Natural Gas Value Chain

Tamboran Resources Corporation reported a full-year net loss of US$26.07 million for the period ended June 30, 2026, an improvement from the US$36.9 million loss a year earlier, with basic loss per share from continuing operations narrowing to US$0.0058 from US$0.0126. On the same day, auditor Ernst & Young LLP issued an unqualified opinion expressing doubt about Tamboran's ability to continue as a going concern, citing funding and liquidity risk. The auditor's warning sits alongside the company's narrowing losses and centers on Tamboran's dependence on capital markets and farm-out carries to finance development of the Beetaloo Basin, which remains pre-revenue. That funding question bears on the timing and certainty of the first gas ramp-up, the key near-term catalyst for the company. Tamboran's narrative projects US$55.5 million in revenue and US$8.9 million in earnings by 2029, an implied US$43.3 million earnings increase from negative US$34.4 million today, while four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$0.20 to US$12.55 per share.

EquipmentShare.com Inc. announced a multi-year fleet agreement with Cummins Inc. to deploy up to 1 gigawatt of natural gas power generation capacity across major U.S. energy projects, centered on Cummins' C1400N6C lean-burn gas generator sets. The arrangement gives Cummins a rental and distribution partner focused on temporary power, microgrids, and battery storage solutions that can offer contractors energy cost reductions of 50% to 80% versus traditional mobile power. The deal adds another outlet for Cummins' natural gas generation and microgrid solutions, though the company's near-term swing factor remains whether it can avoid repeat EPS and EBITDA misses as incentives, tariffs and Accelera losses weigh on company-wide margins. Cummins' Q2 2026 update paired record Power Systems revenue of US$2.3b with a lower year-on-year EBITDA margin and trimmed Distribution guidance. Cummins' narrative projects $45.3 billion revenue and $5.7 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 9.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $3.0 billion earnings increase from $2.7 billion today, while some optimistic analysts had penciled in around US$50.5b of revenue and US$6.4b of earnings by 2029.

Tourmaline Oil's board approved a 5% increase to its quarterly base dividend, effective in the fourth quarter of 2026. The higher payout lands on a share price of CA$61.99, with a 90-day share price return of 5.07% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 6.42%. The most followed valuation narrative puts fair value at CA$71.45, framing the stock as 13% undervalued, though the dividend yield of 3.39% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flow according to the data. Tourmaline Oil trades at a P/E of 63.8x versus 20x for the Canadian Oil and Gas group, 19.2x for peers, and an estimated fair P/E ratio of 23.4x, while its recent net profit margin has slipped to 7.9% from 34%.

Golar LNG has priced a private offering of US$500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031 at a 7.5% coupon, a funding move that directly affects its capital structure. The share price has eased 7.4% over the past month while being roughly flat over 90 days, though Golar LNG still carries a 29.7% year to date share price return and a 5 year total shareholder return above 300%. The company has secured 20-year charters for its existing FLNG units, providing $17 billion in contracted EBITDA backlog and 20 years of cash flow visibility, which is expected to drive a 4x increase in EBITDA and contracted free cash flow by 2028. Against a last close of $49.21, the most followed narrative anchors fair value at $66.28, while the stock trades on a P/E of 30.7x, above both the US Oil and Gas sector at 12.3x and peers at 12.8x. Reliance on a few large long-term charters and capital heavy FLNG build outs means contract delays or cost overruns could quickly challenge the upbeat narrative.

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation has filed a shelf registration and launched an at-the-market follow-on equity offering of up to US$225,000,000 in common stock. Alongside the offering, the company formalized Jeffrey S. Sylvester as principal financial officer and Michael D. Galtman as principal accounting officer. The new equity capacity intersects with Chesapeake's capital-intensive regulated gas infrastructure growth plan, which relies on external funding and carries dilution and leverage risk. The company's narrative projects $1.1 billion in revenue and $203.4 million in earnings by 2029, requiring 4.5% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $54.7 million earnings increase from $148.7 million today. One Simply Wall St community member pegs Chesapeake's fair value at US$96.96, while the narrative forecasts a $145.80 fair value, a 14% upside to the current price.

