The J. M. Smucker vs The Kraft Heinz: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)

Q3 202619 Aug – 27 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Smucker's earnings beat and raised outlook lift shares to a 52-week high

Earnings beat and raised guidance Smucker reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $3.24 per share, far above the $2.22 expected, and raised its full-year profit forecast to $10.50–$11.00. The company also said sales would fall less than previously feared. This directly boosts investor confidence and pushes the stock up.
This is the main new event that moved the stock sharply higher this period.
Coffee strength and tariff refunds U.S. retail coffee revenue jumped 13% and segment profit more than doubled, helped by price increases and strong demand for brands like Café Bustelo. Smucker also received $115 million in tariff refunds, which boosted earnings. These factors drove the earnings surprise and support the stock.
These are the specific business drivers behind the earnings beat that lifted the stock.
Volume growth in key brands Overall volumes rose 1%, with strong performance from Uncrustables and Café Bustelo. This is a positive sign because many food companies are losing volume as shoppers trade down. Smucker's ability to grow volumes shows its brands remain resilient, which supports the stock.
It shows Smucker is bucking the industry trend of weak volumes, a key concern for investors.
Industry-wide volume pressure persists A report noted that big food companies, including Smucker, are seeing flat or falling volumes as shoppers switch to cheaper store brands. This is a real headwind that could limit future growth. However, Smucker's latest results showed some volume growth, so the impact is mixed.
It provides the counterweight: the broader industry challenge that could cap gains.

August 202619 Aug – 27 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Smucker's earnings beat and raised outlook lift shares to a 52-week high

Earnings beat and raised guidance Smucker reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $3.24 per share, far above the $2.22 expected, and raised its full-year profit forecast to $10.50–$11.00. The company also said sales would fall less than previously feared. This directly boosts investor confidence and pushes the stock up.
This is the main new event that moved the stock sharply higher this period.
Coffee strength and tariff refunds U.S. retail coffee revenue jumped 13% and segment profit more than doubled, helped by price increases and strong demand for brands like Café Bustelo. Smucker also received $115 million in tariff refunds, which boosted earnings. These factors drove the earnings surprise and support the stock.
These are the specific business drivers behind the earnings beat that lifted the stock.
Volume growth in key brands Overall volumes rose 1%, with strong performance from Uncrustables and Café Bustelo. This is a positive sign because many food companies are losing volume as shoppers trade down. Smucker's ability to grow volumes shows its brands remain resilient, which supports the stock.
It shows Smucker is bucking the industry trend of weak volumes, a key concern for investors.
Industry-wide volume pressure persists A report noted that big food companies, including Smucker, are seeing flat or falling volumes as shoppers switch to cheaper store brands. This is a real headwind that could limit future growth. However, Smucker's latest results showed some volume growth, so the impact is mixed.
It provides the counterweight: the broader industry challenge that could cap gains.

Latest19 Aug – 27 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Smucker's earnings beat and raised outlook lift shares to a 52-week high

Earnings beat and raised guidance Smucker reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $3.24 per share, far above the $2.22 expected, and raised its full-year profit forecast to $10.50–$11.00. The company also said sales would fall less than previously feared. This directly boosts investor confidence and pushes the stock up.
This is the main new event that moved the stock sharply higher this period.
Coffee strength and tariff refunds U.S. retail coffee revenue jumped 13% and segment profit more than doubled, helped by price increases and strong demand for brands like Café Bustelo. Smucker also received $115 million in tariff refunds, which boosted earnings. These factors drove the earnings surprise and support the stock.
These are the specific business drivers behind the earnings beat that lifted the stock.
Volume growth in key brands Overall volumes rose 1%, with strong performance from Uncrustables and Café Bustelo. This is a positive sign because many food companies are losing volume as shoppers trade down. Smucker's ability to grow volumes shows its brands remain resilient, which supports the stock.
It shows Smucker is bucking the industry trend of weak volumes, a key concern for investors.
Industry-wide volume pressure persists A report noted that big food companies, including Smucker, are seeing flat or falling volumes as shoppers switch to cheaper store brands. This is a real headwind that could limit future growth. However, Smucker's latest results showed some volume growth, so the impact is mixed.
It provides the counterweight: the broader industry challenge that could cap gains.

