Gold futures trade on COMEX/CME and are denominated in USD. They serve as the primary global benchmark for gold prices. The asset is also considered a core safe-haven and monetary-hedge instrument.
Gold's worst quarter since 2013 as Fed hikes, dollar strength, and ETF outflows crush prices
▼
Hawkish Fed and strong dollar The Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh signaled more interest rate hikes, pushing the US dollar to 13-month highs. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, pressuring prices.
This is the primary driver of gold's decline, directly linking Fed policy and dollar strength to lower gold prices.
▼
Fading safe-haven demand and bank forecast cuts Easing US-Iran tensions reduced gold's appeal as a safe investment. Major banks slashed price forecasts, with Deutsche Bank warning gold could fall to $3,800, further dampening sentiment.
This explains a key demand-side factor and negative market sentiment that contributed to the sell-off.
▼
Massive ETF outflows Gold-backed ETFs saw $12 billion in outflows since February, the largest four-month exit since 2013. This selling pressure from investors exiting funds weighed heavily on prices.
This highlights a major capital flow out of gold investments, directly impacting its price.
▲
Central bank buying and weak jobs report Central banks are repatriating and expanding gold reserves, with 30% planning to buy more, providing structural support. A weak June jobs report sparked a 1.3% rebound to $4,135 as rate-hike bets cooled.
This shows the main counterweight to the decline, offering a fair picture of both negative and positive forces.
Latest
▲2▼2
Gold falls below $4,200 as Fed rate-hike fears and oil-driven inflation dominate
▼
Fed rate-hike fears and surging bond yields crush gold The Fed raised rates on September 16 and officials signaled more may come. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%, hitting a 19-year high, and the dollar climbed above 101. Higher rates make no-interest gold less attractive, pushing prices down to a seven-week low near $4,100.
This is the dominant force driving gold lower this period, directly linking Fed policy to the price drop.
▼
Oil spike from US-Iran conflict fuels inflation, forcing Fed's hand Brent crude surged above $100 after the US rejected Iran's proposal and tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices stoke inflation fears, which raise the odds of more Fed rate hikes. That strengthens the dollar and bond yields, dragging gold down through the energy-inflation channel.
It explains the key transmission mechanism—oil to inflation to Fed to gold—that has pressured gold all period.
▲
Central banks and investors keep buying, putting a floor under gold China extended its gold-buying streak to 22 months, Norway moved 86 tons of reserves to London, and gold ETFs saw record inflows. Thailand's gold imports jumped 53% to 900 billion baht. This steady official and investor demand supports prices even as rate fears cause sharp drops.
It is the main counterweight preventing a deeper fall and supports gold over the long run.
▲
Gold rebounds as Fed rate-hike odds fall on weak data and Williams' remarks Gold jumped $60 to $4,182 after New York Fed President Williams said the Fed need not rush to raise rates. Weaker US economic data and oil falling below $100 cut October rate-hike odds to about 50% from 70%. Lower rate expectations ease pressure on gold, though the rebound may be limited.
It shows the latest shift in sentiment that could signal a bottom, though the broader downtrend remains.
Q3 2026
▲3▼1
Gold swings on Middle East, Fed hikes, central-bank buying
▲
Middle East safe-haven demand US-Iran escalation and the Strait of Hormuz closure drove safe-haven buying, pushing gold near $4,160. This was a new geopolitical shock that boosted demand for gold as a protective asset.
It explains a key new force that lifted gold prices during the quarter.
▲
Record central-bank buying and weak US data Record central-bank purchases, led by China, plus weak US economic data helped gold surge 15% to above $4,650. This continued a known trend but intensified, providing strong support.
It highlights a major new surge in gold driven by official-sector demand and soft data.
▼
Fed rate hikes and strong dollar The Fed's first rate hike since 2023 pushed Treasury yields above 5% and strengthened the dollar, pressuring gold to an eight-month low near $4,000 and later a seven-week low around $4,100.
It captures the main new negative force that repeatedly pushed gold down.
▲
Record ETF inflows and late rebound Record ETF inflows and continued central-bank purchases provided support, and gold rebounded late as rate-hike odds fell. This reversed the prior quarter's massive outflows.
It shows a new positive shift in investment demand that helped gold recover.
News & notes movingGOLD.COMM
Colombia
Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲
Aris Mining Completes Environmental Assessment for Soto Norte Project
Aris Mining has cleared a key permitting hurdle for its Soto Norte gold copper project in Colombia by completing its Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and beginning formal community engagement ahead of an environmental licence application. The milestone follows earlier approvals on the mine plan and clarifications to Colombian regulatory protections. The company's shares have returned 15.19% year to date and posted a very large 3 year total shareholder return, though the 30 day share price return has eased 8.37%. Analysts see a narrative fair value of CA$41.53 against a last close of CA$24.95, with the gap linked to project build out and operating scale. The ongoing expansion at the Segovia operations, with the new second ball mill increasing processing capacity by 50% and a targeted production ramp up to 300,000 ounces in 2026, is described as a driver of sustained revenue growth and structurally higher operating margins.
ARIS · Regulation · Positive Aris Mining completed the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and began community engagement, clearing a key permitting hurdle for the Soto Norte gold-copper project.
GOLD · Supply · Positive Progress toward permitting and build-out of Aris Mining's Soto Norte gold-copper project signals potential future gold supply from the mine.
Gold Plunges 500 Baht as Rising US Bond Yields Pressure Prices
Domestic gold prices opened on October 3, 2026, down 500 baht per baht-weight of gold from yesterday's closing price, according to the Gold Traders Association. Ornamental gold is selling at 66,700.00 baht per baht-weight and buying at 64,384.52 baht per baht-weight, while gold bars are selling at 65,900.00 baht per baht-weight and buying at 65,700.00 baht per baht-weight. Gold Spot stood at 4,140.00 dollars per ounce. In overseas markets, spot gold traded at 4,138 dollars per ounce, down nearly 1% after earlier touching a high of 4,227 dollars. Although US September non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000, below analysts' forecast of 90,000, and the unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.2%, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.9%, up 4 basis points, continued to weigh on gold prices. Money markets expect the Fed to hold interest rates at its October 28 meeting with a probability of nearly 77%, and have raised the odds of a rate hike at the December meeting to 88%. Technical analysts note that key support for gold lies at 4,100 dollars per ounce; a break below that level could see prices test the July 29 low around 3,996 dollars and the July 17 low around 3,959 dollars.
