Oscar Health, Inc. is a healthcare technology company operating in the United States. It offers health plans to individuals, families, employees, and small group markets, along with the +Oscar platform, the Campaign Builder engagement and recommendation platform for providers and payors, and reinsurance products. The company also provides brokerage services and an enrollment platform that lets brokers and consumers shop, buy, and enroll in medical and supplemental health products. Formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc., it changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021, was incorporated in 2012, and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Oscar's record first half and raised guidance drive gains, but cost and policy risks linger
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Record first-half profit and raised 2026 outlook Oscar reported record first-half earnings and lifted its full-year operating profit target by $250 million to $500–$700 million. That tells investors the core business is more profitable than expected, which supports a higher stock price.
This is the main new event that changed the company's profit outlook and directly pushes the stock up.
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Second-half loss implied and cost worries The raised full-year guidance still implies a second-half operating loss of roughly $393–$593 million. Analysts also flagged rising outpatient costs and possible enrollment losses from CMS eligibility checks, which could pressure future profits and the stock.
This is the key counterweight that explains why the stock fell after the guidance hike and why future gains are not guaranteed.
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Membership surges 46% despite weaker ACA market Oscar ended the second quarter with 2.96 million members, up 46% from a year earlier, even as overall ACA enrollment weakened after enhanced subsidies expired. That suggests Oscar is taking market share, which can drive future revenue and profit.
This is a new update on membership growth, a core driver of Oscar's revenue and long-term value.
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Analysts lift estimates but see limited upside After the strong first half, analysts raised earnings estimates and pointed to a low PEG ratio of 0.6. However, some fair-value estimates sit below the current price, and risks remain from subsidy shifts and rising medical costs, so the stock's path depends on sustained margin improvement.
This shows how the market is repricing Oscar after the results, balancing optimism with valuation and policy risks.
Q3 2026
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Oscar's record first half and raised guidance drive gains, but cost and policy risks linger
▲
Record first-half profit and raised 2026 outlook Oscar reported record first-half earnings and lifted its full-year operating profit target by $250 million to $500–$700 million. That tells investors the core business is more profitable than expected, which supports a higher stock price.
This is the main new event that changed the company's profit outlook and directly pushes the stock up.
▼
Second-half loss implied and cost worries The raised full-year guidance still implies a second-half operating loss of roughly $393–$593 million. Analysts also flagged rising outpatient costs and possible enrollment losses from CMS eligibility checks, which could pressure future profits and the stock.
This is the key counterweight that explains why the stock fell after the guidance hike and why future gains are not guaranteed.
▲
Membership surges 46% despite weaker ACA market Oscar ended the second quarter with 2.96 million members, up 46% from a year earlier, even as overall ACA enrollment weakened after enhanced subsidies expired. That suggests Oscar is taking market share, which can drive future revenue and profit.
This is a new update on membership growth, a core driver of Oscar's revenue and long-term value.
◆
Analysts lift estimates but see limited upside After the strong first half, analysts raised earnings estimates and pointed to a low PEG ratio of 0.6. However, some fair-value estimates sit below the current price, and risks remain from subsidy shifts and rising medical costs, so the stock's path depends on sustained margin improvement.
This shows how the market is repricing Oscar after the results, balancing optimism with valuation and policy risks.
