Commodity news — oil, gold, metals, and supply-chain shifts — and the ripple to energy, mining, and materials stocks.
Timeline
What happened in Commodities
Q2 2026
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Oil crashes on Iran peace, dollar hits gold, chips mixed
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Oil prices crash on Strait of Hormuz reopening The US-Iran peace deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz, bringing back millions of barrels of oil and sending prices to multi-month lows. This hurt oil majors: Exxon and Chevron's expensive acquisitions looked strained, Shell paused a $3.5B buyback, and producers plus oilfield services faced shrinking profits.
This was the dominant force driving oil stocks and the energy sector down.
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Hawkish Fed lifts dollar, crushing gold and silver A hawkish Fed pushed the dollar to a 13-month high, which crushed gold and silver prices. It also threatened debt-financed AI data center growth, as higher borrowing costs could slow expansion.
This monetary shift hit precious metals and raised concerns for AI infrastructure spending.
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Memory chip turmoil: selloff then price hikes Memory chips sold off on SK Hynix's slowdown, but AI-driven shortages later let Micron and Samsung raise prices. This drew an antitrust suit and forced Apple, Sony and Nintendo to hike device prices.
This shows the mixed impact on chipmakers and device makers from AI demand and supply constraints.
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China rare earth curbs threaten supply chains but boost non-Chinese suppliers China's rare earth export curbs threatened global supply chains, but boosted non-Chinese suppliers who could fill the gap. This created winners and losers across the sector.
This geopolitical move had a mixed effect on rare earth stocks and supply chains.
Latest
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Hormuz Stays Shut as US-Iran War Escalates; Oil and Memory Prices Soar
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Hormuz reopening deal collapses, oil supply stays tight Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran warned ships against 'illegal routes'. The strait, which carries a fifth of world oil, remains near standstill. Brent jumped past $106 and WTI to $93. This keeps oil producers like Chevron and Exxon supported, but fuel costs stay high for airlines and consumers.
The failed deal is the key new event that keeps the oil supply crisis alive and drives energy stocks.
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US sends third carrier, China halts oil exports, tankers attacked The US is sending a third aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Middle East, China suspended October oil exports, and three tankers were attacked near Hormuz. Brent rose 4.3% to $102 and WTI to $93. This tightens global fuel supply, lifting oil and heating oil prices, while raising costs for transport and consumers.
New escalation and China's export halt are fresh supply shocks that push oil and refined products higher.
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Micron's blowout earnings confirm AI memory boom Micron reported quarterly revenue up 4.8x and profit up 12x, with record guidance for the next quarter. It has $32 billion in customer commitments and sees memory shortage lasting into 2028. This boosts memory makers like Micron and SK Hynix, but squeezes device makers like Apple and Nvidia with higher memory costs.
Micron's results show the AI memory shortage is deepening, a major force for tech and chip stocks.
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US 10-year yield tops 5% on fiscal crisis fears The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% as $40 trillion debt and $8.4 trillion in maturing bonds force heavy issuance. This pressures rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and tech, but supports banks and the dollar. Investors are advised to shift toward gold, strong-balance-sheet stocks, and AI infrastructure like power grids and data centers.
Rising long-term rates are a broad market force that affects many sectors and asset classes.
Q3 2026
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US-Iran war closes Hormuz, oil spikes, fuel costs bite
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Oil producers and refiners gain on record margins Renewed US-Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent above $106. Exxon, Chevron, Valero and Marathon gained on record refining margins, while defense and gold miners also benefited.
This is the main new event of the quarter and explains the biggest winners in commodities.
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Record fuel costs squeeze airlines, truckers and consumers Record diesel ($6.51) and jet fuel prices squeezed airlines, truckers and consumers, keeping inflation elevated. This was a direct cost from the war and hurt transport and consumer-facing sectors.
It shows the broad negative impact of the oil spike on the wider economy and specific sectors.
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Central banks hike rates, yields above 5%, tech and real estate pressured The Fed, ECB and BOJ hiked rates, pushing the 10-year yield above 5%. This pressured real estate and tech, and tech and chip stocks entered a bear market (SOX -23%).
It explains the monetary policy shift and its negative effect on rate-sensitive sectors.
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AI memory chipflation boosts Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung but squeezes Apple and Nvidia AI memory 'chipflation' boosted Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung while squeezing Apple and Nvidia. LNG doubled, grain risk rose, and Panama Canal drought added a second shipping squeeze.
It captures the mixed impact of chip shortages and additional supply chain pressures from LNG, grain and shipping.
LatestCommodities
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Commodities
KSL expects sugarcane crush to top 8.3 million tonnes next year on 17-month-high sugar prices
Chalach Chinthammit, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Khon Kaen Sugar Industry Public Company Limited, or KSL, said that world sugar prices, which have risen to around 18.94 cents per pound, a roughly 17-month high, will be a positive factor for next year's crushing season, since all sugar to be sold this year has already been forward-contracted. For the 2026/2027 crushing season, which runs from December 2026 through no later than April 2027, KSL expects sugarcane crush volumes to grow from the previous season's estimate of about 8.3 million tonnes, driven by larger sugarcane output reaching the market and water availability for cultivation that remains consistently favorable. The recent weakening of the baht, averaging around 33.64 baht per US dollar, is an additional positive factor, since about 70% of KSL's revenue comes from exporting sugar products overseas. For the 2026 fiscal year, the company expects full-year results to swing to a profit, compared with a loss of 660 million baht in 2025, because this year there is no provision for expenses related to projects in neighboring countries, and the first nine months of this year already showed a profit of about 358 million baht.
PDI Gold Posts US$68.38 Million Full-Year Loss as Expansion Presses On
PDI Gold Limited reported a full-year net loss of US$68.38 million for the 12 months to 30 June 2026, alongside sales of US$202.86 million and basic and diluted loss per share from continuing operations of US$0.11. The sharply wider annual loss puts fresh scrutiny on cash generation and cost control as the company pushes ahead with its West African project pipeline. Management confirmed it remains on track to meet 2026 production guidance of 198,000 to 220,000 ounces of gold, a contrast between volume growth and weaker earnings that hinges on whether future output translates into healthier margins and cash flow. Exploitation permits in Guinea and operating conditions in Mali remain critical swing factors, and the company's own narrative projects A$2.1 billion in revenue and A$911.0 million in earnings by 2029, requiring an earnings increase of about A$935 million from negative A$24.4 million today. Even before the result, cautious analysts had flagged that delays to Bankan and Mansounia permits could cap growth, and the larger loss may prompt a rethink of assumed production and profit upside.
