← The TJX Companies overview

The TJX Companies vs US Dollar/Canadian Dollar FX Spot Rate: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

Q3 2026
▲2▼2

TJX beats and raises twice, but Marmaxx slowdown and Ross pressure weigh

  • Strong Q1 and Q2 results with raised guidance TJX beat earnings estimates and raised guidance twice, with Q1 comparable sales up 6% and EPS up 29%, followed by Q2 EPS growth of 11% and margin expansion. This shows resilient execution and defensive appeal.

    This is the core positive driver of the period, showing strong financial performance and management confidence.

  • Marmaxx comparable sales growth slows to 1% The key Marmaxx division slowed sharply to just 1% comparable growth, which management attributed to execution and merchandise mix issues. This raised concerns about near-term growth prospects.

    This is a new negative development that directly pressures TJX shares and tempers the outlook.

  • Ross Stores outperforms, intensifying competition Ross Stores outperformed with 10% comparable sales and raised guidance, pressuring TJX shares and highlighting competitive concerns in the off-price retail space.

    This competitive pressure is a new negative factor that weighs on TJX's relative performance.

  • TJX stands out as peers like Kohl's struggle TJX stood out positively as peers like Kohl's struggled, reinforcing its position as a resilient defensive compounder amid a challenging retail environment.

    This highlights TJX's relative strength and defensive appeal, supporting its valuation.

August 2026
▲2▼2

TJX Q2 Beat and Raised Outlook, but Marmaxx Slows and Ross Shines

  • TJX beats Q2 and raises full-year guidance TJX reported Q2 EPS of $1.22, up 11%, with comparable sales up 4% and margin expansion. Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.20 and pretax margin to 12.0%–12.1%, and increased long-term store potential to 7,500. This signals strong momentum and supports the stock price.

    This is the core new event that directly drives TJX's valuation and investor confidence.

  • Marmaxx division slows sharply TJX's key Marmaxx division grew comparable sales only 1%, well below the company's overall 4% and peers. Management blamed internal execution and merchandise mix, not competition, and expects improvement by Q4. The slowdown raises concerns about near-term growth and pressures the stock.

    This is the main negative counterweight in the new period, explaining why TJX shares fell despite the earnings beat.

  • Ross Stores outperforms with 10% comparable sales Ross Stores reported a 10% jump in comparable sales and raised guidance, while TJX grew only 4% and guided Q3 comps to just 2%–3%. Ross shares rose while TJX fell, highlighting competitive pressure and investor preference for Ross's stronger momentum, which weighs on TJX's stock.

    This directly compares TJX to a key competitor and explains the negative sentiment and relative underperformance.

  • TJX stands out as Kohl's and other peers struggle Kohl's fell 6% despite a tariff refund, with comparable sales down 0.9%, while TJX posted organic 4% comp growth and raised guidance. This contrast reinforces TJX's resilient off-price model and attracts defensive investors, supporting the stock price.

    It shows TJX's relative strength in a tough retail environment, a positive driver for the stock.

Latest
▲2▼2

TJX Q2 Beat and Raised Outlook, but Marmaxx Slows and Ross Shines

  • TJX beats Q2 and raises full-year guidance TJX reported Q2 EPS of $1.22, up 11%, with comparable sales up 4% and margin expansion. Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.20 and pretax margin to 12.0%–12.1%, and increased long-term store potential to 7,500. This signals strong momentum and supports the stock price.

    This is the core new event that directly drives TJX's valuation and investor confidence.

  • Marmaxx division slows sharply TJX's key Marmaxx division grew comparable sales only 1%, well below the company's overall 4% and peers. Management blamed internal execution and merchandise mix, not competition, and expects improvement by Q4. The slowdown raises concerns about near-term growth and pressures the stock.

    This is the main negative counterweight in the new period, explaining why TJX shares fell despite the earnings beat.

