Climate Adaptation & Water

Anutin Charnvirakul, Prime Minister and Interior Minister, chaired a meeting of the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command to monitor flood situations nationwide. He instructed provincial governors in areas prone to or forecast to face disasters to exercise their authority as provincial disaster prevention and mitigation directors and consider declaring disaster zones without waiting for the disaster to occur, and to consider spending budgets based on actual needs in line with regulatory criteria. Anutin also emphasized four directives for accelerating flood management, particularly speeding up damage assessments and approving compensation of 9,000 baht for people affected since September 25-26, 2026, as well as restoring areas where water has receded, public utilities, and preparing Big Cleaning plans. He also ordered governors of 14 southern provinces to prepare for heavy rainfall according to weather forecasts by reviewing area-specific response plans, preparing rescue teams, water pumps, boats, shelters, and evacuation plans for vulnerable groups. He assigned Acting Sub-Lt. Trakul Thotham, Inspector-General of the Interior Ministry, to drill shelter management guidelines with all 14 southern provincial governors, using the shelter at Prince of Songkla University's Hat Yai campus as a standard shelter. He also ordered Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, along with Jaraseth Thaiseth, Deputy Interior Minister, to quickly drill damage assessment guidelines for claiming insurance compensation under the national insurance policy together with relevant agencies.

QBE Insurance Group has appointed long-serving executive Jonathan Groves as CEO of its Australia Pacific division, effective 1 November 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. The leadership change lands on top of a finely balanced valuation story: analysts see fair value at about A$24.47, only slightly above the A$23.81 last close, leaving the stock roughly 3% undervalued. QBE has delivered a 20.19% year-to-date share price return and a 4.11% decline over 90 days, while its 5-year total shareholder return stands at 136.36%. The company's strong capital position, recent AA credit upgrades and disciplined risk management underpin stable dividend payouts and optionality for strategic acquisitions or investment in new growth segments. The story could still shift quickly if premium rate pressure worsens or large loss volatility unsettles underwriting results again.

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has completed repairs to its online registration system for flood victims seeking assistance, and about 35,800 people have now registered. Lalida Periswiwatana, deputy spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office, said Bangkok is accelerating drainage in the eastern areas, particularly Min Buri, Nong Chok, Prawet, Saphan Sung, Sai Mai and Lat Krabang, and is mobilising water pumps and water-pushing boats to help. Wissanu Charoen, director of the drainage system engineering division at the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration's Drainage Office, said the urgent operation is focused on reclaiming the Rom Klao community housing area in Lat Krabang district, where the water level has been reduced by about 30 to 60 centimetres, though roads in the area are still flooded by about 20 to 30 centimetres. Yesterday the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration added more flood barriers and installed additional water pumps, and expects to lower the water level by about 25 centimetres per day, with roughly two more days needed to return the area to normal. In the Sai Mai–Ao Ngoen area, the situation is expected to ease within about two days. People who have already registered and wish to correct their information can log in to the system to update it, or contact their district office during official working days and hours.

Bnomics by Bangkok Bank released an analysis warning that flooding is not merely a problem of heavy rainfall, but reflects that cities cannot handle the water, with damage spreading to GDP and supply chains. It points out that Thailand must shift its mindset from 'draining water' to 'living with water.' The analysis cites a World Bank assessment that the great flood of 2011 caused damage and losses of approximately 1.43 trillion baht, or 12.6% of GDP. The report Thailand Economic Monitor: Coping with Floods and Droughts estimates that if in 2030 Thailand faces flooding at a level with roughly a one-in-50-year probability, similar to the 2011 event, production losses could exceed 10% of GDP, and could be even higher if supply chains cannot adapt well enough. Singapore once had about 32 square kilometres of flood-prone area in the 1970s, but after decades of continuous investment in upgrading its systems, that has now fallen to less than 0.25 square kilometres, a reduction of more than 99%. For Thailand, in the 2017–2026 fiscal years, the integrated water resource management plan was allocated a total budget of more than 600 billion baht, with the 2025 fiscal year at approximately 62,621 million baht and 2026 at approximately 63,421 million baht. This budget covers water for consumption and use, water for agriculture, drought response, water source rehabilitation, and flood prevention. The World Bank therefore proposes that Thailand use Cost-Benefit Analysis systematically to prioritise flood and drought response measures, alongside investment in infrastructure, early warning systems, and Nature-based Solutions.

