Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited

Brokers remain positive on agricultural and food stocks, with natural rubber prices up 2.8% from the previous week to a 13-year high on tight supply after heavy rain and flooding in growing areas. Sugar prices rose 1.4% on concerns over a super El Nino phenomenon, with the US Department of Agriculture expecting Thai sugar output in the 2026/27 production year to fall by about 15-17%. Domestic broiler prices held steady at 45.50 baht per kilogram, above the cost of about 37.50 baht per kilogram, and marked their highest level in more than three years since June 2023. Thai pork prices fell 5.7% from the previous week to 66.50 baht per kilogram on heavy rain and slowing purchasing power ahead of the vegetarian festival. Krungsri Securities maintains a positive view on the agricultural and food sector, picking TFG as its top long-term stock with a target price of 14.20 baht, an expected dividend yield of about 8% and quarterly dividend payments, while also highlighting TVO, STA and NER as stocks that benefit from the super El Nino theme. Pi Securities gives the meat sector a market-weight rating and picks GFPT as its top stock, with Thai chicken exports in September worth a total of about 401 million US dollars, up 6% from a year earlier.

Trinity Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will fluctuate within a range of 1,500-1,700 points, noting that the current index level has fallen into a zone where reward clearly outweighs risk. For those who still hold Thai stocks at low levels, or who need to invest to reduce taxes this year, the current index area is seen as an opportunity to gradually accumulate (Buy the Dip). As for the investment strategy for the fourth quarter, the research department recommends a defensive approach focused on its quarterly recommended stocks, namely BTG, TFG, AWC, ERW, CRC, COM7, STA, TVO, AMATA and STECON.

Tisco Securities has upgraded Thai Foods Group, or TFG, to "BUY" with a rolled-over 2027 target price of 12.70 baht, based on a PER of 9 times, or the sector average plus 0.5 standard deviations, up from 7.4 times previously. It also raised its 2026-2027 profit forecasts by 3% and 8% respectively, citing a retail business growing faster than expected and recovering pork and chicken prices, and said it believes earnings passed their bottom in the second quarter of 2026. ASL Securities, meanwhile, gave a "BUY" rating with a 2027 forecast target price of 12.50 baht, noting that the shift to market-driven retail is an important new S-curve. TFG's total revenue rose from about 34 billion baht in 2021 to 72 billion baht in 2025, an average growth rate of roughly 16% a year, and in 2026 the company aims to open another 260 branches, bringing the total to 875 branches by year-end, after opening 133 branches in the first half, or 51% of the full-year target. ASL estimates 2026 net profit at about 7 billion baht, down 5.5% from the previous year, while total revenue still grows to roughly 76 billion baht, up 5.5%, and it estimates ROE at about 33% and dividend yield at 6.6%, compared with sector averages of 16.14% and 4.4% respectively.

Analysts at Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have unveiled their Thai equity investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting Thailand's investment upcycle, driven by data centre investment and the PDP26 plan, to support growth momentum from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2027. They expect power generation capacity serving data centres to rise to 5–7GW by 2030, and have raised their SET index target to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 target based on a 2027 SET EPS of 105 points and a long-term average PE of 16 times. For the fourth quarter of 2026, they highlight two themes: stocks benefiting from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, and stocks with earnings recovery coupled with cost pass-through ability and room for prices to catch up, namely SCGP and CPALL. Meanwhile, analysts at InnovestX Securities have raised their 2026 SET target from 1,600 points to 1,700 points to reflect a stronger-than-expected second quarter of 2026, robust investment and economic stimulus measures, viewing 1,550 points as an attractive level for gradual accumulation, and selecting AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9 as their top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities see global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 entering a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors still supporting the market. They estimate the SET index trading range at 1,500–1,700 points, with a base case of around 1,630 points calculated from a forward PE of 14.8 times multiplied by this year's EPS of 110 baht, and recommend a sector rotation and stock selection strategy across five favoured groups: livestock, BTG and TFG; tourism, AWC and ERW; retail with company-specific catalysts, CRC and COM7; agricultural products, STA and TVO; and beneficiaries of private-sector investment, AMATA and STECON.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, is expanding production capacity for its cooked meat product group after a large backlog of orders pushed its existing plants close to full capacity, in order to handle rising orders and deliveries to customers, particularly in 2027. CEO Phet Nanthawisai told the Stock Vision news team that recent flooding affected roughly 7 to 8 branches of its Thai Foods Fresh Market retail chain, or TFM, out of a total of 748 branches. The company aims to expand to 875 branches by the end of 2026 and has already managed to restore logistics in the flood-hit areas by more than 90%. For the outlook in the third quarter of 2026, results are expected to be solid, supported by appropriate product prices and lower raw material costs. In the fourth quarter of 2026 and continuing into 2027, the company expects business momentum to remain positive, driven by growing demand for food products and tighter market supply after the floods hit livestock farms of medium-sized and small-scale farmers. TFG's main export markets, namely Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan and parts of China, still offer room for further expansion thanks to rising agricultural commodity prices, as well as trends toward food security and increased stockpiling of reserves for national security by trading partner countries.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities said that in the fourth quarter of 2026, the Thai capital market has an interesting issue arising from CAPPED WEIGHT index rebalancing. The SET50 index has a rule capping any single stock's weight at no more than 10%, creating a MEAN REVERSION phenomenon: when large-cap stocks decline in price, their FLOATING WEIGHT falls, for example DELTA dropping from 10% to 7.28%. When the end-of-quarter REBALANCE arrives, PASSIVE FUNDs must buy the stocks that fell heavily to top their weights back up to 10%, and sell stocks that have risen or whose weight exceeds 10%. The research team calculated the 10 stocks that will be added to in the fourth-quarter 2026 round, with DELTA benefiting the most from the top-up back to 10% from 7.28%, followed by MRDIYT, MINT, THAI, TFG, BANPU, ADVANC, CPN, CPALL and AOT. This group is expected to see price support from PASSIVE FUND money flows before October.

