Heating Oil Futures

UBS said in a research report that global oil demand is likely to keep rising into the 2030s as population growth, urbanization and higher living standards in emerging markets offset slower fuel consumption from electric vehicles and efficiency gains. Global oil consumption reached a record 105 million barrels per day in 2025, equivalent to roughly 17 billion litres a day, or about two litres per person globally. UBS said transportation accounts for slightly more than half of demand, while petrochemicals, industry, buildings and power generation make up much of the remainder, with road transport alone accounting for less than half of global oil demand, passenger vehicles 27% and road freight 18%, aviation 7%, shipping 4%, rail and waterways 2%, petrochemicals 15% and other industrial uses 13%. The bank said India is increasingly positioned to take over from China as a major driver of global oil-demand growth, with India's oil consumption at about 0.6 litres per person per day versus around 1.9 litres in China, and it flagged significant growth potential in India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria as incomes rise and urbanization accelerates. UBS expects electric vehicles and improving fuel efficiency to eventually curb gasoline and diesel demand, with those fuels likely to peak sometime over the next decade, but said most growth is likely to come from sectors outside road transportation, particularly petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and ethane, alongside rising jet-fuel consumption. The report also cautioned that oil consumption figures can be distorted in countries with large petrochemical industries or major transportation hubs, citing Singapore's exceptionally high per-capita consumption because of its role as a global marine-fuel bunkering centre and aviation hub.

The US government is calling on its European allies to immediately release diesel from emergency reserves into the market to ease tight global supply. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on social media on Thursday, October 1, that the United States is doing its part and hopes allies will follow through on their commitments as well. Trump told reporters in Texas the same day that the US may ask European countries to release diesel stocks, although he had previously said he was seriously considering a ban on US diesel exports. This week, however, that stance began to soften after crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz picked up again. The US government is under political pressure to address soaring fuel prices before the midterm elections in November. Data from the American Automobile Association shows the average US diesel price hit a record high of $6.50 a gallon in late September, up sharply from a year earlier, amid the fallout from the war with Iran and Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine.

Goldman Sachs said on the 2nd that if the United States bans diesel exports, Latin America would be the region most affected. According to the report, imports from the United States account for more than 50% of consumption in Ecuador, Chile, Mexico and Peru, and a sudden halt in US supply could shave about 1% off Latin America's gross domestic product. However, drawing down inventories and increased exports from outside the United States would soften the impact. Goldman estimates that if the United States bans diesel exports, US retail diesel prices would fall by 0.25 dollars per gallon for each week the ban lasts, and after one month the measure would be expected to push down overall US inflation by 2 to 3 basis points. US President Trump said on September 30 that he is discussing a diesel export ban "every day," and the US administration is moving quickly to curb surging energy prices. According to three people familiar with the discussions, the Trump administration has asked Germany and France to release emergency diesel reserves to ease the global surge in fuel prices, warning that the United States could ban diesel exports if they refuse.

Refinery stocks led by TOP and SPRC rose sharply today after China restricted exports of oil products, prompting the market to expect that supplies of refined fuels in Asia may tighten, particularly diesel and jet fuel. At 10:28 a.m., TOP stood at 71.50 baht, up 4.50 baht, or 6.72%, with trading value of 1.09 billion baht, while SPRC stood at 14.70 baht, up 0.70 baht, or 5.00%, with trading value of 287.21 million baht. Brent crude rose 29 cents, or 0.28%, to 102.60 dollars per barrel, and WTI rose 27 cents, or 0.29%, to 93.14 dollars per barrel, after China did not allow major refineries to export diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to markets outside Hong Kong and Macau in October. Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to send a third aircraft carrier and additional troops of up to about 10,000 personnel to the Middle East, and has called on Germany and France to release diesel from emergency reserves, proposing that the European Union release a total of about 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months.