Critical Materials & Supply Chain › Precious Metals Capital
Predictive Discovery · Capital · Negative PDI Gold reported a sharply wider US$68.38m full-year net loss, raising scrutiny on cash generation and cost control
Predictive Discovery · Regulation · Negative Analysts flagged that delays to Bankan and Mansounia exploitation permits in Guinea and Mali could cap growth
TC Energy Confirms Coastal GasLink Phase 2 Expansion After LNG Canada Decision
TC Energy Corporation has confirmed that Coastal GasLink Phase 2 will proceed following LNG Canada's expansion decision, nearly doubling capacity along the existing 670-kilometre route in British Columbia through new compressor stations and facility upgrades. Construction on the expansion is expected to start in early 2027, with service targeted for the early 2030s. The company also declared a continued quarterly dividend of C$0.8775 per share, or C$3.51 annualized. TC Energy's narrative projects CA$18.2 billion in revenue and CA$5.3 billion in earnings by 2029, with a fair value estimate of CA$98.78 implying 17% upside to the current price. Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from C$33.89 to C$98.78.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Supply
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Firm Power & Transition Fuels ▲Supply
TRP · Capital · Positive Coastal GasLink Phase 2 expansion confirmed after LNG Canada's decision, plus continued dividend and projected revenue/earnings growth.
Canadian Natural Resources Joins Conditional Pathways CCS Pact Targeting 16 Million Tonnes of CO2 Capture
Canadian Natural Resources and four other oil sands producers, together with the federal and Alberta governments, committed in late September 2026 via a trilateral MOU to advance the Pathways CCS project, targeting up to 16 million tonnes of CO2 capture annually by 2045, with final binding terms still pending. The conditional framework directly links potential future oil sands expansion to large-scale emissions management, which could reshape long-term cost structures, policy risk and capital allocation for Canadian Natural Resources. The company's key short-term catalyst remains operational and cash flow delivery against 2026 guidance, while the biggest current risk centers on future carbon costs and long-term policy exposure should the framework move from conditional to binding terms. Recent announcements also include substantial share buybacks alongside a CAD 0.625 quarterly dividend, highlighting a tension between returning cash today and preserving flexibility for potentially large CCS and growth commitments. The company's narrative projects CA$40.8 billion in revenue and CA$8.9 billion in earnings by 2029, with a CA$72.71 fair value estimate, while the lowest-estimate analysts assume revenues could fall to about CA$38.0 billion and earnings to CA$5.5 billion.
CNQ · Regulation · Neutral Canadian Natural Resources joins a conditional trilateral MOU on the Pathways CCS project, linking future oil sands expansion to emissions management with binding terms still pending.
CNQ · Capital · Positive Recent announcements include substantial share buybacks alongside a CAD 0.625 quarterly dividend.
Rio2 Launches 33,870-Metre Condestable Drilling, Suspends Fenix Gold Work
Rio2 Limited launched a two-phase surface drilling and district-scale exploration program at its Condestable Copper Mine in Peru while suspending drilling at the Fenix Gold Mine in Chile, according to a September 2026 company-wide exploration update. The Condestable campaign covers 33,870 metres across two phases and is designed to better understand and potentially convert both breccia-hosted and vein-hosted copper-gold-silver mineralization based on a refined geological model. The program sits on top of the August 2026 approval of the MEIA modification for Condestable, which supports expansion to 10,000 tonnes per day and dry stack tailings. Rio2 said the Fenix suspension stemmed from adverse weather, safety concerns and contractor standby costs, leaving extreme weather as the key near-term operational risk. The company's narrative projects $691.3 million in revenue and $250.6 million in earnings by 2029, requiring 59.3% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $192 million earnings increase from $58.2 million today.
Endeavour Silver's Guanacevi Mill Offline About Three Weeks After Mechanical Fault
Endeavour Silver has reported a mechanical problem with the primary ball mill at its Guanacevi Mine, with the unit expected to remain offline for roughly three weeks while repairs proceed. Processing capacity is temporarily reduced, with the regrind circuit running at about 600 tonnes per day against ordinary throughput of roughly 1,100 tonnes per day, though mining activity on site continues. The disruption has weighed on the shares, which are down 20.45% over the past 30 days and 7.83% over the past week, even as the 1-year total shareholder return stands at 13.95% and the 3-year total shareholder return is approximately three times the initial value. Endeavour Silver last closed at CA$12.25, while the most followed narrative anchors on a fair value of CA$19.30 using an 8.1% discount rate, a gap that frames the stock as 37% undervalued. That bullish case rests on the Terronera mine nearing commercial production, optimization of recoveries on track, and potential expansion of the Kolpa mine to 2,500 tonnes per day in 2026, but it also leans heavily on Terronera ramping smoothly and on Guanacevi avoiding further mechanical setbacks. A contrasting view comes from the current P/E, with Endeavour Silver trading on 38.7x earnings versus a Canadian Metals and Mining average of 15.5x and an estimated fair ratio of 18.9x.
Endeavour Mining Posts Record US$1.16 Billion Free Cash Flow, Returns US$301 Million
Endeavour Mining generated record free cash flow of about US$1.16 billion in fiscal 2025 and US$761 million in the first half of 2026, allowing it to maintain a net cash balance sheet. Those cash flows funded a record US$301 million returned to shareholders in the first half of 2026, including an interim dividend of roughly US$0.95 per share. The company's Assafou definitive feasibility study outlines a large, relatively low cost project in Côte d'Ivoire with a 16 year mine life, and the key question is whether future Assafou capex and any changes to Ivorian royalties or taxes could dilute the current dividend and buyback story. Endeavour's narrative projects US$6.2 billion in revenue and US$1.9 billion in earnings by 2029, yielding a CA$95.74 fair value and 18% upside to its current price, while some analysts had assumed revenue of about US$7.6 billion and earnings of roughly US$2.6 billion by 2029. Heightened West African royalty and tax discussions remain a risk to how much of the cash windfall reaches shareholders.
Micron Adds $43 Billion in Quarterly Sales as AI Demand Drives Blowout Earnings
Micron beat sales and profit forecasts for its latest quarter, driven by voracious demand from the AI boom, with guidance also strong except for margin comments on the earnings call that may have caused a muted market reaction. The memory chipmaker added about $43 billion in sales during the most recent quarter compared to the year-ago quarter, and more than $13 billion in sales from the quarter reported three months ago. Operating margins exploded in all business segments, exceeding 80% in some segments. Micron executives signaled tight capacity and higher prices for its products until 2028, with D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria saying expectations for tightening supply-demand conditions through both 2027 and 2028 meaningfully extend the industry's runway for strong pricing and earnings growth. The stock trades on a single-digit forward P/E ratio.
MU · Capital · Positive Micron beat sales and profit forecasts with blowout earnings and strong guidance driven by AI demand.
MU · Pricing · Positive Executives signaled tight capacity and higher prices for its products until 2028, extending strong pricing and earnings growth.
