Copper Futures

Rio2 Limited launched a two-phase surface drilling and district-scale exploration program at its Condestable Copper Mine in Peru while suspending drilling at the Fenix Gold Mine in Chile, according to a September 2026 company-wide exploration update. The Condestable campaign covers 33,870 metres across two phases and is designed to better understand and potentially convert both breccia-hosted and vein-hosted copper-gold-silver mineralization based on a refined geological model. The program sits on top of the August 2026 approval of the MEIA modification for Condestable, which supports expansion to 10,000 tonnes per day and dry stack tailings. Rio2 said the Fenix suspension stemmed from adverse weather, safety concerns and contractor standby costs, leaving extreme weather as the key near-term operational risk. The company's narrative projects $691.3 million in revenue and $250.6 million in earnings by 2029, requiring 59.3% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $192 million earnings increase from $58.2 million today.

Impulsa Mendoza has awarded Public Tender No. 2/2026 to Cerro Quebrado S.A., a BHP Group company, granting it an exploration contract with a purchase option for the El Seguro copper project in Argentina's Malargüe Western Mining District. The award gives BHP a second route into the district alongside its alliance with Kobrea Exploration, deepening its copper exploration exposure in a single emerging Andean jurisdiction. The contract sits alongside BHP's recent production and guidance updates, in which copper output in FY2026 fell 3% year on year to 1,952.8 kt and 2027 copper guidance was set below 2026 levels. BHP's narrative projects $56.1 billion in revenue and $13.3 billion in earnings by 2029, with a fair value of A$61.02, while some of the lowest ranked analysts assumed revenue would fall to about US$52.5 billion by 2029 even as earnings rose to roughly US$11.7 billion.

Copper futures in New York closed higher on Wednesday, September 30, amid concerns over tight supply. The December COMEX copper contract rose 1.80 cents, or 0.27%, to settle at $6.6215 per pound. The market drew support after Chile's national statistics agency reported that Chilean copper output in August fell 12.8% year on year to 369,500 metric tons, the lowest monthly output level since February 2011, following a 9.4% decline the previous month. The drop was attributed to unusually cold winter weather and disruptions to port logistics. Meanwhile, a union of 1,020 supervisory workers at the Escondida mine, operated by BHP in Chile and the world's largest copper mine, voted overwhelmingly, by 95%, to reject the company's final collective labor contract offer, paving the way for a possible strike. Under Chilean labor law, both sides must enter a mandatory government-mediated conciliation process lasting five working days, which can be extended by another five days before the union can legally strike. However, copper's gains were partly capped after a Panamanian government commission recommended opening negotiations with First Quantum Minerals to set the terms for restarting the Cobre Panama mine, in order to generate cash flow to support the budget for a gradual, orderly long-term closure of the mine.

Southern Copper Corporation is in discussions with the administration to advance its $10.2 billion in investments in Mexico, a pipeline the company expects to drive organic growth in the coming years. The company's Mexican copper circuit, which includes the Angangueo and Chalchihuites mines along with the Empalme Smelter, is expected to position it as a fully integrated copper producer. Southern Copper expects construction to begin in the first quarter of 2027 at its new El Pilar copper project in Sonora, with production slated to start in the second half of 2029; El Pilar's copper oxide mineralization holds estimated proven and probable reserves of 317 million tons of ore, an expected 18-year mine life, and projected output of 36,000 tons of copper cathode in 2029. The El Arco mine in Baja California, described as a world-class copper deposit with more than 1,230 million tons in sulfide ore reserves and 141 million tons of leach material, is expected to produce 190,000 ounces of copper in 2030. Southern Copper expects total production to reach 1.056 million tons in 2029 and targets 1.6 million tons by 2035, with Tía María, Los Chancas and Michiquillay in Peru, along with El Pilar, El Arco and other Mexican projects, aiding output in the coming years.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on Freeport-McMoRan on September 10, calling the copper miner's recent selloff overdone after Reuters indicated the White House had yet to decide whether to impose refined copper tariffs. Copper reached $14,745 per ton on September 22 as Shanghai inventories fell to 43,900 tons, their lowest level since 2023, and management estimates every $0.10 per pound change in copper prices could affect annual EBITDA by roughly $390 million in 2027 and 2028. Freeport expects second-half 2026 copper sales to exceed the first half by more than 20%, followed by another increase of more than 20% in 2027, while targeting 300 million pounds of annualized copper production from its leach initiative by year-end. On the cost side, the company's $2.50-per-pound U.S. cost target for 2027 is currently unattainable with U.S. costs closer to $3.00, and the preliminary cost of the Bagdad expansion has risen to about $4.5 billion, roughly 30% above its 2023 estimate, with 2027 capital spending expected at about $4.8 billion. Hedge fund ownership rose from 82 to 92 holders in the second quarter, and short interest climbed to 30.69 million shares as of August 31 from 27.79 million a month earlier, representing 2.15% of the float.