New York Gold Closes Down $40 as Bond Yields Surge and Dollar Strengthens
Gold futures on the New York market closed lower on Friday, October 2, with COMEX December-delivery gold falling $40.00, or 0.95%, to settle at $4,162.30 an ounce, pressured by the dollar's appreciation this week and by 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields, which surged on Thursday to their highest levels since 2002. Early in the session, gold prices had risen more than 1% on news of a sharp slowdown in U.S. employment figures, after the U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 economists had expected, while the August figure was revised down to an increase of 133,000 from the previously reported 162,000. Analysts assess that gold's direction over the coming months will depend on the stance of the U.S. central bank and how much weakness in the labor market it is willing to accept, while the Fed continues to give priority to controlling inflation. Since the war between the United States, Israel and Iran began in late February, gold prices have fallen by more than 20%, as investors worry that war-driven inflation will force the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. However, the latest inflation data came in below expectations, and the stance of at least two senior Fed officials who voted against a rate hike in October has led investors to begin expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at its meeting late this month, consistent with data from the CME FedWatch Tool showing that investors now assign only a 22% probability to a Fed rate hike this month, down sharply from 70% early in the week.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold fell $40 as the dollar strengthened and Treasury yields surged, with war-driven inflation fears keeping the Fed hawkish.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive 10-year Treasury yields surged to their highest since 2002, pushing the 10Y yield up.
US-30Y.GB · Monetary · Positive 30-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels since 2002, lifting the 30Y yield.
Freeport Reports Q3 2026 Copper Production of 830 Million Pounds, In Line With Expectations
Freeport reported third-quarter 2026 consolidated copper production of approximately 830 million pounds, in line with expectations, with slightly better international results offsetting slightly lower U.S. output. Consolidated gold production of approximately 230 thousand ounces also approximated expectations, but timing changes at PT Freeport Indonesia deferred roughly 60 thousand ounces of refined gold from the third quarter into the fourth quarter. As a result, Freeport expects third-quarter consolidated copper sales to approximate its July 2026 estimate of 750 million pounds, while gold sales are expected to approximate 100 thousand ounces, below the July estimate. Consolidated unit net cash costs are now expected to come in about 5% above the July 2026 estimate of $2.00 per pound of copper, mainly on lower by-product credits from the deferred gold sales, and the company estimates its third-quarter consolidated average realized price will exceed $6.50 per pound of copper. At the Grasberg minerals district, mill throughput averaged approximately 140,000 metric tons of ore per day, about 67% of normalized rates prior to the September 2025 incident, and PTFI's smelter in Eastern Java re-commenced operations in late August 2026, with Freeport still targeting 80% of capacity in mid-2027 and near full capacity by year-end 2027.
FCX · Supply · Negative Q3 copper/gold output in line but gold sales deferred and unit cash costs ~5% above July estimate on lower by-product credits, with Grasberg throughput only ~67% of normalized rates.
GOLD · Supply · Negative Timing changes at PT Freeport Indonesia deferred roughly 60 thousand ounces of refined gold from Q3 into Q4, cutting Q3 gold sales to ~100 thousand ounces.
COPPER · Supply · Neutral Freeport's Q3 copper production of 830 million pounds was in line with expectations, with slightly better international results offsetting lower U.S. output.
HSBC Cuts 2026 Average Gold Price Forecast to $4,490
HSBC said on the 1st that it expects the average gold price in 2026 to reach $4,490 per ounce, revising its forecast down from the previous estimate of $4,560. For 2027, it also lowered its forecast to $4,825 from the previous estimate of $4,925. HSBC economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to implement an additional rate hike in December, and while they noted that additional rate hikes and rising crude oil prices could weigh on prices in the short term, they maintained the view that long-term supporting factors will persist. They also mentioned that the prolonged Middle East conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, could trigger another surge in crude oil prices, accelerate inflation, and increase the likelihood that interest rates remain elevated for an extended period. HSBC forecasts that gold prices will trade in a range of $3,950 to $4,600 per ounce during the year and in a range of $4,300 to $5,300 in 2027. It kept its forecast for the average gold price at $5,200 in 2028 and $5,300 in 2029 unchanged. Gold prices have fallen more than 20% since the attacks on Iran, which it attributed to a sharp jump in crude oil prices that intensified inflationary pressure and led to Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, HSBC expects widening fiscal deficits, persistently high government debt levels, and growing uncertainty over economic policy to serve as long-term tailwinds for gold prices, noting that investment demand in China remains solid, demand in India is recovering, and central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold purchases over the long term.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative HSBC cut its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,490, citing Fed rate hikes and elevated rates that weigh on gold prices.
HSBA.LSE · Capital · Neutral HSBC itself issued the revised gold price forecast, a research/valuation call with no clear directional impact on its own shares.
YLG says gold rebounds but still fails to break through $4,220, eyes US labour market
YLG Bullion International Company Limited released its daily gold price analysis report for 2 October 2026, stating that yesterday gold prices rebounded in the short term but were still unable to break through the resistance level of $4,220. It tested the first resistance at $4,192 before selling pressure pushed it lower once again, with the first support levels estimated at $4,151-4,142 and $4,109 respectively. On the fundamentals side, gold closed up $21.50 yesterday after Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair of the Fed, said the Fed may need more time to assess data before adjusting policy, echoing John Williams, President of the New York Fed, who saw no need to rush. As a result, the probability of a rate hike in October fell to about 25% from 70%. Meanwhile, HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026-2027 to $4,490 and $4,825, but assessed that prices are near their bottom and expected central banks to return as buyers if prices approach or fall below $4,000. For today, the market is watching the release of key US labour market data.
GOLD · Monetary · Positive Gold closed up $21.50 after Fed officials signaled no rush to adjust policy, cutting October rate-hike odds to ~25% from 70%.
HSBA.LSE · Capital · Negative HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026-2027 to $4,490 and $4,825.
Government opens registration for Thailand Helps Thailand Plus 1,000 baht benefit via Paotang
The government has opened registration to confirm and use benefits under the additional Thailand Helps Thailand Plus (60/40) scheme through the Paotang app starting October 1, 2026. Recipients will receive 1,000 baht in assistance over the course of the project, which runs for two months from October 1 to November 30, 2026. The state pays 60% and the public pays 40%, with the government co-payment capped at 200 baht per person per day. Those who have already linked G Wallet simply need to open the Paotang app, select the Thailand Helps Thailand Plus (60/40) banner, read the conditions and press the registration button. Those who have previously cancelled or never linked G Wallet must first sign up for G Wallet before they can confirm their eligibility. On gold prices, after surging past 4,500 dollars per ounce earlier in September, the metal has now pulled back below 4,200 dollars per ounce. InnovestX Securities sees gold remaining under short-term pressure from high real yields after the market increased its weighting on expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates again in October, and recommends holding existing positions rather than chasing additional purchases. Kasikorn Securities sees the outlook for the second half of 2026 as still dependent on the Middle East situation and the Fed's interest rate policy. StoneX takes a cautiously positive view for the fourth quarter, assessing that central bank gold buying remains a key support, and technically the 4,400 dollars per ounce resistance level must be watched; a break above could open the way to test 4,500 and 4,700 dollars. Key support sits around 4,100 to 4,120 dollars and 4,000 dollars. In the latest situation on October 1, 2026, InterGold recommends a strategy of waiting to buy at support, seeing global gold support at around 4,130 dollars per ounce and resistance at 4,230 dollars, equivalent to domestic gold prices of about 66,000 and 66,900 baht respectively.
