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A group of seven OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has reached an agreement in principle to keep oil production quotas unchanged in November, according to delegates cited by Bloomberg. The decision is expected to be finalised at a video conference on Sunday, following the alliance's existing roadmap after OPEC+ signalled that further quota increases would be paused through the end of 2026. Oil futures have been moving back towards $100 a barrel amid disruptions caused by the Iran war, with diesel prices also reaching records at the pump, prompting Group of Seven countries to announce the release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks. OPEC+ agreed to a series of modest quota increases during the six months through August, theoretically reversing production cuts introduced in 2023, but those increases have had limited impact on actual global supply since the war has reduced production across the Persian Gulf, with output from major members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait remaining significantly below pre-conflict levels. OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to meet on Nov. 29 to settle production policy for 2027.

UBS said in a research report that global oil demand is likely to keep rising into the 2030s as population growth, urbanization and higher living standards in emerging markets offset slower fuel consumption from electric vehicles and efficiency gains. Global oil consumption reached a record 105 million barrels per day in 2025, equivalent to roughly 17 billion litres a day, or about two litres per person globally. UBS said transportation accounts for slightly more than half of demand, while petrochemicals, industry, buildings and power generation make up much of the remainder, with road transport alone accounting for less than half of global oil demand, passenger vehicles 27% and road freight 18%, aviation 7%, shipping 4%, rail and waterways 2%, petrochemicals 15% and other industrial uses 13%. The bank said India is increasingly positioned to take over from China as a major driver of global oil-demand growth, with India's oil consumption at about 0.6 litres per person per day versus around 1.9 litres in China, and it flagged significant growth potential in India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria as incomes rise and urbanization accelerates. UBS expects electric vehicles and improving fuel efficiency to eventually curb gasoline and diesel demand, with those fuels likely to peak sometime over the next decade, but said most growth is likely to come from sectors outside road transportation, particularly petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and ethane, alongside rising jet-fuel consumption. The report also cautioned that oil consumption figures can be distorted in countries with large petrochemical industries or major transportation hubs, citing Singapore's exceptionally high per-capita consumption because of its role as a global marine-fuel bunkering centre and aviation hub.

Petrobras said Friday it made another oil discovery in ultra-deep waters off Amapá state, strengthening indications of hydrocarbon potential along Brazil's Equatorial Margin. The find follows the company's August discovery, when Petrobras first identified the presence of oil and natural gas at the Morpho exploration well in Block FZA-M-59 in the Foz do Amazonas Basin; the oil found in August was of good quality, the company said. Petrobras said the new discovery expands knowledge about the exploration potential of the area and will provide additional information for assessing the petroleum systems and resource potential of the Foz do Amazonas sedimentary basin. The continued drilling of Morpho was aimed at evaluating deeper exploration intervals and led to this new discovery, the company added. Petrobras said recently it plans to drill three new wells in the area starting in January to determine the viability of commercial production in the environmentally-sensitive region.

Bualuang Securities said crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the fourth quarter of 2026 due to supply risks in the Middle East, after renewed clashes between the United States and Iran pushed the volume of halted oil production in the Persian Gulf from about 8.3 million barrels per day in July to more than 10 million barrels per day in August, while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 7.6 million barrels per day. As a result, Brent, which averaged 105 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, is still around 97 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and is expected to stay in a range of 90 to 100 US dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, the picture for 2027 changes, because supply is likely to return much faster than demand. The research team estimates global oil demand in 2027 will rise by an average of about 2.5 million barrels per day, while supply could increase by an average of as much as 8.6 million barrels per day. The research team therefore raised its Brent assumption for 2026 to 94 US dollars per barrel from 85 US dollars per barrel, but expects it to fall to 70 US dollars per barrel in 2027. It also raised its 2026 profit forecast for PTT by 9 percent to 149 billion baht and for PTTEP by 8 percent to 79 billion baht. It kept its weighting for the energy sector at market weight and chose PTT as its top pick with a buy rating and a target price of 48 baht, citing a more diversified earnings base and a dividend yield of about 5 to 6 percent that remains well supported. For PTTEP, it maintained a hold rating with a target price of 168 baht, noting that while the company benefits in the short term from high oil prices, 2027 carries the risk of lower oil prices as supply recovers faster than demand.