  • Ross Stores outperforms with 10% comparable sales Ross Stores reported a 10% jump in comparable sales and raised guidance, while TJX grew only 4% and guided Q3 comps to just 2%–3%. Ross shares rose while TJX fell, highlighting competitive pressure and investor preference for Ross's stronger momentum, which weighs on TJX's stock.

    This directly compares TJX to a key competitor and explains the negative sentiment and relative underperformance.

  • TJX stands out as Kohl's and other peers struggle Kohl's fell 6% despite a tariff refund, with comparable sales down 0.9%, while TJX posted organic 4% comp growth and raised guidance. This contrast reinforces TJX's resilient off-price model and attracts defensive investors, supporting the stock price.

    It shows TJX's relative strength in a tough retail environment, a positive driver for the stock.

July 2026
▲4

TJX beats, raises guidance, and shines as a defensive pick

  • Earnings beat and raised fiscal 2027 guidance TJX reported first-quarter earnings per share of $1.19, beating estimates, with sales up 9% and comparable store sales up 6%. Management raised full-year guidance, signaling strong momentum and boosting investor confidence, which pushes the stock price up.

    This is the core new event that directly drives TJX's stock higher.

  • Bullish thesis highlights defensive compounder A bullish thesis emphasized TJX's 6% comparable sales growth, margin expansion, 29% EPS surge, and increased buyback authorization. It positions TJX as a defensive hedge with a low-tech model that outperforms in downturns, attracting investors and supporting the stock price.

    This reinforces the positive narrative and explains why investors are buying TJX.

  • Discount retail peers show solid demand Ross Stores and other discount retailers reported strong Q1 results, with most beating revenue estimates. This indicates robust consumer demand for off-price retail, benefiting TJX as part of the sector and supporting its stock price through positive sentiment.

    It shows sector-wide demand strength that lifts TJX's outlook.

  • Market rotation and defensive appeal Money is rotating from megacap tech into financials and energy, and the Fed chair's inflation stance has investors seeking defensive stocks like TJX. This flight to safety and TJX's strong earnings beat drive demand for its shares, pushing the price up.

    It explains the broader market shift that benefits TJX as a defensive stock.

▲4

TJX beats, raises guidance, and shines as a defensive pick

  • Earnings beat and raised fiscal 2027 guidance TJX reported first-quarter earnings per share of $1.19, beating estimates, with sales up 9% and comparable store sales up 6%. Management raised full-year guidance, signaling strong momentum and boosting investor confidence, which pushes the stock price up.

    This is the core new event that directly drives TJX's stock higher.

  • Bullish thesis highlights defensive compounder A bullish thesis emphasized TJX's 6% comparable sales growth, margin expansion, 29% EPS surge, and increased buyback authorization. It positions TJX as a defensive hedge with a low-tech model that outperforms in downturns, attracting investors and supporting the stock price.

    This reinforces the positive narrative and explains why investors are buying TJX.

  • Discount retail peers show solid demand Ross Stores and other discount retailers reported strong Q1 results, with most beating revenue estimates. This indicates robust consumer demand for off-price retail, benefiting TJX as part of the sector and supporting its stock price through positive sentiment.

    It shows sector-wide demand strength that lifts TJX's outlook.

  • Market rotation and defensive appeal Money is rotating from megacap tech into financials and energy, and the Fed chair's inflation stance has investors seeking defensive stocks like TJX. This flight to safety and TJX's strong earnings beat drive demand for its shares, pushing the price up.

    It explains the broader market shift that benefits TJX as a defensive stock.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar FX Spot Rate (USDCAD.FOREX)

Q3 2026
▲3▼1

USDCAD swings on trade, rate gaps, and jobs data

  • Tariff cuts and steady BoC weaken USD/CAD US-Canada tariff cuts, a steady Bank of Canada at 2.25%, rebounding oil, and fading Fed hike bets strengthened the Canadian dollar, pulling USDCAD down toward 1.38.

    This explains the main downward force on USDCAD during the period.