Three brokerages issued their daily investment strategy views. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move sideways in a range of 1,572-1,585 points, with attention on tonight's Fed meeting, where the market assigns a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike to 3.75-4%, while also watching the Fed Chair's statement and the Dot Plot for signals on the interest rate path in 2027. Crude oil prices also climbed to 109 US dollars per barrel on supply disruptions in Saudi Arabia and Libya. The recommended strategy is a Barbell approach, parking short-term funds in Commodity-Bank-Defensive plays and rotating into Value-Domestic Plays for the medium to long term. Today's top pick is BBL with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 240 baht, expecting loan growth to accelerate in the second half of 2026 and trading at a PBV of only 0.6 times, offering a dividend yield above 5% per year. Meanwhile, Kingsford Securities assesses the SET range at 1,567-1,629 points and recommends gradually accumulating Domestic Play names such as BBL, KKP, AMATA, GULF, BGRIM, GUNKUL, STECON and BEM, while giving TFG a trading Buy with an IAA Consensus target price of 12.50 baht, and BDMS a Buy with a target price of 25.00 baht. DAOL Securities expects the index to move sideways after DELTA weighed on the index yesterday. Today's top pick is KLINIQ with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 35.00 baht, with earnings in the second half of 2026 expected to grow year on year and half on half, supported by the expansion of 13 branches, double-digit same-store sales growth and gross margin expansion, maintaining its 2026 earnings forecast growth of 476 million baht, or up 31% year on year.

Krungsri Securities said in an analysis that over the past week rubber prices rose 4.8% week-on-week on tight supply after heavy rain and flooding in Thailand and Vietnam reduced tapping, compounded by El Niño concerns and rising orders from tire makers stockpiling raw materials for the fourth quarter of 2026. Sugar prices rose 1.0% week-on-week, extending gains for a sixth consecutive week, on concerns that El Niño and wildfires in Brazil will pressure output. Soybean prices rose 0.9% week-on-week on strong Chinese demand, while crude palm oil prices fell 0.4% week-on-week after Malaysia reported a slight seasonal rise in end-month inventories. The research team rates the sector Bullish and keeps TFG as its Top pick for long-term investment, with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 14.20 baht, citing store expansion, raw material costs locked in through the third quarter of 2027, and a dividend yield of about 8% per year paid quarterly. It also sees TVO, STA and NER as the stocks benefiting most clearly from the Super El Niño theme.