Kemper Corporation has formed an enterprise Distribution & Marketing organization, appointing former Kemper Life President Chris Flint as Chief Distribution & Marketing Officer and naming new leaders for its P&C Claims and Life businesses. The move consolidates sales and marketing across the company while placing experienced operators over claims and life insurance, an effort to tighten execution and better align growth initiatives across business lines. Among the recent developments, the appointment of Todd Williams as Chief Claims Officer stands out alongside the marketing reorganization, given that claims performance sits at the heart of Kemper's key risk around loss ratios and reserve stability. Kemper's narrative projects $4.3 billion in revenue and $527.0 million in earnings by 2029, yielding a $36.33 fair value and a 42% upside to its current price, while some of the most cautious analysts were assuming revenue around US$4.8 billion and earnings near US$415 million by 2029. The reorganization does not by itself remove the biggest near-term pressure point, which is underwriting volatility in specialty auto and the risk of further loss-driven earnings swings.

Jesada Chantraprapha, Deputy Permanent Secretary of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, said at the joint flood situation press center at Government House that the BMA is accelerating drainage to minimize the impact on residents in outer areas as much as possible. The current situation of northern runoff and seawater intrusion has not yet had a significant impact, but rainfall that may increase further still needs to be monitored. For water management in each area, the BMA has coordinated with the Lak Hok community to consider opening additional sluice gates on Khlong Prem Prachakon to draw water from Khlong Rangsit Prayunsak and the northern areas. In the Khlong Song area of Pathum Thani Province, the BMA is rushing to open sluice gates on Khlong Lat Phrao, Khlong Mo Taek, and Khlong Phraya Suren to ease the hardship of residents in Lam Luk Ka District, in Lat Sawai Subdistrict and Khukhot Subdistrict. On Khlong Saen Saep, water is being drained rapidly outside the Min Buri sluice gate, while on Khlong Prawet Burirom, water is being drained rapidly at the Lat Krabang gate to reduce the impact in the area of King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang and surrounding areas. Additional pumps are also being installed to assist the Keha Thani, Keha Rom Klao, and Nawathani communities. Meanwhile, Bangkok residents affected by the floods can now register to claim relief payments through two main channels: the Tang Rat application and the Bangkok system website at claim.bangkok.go.th

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration has confirmed the cancellation of the Bueng Khu Bon and Bueng Bang Chan monkey-cheek flood-retention projects, saying they are not worth the roughly 11 billion baht budget. Jesada Chantraprapha, deputy permanent secretary of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, said the two ponds can hold only 700,000 cubic metres of water, compared with about 5 million cubic metres managed by Bueng Nong Bon, or roughly ten times more, and that Bueng Nong Bon is also connected to the tunnel system and main canals. He also insisted that no private party received any undue benefit. Chawalit Chantararat, a water management expert and chief executive of TEAM GROUP, said Bueng Khu Bon has a design capacity of about 870,000 cubic metres but can actually manage only around 500,000 cubic metres, and that when the current land price and the cost of building all the associated systems are combined, the cost framework for the Khu Bon project comes to about 11 billion baht. The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration is therefore laying out a plan to develop the eastern drainage system as an integrated whole, running through Khlong Phraya Suren, Khlong Sam Wa, Khlong Saen Saep and Khlong Prawet Burirom, linking to Bueng Nong Bon, the drainage tunnel and a large pumping station, while taking in more water from Min Buri, Bang Kapi, Lat Krabang and Rom Klao.