Aya Gold & Silver Reports High-Grade Boumadine Drill Results
Aya Gold & Silver reported fresh high-grade drill results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, confirming continuous mineralization along several zones and keeping resource expansion in focus. The update comes as the company's shares have returned 1.04% over one day, 36.97% over 90 days, and 129.83% on a one-year total shareholder return basis. Aya closed at CA$38.68, while the most followed analyst narrative pegs fair value at about CA$50.23, implying the stock is 23% undervalued. The Zgounder mine ramp-up is now largely complete, with processing capacity exceeding nameplate and plant recoveries reaching roughly 92%, which the company expects to drive higher silver production and lower unit costs. Aya remains tightly tied to Moroccan assets and silver prices, so regulatory shifts or weaker metal demand could challenge the upside case.
B2Gold Reports Positive 2026 Back River Drilling Results and New Tattuk Zone
B2Gold Corp. reported positive results from its 2026 Back River Gold District exploration program in Nunavut, Canada, backed by a US$51 million budget and more than 35,000 m of drilling focused on infill, resource definition, and regional target generation. The program confirmed high-grade mineralization at the Llama deposit and yielded the new Tattuk discovery at Goose, which the company says underscores the district's potential to contribute materially to future mine planning and resource growth options. The update mainly reinforces the Goose Mine resource story rather than changing the key near-term catalyst, which remains Goose ramp-up, or the biggest current risk, which is still cost and execution pressure at Goose and in higher-risk jurisdictions like Mali. The quality and convertibility of new ounces at Llama, Nuvuyak and Tattuk will influence whether Goose can offset permitting and cost risks tied to projects such as Fekola regional and Gramalote. B2Gold's narrative projects $3.7 billion revenue and $1.8 billion earnings by 2028, with a CA$8.60 fair value implying 16% upside to its current price, while some of the lowest analysts assume revenue growth of only about 5.4 percent a year and US$1.4 billion of earnings by 2029.
BTG · Technology · Positive Positive 2026 Back River drilling results confirmed high-grade mineralization at Llama and yielded the new Tattuk discovery at Goose, supporting resource growth.
BHP Unit Wins El Seguro Copper Exploration Contract in Argentina
Impulsa Mendoza has awarded Public Tender No. 2/2026 to Cerro Quebrado S.A., a BHP Group company, granting it an exploration contract with a purchase option for the El Seguro copper project in Argentina's Malargüe Western Mining District. The award gives BHP a second route into the district alongside its alliance with Kobrea Exploration, deepening its copper exploration exposure in a single emerging Andean jurisdiction. The contract sits alongside BHP's recent production and guidance updates, in which copper output in FY2026 fell 3% year on year to 1,952.8 kt and 2027 copper guidance was set below 2026 levels. BHP's narrative projects $56.1 billion in revenue and $13.3 billion in earnings by 2029, with a fair value of A$61.02, while some of the lowest ranked analysts assumed revenue would fall to about US$52.5 billion by 2029 even as earnings rose to roughly US$11.7 billion.
BHP.LSE · Supply · Positive BHP's Cerro Quebrado unit won the El Seguro copper exploration contract with a purchase option, expanding its copper resource base in Argentina
Cerro Quebrado S.A. · Supply · Positive Cerro Quebrado S.A., a BHP company, was awarded the El Seguro copper exploration contract with a purchase option
COPPER · Supply · Positive BHP's new copper exploration contract in Argentina signals potential future copper supply growth
OPEC+ Expected to Hold November Oil Quotas Steady Amid Middle East Conflict
A group of seven OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has reached an agreement in principle to keep oil production quotas unchanged in November, according to delegates cited by Bloomberg. The decision is expected to be finalised at a video conference on Sunday, following the alliance's existing roadmap after OPEC+ signalled that further quota increases would be paused through the end of 2026. Oil futures have been moving back towards $100 a barrel amid disruptions caused by the Iran war, with diesel prices also reaching records at the pump, prompting Group of Seven countries to announce the release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks. OPEC+ agreed to a series of modest quota increases during the six months through August, theoretically reversing production cuts introduced in 2023, but those increases have had limited impact on actual global supply since the war has reduced production across the Persian Gulf, with output from major members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait remaining significantly below pre-conflict levels. OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to meet on Nov. 29 to settle production policy for 2027.
BRENT · Supply · Positive OPEC+ holding quotas steady while war disruptions cut Persian Gulf output supports Brent crude prices.
WTI · Supply · Positive OPEC+ agreeing to keep November quotas unchanged, with Saudi/Iraq/Kuwait output still below pre-conflict levels, tightens supply and supports WTI.
Innovest X warns of 7 risk factors for the fourth quarter, advises against chasing prices, sets SET target of 1,715 points for 2027
Innovest X Securities has released its fourth-quarter 2026 investment strategy, warning investors to watch for seven risk signals stemming from fragile macroeconomic factors, and advising them to avoid chasing prices, to select stocks with strong financial positions, and to diversify across a range of assets. Suthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said the prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran could create a chain of risk running from elevated oil prices to inflation, financing costs, and the baht. He views developed markets such as the United States as more attractive than emerging markets, while the Thai stock market still benefits from accelerated government disbursement and investment. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Chief Economist, maintained his GDP forecasts for Thailand in 2026 and 2027 at 2.0%, even with the flooding in Bangkok, because the impact is limited in scope and the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 measures will offset it. He also raised his average oil price assumptions for 2026 and 2027 to 90 and 80 US dollars per barrel, respectively. Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Chief Investment Strategist, said corporate earnings continue to support the market, with the earnings-per-share estimate for the Thai stock market rising steadily on the back of the energy sector, and set a SET Index target of 1,715 points for 2027, with the 1,550-point area a level at which gradual accumulation starts to look attractive. Domestic standout stocks include AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB, and PR9, while foreign stocks focus on AI beneficiaries such as Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tencent, and Alibaba. Jaranpong Rattanasopha, Head of Investment Product Specialist, recommended the M-SCHD fund, which invests through the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, or SCHD, whose technology holdings are less than 10%, compared with nearly 40% for the S&P 500, and whose correlation with the S&P 500 has fallen to about 0.3, the lowest level since the fund was established in 2011. Also available are the M-SCHG fund, which invests in the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF, or SCHG, and DR23, which provides access to US ETFs under BlackRock's iShares brand through three securities: IVV23 tracking the S&P 500, IQQ23 tracking the Nasdaq-100, and SOXX23 tracking the semiconductor group.
Energy Ministry says Rama 3 oil pipeline repairs complete, expected back in service within 1 month
The Ministry of Energy has revealed that repairs to the oil pipeline in the Rama 3 area following the oil leak have progressed significantly. The repair team has completely replaced the 14-metre section of pipe where the leak was found, and is now preparing to clean and inspect the interior of the pipeline, a process known as Run Pig, along the entire oil transport route before it is brought back into service. Ms. Thitipas Chotedechachainan, Secretary to the Minister of Energy, in her capacity as chair of the intensive inspection committee for energy reform, known as the Energy Finale team, together with Mr. Chatchai Khunlohit, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Energy Business, visited the site to follow up on the progress, as well as on safety measures and care for affected residents. Mr. Ekanat Promphan, Minister of Energy, has ordered a detailed examination of water quality around the incident area and will not allow the pipeline to be brought back into service until all inspections meet the required safety standards. The pipeline is expected to return to normal operation within approximately 1 month. The Ministry of Energy has brought in the National Metal and Materials Technology Center, or MTEC, to investigate the true cause of the leak, and has instructed the pipeline's owner company to monitor the health of residents in surrounding areas who may have been affected, and to expedite discussions with operators and shops near the incident site to assess damages and pay compensation as fairly and quickly as possible.
