Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited

Several brokers have issued research notes recommending a buy on Gunkul Engineering, or GUNKUL, after it signed a partnership agreement with Gulf Development, or GULF, to set up a joint venture for renewable energy projects. Bualuang Securities said GUNKUL signed power purchase agreements, or PPAs, for an additional 261.8 megawatts in phase 2 renewable energy projects, and sold a 50 percent stake in seven project companies, or SPVs, with total capacity of 673.4 megawatts to GULF for 467 million baht. The deal helps keep 26 billion baht of project debt off GUNKUL's balance sheet and opens the door to EPC backlog not yet included in estimates. It maintained its buy rating with a target price of 6.50 baht. Krungsri Securities upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a 2027 target price of 6.30 baht per share based on a sum-of-the-parts method, split into 4.05 baht per share for the power business and 2.24 baht per share for the EPC and trading business. It also raised its 2026 to 2028 profit forecasts by an average of 8 percent, putting profit at 2.1 billion, 2.1 billion and 3.3 billion baht, an average growth rate of about 25 percent a year, with clear growth expected in 2028 after commercial operation, or COD, of large renewable energy projects in the Philippines. Asia Plus Securities kept its estimates and 2027 fair value at 6.40 baht per share, saying the restructuring does not significantly affect long-term project returns, and recommended gradually accumulating the stock for the long term. GUNKUL shares closed the morning session at 5.15 baht, up 0.10 baht or 1.98 percent.

Yuanta Securities assesses that the third-quarter 2026 earnings outlook for SET-listed companies remains notably strong compared with the same period last year, and recommends watching stocks expected to post robust Q3 2026 results with momentum likely to continue into next year. It gives weight to groups benefiting from the new investment cycle in both the public and private sectors, such as GULF, GUNKUL, SSP, EPG, SINGER, SGC, BEM, SMT, TEAM, MINT and CHG. It expects Q3 2026 earnings for the SET Index at 350 billion baht, up 39% year on year, which is high compared with the historical quarterly profit range of 150 to 250 billion baht. The gain is driven by the energy and petrochemical groups, which remain strong on rising oil prices late in the quarter and a low base last year due to border unrest and flooding in several areas. The groups expected to post profit growth both quarter on quarter and year on year are mid-to-small finance, hospitals, tourism, transport and autos, while the groups expected to see flat or slower year-on-year profit are construction contracting, entertainment and commercial banks. If Q3 2026 earnings come in as the research team expects, nine-month 2026 profit will reach 1.1 trillion baht. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2026, which is expected to keep growing year on year on accelerating investment by the public sector focused on energy infrastructure and by the private sector focused on upgrading production to serve the high-end semiconductor supply chain, full-year 2026 profit has a chance to set a new record of about 1.4 to 1.5 trillion baht, growing as much as 30% to 40% year on year, equal to earnings per share of 112 to 115 baht, compared with the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 110 baht per share. It is therefore highly likely that earnings upgrades will be seen, helping support the SET Index's movement over the remainder of the year.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) said in an analysis that the flood situation has widened, covering 30 provinces and 191 districts in Bangkok as of 1 October 2026, affecting 1.18 million households and about 3.35 million people. The impact on the economy remains limited, however, if the situation does not drag on and does not hit core production bases. The Bank of Thailand estimates the effect on GDP at about 0.03–0.10%, while the research team expects the impact on GDP to be no more than 0.1% and on SET earnings no more than 2%, far below the major floods of 2011. The key thing to watch is the length of production stoppages in the industrial sector rather than the amount of flooded area. At AMATA City Chonburi, about 150 factories were affected and 34 temporarily halted production, while KCE and HANA have some production bases in Ayutthaya. As for DELTA's plants in Bang Pu and Wellgrow, no water entered the factories and operations have returned to normal. Other groups saw fairly limited impact. Consumer finance firms are expected to see about a 2% hit to 2026 earnings for TIDLOR and MTC and 1% for SAWAD, while banks face their main risk from higher provisioning, with an estimated 1–2% impact on earnings, larger than the effect on interest income. BGRIM said its SPP power plants in Amata City Chonburi and its floating solar operations are still running normally. Bualuang sees the flood-driven volatility as a chance to gradually accumulate stocks with resilient earnings and quick recovery prospects, namely CRC, AWC, CENTEL, BDMS, BH, GULF, GUNKUL, DELTA, KCE and HANA, which still have support from demand for AI and data centers.

Finansia Securities said GULF is well positioned to link energy infrastructure and ICT businesses with AI, with a strong financial position and capacity to take on an additional 200-300 billion baht in debt. It estimates that added capacity under PDP 2026 could create roughly 10 baht per share of upside for GULF, assuming EGAT opens bidding for about 10GW of new renewable energy projects next year and GULF secures a 40% share, or roughly 4GW of solar projects, under power purchase agreements at a feed-in tariff of 2.16 baht per kWh. Investment is expected to require about 25-30 million baht per MW, with an IRR of approximately 12%. On the AI megatrend, electricity demand is expected to grow faster than GDP, especially demand for clean power from data centers, which are more power-intensive than general industry. Key catalysts include the new PDP, Direct PPAs for 2GW of data centers, and opportunities to invest in renewable energy projects in Europe over the next year. The research team maintained its Buy recommendation and raised its target price to 89.50 baht per share to reflect the opportunity to add capacity from bidding under the new PDP, as well as the acquisition of a 50% stake in solar and wind projects from GUNKUL, representing total capacity of 339.5MW on a proportional ownership basis. The acquired projects are estimated to have a combined NPV of about 9.7 billion baht based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 5.5%, adding roughly 0.5 baht per share, with net IBD/E of only 1.06 times.

