← Workday overview

Workday vs Automatic Data Processing: why the prices moved differently

Weekly · monthly · quarterly news summaries, side by side in time

Workday Inc (WDAY)

Q3 2026
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Workday swings on buyout talk, AI growth, and slower guidance

  • IBM's weak results signaled budget shift from software to hardware IBM's disappointing results early in the quarter suggested companies are spending more on hardware and less on software, which dragged Workday shares down 5% and raised fears about demand.

    This was a key early event that pushed the stock down and set the tone for the quarter.

  • Morgan Stanley downgraded Workday on software-sector concerns Morgan Stanley downgraded Workday, adding to worries about the software sector. A downgrade means a major analyst lowered their rating, which can make investors more cautious and pressure the stock.

    This analyst action contributed to negative sentiment and is new information for the period.

  • Silver Lake buyout talks valued Workday at $240–$250 per share Reuters reported that private equity firm Silver Lake was in talks to buy Workday at $240–$250 per share, sending the stock surging. However, the talks could still fall apart, so the gain may not last.

    This was a major positive catalyst that drove a sharp price increase during the quarter.

  • Strong AI momentum but slower growth guidance and new competition Workday reported over $100 million in new AI contract value and roughly $600 million in AI annual recurring revenue, up over 200%. But it guided fiscal 2028 growth to about 11%, down from 13–14%, and AI-native startup Rillet poses a long-term threat.

    This captures both the positive AI traction and the negative guidance and competitive threat that balance the outlook.

August 2026
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Workday jumps on buyout talks, AI sales surge, but growth slows

  • Silver Lake buyout talks Reuters reported private equity firm Silver Lake is in talks to buy Workday, with analysts valuing a deal at $240–$250 per share. The stock surged on the news, though talks could still fall apart.

    This was the biggest new event driving Workday's price in August.

  • Record AI contract value Workday's AI products brought in over $100 million in new annual contract value and about $600 million in AI annual recurring revenue, up more than 200%. State government wins, like Georgia's 70,000-employee rollout, added to the momentum.

    Shows strong demand for Workday's new AI offerings, a key positive driver.

  • Slowing growth target Workday set an early fiscal 2028 growth target of about 11%, down from the current 13–14% pace. That signals the company expects its expansion to slow, which could weigh on the stock.

    A negative counterweight to the positive AI news, showing future growth may decelerate.

  • AI-native startup threat Rillet, an AI-native startup, is seen as a long-term threat to Workday's core ERP market. While not an immediate problem, it highlights how new AI competitors could chip away at Workday's business.

    A risk factor that could pressure the stock over time, balancing the positive AI news.

Latest
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Workday's AI Surge Meets Growth Slowdown and New Rivals

  • AI drives record new contract value Workday's AI products generated over $100 million in new annual contract value, more than 25% of all new ACV, with AI annual recurring revenue near $600 million, up over 200% year-over-year. This shows AI is becoming a real revenue driver, pushing the stock up.

    This is the core new positive force behind Workday's recent earnings-driven jump.

  • Early fiscal 2028 growth target signals slowdown Workday gave an early fiscal 2028 subscription growth target of about 11%, down from the current 13-14% pace. That suggests the company's growth is slowing, which weighs on the stock even as current results beat expectations.

    This is the main new counterweight that explains why the stock didn't hold its post-earnings gain.

  • AI-native startup Rillet challenges incumbents Rillet, a private AI-native ERP startup, is pitching real-time continuous accounting to replace batch-processed systems from Workday, Oracle, and SAP. Its backer says rivals would need 4-5 years to catch up, highlighting a long-term competitive threat to Workday's core market.

    This is a new competitive threat that could pressure Workday's long-term pricing and market share.

  • State government wins show public sector traction Workday reported large state government go-lives, including Georgia's 70,000-employee rollout, as governments replace legacy HR and finance systems. This deepens its public sector presence and supports future subscription revenue, though it reinforces an existing narrative rather than creating a new one.

    This is a new demand signal that supports the bull case, though it is more incremental than the AI and growth news.

▲2▼1

Silver Lake buyout talks send Workday soaring

  • Silver Lake in talks to acquire Workday Reuters reported private equity firm Silver Lake is in talks to buy Workday, sending shares up about 18-25% — their best day since 2016. A buyout would give shareholders a cash payout at a premium to the beaten-down price, so the stock jumped toward the rumored deal value.

    This is the single new event that explains the period's huge move and is the core answer to why WDAY is moving.

  • Analysts peg takeover value at $240-$250 per share Analysts at Needham, BNP Paribas and KeyBanc estimate a deal could be worth roughly $224-$250 per share, citing Workday's 98% renewal rates, sticky seat-based subscriptions and room to lift margins. That gives investors a concrete number to anchor the stock to while talks continue.

