Analyst Forecasts

Global Securities, or GBS, says King Gen Public Company Limited, or KGEN, is entering a turnaround phase, raising its stake in Omoda & Jaecoo Manufacturing (Thailand) Company Limited, which operates the electric vehicle plants for the OMODA JAECOO and CHERY brands, from the current 43.7% to 51% in early July, and then to 60% in late July to early August. This will shift revenue recognition from the share of profit of an associate to full consolidation of both revenue and profit. Management expects that after the stake increase, revenue will grow significantly year on year to 25 billion baht, with a net profit margin of 2.5-3.0%, or roughly 600-700 million baht. Previously, KGEN reported second-quarter 2026 profit of 37 million baht, up 171% quarter on quarter and 152% year on year, after losses in the first quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2025. The main driver was the share of profit from its investment in that associate, whose production line began operating on 20 April 2026, while revenue from sales and services grew to 227 million baht, up 8% quarter on quarter and 36% year on year. Bookings for JAECOO and OMODA electric vehicles at the Big Motor Sale 2026, held from 21-30 August 2026, totaled 5,028 units, with deliveries scheduled for September to October 2026, an additional factor supporting revenue and profit growth. The current share price still cannot be assigned a P/E ratio because the company has posted continuous losses from 2022 through the first six months of 2026, though earnings are expected to turn around from 2026 onward. The stock trades at a P/BV ratio of 2.58 times, above its one-year, two-year and three-year averages of 2.56, 2.30 and 2.10 times respectively.

FactSet Research Systems reported the largest quarterly jump in contract value in its history, with annual subscription value rising 7% organically to $2.568 billion in fiscal 2026, beating the top of management's own guidance. The fourth quarter alone added $86 million, retention held above 95%, and every region grew faster than a year earlier, led by Asia Pacific at 10.6%. AI-related products accounted for at least 10% of new subscription value in the fourth quarter, more than all of fiscal 2025 combined, with over 650 clients already accessing FactSet data through its MCP servers. Full-year adjusted operating margin slipped 1.8 percentage points to 34.5% on heavy infrastructure and cybersecurity spending, and management guided fiscal 2027 organic subscription growth to 5% to 6.5% with earnings per share of $19.25 to $19.65. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.95 as of October 2, with short sellers holding 12.43% of the float ahead of the November 10 Investor Day.

Jabil reported fourth-quarter revenue up 29% year over year and core earnings per share up 34% to $4.40, and guided fiscal 2027 core EPS to $17.55, another gain of about 34%. The company generated $14.4 billion of AI-related revenue in fiscal 2026 and expects $22.1 billion in fiscal 2027, a 54% increase, with six customers in the segment expected to top $1 billion each in fiscal 2027. Jabil supported $36.0 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026 on just $470 million of net capital spending, lifting core return on invested capital to 59%, nearly triple the fiscal 2020 level, and buybacks absorbed about $1.1 billion of free cash flow during the year. On the risk side, chief supply chain officer Francis McKay said memory is being pulled toward AI and hyperscale buyers, squeezing other markets, and Connected Living is expected to shrink 15% to $2.3 billion, while healthcare fell short in the fourth quarter on equipment delays and a slipped customer program. Jabil is adding more than $8.5 billion of revenue in fiscal 2027, which management called unprecedented, and a second hyperscale customer is expected to pass 10% of total revenue, while net inventory days of 64 remain above the 55 to 60 day target.

The Yamagata Bank, Ltd. and Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. agreed on 1 October 2026 to a memorandum of understanding for a comprehensive business alliance covering the integration of securities accounts, expanded intermediary services, and advanced consulting capabilities for customers in Yamagata Prefecture and nearby regions. Under the plan, Daiwa Securities will transfer and integrate most local securities accounts while seconding specialists into Yamagata Bank, a move that could reshape how full-service investment and inheritance advice is delivered in the region. The impact will depend on the eventual 2027 agreement and 2028 roll out, with the alliance potentially acting as a short term catalyst if investors factor in higher fee income, stickier customer relationships, or better use of Daiwa's product shelf. At the same time, transferring most securities accounts and relying on an intermediary model introduces execution and relationship risks alongside existing concerns about low return on equity, volatile shares and an inexperienced board. A single Simply Wall St Community fair value estimate for Yamagata Bank clusters at ¥1,348.60 per share, well below the current market price.