Global oil prices rebounded sharply on Thursday, October 1, after reports that the US is preparing to send a third aircraft carrier along with additional troops to the Middle East, while China suspended oil exports in October, raising concerns that global oil supply will tighten further. North Sea Brent crude futures for December delivery closed at 102.31 dollars per barrel, up 4.28 dollars, or 4.37%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery closed at 92.87 dollars per barrel, up 2.45 dollars, or 2.71%. Foreign media reported that the US Department of Defense may send one more aircraft carrier, along with about 10,000 troops and marines, to the Persian Gulf. The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has already departed from a naval base in San Diego and is expected to arrive in November. If it reaches the Middle East, the number of US carrier groups in the region will stand at three, up from the current USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington already deployed there. Scott Modell, chief executive of Rapidan Energy and a former CIA officer, said in an interview on CNBC's Squawk on the Street that he expects the president to escalate operations after the midterm elections, adding that he has consistently heard that Iran will escalate the conflict before the midterms. Meanwhile, a maritime security agency said at least three oil tankers were attacked this week while trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, China has ordered domestic refineries to halt exports of gasoline and jet fuel scheduled for October delivery, reflecting that China is preserving domestic energy supply to meet domestic demand amid the risk of a major energy supply disruption, after Ukraine attacked refineries in Russia, prompting Moscow to impose a ban on diesel exports as well. Iran and its Houthi allies have also attacked refineries in the Middle East. In the United States, there were reports that Trump was considering banning diesel fuel exports, but the US leader has softened that stance.

Chinese refineries have suspended exports of refined oil products for October 2026 as China seeks to shore up its domestic oil market, according to sources cited by Dao Securities. China entered a week-long holiday last Thursday and has not yet approved major refineries in the world's largest refining hub to export fuel products to regions other than Hong Kong and Macau for October 2026. Previously, China restricted fuel exports in March 2026 after conflict in Iran disrupted crude oil supply from the Middle East, before easing measures in July and managing diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments on a monthly basis. It remains unclear whether China will resume allowing refineries to export goods after the holiday ends on October 7, 2026, and this may depend on domestic fuel inventory levels and refinery capacity. Meanwhile, China's National Development and Reform Commission has not yet responded to requests for comment due to the public holiday. The move is seen as positive for refineries in the short term, as export restrictions will help support product price spreads and crude oil prices. For the overall refinery business outlook in the third quarter of 2026, refineries as a group are expected to report earnings that continue to grow year on year but soften quarter on quarter, tracking market and base refining margins that benefit from strong crack spreads but are offset by high freight costs and refinery price cuts. The investment rating for the energy sector remains at market weight, and upstream energy stock PTTEP remains favored with a target price of 180.00 baht, supported by expectations that average oil selling prices will hold at high levels in the third quarter of 2026.

The Oil Fuel Fund Management Committee has approved an increase in retail prices for all types of fuel by 0.75 baht per litre, effective from 2 October 2026. The increase stems from intensifying tensions in the Middle East and the lack of clear progress in indirect peace talks between the United States and Iran. On 1 October 2026, diesel prices in the Singapore market jumped above 179 US dollars per barrel, while gasoline surged above 157 US dollars per barrel. As a result, the Oil Fuel Fund has had to bear compensation costs of about 430.14 million baht per day, making it necessary to reduce the burden in order to maintain liquidity for long-term price stability. For the diesel group, ordinary high-speed diesel received an additional subsidy of 0.28 baht per litre, bringing the subsidy to 4.07 baht per litre, with a retail price of 42.19 baht per litre. High-speed diesel B20 received an additional subsidy of 0.15 baht per litre, bringing the subsidy to 8.14 baht per litre, with a retail price of 37.19 baht per litre. Premium diesel is levied at 1.50 baht per litre. For the gasoline and gasohol group, gasoline reduced its levy by 0.79 baht per litre to 1.50 baht per litre, with a retail price of 49.68 baht per litre. Gasohol 95 and 91 received an additional subsidy of 0.69 baht per litre, bringing the subsidy to 5.04 baht per litre, with retail prices of 40.69 baht per litre and 40.32 baht per litre respectively. Gasohol E20 received an additional subsidy of 0.59 baht per litre, bringing the subsidy to 8.03 baht per litre, with a retail price of 35.69 baht per litre, and gasohol E85 received an additional subsidy of 0.01 baht per litre, bringing the subsidy to 2.58 baht per litre, with a retail price of 31.63 baht per litre. The Oil Fuel Fund asks the public to use fuel economically and only as necessary, in order to reduce expenses and strengthen the fund.