YLG recommends buying back gold above $4,142, waiting for support at $4,109 if it breaks lower
YLG recommends that investors buy back their short gold positions if the price does not break below support at $4,142 per ounce, and advises waiting to buy back at the next support level of $4,109 if the price falls through. It also suggests moving the trailing stop to lock in profits. Meanwhile, it recommends opening short positions again if the price rebounds but fails to break through $4,220, with a stop loss on the short position if the price passes that level. Gold traded today in a range of $4,139 to $4,192 per ounce. Domestically, the selling price of 96.5% gold bars stood at 66,350 baht per baht-weight of gold, down 200 baht from the previous day's price of 66,550 baht. On October 1, 2026, the gold price fell to $4,160 per ounce, driven by geopolitical factors from the US–Iran war through the energy inflation channel, after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal asking the US to lift its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz and denied reports that sanctions would be eased. Brent crude closed at $103.53 per barrel, up 0.92%, and gained about 14% for the month of September compared with the previous month. WTI closed at $90.42 per barrel, up 1.16%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool reflected that the probability of the Fed raising rates by 0.25% in October fell to about 37% from 51% the previous day and about 71% a week earlier. Goldman Sachs pushed back its forecast for the next rate hike to December and sees a high chance that the FOMC will not raise rates again.
GOLD · Geopolitics · Negative Gold fell to $4,160 on geopolitical factors from the US–Iran war via the energy-inflation channel after Trump rejected Iran's proposal and denied sanctions easing.
YLG Bullion and Futures Public Company Limited · · Neutral YLG issued trading recommendations on gold support/resistance levels; no clear directional driver for the company itself.
Gold closes down 150 baht, ornamental gold sells at 67,200 baht, YLG sees further downside risk
Domestic gold prices closed today down 150 baht per baht-weight of gold from yesterday's close, with ornamental gold selling out at 67,200.00 baht per baht-weight and bought at 64,869.64 baht per baht-weight, according to the Gold Traders Association. The market opened for the first time at 09:09 and adjusted prices 22 times during the day. Gold bars sold at 66,400.00 baht per baht-weight and were bought at 66,200.00 baht per baht-weight, while Gold Spot stood at 4,165.00 dollars per ounce. YLG's evening gold analysis said prices extended their decline this afternoon to 4,160 dollars, pressured by the dollar index, bond yields and higher crude oil prices stemming from the unresolved US-Iran war. Although headline PCE and core PCE for August came in below expectations, gold responded to the good news only briefly before falling sharply and breaking below its pre-release level. Meanwhile, CME Group's FedWatch tool reflected that the probability of a 0.25% Fed rate hike in October fell to about 37% from 51%. YLG estimates first support at 4,142 and 4,109 dollars, and sees further downside if a rebound fails to break through 4,220 dollars.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold fell as the dollar index and bond yields pressured prices, with Fed rate-hike odds shifting, driving gold futures lower.
YLG Bullion and Futures Public Company Limited · Monetary · Negative YLG's analysis attributes gold's decline to dollar strength, bond yields and Fed rate expectations, and it sees further downside risk.
Amaroq Ltd. has completed its 2026 resource drilling programme at the Nanoq Gold Project in South Greenland, with 4,728.9 metres of core drilling across 33 holes focused on infill drilling of the Central Zone to support a planned maiden Mineral Resource Estimate, alongside step-out drilling to the south and at the West 1 target. Approximately 88% of holes intersected visible gold and copper sulphides similar to that observed in 2024 and 2025, with assay results still pending. Metallurgical test work by SGS Lakefield indicates Nanoq mineralisation is amenable to processing at the Nalunaq facility, with total gold recoveries of approximately 97 to 99% using the existing flow-sheet. Construction has also commenced on the Nanoq beach landing facility and starter access track, improving access to the mineralised area. CEO Eldur Ólafsson said the results provide the basis for bulk sampling Nanoq ore at Nalunaq towards the end of 2027 or into 2028, and for further resource and exploration drilling.
AMRQ.LSE · Technology · Positive Amaroq completed 2026 drilling at Nanoq with 88% of holes hitting visible gold/copper sulphides and 97-99% gold recoveries confirmed by SGS, advancing the project toward a maiden resource estimate and bulk sampling.
SGS Lakefield · Demand · Positive SGS Lakefield's metallurgical test work confirmed 97-99% gold recoveries for Nanoq mineralisation, a direct services engagement for the company.
GOLD · Supply · Positive Amaroq's high-grade drilling results and strong recoveries at Nanoq point to potential new gold supply, a supportive signal for gold.
Gold plunges to 7-week low; GCAP GOLD advises waiting for price to base at $4,100 before buying the dip
Gold prices in global markets and Thai gold have tumbled to their lowest level in more than seven weeks, with world gold trading around $4,100 per ounce after breaking below its previous key support level of $4,200 per ounce. Ms. Areerat Murachai, Chief Analyst at GCAP Co., Ltd., or GCAP GOLD, said the main pressure came from higher crude oil prices, which sparked concerns that inflation may ease more slowly than expected. That has raised the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve, or the Fed, will raise interest rates again, pushing US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar sharply higher, which is a direct drag on gold prices. GCAP GOLD recommends that investors wait and watch until prices begin to stabilise and form a clear base, and until there are signs of buying returning to the market, before considering a new round of accumulation. The $4,100 per ounce level equates to roughly 65,000 baht for gold in Thailand. If prices rebound, there is a chance of testing resistance in the $4,200 to $4,225 per ounce range, equivalent to about 66,500 to 66,800 baht for Thai gold. But if prices fall below $4,100 per ounce, investors should wait and assess the next support level around $4,065 per ounce, or roughly 64,700 baht for Thai gold. There are three main factors to monitor: oil prices and the progress of US-Iran negotiations; the direction of bond yields and the US dollar; and US economic data, especially PCE inflation figures and nonfarm payrolls due on Friday, which will be a key guide for assessing the Fed's interest rate decisions at its two remaining meetings this year.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold plunges to a 7-week low as higher oil-driven inflation fears raise the odds of Fed rate hikes, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar, a direct drag on gold
YLG Sees Gold Support at $4,142 After $25.50 Drop on Strong US Labor Data
YLG Bullion International Co., Ltd. released its daily gold price analysis report for October 1, 2026, stating that gold closed down $25.50 yesterday. Prices initially surged after the US PCE index rose 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%, which led the market to reduce expectations of a Fed rate hike in October. However, gold was unable to hold its gains after September ADP figures showed an increase of 90,000 positions, above the expected 70,000, while second-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2%, reflecting an economy and labor market that remain strong. The company assesses that if an intraday rebound fails to break through $4,220, prices are likely to continue declining, with first support at $4,142 and then $4,109. It recommends buying back short positions if $4,142 holds, and delaying buybacks to the $4,109 support level if the first support is broken, while adjusting the trailing stop to lock in profits. Meanwhile, the market is also watching US-Iran talks via Qatar regarding a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz, which could affect oil prices, inflation, and demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Kasikorn Research Center says gold plunges below $4,200, watch 4 factors shaping direction
Kasikorn Research Center reported that global gold prices fell below $4,200 per ounce in late September 2026, dropping $259 per ounce, or 5.8%, to a low of $4,110.55 per ounce, the weakest level since early August 2026. Meanwhile, domestic gold bar prices fell below 66,000 baht per baht-weight of gold, down 3,850 baht per baht-weight, or 5.5%, tracking the global market. Thai gold prices declined at a slightly slower pace than global prices, partly because the weaker baht helped limit pressure. The main pressure came from energy prices holding high amid conflict in the Middle East, which added to inflation pressure, prompting the US Federal Reserve to raise its policy rate at its September meeting and pushing US government bond yields sharply higher. Looking ahead, investors should monitor four key factors: the situation in the Middle East, the direction of bond yields, especially US bond yields, signals from the US Federal Reserve, and US economic data including inflation. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Consensus expect global gold prices at the end of 2026 may recover to around $4,465 per ounce, but Kasikorn Research Center believes the recovery may remain limited, given the prolonged Middle East situation, leaving short-term gold prices prone to high volatility, and market watchers should also consider the direction of the baht.
