Exxon Mobil Corp

Nvidia has increased its stock buyback program by $150 billion, the largest buyback ever in the US, as the AI chip maker trades at a lower forward valuation than the broader market. According to FactSet, Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings multiple stands at 18.7x, below the S&P 500's market multiple of 19.2x, while ExxonMobil trades at 12.9x future 12-month estimates. DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas framed the two firms as underrated tickers at the center of scarcity investment stories, data and oil, noting that while the two companies in 2026 are roughly equivalent in revenue, analysts expect Nvidia to be 66% larger than Exxon in terms of revenues next year. Colas wrote that Exxon could merge with the second most valuable US energy company and still not be as large as Nvidia is likely to be in 12 months' time. Nvidia said its investments in 13 public companies and more than 200 private ones have returned three times what it put in, and it plans to deploy those winnings through share repurchases and a growing dividend.

Pioneer Natural Resources founder Scott Sheffield alleges ExxonMobil collaborated with the Federal Trade Commission in a "smear campaign" to keep him off the company's board following its $60B takeover of his company in 2024. In his new autobiography, From Tehran to the Permian, to be released in early October, Sheffield wrote, "I do firmly believe that Exxon schemed against me," and said Exxon "threw me under the bus at its earliest opportunity," referring to Exxon CEO Darren Woods. The FTC barred Sheffield from joining Exxon's board as a condition of its approval for the Pioneer deal, its largest takeover since the company merged with Mobil in 1999, following an antitrust investigation in which the FTC alleged Sheffield colluded with OPEC to push up oil prices. As part of the merger approval by the Biden administration, Exxon signed an FTC consent decree prohibiting it from appointing Sheffield to its board, and the company said at the time that the commission's allegations against Sheffield were "entirely inconsistent with how we do business." Sheffield was cleared of any wrongdoing last year by a Republican-led FTC, but said his health suffered for several "excruciating" months during the investigation, and while he said the merger was the right decision for shareholders because it generated a 19% premium for them, he wished he had not exposed Pioneer employees to Exxon's "notoriously cut-throat and dysfunctional culture."

Chevron Corporation has achieved $3 billion in annual run-rate structural cost reductions since 2024, reaching its target six months ahead of schedule, and now targets $3-$4 billion of structural cost reductions by the end of 2026. Management said more than 70% of these savings came from efficiency improvements, a distinction that matters because operational efficiencies persist beyond short-term spending cuts. In Chevron's shale operations, the company expects to spend 25% less capital per barrel of oil equivalent in 2026 compared with 2025, with savings largely offsetting inflationary pressures while production continues to grow across the Permian, Gulf of America and Guyana. The push includes portfolio optimization, greater use of technology and expanded use of global capability centers. Among peers, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation has generated $16.3 billion in cumulative structural cost savings since 2019 and targets $20 billion by 2030, while Shell plc has delivered $700 million in savings so far in 2026 toward a broader $5 billion-$7 billion target that is already about halfway achieved, ahead of schedule.

HSBC upgraded BP and TotalEnergies to Buy from Hold on Friday, raising earnings and cash flow estimates across its global oil coverage after lifting its Brent crude, refining margin, and gas price forecasts. Analysts led by Kim Fustier raised their 2026 Brent assumption to approximately $90 per barrel from $80, and their 2027 forecast to $85 from $65, citing a partial, gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows, while also raising the second-half 2026 TTF gas price forecast to $22.5 per million British thermal units from $16.7 and the 2027 forecast to $17 from $12. The revisions lifted HSBC's 2026-28 earnings-per-share estimates across the sector by averages of 19%, 65% and 33%, respectively, with cash flow per share estimates rising by averages of 12%, 30% and 14%, and the largest revisions falling on international majors given their combined upstream, refining and trading exposure. For BP, HSBC raised its price target to 640 pence from 570 pence, implying nearly 18% upside, and for TotalEnergies it raised its target to €93 from €80, implying 18.4% upside. HSBC retained Buy ratings on Shell, Repsol and Chevron, raising Chevron's price target to $250 from $218 and expecting it to lift its annual buyback run rate to $15 billion from $10-12 billion, while Eni, Equinor, Galp and ExxonMobil stayed at Hold and OMV remained at Reduce.