Petch Nantawisai, Chief Executive Officer of Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, disclosed that pork and chicken prices are likely to remain at high levels continuously through around mid-2027, because demand for meat consumption continues to recover while market output cannot keep pace with demand. As a result, prices have not fallen as the market had expected after the Chinese New Year festival and may rise further at certain periods. Small operators continue to face pressure from commodity input costs, oil prices, and disease outbreaks, with some groups forced to cut production capacity. Meanwhile, large operators have an advantage in farm management and disease control, allowing them to maintain production levels and gradually increase capacity. On business strategy, TFG is pressing ahead with expanding its retail business, Thaifoods Fresh Market, and expects to have a total of approximately 860 to 870 branches by the end of 2026, with a target of opening another 200 to 250 branches in 2027. At the same time, exports continue to grow, especially to the Japanese, European, and United Kingdom markets, with Japan now entering its high season. Export products cover fresh frozen chicken and processed cooked chicken. In Vietnam, the company is the country's third-largest pork producer and is in the process of investing further in broiler breeder farms. On production costs, the company locked in soybean meal prices in advance starting in late 2025, helping overall costs remain at a low level. This year it has invested in expanding back-end infrastructure, including pork and chicken slaughterhouses as well as breeder farms, and expects to clearly begin seeing the benefits from 2027 onward.

KGI Securities has raised its investment weighting for the food sector to "overweight" from "neutral," stating that tighter livestock supply and higher meat product prices will drive profit recovery in the second half of 2026 through 2027, outweighing pressure from potentially higher animal feed costs. The research house cited the August 2026 update report from the World Meteorological Organization, which said the probability of El Niño intensifying to a very strong level has increased and could persist into early 2027. Domestic meat prices remain firm, with broiler chicken prices up 9% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter at 45.5 baht per kilogram. Pork prices were flat year-on-year but rose 11% quarter-on-quarter to 75.5 baht per kilogram. Sensitivity analysis showed that every 0.1 percentage point increase in gross profit margin would boost 2027 forecast net profit for Betagro, GFPT and Thaifoods Group by approximately 2.4%, 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. GFPT is the top pick with a target price of 11.40 baht, while BTG remains rated positive with a target price of 25.40 baht. TFG has no rating.

El Niño is likely to persist into early 2027, with NOAA data indicating an 81% chance of it developing into a VERY STRONG EL NIÑO during October-December 2026, leading to drought in Thailand and Asia. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market is less affected than other regions due to its index structure, where commodity-linked and banking stocks together account for more than half of the market. According to Mr. Pharadorn Teanprasert, Director of Research at Asia Plus Securities, beneficiary stocks include agricultural, food, and vegetable oil sectors such as KSL, KTIS, BRR, CPF, TFG, GFPT, and TVO, as well as energy and refinery groups like TOP, SPRC, IRPC, and BCP, due to potentially higher refining margins. Commercial banks also benefit from inflation and interest rate spreads. The SET Index has a 30% weight in commodities and 20% in banks, making Thailand an attractive haven during global supply shocks.

TFG, or Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, expects a strong business recovery in the second half of 2026, supported by government economic stimulus measures and expanding exports, which have driven up domestic chicken and pork prices. Live chicken prices are around 40.50 baht per kilogram, and pork is at 72-74 baht per kilogram, up 5-7% from the previous period. Meanwhile, the retail business through Thai Fresh Mart has adjusted its branch expansion target to 875 outlets by year-end, up from 850, with currently about 750 branches. The export business, with Japan and Europe as key markets, will enter its high season in the third quarter and maintain momentum through year-end. Regarding investment in Vietnam, the company has about 70,000 breeding sows and sells nearly 120,000-130,000 pigs per month. For 2026, it aims to increase pig production capacity by 20%, and by another 25% in 2027. It has also started chicken farming in Vietnam and is preparing to start its animal feed plant with a monthly production capacity of 100,000 tons in September 2026 to reduce costs and improve production efficiency. The company maintains its 2026 revenue growth target of 10-15%.