Global oil prices rebounded sharply on Thursday, October 1, after reports that the US is preparing to send a third aircraft carrier along with additional troops to the Middle East, while China suspended oil exports in October, raising concerns that global oil supply will tighten further. North Sea Brent crude futures for December delivery closed at 102.31 dollars per barrel, up 4.28 dollars, or 4.37%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery closed at 92.87 dollars per barrel, up 2.45 dollars, or 2.71%. Foreign media reported that the US Department of Defense may send one more aircraft carrier, along with about 10,000 troops and marines, to the Persian Gulf. The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has already departed from a naval base in San Diego and is expected to arrive in November. If it reaches the Middle East, the number of US carrier groups in the region will stand at three, up from the current USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington already deployed there. Scott Modell, chief executive of Rapidan Energy and a former CIA officer, said in an interview on CNBC's Squawk on the Street that he expects the president to escalate operations after the midterm elections, adding that he has consistently heard that Iran will escalate the conflict before the midterms. Meanwhile, a maritime security agency said at least three oil tankers were attacked this week while trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, China has ordered domestic refineries to halt exports of gasoline and jet fuel scheduled for October delivery, reflecting that China is preserving domestic energy supply to meet domestic demand amid the risk of a major energy supply disruption, after Ukraine attacked refineries in Russia, prompting Moscow to impose a ban on diesel exports as well. Iran and its Houthi allies have also attacked refineries in the Middle East. In the United States, there were reports that Trump was considering banning diesel fuel exports, but the US leader has softened that stance.

Global crude oil prices jumped more than 1% today after reports that Chinese refineries suspended exports of refined oil products in October. As of 19:13 Thailand time, West Texas crude for November delivery rose 1.22 dollars, or 1.35%, to 91.64 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.90 dollars, or 1.94%, to 99.93 dollars per barrel. Four sources said China has ordered major domestic refining companies to halt exports of refined oil products to other regions in October, with the exception of Hong Kong and Macau, in order to preserve domestic oil reserves. This follows China's earlier restriction on fuel exports in March after the Iran war disrupted crude oil supplies from the Middle East, before it eased the measures in July and managed exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel on a monthly basis. Investors eased concerns about supply after Saudi Arabia resumed allowing oil tankers to collect oil at the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea and reopened the East-West pipeline, while continuing to closely monitor the Middle East after MS NOW reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation to leave the United States after the conclusion of the United Nations General Assembly meeting.

Oil prices held steady in Asian trading on Thursday after rising in the previous session, as traders weighed signs of recovering Middle East crude flows against uncertainty over whether the improvement can be sustained. Brent crude futures for December edged up 0.2% to $98.23 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were little changed at $90.49 a barrel; the front-month Brent contract settled at $103.50 in the previous session. Brent gained about 14% in September, its strongest monthly increase since July, while WTI rose about 5%. Middle East crude exports reached 16.328 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the conflict began in February, according to Kpler data, though that figure remains about 3.2 million bpd below February levels. Saudi Arabia also resumed tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting its East-West pipeline, while Iran said it had received a U.S. response to its latest proposal for restoring a ceasefire. U.S. crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels last week, against a 700,000-barrel draw expected by analysts, while gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels and distillate stocks dropped 2.3 million barrels, as President Donald Trump said he was still discussing a possible ban on U.S. diesel exports.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York market closed up $1.04, or 1.16%, at $90.42 a barrel, after signs that negotiations to end the war between the United States and Iran remain stalled, which could keep global oil supply in a state of gridlock. Meanwhile, November-delivery Brent crude rose 94 cents, or 0.92%, to close at $103.53 a barrel. Over the course of September, Brent crude gained about 14%, its largest monthly increase since July of this year, while WTI crude rose about 5%. US President Donald Trump denied reports by Axios and CNN citing US officials that he was ready to ease sanctions on Iran and unfreeze Iranian funds in exchange for reaching a nuclear agreement. Oil prices also drew support from a report by the US Energy Information Administration, or EIA, showing that gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, more than the 500,000-barrel decline analysts had expected, and distillate inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels, more than the expected decline of just 200,000 barrels, even though crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 700,000-barrel decline. In addition, US inflation figures came in below expectations, with the headline PCE index up 3.4% and the core PCE index up 3.0% year on year, helping reduce the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are pricing in only a 37% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at its October meeting, down from 51% on Tuesday and from 71% last week. Meanwhile, investors are watching the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, or OPEC+, on Sunday, October 4, with the market expecting OPEC+ to keep its crude oil production quota for November unchanged.

