Corn Futures

Corn futures at the CBOT closed lower on Friday, October 2, dragging soybean futures down in tandem, as funds sold to lock in profits after the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that U.S. corn stocks as of September 1 surged to a seven-year high of 2.095 billion bushels, up from 1.551 billion bushels in the same period a year earlier and above the 1.918 billion bushels analysts had expected. December-delivery corn fell 4.5 cents, or 0.90%, to close at 4.9775 dollars per bushel, while November-delivery soybeans fell 5.75 cents, or 0.45%, to close at 12.7825 dollars per bushel. December-delivery wheat rose 0.25 cents, or 0.04%, to close at 6.8300 dollars per bushel. Analysts at Marex said corn futures were pressured by funds rushing to close long positions, along with forecasts that weather in U.S. corn-growing areas will favor harvesting for as long as two weeks. The USDA is scheduled to release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report this week, and analysts at StoneX expect the WASDE report to show U.S. soybean yields at 54.1 bushels per acre and total production at 4.65 billion bushels, both above the USDA's estimates last month and record highs. StoneX also cut its corn yield forecast to 182.1 bushels per acre from 182.9 bushels per acre previously, though that figure remains above the 178.5 bushels per acre the USDA projected last month.

Grain and oilseed futures at the CBOT closed lower across the board on Wednesday, September 23, led by wheat, which fell to a four-week low amid analyst expectations that diplomatic efforts could help ease the disruption to grain exports through the Black Sea caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. December wheat fell 8.75 cents, or 1.22%, to close at $7.0850 a bushel. December corn fell 7.75 cents, or 1.44%, to close at $5.2900 a bushel, and November soybeans fell 7.50 cents, or 0.57%, to close at $13.1800 a bushel. Pressure on wheat came after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said following talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in New York that Ukraine and Russia, both major global grain exporters, had shown mutual interest in a limited ceasefire agreement covering grain and energy targets. Traders said a ceasefire could open the way for Black Sea shipping to recover from its current near-standstill. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, September 22, and said they discussed a ceasefire limited to energy targets. However, continued attacks on ports and cargo ships have dampened traders' expectations for a near-term recovery in Black Sea shipping. Corn and soybeans weakened after approaching three-year highs this week, with traders watching whether the U.S.-China summit on Thursday, September 24, will spur Chinese demand for U.S. crops. China is the world's largest importer of soybeans.

Grain and oilseed futures at the CBOT closed lower across the board on Tuesday, September 22, led by December corn, which fell 6.25 cents, or 1.15%, to settle at $5.3675 a bushel, and December wheat, which dropped 9.50 cents, or 1.31%, to settle at $7.1725 a bushel. November soybeans fell 2.50 cents, or 0.19%, to settle at $13.2550 a bushel, after a strong rally on Monday amid hopes for a farm trade deal ahead of Thursday's September 24 meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. Traders are watching whether China, the world's largest soybean importer, will step up purchases and lift its 10% tariff on US soybeans. Sinograin, the grain reserve arm of China's state government, announced a second auction of imported soybeans from state reserves in September to free up storage space for expected US soybean arrivals. US farmers are harvesting soybeans and corn, keeping an eye on weather forecasts over concerns that rain could delay the harvest. Wheat was pressured by diplomatic efforts to ease the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which affects grain exports through the Black Sea route. President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are scheduled to discuss the issue at the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, as attacks on ports and shipping vessels continue.

Grain futures on the CBOT closed lower across the board on Friday, September 11, led by soybean contracts, which fell more than 2.6% and dropped below the 13-dollar-per-bushel level, after the US Department of Agriculture, or USDA, projected higher output. November-delivery soybeans fell 35.75 cents, or 2.68%, to close at 12.9650 dollars per bushel, while December-delivery corn fell 3.50 cents to close at 5.3025 dollars per bushel, and December-delivery wheat fell 16 cents, or 2.16%, to close at 7.2525 dollars per bushel. The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, or WASDE, said 2026 soybean production would come in at 4.54 billion bushels with a yield of 52.8 bushels per acre, above the August estimates of 4.52 billion bushels and 52.7 bushels respectively. At the same time, the USDA estimated US corn exports for the 2026/2027 marketing year at 1.93 million tons, above the upper end of the 700,000-ton to 1.7-million-ton range forecast by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Soybean exports were put at 2.64 million tons, above analyst expectations, while wheat exports were 194,200 tons, below what analysts had forecast. The USDA also cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 3 million tons to 43 million tons, and lowered Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons. Analysts at StoneX said the downgrades reflected that supply chains remain under pressure from intensifying conflict between the two countries.