China has announced a ban on major domestic refineries exporting refined oil products to other regions in October, with the exception of Hong Kong and Macau, amid concerns about domestic oil reserves. Chinese refineries have already suspended exports of refined oil products for October, according to four sources. Earlier, the Chinese government announced restrictions on fuel exports in March as the Iran war disrupted crude oil supplies from the Middle East, but it later eased those controls in July and is now managing exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel on a monthly basis. On Wednesday, state-controlled PetroChina cancelled a number of planned shipments of gasoline and jet fuel for October, while Zhejiang Petrochemical scheduled no shipments of oil products during the holiday week. The government has set the condition that exports can proceed only once domestic oil reserves return to pre-Iran war levels. For September, China exported about 1.4 million tons of diesel, 500,000 tons of gasoline and at least 2 million tons of jet fuel, including volumes under the bonded warehouse system for Hong Kong and Macau. Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said this reflects that the Chinese government wants to focus on building domestic supply security, while overseas markets are only a secondary matter.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 922,000 barrels last week, defying analysts' expectations of a 700,000-barrel decline. Meanwhile, crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. crude futures contracts, increased by 553,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels last week, more than the 500,000-barrel decline analysts had expected, while distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, dropped by 2.2 million barrels, exceeding analysts' forecast of a 200,000-barrel decline.

Russia announced it is extending its ban on diesel exports by producers until the end of October, effective from September 30. The measure deepens the crisis in global energy markets, which are already strained by fighting in Iran and Ukraine that has curbed energy shipments, and has driven diesel prices in the United States and Britain to record highs. Earlier, in late August, Russia extended its ban on diesel exports through the end of September, while still allowing deliveries to countries such as the former Soviet republics and Mongolia under intergovernmental agreements. Russia is the world's second-largest diesel exporter after the United States, but had already reduced export volumes since the summer before imposing the ban. Meanwhile, diesel prices in the United States surged to a record high above 6.50 dollars per gallon, becoming a political risk for President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections. Britain's RAC motoring association said pump prices for diesel in the UK climbed to a record high amid the fighting between the United States and Israel and Iran.

President Donald Trump is considering a range of measures, including a possible diesel export ban, to curb surging domestic fuel prices, the Financial Times reported, with administration officials having discussed restricting international diesel sales and briefing allies including Britain about possible supply disruptions. U.S. diesel prices reached $6.53 a gallon last week, more than 70% above their prewar level, and the debate has pitted Republican lawmakers from farming states against oil companies ahead of the midterm elections. Investors are also awaiting the August personal consumption expenditures price index, with the core measure seen accelerating to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.2% and the overall reading tipped to rise to 0.4% from 0.2%, while year-on-year PCE is projected at 3.3% on a core basis and 3.7% overall. U.S. stock index futures edged higher, with Dow futures up 247 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures up 21 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 52 points, or 0.2%, after New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need for urgency to tighten again. Brent crude futures expiring in November ticked up 0.3% to $102.87 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $89.24 per barrel, as signs of recovering Middle East exports offset supply concerns. China's RatingDog Manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 52.1 in September from 51.5 in August, beating expectations of 51.7 and marking the fastest expansion in five months.

US President Donald Trump said the White House is still seriously considering an export ban on diesel, amid political pressure to address soaring fuel prices ahead of the November midterm elections. Earlier this month he said he would decide quickly whether to impose an export ban, one way or the other. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the White House is weighing export restrictions rather than an outright ban. Politico reported last week that the Trump administration was preparing a plan for a 90-day diesel export ban. The idea that the United States, the world's largest diesel exporter, could impose a full export ban has drawn heavy pushback from the US energy industry, while analysts warn the move could worsen a global fuel crisis. On Friday, the average US diesel price was about 6.50 dollars per gallon, up sharply from a year earlier but still below the record 6.53 dollars per gallon set on September 22. The American Petroleum Institute was among the organizations that quickly objected to the idea of a US diesel export ban, with API CEO Mike Sommers saying that restricting US energy exports only complicates the problem, and that the answer is to increase supply and boost flexibility, not to impose new restrictions.

