Chalco Profit Surges, Buyback Wave and Middle East Supply Fears Lift Stock
Record H1 profit forecast Chalco expects first-half 2026 net profit of 11.2–12.2 billion yuan, up 58–73% year-on-year, a record for the period. This shows the company is making much more money from its aluminum operations, which directly supports a higher share price.
This is the core fundamental driver of the stock's value and a new, concrete earnings signal.
Controlling shareholder's 1–2 billion yuan stake increase Chinalco Group and its partners plan to buy 1–2 billion yuan of Chalco A- and H-shares over 12 months. This signals confidence from the parent company and adds real buying demand for the stock, pushing the price up.
It is a direct, large-scale purchase by the controlling shareholder that boosts demand for the shares.
Middle East conflict threatens aluminum supply Escalating US-Iran tensions risk disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which the Middle East relies on for aluminum exports. The region makes nearly 10% of global aluminum, so supply worries are lifting aluminum prices and helping Chalco's stock.
This is a new geopolitical supply shock that directly affects aluminum prices, a key driver of Chalco's revenue.
State-backed market stabilisation wave Central enterprises, including Chalco, announced buybacks, stake increases and asset injections as part of a broader CSRC-supported effort. Nearly 60 billion yuan from two state firms and trillion-yuan insurers pledging support create a strong floor for large SOE stocks like Chalco.
It shows a coordinated policy push that lifts demand for Chalco shares and reduces downside risk.