CME Group Inc

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 400 points today, buoyed by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields after the release of lackluster employment figures, which is expected to support the Federal Reserve in holding interest rates steady at this month's monetary policy meeting. As of 8:48 p.m. Thailand time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 453.47 points, or 0.89%, at 51,380.03. The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, below analysts' forecast of 89,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The Labor Department also revised August payrolls to an increase of 133,000 from the previously reported gain of 162,000. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 5.570% after earlier surging to its highest level since 2002. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 5.180%, and the 2-year yield fell to 4.730%. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors now assign an 83.9% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, up from just 35.8% a week ago.

Investors have raised their bets that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its October meeting after the release of lackluster employment figures, shifting from earlier expectations of a rate hike this month. The latest FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicates that investors now assign an 83.9% probability to the Fed keeping rates at 3.75-4.00% at the October meeting, up from just 35.8% a week earlier. Meanwhile, investors assign a 16.1% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25%, down from as much as 64.2% a week earlier. The US Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, below analysts' forecast of 89,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while analysts had expected it to hold steady at 4.1%. The Labor Department also revised August payrolls to an increase of 133,000, from an earlier report of 162,000. Average hourly earnings rose 3.0% in September from a year earlier, below analysts' forecast of 3.2%, and edged up 0.1% month on month, below the forecast of 0.3%.

CME Group said its average daily volume rose 22% year over year to 31.8M contracts in September, a record for the month. Third-quarter ADV of 29.4M contracts grew 16% year over year, with both September and Q3 volumes topping prior records set in 2024. For the year to date, ADV of 31.8M contracts increased 12% from a year ago. Within the overall totals, interest rate ADV increased 22% year over year to 16.2M contracts, equity index ADV gained 16% to 8.1M contracts, and energy ADV grew 37% to 3.1M contracts. CME Group stock edged up 0.1% in premarket trading.

Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate hike to December, from an earlier expectation of October, after U.S. inflation data came in below expectations. The personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, one of the inflation gauges the Fed tracks, rose 3.4% year-on-year in August, below economists' forecast of 3.7%. As a result, interest rate futures now reflect roughly a 38% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% in October, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, down from about 51% in Tuesday's trading and nearly 71% a week earlier. Goldman Sachs said in a report that there is a high chance the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, will ultimately conclude that no further rate increases are needed. The Fed has just raised rates in September, its first increase in three years and its first policy move under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed still has time to assess various data before deciding when to raise rates again, and investors are watching the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for September, due to be released this Friday.

Gold prices rebounded today after the release of a lower-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, easing investor concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. As of 11:10 p.m. Thailand time, spot gold was up 9.29 dollars, or 0.22%, at 4,157.81 dollars per ounce, while COMEX gold futures for December delivery rose 7.90 dollars, or 0.19%, to 4,187.60 dollars per ounce. The market also drew support from a weaker dollar and declining US government bond yields, with the 30-year yield falling to 5.578% after surging yesterday to its highest level since 2002, the 10-year yield dropping to 5.217% after hitting its highest since 2007 yesterday, and the 2-year yield easing to 4.827%. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool shows investors now assign a 62.9% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, up from just 49.1% yesterday, and a 37.1% probability to a 0.25% rate hike to 4.00-4.25%, down from 50.9% yesterday. The US Commerce Department reported that the headline PCE index, which includes food and energy, rose 3.4% year-on-year in August, below analysts' forecast of 3.7%, and was up 0.3% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.0% year-on-year, below the forecast of 3.3%, and was up 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50.06 points, or 0.10%, to 51,399.98, supported by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields after the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in below expectations, easing investors' concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that investors now assign a 62.9% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.75-4.00% at its October meeting, up from 49.1% yesterday, while the probability of a 0.25% hike to 4.00-4.25% fell to 37.1% from 50.9% yesterday. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the headline PCE index rose 3.4% year-on-year in August, below the expected 3.7%, and rose 0.3% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4%. The core PCE index rose 3.0% year-on-year, below the expected 3.3%, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 5.578% after surging yesterday to its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year yield fell to 5.217% after hitting its highest since 2007 yesterday, and the 2-year yield fell to 4.827%.