    It quantifies the buyout premium, which is what is pulling the share price up now.

  • Deal is only talks, and founders control the vote No deal is guaranteed — Silver Lake and Workday are still only in talks and may need outside investors to fund a huge purchase. Co-founders Aneel Bhusri and David Duffield hold about 70% of voting power, so RBC says a management-led buyout is more likely. If talks collapse, the stock could give back much of the gain.

    It is the real counterweight: the upside depends on a deal that may not happen, which is essential for a fair picture.

  • Software weakness and AI doubts linger Before the buyout report, Workday was down about 15% this year and 40% from its 2024 peak, hurt by worries that AI is making traditional software less competitive. On August 6, Datadog's weak earnings dragged Workday and other software names lower, showing the sector's underlying slump.

    It explains the weak backdrop that made Workday a takeover target and remains a risk if the deal fades.

July 2026
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Workday swings on software rotation, downgrade, and budget shift

  • Enterprise budgets shift from software to hardware IBM's weak results showed companies are spending on costly memory and servers instead of software, pushing Workday down 5% on July 14. If this trend continues, Workday's subscription revenue growth could slow, which would weigh on the stock.

    This is a new fundamental demand risk that directly threatens Workday's core business.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades Workday On July 21, Morgan Stanley downgraded Workday along with Adobe and Intuit, citing concerns about the software sector. A downgrade from a major bank can shake investor confidence and push the stock down, as it did that day.

    This is a new analyst action that directly impacted WDAY's price and sentiment.

  • Investors rotate into beaten-down software stocks As chipmakers sold off on July 27 and 28, investors moved money into software. Workday jumped over 8% and then over 7% on those days. This rotation can lift Workday's price even if its own business hasn't changed.

    This is a new positive price driver from sector rotation that explains recent gains.

▼2▲1

Workday swings on software rotation, downgrade, and budget shift

  • Enterprise budgets shift from software to hardware IBM's weak results showed companies are spending on costly memory and servers instead of software, pushing Workday down 5% on July 14. If this trend continues, Workday's subscription revenue growth could slow, which would weigh on the stock.

    This is a new fundamental demand risk that directly threatens Workday's core business.

  • Morgan Stanley downgrades Workday On July 21, Morgan Stanley downgraded Workday along with Adobe and Intuit, citing concerns about the software sector. A downgrade from a major bank can shake investor confidence and push the stock down, as it did that day.

    This is a new analyst action that directly impacted WDAY's price and sentiment.

  • Investors rotate into beaten-down software stocks As chipmakers sold off on July 27 and 28, investors moved money into software. Workday jumped over 8% and then over 7% on those days. This rotation can lift Workday's price even if its own business hasn't changed.

    This is a new positive price driver from sector rotation that explains recent gains.

Q2 2026
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Workday's AI Growth Story Faces Legal and Sector Headwinds

  • Q1 Revenue Beat and Strong Billings Workday reported Q1 revenue of $2.54 billion, up 13.5% year on year and beating estimates, with billings also ahead. This shows the core business is still growing, which supports the stock's value even as shares have fallen sharply this year.

    This is a new earnings report that directly affects investor confidence in Workday's financial health.

  • California AI Bias Lawsuit Proceeds A federal judge ruled Workday must face a class-action lawsuit claiming its AI hiring tools discriminated against applicants. This creates legal risk and potential liability, which could weigh on the stock as it raises uncertainty and possible costs.

    This is a new legal development that introduces regulatory and reputational risk for Workday.

  • Composable HCM Market to Triple by 2031 A new report projects the composable HR platform market will grow from $10.8 billion to $27.4 billion by 2031, driven by enterprises moving away from monolithic systems. Workday is well-positioned as a leading vendor, which could boost future demand.

    This market forecast highlights a long-term growth opportunity for Workday's modular offerings.

  • AI Fears Hit Software Stocks Workday shares fell 4.4% as part of a broader sell-off in software stocks, driven by fears that AI agents will erode subscription revenue models. This reflects ongoing market skepticism about traditional enterprise software, which could keep pressure on the stock.

    This captures a key negative sentiment driver affecting Workday's valuation.

June 2026
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Workday's AI Growth Story Faces Legal and Sector Headwinds

  • Q1 Revenue Beat and Strong Billings Workday reported Q1 revenue of $2.54 billion, up 13.5% year on year and beating estimates, with billings also ahead. This shows the core business is still growing, which supports the stock's value even as shares have fallen sharply this year.

    This is a new earnings report that directly affects investor confidence in Workday's financial health.

  • California AI Bias Lawsuit Proceeds A federal judge ruled Workday must face a class-action lawsuit claiming its AI hiring tools discriminated against applicants. This creates legal risk and potential liability, which could weigh on the stock as it raises uncertainty and possible costs.