Sarath Ratanavadi, Chief Executive Officer of Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, filed a report on changes in securities and derivatives holdings by executives, Form 59, disclosing the purchase of an additional 5,000,000 ordinary shares of the company on September 30, 2026, at an average price of 59.25 baht per share, for a total value of approximately 296.25 million baht, or nearly 300 million baht. The purchase was made through the Stock Exchange of Thailand via the Auto Matching system through Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited. Following the transaction, Sarath holds a total of 4,368,150,493 GULF shares, or 29.24% of the company's total voting rights, up from 4,363,150,493 shares held before the transaction.

Gulf Energy Development, or GULF, has begun operating its Chiang Mai waste-to-energy power plant under the Chiang Mai Waste to Energy project, having started commercial operation and supplied power to the grid on 1 October 2026. The plant has an installed capacity of 9.5 megawatts and a contracted capacity of 8 megawatts, selling power to the Provincial Electricity Authority, or PEA, for a period of 20 years. GULF holds an indirect 99.23% stake in the project, and the start of operations adds to the company's portfolio of operating power plants.

Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.

The Investment Analysts Association (IAA) released a survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 firms, forecasting that the SET Index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will move within a range of 1,537 to 1,683 points and close the year at 1,680 points. The end-2027 target stands at 1,727 points. Market earnings per share are expected to average 103.38 baht in 2026, growing 16.41%, and 104.29 baht in 2027. The main supporting factor is the investment trend in technology and the AI supply chain at 96%, followed by listed-company earnings in 2026 at 88%, foreign capital inflows into the Thai stock market at 80%, and domestic economic recovery at 76%. The biggest risks are the US-Iran-Israel conflict situation and the direction of US interest rates, tied at 84%, followed by global oil prices at 80%. Under its economic assumptions, the association estimates average crude oil prices this year at 88.12 US dollars per barrel, GDP growth in 2026 averaging 2.20%, revised up from the 1.93% forecast in July, and GDP growth in 2027 averaging 2.07%. All analysts surveyed agree that the Bank of Thailand will hold its policy rate at 1% through the end of 2026. On investment strategy, the association recommends diversifying portfolios with 30% in foreign stocks or funds, 24.79% in Thai stocks or funds, 18.02% in bond funds, 10.21% in gold or gold funds, 10.02% in cash and short-term deposits, and 6.96% in property funds or REITs. The five standout stocks recommended by four or more firms are BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF, and CRC. The association also recommends underweighting energy, petrochemical, airline, and property stocks.

Kasikorn Securities recommends buying GULF shares with a 79 baht target, expecting strong profit growth during 2026–2030 after GULF notified the SET on September 28 that GRE, its 100%-owned subsidiary, acquired a 50% stake in 7 GUNKUL companies, covering 12 solar and wind power plant projects in Thailand with total contracted capacity of 673MW, or 337MWe based on GULF's proportionate equity capacity. GULF paid 467 million baht for the 50% stake, while GUNKUL retains the other 50%, representing a premium of about 1.4 million baht per MW for the acquisition of rights under PPA contracts. The acquired portfolio comprises solar and solar-plus-BESS projects totaling 209MW and wind farm projects totaling 464MW. All 12 projects have signed 25-year PPAs with EGAT, with FiT rates of 2.16 baht per kWh for solar, 2.83 baht per kWh for solar-plus-BESS, and 3.10 baht per kWh for wind. This acquisition of 337MWe of renewable capacity represents about 3.5% of GULF's committed equity capacity of 9,607MWe as of August 2026. Profit sharing from the 209MW of solar is expected to be about 150 million baht in 2028 and to increase by roughly 600 million baht from 2030 onward from the 464MW of wind farms. The solar power plants will begin COD from 2027, while most wind projects will reach COD in 2029–2030. Kasikorn Securities views that the newly acquired capacity will not yet affect profits in the second half of 2026 and expects third-quarter 2026 net profit to grow year-on-year but decline quarter-on-quarter. The 79.00 baht target price is based on a discounted cash flow method with a WACC of 4.4%.

KGI Securities unveiled its top stock picks for October 2026, recommending accumulation of stocks in the private investment and data center themes, comprising DELTA, GULF, WHA, STECON and CENTEL. The research team believes the market in October is likely to rebound, as the market has already priced in much of the global economic risk, including uncertainty in the Middle East and surging bond yields in major markets worldwide. It expects the SET Index to recover, and sees a high chance the Fed will pause rate hikes temporarily after August core PCE came in below consensus. It also sees a fairly high possibility that the US and Iran will reach some form of ceasefire agreement soon. On domestic factors, the Thai government began rolling out the final phase of consumption stimulus measures today and will shift its focus to stimulating private investment, including PPP-model infrastructure projects and FDIs. As for STECON, it signed new project contracts worth 10 billion baht, equal to 20% of its 2026F target of 50 billion baht, lifting its backlog to 116.4 billion baht, and it expects to win another 70 billion baht in projects, mainly data centers and power plants. Meanwhile, GULF has identified data center demand of more than 2GW of capacity expected to secure Direct PPAs, and the PDP2026 plan is expected to add another 20-30GW of renewable energy capacity and another 20GW of gas-fired capacity. For CENTEL, the research team remains positive after updating information with management, noting that RevPAR booked in Q3/2026F recovered year-on-year by a mid-single-digit rate from -10% in Q2/2026, and is expected to improve further during the high season in Q4/2026F. The recommended portfolio for September fell 2.6%, underperforming the overall market, which declined 2.0%.