The research team at CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, said the administration of President Donald Trump is considering suspending US diesel exports to curb soaring domestic diesel prices. But US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said an outright ban on diesel exports is unlikely, and the proposal also faces opposition from 36 US business groups that signed a joint letter of objection. Although the details of the measure remain unclear, CGSI believes the US may use other forms of action, such as export restrictions, quotas or other mechanisms, to increase domestic supply. The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, with average export volumes of 1.4 million barrels per day over the nine months of 2026, mostly shipped to Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Europe. CGSI said US refineries are already running near full capacity, with utilisation at a record high of 97%, and deferring maintenance schedules could raise the risk of unplanned outages, another factor that would support crack spreads for refined oil products in Asia. From this perspective, CGSI maintains a Neutral investment weighting on Thailand's oil and gas sector, viewing refiners as a better choice than petrochemical producers, which are likely to face an oversupply glut for several more years.

European Central Bank Vice President Vujčić said on the 25th that reduced refining capacity is likely to keep diesel prices elevated, pushing up broad inflation measures in the euro area. Speaking at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Vujčić said, "Energy prices, especially diesel, are likely to remain high for a long time, and that will feed through to inflation. Diesel is used in so many products."

West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York market closed up $2.45, or 2.7%, at $94.61 a barrel on Thursday, September 24, after the Iran-backed Houthi group fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, raising concerns that oil supplies in the Middle East could be disrupted. Saudi forces intercepted six of the missiles, while Brent crude for November delivery closed up $3.52, or 3.4%, at $106.60 a barrel. On sanctions, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a ban on Iranian airlines operating as of Wednesday, September 23, barring Iranian carriers from flying to neighboring countries including the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Iran threatened to retaliate against neighboring countries that comply with the measures. Oil prices pared gains, however, after sources said U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York were considering a step-by-step approach to ending the war, including Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the United States lifting its economic blockade of Iran. Investors are also watching a U.S. ban on diesel exports after Politico reported, citing sources, that the Trump administration is preparing a plan to halt diesel exports for 90 days to lower domestic energy prices ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Analysts warn this could push up diesel prices on global markets and drive up costs across the U.S. economy.

The Ministry of Energy has confirmed that domestic diesel reserves remain sufficient to meet demand from the public and the business sector, amid severe volatility in global diesel prices. Weerapat Kiatfuengfoo, Deputy Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Energy and spokesperson for the ministry, said on September 24, 2026, that the ministry is closely monitoring the situation and is asking the public to cooperate by using energy economically and efficiently. As for the factors driving the volatility, the market is watching the policy direction of major oil-producing and exporting countries. In the United States, there is a proposal to restrict diesel exports, amid diesel prices above 6 US dollars per gallon, but a recent Reuters report said the US government has not yet announced a ban on diesel exports. Meanwhile, Russia is likely to extend restrictions on diesel exports for producers through the end of October 2026, after several refineries were affected and production capacity has not fully recovered to normal levels. Reuters reported on September 16 that the Russian government plans to extend the restrictions through the end of October, from the original measure in effect until September 30, 2026, causing the global diesel market to face tight supply and rapidly rising prices. The Ministry of Energy will continue to use the Oil Fuel Fund mechanism to manage prices, alongside measures to reduce refinery gate prices and promote the use of alternative fuels, especially B20 diesel, which will help increase the share of biofuel use and reduce reliance on some diesel imports. Retail price data from the Ministry of Energy as of September 24, 2026, shows that the price of B20 diesel is lower than that of B7 diesel, as part of measures to promote domestic use of alternative fuels.

The US government under President Donald Trump is pushing a ban on diesel exports, which Politico reports could last 90 days, though no official measure has been announced. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the administration is in talks with refiners to seek voluntary cooperation in cutting exports, which could serve as an alternative to an outright ban. Data from Kpler and Vortexa shows that since the start of September, Brazil has been the largest buyer of diesel and related refined products from the United States, during the early planting season that boosts demand for diesel used by tractors and trucks. Chile, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands round out the top five importers of US energy this month. US oil exports surged to a record high of nearly 2 million barrels per day last summer, and US pump prices for diesel topped 6.50 dollars per gallon, setting a new record. Analysts at S&P Global Energy said a US diesel export ban would further roil global fuel markets, since Latin America has limited spare refining capacity and few alternative import options.