CME Group Inc. announced plans on September 22 to launch Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures on October 19, pending regulatory review. The contracts, offered in standard and Micro sizes of 250 BCH and 25 BCH as well as 10,000 UNI and 1,000 UNI, respond to institutional demand for risk-management tools in high-liquidity altcoins. The launch builds on CME's record first half of 2026, including second-quarter revenue of $1.7 billion and net income of $1.0 billion, or $2.88 per share, driven by 29.8 million average daily contracts and a 20% surge in high-margin market data revenue to $238 million. CME holds $2.3 billion in cash against $3.4 billion in debt, and its $1.4 billion clearing and transaction fee engine stands to capture additional institutional volume from the new listings. The company funded $695 million in share repurchases and $468 million in second-quarter dividends, though the rollout remains subject to regulatory delays and potential margin pressure if open interest in the new contracts lags.

CME Group Inc. announced on September 8 an agreement with the European Energy Exchange to transition EEX's European dairy business to CME Group, marking CME's formal entry into the European dairy derivatives market. Under the deal, EEX will phase out its dairy operations and support the transfer of its key index suite, including European butter and skimmed milk powder indices, to CME Group before the end of 2027. CME plans to launch its own European dairy indices, futures, and options, building on momentum from its U.S. franchise, where open interest reached a record 434,071 contracts on September 1, 2026. The move lets CME capture a European market that accounts for roughly 20% of global cow's milk production and over 30% of global nonfat dry milk exports, much of which currently remains unhedged. The expansion comes as CME reported record first-half 2026 results, including second-quarter revenue of $1.7 billion, net income of $1.1 billion, or $2.99 adjusted EPS, and average daily volume of 29.8 million contracts, alongside $2.3 billion in cash and $1.2 billion in second-quarter adjusted operating income. EEX's existing dairy volume will transition gradually through 2027, so immediate revenue uplift will be modest relative to CME's $1.4 billion in quarterly clearing and transaction fees, and the company carries $3.4 billion in total debt against its $2.3 billion in cash.

Intercontinental Exchange reported second-quarter revenues of $2.67 billion, up 4.8% year on year and 1.7% above analysts' expectations, as the financial exchanges and data sector closed out a satisfactory earnings season. The company, which began as an energy trading platform in 2000 and acquired the New York Stock Exchange in 2013, also posted a decent beat of analysts' EBITDA estimates, and its stock has been flat since reporting, trading at $155.44. Among the 10 financial exchanges and data stocks tracked, Morningstar delivered the best quarter with revenues of $663.2 million, up 9.6% year on year and 2.2% ahead of expectations, though its shares fell 1.2% to $196.28. S&P Global posted the weakest performance against estimates, with revenues of $3.68 billion, up 10.9% year on year but falling 10.4% short of expectations, and its stock dropped 8.4% to $403.05. CME Group reported revenues of $1.71 billion, flat year on year but 1.7% above expectations, with its stock up 11.3% at $264.25, while MarketAxess reported revenues of $218.4 million, flat year on year and 0.8% above expectations, with its stock up 30.6% at $164.18. As a group, the 10 stocks' revenues were in line with consensus estimates, and their share prices have risen 3.3% on average since the latest results.

Webull began offering eligible customers CME Group's nano-sized S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures on September 14, each contract a tenth the size of a Micro E-mini. The launch followed the broker's best quarter ever, reported August 19 for the quarter ended June 30, when revenue reached $198.8 million, up 51% from a year earlier, and trading-related revenue rose 66% to $147.7 million. Total operating expenses grew 13%, swinging the company from a pre-tax loss of $21.4 million a year ago to pre-tax income of $34.7 million. Options volume hit 213 million contracts, up 34% from the prior quarter, and customer assets climbed 79% from a year earlier to $28.5 billion, while registered users rose 13% to 28.2 million and funded accounts grew only 8% to 5.13 million. Webull also launched in Spain, Argentina, and Colombia and is now licensed in 35 markets, though the company has not disclosed how much futures trading contributes to revenue.

US government bond yields climbed today as investors sold off bonds following stronger-than-expected economic data and signals from Federal Reserve officials of a tighter monetary policy stance. As of 10:56 p.m. Thailand time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury stood at 4.200%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was at 5.512%. Fed Governor Michael Barr said he expects the Fed will need to keep raising interest rates to control inflation, noting that the labor market and economic growth remain strong, but inflation is still above the 2% target and there is no clear sign it will return to target within a suitable timeframe. Investors increased their bets that the Fed will raise rates two more times this year after the surge in oil prices and US Treasury yields. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that investors now assign a 66.4% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.00-4.25% at its October meeting, up from 55.4% a week ago, and a 50.3% probability to another 0.25% increase to 4.25-4.50% at its December meeting, up from 41.7% a week ago.

