Firm Power & Transition Fuels

TC Energy Corporation has confirmed that Coastal GasLink Phase 2 will proceed following LNG Canada's expansion decision, nearly doubling capacity along the existing 670-kilometre route in British Columbia through new compressor stations and facility upgrades. Construction on the expansion is expected to start in early 2027, with service targeted for the early 2030s. The company also declared a continued quarterly dividend of C$0.8775 per share, or C$3.51 annualized. TC Energy's narrative projects CA$18.2 billion in revenue and CA$5.3 billion in earnings by 2029, with a fair value estimate of CA$98.78 implying 17% upside to the current price. Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from C$33.89 to C$98.78.

EquipmentShare.com Inc. announced a multi-year fleet agreement with Cummins Inc. to deploy up to 1 gigawatt of natural gas power generation capacity across major U.S. energy projects, centered on Cummins' C1400N6C lean-burn gas generator sets. The arrangement gives Cummins a rental and distribution partner focused on temporary power, microgrids, and battery storage solutions that can offer contractors energy cost reductions of 50% to 80% versus traditional mobile power. The deal adds another outlet for Cummins' natural gas generation and microgrid solutions, though the company's near-term swing factor remains whether it can avoid repeat EPS and EBITDA misses as incentives, tariffs and Accelera losses weigh on company-wide margins. Cummins' Q2 2026 update paired record Power Systems revenue of US$2.3b with a lower year-on-year EBITDA margin and trimmed Distribution guidance. Cummins' narrative projects $45.3 billion revenue and $5.7 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 9.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $3.0 billion earnings increase from $2.7 billion today, while some optimistic analysts had penciled in around US$50.5b of revenue and US$6.4b of earnings by 2029.

Eni and Repsol are considering selling a portion of their stakes in the Perla natural gas field off Venezuela's coast, Bloomberg reported Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter. The two European energy groups currently own 50% each of the venture and are seeking additional funds to help develop the massive offshore field, which they discovered in 2009 in shallow waters close to Venezuela's border with Colombia. Perla is estimated to hold approximately 17T cubic feet of gas, making it one of the largest gas fields in Latin America. In April, the companies reached a deal with the Venezuelan government to begin natural gas exports from the oil-rich nation by the end of 2031, an agreement with interim president Delcy Rodríguez that will enable the duo to more than double production at the Perla field. Eni and Repsol did not respond to Bloomberg's requests for comment.

South Bow Corp. raised its 2026 distributable cash flow guidance to about US$665 million after a stronger-than-expected first half, while maintaining a quarterly dividend of US$0.50 per share. The higher guidance follows second-quarter 2026 distributable cash flow of US$175 million, up 4% from the first quarter, and reflects fee-based revenue from the Keystone Pipeline System that currently covers the dividend. The company's narrative projects $2.1 billion in revenue and $458.8 million in earnings by 2029, assuming 1.9% yearly revenue growth and a slight $1.2 million earnings decrease from $460.0 million today, with a CA$51.03 fair value implying 6% upside. Elevated debt levels and interest costs remain the key risk to watch, even as the upgraded cash flow outlook supports the near-term cash flow stability case.

SM Energy has drawn fresh attention after reporting quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analyst expectations, at a time when many investors already view the stock as trading at a discount to peers. The past year has been strong for SM Energy, with an 84.21% year to date share price return and a 42.04% total shareholder return, even though the 30 day share price return declined 7.97%, hinting that momentum has cooled slightly after a sharp 31.25% 90 day share price rise. The most widely followed narrative frames the stock as 18% undervalued, with SM Energy closing at $35.24 against a narrative fair value of $43.18, backed by a story built around efficiency and capital discipline. The company has increased both net proved reserves and net production by over 60% since 2020 while improving production margins and keeping share count flat, and continued completion and well cost efficiencies in its Uinta and Midland Basin assets are driving lower per-unit costs. The bullish story could weaken if Uinta Basin bottlenecks squeeze realized pricing or if high, ongoing shale spending limits future free cash flow.

Petrobras said Friday it made another oil discovery in ultra-deep waters off Amapá state, strengthening indications of hydrocarbon potential along Brazil's Equatorial Margin. The find follows the company's August discovery, when Petrobras first identified the presence of oil and natural gas at the Morpho exploration well in Block FZA-M-59 in the Foz do Amazonas Basin; the oil found in August was of good quality, the company said. Petrobras said the new discovery expands knowledge about the exploration potential of the area and will provide additional information for assessing the petroleum systems and resource potential of the Foz do Amazonas sedimentary basin. The continued drilling of Morpho was aimed at evaluating deeper exploration intervals and led to this new discovery, the company added. Petrobras said recently it plans to drill three new wells in the area starting in January to determine the viability of commercial production in the environmentally-sensitive region.