Cummins Signs Multi-Year Natural Gas Fleet Deal With EquipmentShare
EquipmentShare.com Inc. announced a multi-year fleet agreement with Cummins Inc. to deploy up to 1 gigawatt of natural gas power generation capacity across major U.S. energy projects, centered on Cummins' C1400N6C lean-burn gas generator sets. The arrangement gives Cummins a rental and distribution partner focused on temporary power, microgrids, and battery storage solutions that can offer contractors energy cost reductions of 50% to 80% versus traditional mobile power. The deal adds another outlet for Cummins' natural gas generation and microgrid solutions, though the company's near-term swing factor remains whether it can avoid repeat EPS and EBITDA misses as incentives, tariffs and Accelera losses weigh on company-wide margins. Cummins' Q2 2026 update paired record Power Systems revenue of US$2.3b with a lower year-on-year EBITDA margin and trimmed Distribution guidance. Cummins' narrative projects $45.3 billion revenue and $5.7 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 9.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $3.0 billion earnings increase from $2.7 billion today, while some optimistic analysts had penciled in around US$50.5b of revenue and US$6.4b of earnings by 2029.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Firm Power & Transition Fuels ▲Supply
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Behind-the-Meter & On-site Power ▲Supply
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain Supply
CMI · Demand · Positive Multi-year fleet agreement with EquipmentShare to deploy up to 1GW of Cummins C1400N6C natural gas generator sets across U.S. energy projects.
CMI · Capital · Negative Article notes Cummins' near-term swing factor is avoiding repeat EPS and EBITDA misses as incentives, tariffs and Accelera losses weigh on margins, with trimmed Distribution guidance.
Ramelius Resources Sets Fiscal 2027 Gold Guidance of 205,000 to 225,000 Ounces
Ramelius Resources has issued fresh production guidance for fiscal 2027, projecting output of between 205,000 and 225,000 ounces of gold at all in sustaining costs of A$2,150 to A$2,350 per ounce. The guidance lands after a strong run in the share price, with a 90 day return of 20.9% and a three year total shareholder return of about 1.6x, though the one year total shareholder return is slightly negative. The stock last closed at A$3.88 against a widely followed fair value narrative of A$5.10, which frames the new guidance against expectations for much stronger earnings power over time. That bullish case rests on an aggressive reserve and resource expansion strategy, including a doubled exploration budget and the integration of the Spartan and Dalgaranga assets, and could crack if those acquisitions disappoint or if exploration spending fails to replace and grow reserves. On current numbers, Ramelius trades on a P/E of 58.4x, far above its peer average of 15.6x and a fair ratio of 26.8x.
Ramelius Resources · Supply · Positive Ramelius issued FY2027 production guidance of 205,000-225,000 oz at AISC of A$2,150-2,350/oz, framing its output and cost outlook
Zelensky Says Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Refineries in Response to Winter Air Attack Plans
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has revealed that Ukraine will step up its strikes on Russian oil refineries in response to Russia's preparations to intensify air attacks during the winter, aiming to pressure civilians to leave Kyiv and other cities, while stressing that Ukraine will not attack civilians. Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained documents indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a new doctrine for military strikes, which paves the way for Russian forces to attack civilian targets on a wider scale before winter sets in. The documents state that the military is permitted to strike infrastructure, logistics systems, roads, schools and hospitals. The Ukrainian leader said the policy shift stems from Putin's desire to maintain Russia's image of strength at a time when its forces are losing ground on key front lines and casualties are mounting. Earlier, Russia's foreign ministry issued a statement urging foreigners and diplomatic officials to leave Kyiv, saying Russia would continue to strike various targets systematically in retaliation for Ukraine's attacks on Russia over the past several months.
Tourmaline Oil Lifts Quarterly Base Dividend by 5%
Tourmaline Oil's board approved a 5% increase to its quarterly base dividend, effective in the fourth quarter of 2026. The higher payout lands on a share price of CA$61.99, with a 90-day share price return of 5.07% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 6.42%. The most followed valuation narrative puts fair value at CA$71.45, framing the stock as 13% undervalued, though the dividend yield of 3.39% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flow according to the data. Tourmaline Oil trades at a P/E of 63.8x versus 20x for the Canadian Oil and Gas group, 19.2x for peers, and an estimated fair P/E ratio of 23.4x, while its recent net profit margin has slipped to 7.9% from 34%.
Fourth round of tire industry price hikes this year takes effect, with all-category products raised by 2% to 5%
Entering October, the fourth round of concentrated price hikes in China's tire industry this year has officially entered its implementation period. Leading tire companies including General Science Technology, Zhongce Rubber, Sailun Tire, and Linglong Tire have raised prices by 2% to 5% across all product categories such as all-steel tires, semi-steel tires, and off-the-road tires. This is already the fourth round of concentrated price-increase notices issued by the tire industry since March this year. In its price adjustment notice, General Science Technology pointed to raw materials as the reason for the increase, saying that prices of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black have continued to rise sharply, causing tire manufacturing costs to climb rapidly. Raw materials account for more than 70% of tire production costs, with natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black together accounting for more than 60%. The simultaneous rise of these three major raw materials is the fundamental driver of this round of price increases. On carbon black, data from SunSirs shows that on October 1, the benchmark price of carbon black was reported at 11,692.86 yuan per ton, up about 59.74% year on year. On natural rubber, as of the end of the third quarter, the main Shanghai rubber futures contract closed above the 20,000 yuan per ton mark, while the average spot price in the domestic market over the same period was about 19,400 yuan per ton, up 31% year on year. On synthetic rubber, according to SunSirs data from October 1, the benchmark price of butadiene rubber was reported at 16,220 yuan per ton, up 39% year on year, and the benchmark price of styrene-butadiene rubber was reported at 16,175 yuan per ton, up about 36% year on year. According to data from Longzhong Information, as of September 29, the raw material cost index for semi-steel tires and the raw material cost index for all-steel tires both rose about 25% year on year. Zhongtai Securities believes that after cost disturbances ease, leading tire companies are expected to return to high year-on-year growth, but industry divergence will further intensify.