Bualuang Securities Sets 2027 Gold Target at 5,600 US Dollars per Ounce
Bualuang Securities released its October Cross Asset report, stating that gold still carries a positive outlook for 2027, with a Base-case target price of 5,000 US dollars per ounce and a Best-case scenario of 5,600 US dollars per ounce. This follows 2026, when prices had surged to a peak of around 5,600 US dollars per ounce in late January, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, expectations of falling interest rates, and the Debasement Trade trend, before a sharp correction from March through June and a recovery after building a base around 4,000 US dollars per ounce on buying from gold ETF funds. The report states that under the Base Case, the Fed is expected to raise rates just one more time by 25 bps during the remainder of 2026 before entering a period of holding rates steady, which will keep real yields elevated in the short term and may limit the pace of gold's recovery. Structural demand remains strong: in August, the Chinese central bank accumulated gold for a 22nd consecutive month, while Poland continued to build up its gold reserves to near its 700-tonne target. On the supply side, total gold supply has grown only at a low-single-digit rate over the past several years.
Domestic gold falls 250 baht per baht weight, tracking global gold
The retail price of 96.5% gold in Thailand opened lower this morning, down 250 baht per baht weight, tracking global gold prices. The Gold Traders Association announced its first price of the day at 9:09 a.m., with gold bars bought at 66,100 baht per baht weight and sold at 66,300 baht per baht weight, while gold ornaments were bought at 64,778.68 baht per baht weight and sold at 67,100 baht per baht weight. An analysis by Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures Company Limited said global gold declined as the 10-year US bond yield rose for a third consecutive day to 5.28% from 5.20%, after the United States reported that the third estimate of second-quarter GDP came in above analyst expectations. Meanwhile, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool has returned to pricing in more than a 60% chance that the Fed may hold interest rates at 3.50–3.75% at this October's FOMC meeting, after both core and headline personal consumption indices came in higher than expected. The SPDR fund sold 1.70 tonnes of gold, and the analysis assessed that global gold may continue to move sideways within a range of 4,120 to 4,200 dollars, but if it breaks below support at 4,100 dollars, it could correct downward again.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Global gold fell as the 10-year US bond yield rose for a third day and Fed rate-hold odds increased, with SPDR selling 1.70 tonnes.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Rising 10-year US Treasury yield (5.28%) and strong GDP/higher PCE data push yields up, which is negative for bond prices.
Gold closes up $7 as US inflation comes in below expectations, cutting odds of a Fed rate hike
Gold futures on the New York market closed up $7, or 0.17%, at $4,186.70 an ounce on Wednesday, September 30, after the United States reported inflation figures below expectations, which could reduce the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again at its October meeting. The US Commerce Department reported that the headline personal consumption expenditures price index, which includes food and energy, rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier, below analysts' forecast of 3.7%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy and is the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, rose 3.0% in August from a year earlier, below analysts' forecast of 3.3%. After the data were released, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in only a 37% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at its October meeting, down from 51% on Tuesday and from 71% a week earlier. Investors are watching the US nonfarm payrolls report due this Friday, October 2, with analysts expecting job growth of 98,000 in September after a gain of 162,000 in August, and expecting the September unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.
Gold Rebounds After Lower-Than-Expected PCE, Boosting Odds Fed Holds Rates in October
Gold prices rebounded today after the release of a lower-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, easing investor concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. As of 11:10 p.m. Thailand time, spot gold was up 9.29 dollars, or 0.22%, at 4,157.81 dollars per ounce, while COMEX gold futures for December delivery rose 7.90 dollars, or 0.19%, to 4,187.60 dollars per ounce. The market also drew support from a weaker dollar and declining US government bond yields, with the 30-year yield falling to 5.578% after surging yesterday to its highest level since 2002, the 10-year yield dropping to 5.217% after hitting its highest since 2007 yesterday, and the 2-year yield easing to 4.827%. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool shows investors now assign a 62.9% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, up from just 49.1% yesterday, and a 37.1% probability to a 0.25% rate hike to 4.00-4.25%, down from 50.9% yesterday. The US Commerce Department reported that the headline PCE index, which includes food and energy, rose 3.4% year-on-year in August, below analysts' forecast of 3.7%, and was up 0.3% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.0% year-on-year, below the forecast of 3.3%, and was up 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%.
YLG Reveals Top 20 Gold-Holding Countries: Uzbekistan Leads at 87%, US at 84%, Thailand Ranks 23rd Globally
YLG Bullion International, known as YLG, has disclosed the list of the top 20 countries holding the most gold, citing data from the World Gold Council compiled from International Monetary Fund statistics as of the second quarter of 2026. Uzbekistan ranks first with gold accounting for as much as 86 to 87 percent of its international reserves, equivalent to roughly 416 tonnes of gold reserves. It is followed by the United States at 84 percent, or 8,133.5 tonnes, making it the world's largest holder of gold by volume. Germany stands at 84 percent, or 3,350.3 tonnes, and Lebanon at 82 percent, or 286.8 tonnes. Thailand's gold share is 10.5 percent, equivalent to 234.5 tonnes of reserves, ranking 23rd in the world and first in Southeast Asia. China's gold reserves stand at 2,366 tonnes, or about 5 percent of its reserves. Pawan Nawawattanasub, Chief Executive Officer of YLG, said the factors supporting gold prices remain on an upward trend in the long term, driven by buying from central banks worldwide. China has accumulated more than 1,000 tonnes of gold imports since the start of the year through August, exceeding its total imports for all of 2025. Meanwhile, Poland, whose gold already accounts for about 30 percent of its international reserves, aims to keep buying until it reaches 700 tonnes.
