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Energy Transition & Power Demand

HSBC Upgrades BP and TotalEnergies to Buy, Lifts Oil Sector Targets

HSBC upgraded BP and TotalEnergies to Buy from Hold on Friday, raising earnings and cash flow estimates across its global oil coverage after lifting its Brent crude, refining margin, and gas price forecasts. Analysts led by Kim Fustier raised their 2026 Brent assumption to approximately $90 per barrel from $80, and their 2027 forecast to $85 from $65, citing a partial, gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows, while also raising the second-half 2026 TTF gas price forecast to $22.5 per million British thermal units from $16.7 and the 2027 forecast to $17 from $12. The revisions lifted HSBC's 2026-28 earnings-per-share estimates across the sector by averages of 19%, 65% and 33%, respectively, with cash flow per share estimates rising by averages of 12%, 30% and 14%, and the largest revisions falling on international majors given their combined upstream, refining and trading exposure. For BP, HSBC raised its price target to 640 pence from 570 pence, implying nearly 18% upside, and for TotalEnergies it raised its target to €93 from €80, implying 18.4% upside. HSBC retained Buy ratings on Shell, Repsol and Chevron, raising Chevron's price target to $250 from $218 and expecting it to lift its annual buyback run rate to $15 billion from $10-12 billion, while Eni, Equinor, Galp and ExxonMobil stayed at Hold and OMV remained at Reduce.

BP.LSE ▲TTE.PA ▲CVX ▲REP.XETRA ▲SHEL.LSE ▲ENI.XETRA +4

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Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Pricing

BP.LSE · Capital · Positive HSBC upgraded BP to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to 640 pence from 570 pence.

TTE.PA · Capital · Positive HSBC upgraded TotalEnergies to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to €93 from €80, implying 18.4% upside, on higher Brent, refining margin and gas price forecasts.

CVX · Capital · Positive HSBC retained Buy on Chevron and raised its price target to $250 from $218, expecting buyback run rate to rise to $15B.

REP.XETRA · Capital · Positive HSBC retained its Buy rating on Repsol while raising earnings and cash flow estimates across its global oil coverage on higher Brent, refining margin and gas forecasts.

SHEL.LSE · Capital · Positive HSBC retained its Buy rating on Shell amid raised sector earnings and cash flow estimates.

ENI.XETRA · Capital · Neutral HSBC kept Eni at Hold, not upgraded, though sector-wide earnings and cash flow estimates were raised on higher Brent, refining margin and gas forecasts.

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Romania

Germany

Synthetic Biology (non-pharma)▲

OMV Petrom Expands Green Hydrogen Capacity to 55 MW

OMV Petrom has expanded its planned green hydrogen production capacity at Romania's Petrobrazi refinery to 55 megawatts following the delivery of a second 35-MW electrolyzer. The new system, consisting of seven 5-MW electrolysis modules supplied by Germany's Neuman & Esser, will combine with a previously delivered 20-MW electrolyzer to produce around 8,000 tonnes of green hydrogen annually using renewable electricity. The hydrogen will primarily support OMV Petrom's new sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) plant, currently under construction at Petrobrazi. The 35-MW electrolyzer alone is expected to produce around 4,700 tonnes of hydrogen annually and has received approximately €29 million in financing through Romania's National Recovery and Resilience Plan. These hydrogen projects are part of a broader €750 million investment in sustainable fuels at Petrobrazi, which includes €560 million for the SAF/HVO plant and €190 million for the two green hydrogen facilities. The new plant will have capacity to produce 250,000 tonnes of sustainable fuels annually, with production scheduled to begin in 2028. OMV Petrom has already secured buyers for part of that output, including a five-year agreement with parent company OMV covering up to 360,000 tonnes of SAF and HVO beginning in 2028, with an estimated value exceeding €800 million at recent market prices. More than 80% of the plant's feedstock requirements for its first eight years have also been secured. Petrobrazi currently supplies roughly 35% of Romania's fuel demand and has an annual refining capacity of 4.5 million tonnes.

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Synthetic Biology (non-pharma) ▲Energy Transition & Power Demand ▲

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Synthetic Biology (non-pharma) › Sustainable Aviation Fuel & Bio-Fuels ▲Supply

Energy Transition & Power Demand › Hydrogen & Fuel Cells ▲Supply

OMV Petrom · Capital · Positive OMV Petrom expanded green hydrogen capacity to 55 MW as part of a €750M sustainable-fuels investment at Petrobrazi.

Neuman & Esser · Demand · Positive Neuman & Esser supplied the second 35-MW electrolyzer (seven 5-MW modules) for OMV Petrom's green hydrogen project.

OMV.XETRA · Demand · Positive Parent OMV signed a five-year agreement worth over €800M to buy up to 360,000 tonnes of SAF/HVO from OMV Petrom's new plant.

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Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation▼impact 4

Global oil stocks tumble as crude prices retreat after U.S. halts Iran strikes

Shares in oil and gas producers across the U.S. and Europe fell sharply after the U.S. military halted two weeks of strikes on Iran, with Tehran signaling it would suspend its own attacks as long as the pause holds, easing fears of a broader Middle East escalation and dragging crude prices lower. In the U.S., Chevron and Exxon Mobil dropped about 2.5% each, ConocoPhillips slid 3.1%, Devon Energy fell 3%, Occidental Petroleum shed 3.7%, and Diamondback Energy lost 2.7%, while oilfield services companies SLB and Halliburton slipped 1.3% and 1.8% respectively. European names saw steeper declines, with the region's oil and gas index down about 2%, as BP fell 3.6%, Equinor lost 5.4%, Var Energi, Eni, and Maurel & Prom dropped more than 4% each, and TotalEnergies and OMV were down around 3% each. Brent crude futures tumbled 6.7% to $90.24 a barrel following the announcements. The pause came as diplomats sought to give peace talks space after a China-led push to revive stalled negotiations in Pakistan, though analysts cautioned that the path to a lasting peace remains uncertain with contentious issues including Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed under a U.S. blockade.

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Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Missiles, Munitions & Energetics ▼Geopolitics

TTE.PA · Geopolitics · Negative U.S. halts strikes on Iran, easing geopolitical risk and dragging crude prices lower, hurting TotalEnergies' revenue outlook.

0AAY.LSE · Geopolitics · Negative Var Energi dropped more than 4% as European oil stocks fell on easing Middle East tensions and lower crude.

0SCL.LSE · Geopolitics · Negative Oilfield services demand falls as crude price retreats on eased Middle East tensions.

BP.LSE · Geopolitics · Negative BP shares fell 3.6% as crude prices tumbled on U.S. halting Iran strikes.

COP · Geopolitics · Negative U.S. halts Iran strikes, easing Middle East tensions and dragging crude prices lower, hurting ConocoPhillips.

CVX · Geopolitics · Negative U.S. halts Iran strikes, easing Middle East tensions and dragging crude prices lower, hurting Chevron.

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