Global crude oil prices rose after U.S. President Donald Trump denied reports that he would agree to ease sanctions on Iran. As of 10:27 p.m. Thailand time, West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery was up 2.22 dollars, or 2.51%, at 91.60 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude for November delivery was up 1.09 dollars, or 1.06%, at 103.68 dollars per barrel. Brent crude is on track to surge 14% this month, which would be its largest monthly gain since July, while WTI crude is on track to rise 6% this month after climbing above 106 dollars per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump rejected a report by Axios, which cited U.S. officials as saying he was prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and unfreeze Iranian funds in exchange for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. In a post on Truth Social, he said the report was untrue and that he had offered them nothing. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels last week, while analysts had expected a decline of 700,000 barrels. Crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. crude futures, rose by 553,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 500,000 barrels, and distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, fell by 2.2 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 200,000 barrels.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its crude oil price targets for 2027 on Tuesday, citing ongoing supply disruptions and inventory rebuilding needs. The institute increased its year-end 2027 target for West Texas Intermediate crude to $75-$85 per barrel from $70-$80, and moved its Brent crude target to $80-$90 per barrel from $75-$85. Wells Fargo analysts said they expect supply disruptions to gradually ease through 2027, but ongoing closure risks will add a premium to each barrel, and they anticipate countries will rebuild depleted energy inventories from multi-year lows as supply conditions normalize. The analysts said they expect prices to subside from recent highs but to remain above their previous targets through 2027. The institute also noted that persistent geopolitical risk and business technology spending appear likely to intensify inflation pressure, and it expects the Federal Reserve to respond with additional interest rate increases, which should slow global economic growth.

Global oil prices rose for a second day amid concerns that tensions between the United States and Iran will continue to disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East, even as oil exports from the region begin to recover. In the morning of September 29, Brent crude rose 63 cents, or 0.6%, to $105.91 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, rose 72 cents, or 0.8%, to $93.32 a barrel. Earlier, prices had surged by more than $4 a barrel during trading after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal that could have led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, before gains narrowed on signs that Qatar would step in as a mediator in talks with both sides. US and Iranian officials have held separate talks with intermediaries in an effort to find a way to end the conflict that has lasted several months, with discussions expected to focus on Iran's earlier proposal for a seven-day halt to hostilities. Preliminary data from Kpler showed that crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers rose to about 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest since February, after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased shipments, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz itself also began to recover, expected to be around 7.4 million barrels per day this month. That is still below pre-conflict levels, when about 20 million barrels per day, or roughly one-fifth of global supply, passed through the route. Some traders are still resorting to ship-to-ship transfers, which are more costly and less efficient than normal shipping, keeping oil prices supported at high levels. Persistently high energy prices also pose a risk to inflation and business costs. For Thailand, higher oil prices could feed through into fuel, transport and production costs and the trade balance, and could add pressure on inflation if the situation in the Middle East drags on.