U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to double import tariffs on South Korean goods if the South Korean government does not quickly reach a conclusion on joining a $54 billion liquefied natural gas, or LNG, export project in the state of Alaska. Trump disclosed the matter to reporters before departing for a campaign event, and made clear that if South Korea does not act on the agreement promptly, the United States will impose import tariffs at double the rate. The move comes after White House officials said the $54 billion infrastructure project is part of South Korea's investment plans in the United States. However, South Korean representatives countered that joining the project requires a rigorous economic feasibility assessment first. The conflicting stances could add pressure to the trade and diplomatic relations of the two long-standing allies, after the two sides spent months negotiating tens of billions of dollars in South Korean investment, originally framed as one of the key conditions in exchange for the United States agreeing to lower import barriers. In addition, the Alaska LNG project is a key political play for the U.S. government ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, because Republicans hope this large energy project will help stimulate the economy in Alaska, a state where the race for a Senate seat is fiercely contested. However, Trump's use of retaliatory tariff measures still raises questions about his legal authority, since earlier this year the courts issued a ruling that significantly limited the president's power to set tariffs unilaterally, meaning this tariff threat could face intense legal scrutiny if it is actually enforced.

Kinder Morgan is expected to report earnings per share of $0.33 for its upcoming quarter, a 13.79% increase from the same quarter a year earlier, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Revenue for the quarter is projected at $4.38 billion, up 5.73% from the year-ago period. For the full year, the consensus estimates call for earnings of $1.56 per share and revenue of $18.34 billion, representing changes of +20% and +8.26%, respectively, from the prior year. Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS projection has moved 0.51% higher, and Kinder Morgan currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). The stock trades at a Forward P/E of 19.63, a premium to its industry average of 18.52, with a PEG ratio of 2.15 versus the Oil and Gas - Production and Pipelines industry average of 1.77.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation issued updated production guidance in October 2026 following the closing of its WildFire Energy acquisition and the divestiture of non-core South Texas assets, outlining expected output levels for late 2026 and 2027. The guidance accompanies earlier updates on Magnolia's post-WildFire capital return plans, including higher dividends and ongoing buybacks, which were based on expectations for solid free cash flow and a relatively low reinvestment model. The company's move to concentrate on higher-working-interest acreage and integrate WildFire's properties shifts its production base toward a larger, more oil-weighted footprint, with the key near-term catalyst being whether the combined assets can deliver the outlined production uplift without eroding margins further. The biggest risk remains execution across a concentrated Eagle Ford and Giddings/Austin Chalk footprint, and investors are weighing whether the higher oil weighting and larger production base keep the planned returns as achievable once higher pro forma output and integration costs work through the numbers. Magnolia's narrative projects $1.6 billion in revenue and $477.8 million in earnings by 2029, requiring 6.9% yearly revenue growth and about a $160 million earnings increase from $317.6 million, while the most cautious analysts had assumed about US$2.9 billion in 2029 revenue and US$751 million in earnings.

The number of active oil rigs in the United States rose by 1 to 456 in the latest reporting period, according to Baker Hughes data published on Friday, while the total rig count for oil and gas fell to 598, up 49 from the same time last year. Gas rigs fell by 2 to 133, which is 15 more than a year ago, and miscellaneous rigs stayed flat at 9. The Permian Basin count was unchanged at 270, 19 rigs above year-ago levels, while the Eagle Ford lost a rig for the second straight week, landing at 49, 4 more than this time last year. Weekly U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.955 million bpd in the week ending September 25, up from 13.939 million bpd the prior week and up 450,000 bpd from a year ago, according to EIA data. Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count rose for a third consecutive week, up 8 crews from the prior week to 195. Oil prices were down ahead of the data release as Europe announced it would release additional crude oil and diesel from emergency reserves, with Brent trading at $101.10, down 1.14%, and WTI at $90.50, down 2.55%.