Vistra Corp shares trimmed earlier losses Friday afternoon, trading down 0.3% at $139.20 after dropping to a session low of $135.79 on a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration plans to offer the company a roughly $4 billion loan package to upgrade three of its nuclear plants. The report indicated that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is expected to announce the funding as soon as Monday during a planned visit to the Perry nuclear complex northeast of Cleveland. The package would fund investments at Vistra's two plants in Ohio and another in Pennsylvania, according to people familiar with the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly. Both the Energy Department and Vistra did not immediately respond to requests for comment, according to the report. The loan would support capacity expansions at existing facilities as electricity demand grows rapidly due to power-hungry data centers seeking round-the-clock energy, with Trump having set a goal of quadrupling US nuclear capacity by 2050. Vistra supplies power to the largest US grid operator, PJM Interconnection LLC, which stretches from Illinois to Washington, D.C., and serves roughly 67 million people.

Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi met Argentine President Javier Milei in Paris on Friday to discuss energy investment and progress on the Argentina LNG project, which its developers aim to take to a final investment decision before the end of the year. Argentina LNG is being developed by Eni, state-controlled YPF and Abu Dhabi-based XRG to monetize Vaca Muerta gas through an integrated production, processing, transportation and export system. The initial development would have LNG production capacity of 12 million tonnes per annum using two floating LNG facilities of 6 million tonnes annually each, with production currently scheduled to begin in 2030, while the partners evaluate an expansion that could lift capacity to 18 million tonnes per year. The consortium signed a binding joint development agreement in February covering the 12-mtpa phase, Eni agreed in June to acquire a 32% interest in the Meseta Buena Esperanza, Aguada Villanueva and Las Tacanas blocks in Vaca Muerta, and the project applied in August to enter Argentina's Large Investment Incentive Regime, or RIGI, a step the consortium described as a milestone toward the planned year-end investment decision. The two FLNG units are expected to be located offshore Río Negro province, and Eni said Milei and Descalzi also discussed the importance of a stable framework for long-term energy investment, with the company identifying international markets including Europe as potential destinations for future Argentine LNG supplies.

Cheniere Energy is positioned to potentially extend its earnings-beat streak when it reports next on October 29, 2026, according to Zacks Investment Research. The natural gas company has topped estimates in each of its last two quarters, posting $3.02 per share against a $2.89 consensus for a 4.50% surprise, and $4.77 per share against a $3.91 consensus for a 21.99% surprise, an average surprise of 13.25% over that span. Cheniere Energy currently carries a Zacks Earnings ESP of +14.87% alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a combination Zacks research shows produces a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. The Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter, on the premise that analysts revising estimates just before a release hold the latest information.

WP Energy Public Company Limited, or WP, closed its share buyback programme for financial management on 24 September 2026, repurchasing the full 15,000,000 shares, representing 2.94% of total issued shares, with a total investment value of 57,084,060 baht out of a maximum buyback budget of no more than 63,000,000 baht under the programme approved by the board at its 6/2569 meeting. Ms. Chomkamol Poompanmuang, Chief Executive Officer of WP, said the buyback will help put excess liquidity to productive use and increase shareholder return on equity, or ROE, as well as net profit per share, or EPS. She also stressed that the company continues to press ahead with its 2026 business plan, targeting LPG sales of 770,000 tonnes, focusing on the domestic market across the petrochemical, industrial and household sectors, alongside expanding its solar rooftop business and seeking investment opportunities in alternative energy businesses related to its core operations to support future growth.

The number of liquefied natural gas carriers passing through the Strait of Hormuz in September was the highest monthly total since the Iran war began. According to S&P Global Energy, 19 vessels made the transit, with 13 originating from Qatar and 6 from the United Arab Emirates. Eric Yep, a senior principal analyst at the firm, said this exceeded the 15 transits in June, when the U.S.-Iran agreement began to take effect. Kpler data also showed 21 transits in September, up from 15 in June. Yep said LNG tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated in the second half of September, and if that pace continues into October, monthly transits could recover to 25 percent of pre-war levels. He noted that the biggest concern is whether LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz can be sustained through the winter.