COMEX copper futures for December delivery closed up 7.35 cents, or 1.09%, at 6.8360 dollars per pound on Tuesday, September 22, marking a sixth straight session of gains, supported by tight supply conditions. Analysts at Sprott Asset Management said global copper mine output could decline this year, the first drop since 2017, as a result of supply stagnation, lower copper ore grades, and reduced output from Chile. Meanwhile, investors are watching US plans to levy tariffs on copper imports, with the US Department of Commerce proposing a 15% tariff starting in January 2027 and an increase to 30% from 2028, still awaiting a decision from President Donald Trump.

Citi has reaffirmed its bullish stance on copper, holding its three-month price target at $15,000 a tonne. In its September outlook, the bank said the balance of risks was skewed to the upside despite the threat of US tariffs hanging over the market, and it pointed to a mix of structural, cyclical and strategic tailwinds it expects to support prices into 2027. Citi acknowledged that copper looks exposed in the near term, with heavy positioning by investment funds leaving the metal vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if bearish news on American copper tariffs emerges, though it argued any such setback would prove temporary. On tariffs, the bank said it does not expect the US to impose a levy on imported copper cathode, the refined form traded on global exchanges, and cautioned that official clarity was unlikely before the American mid-term elections, and possibly not even then. Citi framed any near-term wobble on tariff doubts as a buying opportunity rather than a turn in the wider trend.

Copper has reached a fresh nominal record, according to National Bank of Canada's Kyle Dahms. Dahms attributes the rally to AI-related data-centre demand, electricity grid expansion, tariff-driven stockpiling and supply disruptions. The record price comes amid what he describes as real constraints on the market.

Nanthapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, disclosed that the construction material price index in August 2026 stood at 113.1, up 6.1 percent compared with August 2025, continuing to expand on the back of still-tense geopolitical conflicts that have kept oil and energy prices volatile at high levels and affected production and logistics chains, pushing the price index higher in almost every category. The category posting the largest increase was other construction materials, up 15.7 percent on asphalt and natural material prices, followed by electrical and plumbing equipment, up 12.7 percent on world copper prices that continued to rise amid demand from infrastructure, the clean energy industry, and advanced technology. Concrete products rose 9.6 percent, wood and wood products rose 4.5 percent, tiles rose 4.0 percent, sanitary ware rose 3.7 percent, and surface coating materials rose 1.7 percent. Categories whose prices declined were steel and steel products, down 0.6 percent on excess steel supply from China, and cement, down 0.2 percent on intense market competition. Nanthapong added that the construction material price index in September 2026 is expected to continue expanding, with prices of wires and electrical equipment likely to rise on copper prices amid tight supply after copper mines in Chile and Peru were affected by natural disasters, together with rising copper demand for infrastructure construction and data center construction to support the continuous expansion of artificial intelligence technology. At the same time, demand for construction materials to repair roads, buildings, and housing after disasters is another factor supporting the index's continued expansion.

COMEX copper futures for December delivery closed up 6.50 cents, or 0.95%, at 6.8885 dollars per pound, driven by concerns over tight global supply and uncertainty over US import tariffs on copper. Copper prices have risen since the start of the year on supply problems, after global copper mine output fell 1.1% in the first half of the year as production was disrupted in Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Morgan Stanley estimates that mine output for the full year may be flat or lower, which would be the first decline since 2017, running counter to structural demand that continues to expand. On tariff policy, traders have been rushing copper shipments into the United States for several months to avoid the impact before the US may begin collecting a 15% import tariff on refined copper from January 2027, with a possible increase to 30% in 2028, even though the US government has neither confirmed nor scrapped the plan, and the Commerce Department's study is already more than two months past its due date. The COMEX premium of about 3% over the London market continues to encourage copper flows into the United States, pushing US refined copper imports in July to a record high of 225,094 tonnes. Copper prices have surged even as China, the world's largest copper consumer, sees its economy slow, particularly amid a still-depressed property crisis, causing China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in August to fall to 382,000 tonnes, the lowest level for August in six years.