Gold rebounds $60 as market cuts Fed rate-hike odds to 50%
Gold prices rebounded by $60.63, or 1.47%, to $4,181.98 after plunging nearly 4% on Monday, supported by oil prices falling below $100 a barrel as Middle East oil exports began to recover, helping ease inflation concerns. Meanwhile, US economic data came in weaker than expected, and New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed does not yet need to rush to raise rates further, sending US Treasury yields down from their highs after those remarks. The market lowered its odds for a Fed rate hike in October to 50.4% from nearly 70% early in the session, while investors continue to watch US inflation and employment data to gauge the direction of interest rates ahead. The SPDR gold fund sold 1.43 tonnes the previous day and now holds 1,057.41 tonnes. For September overall it bought 15.06 tonnes, while year to date from January 1 it has sold a net 14.59 tonnes.
GOLD · Monetary · Positive Gold rebounded $60.63 as lower Fed rate-hike odds and falling Treasury yields after Williams' remarks boosted the metal.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Negative Weaker US data and Williams' dovish remarks cut October Fed rate-hike odds to 50.4%, pushing Treasury yields down from their highs.
Gold opens 300 baht higher at 67,100 baht on hopes for US–Iran talks
Domestic gold prices opened 300 baht per baht-weight higher today, with the Gold Traders Association quoting ornamental gold at 67,100.00 baht per baht-weight for selling and 64,778.68 baht per baht-weight for buying, while gold bars were quoted at 66,300.00 baht per baht-weight for selling and 66,100.00 baht per baht-weight for buying. Spot gold stood at 4,172.00 dollars per ounce. Poon Panichpibool, a money and capital markets strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS of Krungthai Bank, said hopes for a ceasefire negotiation between the United States and Iran, together with market players trimming their expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates, helped push COMEX gold futures for December 2026 delivery back up toward the 4,200 dollars per ounce zone. CNBC reported that spot gold rose 1.1% to 4,157.39 dollars per ounce after falling nearly 4% the previous day and touching its lowest level since August 5, pressured by a stronger dollar, higher US government bond yields and inflation concerns. The market is pricing a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates in October and a 95% chance it will do so in December, according to data from the CME's FedWatch tool.
GOLD · Monetary · Positive Gold futures rose on hopes for US–Iran ceasefire talks and trimmed Fed rate-hike expectations, easing the monetary pressure that had pushed gold down.
Lake Victoria Gold Reports 84.54% Extraction at Imwelo as Tanzania Gold Exports Jump 37.4%
Lake Victoria Gold Ltd. reported that attrition scrubbing followed by desliming lifted 24-hour gold extraction from 49.99% to 84.54% in agitated-leach testing on weathered Area C material at its fully permitted Imwelo Gold Project in Tanzania, with bottle-roll recovery of up to 88.15% on the pretreated fraction versus 70.76% on as-received material. The testwork, completed by Nesch Mintech Tanzania Limited on 38 HQ whole-core samples weighing 120.34 kg with an average composite head grade of 3.80 g/t Au, complements the company's March 18, 2026 program on deeper transitional and fresh mineralization, which returned recoveries of up to approximately 96% to 97%. Early works are advancing at Imwelo, with 14 km of access road repaired, bulk earthworks progressing and the construction camp substantially complete, while shallow Area C drilling returned 28.71 g/t Au over 2.75 metres from 21 metres and 12.20 g/t Au over 4.50 metres from 32 metres. The funding pathway includes a gold loan facility with Monetary Metals & Co. of up to 6,000 ounces of gold, approximately US$25 million, repayable in gold, alongside a convertible debenture financing later upsized to $5 million. The development comes as Tanzania's gold exports rose 37.4% to US$5.67 billion in the year ending July 2026, according to the Bank of Tanzania, with gold accounting for 47.4% of goods export earnings over that period.
Montage Gold Reports First Gold Production at Koné Mine in Côte d'Ivoire
Montage Gold has reported first gold production at its Koné mine in Côte d'Ivoire, with the initial pour completed on budget and ahead of schedule. The milestone gives investors a clearer view of project execution, though the company's share price has eased in the very short term, with 1-day, 7-day and 30-day returns all down around 5%, while the 90-day return stands at 17.23%. Montage Gold last closed at CA$18.91, against a most-followed fair value narrative of CA$23.50, implying roughly 20% undervaluation. On a price-to-book basis, however, the stock trades at 12.8x versus a Canadian metals and mining group average of 2.7x and a broader peer set near 4.2x. The bull case rests on a smooth ramp-up in 2027 and controlled costs, while the bear case warns of construction slippage, rising costs or disappointing grade reconciliation at Koné.
GOLD · Supply · Positive First gold production at Montage Gold's Koné mine adds new gold supply, a mild negative for gold's own price but the article reports the supply addition as the development
YLG Says Gold May See Short-Term Bounce After Oversold, Watch Resistance at $4,244
YLG Bullion International Company Limited issued its daily gold price outlook report for September 29, 2026, stating that continuous selling pressure emerged in the gold market yesterday, with gold closing down $170.90 to touch its lowest level since the start of August, after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the market gave weight to the prospect that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, pushing the yield on 10-year US inflation-protected Treasuries up to near 2.9%, the highest since the global financial crisis, which pressured gold prices. The analysis team views that today a short-term bounce may occur after prices have become oversold and a Bull Div signal has appeared on smaller timeframes. However, if the bounce fails to break through $4,244, the view is that it is likely a bounce before further declines, with the first resistance at $4,150-4,189. It recommends opening short positions when the price bounces but fails to break $4,150, and delaying to sell at $4,189-4,244, with a stop loss on short positions if the price breaks above $4,244. As for buying back short positions, this can be done if the price bounces without breaking below $4,110-4,109, and if it breaks below $4,109, delay buying back at the next support zone around $4,065-4,020. At the same time, oil prices pared gains after Reuters reported that US and Iranian officials held separate talks with mediators on Monday, September 28, and President Trump stated that further negotiations with Iran would take place within this week.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold fell $170.90 to its lowest since August as the market weighed a Fed rate hike and 10-year TIPS yields hit ~2.9%, pressuring the metal.