601500.CG · Pricing · Positive General Science Technology is a named leader raising prices 2%-5% across all categories, citing raw-material cost inflation
601058.CG · Pricing · Positive Sailun Tire is named among leading tire makers implementing a 2%-5% all-category price hike, lifting its product prices
601966.CG · Pricing · Positive Linglong Tire is named among leading tire companies implementing the 2%-5% all-category price increase
603049.CG · Pricing · Positive Zhongce Rubber is named among leading tire makers raising prices 2%-5% across all product categories
US September Jobs Report: Payrolls Slow Sharply to 29,000 Gain, Unemployment Rate Worsens to 4.2%
In the September US employment report released on the 2nd, the increase in nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000 from the previous month, far below the expected 90,000 gain, and the unemployment rate also worsened to 4.2%, its first deterioration in seven months. However, the rise in the unemployment rate is seen as driven by an increase in people willing to work, and the average pace of gains over the past three months has held at about 50,000, so the dominant view is that the employment situation remains on a stable footing. Combined with the weak content and remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson calling for cautious policy adjustment, expectations that the Fed will proceed with an additional rate hike at its meeting on the 27th and 28th of this month have receded, and the probability of a hike in the interest rate futures market has fallen from 70% at one point to 20% recently. Meanwhile, the surge in crude oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict pushed August inflation to 3.4%, far above the Fed's 2% target, and Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated plainly that "the concern is precisely inflation." In judging whether to raise rates further, the Fed plans to place weight on inflation indicators released going forward.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Negative Weak September payrolls (29k vs 90k expected) and Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's cautious remarks cut rate-hike odds from 70% to 20%, pushing the expected fed funds rate lower.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative Receding Fed rate-hike expectations on the soft jobs report lower the 10-year Treasury yield, though the oil-driven 3.4% inflation print tempers the decline.
China Skips Soybean Tariff Cut, Disappointing US Farmers
China did not signal any plan to lower tariffs on US soybeans following last month's US-China summit. Soybeans were not included in the list of goods worth 30 billion dollars targeted for tariff reductions that the two governments published after the meeting, and the American Soybean Association, a producers' group, made no secret of its disappointment. China is the largest export destination for US soybeans, but intensifying trade war has cost US producers market share to Brazilian supplies, and with the additional 10 percent tariff still in place, Chinese private buyers may keep hesitating to purchase. China indicated it intends to lower tariffs on US corn and wheat, but demand is seen as limited, and Nippon's chief grain analyst Hideki Hattori analyzes that China likely wants to hold soybeans in reserve as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with the United States. In the United States, now in harvest season, diesel prices have surged amid turmoil in the Middle East, and according to AAA, the average price as of the 2nd was about 6.37 dollars per gallon, up roughly 70 percent from a year earlier, prompting American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall to ask President Trump for support including a cut in the diesel tax.
SOYBEAN · Tariff · Negative China left the 10% tariff on US soybeans in place and excluded them from the $30B tariff-cut list, keeping Chinese buyers hesitant and pressuring US soybean demand.
Golar LNG Prices $500 Million Senior Notes at 7.5% Coupon Due 2031
Golar LNG has priced a private offering of US$500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031 at a 7.5% coupon, a funding move that directly affects its capital structure. The share price has eased 7.4% over the past month while being roughly flat over 90 days, though Golar LNG still carries a 29.7% year to date share price return and a 5 year total shareholder return above 300%. The company has secured 20-year charters for its existing FLNG units, providing $17 billion in contracted EBITDA backlog and 20 years of cash flow visibility, which is expected to drive a 4x increase in EBITDA and contracted free cash flow by 2028. Against a last close of $49.21, the most followed narrative anchors fair value at $66.28, while the stock trades on a P/E of 30.7x, above both the US Oil and Gas sector at 12.3x and peers at 12.8x. Reliance on a few large long-term charters and capital heavy FLNG build outs means contract delays or cost overruns could quickly challenge the upbeat narrative.
Eni and Repsol Weigh Partial Sale of Venezuela's Perla Gas Field
Eni and Repsol are considering selling a portion of their stakes in the Perla natural gas field off Venezuela's coast, Bloomberg reported Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter. The two European energy groups currently own 50% each of the venture and are seeking additional funds to help develop the massive offshore field, which they discovered in 2009 in shallow waters close to Venezuela's border with Colombia. Perla is estimated to hold approximately 17T cubic feet of gas, making it one of the largest gas fields in Latin America. In April, the companies reached a deal with the Venezuelan government to begin natural gas exports from the oil-rich nation by the end of 2031, an agreement with interim president Delcy Rodríguez that will enable the duo to more than double production at the Perla field. Eni and Repsol did not respond to Bloomberg's requests for comment.
UBS Sees Global Oil Demand Rising Into 2030s, Led by Emerging Markets
UBS said in a research report that global oil demand is likely to keep rising into the 2030s as population growth, urbanization and higher living standards in emerging markets offset slower fuel consumption from electric vehicles and efficiency gains. Global oil consumption reached a record 105 million barrels per day in 2025, equivalent to roughly 17 billion litres a day, or about two litres per person globally. UBS said transportation accounts for slightly more than half of demand, while petrochemicals, industry, buildings and power generation make up much of the remainder, with road transport alone accounting for less than half of global oil demand, passenger vehicles 27% and road freight 18%, aviation 7%, shipping 4%, rail and waterways 2%, petrochemicals 15% and other industrial uses 13%. The bank said India is increasingly positioned to take over from China as a major driver of global oil-demand growth, with India's oil consumption at about 0.6 litres per person per day versus around 1.9 litres in China, and it flagged significant growth potential in India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria as incomes rise and urbanization accelerates. UBS expects electric vehicles and improving fuel efficiency to eventually curb gasoline and diesel demand, with those fuels likely to peak sometime over the next decade, but said most growth is likely to come from sectors outside road transportation, particularly petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and ethane, alongside rising jet-fuel consumption. The report also cautioned that oil consumption figures can be distorted in countries with large petrochemical industries or major transportation hubs, citing Singapore's exceptionally high per-capita consumption because of its role as a global marine-fuel bunkering centre and aviation hub.
