MINISO Group Holding Limited

Miniso Group Holding Limited reported its interim earnings on August 28, revealing a stark contrast between its booming China business and its struggling global expansion. In China, revenue grew 26.2% in the first half of 2026, the fastest in three years, driven by a membership base that crossed 130 million people, up 31% year over year, with members accounting for 77% of total China sales. However, overseas expansion has weighed on profitability, with adjusted operating profit falling 6% to RMB 1.49 billion and adjusted net profit slipping 1.7% to RMB 1.22 billion, as selling expenses rose to 25.8% of revenue from 23.1% a year earlier due to higher rent and depreciation from directly operated stores. The company's proprietary IP push, including the YOYO brand, generated close to RMB 500 million in revenue in the first half and hit its RMB 1 billion company-wide target by July, while TOP TOY grew revenue 32.7%.

Miniso announced that it expects revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2026 to be between 11.45 billion and 11.55 billion yuan, an increase of about 22% to 23% year on year. Operating profit is expected to be between 1.62 billion and 1.66 billion yuan, up about 5% to 7% year on year; profit for the period is expected to be between 940 million and 960 million yuan, up about 4% to 6% year on year. Basic and diluted earnings per share are expected to be 0.78 yuan to 0.79 yuan, up about 5% to 7% and 6% to 9% respectively year on year. The first-half operating profit growth mainly benefited from a fair value change on an investment in a limited partnership in the artificial intelligence industry, which brought unrealized and mark-to-market gains of about 277 million yuan, but part of the gains was offset by higher selling and distribution expenses and a net exchange loss of about 142 million yuan; profit for the period was also affected by investment income of about 60 million yuan from Yonghui Superstores.

MINISO Group Holding Limited announced a new share repurchase program on June 29, 2026, authorizing the buyback of up to HKD 2 billion of its outstanding ordinary shares and American depositary shares from the open market over a 12-month period starting June 30. The company expects to fund the repurchases from surplus cash on its balance sheet. Earlier in June, CEO and founder Ye Guofu disclosed the purchase of 2.1 million shares at prices between $3.25 and $3.27 for a total of $6.9 million. The stock rose 15 cents to $13.68 in premarket trading. Last month, JPMorgan analyst Kevin Yin lowered the price target on MINISO to $16 from $26 while maintaining an Overweight rating.

The SPDR S&P China ETF, trading under the symbol GXC, has an implied analyst target price of $125.80 per unit based on the weighted average of analyst targets for its underlying holdings. With GXC recently trading near $85.90, this implies a potential upside of 46.44%. Three holdings with notable upside include EHang Holdings Ltd, which has an average analyst target of $19.20 per share, 213.18% above its recent price of $6.13; MINISO Group Holding Ltd, with a target of $22.23, 94.87% above its recent price of $11.41; and Tencent Music Entertainment Group, with a target of $15.17, 80.82% above its recent price of $8.39.

MINISO Group Holding Limited has announced a new HK$2 billion share repurchase program. The board authorized the 2026 Share Repurchase Program, under which the company may repurchase up to HK$2 billion of its ordinary shares and American depositary shares from the open market over a 12-month period starting June 30, 2026. The board expressed full confidence in the business outlook and noted the current share price is below intrinsic value. Under a previous HK$2 billion program adopted in August 2024 and extended to June 30, 2026, the company repurchased approximately HK$1.37 billion in shares. The repurchases will be funded from surplus cash and conducted in compliance with applicable rules.