Deputy Interior Minister Jaraseth Thaiseth revealed that the government has purchased national disaster insurance coverage for approximately 30 million households nationwide, covering three types of hazards: floods, windstorms, and earthquakes. The policy takes effect for disasters occurring from 1 October 2026 onward and provides coverage through 1 October 2027. In the case of floods, once an area meets the conditions and an emergency disaster assistance zone is declared, affected parties are entitled to an initial claim payment of 10,000 baht per incident per household, plus additional compensation based on actual damage of up to 90,000 baht, for a maximum total of 100,000 baht per incident per household. For windstorms and earthquakes, the initial payment is 5,000 baht, with additional compensation of up to 95,000 baht, for a maximum total of 100,000 baht per incident per household. In the case of death from a covered hazard, benefits of 2 million baht per person are paid. The new system also covers situations where floodwaters surround a residence to the point that normal life cannot be sustained for more than seven consecutive days, with the right to receive compensation of 10,000 baht per incident per household, including flats or buildings affected in such a manner. For renters with a clear rental contract, the rights to initial assistance payments and rights related to damage to the home itself will be considered separately between the occupant and the property owner in accordance with the policy conditions. Citizens must register to confirm their information and bank account for receiving payments. A key feature of the new system is the reduction of procedures and waiting times after a disaster, with initial claim payments set to be processed within 15 days after passing verification under the conditions, so that people have money for essential expenses during recovery. As for home repairs from flooding, insurance companies are in the process of developing assessment guidelines that reduce the complexity of item-by-item surveys, with the idea of using water levels and damage to help determine claim amounts. Flood events occurring before 1 October 2026 will still use the assistance and relief mechanisms under existing laws and criteria and will not automatically enter the coverage of the new policy.

Employers Holdings reported second-quarter revenues of $220.2 million, down 10.6% year on year but exceeding analysts' expectations by 8.4%, in what the company called a strong quarter that also beat EPS estimates. Chief Executive Officer Katherine Antonello said diluted earnings per share grew 29% year-over-year and adjusted earnings per share grew 46%, even as net income was essentially flat, reflecting the accretive impact of the company's recapitalization strategy and share repurchases. The stock is down 2.2% since reporting and currently trades at $48.67. Across the 31 property and casualty insurance stocks tracked, group revenues beat consensus estimates by 2.3% while next quarter's revenue guidance came in 0.9% above, yet share prices have fallen an average of 9.6% since the latest earnings results. Among peers, Essent Group reported revenues of $362.7 million, up 13.6% year on year and 9.7% above expectations, while Radian Group posted revenues of $580.7 million, up 95.7% year on year and in line with expectations but with a significant EPS miss.

Trane Technologies is positioned to potentially extend its earnings-beat streak when it reports next, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +0.43% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The manufacturer has beaten estimates in each of its last two reports, with an average surprise of 2.44%. In the most recent quarter, Trane Technologies posted earnings of $4.31 per share against the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.27 per share, a surprise of 0.94%. The prior quarter delivered a surprise of 3.95%, as earnings came in at $2.63 per share versus an expected $2.53 per share. Zacks research shows that stocks combining a positive Earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time.

GFL Environmental rose 4% on a report that two private equity groups have made offers for the company. GFL's special committee is evaluating the takeover offers with its adviser, according to traders who cited a CTFN report circulating on Friday that cited a source familiar with the matter. One group consists of private equity firms KKR, Blackstone, and Energy Capital Partners, while the other group includes Brookfield Asset Management and IFM Investors. The bids likely need to be at the top end of the $50 to $55 a share range that CTFN previously reported to get across the finish line, and GFL has also received interest from strategic buyers for certain markets or regions. GFL CEO Patrick Dovigi told Bloomberg TV last month that he is open to taking the company private at a higher valuation than it currently trades at, saying no decision has been made, and GFL is set to report Q3 results on Oct. 28.