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. has received final Ministerial approval from Namibia's Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy for the transfer and assignment of a 60% participating interest in all three of its offshore Petroleum Exploration Licenses to BP Namibia Energy Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of BP Exploration Operating Company Limited. The approval, received on 1 October 2026, is the final governmental consent required under Section 11 of Namibia's Petroleum (Exploration and Production) Act for the farm-down covering PEL97, PEL99 and PEL100, and the parties are now completing the remaining closing deliverables with completion expected shortly. Under the transaction, Eco will receive a one-time cash consideration of US$2.7 million on completion and retain a 25% participating interest in each of the three licences, while BP will carry 100% of Eco's 25% retained interest plus Eco's proportionate share of the NAMCOR 10% and Local Partners 5% interests during the current exploration phase. The government-approved work program includes completing seismic reprocessing on PEL97 and acquiring at least 3,000km2 of new 3D seismic data on PEL99 and PEL100. If BP and partners elect to enter the Second Renewal Period in 2028 and commit to drilling an exploration well, Eco may exercise a Put Option to transfer an additional 10% interest to BP for a full carry on its remaining 15%, capped at US$21 million net to Eco per well on each licence, with a maximum aggregate carry of US$63 million should all three Put Options be exercised. Eco intends to use the proceeds to fund exploration and appraisal across its Atlantic Margin portfolio and for general working capital.

Yuanta Securities said Ratch Group, or RATCH, has numerous investment opportunities awaiting clarity late this year. The RG power plant's units 1-2, with capacity of 1,470MW, have already seen their contracts expire in October 2025, while three remaining units totalling 2,175MW will expire in November 2027. The company is expected to have a chance to renew power purchase agreements to support conventional power plant capacity under the new PDP plan, which is expected to become clear in November 2026. If the contracts are not renewed, the company may shift to selling electricity to data center operators, with negotiations underway with five to six customers of no less than 300MW each, and capacity to serve data center customers of up to 1,400MW through leasing a total of 2,000 rai of land and long-term power supply of 10 to 15 years. Negotiations are expected to make progress after the type 9 electricity tariff for data centers becomes clear in October 2026. Meanwhile, the draft PDP 2026 plan adds 50GW of capacity over the first 11 years from 2027 to 2037, split into 24.3GW of solar, 14.5GW of solar with storage, 2.7GW of wind, 9.1GW of natural gas and 300MW of nuclear SMR. RATCH has an advantage in renewing PPAs for natural gas plants, with the RG plant's total 3,645MW, in which it holds 100%, expiring in 2027, and the RPCL plant's 1,400MW, in which it holds 41%, expiring in 2032. On the earnings outlook, third-quarter 2026 normal profit is preliminarily expected at 1.4 to 1.6 billion baht, growing quarter on quarter as the RG and Hin Kong power plants return to full operation after maintenance shutdowns of about 22 days and 21 days respectively, and as SG&A expenses fall seasonally, though profit will decline year on year from pressure over the PPA expiries of RG units 1-2. Yuanta raised its fair value to 46.25 baht per share using a new valuation method at a PER of 16.3 times, reflecting the opportunity to renew PPAs for the RG plant, projects under the new PDP plan, the auction of roughly 1,000MW of IPP capacity in Indonesia, and renewable energy investments abroad, implying 25.9% upside, and upgraded its recommendation from Trading to Buy.

Trago Energy Pty Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Custos Energy (Pty) Ltd., has agreed to transfer its 10% participating interest in Petroleum Exploration License 90 offshore Namibia to Harmattan Energy Limited, an affiliate of Chevron Corporation, for $11MM in cash at completion plus contingent consideration tied to appraisal and production milestones. Sintana Energy Inc., which holds a 49% indirect interest in Trago, said the contingent consideration includes revenues from commercial production currently estimated at between 1.5 and 2.5 MM barrels of oil, depending on commodity price assumptions. The deal leaves Trago with continued exposure to PEL 90 prospectivity, including the Nabba-1X exploration well, while eliminating its funding and capital risk; after completion Trago will hold no participating interest in the licence and will have no obligation to fund its share of costs. Completion remains subject to governmental, regulatory and third-party approvals, and Sintana said any upfront consideration net of costs, fees and taxes will support its corporate activities. PEL 90 covers approximately 5,433 km² in the Orange Basin and is operated by Chevron; its participants, adjusted for a recently announced but uncompleted farm-out to Equinor and prior to Trago's interest exchange, are Chevron with 35.1%, Qatar Energy with 27.5%, Equinor with 17.4%, the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia with 10% and Trago with 10%. Upon completion, Custos will contribute N$10 million to the University of Namibia Foundation toward construction of UNAM's new campus in Walvis Bay.