ConocoPhillips and Venture Global have signed a deal that would see the liquefied natural gas major supply 1 million tons to Conoco beginning in 2030. The agreement, described as a 20-year arrangement, makes ConocoPhillips a long-term partner of Venture Global, whose chief executive Mike Sabel said it reflects continued market confidence in the company's ability to deliver reliable, low-cost U.S. LNG quickly and at scale. The deal lands as Venture Global faces litigation from half a dozen international oil majors, including Shell, BP and Repsol, which accused the company in 2023 of profiteering by selling LNG cargoes on the higher-priced spot market that should have been supplied under long-term contracts. Shell lost its arbitration against Venture Global in August, while BP won a ruling in its favor two months later. Venture Global currently holds a total of 100 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually in capacity, including operating capacity and capacity under construction and development, making it one of the biggest LNG traders globally.

PTT, together with the Royal Thai Air Force, is driving forward the installation of solar power generation systems across 3 projects. These comprise floating solar power generation systems at the Air Operations Control Command and the 3rd Air Force Armament Factory of the Air Force Armament Department, and rooftop solar power generation systems at the Navaminda Kasatriyadhiraj Royal Air Force Academy within the Air Operations Control Command area of the Royal Thai Air Force. The projects operate under 25-year power purchase agreements. They help reduce the Royal Thai Air Force's utility expenses by approximately 52 million baht over the life of the projects and help cut greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 40,280 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Air Chief Marshal Wisut Somphakdee, Chairman of the Royal Thai Air Force Renewable Energy Committee, and Dr. Buranin Rattanasombat, Chief Operating Officer of the New Business and Sustainability Group at PTT Public Company Limited, jointly presided over the project opening ceremony. The initiative supports the use of environmentally friendly energy and drives Thailand's greenhouse gas reduction and Net Zero goals over the long term.

Dao Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited said in an analysis note today that it holds a positive view on Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, expecting third-quarter 2026 profit to grow both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The main supporting factor is the GHECO-1 power plant, which has resumed operations more smoothly, while demand for electricity and steam from industrial customers, or IUs, in 2026 is expected to grow about 4% and 7% respectively from the previous year, helping support the performance of the small power producer, or SPP, business even though natural gas costs remain high. Dao Securities maintains its normal profit forecasts for GPSC in 2026 and 2027 at 6.9 billion baht and 7.1 billion baht, down 4% and up 3% respectively from the previous year. In 2027, the company is expected to benefit from a likely decline in Pool Gas costs, as well as EBITDA that is expected to rise by more than 900 million baht. Dao Securities therefore maintains its Buy recommendation on GPSC with a target price of 60 baht.

Yuanta Securities said Ratch Group, or RATCH, has numerous investment opportunities awaiting clarity late this year. The RG power plant's units 1-2, with capacity of 1,470MW, have already seen their contracts expire in October 2025, while three remaining units totalling 2,175MW will expire in November 2027. The company is expected to have a chance to renew power purchase agreements to support conventional power plant capacity under the new PDP plan, which is expected to become clear in November 2026. If the contracts are not renewed, the company may shift to selling electricity to data center operators, with negotiations underway with five to six customers of no less than 300MW each, and capacity to serve data center customers of up to 1,400MW through leasing a total of 2,000 rai of land and long-term power supply of 10 to 15 years. Negotiations are expected to make progress after the type 9 electricity tariff for data centers becomes clear in October 2026. Meanwhile, the draft PDP 2026 plan adds 50GW of capacity over the first 11 years from 2027 to 2037, split into 24.3GW of solar, 14.5GW of solar with storage, 2.7GW of wind, 9.1GW of natural gas and 300MW of nuclear SMR. RATCH has an advantage in renewing PPAs for natural gas plants, with the RG plant's total 3,645MW, in which it holds 100%, expiring in 2027, and the RPCL plant's 1,400MW, in which it holds 41%, expiring in 2032. On the earnings outlook, third-quarter 2026 normal profit is preliminarily expected at 1.4 to 1.6 billion baht, growing quarter on quarter as the RG and Hin Kong power plants return to full operation after maintenance shutdowns of about 22 days and 21 days respectively, and as SG&A expenses fall seasonally, though profit will decline year on year from pressure over the PPA expiries of RG units 1-2. Yuanta raised its fair value to 46.25 baht per share using a new valuation method at a PER of 16.3 times, reflecting the opportunity to renew PPAs for the RG plant, projects under the new PDP plan, the auction of roughly 1,000MW of IPP capacity in Indonesia, and renewable energy investments abroad, implying 25.9% upside, and upgraded its recommendation from Trading to Buy.