News & notes movingOSCR
United States
Biotech & Genomic Medicine
Raymond James Adds Xencor, Calyxt, UnitedHealth to October Healthcare Top Picks
Raymond James has updated its Healthcare Top Picks list for October, adding Xencor, Calyxt, and UnitedHealth Group while removing Relay Therapeutics, Tyra Biosciences, and Oscar Health. Xencor replaces Relay Therapeutics, with the firm anticipating significant interest in Xencor's dataset at ESMO at the end of October and seeing near-term upside on a positive readout and a clear path to pivotal development for XmAb819 in clear cell renal cell carcinoma, even as it maintains a Strong Buy rating on Relay Therapeutics. Calyxt replaces Tyra Biosciences, with Raymond James citing an increasingly derisked setup for both of Calyxt's lead assets, CLYM116 and budoprutug; initial Phase 2 data for CLYM116 is expected next year ahead of a Phase 3 study in IgAN patients, while additional budoprutug data across pMN, ITP, and SLE is due in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the firm noted the subcutaneous formulation could differentiate it from approved anti-CD19 Uplizna. UnitedHealth Group replaces Oscar Health ahead of third-quarter earnings in mid-October, with the firm saying the recent pullback on Stars and midterm election-related concerns creates an attractive setup into what it expects to be a strong quarter. Raymond James said it remains positive on Oscar Health with an Outperform rating but currently prefers UnitedHealth given the monthly nature of the list.
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Oncology Therapeutics ▲Capital
Biotech & Genomic Medicine › Immuno-Oncology / Checkpoint Capital
UNH · Capital · Positive Added to Raymond James' Healthcare Top Picks ahead of Q3 earnings, with the recent Stars-related pullback seen as an attractive setup.
XNCR · Capital · Positive Added to Raymond James' Healthcare Top Picks on anticipated ESMO dataset interest and near-term upside from an XmAb819 readout.
OSCR · Capital · Neutral Raymond James remains positive with an Outperform rating but removed Oscar Health from the Top Picks list in favor of UnitedHealth.
RLAY · Capital · Neutral Removed from the Top Picks list, though Raymond James maintains its Strong Buy rating on Relay Therapeutics.
TYRA · Capital · Neutral Removed from the Top Picks list as Calyxt replaces Tyra Biosciences; no company-specific development cited.
Oscar Health Upgraded to Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy on Surging Estimates
Oscar Health, Inc. has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), a rating reserved for the top 5% of the more than 4,000 stocks covered by the Zacks system. The upgrade reflects a sharp upward trend in earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company climbing 290.1% over the past three months. Oscar Health is expected to earn $1.83 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2026, which represents no year-over-year change. The Zacks Rank is determined solely by a company's changing earnings picture, and Zacks Rank #1 stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The upgrade implies that the stock could move higher in the near term as institutional investors adjust valuations to the improved earnings outlook.
Oscar Health Targets Doubling EPS by 2027, Unveils Lucy AI Marketplace
Oscar Health used its Investor Day to unveil the Lucy Healthcare Marketplace, an AI-driven platform for carriers, brokers, and consumers, and said it aims to double earnings per share by 2027. Management described the EPS target as a core pillar of the company's next phase. CEO statements at the event argued that traditional employer-sponsored health insurance is ending, and Oscar Health intends to focus on individual coverage. The company operates as a US-based healthcare technology firm that pairs insurance products with its own digital infrastructure. The clearest test of whether the update lifts the bull case will be Oscar Health's reported medical loss ratio and operating margin through the 2026 guidance window.
Oscar Health Targets $4 EPS by 2027, Raises 2026 Guidance by $100 Million
Oscar Health said at its investor day that it is on pace to deliver $4 of EPS by 2027, nearly doubling its current earnings per share, and that it can grow revenue at an average of 20% per year through 2029. The company, which now serves more than 3 million members across 20 states, also launched a new business called the Lucy Healthcare Marketplace, which connects about 70 carriers with consumers and brokers for ACA and supplemental products. CFO Scott Blackley said Oscar recently increased its 2026 earnings guidance by $100 million and has doubled its earnings expectation for this year, citing favorable utilization trends, and that it improved its medical loss ratio guidance, with 50 basis points equal to about $100 million. He said 60% of the company's coding is now done using AI agents, up from about 15% earlier this year. Blackley said Oscar sees a large opportunity in transitioning employer-sponsored healthcare into the ACA through a product called Choice on the Lucy marketplace, and expects $4 or greater EPS in 2029.