  • Fed hike bets and safe-haven demand support USD Even as USDCAD fell, Fed hike expectations and safe-haven demand from US-Iran tensions supported the US dollar, limiting the loonie's gains.

    This shows the counterweight that prevented a larger USDCAD decline.

  • Trade retaliation and inflation boost USD/CAD From late August, escalating US-Canada trade retaliation and sticky US inflation at 3.7% boosted Fed hike odds, pushing USDCAD higher.

    This identifies the key drivers of the late-period reversal upward.

  • Canadian jobs shock widens rate gap A Canadian jobs shock (41,700 losses) versus strong US payrolls (162,000) widened the rate gap, further lifting USDCAD.

    This highlights the labor market divergence that accelerated USDCAD's rise.

August 2026
▲3▼1

USDCAD swings on trade, rate gaps, and jobs data

  • Tariff cuts and steady BoC weaken USD/CAD US-Canada tariff cuts, a steady Bank of Canada at 2.25%, rebounding oil, and fading Fed hike bets strengthened the Canadian dollar, pulling USDCAD down toward 1.38.

    This explains the main downward force on USDCAD during the period.

  • Fed hike bets and safe-haven demand support USD Even as USDCAD fell, Fed hike expectations and safe-haven demand from US-Iran tensions supported the US dollar, limiting the loonie's gains.

    This shows the counterweight that prevented a larger USDCAD decline.

  • Trade retaliation and inflation boost USD/CAD From late August, escalating US-Canada trade retaliation and sticky US inflation at 3.7% boosted Fed hike odds, pushing USDCAD higher.

    This identifies the key drivers of the late-period reversal upward.

  • Canadian jobs shock widens rate gap A Canadian jobs shock (41,700 losses) versus strong US payrolls (162,000) widened the rate gap, further lifting USDCAD.

    This highlights the labor market divergence that accelerated USDCAD's rise.

Latest
▲3

Trade war escalation and rate gap drive USDCAD higher

  • US-Canada trade war escalation weakens CAD The US is considering more trade penalties, and Canada is retaliating with counter-tariffs on $20 billion of US goods. This trade fight hurts Canada's economy, so the Canadian dollar weakens and USDCAD rises.

    Directly explains a key new force pushing USDCAD up this period.

  • Sticky US inflation boosts Fed rate hike odds, supporting USD US inflation stayed high at 3.7%, increasing the chance the Fed raises interest rates. Higher US rates attract global money into dollar assets, so the US dollar strengthens and USDCAD rises.

    Shows a new monetary force widening the US-Canada rate gap in favor of USD.

  • Bank of Canada holds rate but warns on inflation The BoC kept its key rate at 2.25% but said inflation risks are rising. This cautious tone leaves the door open for future hikes, which could support the loonie, but for now the rate gap still favors the US dollar.

    Captures the BoC's latest stance, a key monetary factor with mixed implications for USDCAD.

  • Canadian jobs shock and strong US payrolls widen rate gap Canada lost 41,700 jobs in August while the US added 162,000. This weak Canadian data pressures the BoC to keep rates low, while strong US jobs support higher US rates, pushing USDCAD up.

    A major new data point that directly widens the interest rate differential favoring USD.

▼3▲1

US-Canada tariff cuts lift loonie; Fed-BoC policy gap still supports USD

  • US-Canada tariff deal progress strengthens CAD The US and Canada are close to a deal cutting steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% and autos to 15%, far below the 50% threatened. This reduces the trade penalty on Canada's economy, so the Canadian dollar strengthens and USDCAD falls toward 1.38.

    This is the biggest new force this period, directly lowering USDCAD by improving Canada's trade outlook.

  • Fed rate-hike bets and safe-haven demand support USD Renewed US-Iran tensions and Fed minutes showing some officials favour a hike pushed the dollar up. Higher US rates attract global money into dollar assets, so the USD strengthens and USDCAD rises.

    This is the main counterweight keeping USDCAD elevated despite Canada's tariff relief.

  • Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%, signals steady policy The BoC kept its key rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight time, saying growth is picking up and inflation will ease. A steady BoC, while the Fed may still hike, narrows the rate gap that had favoured the US dollar, weighing on USDCAD.

    It explains the policy backdrop that limits how far USDCAD can rise.

  • Oil rebound and fading Fed hike bets lift CAD Crude oil rebounded after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, and hopes for a US-Iran peace deal plus weaker Fed hike expectations pushed the dollar down. Higher oil helps Canada's commodity-linked economy, so the loonie gains and USDCAD falls.

    It shows a second new force pulling USDCAD lower through oil and shifting rate expectations.

Q2 2026
▲2▼1

Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD; oil and AI hedging flows offer counterweight

  • Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD to seven-month high The Fed's updated dot plot now projects a year-end rate of 3.8%, up from 3.4%, implying a hike in 2026. Higher US rates attract global capital to the dollar, pushing USD/CAD up to 1.4075 and beyond.

    This is the primary new driver of USD/CAD strength this period.

  • Widening US-Canada yield spreads drive CAD slump Scotiabank notes the Canadian dollar has fallen in a near straight line since early May because US interest rates are rising faster than Canada's. That gap makes US assets more attractive, so investors sell CAD and buy USD, pushing USD/CAD higher.

    Explains the sustained trend behind USD/CAD's rise, not just a one-day move.

  • Oil price gains and AI hedging flows support CAD US strikes on Iran lifted oil prices, helping Canada's commodity-linked dollar. Also, AI-driven equity hedging has supported the Canadian dollar while slightly weighing on the US dollar. These forces can push USD/CAD down, but so far they have only slowed its rise.

    Provides the main counterweight to the dominant USD strength story.

June 2026
▲2▼1

Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD; oil and AI hedging flows offer counterweight

  • Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD to seven-month high The Fed's updated dot plot now projects a year-end rate of 3.8%, up from 3.4%, implying a hike in 2026. Higher US rates attract global capital to the dollar, pushing USD/CAD up to 1.4075 and beyond.

    This is the primary new driver of USD/CAD strength this period.

  • Widening US-Canada yield spreads drive CAD slump Scotiabank notes the Canadian dollar has fallen in a near straight line since early May because US interest rates are rising faster than Canada's. That gap makes US assets more attractive, so investors sell CAD and buy USD, pushing USD/CAD higher.

    Explains the sustained trend behind USD/CAD's rise, not just a one-day move.

  • Oil price gains and AI hedging flows support CAD US strikes on Iran lifted oil prices, helping Canada's commodity-linked dollar. Also, AI-driven equity hedging has supported the Canadian dollar while slightly weighing on the US dollar. These forces can push USD/CAD down, but so far they have only slowed its rise.

    Provides the main counterweight to the dominant USD strength story.

▲2▼1

Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD; oil and AI hedging flows offer counterweight

  • Fed hawkish shift lifts USD/CAD to seven-month high The Fed's updated dot plot now projects a year-end rate of 3.8%, up from 3.4%, implying a hike in 2026. Higher US rates attract global capital to the dollar, pushing USD/CAD up to 1.4075 and beyond.

    This is the primary new driver of USD/CAD strength this period.

  • Widening US-Canada yield spreads drive CAD slump Scotiabank notes the Canadian dollar has fallen in a near straight line since early May because US interest rates are rising faster than Canada's. That gap makes US assets more attractive, so investors sell CAD and buy USD, pushing USD/CAD higher.

    Explains the sustained trend behind USD/CAD's rise, not just a one-day move.

  • Oil price gains and AI hedging flows support CAD US strikes on Iran lifted oil prices, helping Canada's commodity-linked dollar. Also, AI-driven equity hedging has supported the Canadian dollar while slightly weighing on the US dollar. These forces can push USD/CAD down, but so far they have only slowed its rise.

    Provides the main counterweight to the dominant USD strength story.

© 2026 MarketDXWhy