BCP stands out for dividends and SAF support, with a base-case target of 53.50 baht

โดย HoonVision·TH·Read original
Summary · why it matters

KGI Securities Thailand maintains its 2026 dividend per share forecast for BCP at 5.30 baht, up 405% from 1.05 baht in 2025, expecting record profit of 31.4 billion baht and applying a conservative payout ratio of 25%. Management has confirmed a policy of paying at least 30% of net profit after required reserves, depending on economic conditions, cash flow, and investment plans. BCP also has a share buyback program worth up to 3.8 billion baht during 2025-2028, with the first phase completed on 15 June 2026, repurchasing 9.67 million shares, or 0.66% of outstanding shares, worth 336 million baht from a maximum approved amount of 1.1 billion baht. Third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to decline from the previous quarter because refining margins fell due to higher crude premium costs, insurance, and freight, even though gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel spreads remained strong at 30.0, 62.3, and 67.8 US dollars per barrel, respectively. Refining utilization is expected to fall 2%-6% to 260-270 thousand barrels per day because middle distillate storage tanks are nearly full after the Energy Ministry banned diesel exports from 6 March. However, profit from the SAF project, in which BCP holds 80% and BBGI holds 20%, is expected to nearly double because this is the first quarter of full recognition after commercial operations began on 18 May. Bloomberg consensus recommendations are 19 buys, 2 holds, and 0 sells, with an average target price of 53.50 baht as of 25 August. The share price is expected to be supported by strong refining margins, a dividend yield of 10.3%, and SAF profit, making BCP the top pick in the refining sector, followed by SPRC and TOP.

Impact on assets 4

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 2 stocks
Synthetic Biology (non-pharma)▲ · 1 stocks
BBGI PCL
BBGI
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

SAF project profit nearly doubles with full recognition, benefiting BBGI's 20% stake.

Energy▲ · 1 stocks
Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
± MixedSupplyrelevance

Refining margins fell due to higher crude premium costs and diesel export ban, but strong product spreads may offset.

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