AM Best has downgraded the Financial Strength Rating of SanlamAllianz Re Ltd to B++ (Good) from A- (Excellent) and its Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating to "bbb+" (Good) from "a-" (Excellent), while maintaining the ratings under review and revising the implications status to developing from negative. The downgrades reflect a revision in AM Best's assessment of SAZ Re's enterprise risk management to marginal from appropriate, citing significant shortcomings in corporate governance and controls that culminated in a USD 71 million write-off of receivables, equivalent to more than 100% of 2025 opening capital and surplus. SAZ Re subsequently reported a net loss of USD 20.4 million in 2025 and suffered additional losses in the first half of 2026, a combined impact that exceeded two rounds of remedial capital injections from shareholders in 2025 and 2026 of USD 47 million and USD 27 million, respectively. The ratings were first placed under review with negative implications on 29 August 2025, and AM Best expects them to remain under review with developing implications until it receives SAZ Re's recapitalisation plan and year-end 2026 financial statements and assesses the company's credit rating fundamentals.

AM Best has affirmed the Financial Strength Rating of A- (Excellent) and the Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating of "a-" (Excellent) of Enact Re Ltd. (ERL) (Bermuda), with a stable outlook on both ratings. ERL is a Class 3A Bermuda reinsurer and a direct subsidiary of Enact Mortgage Insurance Corporation (EMIC) (North Carolina), the flagship private mortgage insurer within the Enact Holdings, Inc. (EHI) (Delaware) organization, and it provides quota share reinsurance to EMIC. The ratings reflect ERL's balance sheet strength, which AM Best assesses as very strong, along with its adequate operating performance, limited business profile and appropriate enterprise risk management, and they also reflect rating enhancement from its close relationship with EMIC. ERL's very strong balance sheet assessment is supported by risk-adjusted capitalization at the very strong level on both a stressed and unstressed basis as measured by Best's Capital Adequacy Ratio, and while that ratio may fluctuate as the company expands its credit insurance business, it is projected to stay at the very strong or strong levels for the near term. AM Best assesses ERL's operating performance as adequate, with net income growing each year since it began assuming risk in 2023, and its business profile as limited because of concentration in lines such as U.S. single-family mortgage reinsurance risk, whose performance is correlated with the broader macroeconomy.

AXIS Capital Holdings Limited reported second-quarter 2026 gross premiums written of $2.2 billion, up 15% year over year, while net premiums written rose 6%. Within that total, the core business contributed about 2% growth, expanded classes added 5%, and AXIS Capacity Solutions contributed 8%. Short-tail lines accounted for 57% of group premiums in the quarter, including 59% of Insurance premiums. The company's fixed-maturity book yield increased to 4.8% as of June 30, 2026, from 4.6% a year earlier, and AXIS returned $122 million to common shareholders through $89 million of repurchases and $33 million of dividends. The company flagged rising competition, catastrophe losses, weather severity, geopolitical instability and foreign-exchange volatility as key risks.

Ibaraki Governor Kazuhiko Oigawa said at a regular press conference on the 2nd that he will not consent to moving to the second-stage preliminary survey in the process of selecting a final disposal site for high-level radioactive waste from nuclear power plants, so-called nuclear waste. He also ruled out accepting a final disposal site. On the final disposal issue, Hitachiomiya Mayor Sadayuki Suzuki in Ibaraki Prefecture stated on September 30 that the city would accept the first-stage literature survey. Proceeding to the preliminary survey requires the governor's consent as a precondition.