CGSI, or CGS International Securities (Thailand), estimates that the SET Index is likely to weaken today within a range of 1,550-1,570 points, with the market still pressured by continuously rising oil prices, which are adding to concerns over the global inflation outlook. Meanwhile, US government bond yields that continue to climb are a factor weighing on capital flows and demand for investment in risk assets. Although US PCE inflation figures came in below expectations, the market has not significantly eased its concerns over the interest rate path. In the US stock market on Wednesday, September 30, the Dow Jones closed at 50,906.05 points, down 443.87 points, or 0.86%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,651.54 points, down 19.30 points, or 0.25%, and the Nasdaq closed at 26,861.06 points, up 63.52 points, or 0.24%. European stock markets closed lower for the first month in six, with the STOXX 600 closing at 634.89 points, down 3.19 points, or 0.50%. Meanwhile, November-delivery WTI crude oil futures rose 1.04 dollars, or 1.16%, to close at 90.42 dollars per barrel, and November-delivery Brent crude futures rose 0.94 dollars, or 0.92%, to close at 103.53 dollars per barrel. For recommended stocks, CGSI stated that TRUE is expected to post net profit of 6.34 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 303% year-on-year but down slightly by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a profit target of 13.10 baht and a stop-loss point of 12.40 baht. GULF is expected to see renewable energy projects, data centers, and the MTP3 LNG Terminal drive long-term profit growth after 2030, with a profit target of 59.75 baht and a stop-loss point of 58.50 baht.

Krungsri Securities maintains its Base-Best target for the Thai stock market index this year at 1,680-1,750 points, based on EPS of 103 baht, up from 98 baht, at a P/E of 17.0 times. The near-term momentum comes from the earnings quality of two main groups: those benefiting from energy and inflation, and those gaining momentum from the upstream AI CAPEX cycle, which is expected to help listed companies' profits continue expanding for at least two more quarters, namely the third and fourth quarters of this year. The research team assigns an Overweight investment weighting to three main groups: the group benefiting from the CAPEX cycle, covering the power sector with a recommendation for GULF, banking with a recommendation for KBANK, electronic components with a recommendation for DELTA, and construction contracting with a recommendation for SCC; the NTM Re-ratings group with potential to recover over the next 12 months or re-enter the MSCI index, such as THAI, PTTGC and TOP; and the agriculture and food group, covering agricultural substitutes, which benefits from Super El Niño, such as IVL. At the same time, it has raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP this year to 2.1% from 1.9%, supported by private investment rising 8.6% and exports rising 14.0%. Meanwhile, the pipeline of large-scale investment covers FDI/BOI, the PDP2026 worth 2.14 to 2.48 trillion baht, and mega projects worth 1.3 trillion baht. For the fourth quarter of 2026, the research team expects the index to move within a support range of 1,560 to 1,550 points and a resistance range of 1,680 to 1,750 points, with top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 being TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK.

Securities analysts at Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, said Thailand's capital market in the third quarter faced pressure from slowing foreign capital flows, with foreign investors selling Thai bonds worth as much as 37 billion baht, flipping the cumulative net position since the start of the year back to a negative 7.952 billion baht. The Thai stock market saw net selling of nearly 20 billion baht in just six trading days. However, foreign investors continued to rotate into large-cap stocks whose prices have risen slowly, led by SCB with net buying of 2.974 billion baht, PTT at 1.361 billion baht, TOP at 882 million baht, IRPC at 627 million baht and BBL at 517 million baht. Another domestic positive factor is that the National Semiconductor Committee approved the Thai chip strategy, or Chip Made in Thailand, to attract investment of 2.5 trillion baht, with a short-term target of 500 billion baht within five years, focusing on three technology groups where Thailand has potential: photonics, power system chips and sensors. These are expected to generate revenue for the industry exceeding 5 trillion baht per year and create more than 230,000 jobs. The research department recommends an investment strategy in stocks with specific positive factors, highlighting five standouts: DR: BE03 on demand for electricity for data centers in the United States; DR: LITE80, a leader in high-performance laser business, a key component in the tightening photonic supply chain; TRUE, whose third-quarter 2026 profit outlook is growing strongly with an expected dividend yield of about 1.2%; GULF, which benefits from the downward trend in crude oil prices and support from the PDP plan as well as data center growth; and PLANB, which is likely to see upward revisions to its 2027 profit forecast from its investment stake in iCare and is entering the high season for the outdoor advertising business in the second half.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the Election Commission's use of barcodes and QR codes on constituency MP ballots on 8 February 2026 does not violate the constitution, after the Ombudsman filed a petition arguing that the codes could be traced back to individual voters and would breach the principle of secret voting. The court found that in practice tracing is extremely difficult and that adequate safeguards are in place. That election therefore remains valid and does not need to be rerun, and the court merely recommended considering alternative security measures for future elections. The outcome removes the most severe scenario the capital markets had feared, namely a nationwide annulment of the election leading to a political and policy vacuum. With the ruling of no wrongdoing, it is expected to be positive for overall market sentiment and for foreign investor confidence thanks to reduced political risk, especially for large-cap stocks with high foreign holdings and sectors that depend on continuity of government policy, such as construction contractors, power, industrial estates and banks, since the government can continue administering the country as normal. The investment themes that benefit most include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, power producers GULF, GPSC, BGRIM and GUNKUL, contractors STECON, CK, PYLON and INSET, banks KBANK, KTB and KKP, and component makers DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, in overall trading yesterday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,594.30 points, down 8.07 points, while Thai Airways, or THAI, closed at 6.05 baht, down 0.10 baht or 1.36%, amid a backlog of more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage. Thai Airways management explained that the main cause was a shortage of manpower, especially baggage handling teams and staff holding ground operation licences who were affected by flooding and unable to travel to work. In addition, Bangkok is Thai Airways' main aviation hub, so when a large number of employees are affected at the same time, the operating system comes under heavy pressure. The issue arose while Thai Airways is pressing ahead with its rehabilitation plan and its operating results have begun returning to profit. What the market and investors must therefore monitor from here on is not just the numbers in the financial statements, but also the efficiency of the operating system and the ability to cope with a crisis.