The US dollar continued to strengthen against major currencies in trading on the New York foreign exchange market on Thursday, September 24, buoyed by expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates again this year after several Fed officials signaled support for tighter monetary policy to curb inflation. The dollar index rose 0.15% to 101.28 after the Fed just raised rates by 0.25% at last week's meeting. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said the Fed may need to continue raising rates to bring inflation back to its 2% target, while Fed Board Governor Michael Barr said the Fed needs to keep raising rates, and New York Fed President John Williams said it is reasonable for the Fed to raise rates again before the end of this year. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in a 69% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at the October meeting, up from 55.4% last week, and a 50.3% chance that the Fed will raise rates by another 0.25% to 4.25-4.50% at the December meeting, up from 41.7%. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds surged to 5.440%, the highest since 2004, and the 10-year yield surged to 5.133%, the highest since July 2007. On the latest economic data, the US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 197,000, below the forecast of 201,000, and the US Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 6.4% to 684,000 units in August, above the forecast of 615,000 units.

The dollar index jumped to its highest level in two months after investors increased their bets that the Fed will raise interest rates twice more this year. As of 10:54 p.m. Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.20% at 101.303, after touching 101.310, its highest level since July 29. The dollar rose 0.07% to 1.137 against the euro and strengthened 0.39% to 158.90 yen. The latest FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicates that investors now assign a 66.4% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its October meeting, up from 55.4% last week, and a 50.3% probability to another 0.25% hike to 4.25-4.50% in December, up from 41.7%. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot report shows that 16 of the Fed's 18 officials expect one more rate increase this year. Anna Paulson, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said the Fed may need to continue raising rates to bring inflation back to its 2% target, and Michael Barr, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, said he expects the Fed will need to keep raising rates to control inflation. S&P Global reported that the preliminary composite purchasing managers' index for U.S. manufacturing and services rose to 58.4 in September, a 62-month high, from 56.0 in August.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson said Thursday that she and her colleagues may need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to target. Speaking a week after the Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark borrowing rates by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%, Paulson said some modest further tightening may be warranted if conditions evolve as she expects. She said underlying inflation is still running around 2.5%-3%, well above the Fed's 2% target, and that the gap has shown little signs of closing. Paulson added that economic output has been solid while the labor market is holding steady. Her comments came as markets raised their expectations for Fed tightening, with traders pricing in a 64% chance the FOMC hikes again in October and expecting another move in January, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, while fed funds futures imply a rate of 4.8% by the end of 2027. New York Fed President John Williams said earlier Thursday that he thinks it is reasonable to expect another hike before the end of the year.

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond surged to 5.440%, its highest level since 2004, or in 22 years, amid expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield, the main benchmark for setting rates on mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt, climbed to 5.133%, its highest since July 2007. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to move in line with the Fed's policy rate decisions, remained near its highest level since 2023. Investors are increasingly betting that the Fed will raise rates two more times this year, following the surge in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors assign a 66.4% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to 4.00-4.25% at its October meeting, up from 55.4% a week earlier, and a 50.3% probability to another 0.25% increase to 4.25-4.50% at the December meeting, up from 41.7% a week earlier. The Fed's monetary policy committee, the FOMC, voted unanimously 12-0 to raise short-term rates by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% at its September 16 meeting, in line with market expectations, marking the first increase in more than three years, or since July 2023. Since then, the Fed has cut rates six times, by a total of 1.75%. The Dot Plot report, which shows Fed officials' projections, indicated that 16 of 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year. West Texas Intermediate crude rose above 93 dollars a barrel today, while Brent crude surged past 105 dollars a barrel. Fed Governor Michael Barr said he expects the Fed will need to keep raising rates to control inflation, noting that the labor market and economic growth remain strong, but inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target and there is no clear sign it will return to target within a reasonable timeframe. He added that risks to achieving the inflation target have increased, while risks to the labor market have diminished. Barr made these remarks as S&P Global reported that the preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index for U.S. manufacturing and services rose to 58.4 in September, a 62-month high, from 56.0 in August. At the same time, price pressures increased significantly, reaching their highest level since October 2022.