Ms. Lalida Peritswiwatana, Deputy Spokesperson of the Prime Minister's Office, said at the Joint Information Center for the Flood Situation, or JICC, that the Prime Minister has ordered provinces still affected by flooding to keep personnel and resources in place to continue assisting the public, and instructed relevant agencies to speed up efficient water management and drainage. The Meteorological Department indicated that rain will increase in the Northeast on 5-7 October, then shift to the West, and during 11-14 October there will be heavy or persistent rain in the Central region from Nakhon Sawan province southward, with rainfall of 100 millimetres, before moving toward the South. The Chao Phraya Dam is under control; inflow is trending downward, while downstream discharge is 2,500 cubic metres per second. Chai Nat, Sing Buri and Ang Thong provinces must be closely monitored, with their situation holding steady, while Ayutthaya province remains affected. Pathum Thani and Nonthaburi provinces are stable, with impacts in riverside areas. For Bangkok, the flood barriers remain unaffected, with water at the lowest point of the barriers at about 90 centimetres; Khlong Chan is dry, and the Rom Klao area saw water drop by 30 centimetres on 1 October. Mr. Parinya Chantakup, Director of the Water Quality Management Academic Division of the Bangkok Drainage Bureau, said Bangkok will expedite relief through registration on the Thang Rath application and the Bangkok application, as well as through all 50 district offices, covering home repair costs, shelter costs, medical expenses and basic living allowances, and will set up four on-site academic centres. He estimated that water still flooding the eastern side can be reduced within seven days from now. Mr. Phaithoon Kengkanchang, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Water Resources Office, said the main dams in the Chao Phraya basin are Bhumibol Dam at 70 percent, Sirikit Dam at 80 percent, and Khwae Noi Bamrung Daen Dam at 70-80 percent. Only Pa Sak Jolasid Dam exceeds 100 percent capacity, but it still has 6 billion cubic metres of space, unlike the water situation in 2011. The Ping River and the Sakae Krang basin are trending down by more than 500 cubic metres per second, a significant drop, and he confirmed that the northern water mass has decreased, allowing discharge to be maintained at 2,500 cubic metres per second for 5-6 days to accommodate the rain during 11-13 October. He expects Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi, Bangkok and Samut Prakan provinces may see flooding in some areas. As for the Bang Pakong basin, on 1 October the water level reached a new high, 11 centimetres higher than in 2013, at 4.98 metres. Mr. Fata Marnsatawee, an expert in meteorological forecasting system development, said rain will begin in the Northeast on 4 October and then move westward, affecting the Chao Phraya basin and Bangkok around 5 October, before reaching Kanchanaburi and the western side by 7 October, and a low-pressure trough over the Central region including Bangkok must be watched on 11 October.

The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation has issued a warning to 10 provinces in the Chao Phraya River basin and Bangkok to monitor rising water levels, especially in low-lying areas outside the flood barriers, after the Royal Irrigation Department prepared to release water below Chao Phraya Dam at a rate of 2,200 to 2,500 cubic metres per second. Mr. Nirand Pongsitthithavorn, Director-General of the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, disclosed that today the C.2 station in Mueang Nakhon Sawan district, Nakhon Sawan province, will see a maximum flow of about 3,010 cubic metres per second, combined with water from tributaries, causing water levels above Chao Phraya Dam to rise, making it necessary to release water below the dam at that rate. This release will raise water levels in low-lying areas outside the flood barriers by about 0.40 to 0.70 metres. The areas requiring vigilance include Sena, Phak Hai, Bang Ban, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Bang Pa-in and Bang Sai districts of Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province; Wiset Chai Chan, Pa Mok, Chaiyo and Mueang Ang Thong districts of Ang Thong province; In Buri, Phrom Buri and Mueang Sing Buri districts of Sing Buri province; and Sapphaya district of Chai Nat province. This will not affect community areas inside the flood barriers. The Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Coordination Centre has coordinated with 10 provinces, namely Uthai Thani, Chai Nat, Sing Buri, Ang Thong, Suphan Buri, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Lop Buri, Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan, as well as Bangkok, to closely monitor the situation and to warn residents and business operators along the Chao Phraya and Noi rivers. It has also ordered the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Centres in Region 1 Pathum Thani, Region 2 Suphan Buri and Region 16 Chai Nat to monitor the situation around the clock, prepare personnel, disaster machinery, operational vehicles and Emergency Response Teams to enter the area if the situation becomes severe or expands, as well as to support the setting up of temporary shelters and assistance to the public.