The research team at Phillip Securities expects the SET Index next week, from October 5 to October 9, 2026, to move sideways within a range of 1,560 to 1,590 points, with the main pressure coming from external sentiment, including concerns over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and FOMC Minutes that are likely to reflect a hawkish stance. Meanwhile, Logan, a hawkish Fed governor, is expected to voice concern over the inflation outlook, which could keep bond yields elevated and weigh on equity valuations, particularly in the technology sector. In this context, the research team sees banking stocks as attractive as a safe haven. It also advises keeping an eye on Thailand's September CPI release, with the market expecting headline CPI to rise 3.10% year on year, accelerating significantly from 2.53% year on year, while core CPI is expected to rise 1.58% year on year, compared with 1.44% year on year in August. This is consistent with domestic retail diesel prices in September, which rose 26.0% year on year, accelerating from 17.7% year on year in August. However, the research team sees limited downside, given expectations that the flood situation, especially in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, will ease and that people will enter the government's relief process, which the research team views as an opportunity to speculate on repair and construction stocks. Meanwhile, on speculation over third-quarter 2026 earnings, the Bloomberg Consensus expects earnings per share in that quarter to grow 18.01% year on year, and China's Golden Week is likely to be a boost for tourism stocks and related shares. For global stock markets, the research team expects sideways to sideways-down trading, with the US services PMI still likely to remain above the 50 level. It recommends a selective buy on large-cap US stocks with revenue and profit growth trends that are likely to continue, a wait-and-see approach on the Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese markets, which are closed for extended holidays, and gradual accumulation of gold when prices weaken to the $4,000 to $4,100 per ounce level.

Innovest X Securities has released its fourth-quarter 2026 investment strategy, warning investors to watch for seven risk signals stemming from fragile macroeconomic factors, and advising them to avoid chasing prices, to select stocks with strong financial positions, and to diversify across a range of assets. Suthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said the prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran could create a chain of risk running from elevated oil prices to inflation, financing costs, and the baht. He views developed markets such as the United States as more attractive than emerging markets, while the Thai stock market still benefits from accelerated government disbursement and investment. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Chief Economist, maintained his GDP forecasts for Thailand in 2026 and 2027 at 2.0%, even with the flooding in Bangkok, because the impact is limited in scope and the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 measures will offset it. He also raised his average oil price assumptions for 2026 and 2027 to 90 and 80 US dollars per barrel, respectively. Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Chief Investment Strategist, said corporate earnings continue to support the market, with the earnings-per-share estimate for the Thai stock market rising steadily on the back of the energy sector, and set a SET Index target of 1,715 points for 2027, with the 1,550-point area a level at which gradual accumulation starts to look attractive. Domestic standout stocks include AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB, and PR9, while foreign stocks focus on AI beneficiaries such as Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tencent, and Alibaba. Jaranpong Rattanasopha, Head of Investment Product Specialist, recommended the M-SCHD fund, which invests through the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, or SCHD, whose technology holdings are less than 10%, compared with nearly 40% for the S&P 500, and whose correlation with the S&P 500 has fallen to about 0.3, the lowest level since the fund was established in 2011. Also available are the M-SCHG fund, which invests in the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF, or SCHG, and DR23, which provides access to US ETFs under BlackRock's iShares brand through three securities: IVV23 tracking the S&P 500, IQQ23 tracking the Nasdaq-100, and SOXX23 tracking the semiconductor group.