Wheat futures on the CBOT closed down 2.68% on Friday, September 4, after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to peace talks to end the war with Ukraine, which could increase the chances of grain exports from the Black Sea returning to normal. December wheat futures fell 20.25 cents to close at $7.3400 per bushel, while December corn futures fell 0.74% to close at $5.3675, and November soybean futures fell 0.49% to close at $13.0975. The move came after Yuri Ushakov, an adviser to the Russian presidential administration, revealed that Putin had met with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow, with the 3-hour-10-minute talks described as serious and constructive. Analysts at Total Farm Marketing noted that Putin's remarks signaled Russia's openness to negotiations. However, trading sentiment was also pressured by concerns over a Federal Reserve rate hike, after August nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000 jobs, nearly three times the expected 56,000. Markets now price in a 58.4% probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the September meeting.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) revealed that China is likely to reduce its agricultural imports over the next decade, particularly rice and sugar, which could impact Thailand's exports. Meanwhile, China's grain output in 2025 hit a record high of 715 million tons, and meat production surpassed 100 million tons for the first time. Corn imports fell by 80.6% and wheat imports by 64.4%, while exports of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products increased by 6.4%, 4.4%, and 7.5%, respectively. However, China continues to increase fruit imports by an average of 6.1% per year, and poultry meat imports are expected to reach 1.27 million tons by 2035, growing at an average of 2.4% per year. Meanwhile, China's rice imports are expected to decline by an average of 9.1% per year to 0.95 million tons by 2035, and sugar imports will drop to 4 million tons as China boosts domestic production by 2.5% annually. TPSO recommends that Thai businesses upgrade product quality, especially premium fruits and processed goods, and diversify export markets.

The Public Warehouse Organization has canceled the announcement on guidelines for importing animal feed corn from neighboring countries, totaling 600,000 tons, according to the Director-General of the Department of Internal Trade, Mr. Wittayakorn Maneenetr. He stated that currently, no imports are permitted under this announcement, as the flood situation in the northern region has eased and domestic production is sufficient to meet demand. Meanwhile, the import of 120,000 tons of corn from the United States is not a new quota but falls under the existing framework, subject to the condition of purchasing domestic corn at a ratio of 3 parts domestic to 1 part imported. The Department of Internal Trade has requested importers to delay imports under the WTO quota, originally set at 572,405 tons. This round, 120,000 tons will be delivered by December 2026, with the remaining 452,405 tons postponed to 2027. As for pork and egg prices, they are expected to ease starting October 2026, as production will increase.

Corn futures are trading lower Thursday morning, giving back 3 to 4 cents after Wednesday's sharp rally. The USDA's Crop Production report raised planted acreage by 1.4 million acres to 96.7 million and pegged yield at 180.7 bushels per acre, resulting in production of 16.013 billion bushels, nearly 80 million above estimates. WASDE data showed 2025/26 ending stocks down 75 million bushels from last month on higher exports, while new crop stocks were pegged at 1.653 billion bushels. Brazil's 2025/26 production was raised 2 million tonnes to 140 million, and CONAB lifted its estimate to 142.96 million tonnes. Ethanol production rose 10,000 barrels per day to 1.117 million barrels per day in the week of August 7, with stocks up 274,000 barrels to 24.798 million barrels.

Wanxiang Doneed disclosed its 2026 semi-annual report, with first-half net profit attributable to the parent at 13.8016 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.47%. The company achieved revenue of 99.4749 million yuan, down 15.14% year-on-year, and deducted non-recurring net profit of 11.4731 million yuan, down 52.19% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was mainly due to an oversupply in the corn seed market and intensified competition, leading to a drop in average selling prices. The profit decline was also affected by a reduction in investment income. Net cash flow from operating activities was negative 16.31 million yuan, an improvement of 46% year-on-year, mainly due to lower seed production costs. The company's net profit attributable to the parent has now declined for three consecutive years, falling 9.28%, 19.39%, and 89.47% year-on-year from 2023 to 2025 respectively.