Kanita Sasivattaya took up the position of Chief Executive Officer of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, on 1 October 2026, and set out a vision to carry forward the mission of building energy security for the country by maintaining continuous petroleum production capacity while pursuing growth abroad in strategically important areas. On corporate management, operations will be conducted under a sustainability approach and will drive the goal of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, as well as preparing to accommodate changes in the energy industry through digital technology and AI, personnel development, and the cultivation of a new generation of leaders. Kanita has more than 30 years of experience in the petroleum exploration and production business and has played a key role in driving the development of three main natural gas field networks, in the Gulf of Thailand, the Thailand-Malaysia Joint Development Area, and Myanmar, as well as pushing for a final investment decision for the CCS project in the Arthit field, which is Thailand's first CCS project.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank has offered up to $6 billion in financing for the Argentina LNG project, the $24 billion natural gas development led by Argentina's YPF Sociedad Anónima alongside Italy's Eni and Abu Dhabi's ADNOC. The project, expected to become the largest infrastructure project in Argentina's history, is designed to extract and monetize the country's shale gas resources and will require $24 billion to build natural gas processing facilities, pipelines and liquefaction units, with the consortium seeking financing to fund part of those costs. The partners intend to make a final investment decision in November this year, though they may proceed with only letters of intent from banks and export credit agencies to finalize lending terms. Earlier this month, YPF said it was on track to sign two to three LNG sales agreements covering a combined capacity of 500 thousand to 1.5 million metric tons per year, deals the companies aim to secure before the November final investment decision. The project is initially expected to include two floating LNG facilities with a combined capacity of 12 MTPA, with potential to increase to 18 MTPA, plus a 527-kilometre pipeline to transport natural gas from Vaca Muerta to Argentina's Atlantic coast in Rio Negro province. YPF's stock has declined 6% since the announcement.

KB Securities analyst Wooje Chun named Hanwha Solutions and DL Holdings as top solar stock picks, arguing that surging electricity prices more than offset higher module costs and interest rates. Module prices are expected to climb from $0.30-0.33 per watt to $0.38-0.437 per watt, a 32% increase, but because modules account for only 31% of costs for utility-scale systems and 11% for residential installations, the overall impact on total investment costs stays modest at 3-10%. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.42% in the second quarter of 2026 to 5.24% as of September 28, while three-year PJM power futures jumped to $89.5 per megawatt-hour on September 28, up 37% year-over-year and 20% from the second quarter of 2026, with MISO up 14% and ISO-NE up 15%. KB Securities calculates that a 14% rise in power purchase agreement prices would lift revenue by $36.1 million for a typical 100-megawatt utility-scale solar plant, while higher interest rates would add only $3.3 million in interest expense, and even a 16% increase in total investment costs would be offset by a 5.6% hike in PPA prices. Hanwha Solutions is favored for its EPC and third-party ownership businesses and its module business, which produces 80% of its output in the United States, while DL Holdings benefits from two U.S. gas-fired power plants in the PJM market totaling 2.1 gigawatts, held at 25% and 30% ownership stakes, as power purchase prices rise without matching increases in Henry Hub natural gas prices.

Petrobras' P-80 platform, also known as Búzios 9, has left the Tuas Boulevard Yard shipyard in Singapore and is heading toward the Búzios field in Brazil's pre-salt Santos Basin, the first of six giant units being developed by the company and expected to begin production in 2027. The P-80 is designed to produce up to 225,000 barrels of oil and process 12 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, placing it among the largest units of its kind in the global industry. Petrobras' director of engineering, technology and innovation, Renata Baruzzi, said the platform combines high production capacity with advanced technologies and digital solutions intended to enhance operational and energy efficiency. The P-82, next in the series and also scheduled to start production in 2027, is in the final stages of construction, and Petrobras is using a series-based construction approach across the six platforms to reduce costs and improve shipyard productivity. The P-80 process modules were manufactured in Brazil at the Seatrium BrasFELS shipyard in Angra dos Reis, while P-82 modules are being produced at the Seatrium Aracruz shipyard in Espírito Santo, with construction also taking place in China, Singapore and Indonesia. Petrobras operates Búzios in partnership with CNOOC, CNPC and Pré-Sal Petróleo SA (PPSA), and the field set monthly and daily natural gas export records in August, exceeding 10 million cubic meters per day on a monthly basis and reaching 14.1 million cubic meters per day on a daily basis.