Gold prices fell below the $4,200 level amid pressure from high US bond yields around 5.2%, while oil prices rose more than 1% on concerns over the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal regarding opening shipping routes and returning to nuclear talks. WTI crude rose 1.10% to around $97 per barrel, and Brent crude rose 1.08% to around $103 per barrel. Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations with the United States within 7 days if the US accepts Iran's conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran is ready to face war with the United States, even if it escalates to an all-out doomsday war, but is still keeping diplomatic channels open, reaffirming the same conditions that the Strait of Hormuz will open only when the US ends its attacks, lifts the maritime blockade and economic pressure measures, and returns Iran's assets. From a technical perspective, gold prices are still trading below the $4,200 area; on the 4-hour timeframe, the price is below the MA200 and RSI has fallen below 30, reflecting still-heavy selling pressure. If the price holds the $4,100 level, there is a chance of a recovery to test resistance around $4,200, but if it fails to hold, additional selling pressure could push prices lower. For trading strategy, short-term traders should wait to buy on dips near $4,100 and gradually take profits around $4,200, while medium- to long-term traders should hold off on buying and wait to assess a new base forming near the $4,100-$4,050 level. As for Thai gold, wait to buy on dips around 65,200 baht and take partial profits when prices recover toward 66,700 baht.

The dollar index held steady near a two-month high, supported by a stalemate in peace talks between the United States and Iran, which pushed oil prices sharply higher and increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. As of 11:05 p.m. Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.24% at 101.210 and was on track for a 1.7% gain this month, which would be its largest monthly increase since June. Meanwhile, investors increased their bets that the Fed will raise rates twice more this year, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating that investors now assign a 68.1% probability to a 0.25% Fed rate hike to a range of 4.00-4.25% at the October meeting, up from 57.6% a week earlier, and a 55.1% probability of another 0.25% increase to 4.25-4.50% in December, up from 44.1%. In global oil markets, crude prices surged more than 3%, with West Texas Intermediate crude breaking above 95 dollars per barrel and Brent crude topping 108 dollars per barrel, after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditional peace proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and told aides he expected the United States to strike Iran again after the November midterm elections. Investors are also watching several economic data releases this week, including the August personal consumption expenditures price index due on Wednesday, manufacturing figures on Thursday, and the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Global crude oil prices soared more than 3% after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal, which aimed to end the conflict in the Middle East and open the Strait of Hormuz. As of 7:09 p.m. Thailand time, West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 3.52 dollars, or 3.80%, to 95.93 dollars per barrel, while Brent crude for November delivery rose 3.83 dollars, or 3.67%, to 108.15 dollars per barrel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear negotiations with the United States within seven days if the Trump administration agrees to Iran's conditions. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the conditions include ending what Iran calls US acts of aggression, lifting the naval blockade and economic warfare against Iran, and unfreezing Iranian assets. Meanwhile, President Trump told his aides that he expects the United States to strike Iran again after the November midterm elections, and that the conflict with Iran is expected to end soon after the midterms, after which oil prices will decline.

The conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran that erupted on February 28 shut down both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, key passages for the world's oil and goods, at the same time. Brent crude closed at $103.87 a barrel on September 18, up about 70% since the start of the year, and touched a four-year high of $126, after trading at around $68 to $70 a barrel before the war. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which once carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day, fell by roughly 95%, and war risk insurance premiums surged from about 0.25% to between 3% and 10% of a vessel's value, pushing VLCC charter rates from the Middle East to China to $423,736 a day in early March, the highest level since record-keeping began in November 2005. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell from more than 7.5 million barrels a day at the start of the year to about 2.1 million barrels in the first half of September, a drop of more than 70%, after the East-West pipeline was suspended on September 11 and Aramco halted loadings at the Yanbu port. On the domestic impact, Thailand imports about 57% of its oil from the Middle East, diesel prices jumped from 29.94 baht a liter to 50.54 baht a liter on April 7, and the OECD expects Thailand's GDP growth to fall from 2.4% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, while the WTO expects global goods trade to grow 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, and the IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