    This is a new legal development that introduces regulatory and reputational risk for Workday.

  • Composable HCM Market to Triple by 2031 A new report projects the composable HR platform market will grow from $10.8 billion to $27.4 billion by 2031, driven by enterprises moving away from monolithic systems. Workday is well-positioned as a leading vendor, which could boost future demand.

    This market forecast highlights a long-term growth opportunity for Workday's modular offerings.

  • AI Fears Hit Software Stocks Workday shares fell 4.4% as part of a broader sell-off in software stocks, driven by fears that AI agents will erode subscription revenue models. This reflects ongoing market skepticism about traditional enterprise software, which could keep pressure on the stock.

    This captures a key negative sentiment driver affecting Workday's valuation.

▲2▼2

Workday's AI Growth Story Faces Legal and Sector Headwinds

  • Q1 Revenue Beat and Strong Billings Workday reported Q1 revenue of $2.54 billion, up 13.5% year on year and beating estimates, with billings also ahead. This shows the core business is still growing, which supports the stock's value even as shares have fallen sharply this year.

    This is a new earnings report that directly affects investor confidence in Workday's financial health.

  • California AI Bias Lawsuit Proceeds A federal judge ruled Workday must face a class-action lawsuit claiming its AI hiring tools discriminated against applicants. This creates legal risk and potential liability, which could weigh on the stock as it raises uncertainty and possible costs.

    This is a new legal development that introduces regulatory and reputational risk for Workday.

  • Composable HCM Market to Triple by 2031 A new report projects the composable HR platform market will grow from $10.8 billion to $27.4 billion by 2031, driven by enterprises moving away from monolithic systems. Workday is well-positioned as a leading vendor, which could boost future demand.

    This market forecast highlights a long-term growth opportunity for Workday's modular offerings.

  • AI Fears Hit Software Stocks Workday shares fell 4.4% as part of a broader sell-off in software stocks, driven by fears that AI agents will erode subscription revenue models. This reflects ongoing market skepticism about traditional enterprise software, which could keep pressure on the stock.

    This captures a key negative sentiment driver affecting Workday's valuation.

Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)

Q3 2026
▲2▼1

ADP Q4 Beats, AI Adoption Grows, But Hiring and Competition Loom

  • Strong Q4 results and upbeat guidance ADP reported 7% revenue growth, 17% adjusted EPS growth, 92.1% retention, and 6% bookings growth. Fiscal 2027 guidance projects 5–6% revenue and 9–11% EPS growth, supported by AI-driven productivity.

    This is the core positive fundamental news that drove investor sentiment during the quarter.

  • AI products gain traction Lyric HCM adoption jumped 94% and ADP Assist handled 12 million conversations, showing that AI investments are translating into real client usage and productivity gains.

    Highlights a key growth driver and competitive differentiator that is new this period.

  • Jobs data sends mixed signals September private hiring rebounded to 90,000, beating expectations, but a weak June report of 57,000 jobs raised concerns about a potential demand slowdown.

    Jobs data directly affects ADP's client demand and was a major factor in market sentiment.

  • Margin pressure and rising competition PEO pass-through revenue pressures margins and threatens the 70–90 basis point expansion target, while AI-powered payroll competitors erode pricing power, especially in large complex deals where bookings have slowed.

    These are the main risks that could offset ADP's growth and weigh on the stock.

September 2026
▲2▼2

ADP's own jobs data rebounds, but PEO margins and AI rivals loom

  • Q4 earnings beat and AI product adoption ADP beat Q4 2026 earnings and guidance, and more clients are adopting its cloud and AI HR tools like Lyric and Workforce Now Next Gen. That supports higher revenue per client and wider profit margins, which is why the stock has rebounded over the past three months.

    This is the core fundamental driver behind the recent share-price recovery and margin story.

  • September private-sector hiring jumps to 90,000 ADP's own National Employment Report showed private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, well above the 70,000 expected and the first up-month since May. Strong hiring makes ADP's payroll and data services more valuable, lifting investor sentiment.

    This is the freshest and most direct positive data point for ADP's franchise this period.

  • PEO pass-through revenue and margin pressure ADP's PEO business is growing through zero-margin pass-through revenue, which can dilute overall profitability. Management's 70–90 basis point annual margin expansion target could be at risk if PEO margins stay under pressure, a real counterweight to the bullish story.

    It is the main risk flagged in the reporting that could cap ADP's upside.

  • AI-driven payroll competitors threaten pricing power New AI-powered payroll competitors are chipping away at ADP's pricing power, especially on large complex deals where bookings have slowed. If ADP can't keep raising prices, revenue growth and margins could suffer, making the stock less attractive.

