth offsets North America, but stock near 52-week low International volume rose 5% with Asia Pacific snacks up 15%, PepsiCo's fastest growth since 2022. But North American food sales fell 2% and drinks volume dropped 4% as high gas prices cut convenience-store traffic. The stock trades near a 52-week low at about 16 times earnings, with a 4.3% dividend yield.

    It captures the central tug-of-war now driving PEP: strong abroad, weak at home.

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PepsiCo's North America slump deepens as consumers cut back

  • North America volumes stay weak despite price cuts PepsiCo's U.S. snack and drink volumes were flat to down in Q2, even after cutting prices 15% on major snack brands. The CEO blamed high gas prices for fewer impulse buys at convenience stores. This weak demand is the main reason the stock fell 3.3% after earnings.

    It explains the core problem dragging PEP's price down.

  • June grocery unit sales drop 1.8%, adding pressure U.S. grocery unit sales fell 1.8% in June, a sharp reversal from a small gain a year ago. Shoppers are trading down to cheaper brands and using more coupons. This makes it harder for PepsiCo to grow volumes and could force more price cuts, hurting profits.

    It shows the weak consumer trend is industry-wide and worsening, directly affecting PEP's volumes.

  • International growth and new Vietnam plant offer a bright spot PepsiCo's international business is on track to top $40 billion in sales and is now profit-accretive, with global volumes growing fastest since 2022. A new $300 million Suntory PepsiCo plant in Vietnam targets rising demand for healthier drinks. This helps offset North America weakness.

    It highlights a key positive force supporting PEP's price amid domestic struggles.

  • Coke's premium widens as Pepsi lags Coca-Cola now trades at a much higher valuation than PepsiCo, with Coke up 19.4% this year while Pepsi fell 4.2%. Pepsi's North American food revenue declined and beverage volume dropped 4%. This gap reflects investor doubts about Pepsi's ability to fix its core business.

    It shows how far Pepsi has fallen behind a key rival, reinforcing negative sentiment.

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PepsiCo's North America weakness deepens as Citi downgrades and Elliott pushes for change

  • North America snack weakness drags on results PepsiCo's Q2 revenue beat, but North American snacks and drinks stayed weak: food organic sales fell 2% and drinks grew just 1%. Consumers cut back on snacks due to inflation and high gas prices. This weakness is the main reason the stock fell after earnings.

    It explains the core operational problem driving the stock down.

  • Citi downgrades PEP to Neutral on persistent weakness Citi cut PepsiCo to Neutral from Buy and slashed its price target to $145 from $170, saying North America weakness hasn't reversed despite price cuts and innovation. It doubts the full-year guidance and sees a tough 2027. This adds selling pressure.

    It shows a major analyst losing confidence, which weighs on the stock.

  • Elliott's $4 billion activist stake pushes for change Elliott Investment Management took a $4 billion stake and is pushing PepsiCo to change its structure and capital allocation, potentially boosting buybacks or selling assets. This could unlock value and supports the stock.

    It introduces a major new force that could improve PepsiCo's performance and shareholder returns.

  • Q2 earnings: revenue beat, EPS miss, guidance maintained PepsiCo beat revenue expectations but missed on adjusted EPS ($2.20 vs $2.21). It kept its full-year outlook, but warned that geopolitical uncertainty and inflation could keep pressuring consumers. The mixed result left the stock down about 3-4%.

    It captures the immediate market reaction and the cautious outlook.

Corn Futures (CORN.COMM)

Q3 2026
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Corn swings from sub-$4 to three-year high on Black Sea and weather shocks

  • Bearish start to quarter Corn futures fell below $4 in June on bearish WASDE data, weak exports, and soft ethanol demand, setting a low base before the rebound.

    Explains the initial price weakness that opened the quarter.

  • Supply shocks drive rebound July USDA cuts, Black Sea attacks, and hot US weather tightened supply, pushing prices toward $4.85 and later a three-year high near $5.37 in August.

    Captures the main bullish forces that reversed the early decline.

  • Caps and supports battle Russia's duty suspension and favorable Midwest weather capped gains, while El Niño threats to ASEAN crops, strong US export estimates, and surging crude oil boosted ethanol demand provided support.

    Shows the tug-of-war between bearish and bullish factors that kept prices choppy.

  • Peace talks pressure prices In September, peace talks raised the prospect of restored Black Sea supply, pressuring prices, though ample supply forecasts kept corn caught between bullish demand and bearish supply risks.

    Highlights the late-quarter bearish development and the overall choppy market condition.

September 2026
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Corn swings on Black Sea peace hopes, USDA data, and biofuel demand

  • Russia-Ukraine peace talks could restore Black Sea grain exports Putin signaled openness to peace talks, raising the chance that Black Sea grain exports resume. More corn supply would push prices down. Corn fell 0.74% on the news. This is a real counterweight to the earlier supply fears.