National Fuel Gas Company has completed its previously announced acquisition of CenterPoint Energy's Ohio natural gas utility business for $2.62 billion. The deal adds roughly 335,000 customers, expanding National Fuel's utility customer base to nearly 1.1 million customers across New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Management expects the transaction to double the company's gas utility rate base to roughly $3.2 billion, increase regulated cash flows, and complement its existing New York and Pennsylvania utility businesses while maintaining its investment-grade balance sheet. The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to regulated earnings per share, neutral to consolidated adjusted results in fiscal 2028, and accretive thereafter. The article also noted recent consolidation in the U.S. oil and energy sector, including Williams' completed $5.5-billion acquisition of Momentum Midstream in September 2026 and ONEOK's agreement to acquire Brazos Midstream's Permian Midland Basin assets for $4.43 billion.

Wells Fargo downgraded Exxon Mobil to Equal Weight from Overweight with an $182 price target, while upgrading BP to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $57, up from $48, saying relative valuation is converging in BP's favor on accelerated debt reduction and resource development. In other analyst actions, Goldman Sachs upgraded Occidental to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $69, up from $63, and Argus upgraded Regeneron to Buy from Hold with an $850 price target. BTIG upgraded United Therapeutics to Buy from Neutral with a $728 price target after the company's legal win against Liquidia, which BTIG also downgraded to Neutral from Buy, while Raymond James cut Liquidia to Outperform from Strong Buy with a price target of $53, down from $106. Wells Fargo also upgraded Consolidated Edison to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $118, up from $108, and JPMorgan downgraded both Ethos to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged $37 price target and Baldwin Group to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $32, up from $30. Among new coverage, Citi initiated Rocket Lab at Buy with a $105 price target, TD Cowen initiated Teva at Buy with a $55 price target, Needham initiated Freshpet at Hold with no price target, JPMorgan initiated Spyre Therapeutics at Overweight with a $110 price target, and Oppenheimer initiated Vita Coco at Outperform with a $70 price target.

Abu Dhabi based XRG P.J.S.C is in talks to buy into the LNG Canada joint venture, where PetroChina currently holds a 15% stake. PetroChina shares trade at HK$9.665, with a 1 month share price return that declined 4.97%, a 90 day share price return of 10.46% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 44.84%. The stock carries a P/E of 8.6x, described as good value versus Hong Kong and Asian oil and gas peer averages of 11.4x and 11.6x and cheap versus an estimated fair P/E of 13.1x. It is also flagged as trading at a 61.4% discount to an internal fair value estimate, with the SWS DCF model putting fair value at HK$25.04 per share. Forecasts point to average annual earnings declines of 1.9% and revenue declines of 1.2% over the next three years, while risks include a slowdown in Mainland China demand or a change in LNG Canada timelines.