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis that it is maintaining its Neutral investment weighting on energy and petrochemical stocks, noting that the five business groups, namely upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power plants, and oil retail, each have different drivers. It highlighted eight top picks. The upstream group, which includes PTTEP and PTT, faces short-term pressure from lower oil prices, with Dubai crude falling 11.84 US dollars to 113.06 US dollars per barrel, though still well above the 2025 average of about 70 US dollars per barrel. The top pick in this group is PTTEP. The refining group, which includes BCP, IRPC, PTTGC, SPRC, and TOP, is supported by a recovery in Singapore refining margins of 3.17 US dollars to minus 1.44 US dollars per barrel. The top picks are BCP and SPRC. The petrochemical group, which includes IRPC, IVL, PTTGC, SCC, and TOP, benefits from a broad increase in price spreads after naphtha prices fell 33 US dollars per ton. The top picks are PTTGC and SCC. The power plant group, which includes BGRIM, GPSC, and GULF, has improved in the short term on weaker JKM gas prices, down 1.80 US dollars to about 26 US dollars per million British thermal units. The top picks are GULF and GPSC. The oil retail group, which includes OR and PTG, benefits from a 0.71 baht increase in diesel marketing margins to 2.00 baht per liter after pump retail prices were raised on September 24, 2026. The top pick is PTG.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited expects the SET Index to move sideways today, with support at 1,595 and 1,590 points and resistance at 1,608 and 1,612 points, amid pressure from the US-Iran war that is keeping crude oil prices and US government bond yields elevated. However, the market is supported by political clarity after the Constitutional Court ruled that the barcode ballot papers do not violate the constitution, which helps underpin government stability and facilitates the continuation of public investment policy. The tourism sector is beginning to recover, with the number of foreign tourists between 20 and 27 September 2026 at 482,000, up 4.1% week-on-week, while Chinese tourists rose as much as 42%. Meanwhile, concerns over AI safety have eased after NVIDIA launched a software platform to control Agentic AI. For today's top picks, Krungsri selected GULF, CK and TOP as its Alpha Espresso Picks, with 2027 target prices of 77 baht, 25.35 baht and 83 baht respectively.

Today's top picks are led by GULF, which newspapers report is making an aggressive move by joining forces with GUNKUL to invest 466.5 million baht for 50% stakes in 12 solar and wind farm projects with a combined generating capacity of 673.4 megawatts, with power supply set to begin in 2570, securing long-term revenue from fixed power purchase agreements. Solar Farm rates range from 2.1579 to 2.1679 baht per kilowatt-hour, Solar BESS at 2.8331 baht, and wind power at 3.1014 baht. Meanwhile, GUNKUL is bringing GULF in as a joint venture partner to strengthen liquidity and expand financial headroom, supporting investment opportunities under the PDP 2026 plan, while accelerating the expansion of its clean energy portfolio to 3,000 megawatts by 2573. On another front, EGCO has closed a deal to advance its clean energy game in the United States, acquiring 49% of Pinnacle IV, with a generating capacity of 339 megawatts from two operational wind and solar power plants, pushing its renewable energy portfolio up to 1,785 megawatts, or 26% of total generating capacity. Brokerages estimate the new projects will boost profits by 6 to 8% and give an average target price of 145.67 baht. As for AOT, it reports that Suvarnabhumi saw flights surge to 347,000 in 11 months, with passengers reaching 59.6 million, and is accelerating a 152 billion baht investment plan for a major upgrade of Suvarnabhumi, with 12 billion baht to drive the East Expansion to raise passenger capacity to 70 million per year, along with a 120 billion baht South Terminal plan and infrastructure including a fourth runway at another 20 billion baht. The average target price is 71.50 baht, with a high of 85.00 baht.