Artificial Intelligence › Agentic AI & Autonomous Workflows ▲Technology
OSCR · Capital · Positive Oscar Health raised its 2026 earnings guidance by $100 million, doubled this year's EPS expectation, and targets $4 EPS by 2027 on favorable utilization trends.
Brent tops $100, Treasury yields climb as U.S. equities slip
U.S. equities pushed lower on Wednesday as oil kept climbing, with Brent crude breaking above $100 a barrel while U.S.–Iran tensions in the Middle East continued to weigh on sentiment. Treasury yields advanced after the Treasury Department said it will repurchase up to $6 billion of longer-dated notes in Thursday's operation, tripling the size of its last long-end buyback; the 2-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.42%, the 10-year added 5 basis points to 4.84%, and the 30-year gained about 4 basis points near 5.29%. Brent crude futures surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 24, with front-month Brent for November delivery climbing 3.3% to $101.13/bbl and Nymex crude jumping 3.2% to $96.02/bbl, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped from roughly 8 million barrels per day in late August to only 1 million barrels per day this week, according to Rystad Energy. Separately, Anthropic's Alignment Science Lead Evan Hubinger said he "earnestly" believes AI could kill all humans, putting his personal estimate of the probability at more than 10% within the next decade, and the company's latest risk report upgraded the risk from misalignment in high-stakes settings to "low" from "very low." Managed care stocks declined after CVS Health said at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference that it continues to face elevated medical costs, with notable decliners including UnitedHealth, Humana, Clover Health, Alignment Healthcare, Centene, Oscar Health, Elevance Health, and Molina Healthcare.
Oscar Health Membership Surges 46% but Profitability Remains Key
Oscar Health reported membership of 2.96 million at the end of the second quarter of 2026, up 46% year over year, driven by above-market growth during open enrollment and solid retention. The gains came despite weaker overall paid ACA enrollment following the expiration of enhanced subsidies, suggesting Oscar captured market share. The company plans to enter more than 150 additional metropolitan statistical areas by 2027 and sees Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangements as another enrollment channel. However, enrollment is seasonal, with membership declining sequentially after adding roughly 1.1 million members in the first quarter of 2026, and higher premiums and reduced subsidies could drive price-sensitive consumers away. Oscar's stock has gained 108.6% year to date, trading at a price-to-book multiple of 4.5 versus the industry average of 2.67, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved 144.4% and 31.6% north, respectively, in the past 30 days. Among peers, Molina Healthcare's membership decreased 14.3% year over year to around 4.9 million as of June 30, 2026, while Centene has shifted focus to earnings quality over membership growth.
Oscar Health's Strong First Half and Raised Guidance Reshape Investment Story
Oscar Health reported record first-half results and raised its full-year 2026 guidance, prompting analysts to lift earnings estimates and highlight a low PEG ratio of 0.6. The upgraded guidance projects revenue of US$18.7 billion to US$19.0 billion and earnings from operations of US$500 million to US$700 million, reflecting management's confidence in improved profitability. However, risks remain from potential regulatory changes, subsidy shifts, and rising morbidity that could pressure medical loss ratios. The company's long-term narrative targets US$23.8 billion revenue and US$998.5 million earnings by 2029, implying a fair value of US$24.20 per share, a 21% downside to the current price. Some analysts project even higher figures, but the stock's investment case hinges on sustained margin improvement amid policy uncertainty.
Health insurance providers reported strong second-quarter results, with the 12 tracked stocks beating revenue consensus estimates by 2.8% as a group. Humana posted revenues of $40.87 billion, up 26.2% year over year, exceeding expectations by 0.6%. CVS Health delivered the best quarter with revenues of $106.1 billion, up 7.3% and beating estimates by 6.7%, while Progyny was the weakest with revenues of $350.5 million, up 5.3% but missing next-quarter EBITDA guidance significantly. Oscar Health achieved the fastest revenue growth at 70.4% to $4.88 billion, and Centene topped estimates by 13.1% with revenues of $53.58 billion. Despite the beats, the group's stocks are down 5.8% on average since reporting.