Bitcoin and Nasdaq index futures started the new week on a sluggish note after President Donald Trump signaled he might launch a fresh military strike on Iran before the midterm elections in early November. As of 03:30 UTC, Bitcoin was down 1.3% at 83,324 dollars, with major alternative cryptocurrencies ether, XRP and solana also suffering similar losses. Futures tied to the Nasdaq index, which is weighted toward Wall Street technology stocks, traded down 0.7%. WTI crude oil futures rose nearly 1% to 93.28 dollars, with Brent crude posting a similar gain. Trump said on Sunday he expected the war with Iran to end soon but did not rule out further military strikes, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country was fully prepared for a renewed conflict and that Iran had offered a seven-day deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz along with a pause in fighting, which Trump rejected. The prolonged geopolitical uncertainty has stoked inflation concerns, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up 127 basis points to 5.20%, the highest since 2007. Bitcoin had rebounded strongly in the third quarter, rising 42% over the three months and outperforming every major asset class, including the Nasdaq and gold. Analysts are now watching US PCE inflation data, the ISM manufacturing index and nonfarm payrolls, all due this week.

Brent crude prices climbed again, rising $1.82, or 1.74%, to $106.14 a barrel, after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal concerning an end to the conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate rose $1.14, or 1.23%, to $93.55 a barrel in Monday morning trading on September 28, Asian market time. Iran continues to insist on a seven-day window for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and says it will not soften its terms, after Trump said Iran had misjudged the situation and was demanding conditions the United States might have accepted about a year ago, though he expects talks could resume within the week. Data from Kpler shows the volume of oil expected to be transferred between ships in the Gulf of Oman in September rose to about 2.5 million barrels per day, from about 1.4 million barrels per day in August, while freight rates for very large crude carriers on the Middle East-to-China route had surged above $30 a barrel. Brent prices have risen more than 70% since the start of the year and are heading for a third consecutive monthly gain. The uncertainty has prompted the market to price risk back into oil, since before the conflict about one-fifth of the world's crude and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, confirmed his country's readiness to confront the United States up to the level of a "doomsday war," but said it still keeps the diplomatic channel open so as not to miss an opportunity to build peace, amid a state of war between the two countries that has flared intermittently since February 28, affecting global oil markets, driving gasoline prices sharply higher and intensifying inflation. Araghchi made the remarks in an interview on NBC News' Meet the Press on Sunday, September 27, after the United Nations General Assembly concluded the previous week, saying there was no reason for Iran to return to diplomacy, but that he was still trying to use diplomacy because the opportunity to build peace should not be missed, and stressing that Iran is as ready to negotiate as it is to face any challenge. Earlier, on Friday, September 25, Araghchi proposed reopening shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and reviving nuclear talks with the United States within seven days if the Trump administration accepted Iran's conditions. However, recently US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal, which could have led to the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, with Iran heavily obstructing shipping through the strait as the conflict erupted, limiting oil and natural gas exports out of the Persian Gulf. In addition, The Wall Street Journal also reported that, beyond rejecting the deal, Trump said he expected to resume bombing Tehran after the US midterm elections in November.

Asian stock markets opened mixed today, September 28, with trading sentiment weighed down by rising oil prices in the morning session after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditional offer to reopen shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it unacceptable. The Nikkei opened at 66,505.94 points, up 141.74 points, or 0.21%. The Hang Seng opened at 24,554.58 points, up 44.49 points, or 0.18%. The Shanghai Composite opened at 3,878.41 points, down 9.96 points, or 0.26%. The KOSPI fell 0.41%, while the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.28%. November-delivery WTI crude oil futures rose 1.3% to 93.62 dollars per barrel in morning trading in Asia, while Brent crude rose 1.8% to 106.31 dollars per barrel. The oil price surge came after Trump told reporters at the White House on Saturday, September 26, that the United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and that massive amounts of oil are now being shipped out of the strait, saying as many as 29 vessels departed overnight. Trump's remarks followed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's disclosure to reporters on Friday, September 25, at United Nations headquarters in New York that Iran had delivered a concrete plan to the United States through Qatar, saying it was ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if it received a response meeting its specified conditions.