GULF announced the purchase of a 50% investment stake in 12 renewable energy power plants from GUNKUL, with total contracted capacity of 673.4 megawatts, for a combined value of 466.5 million baht. The projects comprise 176.4 megawatts of solar power plants, 33.0 megawatts of solar plants equipped with energy storage systems, and 464 megawatts of wind power plants, representing an incremental capacity of 336.7 megawatts based on the acquired shareholding, on top of GULF's existing total capacity of 13.1 gigawatts. The projects are scheduled to begin operations between 2027 and 2030 under power purchase agreements with EGAT at fixed feed-in tariffs of 2.1679 baht per unit for solar plants, 2.8331 baht for solar plants with energy storage systems, and 3.1014 baht for wind plants. Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities estimate the deal will add upside of about 0.7 baht per share to the target price and boost GULF's profit by roughly 1.18 billion baht from 2031 onward, or 2% of current profit forecasts for that year. Meanwhile, analysts at Krungsri Securities view it as slightly positive for both companies, expecting the deal to add about 450 to 500 million baht in profit for GULF after all projects reach commercial operation date in 2030 onward, equivalent to an additional target price of about 0.33 baht. For GUNKUL, profit after 2030 is expected to decline only slightly, by about 100 million baht, with the target price falling 0.1 baht, though in the long term the reduced shareholding will enhance its debt capacity to support investment opportunities under PDP26 going forward. This marks GULF's second investment of 50% in projects GUNKUL won at auction in 2023, following the first investment in June 2025, when GULF bought a stake worth a combined 704.0 million baht in 410.2 megawatts of solar power plants and 50.6 megawatts of solar plants with energy storage systems, which is already included in the current target price of 75.0 baht per share.

Piriyapol Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management at Bualuang Securities, said the firm maintains a positive view on the Thai stock market, assessing that the SET still has an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could move close to its best-case index target of 1,780 points before shifting into a more range-bound movement. Under the base case, the SET is estimated at 1,710 points at the end of 2027, based on SET EPS of 106 baht, down 4% year on year, and a target PER of 16.0 times. Three key drivers are the global technology trend, the upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital inflows. Capital expenditure plans by major cloud service providers are expected to grow 93% in 2026 and another 41% in 2027, while Thailand's electronics exports are expected to grow 55% in 2026 and 40% in 2027. For the fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, a Barbell Strategy is recommended, focusing on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC, alongside the power group GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL, before gradually shifting to sector rotation and stock selection in the first half of 2027 and increasing the weighting of dividend stocks as the core of the portfolio in the second half of 2027.

A securities research note recommends "buying" GULF shares, expecting second-half 2026 results to continue growing and maintaining its 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance of roughly 12-15% growth, driven by about 700 MW of new capacity in the second half. This includes 623 MW of renewable power plants expected to add about 600 million baht in annual profit, and the 10 MW Chiang Mai community waste-to-energy plant expected to generate about 120 million baht in annual profit. Meanwhile, the LNG import and optimization business is expected to generate about 1.5 billion baht in profit this year. Rising electricity demand from data centers and EV adoption is likely to support dispatch at IPP/SPP power plants. The Jackson power plant in the United States is already benefiting from capacity payments that rose from 270 to 329 dollars per MW-day on demand from data centers in the PJM market. GSA01, with 25 MW, has had customers using its full capacity since June, allowing it to recognize full profit in the second half of 2026, while the first roughly 200 MW of committed data center capacity is expected to be fully operational in 2027 before expanding to about 1,000 MW in late 2028. The company continues to expand its digital infrastructure into a full ecosystem covering energy, data centers, cloud, AI platform and applications, and enterprise solutions, with plans for about 130 to 140 billion baht in equity investment over five years and an allocation of roughly 10% to GULF Edge, which could rise to 15% as data centers grow. It also sees small modular reactors as another long-term investment opportunity if the government provides clarity on laws and regulatory criteria. On sentiment, the view is that the price decline from Singtel's share overhang is nearing resolution after Singtel sold 416 million GULF shares, or 2.8% of the total, in June 2026, cutting its stake from 7.73% to 4.95%, with a lock-up barring further sales of the remaining shares for 90 days, a period that ended on September 23. On technical factors, the price decline formed a low and held the psychological support level of 60.00 with a bullish candlestick signal. The trend is a double bottom pattern, or the completion of an inverted V-shape, with resistance at the 61.25 SMA. If it breaks and holds above that with rising volume, it would be a buy signal for a trading round. For those holding the stock, the recommendation is to hold or add, with a chance to test resistance at 61.25 and 62.75, and for those without the stock, a short-term buy is recommended, focusing on holding support at 60.00 and 59.00, and it should not fall below that.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is starting to gain supportive themes after Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness from Negative to Stable, while affirming the sovereign rating at BBB+. As a result, Fitch Ratings, Moody's Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings all now hold a Stable outlook on Thailand. Fitch views the improved government stability as reducing political uncertainty, and expects Thailand's economy to expand 2.3% in 2026, close to 2.4% in 2025, supported by investment in AI and data centers as well as consumption stimulus measures. It also expects general government debt to stay below 63% of GDP in fiscal 2028, an improvement from the previous estimate of 65%. On the external front, Fitch sees Thailand's position as still strong, expecting the current account to post a temporary deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2026 before returning to a surplus of 1.5% in 2027. InnovestX sees this as positive for the Thai stock market, particularly in spurring foreign capital to flow back into big-cap stocks, commercial banks such as Bangkok Bank, KTB, and Kasikornbank, and in lowering the financial costs of listed companies, especially the finance group such as Muangthai Capital, Srisawad, and TIDLOR, as well as attracting long-term investment into future industries, including industrial estates such as Amata and WHA, power plants such as Gulf, GPSC, BGRIM, and Gunkul, and electronics components such as Hana and KCE, for a total of 14 top picks. However, it views that although the Fitch news is positive, it may support the market only in the short term, given lingering external negatives including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as volatility from global trade policy. It therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy, waiting to accumulate rather than chasing prices.

Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, is pressing ahead with its "Green Energy Green Network for THAIs" project, its third site of 2026, by supporting and installing solar power generation systems for Ban Laem Nao in Naka subdistrict, Suk Samran district, Ranong province, to give people in remote areas greater access to electricity while improving quality of life, supporting education, and sustainably reviving community tourism. Ban Laem Nao is a Thai Muslim community with a history spanning more than 300 years, located within Laem Son National Park on the Andaman coast. It currently has about 57 households and roughly 236 residents, with Nurul Islam Mosque as the center of the community and Ban Laem Nao Primary School, which has 38 students. Most residents work in small-scale fishing and farming. Phichet Phakdee, village head of Village No. 6, Ban Laem Nao, said the community has long faced chronic electricity shortages because it sits far from the shore, relying on a central 5-kilowatt generator that supplies about 42 homes and can run only four hours a day, from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. At the same time, residents must share the burden of fuel costs for the generator, and rising oil prices have added to household expenses. Small solar kits provided in the past have begun to deteriorate, and Ranong's frequent rain reduces power generation efficiency, leaving them insufficient for demand. In addition, the mosque's existing solar system, both batteries and inverter, has been out of service for more than two years, leaving insufficient power for the loudspeaker system that announces prayer times and for evening religious classes. The village's central drinking water filter also cannot operate because it lacks electricity for its pump system, forcing residents to order drinking water from the mainland at extra cost. GULF's solar installation this time therefore covers key areas of the community, giving the mosque electricity for religious activities and its loudspeaker system throughout the day, and bringing the central water filter back into service, cutting residents' expenses and adding light for children and adults who use the space for evening learning. Phichet said the support addresses problems the community has faced for a long time and directly meets residents' needs in religion, education, and access to clean water, especially by restoring the central drinking water filter, which concretely reduces household costs. At the same time, reliable clean energy helps revive the grassroots economy and tourism. Ban Laem Nao set up the "Ban Laem Nao Homestay Community Tourism Group" in 2016 to generate supplementary income through conservation-based tourism and community ways of life, with revenue distributed to various groups including homemakers, food preparers, long-tail boat operators, and local youth. The homestay business had to suspend service temporarily because of power shortages and higher generator costs, but after receiving GULF's solar support, which covers the lodging and homestay areas, the community can welcome tourists again and generate income circulating back into the area. The community also plans to extend the energy it has received into food processing and local fishery products to add value and create new income channels in the future. GULF said it will continue the Green Energy Green Network for THAIs project to expand access to clean energy in remote and underserved areas nationwide, aiming to reduce inequality, improve quality of life, and create sustainable economic opportunities for communities.

Bualuang Securities released an analysis stating that the development of Thailand's smart grid is nearing a turning point, moving from a phase focused on long-term roadmaps toward rule-setting, pilot project implementation, and greater private-sector participation. The medium-term smart grid drive plan for 2022-2031 comprises 5 pillars: Demand Response and Energy Management Systems, or DR & EMS, which accounts for roughly 30% of the budget; Renewable Energy Forecasting, or RE Forecasting, about 10%; Microgrid and Prosumer, about 20%; Energy Storage Systems, or ESS, about 25%; and EV Integration, about 15%. The analysis states that stocks that could benefit under the DR & EMS pillar include SKY, PIS, FORTH, PCC and ALT, while the RE Forecasting pillar includes TKC and SAMART. The Microgrid & Prosumer pillar includes BGRIM, the ESS pillar includes EA, GPSC, GULF and EGCO, and the EV Integration pillar includes FORTH and EA. Bualuang Securities takes the view that heavy investment in ESS and Microgrid should not be rushed from the early stage, because committing large amounts of capital to batteries, hardware and EPC work before pricing mechanisms and service markets are clear carries the risk of assets being underutilized. Meanwhile, DR/EMS forecasting and EV Integration require less capital and open up opportunities to generate revenue from platforms, service fees and recurring income.

Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of the Securities Analysis Department at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, or KSS, said the Thai stock market is likely to enter a short-term consolidation phase as it awaits clarity on external factors, particularly the situation between the United States and Iran, as well as the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24, 2026, with the market focusing on trade, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, and supply chains. Most recently, Brent crude fell below 100 dollars per barrel amid expectations for US-Iran talks and Saudi Arabia's resumption of oil shipments through the East-West Pipeline, which has eased concerns about global oil supply and is seen as a positive factor for the investment climate. On investment strategy, KSS recommends focusing on individual securities and industry groups with specific positive factors. The first group it favors is hospitals, with Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited, or BDMS, as the top pick; KSS expects its third-quarter 2026 net profit to reach a record high of approximately 4.55 billion baht, with a target price of 25 baht. The power plant group is also attractive given falling oil prices and bond yields, with a recommendation on Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, with a target price of 77 baht, and Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, with a target price of 61 baht.

Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.

Asia Plus Securities says power plant stocks have regained investor attention on three main drivers. The first is a fresh wave of data center investment, with Prime Minister Anutin scheduled to meet Google executives on September 23, 2026 to discuss digital, technology and AI issues as well as digital infrastructure development. Google plans to invest 1 billion US dollars to develop data centers and cloud in Thailand, reflecting long-term growth in electricity demand from the digital economy. The second driver is the continued decline in crude oil prices, with Dubai and Brent falling about 3% and 8% over the past five trading days to around 115 and 100 dollars per barrel respectively, which could pass through to power plants' gas costs going forward. The third driver is the baht, recently around 33.45 baht per dollar, stronger than around 34.0 baht per dollar in July, supporting companies with high debt burdens and large overseas investment. The research team has a positive view on the power sector. GULF currently has 25 MW of data centers already commercialized, with another 38 MW under development and a further 100 MW expansion planned. BGRIM is building 48 MW in its first phase, expected to gradually come online from the fourth quarter of 2026. Falling oil prices are expected to be a short-term sentiment positive for BGRIM and GPSC, which sell roughly 20 to 35% of electricity revenue to industrial customers, while baht strength helps reduce USD-denominated debt, especially for EGCO, which has roughly 50 to 60% of its loans in USD, versus around 15% for GULF and BGRIM. On investment strategy, the firm recommends a selective buy, picking GULF with a fair value of 80 billion baht as a large-cap that benefits from fund inflows and the data center theme, while BGRIM, with a fair value of 22 billion baht, benefits from margin recovery amid falling oil prices, and GPSC, with a fair value of 56 billion baht, can still be traded on sector sentiment.

Shares of B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited, or BGRIM, rose 3.14% to 19.70 baht, up 0.60 baht, touching an intraday high of 20.00 baht on turnover of 630.73 million baht. Asia Plus Securities expects margins to recover in the third quarter of 2026 as oil prices decline, and sees the power sector regaining investor interest on three main drivers: a fresh wave of data center investment, crude oil prices that continue to fall and could feed through to power plants' gas costs, and the baht's appreciation to around 33.45 baht per dollar from roughly 34.0 baht per dollar in July. The research team set a target price of 22 baht for BGRIM, 80 baht for GULF and 56 baht for GPSC, noting that GULF currently has 25 megawatts of data center capacity already commercially operational, another 38 megawatts under development and plans to add a further 100 megawatts in the next phase. BGRIM, meanwhile, is building 48 megawatts in its Phase and expects gradual commercial operation starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. The baht's strength also reduces the value of US dollar debt, particularly at EGCO, where dollar-denominated loans make up roughly 50 to 60% of borrowings, while GULF and BGRIM are at around 15%.

Krungsri Securities reported that the setting of new Data Center investment criteria is making continuous progress. Most recently, the NBTC proposed to the Data Center Board three key conditions: operators must have adequate utilities, meaning they must have power purchase agreements, or PPAs, and sufficient water supply service certifications; they must use domestically produced structural materials, construction work and electrical systems at a proportion of no less than 50% to support Thai industry; and a sustainability requirement, or Go Green, must be added, requiring operators to have guidelines to reduce environmental impact, cut carbon emissions and have electronic waste management plans. The research department assesses that this rapid and clear adjustment of the criteria is positive for Thailand's economic direction in the period ahead, and the Local Content condition will help circulate Data Center investment money into other industries. Stocks expected to gain positive sentiment include Infra Tech theme stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power group stocks GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, banking group stocks KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, and construction group stocks STECON, PYLON and INSET.

CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that the SET Index could rise above 1,600 points, with a trading range of 1,600-1,630 points, supported by lower oil prices and falling US government bond yields. The Nasdaq closed at a record high on buying in AI stocks, particularly AMD and Nvidia, whose forward P/E ratios are in their lowest zone in 10 years. The Dow Jones closed at 52,048.83 points, up 366.19 points or 0.71%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,764.70 points, up 114.20 points or 1.49%, and the Nasdaq closed at 27,122.09 points, up 599.55 points or 2.26%. Meanwhile, October-delivery WTI crude oil futures fell 4.52 dollars, or 4.51%, to close at 95.78 dollars per barrel, following signs of diplomatic progress between Iran and the United States and reports that Saudi Arabia's oil exports are starting to recover. Among its recommended stocks, CGSI said DELTA will post higher revenue growth in the second half of 2026, with third-quarter 2026 revenue estimated to grow about 15% quarter-on-quarter, and set a profit target of 252.00 and a stop-loss level of 244.00. GULF is expected to see renewable energy projects, data centers, and the MTP3 LNG Terminal drive long-term profit after 2030, with a profit target of 63.25 and a stop-loss level of 61.50.