The Dow futures fell 122 points, or 0.24%, to 51,751 points at 8:10 p.m. Thailand time, pressured by the rebound in oil prices and U.S. government bond yields, while investors increased their expectations for interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The latest FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicates that investors now assign a 66.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.00-4.25% at its October meeting, up from 55.4% last week, and a 50.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates by another 0.25% to a range of 4.25-4.50% at its December meeting, up from 41.7%. The Dot Plot report shows that 16 of the Fed's 18 officials expect one more rate hike this year. West Texas Intermediate crude rose above 93 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude surged past 105 dollars per barrel, while the yield on 30-year U.S. government bonds climbed to its highest level in 22 years. Meanwhile, the New York Stock Exchange confirmed that Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will ring the Opening Bell at the NYSE today, September 24, at 9:26 a.m. U.S. time, which corresponds to 8:26 p.m. Thailand time. Anutin is the third Thai prime minister to be honored with ringing the bell at the NYSE, following Abhisit Vejjajiva, who rang the closing bell on September 23, 2009, and Srettha Thavisin, who rang the opening bell on September 22, 2023.

New York gold futures closed lower on Wednesday, September 23, after several U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled support for raising interest rates to curb inflation. COMEX December gold fell $58, or 1.33%, to close at $4,318.40 an ounce. The dollar index rose 0.5%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds climbed to its highest level in 19 years. The stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold futures more expensive and less attractive to investors holding other currencies, while the surge in bond yields raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the Fed needs to continue raising interest rates to control inflation, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both signaled the need for further rate hikes. Most recently, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors are pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its October meeting and a 95% probability for the December meeting.

Bitcoin Cash surged toward $350, one of its biggest daily moves in months, after spending most of September stuck between $220 and $260. CME Group announced plans to launch regulated Bitcoin Cash futures in October, a clear fundamental catalyst behind the move, in contrast to many sudden altcoin pumps.

Bitcoin pulled back Wednesday, sliding toward $84,000 after touching a seven-month high near $87,250 earlier in the week, while traders rotated into two of its forks. Bitcoin Cash jumped as much as 30% after CME Group said Monday it will launch Bitcoin Cash futures on Oct. 19, pending regulatory review, making BCH the exchange's tenth single-asset crypto contract with Uniswap as the eleventh; standard contracts will represent 250 BCH and micro versions 25 BCH. Grayscale added fuel by filing to convert its Bitcoin Cash Trust into a spot ETF for NYSE Arca listing, briefly pushing BCH's weekly gain past 50% as it tore through $340 and touched $358. Bitcoin SV rode the same current, gaining roughly 20% and extending its climb toward $21, an annual high, with open interest in BSV derivatives climbing alongside the price. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $715 million on Tuesday even as the coin's own price stalled.

Billionaire value investor Seth Klarman's Baupost Group opened three new positions in the second quarter, according to its latest 13F filing. The largest is CME Group Inc., where the fund bought 619,000 shares worth about $136.69 million, giving the exchange operator 2.52% of Baupost's 13F portfolio. Baupost also picked up 1,274,356 shares of Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. worth roughly $43.61 million, or 0.81% of the portfolio, and 392,000 shares of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. worth about $12.88 million, or 0.24%. CME's revenue rose about 1% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, while adjusted earnings per share also rose 1%, a modest gain the article attributes to a difficult comparison with an exceptionally strong second quarter a year earlier. CME open interest rose 8% year over year to 127 million contracts in the quarter, and the company plans to launch Treasury Link, which is intended to connect cash Treasury and futures trading more directly. CME trades at a forward non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio of 22.42x, nearly double the sector median of 11.30x, and a forward non-GAAP PEG ratio of 3.28x versus a sector median of 1.07x.

CME Group Inc. launched its E-mini Equity Factor futures on Sept. 21, expanding its equity derivatives franchise beyond broad-market exposure into more targeted investment strategies. The contracts cover E-mini S&P 500 Growth, Value, Quality, Momentum and Low Volatility futures, along with E-mini Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 futures, giving institutional investors tools to hedge or adjust portfolios without trading the underlying securities. The new contracts are eligible for margin offsets with other cleared CME equity products, which could improve capital efficiency and encourage cross-product trading. The launch builds on the company's June debut of four new E-mini Equity Index futures, part of a broader push to expand its benchmark suite. The contracts are available on CME Globex and through privately negotiated transactions, including block trades, derived futures blocks and BTIC transactions. For CME, the opportunity will depend on adoption and liquidity, with higher trading activity and open interest potentially generating additional transaction and clearing revenue.

