UBS Sees Global Oil Demand Rising Into 2030s, Led by Emerging Markets

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UBS said in a research report that global oil demand is likely to keep rising into the 2030s as population growth, urbanization and higher living standards in emerging markets offset slower fuel consumption from electric vehicles and efficiency gains. Global oil consumption reached a record 105 million barrels per day in 2025, equivalent to roughly 17 billion litres a day, or about two litres per person globally. UBS said transportation accounts for slightly more than half of demand, while petrochemicals, industry, buildings and power generation make up much of the remainder, with road transport alone accounting for less than half of global oil demand, passenger vehicles 27% and road freight 18%, aviation 7%, shipping 4%, rail and waterways 2%, petrochemicals 15% and other industrial uses 13%. The bank said India is increasingly positioned to take over from China as a major driver of global oil-demand growth, with India's oil consumption at about 0.6 litres per person per day versus around 1.9 litres in China, and it flagged significant growth potential in India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria as incomes rise and urbanization accelerates. UBS expects electric vehicles and improving fuel efficiency to eventually curb gasoline and diesel demand, with those fuels likely to peak sometime over the next decade, but said most growth is likely to come from sectors outside road transportation, particularly petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and ethane, alongside rising jet-fuel consumption. The report also cautioned that oil consumption figures can be distorted in countries with large petrochemical industries or major transportation hubs, citing Singapore's exceptionally high per-capita consumption because of its role as a global marine-fuel bunkering centre and aviation hub.

Impact on assets 5

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
UBS Group AG
UBSG
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

UBS research report forecasts global oil demand rising into the 2030s, highlighting its commodity research view

Consumer Staples▲ · 1 stocks
Others▲ · 3 stocks
⛏Crude Oil WTI Futures
WTI
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

UBS sees global oil demand rising into the 2030s led by emerging markets, supporting WTI crude demand

⛏Heating Oil Futures
HEATOIL
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Rising oil demand and jet-fuel/petrochemical growth imply more refining activity supporting distillate demand

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