US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's conditional proposal to reopen shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it unacceptable, sending WTI crude up 1.14 dollars, or 1.23%, to 93.55 dollars a barrel, and Brent crude up 1.82 dollars, or 1.74%, to 106.14 dollars a barrel. Meanwhile, Dow futures fell 167 points, or 0.32%, to 51,996 on concerns about inflation and the outlook for rising interest rates. Axios reported that OpenAI has temporarily paused training its most advanced AI model to investigate tens of thousands of anomalies together with Anthropic. The state of Alabama reached a settlement with TikTok and ByteDance, under which it will receive at least 100 million dollars and potentially as much as 300 million dollars, while TikTok will be required to limit usage to a maximum of 2 hours per day.

The Persian Gulf Strait Authority, or PGSA, which Iran established to oversee the Strait of Hormuz, issued a warning on the X platform on the morning of September 27 that vessels will face consequences if they use illegal routes in the region, stating that such actions risk the loss of both life and property for ships, shipowners, captains and crew. It also warned shipowners to exercise caution to prevent violations, and said that if charterers breach the rules, all vessels of the companies involved could face restrictions in the future. Meanwhile, efforts to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz are continuing. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi disclosed that Iran has submitted a seven-day plan to the United States through Qatar, under which the United States must meet certain conditions before the strait can reopen. The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the demands is the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. However, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected the proposal, telling reporters at the White House that it was unacceptable. Before the war that the United States and Israel launched against Iran in late February, shipping through the strait had almost never been disrupted. The Strait of Hormuz is a transit route for about one-fifth of global oil demand and is also a key route for the transport of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, and fertilizer. Since the war broke out, threats and attacks in the region have brought shipping through the strait to a near standstill, driving oil and gas prices in global markets sharply higher.

US President Donald Trump revealed on Saturday, September 26, that he had rejected Iran's conditional offer regarding the reopening of shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking to reporters at the White House, he said the United States has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, and that vast quantities of oil are currently being shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz, noting that as many as 29 vessels departed overnight. He also stressed that the agreement proposed by Iran is unacceptable. Trump's remarks came after Friday, when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters at United Nations headquarters in New York that Iran had delivered a concrete plan to the United States through Qatar, and was ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days if it received a response meeting the specified conditions. Araghchi explained that the 7-day timeframe would begin counting down as soon as Washington accepted the proposal, with the United States required to take certain measures as requested by Iran, which is expected to take about 4-5 days. Then on day 6, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, and on day 7, Iran would begin negotiations with the United States to reach a complete agreement on the points of mutual consensus. The Iranian foreign minister added that what the United States is being asked to do is nothing new, but rather an agreement already contained in a memorandum of understanding signed together back in June.

West Texas and Brent crude prices rose about 3% after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, raising concerns over supply and the safety of energy infrastructure, particularly the East-West Pipeline and the port of Yanbu, which are key routes for Saudi Arabia's oil exports. West Texas crude stood at 94.61 dollars per barrel, up 2.45 dollars, and Brent crude stood at 106.60 dollars per barrel, up 3.52 dollars. The oil price situation analysis unit of Thai Oil Public Company Limited said the market is still watching tensions between the United States and Iran after the United States expanded secondary sanctions against foreign companies doing business with Iran, while Iran has signaled retaliation against countries that comply with those measures. However, after the market closed, Iran's foreign minister revealed that Iran had submitted a proposal to the United States through intermediaries during talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations to end the conflict within seven days. This development raises hopes that tensions in the Middle East may ease and opens the way for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to return to greater normality, which would help increase the volume of oil reaching global markets and reduce supply risks.