Siam Amazing Park puts 10-billion-baht land plot up for sale with rides thrown in free after floods cause 300 million baht in damage
Chaiwat Luangamornlert, chairman of the executive board and founder of Siam Amazing Park, also known as Suan Siam, has announced the sale of all of the park's land for 10 billion baht, with all rides included free of charge, after sudden flooding caused preliminary damage of no less than 300 million baht. Chaiwat described it as the heaviest damage of his life. The company is currently short of liquidity and its reserve funds are exhausted; although some revenue is still coming in, it is not enough to cover the cost of caring for more than 300 to 400 employees. Without help from financial institutions, insurance companies, or the government, the company may have to let creditors sue and enter bankruptcy proceedings. The decision to put the business up for sale came after the company sought assistance from the government, but the prime minister commented that Chaiwat owns a great deal of land and is wealthy, and that if he can sell Suan Siam, he should sell it. Chaiwat has set the sale price at only 1,000 baht per square wah for the improved and filled land, compared with a market price of about 3,000 baht per square wah, for a total value of approximately 10 billion baht, and he is ready to give away all the rides for free in order to raise money to compensate employees. As for restoring the rides, Thai technicians had estimated repair costs at 100 million baht, but in practice this cannot be done because all the rides were imported from abroad, so they must be shut down and left until the manufacturers come to inspect safety standards under the German system. The restoration and reopening is expected to take three months, down from an earlier estimate of six months, depending on approval from engineers sent by the manufacturers. Chaiwat also said the incident lacked effective warnings, with water bursting into the area very quickly at 4 a.m. and the water level rising to cover the entire area within just one hour, unlike the great flood of 2011, when there was advance warning. He said the situation is now beginning to ease somewhat, thanks to cooperation from Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, especially Khan Na Yao district, which brought in water pumps to help quickly.
Siam Amazing Park · Supply · Negative Flooding caused 300 million baht in damage, exhausting reserves and forcing the sale of the park's land and rides.
Iran Faces Pressure on All Sides as Inflation Nears 90% and US Sends More Aircraft Carriers
Iran is facing mounting economic and military pressure after the United States expanded its forces in the Middle East, while oil exports from the region have begun to recover. Bloomberg reported, citing officials and analysts, that Iran's inflation rate is approaching 90% and that the Iranian rial has weakened by about 25% against the dollar over the past two months, losing nearly half its value since the start of the year. At the same time, US export blockades have sharply reduced Iran's crude oil exports, with preliminary estimates indicating that Iran did not load crude onto tankers in September, even though some refineries in China continue to take oil from floating storage. Iran has therefore turned to expanding trade through land borders and the Caspian Sea, but these routes still lack the capacity to fully replace shipments through the Persian Gulf. On the military front, the administration of President Donald Trump is sending the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt along with roughly 10,000 additional sailors and marines toward the Middle East, which could give the United States as many as three carrier strike groups stationed in the region. Diplomatic talks have made no progress, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi proposing that Iran allow inspectors back into its nuclear program in exchange for a easing of sanctions, and the United States announced sanctions on October 1 against Iran's largest automaker and a rail systems company, after earlier measures affected Iranian flight routes. Iran is meanwhile preparing for the possibility that the United States will launch another round of airstrikes, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned it will retaliate if there is a new attack from the United States or Israel.
South Bow Raises 2026 Cash Flow Guidance to About US$665 Million
South Bow Corp. raised its 2026 distributable cash flow guidance to about US$665 million after a stronger-than-expected first half, while maintaining a quarterly dividend of US$0.50 per share. The higher guidance follows second-quarter 2026 distributable cash flow of US$175 million, up 4% from the first quarter, and reflects fee-based revenue from the Keystone Pipeline System that currently covers the dividend. The company's narrative projects $2.1 billion in revenue and $458.8 million in earnings by 2029, assuming 1.9% yearly revenue growth and a slight $1.2 million earnings decrease from $460.0 million today, with a CA$51.03 fair value implying 6% upside. Elevated debt levels and interest costs remain the key risk to watch, even as the upgraded cash flow outlook supports the near-term cash flow stability case.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Capital
SOBO · Capital · Positive South Bow raised its 2026 distributable cash flow guidance to about US$665 million after a stronger-than-expected first half, while maintaining its US$0.50 quarterly dividend.
NGEx Minerals Calls Shareholder Meeting to Approve Valle Ancho Spin-Out Into Valiente Resources
NGEx Minerals has called a special shareholder meeting to approve spinning out its Valle Ancho Project into a new company, Valiente Resources, with investors set to receive shares in both entities under a statutory plan of arrangement. The company concurrently filed a detailed technical report on Valle Ancho and plans to list Valiente on the TSX Venture Exchange, separating exploration exposure into a distinct vehicle. The spin-out does not materially change NGEx's near-term focus on Lunahuasi, which remains the main upside catalyst and key execution risk. The move sits alongside the previously raised US$175,000,000 in private placement funding and ongoing Lunahuasi programs. NGEx Minerals' narrative projects CA$510.5 million revenue and CA$160.4 million earnings by 2029, requiring earnings to improve by about CA$291 million from -CA$130.9 million today.
Critical Materials & Supply Chain › Copper Capital
NGEx Minerals · Capital · Positive NGEx calls shareholder meeting to approve spin-out of Valle Ancho into Valiente, alongside US$175M private placement funding
Valiente Resources · Capital · Positive Valiente Resources is the new vehicle receiving the spun-out Valle Ancho Project and planned TSX Venture listing
Torex Gold Reports High-Grade San Miguel Feeder Zone at Morelos
Torex Gold Resources Inc. reported strong drilling and exploration results across the Morelos Property, including the San Miguel corridor, Media Luna, ELG Underground, and regional targets such as Atzcala and El Naranjo. A particularly important development is evidence of a vertically continuous, high-grade mineralized feeder zone along the San Miguel fault, which could meaningfully influence how Torex sequences and optimizes future production at Media Luna and surrounding areas. The company reaffirmed 2026 production guidance of 420,000 to 470,000 ounces AuEq, a target that stronger grades at Media Luna and ELG Underground, combined with the emerging high-grade potential along the San Miguel corridor, could help support. Torex's narrative projects $2.2 billion revenue and $713.1 million earnings by 2029, requiring 6.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $110.6 million earnings increase from $602.5 million today. Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Torex range from CA$71.40 to CA$92.82, against a CA$92.36 fair value estimate implying 33% upside to the current price.
0VL5.LSE · Technology · Positive High-grade San Miguel feeder zone drilling results could improve production sequencing and support 2026 guidance at Morelos
Aris Mining Completes Environmental Assessment for Soto Norte Project
Aris Mining has cleared a key permitting hurdle for its Soto Norte gold copper project in Colombia by completing its Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and beginning formal community engagement ahead of an environmental licence application. The milestone follows earlier approvals on the mine plan and clarifications to Colombian regulatory protections. The company's shares have returned 15.19% year to date and posted a very large 3 year total shareholder return, though the 30 day share price return has eased 8.37%. Analysts see a narrative fair value of CA$41.53 against a last close of CA$24.95, with the gap linked to project build out and operating scale. The ongoing expansion at the Segovia operations, with the new second ball mill increasing processing capacity by 50% and a targeted production ramp up to 300,000 ounces in 2026, is described as a driver of sustained revenue growth and structurally higher operating margins.
ARIS · Regulation · Positive Aris Mining completed the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and began community engagement, clearing a key permitting hurdle for the Soto Norte gold-copper project.
GOLD · Supply · Positive Progress toward permitting and build-out of Aris Mining's Soto Norte gold-copper project signals potential future gold supply from the mine.