Gold Falls Below $4,200 Under Pressure from Bond Yields; Oil Surges After US Rejects Iran's Proposal
Gold prices fell below the $4,200 level amid pressure from high US bond yields around 5.2%, while oil prices rose more than 1% on concerns over the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal regarding opening shipping routes and returning to nuclear talks. WTI crude rose 1.10% to around $97 per barrel, and Brent crude rose 1.08% to around $103 per barrel. Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations with the United States within 7 days if the US accepts Iran's conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran is ready to face war with the United States, even if it escalates to an all-out doomsday war, but is still keeping diplomatic channels open, reaffirming the same conditions that the Strait of Hormuz will open only when the US ends its attacks, lifts the maritime blockade and economic pressure measures, and returns Iran's assets. From a technical perspective, gold prices are still trading below the $4,200 area; on the 4-hour timeframe, the price is below the MA200 and RSI has fallen below 30, reflecting still-heavy selling pressure. If the price holds the $4,100 level, there is a chance of a recovery to test resistance around $4,200, but if it fails to hold, additional selling pressure could push prices lower. For trading strategy, short-term traders should wait to buy on dips near $4,100 and gradually take profits around $4,200, while medium- to long-term traders should hold off on buying and wait to assess a new base forming near the $4,100-$4,050 level. As for Thai gold, wait to buy on dips around 65,200 baht and take partial profits when prices recover toward 66,700 baht.
US Treasury yields break higher and dollar strengthens, gold prices fall to a more than seven-week low, Bosera Gold ETF attracts a combined 217 million yuan over five straight days
Weighed down by rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold prices fell to a more than seven-week low, while Bosera Gold ETF recorded a combined net inflow of 217 million yuan over five consecutive days. As of 11:02 on September 29, 2026, the AU9999 index tracked by Bosera Gold ETF was down 0.63 percent, with intraday turnover of 0.64 percent and trading volume of 261 million yuan. In early Asian trading on September 29, spot gold traded near 4,140 US dollars per ounce, after falling nearly 4 percent on Monday and touching a more than seven-week low during the session. On Monday, yields across the US Treasury curve rose by 7 to 8 basis points overall, with the 10-year real yield breaking higher to its highest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, while the dollar index climbed above 101. In terms of fund flows, Bosera Gold ETF has seen net inflows for five consecutive days, with the largest single-day net inflow reaching 78.1012 million yuan, a combined total of 217 million yuan, and an average daily net inflow of 43.4859 million yuan.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold fell to a more than seven-week low, weighed down by rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive US Treasury yields rose 7-8bp across the curve, with the 10-year real yield breaking to its highest since Lehman, so the 10Y yield itself moves higher.
Bosera Asset Management Co., Ltd. · · Neutral Bosera Gold ETF drew 217 million yuan of net inflows over five straight days even as gold prices fell, a mixed fund-flow signal with no clear directional driver.
Customs flags 900 billion baht in gold imports, urges oversight to curb scams and fix trade deficit
Panthong Loikulnan, Director-General of the Customs Department, disclosed that in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2026, total trade value stood at 24.05 trillion baht, up 19.31% from the previous year. Imports were valued at 12.8 trillion baht, up 26.30%, while exports came to 11.25 trillion baht. Thailand ran a trade deficit of roughly 1.6 trillion baht, part of which stemmed from gold imports worth 900 billion baht and crude oil imports worth 1 trillion baht, together exceeding 2 trillion baht. Panthong said the 900 billion baht in gold imports accounted for 7-8% of all imports, a level of gold consumption that should not be this high, and that gold is one of the goods exempt from import tax, costing the department revenue on this front. He also stated that the country must regulate gold imports, not only out of concern over scams but also because of the impact on the trade deficit. Currently, Malaysia levies a 10% import tax on gold and India 15%, while the Customs Department's role is to compile international trade data to support policy formulation. Whether to impose a tax on gold is a matter for policymakers.
GOLD · Regulation · Neutral Thailand's Customs Department flags 900 billion baht in gold imports and urges oversight/taxation, a potential regulatory change for gold, but no decision has been made.
Gold opens higher by 400 baht, Hua Seng Heng sees sideways trend tracking global gold
Retail gold at 96.5% purity opened 400 baht per baht-weight higher this morning, tracking the global gold trend. The Gold Traders Association announced its first price quote at 9:06 a.m., with gold bars bought at 67,700 baht per baht-weight and sold at 67,900 baht per baht-weight, while gold ornaments were bought at 66,340.16 baht per baht-weight and sold at 68,700 baht per baht-weight. An analysis by Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures Co., Ltd. stated that global gold prices rebounded and held above support around 4,235 dollars, bringing the overall picture back to a sideways trend as prices appear unlikely to make a new low. It assessed that global gold may pull back again after testing resistance around 4,300 and 4,320 dollars, but if it breaks below the next support at 4,200 dollars, it could make a new low again. Earlier, global gold declined as the dollar index DXY rose for a fourth consecutive day to 101.24 points from 100.25 points, while the 10-year US bond yield rose for a second day to 5.20% from 4.94%. Meanwhile, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, one of the committee members eligible to vote on interest rates in 2026, said inflation still requires special attention and that further rate hikes may be necessary, driven mainly by the Middle East war and investment in AI infrastructure. Tensions between the United States and Iran show no sign of easing after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed the United States and Israel for inciting global instability, keeping alive concerns over an energy-driven inflation crisis that could force the Fed to raise rates in the future, a negative factor for gold. The SPDR fund held its gold holdings unchanged.
GOLD · Monetary · Neutral Gold rebounded above $4,235 support but faces pressure from a rising dollar index and 10-year yield plus hawkish Fed rate-hike talk, leaving the trend sideways.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive The 10-year US bond yield rose for a second day to 5.20% from 4.94%, so the yield itself is up.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Philadelphia Fed president said inflation still requires attention and further rate hikes may be necessary, implying a higher policy rate.
SET50 futures slip on bond-yield highs and surging oil
SET50 Index Futures fell today, tracking overseas equity markets. Warut Rungkham, director of the analysis department at YLG Bullion Futures, said the main pressure came from the yield on 10-year US government bonds, which climbed above 5% to its highest level in nearly 20 years. Meanwhile, Brent crude rebounded above 100 dollars per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, fueling concern that inflation could accelerate and that the US Federal Reserve may lean toward raising interest rates in line with higher oil prices. Investors are also growing more cautious over domestic political factors, with the Constitutional Court set to read its ruling next week in the case involving the ballot barcode. The market is also worried that US-China trade talks may fail to make progress. The SET50 index closed at 1,077.36 points, down 5.25 points, or 0.48%. Tomorrow the index is expected to weaken further. The recommendation is to open short positions if the index fails to break resistance at 1,081 to 1,085 points, and to wait for pullbacks to take profits gradually around support at 1,069 points and 1,063 points. It is also advised to switch to the S50Z26 contract instead of S50U26, which expires next Tuesday. Gold prices are likely to consolidate under the same pressures weighing on risk assets, with the decline expected to stay limited. If prices weaken toward support at 4,200 to 4,234 US dollars per ounce, that would be a chance to accumulate gradually or buy for short-term trades. At resistance of 4,300 to 4,344 US dollars per ounce, if prices fail to break through, investors may sell gradually to reduce risk. Gold trading volume may slow because the Chinese market will be closed tomorrow for the Mid-Autumn Festival.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive 10-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5%, its highest in nearly 20 years, pressuring risk assets.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold consolidates under pressure from surging bond yields and oil-driven inflation/Fed rate concerns, though decline seen limited.