The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)

Q3 202618 Jun – 8 Sep 2026

▼2▲1

Kraft Heinz's turnaround gains offset by massive write-down and volume declines

Turnaround progress lifts shares Kraft Heinz showed turnaround progress: Taste Elevation gained share, a $600 million brand investment narrowed market-share losses, and a three-hub reorganization targeted $2.8 billion in 2029 earnings, lifting shares 5.1%.
This explains the positive forces that drove the stock higher during the quarter.
Record costs and consumer trade-down squeeze margins Record commodity costs threatened margins as consumers traded down. Lower-income shoppers cut spending, forcing price cuts and smaller packs, which pressured profitability.
This highlights the cost and demand pressures that weighed on the stock.
$7.4 billion write-down and operating loss KHC took a $7.4 billion brand write-down and posted a $6.4 billion operating loss, with volumes shrinking. Legacy brands keep losing ground to private-label rivals, and North American volumes have declined in nine of ten years.
This captures the major negative events that hurt investor sentiment.
Q2 beat and raised guidance offset by profit decline Q2 beat estimates with raised sales guidance, but adjusted operating income is still expected to fall 16–18%. Canadian retaliatory dairy tariffs add further headwinds.
This shows the mixed signals from earnings and external trade pressures.

August 202616 Aug – 8 Sep 2026

▼4

KHC squeezed by weak shoppers, brand decline, price cuts and new tariffs

Lower-income shoppers running out of money Kraft Heinz's CEO says lower-income Americans are running out of cash and cutting spending on its food. That directly shrinks how much the company sells, and it is why KHC is cutting prices and pushing smaller packs. Less money coming in pressures the stock.
This is the core demand problem behind KHC's weak volumes and price cuts.
$7.4 billion write-down and falling volumes KHC took a $7.4 billion accounting charge, mostly writing down the value of its brand names, and posted a $6.4 billion operating loss. It also said sales volumes keep shrinking. The write-down signals management now values its brands far less than before, which weighs on the stock.
The impairment is a major capital event that resets the value of KHC's brands.
Legacy brands losing shoppers to cheaper rivals Kraft Heinz's North American volumes have fallen in nine of the past ten years as shoppers switch to store-brand and newer rivals. The CEO is spending $700 million to revive old brands instead of breaking up the company. This long decline is the main reason the stock has struggled.
It explains the long-term competitive erosion behind KHC's shrinking volumes.
Q2 beat and raised outlook, but profit still falling KHC beat second-quarter estimates and raised its 2026 sales outlook, helped by strong emerging-market growth. But it still expects adjusted operating income to fall 16–18% this year as it spends about $700 million more on price cuts and marketing. Better sales, much lower profit.
It is the key counterweight: results beat expectations, but profits are still shrinking.
Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. dairy exports Canada's new retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods include dairy, which Kraft Heinz exports. Higher tariffs make its products more expensive in Canada and can reduce sales there. It adds a fresh cost and demand headwind on top of weak U.S. shopping.
New tariffs directly raise costs and reduce demand for KHC's Canadian exports.