Shares of Bangchak Corporation, or BCP, and Thai Oil, or TOP, rose against the broader market after Maybank Securities (Thailand) said the United States is considering a 90-day ban on diesel exports, which would keep the global diesel spread tight. BCP gained 0.50 baht, or 0.92%, to 54.75 baht, from a high of 56.75 baht, while TOP added 0.25 baht, or 0.35%, to 71.25 baht, from a high of 73.50 baht. Maybank said the administration of President Donald Trump is preparing a plan to ban diesel exports for 90 days to lower domestic energy prices, and the situation is likely to keep the global diesel market tight. For BCP, Maybank sees its valuation as attractive, with a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of just 2.8 times, the lowest in the refinery group, and gives a strategic target price of 65.00 baht. The US plan is also affecting Republicans ahead of the midterm elections on November 3.

The Oil Fuel Fund Executive Committee has resolved to reduce the fuel fund subsidy rate for diesel B7 by 0.19 baht per litre, from 4.62 baht per litre to 4.43 baht per litre, and for diesel B20 by 0.26 baht per litre, from 8.08 baht per litre to 8.54 baht per litre. As a result, retail diesel prices will rise by 0.75 baht per litre, with diesel B7 climbing to 41.44 baht per litre and diesel B20 to 36.44 baht per litre, effective from September 24 onwards. Pressure comes from Donald Trump, who has signalled that he may consider halting US diesel exports to control domestic fuel prices that have surged to 6.50 US dollars per gallon, or 75% more expensive than the same period last year, and from Russia, which is likely to extend its ban on producers exporting diesel by another month until October 31, 2026, after several refineries have still not returned to normal operations following attacks by Ukraine. Russia has enforced this measure since July 8, 2026, and normally accounts for diesel exports as high as 813,000 barrels per day in 2025. This subsidy reduction will cost the Oil Fuel Fund about 428 million baht per day.

West Texas crude for November delivery closed at $92.16 a barrel, up $1.64, or 1.81%, while North Sea Brent for the same month closed at $103.08 a barrel, up $3.83, or 3.86%. Global oil prices closed up nearly 4% on Wednesday amid volatile trading, after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the United Nations General Assembly that his country would never surrender to US pressure, one day after President Donald Trump said on the same stage that he would obliterate Iran. Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told oil industry executives to prepare for the possibility that the United States will impose restrictions on diesel exports, a measure still under consideration with no final decision reached. Oil company executives warned the White House that an export ban would drive up fuel costs worldwide, and that if the measure takes effect, Brazil, the largest buyer of US diesel, along with Chile, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, the five largest importers, may have to scramble for fuel supplies, and Latin America could face the most severe supply crunch in the near term.

Talk of a U.S. ban on diesel exports is gaining political traction, but FreightWaves energy reporter John Kingston warns the policy could create sharply uneven regional outcomes and trigger refinery run cuts that reduce overall fuel supply. The discussion comes as diesel futures swung through a 25-cent range in a single session, a move Kingston attributed in part to President Trump's remarks at the United Nations about potentially annihilating Iran, the world's fourth or fifth largest oil producer. Kingston said the structural problem is the country's regional supply imbalance: New England has no nearby refineries and depends heavily on imports from Europe, so banning U.S. exports would tighten European supply and make those imports more expensive or scarce, while the Colonial Pipeline from the Gulf Coast to New York Harbor is likely already at full capacity. The West Coast faces a similar problem because Gulf Coast diesel cannot reach it easily without transiting the Panama Canal, and tanker rates are currently off the charts. A ban would also remove a key incentive for refiners to keep output high, prompting run cuts that would reduce supplies of diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, and heating oil simultaneously, with seasonal maintenance compounding the effect. JPMorgan's commodity research team said last week it sees no resolution to elevated energy prices, noting that $100 Brent crude, $4 gasoline, and a 5-handle on the 10-year Treasury yield failed to shift administration policy. On the regulatory front, Kingston noted the federal government has issued a first-of-its-kind nationwide hours-of-service waiver for fuel haulers, the first since the COVID-era waiver that ran more than a year and a half.