Grain futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower across the board on Tuesday, pressured by falling oil prices and an improving weather outlook for growing areas in the US Midwest. December corn fell 7.00 cents, or 1.48 percent, to settle at 4.6550 dollars per bushel. September wheat dropped 12.50 cents, or 1.92 percent, to 6.3850 dollars per bushel. November soybeans declined 14.50 cents, or 1.22 percent, to 11.7775 dollars per bushel. Weather forecasts call for regular rainfall and moderate temperatures during the first half of August, a critical period as soybeans enter their pod-setting phase. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture lowered its corn condition rating for the third consecutive week, with only 61 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, the lowest for the 31st week of the year since 2023 and below analyst expectations.

China's corn, rice, and cotton growing areas are at high risk of damage in the coming days as a heatwave spreads across the northern and eastern regions, which are the country's key agricultural zones. Vaisala, a commercial weather forecasting company, says high pressure will bring hotter-than-normal conditions this week, with Shenyang seeing maximum temperatures between 35 and 38 degrees Celsius through Thursday, August 7, while Beijing will experience temperatures in the low to mid-30s Celsius through this weekend. Meanwhile, the climate center of Shandong province, which accounts for 10 percent of domestic corn output, has warned that temperatures will remain in the mid to high 30s Celsius continuously until at least August 5, potentially affecting the summer corn yield, and high humidity from monsoon moisture could increase the risk of crop disease. In Liaoning province, which produces about 7 percent of the country's corn, officials in Jinzhou city expressed concern that major crops like corn and rice are in a critical growth stage, and that sloping and sandy areas are losing more moisture. Additionally, the heat is blanketing the Xinjiang autonomous region, which grows nearly all of China's cotton, with Xinjiang's climate center issuing a warning that temperatures of at least 35 degrees Celsius will be widespread through August 11, and Turpan could see highs reaching 50 degrees Celsius.

Corn futures are trading fractionally lower at midday on Thursday, ignoring early spillover support from wheat. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price is down half a cent at $4.18 1/4. Export sales data for the week of July 23 showed 362,916 metric tons in 2025/26 corn sales, a three-week high and 6.5 percent above the same week last year, within trade expectations of 300,000 to 600,000 metric tons. Bookings for 2026/27 reached 1.062 million metric tons, a marketing year high but 43.8 percent below the same week last year, exceeding the trade range of 0.5 to 1 million metric tons. Nearby September 2026 corn is at $4.48 1/2, down half a cent, while December 2026 corn is at $4.71 1/2, down a quarter cent.

Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited, or TFG, expects its second-half 2026 performance to recover after the second quarter of 2026, which is the low season. The company maintains its revenue growth target of 10 to 15 percent. Key support comes from live hog prices rising to 74 baht and farm-gate chicken prices at 43 to 44 baht, up about 15 to 20 percent from the trough in the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, feed costs are trending down due to the harvest season and the import of one million tonnes of corn from the United States under the WTO framework during the third and fourth quarters of 2026. In addition, the baht weakening to a range of 33 to 34 baht per dollar is boosting exports of both cooked and raw chicken, with total export volume this year expected at 90,000 to 100,000 tonnes. On the retail front, Thai Foods Fresh Market, or TFM, has raised its branch expansion target to 875 by the end of 2026, up from 850 previously. The company expects retail revenue to account for more than 50 percent of total revenue once the expansion is complete. TFG is also diversifying into new businesses, including coffee shops in front of TFM outlets and a rice mill, which will significantly reduce feed costs and boost margins.

Corn futures fell across the board on Monday, with front-month contracts leading losses of 2½ to 13½ cents, pressured by an improving weather forecast and a $7.40 drop in crude oil. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price declined 12½ cents to $4.21¼. USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 78% of the US corn crop silking, ahead of the five-year average, but condition ratings fell 4% to 63% good to excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 11 points to 361. Export shipments for the week ending July 23 totaled 1.488 million metric tons, down 7.74% from the prior week, with Mexico as the top destination. Brazil’s second corn crop harvest in the center-south region reached 60%, lagging the 68% average for this time of year.