Oscar Health Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates but Stock Falls
Oscar Health reported second-quarter results that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, yet its stock declined following the earnings call. Revenue reached $4.88 billion, a 70.4% year-over-year increase and 2.9% above analyst estimates of $4.74 billion, while adjusted EPS of $1.10 far surpassed the $0.38 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $415.3 million versus the $170.9 million expected, and operating margin improved to 8% from negative 8% a year earlier. CEO Mark Bertolini attributed the performance to disciplined pricing, technology-driven cost efficiencies, and strong execution in the individual health insurance market, with membership up 46% and administrative cost ratios at historic lows. During the call, analysts questioned management on outpatient utilization trends, visibility into medical loss ratio guidance, rate positioning for 2027, the ICHRAx partnership, and the financial impact of CMS eligibility reviews on member disenrollment.
Oscar Health raises 2026 operating earnings forecast by $250 million
Oscar Health raised its full-year 2026 operating earnings forecast by $250 million to a range of $500 million to $700 million, while maintaining its revenue guidance of $18.7 billion to $19 billion. The company reported record first-half profitability, including $1.1 billion in operating earnings and $1 billion in net income, with second-quarter revenue climbing 70% year over year to $4.9 billion. Membership increased 46% to 2.96 million, and the medical loss ratio improved to 79.2%. The improved outlook reflects favorable utilization, pricing discipline, fixed-cost leverage, and technology-related savings. Management expects membership churn to increase in the second half due to CMS eligibility and program-integrity reviews, but characterized the change as timing-related and said it does not affect the full-year revenue outlook.
Oscar Health Expected to Post Earnings Growth Next Week
Wall Street expects Oscar Health to report a year-over-year earnings increase when it releases second-quarter results on August 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for earnings of $0.43 per share, up 148.3% from the prior-year period, on revenues of $4.93 billion, a 72% increase. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 34.33% higher over the past 30 days, and the Most Accurate Estimate is above the consensus, yielding a positive Earnings ESP of 48.85%. Combined with a Zacks Rank #1, this suggests Oscar Health is likely to beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company has topped estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a 71.07% surprise last quarter when it reported $2.07 versus expectations of $1.21.
Five Insurers Poised to Beat Second-Quarter Earnings Estimates
Five insurance companies are positioned to outperform second-quarter earnings expectations, according to Zacks Investment Research. The firms—Cincinnati Financial Corporation, Reinsurance Group of America, Oscar Health, Willis Towers Watson, and Aflac—each carry a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3, a combination that historically signals a higher likelihood of an earnings beat. The industry’s results are expected to benefit from prudent pricing, exposure growth, portfolio optimization, strong retention, and ongoing digital acceleration, along with a relatively subdued catastrophe environment. Consensus estimates show Reinsurance Group of America at $6.52 per share, up 38.1% year over year, and Oscar Health at 45 cents, up 150.6%, while Cincinnati Financial is pegged at $1.82, Willis Towers Watson at $3.13, and Aflac at $1.77.
Zacks Highlights Five Multiline Insurers to Buy Amid Softening Pricing
Zacks Equity Research has identified Oscar Health, Radian Group, CNO Financial Group, Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd., and Horace Mann Educators as multiline insurance stocks to buy, citing product diversification and digitalization as key industry drivers. The Zacks Multiline Insurance industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 169, placing it in the bottom 32% of 247 industries, with analysts revising aggregate earnings estimates downward by 6.4% for the current year. Despite this, the report points to diversified portfolios, merger and acquisition activity, and increased technology adoption as trends shaping the industry's future. Oscar Health and Pelagos Insurance Capital hold a Zacks Rank of 1, or Strong Buy, while Horace Mann Educators, CNO Financial Group, and Radian Group carry a Zacks Rank of 2, or Buy. The industry has gained 4.8% year to date, underperforming the Finance sector's 5.9% rise and the S&P 500's 9.7% increase.