MEMENASaudi ArabiaIraqOmanUnited Arab EmiratesIran
Commoditiesimpact 4
Middle East Oil Exports Recover to 80% of Pre-War Levels but Freight Costs Keep Pressure On
Middle East oil exports have recovered to an estimated 80% of pre-war levels, but soaring freight costs, tanker shortages and disruption around key shipping routes are keeping pressure on the market, according to PVM Oil Associates, part of TP ICAP Group. Shipments averaged about 12.8 million barrels per day in September, with Saudi exports climbing to roughly 6 million barrels per day, approaching their 2025 monthly average, while Iraq's production rose to 3.5 million barrels per day in August as exports through southern terminals improved. Much of the recovery relies on ship-to-ship transfers, with tankers loading inside the Gulf before transferring cargo off Sohar in Oman or Fujairah in the UAE, outside the Strait of Hormuz; around 2.5 million barrels per day were expected to move through such transfers in September, up from 1.4 million in August. Daily charter rates for very large crude carriers originating inside the Gulf and transiting Hormuz have reached records of between $1 million and $1.27 million, according to LSEG data cited in the report, and the International Maritime Organization has verified 80 attacks on merchant vessels around Hormuz since the conflict began on Feb. 28, resulting in at least 22 seafarer deaths. Pressure is spreading beyond oil, with spot container rates between the Far East and northern Europe up 85% since the Iran war began to an average of $4,100, while global floating storage fell from 145 million barrels in April to around 88 million as vessels became more valuable for transporting cargo.
Lennar and KB Home Flag Rising Labor, Fuel and Tariff Cost Pressures
Lennar Corporation and KB Home both flagged rising cost pressures during their latest earnings calls, pointing to data-center-driven labor shortages, tariffs and inflation as headwinds for the housing market. On Lennar's third-quarter call in September, chairman, president and CEO Stuart Miller said labor availability is definitely one of geography, citing data centers, sporadic immigration crackdowns and tariffs, while executive vice president for homebuilding David Collins said roughly 20% of the company's divisions are seeing greater pressure than the vast majority. Miller added that the shortage shows up unevenly by trade, with landscaping an example, and said the resale market is becoming more and more of a competition, though chief operating officer Jim Parker noted increased resale activity can also unlock more move-up buyers. KB Home President and CEO Rob McGibney said his company has built direct fuel surcharges into trade contracts so they can be extracted immediately if fuel prices pull back, and expects slightly higher sequential direct costs for fourth-quarter deliveries after experiencing increasing cost pressure from fuel, general inflation and tariffs. Lennar's third-quarter revenue of $8.05 billion missed analyst estimates with new orders down 9% year-over-year, while KB Home posted a third-quarter beat with $1.297 billion in revenue and $1.05 per share. Lennar's shares were down 0.72% to $81.00 in premarket trading on Thursday, while KB Home stock declined about 2.09% to $45.50.
KBH · Supply · Negative KB Home expects higher sequential direct costs from fuel, inflation and tariffs, building fuel surcharges into trade contracts.
LEN · Supply · Negative Lennar flagged data-center-driven labor shortages, immigration crackdowns and tariffs as cost headwinds, with new orders down 9% YoY.
Laos inflation hits 7.8% in September, driven by tuition and utility costs
Laos' inflation rate in September 2026 rose to 7.8% compared with the same period a year earlier, edging up slightly from 7.7% in August. The Office of Commercial Affairs in Vientiane, citing a report from the Lao Ministry of Finance and laotiantimes.com, said the main pressure came from the education category, which surged 18.8% amid the new school term, covering tuition fees, student uniforms and textbook prices. The housing, water, electricity and cooking gas category posted the sharpest rise of all, up 30.7% from a year earlier, while the transport and communications category and the goods and services category for health and medicines also rose. For the first nine months of 2026, average inflation stood at 7.9%, down from 8.8% in the same period of 2025. Lao Ministry of Finance officials said a key external factor was higher global oil prices stemming from geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, alongside domestic factors including the government's restructuring of electricity and water prices. They also acknowledged that the system for monitoring and inspecting domestic price movements remains limited and not strict enough, and that oversight must be improved urgently.
Trump Threatens to Double Tariffs on South Korea to Force $54 Billion Alaska LNG Joint Venture
U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to double import tariffs on South Korean goods if the South Korean government does not quickly reach a conclusion on joining a $54 billion liquefied natural gas, or LNG, export project in the state of Alaska. Trump disclosed the matter to reporters before departing for a campaign event, and made clear that if South Korea does not act on the agreement promptly, the United States will impose import tariffs at double the rate. The move comes after White House officials said the $54 billion infrastructure project is part of South Korea's investment plans in the United States. However, South Korean representatives countered that joining the project requires a rigorous economic feasibility assessment first. The conflicting stances could add pressure to the trade and diplomatic relations of the two long-standing allies, after the two sides spent months negotiating tens of billions of dollars in South Korean investment, originally framed as one of the key conditions in exchange for the United States agreeing to lower import barriers. In addition, the Alaska LNG project is a key political play for the U.S. government ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, because Republicans hope this large energy project will help stimulate the economy in Alaska, a state where the race for a Senate seat is fiercely contested. However, Trump's use of retaliatory tariff measures still raises questions about his legal authority, since earlier this year the courts issued a ruling that significantly limited the president's power to set tariffs unilaterally, meaning this tariff threat could face intense legal scrutiny if it is actually enforced.
G7 Agrees to Release 100 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves After Heavy Pressure from Trump
The Group of Seven leading industrial nations, or G7, reached a historic agreement to release 100 million barrels of oil reserves onto the market immediately, in order to ease the crisis of continuously surging diesel fuel prices, amid heavy pressure from the United States government under the leadership of President Donald Trump, who called on European nations to speed up the use of their reserve stocks. A joint statement by G7 leaders said the reserve release process would begin immediately and gradually flow onto the market continuously over a period of four months, focusing on releasing diesel in a significant proportion from the first 20 days, through coordination with the International Energy Agency, or IEA, and G7 leaders will meet under the IEA's operational framework in the coming days to consider the possibility of releasing additional diesel as necessary. Diesel prices in the United States surged to a record high in September and remained elevated at an average of 6.37 US dollars per gallon on Friday. G7 members comprise France, which currently holds the group's presidency, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, with the European Union, or EU, joining the meeting as well. At this meeting, G7 leaders also agreed to refrain from enforcing restrictions on energy and energy product exports among member states, while calling on all producer groups to refrain from imposing export bans, which could further intensify tensions in the market. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that US allies in Europe should speed up delivery of energy under existing commitments and provide additional supply immediately to ease the ongoing bottleneck problem. Meanwhile, Maroš Šefčovič, the European Union's trade chief, disclosed that he had discussed diesel supply and surging prices with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during the G20 trade ministers' meeting in Milwaukee, stating that the US move to impose restrictions on diesel exports was unexpected and would have a negative impact on Europe's economic outlook. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that the United States and Japan were complying with their obligations, but that many European member states had released only a fraction of the crude oil and petroleum products they had pledged. The stance came after the US Department of Energy announced the release of up to 40 million barrels of crude oil, in line with a commitment the United States made back in March.