The flood situation has spread to 31 provinces, affecting 3.53 million people, or 1.24 million households, with a total of 24 deaths, according to the latest data from the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation as of October 2. The affected areas cover 179 districts, 1,279 subdistricts and 9,339 villages, including Bangkok, where 329,000 households have been affected and 4 people have died. Water levels in Bangkok have now receded. Meanwhile, the Meteorological Department is warning the public to prepare for heavy to very heavy rain during October 4-7, with October 5 expected to bring very heavy rain in Kamphaeng Phet, Phitsanulok, Phichit, Phetchabun, Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Chai Nat, Sing Buri, Ang Thong and Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya. On October 6, watch areas are Kanchanaburi and Ratchaburi, and Bangkok and its vicinity are expected to see heavy rain during October 5-6. The Royal Irrigation Department said that although water levels at some upstream points have begun to fall, the mass of water that flowed down earlier still needs time to travel, so it remains necessary to gradually increase discharge at Chao Phraya Dam, alongside delaying water above the dam and taking water into the irrigation system on both the eastern and western sides according to capacity, in order to control water levels and reduce risks to areas above and below the dam. This requires considering together the water levels in major rivers, water from tributaries, local rainfall and the influence of sea tides. It also warned people in low-lying areas along rivers and outside flood barriers to closely monitor announcements from the authorities.

Assurant, Inc. has raised its full-year 2026 outlook after reporting record second-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted EBITDA excluding catastrophes up 18% year over year to $491.4 million and adjusted EPS rising 19% to $6.60. The insurer's shares have gained 20.1% over the past year, outpacing the industry's growth of 1.9%, while peers The Travelers Companies, Inc. rose 23% and NMI Holdings Inc. and Cincinnati Financial Corporation fell 8.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Management now expects Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA to grow in the low double digits in 2026, above its prior expectation of about 10%, after Connected Living earnings rose 24% in the first half of 2026, and it raised its 2026 Housing outlook to modest earnings growth excluding catastrophes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 12.7%, with revenues pegged at $13.92 billion, up 8.4%, and the consensus 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates have moved up 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, over the past 30 days. Assurant's holding-company liquidity reached $911 million as of June 30, 2026, and 2026 share repurchases through July totaled $230 million, with management expecting full-year buybacks toward the upper end of its $300-$350 million range.

Large and complex commercial property insurance rates fell an average of 14.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 8.4 percent a year earlier, according to the fall 2026 edition of the Insurance Marketplace Realities report from Willis, a WTW business. Within that overall decline, shared and layered programs placed with five or more carriers saw average rate decreases of 23.41 percent, up from 14.57 percent in the second quarter of 2025, as competition among insurers intensified and the market moved from the 2018 through 2024 hard market toward pricing last seen in 2019. The report, titled The Specialist View: Navigating Tomorrow's Risk Landscape for 2027, examines rate predictions and market conditions across more than thirty lines of commercial insurance in North America. Global insured catastrophe losses reached 107 billion dollars in 2025, the sixth consecutive year above 100 billion, even as the first half of 2026 produced the lowest total since 2020. Cyber rates are holding roughly flat between a 5 percent decrease and a 5 percent increase, while auto liability and umbrella and excess lines for high hazard risks remain under pressure from nuclear verdicts and social inflation, with early indications that excess casualty rate increases may be nearing their peak. Jackie Bolig, Head of Placement and Broking Solutions for North America at Willis, said property buyers have room to negotiate this cycle while casualty and specialty buyers need to plan for a market still correcting for verdict severity and emerging technology risk.