Elevance Health shares drop 8% after Q2 benefit expense ratio rises, dragging down peers
Elevance Health shares fell about 8% in premarket trading after the insurer reported a higher-than-expected benefit expense ratio in its second quarter of 2026, sending shares of Molina Healthcare, Centene, and Oscar Health lower. The benefit expense ratio, which measures the proportion of premiums paid out for medical care, rose 80 basis points year-over-year to 89.7%, exceeding the 90.15% projected by analysts according to LSEG data. Elevance attributed the increase mainly to rising medical cost trends in its Government businesses. Despite beating earnings estimates with adjusted earnings per share of $7.45 and raising its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00 from $26.75, total operating revenue grew only about 1% year-over-year to $49.8 billion, while total medical membership dropped roughly 2% to about 44.9 million amid declines in Medicaid and Medicare enrollees.
Health Insurance Providers Stocks Q1 In Review: Alignment Healthcare Vs Peers
Alignment Healthcare reported first-quarter revenues of $1.24 billion, up 33.3% year on year, exceeding analysts' expectations by 1.3%. The company added 48,500 customers to reach a total of 284,800, but its EBITDA guidance for the next quarter missed analysts' expectations, making it the weakest guidance update among the 12 health insurance providers stocks tracked. CVS Health posted the biggest analyst estimate beat with revenues of $100.4 billion, up 6.2% year on year, while Cencora had the weakest quarter with revenues of $78.36 billion, falling short of expectations by 3.9%. Oscar Health reported revenues of $4.65 billion, up 52.6% year on year, but lagged analysts' expectations by 5.7%, and Progyny reported revenues of $328.5 million, up 1.4% year on year, surpassing expectations by 0.7% and achieving the highest guidance raise among its peers. Overall, the group's revenues beat consensus estimates by 1.4%, and share prices have risen 36.3% on average since the latest earnings results.
Health Insurers Post Strong Q1 as CVS Leads and Cencora Lags
Health insurance providers tracked by StockStory reported a strong first quarter, with aggregate revenues beating analyst consensus estimates by 1.4% and next-quarter revenue guidance in line. CVS Health was the standout, reporting revenues of $100.4 billion, up 6.2% year on year and exceeding expectations by 6.3%, while also beating full-year EPS guidance estimates. Cigna posted revenues of $68.52 billion, up 4.7% and beating estimates by 3%, but its stock fell 3.8% as investor expectations ran higher than published projections. Cencora was the weakest performer, with revenues of $78.36 billion missing estimates by 3.9%, sending its shares down 8.1%. Oscar Health saw revenues jump 52.6% to $4.65 billion, though that still came in 5.7% below expectations, while Centene topped estimates by 6.2% with revenues of $49.94 billion, up 7.1%, and lost 1.36 million customers to end the quarter with 26.27 million. On average, share prices across the 12-stock group have risen 31.4% since the latest earnings results.
Oscar Health Touted as Top Pick While Inspire Medical and IQVIA Are Flagged for Caution
StockStory highlights Oscar Health as a healthcare stock with impressive fundamentals while recommending caution on Inspire Medical Systems and IQVIA. Oscar Health, with a market cap of $8.71 billion, posted annual revenue growth of 42.6% over the last two years and EPS compounding at 31.5% annually over four years, alongside a free cash flow margin expansion of 19.9 percentage points. In contrast, Inspire Medical Systems faces an estimated 8% sales decline and trades at 42.3x forward P/E on a $1.22 billion market cap, while IQVIA's 5.1% annual revenue growth and stagnant free cash flow margin raise concerns, with shares at $167.81 and a 12.8x forward P/E.
INSP · Capital · Negative Article flags Inspire Medical for caution due to estimated 8% sales decline and high forward P/E.
IQV · Capital · Negative Article flags IQVIA for caution due to low revenue growth and stagnant free cash flow margin.
OSCR · Capital · Positive Article highlights Oscar Health as a top pick with strong revenue growth, EPS compounding, and expanding free cash flow margin.
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