Bualuang Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is clearly on an uptrend from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027, with a chance to test 1,780 points in a positive scenario. In its base case, it targets the SET at 1,710 points by the end of 2027, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times, about 0.25 standard deviations below the 10-year average. The decline in overall earnings comes mainly from upstream energy, refineries and petrochemicals, as oil prices, refining margins and petrochemical spreads trend down from a high base in 2026. Meanwhile, the earnings growth leaders in 2027 shift to electronics, driven by demand for AI and data center-related components, along with tourism and transport, and consumer goods retail. Analysts cite three positive drivers: the global technology wave supporting exports, investment and electricity demand, with Thai electronics exports expected to grow 55% in 2026 and 40% in 2027, while FDI investment is expected to grow 50% and 25% respectively. The global industrial cycle is still in an early recovery phase that began in March 2026, with the US Manufacturing PMI at 53.0 in August 2026, and foreign capital is likely to keep flowing in. A study of data from 2016 to 2026 found that when six factors were simultaneously above their averages, foreign capital inflows over the following three months were positive 89% of the time, with a median inflow of 34 billion baht. Analysts nonetheless warn of risks from a prolonged war and one more Fed rate hike to 4.25%, which could pressure SET valuations, even though the market still has a cushion from an earnings yield gap of 4.8%, above the 10-year average of 4.0%. They also lay out a three-phase portfolio strategy. Phase one, in the fourth quarter of 2026, uses a barbell strategy focused on PTT, PTTGC, GULF, GPSC, GUNKUL, CRC, COM7, AOT, AWC, CENTEL, BH and BDMS, while gradually accumulating CBG, ICHI and BGRIM. Phase two, in the first half of 2027, rotates from cyclical winners to anti-commodity and earnings recovery plays. Phase three, in the second half of 2027, shifts to a core-satellite strategy.

Citi said U.S. equities could face increased political risk ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with historical patterns pointing to weaker performance into the vote followed by a recovery as election uncertainty fades. The bank said midterm election years have historically produced the weakest equity performance of the four-year presidential cycle, and it expects an election-related risk premium to build before voting, typically beginning about 50 business days ahead of the election and peaking in the weeks before it. Citi's analysis suggests the main equity impact could come from uncertainty rather than the election result itself, with stocks historically selling off ahead of midterms before staging a relief rally into year-end regardless of the eventual outcome. A shift toward divided government could also affect markets through fiscal policy expectations, as divided Congresses have historically been supportive for bonds because political gridlock reduces expectations for major fiscal stimulus or sweeping legislation. The bank cautioned that the current cycle has additional complications, including a large U.S. fiscal deficit and debt-ceiling negotiations expected in 2027, which could limit how much historical election patterns translate into market moves this time.

Sinch's fair value estimate has been lifted to about SEK 44.83 from SEK 41.00, a roughly 9.3% increase, as analysts diverge sharply on the company's growth and execution outlook. Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded Sinch to Overweight from Neutral with a SEK 43 price target, while JPMorgan raised its target to SEK 66 from SEK 45 and kept an Overweight rating. On the bearish side, Pareto initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a SEK 35 target, and DNB Carnegie cut the stock to Hold from Buy with a SEK 55 target. The revised valuation also reflects revenue growth moving from about 4.32% to roughly 6.14%, profit margin from about 4.07% to roughly 5.07%, and a future P/E shifting from about 22.82x to roughly 19.32x. The analyst debate centers on Sinch's use of AI, machine learning and partnerships with platforms like Salesforce and Microsoft, the role of omnichannel messaging and RCS rollout in its revenue mix, and execution risks including slow organic net sales growth and competitive pressure in U.S. messaging.

The central fair value estimate for Nebius Group has been lowered to US$283.58 from US$312.67, reflecting more cautious Street research that weighs enthusiasm for the company's AI-focused cloud infrastructure against concerns over valuation, capital needs and execution risk. The revision came alongside adjustments to the underlying model assumptions: the revenue growth assumption moved from 181.88% to 179.89%, the net profit margin input from 7.91% to 6.96%, the future P/E multiple from 57.25x to 59.17x, and the discount rate from 8.63% to 8.73%. On the bullish side, William Blair described Nebius as not just another neocloud, citing infrastructure scale, software capabilities and major customer relationships, while Buy and Outperform ratings from Goldman Sachs, Citi, BofA, Baird, Truist, Northland, Freedom Capital and BNP Paribas carried price targets in some cases above US$300, and above US$400 and US$390 for Northland and BNP Paribas respectively. On the bearish side, Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a US$84 price target, questioning whether equity markets fully reflect leverage and off-balance-sheet commitments tied to AI infrastructure, while Piper Sandler and BTG Pactual sat at Neutral with price targets in the low US$200s, flagging a more balanced risk and reward profile including earlier concerns around the Vineland data center and comparisons with peer CoreWeave.