    This competitive threat is a key bear case that could offset the positive product and hiring news.

Latest
▲2▼2

ADP's own jobs data rebounds, but PEO margins and AI rivals loom

  • Q4 earnings beat and AI product adoption ADP beat Q4 2026 earnings and guidance, and more clients are adopting its cloud and AI HR tools like Lyric and Workforce Now Next Gen. That supports higher revenue per client and wider profit margins, which is why the stock has rebounded over the past three months.

    This is the core fundamental driver behind the recent share-price recovery and margin story.

  • September private-sector hiring jumps to 90,000 ADP's own National Employment Report showed private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, well above the 70,000 expected and the first up-month since May. Strong hiring makes ADP's payroll and data services more valuable, lifting investor sentiment.

    This is the freshest and most direct positive data point for ADP's franchise this period.

  • PEO pass-through revenue and margin pressure ADP's PEO business is growing through zero-margin pass-through revenue, which can dilute overall profitability. Management's 70–90 basis point annual margin expansion target could be at risk if PEO margins stay under pressure, a real counterweight to the bullish story.

    It is the main risk flagged in the reporting that could cap ADP's upside.

  • AI-driven payroll competitors threaten pricing power New AI-powered payroll competitors are chipping away at ADP's pricing power, especially on large complex deals where bookings have slowed. If ADP can't keep raising prices, revenue growth and margins could suffer, making the stock less attractive.

    This competitive threat is a key bear case that could offset the positive product and hiring news.

July 2026
▲3▼1

ADP beats on strong Q4, guides 5-6% growth as AI drives productivity

  • Strong Q4 and full-year results beat expectations ADP reported 7% revenue growth and 17% adjusted EPS growth in Q4, with full-year revenue of $21.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $11.12. Retention stayed high at 92.1%, and new business bookings grew 6% to $2.2 billion. This shows the core business is healthy and profitable, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new event that directly answers why ADP is moving: strong financial results.

  • Fiscal 2027 guidance points to continued growth ADP guided fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 5-6% and adjusted EPS growth of 9-11%, with margin expansion of 70-90 basis points. The outlook assumes stable macro conditions and includes client funds interest revenue of $1.54-1.56 billion. This gives investors confidence in future earnings, supporting the stock.

    Guidance is a key new driver that shapes expectations for the coming year.

  • AI-powered productivity and Lyric HCM platform drive efficiency ADP highlighted that its Lyric HCM platform saw live clients jump 94% year-over-year, and AI tools like ADP Assist handled 12 million conversations. Management expects AI to boost productivity, allowing headcount to stay flat while reinvesting in sales and tech. This supports margin expansion and long-term growth.

    AI is a central new theme in ADP's strategy and a reason for optimism.

  • Weak June jobs report raises economic concerns The U.S. added only 57,000 jobs in June, half of expectations, with prior months revised down. ADP's own report showed 98,000 private jobs added, but the broader slowdown could reduce demand for payroll and HR services if businesses pull back on hiring. This is a potential headwind.

    This is a new counterweight that could pressure ADP's stock if economic weakness persists.

▲3▼1

ADP beats on strong Q4, guides 5-6% growth as AI drives productivity

  • Strong Q4 and full-year results beat expectations ADP reported 7% revenue growth and 17% adjusted EPS growth in Q4, with full-year revenue of $21.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $11.12. Retention stayed high at 92.1%, and new business bookings grew 6% to $2.2 billion. This shows the core business is healthy and profitable, pushing the stock up.

    This is the main new event that directly answers why ADP is moving: strong financial results.

  • Fiscal 2027 guidance points to continued growth ADP guided fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 5-6% and adjusted EPS growth of 9-11%, with margin expansion of 70-90 basis points. The outlook assumes stable macro conditions and includes client funds interest revenue of $1.54-1.56 billion. This gives investors confidence in future earnings, supporting the stock.

    Guidance is a key new driver that shapes expectations for the coming year.

  • AI-powered productivity and Lyric HCM platform drive efficiency ADP highlighted that its Lyric HCM platform saw live clients jump 94% year-over-year, and AI tools like ADP Assist handled 12 million conversations. Management expects AI to boost productivity, allowing headcount to stay flat while reinvesting in sales and tech. This supports margin expansion and long-term growth.

    AI is a central new theme in ADP's strategy and a reason for optimism.

  • Weak June jobs report raises economic concerns The U.S. added only 57,000 jobs in June, half of expectations, with prior months revised down. ADP's own report showed 98,000 private jobs added, but the broader slowdown could reduce demand for payroll and HR services if businesses pull back on hiring. This is a potential headwind.

    This is a new counterweight that could pressure ADP's stock if economic weakness persists.

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