Solar stocks moved higher after the Energy Ministry prepared to include 10,000 MW of residential rooftop solar in the new Power Development Plan. At 11:23 a.m., GUNKUL rose 3.00% to 5.15 baht on turnover of 368.99 million baht, SPCG gained 1.83% to 11.10 baht, and GULF added 0.41% to 61.50 baht. The plan sets a size of about 5 kW per household, allows excess power to be sold to offset electricity bills, and supports funding while cutting permitting steps, with a goal of raising the clean energy share to nearly 50% within 10 years. Kasikorn Securities views the plan as positive for solar distributors and installers such as GUNKUL, SPCG and GULF, but sees rising long-term risk for conventional power plants. Krungsri Securities views it as positive sentiment for GUNKUL even though rooftop solar accounts for only about 6-7% of total revenue, and keeps its earnings estimate and target price for GUNKUL at 5.4 baht per share, supported by a current backlog of about 4.5 billion baht, with large project bidding expected to gradually open from 2027 onward.

Two brokers hold a positive view on power-plant stocks after the Energy Minister prepares to expand the buyback quota for electricity from public solar rooftops to 10,000 MW from 500 MW previously, under a feed-in tariff of 2.2 baht per unit, along with an extension of the power purchase agreement buyback term to 20 years from 10 years. Krungsri Securities said it sees positive sentiment, especially for GUNKUL, even though the solar rooftop business accounts for only about 6-7% of total revenue, but it still gets a boost from the policy of installing solar rooftops with tax deductions of up to 200,000 baht per household and installation subsidies of 30,000 baht per household from the 400-billion-baht loan emergency decree. It also recommends buying GULF with a 2027 target price of 77 baht and GPSC with a 2027 target price of 61 baht as top picks on the data center investment theme. Asia Plus Securities is bullish on the renewable energy group, seeing the expansion of the framework to 10,000 MW as reflecting a significant upgrade of the public solar market, and the extension of the purchase term from 10 years to 20 years as increasing the attractiveness and incentive for household investment. This is therefore a positive factor for solar EPC operators and related equipment distributors such as GUNKUL, SOLAR, SPCG and SSP. Its research team picks GUNKUL as top pick with a target price of 6.4 baht, and sees the medium- to long-term investment theme extending from the solar group to smart grid and battery energy storage systems, where BGRIM and GPSC have strengths in smart grid and BESS, while GULF has both solar rooftop and solar-plus-BESS businesses.

The National Energy Policy Council, or NEPC, approved expanding the framework for promoting electricity generation from public solar to 10,000 megawatts, up from the previous 5,000 megawatts, covering the period 2026–2028. The total already includes 500 megawatts of existing purchase projects. The council set the buyback rate under the Net Billing scheme at 2.20 baht per unit, capped at no more than 5 kilowatts per meter, and extended the purchase period to 20 years from 10 years, covering rooftop installations, ground-mounted systems, and floating solar. The NEPC also tasked agencies with preparing supporting plans within one month, covering real-time electricity generation forecasting, control of transmission and distribution systems, installation of smart meters and smart grids, and battery energy storage systems, or BESS, to accommodate distributed generation. The research team at Asia Plus Securities views this as positive for the renewable energy group, noting that the expansion from 5,000 megawatts to 10,000 megawatts reflects a significant upgrade of the public solar market, and that extending power purchases from 10 years to 20 years will improve the returns and investment incentives for households. This is therefore a positive factor for contractors installing rooftop solar power systems, or Solar EPC, and for distributors of related equipment such as GUNKUL, SOLAR, SPCG, and SSP. At the same time, the increase in distributed generation will give energy management systems, smart grids, and battery energy storage systems a key role in the next phase, in line with the direction of the PDP2026 plan. BGRIM and GPSC have strengths in smart grids, energy management systems, and BESS, while GULF has related businesses in both Solar Rooftop and Solar plus BESS. In the short term, this is expected to be positive sentiment for stocks in the solar business chain, and the research team has chosen GUNKUL as its Top Pick on the strength of its Solar EPC business and comprehensive equipment distribution.

Kasikorn Securities, or KS, said in a research note that ESG is entering an era in which it genuinely affects financial outcomes, and unveiled 10 stocks set to benefit from the ESG transition. The Stock Exchange of Thailand is preparing to move from SET ESG Ratings to the FTSE Russell ESG Scores framework, with listed companies due to learn their own scores in 2026 and public disclosure beginning in 2027. Preliminary statistics from the 2025 FTSE Russell ESG Scores assessment show that 222 Thai listed companies averaged 3.6 out of 5, placing them at a Good practice level, with the utilities, healthcare, and oil and gas sectors scoring most strongly. KS said ESG development is reaching a regulatory level that will affect profits and ROIC through a carbon pricing mechanism with a pilot price of 200 baht per tonne of carbon equivalent, a planned emissions trading system trial in 2029-2030, the EU CBAM measure, and the IFRS S1/S2 standards and Thailand Taxonomy. A study of SET100 stocks found that high ESG-rated shares do not always trade at more expensive PER or PBV multiples or post higher EPS growth, but that good ESG enhances investability through liquidity and the shareholding of foreign and institutional investors. The case of DELTA, which was removed from the SETESG index, reflects how money from ESG-linked funds affects short-term price volatility. The 10 standout stocks span five themes: renewable energy business expansion, GULF, BCPG and CKP; green industrial infrastructure, WHA and AMATA; ESG data services and carbon management, DITTO and BBIK; sustainable finance, BAY and TTB; and the circular economy, SCGP.