Talon Metals Corp. announced assay results from a record 46.43-meter intercept of massive sulphide mineralization at its Tamarack Nickel-Copper-Cobalt Project in Minnesota, grading 13.37% Ni, 16.54% Cu, 0.10% Co, 7.85 g/t Pd, 14.49 g/t Pt, and 8.56 g/t Au, equivalent to 27.39% NiEq or 54.78% CuEq. The intercept, in drill hole 25TK0562A, is the longest combined Massive Sulphide Unit and Mixed Massive Sulphide Unit interval reported to date at the project, and includes a higher-grade 26.22-meter section grading 14.95% Ni and 17.85% Cu. The hole was drilled about 50 meters southwest of the Vault Zone discovery hole 25TK0563, targeting a borehole electromagnetic anomaly, and extends known mineralization on the 778-meter level. Talon's CEO Darby Stacey highlighted the step-out distance and the project's potential as a future domestic source of critical minerals, while Chief Exploration Officer Brian Goldner noted the significance of having nickel, copper, cobalt, platinum, palladium, and gold concentrated in the same rock. The company also reported a 4.60-meter interval of disseminated chalcocite below the main intercept with significant platinum group element mineralization, and plans additional sampling to test its continuity.

Copper has surged to fresh records on the London Metal Exchange, with three-month futures nearing $14,800 per tonne, as traders position for potential US tariffs on refined copper imports, according to ING's commodities team.

Canada's C$27.6 billion retaliation against U.S. imports took effect on Tuesday, putting the Canadian dollar and North American supply chains under fresh pressure as investors assessed the risk of a widening trade war. The tariffs, covering more than 700 U.S. products, add uncertainty for manufacturers and consumers while keeping the loonie vulnerable. USD/CAD jumped 0.27% to 1.3876, the loonie's weakest since August 19, and futures traders priced in higher odds of a Fed rate hike. Copper prices hit an all-time high, with LME copper futures at $14,694 per ton, and Freeport-McMoRan stock rose 7.4%. Canada's Ivey PMI jumped to 64.3, but employment fell by 41.7K jobs and unemployment stayed at 6.4%, while U.S. core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.3%.

Global markets were rattled as the yen surged to its strongest level since February, driven by expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike next week, while the Nikkei fell nearly 2%. Japan's upgraded second-quarter GDP and the biggest yearly rise in real wages in five years bolstered the case for a BOJ move, with some speculation of a larger-than-usual increase. The yen's strength, alongside the yuan and won, raised concerns about unwinding carry trades, but the global growth picture remains robust, with euro zone GDP revised higher and strong U.S. employment. Oil prices climbed toward $100 per barrel after Iran pledged "economic warfare" and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities, while copper hit an all-time high. China's exports rose 25% year-on-year in August, lifting its trade surplus to $119 billion, and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect, intensifying the trade war.

The metal value of Japan's 10-yen coin is finally set to exceed 10 yen in 2026. The 10-yen coin is made of bronze, consisting of 95% copper, 3-4% zinc, and 1-2% tin. According to the author's calculations, the metal value per coin has already reached the mid-10-yen range at present. This is due to a combination of increased demand from the AI and EV boom, supply concerns in resource-rich countries, and the depreciation of the yen. However, damaging or melting down coins is prohibited by the Act on Punishment of Damaging Coins, so this value is theoretical. As long as the 'simultaneous expansion of light and shadow' continues, metal prices are likely to remain high.

BHP Group is partnering with US-based SiTration on pilot copper projects in Arizona that extract copper from legacy mining water using SiTration's advanced valorization technology, rather than processing new ore. The collaboration aims to support more sustainable copper production in response to demand from electrification and digital infrastructure. Bench-scale work has already produced LME Grade A copper, and the larger Arizona pilot is targeting about two tonnes of cathode over two months. The key question is scalability, with investors watching for BHP to confirm commercial-scale rollout plans after reviewing pilot results over the next year. BHP, a large A$324.2b resources company, sees copper as a key growth driver alongside iron ore and potash.