GCAP GOLD Sees Gold Testing $4,400, Advises Waiting to Buy at $4,330-4,300
Areerat Murachai, Head of Analysis at GCAP GOLD, said gold prices are showing continued signs of recovery after climbing back above $4,300 per ounce and moving closer to key resistance around $4,400 per ounce, supported by lower oil prices, which helped ease inflation concerns and reduced some selling pressure in the gold market. For investment strategy, she recommends waiting to buy on dips when prices can build a base between $4,330 and $4,300 per ounce, or roughly 68,250 to 67,800 baht for Thai gold, with resistance for short-term profit-taking at $4,400 to $4,420 per ounce, or about 69,200 to 69,500 baht. If prices can hold firmly above $4,420 per ounce, or about 69,500 baht for Thai gold, that would open the way for a rise to test $4,500 per ounce, or about 70,500 baht for Thai gold. But if prices fall below $4,300 per ounce, or about 67,800 baht for Thai gold, she advises slowing investment and waiting for prices to form a new base before considering buying again. Key factors to watch from here are remarks from Federal Reserve officials after the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% at its latest meeting, with the dot plot signaling at least one more rate hike may come before the end of the year. At the same time, the 10-year US bond yield, which is moving near 5%, must be monitored, along with tensions in the Middle East, which remain both a support and a pressure on gold prices. Although oil prices have weakened, they are still trading near $100 per barrel.
GOLD · Monetary · Positive Gold recovering above $4,300 toward $4,400 resistance, supported by lower oil easing inflation concerns and Fed rate-hike/bond-yield and Middle East factors
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Article notes the Fed raised rates 0.25% with the dot plot signaling at least one more hike, implying a higher policy rate
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Article flags the 10-year US bond yield moving near 5%, i.e. elevated yields
Gold Hits One-Week Low Below $4,300 as Fed Hike Bets and Iran Risks Lift Dollar
Gold (XAU/USD) touched a one-week low during the Asian session on Thursday, though the move lacked follow-through as traders awaited a crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The metal struggled below $4,300, pressured by Federal Reserve rate-hike bets and Iran-related risks that underpinned the US dollar. Market participants remained cautious ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, which kept gold's decline from extending further.
New York Gold Closes Down $58 After Fed Signals Rate Hikes
New York gold futures closed lower on Wednesday, September 23, after several U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled support for raising interest rates to curb inflation. COMEX December gold fell $58, or 1.33%, to close at $4,318.40 an ounce. The dollar index rose 0.5%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds climbed to its highest level in 19 years. The stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold futures more expensive and less attractive to investors holding other currencies, while the surge in bond yields raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the Fed needs to continue raising interest rates to control inflation, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both signaled the need for further rate hikes. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors are pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its October meeting and a 95% probability for the December meeting.
GCAP GOLD Flags Gold Resistance at $4,375 After Dollar Strengthens, Eyes Trump–Xi Jinping Meeting
Gold prices have come under selling pressure once again after recovering from below $4,300, weighed down by the dollar index climbing to its highest level since July 30. The Fed's tight monetary policy stance continues to pressure non-yielding gold in the short term. The Fed raised rates at its September meeting and signaled it may hike again this year, leading the market to price in roughly a 90% chance of a December rate increase, which remains a supportive factor for the dollar. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. Although President Trump said talks with Iran were going well, no details of an agreement have emerged, while the US has begun enforcing additional sanctions on Iran. However, falling oil prices have helped ease inflation concerns and pushed US bond yields down from earlier highs, which may help limit gold's selling pressure. The market is also awaiting Thursday's meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, which could affect market confidence and the dollar's direction. From a technical perspective, gold remains in a short-term consolidation phase after its rebound was capped at resistance around $4,375. RSI is hovering near the midpoint and MACD remains in negative territory, suggesting buying momentum is not strong enough to confirm a recovery. If prices break above $4,375, there is a chance to test key resistance at $4,400, and a further break would open the way to $4,515. Key support sits at $4,310; a clear break below would risk a decline to test $4,285 and then $4,225.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold faces selling pressure as the dollar index hits its highest since July 30 and Fed tightening keeps rates high, capping the rebound at $4,375 resistance.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Fed raised rates in September and signaled another hike this year, with ~90% odds priced for December, keeping the effective funds rate elevated.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Neutral Fed tightening supports higher yields, but falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and pushed US bond yields down from earlier highs.
Gold falls below $4,300 as US bond yields surge past 5%
Gold prices fell below the $4,300 level today, pressured by a stronger dollar and a rebound in US government bond yields. As of 11:35 p.m. Thailand time, spot gold was down $52.55, or 1.21%, at $4,287.03 an ounce, while COMEX December gold futures fell $58.10, or 1.33%, to $4,318.30 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped past the 5% mark today, hitting a 19-year high, after S&P Global reported that its preliminary composite US manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index rose to 58.4 in September, the highest in 62 months, from 56.0 in August. The preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 57.0, a 52-month high, and the preliminary services PMI at 58.7, a 59-month high. Gold prices were also weighed down by remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, who backed further Fed interest rate hikes to control inflation, saying the labor market and economic growth remain strong but inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target.
Hua Seng Heng eyes US-China summit on Sept 24, says it will set short-term direction for gold
Hua Seng Heng said global financial markets are watching the summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping on September 24, which will set the direction for gold prices, bond yields and the foreign exchange market. The market does not expect the meeting to produce a grand deal that immediately ends the conflict between the two countries, but is instead weighing the ability of both sides to keep the relationship stable and reduce the risk of escalation. There are four key issues on the negotiating table: trade and tariffs, technology and AI, Iran and the Middle East situation, and Taiwan, which is the most fragile issue in US-China relations. Hua Seng Heng assessed that if the outcome is positive, some capital could flow back into equities and risk assets, while demand for holding gold as a hedge could decline, leaving gold prices exposed to profit-taking or a short-term consolidation. But if the talks stall or there are signs of a return to additional pressure measures, investors could cut holdings of risk assets and raise their weighting in safe-haven assets, which could support gold prices. However, Hua Seng Heng views the US-China rivalry as structural in nature, making it difficult for a single meeting to resolve all the conflict. The key issue after the meeting is therefore not only what agreements were reached, but how much the talks reduce or increase the level of uncertainty in global markets. Investors should also track US Treasury yields and the dollar in tandem.