Diesel averaged a record $6.51 a gallon on Sept. 21, roughly 76% more than a year earlier, as oil executives said the fuel crisis they had warned about has arrived. Distillate inventories, the category that includes diesel and heating oil, ran 13% below the five-year average in the week ending Sept. 11, while commercial crude stockpiles sat just one percent above that average, according to the Energy Information Administration. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said at a University of Texas at Austin energy conference on Sept. 11 that strategic reserve releases and loosened rules on sanctioned oil stored on tankers have largely played out, leaving the system without the buffers it had when the disruption began. Attacks shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, stranding at least 2.5 million barrels a day, and U.S. refiners were already running at 96.8% of capacity in the week ending Sept. 11, with fall maintenance season next. California drivers pay the most at $8.42 a gallon, Texas is the only state below $6 at $5.97, and the EIA's October outlook on Oct. 6 and the midterm elections on Nov. 3 are the next checkpoints.

The Chulalongkorn University Property Office is seeking the return of a large 291-rai plot in the heart of Bangkok, in the Sam Yan–Pathum Wan area, to develop public space and upgrade Suphachalasai Stadium to world-class standards. Meanwhile, the Department of Physical Education will close Nimibutr Stadium on October 1 and relocate to Thanyaburi, eyeing an area in Bang Ping for a new office and sports stadium. Uthenthawai is hurrying to find a new site, while MBK is in negotiations to renew its contract ahead of a major transformation. On the government side, authorities are overhauling data center regulation covering power, water, the environment, and urban planning, and are set to lock in rules for hyperscale facilities of 100 MW and above, mandating the use of Thai materials, with a timeline for the new criteria to take effect in mid-October 2026. As for the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 measure, its budget came in below market expectations, leading Kasikorn Securities to view it as not a significant positive factor, Bualuang Securities to see it as neutral for stocks, and Yuan Ta Securities to say the market has already priced it in. In the oil and refinery group, the global diesel market is facing severe tightness due to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. The Ministry of Energy acknowledges the Oil Fund's position is critical, with daily subsidies of 800 million baht and a deficit approaching 100 billion baht, and has signaled an increase in retail diesel prices. The latest loan tranche of 20 billion baht has been fully credited to the account, leaving as a last resort a request for the Finance Ministry to guarantee a new round of borrowing.

Diesel prices worldwide, including in the United States, have surged to an all-time record high after wars in Iran and Ukraine sharply reduced oil exports from major producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while the options available to keep prices from rising are few. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that U.S. refineries ran at their highest level in eight years in late August, while refineries elsewhere ramped up fuel production to offset capacity lost to the wars. The problem is that refineries around the world are already running close to full capacity, leaving limited options to prevent energy supply from tightening and oil prices from climbing in the months ahead. Shipping data from Kpler shows that diesel exports from the Middle East fell by half between March and August compared with the same period a year earlier, to an average of 800,000 barrels per day. In 2025, the Middle East was the source of nearly 41% of Europe's diesel imports. George Shaw, an analyst at Kpler, said that if shipping through the Red Sea faces further disruption, there is a risk that the already tight global diesel market will face even greater shortages. The average pump price of diesel in the United States rose above 6 dollars per gallon this month for the first time, while diesel inventories rose by about 600,000 barrels in the past week to 96.97 million barrels, but were still nearly 15% below the five-year average in the second week of September. Meanwhile, Asia's benchmark diesel price, the diesel swap contract, has fallen from a record high of 200 dollars per barrel in March to around 180 dollars per barrel as of September 18, but is still twice its pre-war level. China's oil exports fell 26% between April and June compared with a year earlier, after Beijing decided to restrict exports of refined oil products.