ANZ Bank forecasts that copper prices could surge to a record high in early next year, as concerns over U.S. import tariffs attract metal into the country, tightening the global market, while demand from electric vehicles and new energy remains strong. Copper on the London Metal Exchange is trading near $14,245 per ton, and ANZ expects prices to rise to around $14,500 per ton by the end of 2026 before hitting $15,000 per ton in early 2027, which would be a new record. ANZ analysts noted that increased copper imports into the U.S. due to tariff expectations have pushed U.S. stockpiles to record highs, while LME warehouse inventories have declined, tightening markets outside the U.S. Production issues at South American mines and strong demand from EVs and new energy provide additional support.

The Mount Lyell copper mine in the Australian state of Tasmania is set to resume operations after a 15-year hiatus. South African mining company Sibanye Stillwater has approved the project and plans to commence operations in the first half of 2027, with a total capital investment of approximately 490 million Australian dollars, or around 350 million US dollars. Production is expected to begin from 2029 onwards. The Tasmanian government has welcomed the decision, with Felix Ellis, the state's Minister for Business, Industry and Resources, stating that the reopening will create up to 300 jobs and bring new investment and long-term economic confidence. The mine has been in operation since the 1890s and was closed in 2014 following the deaths of three workers in two separate incidents.

Southern Copper Corporation intends to invest $20.5 billion over the next decade to support its long-term growth, with a significant portion allocated to projects in Peru and Mexico. The company reaffirmed its commitment to collaborating with Peru's government, advancing the Tía María, Los Chancas, and Michiquillay projects, which together represent a total investment of $10.3 billion. Tía María, with a $1.8 billion investment, is designed to produce 120,000 tons of copper cathodes annually and was 42% complete as of June 30, 2026, targeting start-up in the second half of 2027. Los Chancas, requiring $2.6 billion, is expected to produce 130,000 tons of copper and 7,500 tons of molybdenum annually from 2031, while Michiquillay, with a $2.5 billion investment, aims for 225,000 tons of copper annually from 2032. In Mexico, the El Pilar project is moving toward early site work in September 2026 and construction in the first quarter of 2027, with production targeted for the second half of 2029, designed for 36,000 tons of annual copper cathode output. These projects provide multiple sources of organic growth, supporting Southern Copper's production target of 1.6 million tons by 2033 or 2034.

Sumitomo Corporation announced on the 28th that it will participate in the "Dos Amigos" copper-gold mine project in the Atacama region of northern Chile. Through a special purpose company established jointly with Canadian mining developer G Mining Group, it will subscribe to approximately 48 million Canadian dollars (about 5.5 billion yen) of a third-party allotment of shares in the project operating company, resulting in an effective equity interest of approximately 12.5%. The project is expected to produce approximately 37,000 tonnes of copper and 57,000 ounces of gold annually, with an expected mine life of about 25 years. Sumitomo Corporation positions copper as a key strategic area and has built a strategic partnership with G Mining Group.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at a record high on Tuesday and continued to rise on Wednesday amid tight supply, with prices up about 16% since the start of the year. This is due to traders shipping large amounts of copper to the United States, reducing stocks in other markets, while global mines are not producing enough to meet demand. Most recently, copper prices rose 0.5% to $14,415.50 per ton, near the all-time high of $14,527.50 per ton set in January. Although the spread between spot and futures copper has narrowed from over $500 per ton, it remains at about $156 per ton, indicating that supply pressures have not yet subsided.

COMEX copper futures for December delivery closed up 10.85 cents, or 1.62%, at $6.8155 per pound on Tuesday (Aug. 25), amid concerns that the U.S. may impose import tariffs on copper, prompting traders to rush shipments into the U.S. and drawing supply away from other markets, tightening stocks outside the U.S. Meanwhile, withdrawal orders from LME warehouses added to global supply worries. The U.S. is considering tariffs on copper imports, with Trump to decide after receiving a report from the Commerce Department. If imposed, the tariff would start at 15% in 2027 and rise to 30% in 2028.

Copper prices are rising again as the International Copper Study Group reports a significant June deficit and a sharply reduced year-to-date surplus. Commerzbank's Barbara Lambrecht notes the supply setbacks have pushed the market into deficit. The data indicate a tightening in global copper balances.