    Directly answers why corn moved: peace hopes could ease the supply crunch that had lifted prices.

  • El Niño threatens ASEAN grain supplies, lifting corn demand OCBC warns El Niño will drive up corn and wheat prices, hitting ASEAN importers. Higher world prices mean stronger demand for corn, supporting futures. This adds a new demand-side reason for corn to stay elevated.

    Shows a new demand driver from weather that supports corn prices.

  • USDA report: higher corn exports but ample supply USDA raised US corn export estimates, which supports prices, but also pointed to higher soybean output and a slight improvement in corn crop ratings, signaling ample supply. Corn fell after the report. The tug-of-war between strong demand and ample supply keeps prices choppy.

    Captures the key USDA data that moved corn both ways this period.

  • Crude oil surge boosts biofuel demand for corn Crude oil jumped on tanker attacks, making biofuels more competitive. Corn is used to make ethanol, so higher oil prices increase demand for corn. This helped corn gain 0.47% on Sept 15. It's a new supportive force.

    Explains a new positive driver: oil prices lifting corn via biofuel demand.

Latest
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Corn swings on Black Sea peace hopes, USDA data, and biofuel demand

  • Russia-Ukraine peace talks could restore Black Sea grain exports Putin signaled openness to peace talks, raising the chance that Black Sea grain exports resume. More corn supply would push prices down. Corn fell 0.74% on the news. This is a real counterweight to the earlier supply fears.

    Directly answers why corn moved: peace hopes could ease the supply crunch that had lifted prices.

  • El Niño threatens ASEAN grain supplies, lifting corn demand OCBC warns El Niño will drive up corn and wheat prices, hitting ASEAN importers. Higher world prices mean stronger demand for corn, supporting futures. This adds a new demand-side reason for corn to stay elevated.

    Shows a new demand driver from weather that supports corn prices.

  • USDA report: higher corn exports but ample supply USDA raised US corn export estimates, which supports prices, but also pointed to higher soybean output and a slight improvement in corn crop ratings, signaling ample supply. Corn fell after the report. The tug-of-war between strong demand and ample supply keeps prices choppy.

    Captures the key USDA data that moved corn both ways this period.

  • Crude oil surge boosts biofuel demand for corn Crude oil jumped on tanker attacks, making biofuels more competitive. Corn is used to make ethanol, so higher oil prices increase demand for corn. This helped corn gain 0.47% on Sept 15. It's a new supportive force.

    Explains a new positive driver: oil prices lifting corn via biofuel demand.

August 2026
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Corn hits 3-year high on USDA cuts, Black Sea attacks

  • USDA cuts yield and stocks The USDA cut its corn yield and ending stocks forecasts, and crop ratings fell. A Midwest crop tour confirmed smaller yields, pushing December corn to a three-year high near $5.37.

    This is the main fundamental driver of the price rally during the period.

  • Black Sea attacks halt exports Attacks in the Black Sea region nearly stopped grain exports from a key global supplier. This tightened world supply and helped push global food prices to three-year highs, with banks warning of a grain crisis.

    Geopolitical disruption was a major force behind the price surge.

  • Russia suspends grain export duties Russia suspended grain export duties through the end of 2026 to help exporters reroute shipments. This could add some supply, but limited Baltic port capacity means it won't fully offset lost Black Sea volumes.

    This is the main counterweight that kept prices from rising even more.

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Corn hits 3-year high as US crop shrinks and Black Sea exports stall

  • US corn crop smaller than expected A Midwest crop tour found Illinois and other key states' corn yields below USDA forecasts, with hot weather hurting the crop. Less corn grown means tighter supply, pushing December corn to a three-year high near $5.37 a bushel.

    This is the main new force lifting corn prices this period.

  • Black Sea grain exports nearly halted Russia and Ukraine escalated attacks on ports and ships, stopping most grain loading from the Black Sea, which handles over 70% of Russia's exports. With Ukrainian corn and Russian wheat stuck, buyers turn to other sources, lifting corn prices.

    Geopolitical disruption to a major export route is a key new driver of corn's rise.

  • Wall Street warns of grain crisis Major banks issued grain crisis warnings, and corn and wheat hit three-year highs. A Chinese corn-seed stock, Wanxiang Doneed, hit five straight daily limit-ups. This shows broad market fear of tight grain supplies, which keeps corn prices elevated.

    It shows the wider market reaction and reinforces the supply-driven rally.

  • Russia suspends grain export duties Russia cut its grain export duty to 0% until end-2026 to help its exporters reroute after Black Sea disruptions. This could add some Russian corn to global markets, a mild counterweight, but limited Baltic port capacity means it won't fully offset lost Black Sea supply.

