Repsol S.A.

HSBC upgraded BP and TotalEnergies to Buy from Hold on Friday, raising earnings and cash flow estimates across its global oil coverage after lifting its Brent crude, refining margin, and gas price forecasts. Analysts led by Kim Fustier raised their 2026 Brent assumption to approximately $90 per barrel from $80, and their 2027 forecast to $85 from $65, citing a partial, gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows, while also raising the second-half 2026 TTF gas price forecast to $22.5 per million British thermal units from $16.7 and the 2027 forecast to $17 from $12. The revisions lifted HSBC's 2026-28 earnings-per-share estimates across the sector by averages of 19%, 65% and 33%, respectively, with cash flow per share estimates rising by averages of 12%, 30% and 14%, and the largest revisions falling on international majors given their combined upstream, refining and trading exposure. For BP, HSBC raised its price target to 640 pence from 570 pence, implying nearly 18% upside, and for TotalEnergies it raised its target to €93 from €80, implying 18.4% upside. HSBC retained Buy ratings on Shell, Repsol and Chevron, raising Chevron's price target to $250 from $218 and expecting it to lift its annual buyback run rate to $15 billion from $10-12 billion, while Eni, Equinor, Galp and ExxonMobil stayed at Hold and OMV remained at Reduce.

The U.S. and Venezuela have struck a deal giving the U.S. majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves, more than doubling U.S. oil reserves, President Trump announced late Friday. Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working with Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez and a partnership with private business, secured the reserves at no cost to American taxpayers. The announcement lacked details on the agreement's structure, fields, or companies involved, but Bloomberg reported the administration was pursuing a partnership between the Defense Department and energy investor Alejandro Betancourt. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves but currently produces only about 1.2 million barrels per day, far below potential due to underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions. Major oil firms operating in Venezuela include Chevron, Repsol, and Eni.

Chevron has increased its oil production in Venezuela from 40,000 barrels per day to 250,000 barrels per day over the past few years, and based solely on its three current joint ventures in the country, output has risen 12% year on year to 280,000 barrels per day over the past six months. The U.S. supermajor expects production across Venezuela to rise by 50% between now and the end of 2028, bringing the total to 420,000 barrels per day. Venezuela still holds the world's largest proven crude reserves at roughly 303 billion barrels, about 17% of the global total, and of its 14 supergiant oil fields, 11 retain more than half of their original reserves. Back in the early 2000s, Venezuela's crude production was running at over 3 million barrels per day, while July saw average crude oil production by PDVSA and its foreign partners increase by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.21 million barrels per day. Spain's Repsol is targeting a tripling of production in the next two or three years, and BP has secured an official license to explore and develop Phase 2 of the offshore Loran gas field, which contains an estimated 4 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas.

Repsol reported a sharp rise in first-half net income to €2.201 billion, driven by an €823 million inventory revaluation from higher crude oil prices and increased production. Adjusted net income reached €2.711 billion, with the Industrial business surging to €1.683 billion from €235 million a year earlier, while Upstream adjusted net income rose 6.7 percent to €673 million. The board approved a second share buyback of up to €500 million and expects to announce a third in October, alongside a €0.53 per share cash dividend payable in January 2027. Total production hit 558,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter, the highest in two years, and the company targets 560,000 to 570,000 boe/d for 2026.

Chevron confirmed its operations in Venezuela remain unaffected after two powerful earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 in magnitude. All employees are safe and accounted for, and the company's three onshore heavy crude projects continue normal operations. Key oil infrastructure, including the Paraguaná refining complex and the José export terminal, also maintained regular activities. Other international operators such as Eni and Repsol reported their Venezuelan assets remain operational, with Eni continuing natural gas supply for about half of the country's gas-fired power generation. Chevron, which contributes roughly a quarter of Venezuela's total crude output, reaffirmed its commitment to employee safety and community support during the recovery.

Santos has begun continuous production at the Pikka phase one oil project on Alaska's North Slope, with initial wells now delivering approximately 20,000 barrels per day. The Australian energy company plans to start pressure support through seawater injection in the coming weeks and will progressively bring more wells online, targeting plateau production of about 80,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026. Pikka phase one is expected to produce around 400 million barrels of gross proved plus probable reserves, with an additional 600 million barrels of gross contingent resource potentially supporting further staged development. Santos holds a 51 percent operating stake in the project, while Repsol owns the remaining 49 percent, following a final investment decision on the 2.6 billion dollar project in August 2022.

Venezuela’s oil production reached 1.179 million barrels per day in May 2026, its highest monthly level in years, following sweeping industry reforms that reversed the 2007 nationalization laws. The new legislation, approved by the National Assembly in late January 2026, ended state-owned PDVSA’s monopoly, granted foreign companies control over operations, and reduced royalties and taxes. ExxonMobil, whose CEO had earlier called Venezuela uninvestable, is now in talks to acquire rights to up to six oilfields, while Chevron expanded its stake in the Petroindependencia joint venture to 49% and secured development rights for the Ayacucho 8 block in the Orinoco Belt. Repsol and Eni are also expanding operations, with Repsol incorporating the Horcon oilfield and Eni holding interests in the Junin-5 heavy oil block and the Perla gas field. Rebuilding the country’s deteriorated infrastructure is estimated to cost at least $100 billion over a decade, but production is forecast to reach 1.5 million barrels per day in 2027.

Repsol has signed a memorandum of understanding with Venezuela's Ministry of Hydrocarbons and state-owned PDVSA to assess development of the Horcón area southeast of Lake Maracaibo, expanding its upstream footprint. The agreement, signed in Caracas, also covers offshore gas studies and builds on earlier 2026 deals including a Cardón IV gas pact with Eni and regained operational control at the Petroquiriquire joint venture, where PDVSA holds 60% and Repsol 40%. Company officials estimate Petroquiriquire output could rise by about 20,000 barrels per day from roughly 40,000 to 60,000 barrels per day, contributing to Repsol's current Venezuelan production of about 45,000 barrels per day, which could increase by as much as 50% within a year and potentially triple over three years. The moves are facilitated by a U.S. Treasury Department license allowing oil and gas transactions with Venezuelan entities.