Hua Seng Heng · · Neutral Hua Seng Heng is the analyst issuing the gold outlook; the article reports its assessment, not a company-specific development.
GOLD · Geopolitics · Neutral US-China summit outcome could either reduce safe-haven gold demand (positive outcome) or support gold if talks stall, so direction is unclear.
Hua Seng Heng expects gold to hit $5,000 by end of 2026, SCB sees further upside
Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures estimates global gold prices at around $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with domestic gold prices likely to trade in a range of 75,000 to 75,700 baht per baht-weight of gold, under an assumption of the baht at 31.70 to 32.00 baht per dollar. Sirilak Pakotiprapha, Director of the Analysis Department, said that over the past 20 years gold prices have risen more than eightfold, and in 2025 gold demand reached a record high of 5,000 tonnes, driven by buying from retail investors worried about missing out. In 2026, gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January before declining between March and June amid the Iran war and inflation concerns. Wachiravat Banchuen, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at SCB Financial Markets, Siam Commercial Bank, estimates global gold prices at $4,900 to $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with a chance of rising above $5,000 per ounce in 2027. He expects central banks worldwide to buy a net 50 tonnes of gold per month in 2026 and 40 tonnes per month in 2027, and sees the baht trading in a range of 33.30 to 33.80 baht per dollar over the next one to two months and at 32.80 to 33.80 baht per dollar by the end of the year.
GOLD · Demand · Positive Hua Seng Heng and SCB forecast gold at $4,900-5,000/oz by end-2026 with record demand and central-bank buying supporting prices.
USDTHB.FOREX · Monetary · Positive SCB expects baht to trade 33.30-33.80 per dollar near term and 32.80-33.80 by year-end, implying a weaker baht outlook.
SCB.BK · Monetary · Neutral SCB strategist quoted on gold and baht forecasts; no company-specific development for SCB X.
YLG Sees Gold Likely to Consolidate, Eyes Fed Rates
YLG Bullion International Company Limited issued its gold price trend analysis report for September 22, 2026, stating that gold prices have still not been able to break through the 4,399-4,403 dollar area, suggesting another consolidation may occur, with first support at 4,343 dollars and then 4,318-4,300 dollars respectively. It recommends opening long positions when prices pull back without breaking below 4,343 dollars; if that level breaks, delay buying until 4,318-4,300 dollars, and cut losses on long positions if prices break below 4,234 dollars. Meanwhile, profit-taking on shorts can be done if prices fail to pass 4,399-4,403 dollars. Yesterday, gold closed down 36.50 dollars after the dollar strengthened, responding to an 88% chance that the US central bank will raise interest rates again in December. Several Fed officials have signaled a more hawkish stance, with Neel Kashkari stating that inflation is too high in many sectors, not limited to oil prices. Alberto Musalem views that the Fed may need to raise rates further to curb inflation from both strong demand and a commodity shock, and pointed out that action should be taken quickly. Austan Goolsbee warned that inflationary pressures may broaden from the effects of tariffs and energy to wider demand, which could force the Fed to accelerate the pace of rate hikes.
GOLD · Monetary · Negative Gold fell $36.50 as the dollar strengthened on hawkish Fed rate-hike expectations, and YLG sees further consolidation.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive Fed officials signal a more hawkish stance and an 88% chance of another December rate hike, implying a higher effective federal funds rate.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive Hawkish Fed commentary and rising December rate-hike odds push Treasury yields higher.
Mainland Gold Institutions Visit Hong Kong for Research to Advance Shanghai-Hong Kong Gold Market Connectivity
Core institutions from the mainland gold industry recently visited Hong Kong for a special research trip, engaging in in-depth discussions with relevant departments of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, gold trading platforms, industry associations, and leading gold enterprises. The focus was on advancing practical cooperation in three major areas: connectivity between the Shanghai and Hong Kong gold markets, the development of Hong Kong as a gold reserve hub, and the international expansion of mainland gold enterprises. On September 22, spot gold briefly surged to 4,376 US dollars in early trading before fluctuating lower, and is currently trading near 4,330 US dollars. As of 1:27 p.m. on September 22, 2026, the Bosera Gold ETF, which tracks the AU9999 index, fell 0.33 percent. The ETF recorded a latest net inflow of 24.9971 million yuan, with net inflows on four of the past five trading days, totaling 87.4253 million yuan and averaging a daily net inflow of 17.4851 million yuan. CICC Wealth Futures believes that sustained optimism in the artificial intelligence sector and large-scale options buying drove the Nasdaq 100 index up 2.8 percent overnight, its biggest single-day gain since August 4. Gold prices fluctuated lower, but the decline in oil prices partially offset the pressure, making short-term gold fluctuations more likely. Southwest Futures noted that the broader trends of deglobalization and de-dollarization are favorable for gold's allocation value and safe-haven appeal, with central bank gold purchases providing support. As central banks continue to increase holdings and gold ETF funds flow back, precious metals are expected to fluctuate higher.
The Gold Traders Association reported intraday gold price adjustments today, 18 September 2026, with the price rising 950 baht from the previous day. The price changed 27 times, with the first adjustment up 400 baht, while the second through the twenty-seventh adjustments moved up or down by 50 baht and 100 baht each time. For gold bars, the buying price stood at 68,850.00 baht and the selling price at 69,050.00 baht. For jewellery gold, the buying price stood at 67,477.16 baht and the selling price at 69,850.00 baht.
Gold Extends Gains to $4,400 as Treasury Yields Retreat
Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains for the second consecutive day on Friday as the pullback in US Treasury yields has offset the negative impact of the hawkish hike delivered by the Federal Reserve (Fed) earlier this week. The metal appreciated to $4,400 as yields retreated.
Venezuela and opposition near deal to transfer $4 billion in gold to the Fed
The Financial Times reports that an agreement between the Venezuelan government and the opposition over the Central Bank of Venezuela's gold reserves is close to being finalised, after the two sides entered final-stage negotiations to transfer gold from the Bank of England to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The gold reserves are worth approximately $4 billion. Under the proposed agreement, the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez would gain the legal right to control the gold, but would not be permitted to sell the reserves immediately. The Financial Times report, citing people familiar with the negotiations, said the gold could be used as collateral for government borrowing to cover various expenses, including rebuilding the country after two major earthquakes in June. The deal would end a seven-year dispute over the gold dating back to 2019, when the United States, Britain and other governments recognised Juan Guaidó, then an opposition politician serving as president of the National Assembly, as Venezuela's legitimate president.
GOLD · · Neutral Venezuela's $4bn gold reserves could be moved to the NY Fed and used as loan collateral, but the article gives no clear supply/demand driver for gold prices.