    It is the main counterweight to the rally, but its impact is limited by logistics.

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USDA cuts corn yield and stocks, sending prices to two-week high

  • USDA cuts yield and ending stocks The August USDA report cut the corn yield estimate and lowered ending stocks to 1.653 billion bushels, tightening the supply picture. December corn jumped 20 cents to $4.81, its highest in two weeks, as traders priced in less corn available than expected.

    This is the single biggest new supply shock of the period and directly explains the price rally.

  • US crop condition ratings drop The USDA cut its good-to-excellent corn rating by 2 points to 61%, signaling the crop is not as healthy as hoped. Lower ratings raise fears of a smaller harvest, which supports higher corn prices.

    It is a fresh supply signal that adds to the tightening narrative and helps explain the rally.

  • Black Sea attacks disrupt grain exports Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's main wheat export port forced terminals to suspend operations, and fighting in the region continues to threaten grain shipments. Any disruption to Black Sea supply makes corn relatively more valuable and lifts prices.

    It is a new geopolitical supply risk that directly supports corn prices alongside the USDA cuts.

  • Global food prices hit three-year high on drought The UN food price index rose to its highest since early 2023, driven by cereals and concerns about drought in US growing areas and a severe European grain shortfall. Tight global grain supplies keep upward pressure on corn prices.

    It shows the broader global supply backdrop that reinforces the bullish case for corn.

July 2026
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Corn swings on USDA cuts, Black Sea attacks, weather

  • June WASDE and weak demand The June WASDE raised US and world corn stockpiles, while weak export sales and lower ethanol output signaled softer demand. Long liquidation pushed prices below $4.

    Explains the early bearish pressure that drove prices down.

  • July USDA cut and IGC trim The July USDA report cut US and world stocks more than expected, and the IGC trimmed its global crop forecast. Strong export demand and higher corn oil prices also aided processor margins.

    Highlights the bullish supply revisions that supported prices.

  • Black Sea attacks and hot US weather In late July, Black Sea attacks and hot US weather lifted corn toward $4.85, with surging crude oil boosting ethanol demand.

    Identifies geopolitical and weather events that pushed prices higher.

  • Favorable weather and Thai imports Offsetting gains, favorable Midwest weather forecasts and Thailand's planned 1-million-tonne US corn import pressured prices back to $4.72.

    Shows the counterweight that pulled prices down from highs.

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Corn swings on weather, oil, and Black Sea risk

  • Black Sea attacks and hot US weather lift corn Attacks on Ukrainian grain ports pushed wheat to a two-year high, and hot, dry weather threatened US corn areas. Both raised fears of tighter global grain supplies, helping corn futures climb toward $4.85 a bushel.

    Explains the main supply-side forces pushing corn up during the period.

  • Crude oil surge boosts biofuel demand for corn Rising crude oil prices made corn-based ethanol more competitive as a fuel additive, supporting demand for corn. This helped corn futures hold near recent highs even as wheat and soybeans pulled back.

    Shows how energy markets feed through to corn demand and prices.

  • Favorable US weather and Thai imports pressure corn Forecasts for good Midwest growing weather raised expectations of a larger US crop, sending corn down 1.8% to $4.72. Separately, Thailand's plan to import 1 million tonnes of US corn added to global supply, weighing on prices.

    Captures the main bearish supply developments that reversed earlier gains.

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USDA cuts corn stocks, but weak exports and bearish start cap gains

  • June WASDE and long liquidation push corn below $4 The June USDA report raised US and world corn stockpiles, and traders dumped long positions before the acreage report. Managed money added to its bet on lower prices. Corn fell below $4 as the market absorbed a well-supplied picture.

    Explains the bearish starting point for the period and why corn was under pressure before later reports.

  • Tighter US stocks and smaller world crop lift prices The USDA's July report cut old and new US corn stocks more than expected, and world stocks were trimmed. The International Grains Council also cut its world crop forecast, while France's harvest shrank from heat. Less supply supports higher corn prices.

    This is the main bullish force in the period, showing supply tightening after the June report.

  • Weak export sales and lower ethanol output weigh on demand US old-crop corn export sales fell to a marketing-year low, and ethanol production dropped. Both point to softer demand for corn, which pulls prices down. The export slowdown was the latest drag after the July rally.

    Shows the demand side is not keeping up with the tighter supply story, a real counterweight to higher prices.

  • Strong export demand and corn oil prices support processor margins Alto Ingredients reported a big profit swing, helped by strong export demand and higher corn oil prices. Better margins for ethanol makers can mean more corn used, which is a mild positive for corn demand and prices.

    Gives a demand-side positive that partly offsets the weak export sales headline.

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