ExxonMobil said in its annual Energy Outlook published this week that the world is on course to fail in its efforts to reduce carbon emissions by 2050, largely because of the persistent use of coal. The report estimates coal will account for 15% of the world's energy mix by 2050, down from 25% in 2025 but up by one percentage point from Exxon's previous projection, because coal is still a significant energy source in China and other Asian countries, where it is viewed as vital for energy security. Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected at 30B metric tons by 2050, about 10% higher than expected a year ago and nearly triple the levels that a United Nations body determined would be needed to limit global warming to 2°C, or 3.6°F, above pre-industrial norms. Exxon Economic and Energy Director Prasanna Joshi said that pace implies the world is on track for a 2.5°C-3.5°C temperature increase by 2050, and the forecast also lowered its global estimate for the amount of carbon that will be captured and stored underground to about 2B metric tons by 2050 from its prior estimate of 3.1B metric tons, because of affordability and the lack of willingness to pay. Global oil consumption will reach 105M bbl/day in 2050, up from 100M bbl/day last year, and global electricity demand is expected to grow 65% by 2050 from 2025, largely in line with Exxon's previous projections.

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation said on September 14 that it expects its annual LNG sales to reach 50 million tons by 2030, up from its previous target of 40 million tons, with sales continuing to rise beyond the current decade in line with market growth. The company expects global LNG demand to grow from over 400 million tons today to around 500 million tons by 2030, before doubling by 2050, with Asia accounting for 70% of world demand by 2050. Exxon is investing heavily to expand capacity, and its Golden Pass LNG joint venture with QatarEnergy near the Texas-Louisiana border is expected to reach full production toward the end of 2027, producing 18 million metric tons per annum and ranking among the largest LNG facilities in the world. The raised outlook supports ExxonMobil's targets of $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030 compared with 2024. Exxon also warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the third quarter could reduce its Middle East output by around 750,000 boepd versus last year, after it lost around 450,000 barrels per day of output in the second quarter.

Citi strategists are closely watching five bearish narratives into year-end while maintaining their long-risk stance, according to a macro strategy note. The five risks Citi identifies are a structurally hawkish Federal Reserve, global duration risk from rising yields, a Japan carry unwind, a 1970s-style oil shock, and European natural gas disruption, with the bank arguing in each case that the market is either misreading the signal or overpricing the tail risk. On the Fed, Citi's mapping places Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, and Warsh in the hike camp, while Barr, Cook, and Waller are seen as CPI-dependent, with Waller carrying a hold bias, after core CPI rose 0.3% in August from the previous month, above expectations for a 0.2% increase. Citi has already taken profit on a one-year JPY OIS payer and on a six-month Nikkei above 61,000 / USDJPY below 157 dual digital position, the latter closed at 97%, ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for September 18. On oil, Citi's commodities colleagues estimate OECD crude inventories would not fall to the roughly 70 days of demand cover seen during the 1970s-1980s oil crises until late 2027 at current drawdown rates of approximately 3 million barrels per day, with a base case of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the fourth quarter of 2026 that could see Brent crude return to the $60s in 2027, though a partial disruption extending past the U.S. midterm elections could push Brent toward $110 per barrel. On European natural gas, Citi's commodities team estimates a probability-weighted winter TTF price of around €61 per megawatt-hour, materially below the approximately €81/MWh level priced into markets as of the note's publication. Beyond the five named risks, Citi flags AI regulation as a potential sleeper threat, writing that the biggest AI risk could come from model bans, which could be more meaningful and existential than Chinese competition or DeepSeek-style efficiency shocks.