South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung-kwan said at a press conference on the 1st that the Alaska liquefied natural gas project announced by U.S. President Trump as a South Korean investment in the United States would only proceed on the premise of commercial viability, stressing that Seoul will not invest if profitability cannot be expected, and that this is what the two governments agreed. Kim explained that he expressed regret to U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick over premature media reports suggesting the investment had already been decided, and that Lutnick replied that efforts would be made to ensure the project's success. The official statements issued by the two governments note that, regarding the commercial viability requirement, a decision on whether to proceed with the project will be made if conditions under domestic law are satisfied.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has reiterated that South Korea's participation in the Alaska LNG project has not been concluded, even though U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the two countries had agreed to cooperate on the project, valued at around 50 billion dollars. The Seoul government said the decision still depends on commercial viability and legal requirements. The move follows Trump's disclosure of South Korea's plans to invest up to 200 billion dollars in U.S. energy infrastructure, covering nuclear power plants, natural gas plants in Texas, and possibly the Alaska LNG project. Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday, September 30, U.S. time, that the two countries had agreed to cooperate on the Alaska LNG project, worth approximately 50 billion dollars, and called South Korea's overall investment plan one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in U.S. history. Lee Jae-myung posted on X on Thursday, October 1, local time, that participation in the Alaska LNG project must depend on financial feasibility and compliance with legal requirements, while investment in each nuclear plant must also pass a project-by-project commercial viability assessment. The more detailed U.S. energy investment plan includes a 6,472-megawatt natural gas plant project in Encinal, Texas, worth 22.3 billion dollars, which will supply power to a data center located on the same site. It will be developed by Related Companies and NextEra Energy, with the first phase expected to begin commercial operation in 2029 and full operation phased in by 2032. In addition, 120 billion dollars has been allocated for a plan to build eight large nuclear reactors in the United States, split into 100 billion dollars in construction costs and 20 billion dollars in contingency reserves. The nuclear agreement was signed by the governments of both countries, as well as Westinghouse Electric, Korea Electric Power Corp. and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, and opens the way for South Korean companies to consider taking a significant minority stake in Westinghouse, with terms still subject to business negotiations.

Maybank Securities (Thailand) released an analysis summarising key issues in Thailand's energy and power sector after holding a special meeting with Energy Minister Ekkanat Prompan, attended by 24 institutional investors and major clients. Maybank holds a slightly negative view, as new capacity from large power plants, or IPPs, for the private sector is limited, and returns from future IPP PPA extensions tend to be relatively low. On the positive side, it sees opportunities from the opening of the electricity market through Direct PPAs and Thailand's still-strong ability to attract data centre investment. The draft PDP 2026, expected to take effect officially by October 2026, sets out the principle of balancing three goals: clean energy, energy security, and fairness. The government is developing a Smart Grid system with investment of more than 100 billion baht, and the National Energy Policy Council is opening the electricity market through Direct PPAs that allow all industrial electricity users to participate without a capacity quota limit. However, the structure of the wheeling charge for using the transmission network is still under consideration by the Energy Regulatory Commission, with the rate expected to be appropriate and competitive at slightly above 1 baht per unit. In the first phase of the draft PDP 2026, new capacity from combined-cycle gas turbine plants, or CCGTs, totals 9.1 gigawatts, of which roughly 6 gigawatts is likely to be developed by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, limiting new opportunities for the private sector, while renewable energy projects and battery energy storage systems, or BESS, remain open to private players. In the oil and gas group, the government is coordinating with the Myanmar government to secure the new gas concession Block 46, which can supply Thailand with natural gas of up to 250 million cubic feet per day, or about 6% of current demand, and will open a new round of petroleum concessions in Andaman blocks. Deepwater drilling development costs stand at 10 to 11 US dollars per million BTU, higher than 6 to 7 US dollars per million BTU on the Gulf of Thailand side, but still far cheaper than the current spot LNG price of 25 US dollars per million BTU. The government is also pushing to raise the share of long-term LNG contracts from about 30% of Thailand's natural gas supply, of which only 50% is currently under long-term contracts, to 80%, and is considering alternative LNG import sources such as Russia, as well as restructuring the gas pool price so that data centre users pay according to the marginal cost of LNG imports instead of the pooled gas price. For the oil group, the Energy Minister believes Thailand still has room to double the mandatory ethanol blending ratio from the current 10%, since raw materials from sugarcane molasses and cassava are readily available and ethanol production capacity is in surplus. Ethanol costs 20 to 21 baht per litre, compared with gasoline at 30 baht per litre. Biodiesel blending may face constraints because the price of crude palm oil, the main raw material, is relatively high compared with the price of petroleum diesel.