Thai Foods Group (TFG) has unveiled its plan for the second half of 2026, expressing confidence in achieving record-high revenue. The Thai Foods Fresh Market serves as the new S-curve, driving the number of branches from the current 748 to a target of 875 by year-end, aiming to boost margins through direct retail channels and reduce volatility from agricultural commodity prices. Additionally, the company is expanding its business in Vietnam, including animal feed plants, pig farms, and an integrated chicken business, in line with growing demand. Management is confident that pig and chicken prices have bottomed out, leading to outstanding performance in the second half and record all-time high revenue for the full year.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, signals continued growth in the second half of 2026, after expecting that pork and chicken prices have passed their lowest point of the year and are trending upward. Meanwhile, its retail business, Thai Foods Fresh Market, is rapidly expanding its branches, now totaling 748, with plans to reach 875 by year-end, reinforcing its role as a New S-Curve and the full transition to a Market Driven model. In Vietnam, the company is investing in animal feed plants, expanding its chicken business and pig farms, aiming to create a new long-term growth engine. Confident that this year's revenue will grow to an all-time high, the Analyst Meeting was recently held at the Shinawatra Tower 3 building.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand's board has resolved to appoint Benchakorn Suwannakiri as Deputy Manager and Head of Corporate Strategy and Finance, effective from October 1, 2026. Meanwhile, Bangkok Bank announced an interim dividend of 2.00 baht per share, with the shareholder record date set for September 10 and payment on September 25, 2026. AOT is running a 'Shop, Fly, Fun, Win' campaign offering cash vouchers and free flight tickets to passengers who meet spending conditions. ESTAR has partnered with Krungsri Ayudhya to enhance its Wealth customer services. BIZ's second-quarter 2026 profit grew 87%, and TFG is expanding Thai Foods Fresh Market to 875 branches, confident of 10-15% revenue growth this year.

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Thai Foods Group, or TFG, said higher pork prices are directly boosting its revenue and profit, while chicken prices have also risen as a substitute product. Chief Executive Officer Petch Nantawisai said export demand for chicken in Europe, the United Kingdom, and Japan remains strong from the third quarter through mid-fourth quarter of 2026. The company has locked in soybean and soybean meal prices until the end of 2026, helping keep feed costs low and stable, and aims to expand Thai Foods Fresh Market to 875 branches by the end of this year and 1,075 branches by the end of next year. Sittiphan Thanakiatphinyo, president of the National Swine Raisers Association, said farm-gate pork prices are at 72 to 74 baht per kilogram, about 1 to 2 baht above cost, and are expected to hold steady until mid-September 2026 before easing slightly during the vegetarian festival.

The Department of Internal Trade met with the Swine Raisers Association, broiler and layer associations, and major operators on 20 August 2026 to monitor price conditions and manage supply balance. It said consumption demand has continued to rise under the Thai Helps Thai Plus programme, causing farm-gate prices to adjust in line with market mechanisms. Mr. Sitthiphan Thanakiatphinyo, president of the National Swine Raisers Association, said live hog farm-gate prices are at 72 to 74 baht per kilogramme, 1 to 2 baht above cost, and may edge up slightly over the next one to two weeks before stabilising until mid-September. Kasikorn Securities assessed that farm-gate pork prices are likely to rise by 2 baht per kilogramme because output has fallen as pigs grow more slowly and face higher illness risk during the rainy season, which is positive for CPF, BTG and TFG if feed costs do not increase.

CGS International Thailand, or CGSI, has raised its year-end 2026 target for the SET Index to 1,690 points from 1,630 points, while lifting its market earnings per share estimate for this year by 8 percent. The move follows a 10 percent year-on-year and 14 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in combined net profit for the Thai listed companies it covers in the second quarter of 2026, led by the energy and petrochemical sectors. Excluding those two sectors, however, combined net profit fell 25 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent from the previous quarter. The research team recommends overweight positions in healthcare, tourism, consumer products, and industrial estates. It also updated its top picks, removing ERW and CRC and adding CPALL and PTT. The latest list consists of BH, PR9, THAI, PTT, CPALL, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR.

Three listed companies have disclosed continued growth prospects for the second half of 2026. TFG expects pig and chicken prices to have passed their lowest point, and its Thai Foods Fresh Market retail business has 748 branches, accelerating expansion to 875 branches by year-end, while investing in feed mills and farms in Vietnam. SSP posted first-half net profit of 325.1 million baht and electricity sales revenue of 1.5721 billion baht, and is preparing to sell power from two community waste-to-energy plants by year-end, with production capacity expected to more than double by 2028. DEMCO reported first-half net profit of 30.2 million baht, up 519.4 percent from the same period last year, with a backlog of 2.699 billion baht to be gradually recognised as revenue through 2028.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, announced it is accelerating the expansion of Thai Foods Fresh Market from 748 branches as of the second quarter of 2026 to 875 branches by the end of 2026, up from the original target of 850 branches, viewing it as a key new S-curve for its retail business. Meanwhile, the company is constructing a new animal feed factory in Vietnam, expanding its chicken business, and adding pig farms. The projects are expected to be gradually completed by the end of 2026 and begin supporting revenue from 2027. Chief Executive Officer Petch Nantawisai said pig and chicken prices passed their lowest point in May and have a chance to recover during the rest of the year, supporting the 2026 revenue target of setting a new record high. For the first six months of 2026, the company reported total revenue of 36.48 billion baht and net profit of 3.52 billion baht. It also approved an interim dividend of 0.225 baht per share, with the ex-dividend date on 24 August 2026 and dividend payment on 10 September 2026.