The Export-Import Bank of the US has issued a preliminary project letter outlining possible debt financing of $1.1 billion to advance Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz Copper Project in Arizona. The letter increases the proposed financing from the $825 million outlined in US EXIM's previous letter of interest issued in April 2025. Ivanhoe Electric submitted its application through US EXIM's Make More in America Initiative, and the preliminary project letter is not a commitment to finance, with any funding subject to further review and final approval. The company expects US EXIM's board to consider the financing application in the spring of 2027, and an updated preliminary feasibility study for the project is expected in September 2026. Ivanhoe Electric executive chairman Robert Friedland said the company is building a modern American copper mine capable of producing 99.99% pure copper metal without a smelting process.

Societe Generale's Commodity Compass Analytics team, led by Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, argues that copper has been increasingly driven by AI-related demand, arbitrage flows and US trade policy since February 2025.

New York copper futures closed higher on Friday, August 21, supported by a weaker dollar and tight supply prospects. COMEX copper for September delivery rose 11.80 cents, or 1.82%, to settle at 6.5870 dollars per pound. The dollar index fell to 98.801 amid concerns that the U.S. Treasury's long-term bond buyback plan could pressure the dollar. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, expects output to fall 2.6% this year, while the Las Bambas mine in Peru operated by MMG suspended operations after an accident killed two workers, and Canada's Lundin Mining Corp cut its production target at the Caserones mine in Chile by 10,000 metric tons due to storms.

Poland has announced a new economic strategy called Poland Economy 2.0 to move up from a cheap-labour base to a high-value-added economy, after GDP surpassed 1 trillion dollars and the country was invited to join the G20 summit later this year. The government wants to attract foreign direct investment in advanced technology industries including AI, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and critical metals such as copper. A key project reflecting this strategy is the plan by Lumina Metals, a Canadian metals company, to invest 6.4 billion dollars to develop a copper and silver mine in the town of Nowa Sól, which could become the largest FDI project in Poland's history and is expected to create 6,000 direct jobs in a town of only 36,000 people. Meanwhile, a Taiwanese company is considering developing a Technology Park on the site where Intel had planned to build a 4.6 billion dollar semiconductor plant before cancelling the project, and the new project could be worth as much as 20 billion dollars. Foxconn, the major Taiwanese electronics manufacturer, plans to produce electric vehicles in the southern Polish city of Jaworzno under a preliminary agreement under which Poland would receive knowledge and technology transfer. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said the quality of investment matters more than its value, and a senior adviser at the Polish Economic Institute called this type of investment Poland 2.0 Investment, which would help the country escape its role as an assembly-plant base and build its own technological capabilities. However, Lumina's mining project still needs a mining licence, which could take about five years, and the company wants the government to cut copper taxes to make the project economically viable, while the Polish government is facing a record budget deficit.

BHP and SiTration, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology spin-out, are planning two pilot programmes of copper recovery technology at BHP's site in the Globe-Miami district of Arizona. The initial phase will be a small-scale trial running over one month, followed later this year by a larger deployment expected to produce up to two tonnes of commercial-scale copper cathodes over two months. The companies aim to extract copper from legacy mining water at the historic Copper Cities site, which produced nearly 400,000 tonnes of copper between the 1950s and early 1980s. SiTration has already conducted bench-scale tests on feedstock from Copper Cities that reportedly produced LME Grade A copper without chemicals, without new waste products, and with energy consumption below 3–4 kilowatt-hours per kilogram. Both companies have signed an agreement to collaborate on the pilot programme and evaluate future opportunities if results are positive.

The copper supply tightness continues to solidify, with LME inventories falling for 42 consecutive trading days and spot premiums breaking above 400 dollars per tonne. On the supply side, the export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chile's output hitting a near 20-year low for the same period, global miners collectively lowering production guidance, and a consensus on production cuts amid deeply negative domestic treatment and refining charges are all reinforcing the global supply squeeze. On the inventory side, deliverable supply outside the United States remains tight. The market expects the global refined copper supply deficit could reach 420,000 tonnes in 2026. Long mine expansion cycles and high capital investment, combined with sustained electrification demand, mean supply response is slower than demand growth, pushing the copper price center higher. On August 19, China's A-share major indices fell across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45 percent, the Shenzhen Component Index down 4.88 percent, and the ChiNext Index down 6.09 percent. The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index, tracked by the ChinaAMC Nonferrous Metals ETF with code 516650, fell 3.16 percent.

Copper prices on the LME are close to record highs, with an unusually large cash–3-month spread driven by falling LME stocks and tariff-related pre-emptive buying in the US, according to Commerzbank's Barbara Lambrecht.