West Texas crude for October delivery closed at 95.78 dollars a barrel, down 4.52 dollars, or 4.51 percent, while the November contract closed at 92.47 dollars a barrel. North Sea Brent for November delivery closed at 100.34 dollars a barrel, down 3.53 dollars, or 3.4 percent. Prices touched a 12-day low after investors bet that this week's United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, could bring diplomatic progress toward defusing the war in Iran. Data from TankerTrackers.com showed that Saudi Aramco loaded about 14 million barrels of crude onto seven very large crude carriers in the Persian Gulf on Sunday, after attacks disrupted shipments through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, another sign that Saudi oil exports are beginning to recover partially and a factor that pushed Brent below 100 dollars a barrel for the first time since September 9. European and U.S. diesel prices hit all-time highs after the wars in Iran and Ukraine sharply reduced oil exports from major producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. U.S. pump diesel prices topped 6 dollars a gallon this month for the first time on record, while diesel stocks at Europe's oil trading hub fell to their lowest level for this time of year, according to Insights Global, and European diesel futures closed last week at a record high, more than double their level at the start of 2026, after supply disruptions spread to the Red Sea. In politics, China's Foreign Ministry said on Monday that President Xi Jinping will make an official visit to the United States from September 23 to 25 at the invitation of President Donald Trump and will hold in-depth talks with the U.S. leader on key issues in China-U.S. relations, including world peace and development. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to reaffirm Japan's commitment to large-scale investment in the United States when she meets President Donald Trump in New York on Tuesday on the sidelines of the UNGA, the first formal summit between the two leaders since Takaichi visited Washington in March. A latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found that President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to 32 percent, the lowest since he entered politics. The U.S. government proposed a 5 billion dollar fund called Partnership for Allied Construction & Trust under the leadership of the U.S. Development Finance Corporation, or DFC, to rebuild key Middle East infrastructure damaged by the war in Iran, amid a conflict that has lasted seven months. In stock markets, semiconductor shares surged on Monday after early signs that Meta Platforms' new AI Agent was a success, led by Advanced Micro Devices, Intel Corp. and Arm Holdings, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 4.3 percent for a fifth straight day of gains. SoftBank Group Corp. is considering raising more than 11 billion dollars through a junk bond issue, with plans to sell 10 billion dollars of dollar-denominated notes and 1 billion euros of euro-denominated notes to fund additional investment in OpenAI, expected to be completed next month. OpenAI unveiled its safety and security proposals for advanced AI development on Monday, focusing on alignment research and recursive self-improvement, or RSI, techniques that open the way for AI to continuously improve its own capabilities.

Exxon Mobil's 275,000-barrel-per-day Joliet refinery remained shut on Friday, leaving a meaningful slice of Midwest refining capacity on the sidelines. The Illinois plant first lost power and then faced a second operational problem when floodwater overwhelmed a pump; electricity has since returned, but Exxon has not said the two incidents were directly connected and has yet to give a firm timetable for restarting the facility. A containment boom was deployed as cleanup work continued. The refinery can turn out roughly 11 million gallons of gasoline and diesel each day, though inventories and pipeline flows can absorb part of that missing production in the short run, so the 275,000 barrels per day of offline capacity does not automatically translate into a same-sized supply shortage. With Midwest fuel prices already elevated, a prolonged shutdown would steadily remove another layer of flexibility from the regional market. Exxon shares traded at $162.69, about 27.09% above the GuruFocus GF Value estimate of $128.01.

U.S. diesel prices climbed to $6.51 a gallon on Sunday, according to AAA, pushing transport stocks lower and sending fuel costs rippling through freight, food, and consumer goods markets, with the national average up more than 40 cents in the past week alone. J.B. Hunt Transport Services stock shed more than 13% last Wednesday after finance chief Brad Delco warned at a Morgan Stanley industry conference that the company's earnings would fall between 5% and 10% from the second to the third quarter due to fuel costs, describing the swings as some of the most radical and abnormal he had ever seen and noting record diesel costs were creating at least a $10 million headwind for the company. The Energy Information Administration put the national on-highway diesel average at $6.285 a gallon as of September 14, up 32 cents from the prior week and $2.55 higher than a year earlier, while California's statewide average stood at $8.039 a gallon and national prices have risen $2.759 over the past two years. The surge stems from two overlapping supply disruptions: conflict between the U.S. and Iran has restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining infrastructure have compounded those losses, with Moscow banning diesel exports. Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, warned that households dependent on heating oil, concentrated in the Northeast, could face bills as much as 31% higher this winter if diesel prices hold at current levels, and Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley called on President Donald Trump over the weekend to impose an embargo on U.S. diesel exports, an idea Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he was open to examining while Interior Secretary Doug Burgum expressed doubt it would lower prices.