The board of Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, has approved an interim dividend payment of 0.225 baht per share from second-quarter 2026 operating results. The XD date is set for 24 August, with dividend payment on 10 September 2026. In the quarter, the company posted total revenue of 18.6 billion baht and net profit of 1.47 billion baht. Its retail business, Thai Foods Fresh Market, generated revenue of 8.76 billion baht, up 29.45 percent from the same period last year, driven by an increase in branches to 748 from 615 at the end of 2025. The company targets expanding to 875 branches by year-end and maintains its 2026 revenue growth target of 10 to 15 percent.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, reported second-quarter 2026 results with total revenue of 18.60184 billion baht and net profit of 1.47446 billion baht. Its retail chain, Thai Foods Fresh Market, which is part of the business, posted revenue of 8.75607 billion baht, up 29.45 percent from the same period last year, driven by an increase in store count to 748 branches from 615 at the end of 2025. The board of directors approved an interim cash dividend of 0.225 baht per share, with the XD date set for 24 August 2026 and dividend payment on 10 September 2026. Chief Executive Officer Mr. Petch Nantawisai stated that the company targets expanding Thai Foods Fresh Market to 875 branches and is accelerating expansion in Vietnam, a key growth driver, while maintaining its 2026 revenue growth target of 10 to 15 percent and the potential to set new consecutive revenue records.

Krungsri Securities forecasts Thai stock market profits for the second quarter of 2026 at 250 to 280 billion baht, down 15 to 24 percent from a year earlier and down 19 to 26 percent from the previous quarter. The refinery group saw volatile earnings on the downside, while the industrial goods, ICT, and power sectors are expected to post profit growth. The research team recommends a speculative strategy on stocks whose results will stand out or have passed their trough. Stocks expected to show Q2 profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include PTTEP, SCC, SCGP, ADVANC, TRUE, BH, IVL, THANI, TNP, MOSHI, BA, AP, INSET, and ADVICE. Stocks for which Q2 is likely the year's low point and earnings will accelerate in the second half of 2026 include KTB, KBANK, AOT, BDMS, EGCO, ICHI, THAI, and TFG. The top picks are ADVANC, SCC, IVL, BH, KBANK, AOT, and ICHI.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the global investment landscape is facing challenges on all fronts, amid a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US employment, which fuels hopes that the Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate at the September meeting. Meanwhile, domestic factors are receiving a significant boost from the rapidly strengthening baht, supported by continued foreign inflows into the Thai bond market, with cumulative net purchases this month exceeding 9.2 billion baht. The baht recently touched 32.98 per US dollar. The research team has identified three main industry groups in Thailand that stand to benefit positively from the strong baht. The first group comprises large-cap stocks that are prime targets for foreign fund flows, including commercial banks such as KBANK, SCB, BBL, and KTB; retail and tourism plays like AOT, CPALL, and CRC; telecoms such as ADVANC and TRUE; and construction materials like SCC. The second group consists of companies with high foreign-currency debt or costs, including power and energy firms such as GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, and PTTEP, and airlines like AAV. The third group covers businesses that rely heavily on imported raw materials, including agriculture and food companies such as TFG and TVO. In addition, the research team recommends portfolio strategies to navigate volatility, highlighting safe-haven stocks combined with gold as a hedge, and names SYNTEC, PTT, and GUNKUL as top picks for the Thai stock market, along with LITE01 and ZIJIN80 for overseas investment.