HEATOIL · Supply · Negative G7 releasing 100 million barrels of reserves, focused on diesel, will boost distillate/heating oil supply and pressure prices lower.
Gold Plunges 500 Baht as Rising US Bond Yields Pressure Prices
Domestic gold prices opened on October 3, 2026, down 500 baht per baht-weight of gold from yesterday's closing price, according to the Gold Traders Association. Ornamental gold is selling at 66,700.00 baht per baht-weight and buying at 64,384.52 baht per baht-weight, while gold bars are selling at 65,900.00 baht per baht-weight and buying at 65,700.00 baht per baht-weight. Gold Spot stood at 4,140.00 dollars per ounce. In overseas markets, spot gold traded at 4,138 dollars per ounce, down nearly 1% after earlier touching a high of 4,227 dollars. Although US September non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000, below analysts' forecast of 90,000, and the unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.2%, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.9%, up 4 basis points, continued to weigh on gold prices. Money markets expect the Fed to hold interest rates at its October 28 meeting with a probability of nearly 77%, and have raised the odds of a rate hike at the December meeting to 88%. Technical analysts note that key support for gold lies at 4,100 dollars per ounce; a break below that level could see prices test the July 29 low around 3,996 dollars and the July 17 low around 3,959 dollars.
New York Gold Closes Down $40 as Bond Yields Surge and Dollar Strengthens
Gold futures on the New York market closed lower on Friday, October 2, with COMEX December-delivery gold falling $40.00, or 0.95%, to settle at $4,162.30 an ounce, pressured by the dollar's appreciation this week and by 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields, which surged on Thursday to their highest levels since 2002. Early in the session, gold prices had risen more than 1% on news of a sharp slowdown in U.S. employment figures, after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 economists had expected, while the August figure was revised down to an increase of 133,000 from the previously reported 162,000. Analysts assess that gold's direction over the coming months will depend on the stance of the U.S. central bank and how much weakness in the labor market it is willing to accept, while the Fed continues to give priority to controlling inflation. Since the war between the United States, Israel and Iran began in late February, gold prices have fallen by more than 20%, as investors worry that war-driven inflation will force the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. However, the latest inflation data came in below expectations, and the stance of at least two senior Fed officials who voted against a rate hike in October has led investors to begin expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at its meeting late this month, consistent with data from the CME FedWatch Tool showing that investors now assign only a 22% probability to a Fed rate hike this month, down sharply from 70% early in the week.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold fell $40 as the dollar strengthened and Treasury yields surged, with war-driven inflation fears keeping the Fed hawkish.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive 10-year Treasury yields surged to their highest since 2002, pushing the 10Y yield up.
US-30Y.GB · Monetary · Positive 30-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels since 2002, lifting the 30Y yield.
WTI Falls 2% After EU Approves Release of 50 Million Barrels of Diesel Reserves, Sidestepping US Export Ban Threats
West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery closed Friday, October 2, down 1.76 dollars, or 1.9%, at 91.11 dollars a barrel, while Brent crude for December delivery slipped 6 cents, or 0.06%, to close at 102.25 dollars a barrel. For the week overall, WTI fell 1.6%, while Brent edged up 0.11%. The main pressure came from European leaders' willingness to comply with the demands of US President Donald Trump, who wants diesel reserves released to cool prices and reduce reliance on fuel imports from the United States. Sources told Reuters that EU member states had discussed and agreed to a French proposal to release additional diesel reserves, with the plan calling for European countries to release a total of 50 million barrels of diesel and proposing that members of the International Energy Agency release another 50 million barrels of crude reserves. Two sources said Europe would begin gradually releasing some of the diesel within a 20-day window. The French presidential office said President Emmanuel Macron chaired a conference call with G7 leaders on Friday, but it remains unclear whether G7 members agree with the volume of fuel that France proposed releasing. Analysts assess that the main pressure in the energy market is no longer a shortage of crude oil, as supply from the Middle East has begun to recover, but rather that the problem is concentrated on the refined products side, which is constrained by refining capacity and reduced output across the Middle East and Russia.
WTI · Supply · Negative EU/IEA plan to release 50 million barrels of diesel and another 50 million barrels of crude reserves adds supply, pressuring WTI lower.
BRENT · Supply · Negative Proposed coordinated release of crude reserves by IEA members adds supply, weighing on Brent.
HEATOIL · Supply · Negative EU agreement to release 50 million barrels of diesel reserves boosts refined-product supply, pressuring heating oil.
PDI Gold Posts US$68.38 Million Full Year Loss as Shares Rally
PDI Gold reported full year results to June 30, 2026, with sales of US$202.86 million and a deeper net loss of US$68.38 million. The shares have rallied sharply, with a 30 day share price return of 18.88%, a 90 day move of 33.33%, a 1 year total shareholder return of 131.82%, and a 3 year gain of around 4x. PDI Gold closed at A$5.10, while the most followed narrative assigns a fair value of A$7.44 using an 8.65% discount rate, framing the stock as 31% undervalued. The merger with Robex creates a larger platform with two producing mines and the Bankan development project, and Bankan and Mansounia mining permits, once granted, would add another producing hub in Guinea alongside Kiniero. A separate discounted cash flow model points to a fair value of A$57, a very large gap to the current A$5.10 share price.
Commerce Ministry orders 30-50% cut in egg exports to cope with floods, warns against price gouging
The Ministry of Commerce has ordered egg exporters to slow shipments and cut volumes by about 30-50% during the flood situation so that domestic demand for eggs can be met. Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Supajee Suthumpun said she had instructed relevant agencies to closely monitor the volume and prices of consumer goods in flood-hit areas and to prevent opportunistic price increases. The Department of Internal Trade has coordinated with farmers, retailers, wholesalers and exporters to manage egg supplies adequately, and has asked the Department of Livestock Development to extend the period before laying hens in cages are retired. Wattanasak Sueaiam, Director-General of the Department of Internal Trade, said cooperation had been sought from egg farms to speed up deliveries of eggs into normal trade channels and stressed that hoarding or opportunistic price hikes would not be allowed. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce is preparing to hold a "Thai Help Thai - Blue Flag" event, bringing consumer goods, cleaning supplies and home repair materials to be sold at reasonable prices in areas where the situation is easing and entering the post-flood recovery phase. On 2 October 2026, Supajee, together with Commerce Ministry Permanent Secretary Poonpong Naiyanapakorn and Wattanasak, helped pack 2,000 relief bags for distribution to people affected by flooding in Prachin Buri province. People who encounter shortages of goods, unfair sales practices, missing price labels, or who suspect hoarding or opportunistic price increases can call the Department of Internal Trade hotline on 1569.