Latest16 Aug – 8 Sep 2026

▼4

KHC squeezed by weak shoppers, brand decline, price cuts and new tariffs

Lower-income shoppers running out of money Kraft Heinz's CEO says lower-income Americans are running out of cash and cutting spending on its food. That directly shrinks how much the company sells, and it is why KHC is cutting prices and pushing smaller packs. Less money coming in pressures the stock.
This is the core demand problem behind KHC's weak volumes and price cuts.
$7.4 billion write-down and falling volumes KHC took a $7.4 billion accounting charge, mostly writing down the value of its brand names, and posted a $6.4 billion operating loss. It also said sales volumes keep shrinking. The write-down signals management now values its brands far less than before, which weighs on the stock.
The impairment is a major capital event that resets the value of KHC's brands.
Legacy brands losing shoppers to cheaper rivals Kraft Heinz's North American volumes have fallen in nine of the past ten years as shoppers switch to store-brand and newer rivals. The CEO is spending $700 million to revive old brands instead of breaking up the company. This long decline is the main reason the stock has struggled.
It explains the long-term competitive erosion behind KHC's shrinking volumes.
Q2 beat and raised outlook, but profit still falling KHC beat second-quarter estimates and raised its 2026 sales outlook, helped by strong emerging-market growth. But it still expects adjusted operating income to fall 16–18% this year as it spends about $700 million more on price cuts and marketing. Better sales, much lower profit.
It is the key counterweight: results beat expectations, but profits are still shrinking.
Canada's retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. dairy exports Canada's new retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods include dairy, which Kraft Heinz exports. Higher tariffs make its products more expensive in Canada and can reduce sales there. It adds a fresh cost and demand headwind on top of weak U.S. shopping.
New tariffs directly raise costs and reduce demand for KHC's Canadian exports.

July 202618 Jun – 5 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Kraft Heinz's Turnaround Gains Traction Despite Cost Pressures

Taste Elevation Share Gains Kraft Heinz's Taste Elevation category saw 87% of U.S. revenues gaining or holding share in March, up from 24% in fiscal 2025. This shows strong demand for key brands like Heinz ketchup and Philadelphia cream cheese, which supports revenue and investor confidence.
This point highlights a key positive demand trend that directly boosts KHC's pricing power and sales outlook.
$600 Million Brand Investment Kraft Heinz will redirect $600 million into brand investment, raising marketing to 5.5% of net sales. Market share losses narrowed from 90 to 20 basis points, with over half of categories holding or gaining share. This aims to revive growth and improve long-term profitability.
This investment is a core part of the turnaround strategy and signals management's commitment to driving demand.
Global Reorganization into Three Hubs Kraft Heinz reorganized into three regional hubs to cut costs and improve efficiency. The company projects earnings of $2.8 billion by 2029, up from a current loss of $5.8 billion. Shares rose 5.1% on the news, reflecting optimism about the plan.
This structural change is a major driver of future profitability and has already positively impacted the stock price.
Rising Commodity Costs Threaten Turnaround Record cookout costs, with ground beef at $14.06 per two pounds and pork and beans up 13.8%, challenge Kraft Heinz's assumption that inflation has peaked. This could pressure margins and delay the turnaround, especially as consumers trade down to cheaper private-label brands.
This is a key risk that could undermine the company's cost assumptions and profitability, directly affecting the stock.

18 Jun – 5 Aug 2026

▲3▼1

Kraft Heinz's Turnaround Gains Traction Despite Cost Pressures

Taste Elevation Share Gains Kraft Heinz's Taste Elevation category saw 87% of U.S. revenues gaining or holding share in March, up from 24% in fiscal 2025. This shows strong demand for key brands like Heinz ketchup and Philadelphia cream cheese, which supports revenue and investor confidence.
This point highlights a key positive demand trend that directly boosts KHC's pricing power and sales outlook.
$600 Million Brand Investment Kraft Heinz will redirect $600 million into brand investment, raising marketing to 5.5% of net sales. Market share losses narrowed from 90 to 20 basis points, with over half of categories holding or gaining share. This aims to revive growth and improve long-term profitability.
This investment is a core part of the turnaround strategy and signals management's commitment to driving demand.
Global Reorganization into Three Hubs Kraft Heinz reorganized into three regional hubs to cut costs and improve efficiency. The company projects earnings of $2.8 billion by 2029, up from a current loss of $5.8 billion. Shares rose 5.1% on the news, reflecting optimism about the plan.
This structural change is a major driver of future profitability and has already positively impacted the stock price.
Rising Commodity Costs Threaten Turnaround Record cookout costs, with ground beef at $14.06 per two pounds and pork and beans up 13.8%, challenge Kraft Heinz's assumption that inflation has peaked. This could pressure margins and delay the turnaround, especially as consumers trade down to cheaper private-label brands.
This is a key risk that could undermine the company's cost assumptions and profitability, directly affecting the stock.