CGSI assesses listed-company earnings for the second quarter of 2026, with the petrochemical sector driving growth while the communication and tourism sectors may disappoint. The firm maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points and selects BH, PR9, THAI, ERW, CRC, CPN, AMATA, WHA, GULF, TRUE, TFG, KBANK, MTC, and TIDLOR as top picks. The research team notes that the non-bank sector will see net profit decline 14 percent year-on-year and 7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates. The petrochemical sector is likely to be supported by higher spreads, while the transport sector, especially airlines, tends to weaken due to rising fuel costs stemming from the situation in the Middle East. In addition, the ICT and tourism sectors face risks of disappointment, as Bloomberg consensus estimates of strong net profit growth of 26 percent year-on-year for ICT and 15 percent year-on-year for tourism are unlikely to materialize amid a still-weak economy and a 4 percent year-on-year drop in foreign tourist arrivals. Tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices have caused Thailand to face twin deficits, with a trade deficit of 12.4 billion US dollars and a current account deficit of 13.3 billion US dollars in the first half of 2026. Elevated oil prices also increase the risk of government price intervention, which would pressure margins for downstream oil and gas businesses and could push inflation higher in the second half of 2026. While the Bank of Thailand views current inflation as likely temporary, the research team believes the central bank will not raise interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 26, 2026. Regarding the Senate election collusion case, the Election Commission expects to conclude the investigation by the end of August, but the timeline may be extended. The most likely scenario is that charges will be filed against only some individuals, which would negatively affect market sentiment, and the broader legal proceedings would take longer than before. The SET currently trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 times, but this drops to 14 times when excluding DELTA, which has a forward P/E of 83 times. CGSI maintains its year-end 2026 SET Index target at 1,630 points. Positive factors that could support the market include an easing of geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices, while downside risks are the Election Commission filing charges against key politicians from coalition parties and a sharp slowdown in tourist arrivals.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, expects its second-half 2026 performance to recover after the second quarter of 2026, which is the low season. The company maintains its revenue growth target of 10 to 15 percent. Key support comes from live hog prices rising to 74 baht and farm-gate chicken prices at 43 to 44 baht, up about 15 to 20 percent from the trough in the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, feed costs are trending down due to the harvest season and the import of one million tonnes of corn from the United States under the WTO framework during the third and fourth quarters of 2026. In addition, the baht weakening to a range of 33 to 34 baht per dollar is boosting exports of both cooked and raw chicken, with total export volume this year expected at 90,000 to 100,000 tonnes. On the retail front, Thai Foods Fresh Market, or TFM, has raised its branch expansion target to 875 by the end of 2026, up from 850 previously. The company expects retail revenue to account for more than 50 percent of total revenue once the expansion is complete. TFG is also diversifying into new businesses, including coffee shops in front of TFM outlets and a rice mill, which will significantly reduce feed costs and boost margins.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thai exports in June 2026 reached 34.66 billion dollars, up 20.8 percent from the same month last year, extending growth for a 24th consecutive month and exceeding market expectations of 13.7 to 15.2 percent. Meanwhile, imports totaled 41.19 billion dollars, rising 50.3 percent, resulting in a June trade deficit of 6.53 billion dollars. For the first half of the year, exports amounted to 196.74 billion dollars, up 17.6 percent, and imports reached 228.49 billion dollars, up 38.0 percent, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of 31.74 billion dollars. Analysts at Yuanta Securities noted that the stronger-than-expected exports and the deficit are factors weighing on the currency, and highlighted five stock groups poised to benefit: rubber, which returned to growth of 12.5 percent after 14 months, supporting STA, NER, and TEGH; processed chicken, supporting GFPT, TFG, and CPF; pet food, which continued to grow 22.3 percent for a tenth straight month, supporting ITC and AAI; canned seafood, which resumed expansion at 17.5 percent, supporting TU; and electronic components, which accelerated growth, supporting SMT, CCET, KCE, and HANA.

Brokers are advising investors to gradually accumulate stocks in the meat and beverage sectors before the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon become pronounced from late this year into early next year. This follows the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's official declaration on June 11, 2026, that the world has entered El Niño conditions, with a 63% chance it will intensify into a super El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027. This could bring hotter and drier weather than usual to Thailand. Historically, during super El Niño periods, Thailand's average annual rainfall dropped to about 1,446 millimeters, roughly 9.4% below the 40-year long-term average of 1,596 millimeters, while maximum temperatures reached around 41 degrees Celsius, about 2 degrees above normal. In the meat sector, particularly pork, prices are likely to benefit from upward pressure as heat stress slows pig growth and raises disease risk, reducing market supply. Data from 2004 to 2023 shows pork prices rose an average of about 17% during El Niño periods, compared to an average increase of around 12% for chicken. Meanwhile, the beverage and convenience store sectors are expected to be supported by higher beverage consumption during hot weather. Brokers therefore recommend meat stocks such as BTG, TFG, and CPF, and beverage stocks including ICHI, CBG, and OSP, as well as convenience store operator CPALL.