Bank of America is holding to its forecast for two more Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, but warns that even 75 basis points of additional tightening may not be enough to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. In a client note obtained by TheStreet, BofA said it continues to call for two more quarter-point hikes in October and December, following the Fed's unanimous 12-0 FOMC decision on Sept. 16 to raise the benchmark Federal Funds Rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. The quarterly dot plot released the same day showed a median year-end funds rate of 3.6%, consistent with one additional 25-basis-point hike, and 16 of 18 participating policymakers anticipate at least one more increase before the end of the year. BofA said underlying inflation has been stuck around 2.5% for several quarters because policy isn't tight enough, and that the resilience of the economy changes the Fed's risk/reward calculus, backing Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance. The bank cautioned that persistent supply shocks from the Iran conflict could force the Fed to choose between an extended inflation overshoot and a hard landing, with CME Group FedWatch showing a 55.4% probability of a quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 and an 89.6% chance of at least one more hike by Dec. 9.

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its October 27-28 meeting, an abrupt pivot from just days ago. Chief Economist David Mericle said in a note obtained by TheStreet that the revised forecast follows the Fed's unanimous 12-0 decision on Sept. 16, which lifted the benchmark Federal Funds Rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. The quarterly dot plot released the same day showed a median year-end funds rate of 3.6%, consistent with one additional 25-basis-point hike from the current midpoint, with sixteen of 18 participating policymakers anticipating at least one more increase this year. Goldman called the meeting more hawkish than expected, citing the 16-2 majority projecting at least one more hike, a median neutral rate dot that rose from 3.06% to 3.25%, and Chairman Kevin Warsh describing the move three times as having removed a dose of accommodation. Goldman kept its terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.25-3.5%, while the CME Group FedWatch Tool puts the odds of another quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 at 53.1% and at least one additional hike by Dec. 9 at 87.5%.

The dollar index traded in a narrow range ahead of the release of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting results tonight. As of 10:47 p.m. Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.08% at 99.693, while the dollar rose 0.03% to 1.154 against the euro and weakened 0.07% to 154.97 yen. Markets are watching the meeting outcome, as well as remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the policy rate projections known as the Dot Plot, and US economic forecasts including gross domestic product, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Most recently, the FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicated that investors assign a 92.7% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4% at today's meeting, and a 7.3% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady. If the Fed raises rates as expected today, it would be the first hike since July 2023, and since then the Fed has cut rates six times by a total of 1.75%. A month ago, investors assigned only a 36% probability that the Fed would raise rates at the September 16 meeting, as the market expected inflation figures to ease. However, after Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at the Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole that pointed to tighter monetary policy, market expectations about the Fed's rate path began to shift. Meanwhile, economists at Morgan Stanley said the firm has changed its forecast from expecting no rate hikes this year to expecting two hikes, one on September 16 and another in December. Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said the most important reason is that the slowdown in inflation is still not happening fast enough to give the Fed confidence that inflation will return to 2%. Brent Wilsey, chief investment officer of Wilsey Asset Management, said that if the Fed holds rates steady today, it could surprise the stock market and could damage the Fed's credibility. Jonathan Pryor, co-head of foreign exchange trading at Marex, said the Fed is entering a new phase of monetary policy.

Wall Street stocks moved lower ahead of the US central bank's interest rate decision, which is expected to mark the start of a new rate-hiking cycle. As of 9:21 p.m. Thailand time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 168.18 points, or 0.32%, at 51,924.93. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are pricing in a 92.7% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4% at today's meeting, and a 7.3% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady. If the Fed raises rates as expected today, it would be the first hike since July 2023, and since then the Fed has cut rates six times, by a total of 1.75%. A month ago, investors assigned only a 36% probability to a Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting. Economists at Morgan Stanley have revised their forecast from expecting no rate hikes this year to expecting two increases, one on September 16 and another in December. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, said inflation is still not slowing fast enough to give the Fed confidence that it can return to 2% within an appropriate timeframe.

Wall Street stock markets expect the US central bank to raise its policy interest rate at tonight's meeting to address inflation that remains above the 2% target. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign a 92.7% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4%, and a 7.3% probability to holding rates steady. If this plays out as expected, it will be the first rate hike since July 2023, after which the Fed cut rates 6 times for a total of 1.75%. A month ago, investors assigned only a 36% probability that the Fed would raise rates at the September 16 meeting, but expectations shifted after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a tightening stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, alongside disappointing inflation data, a stronger labor market, and crude oil prices surging above 100 dollars per barrel. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley economists revised their forecast from previously expecting no rate hike this year to expecting 2 hikes, one on September 16 and another in December. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, stated that inflation is still not slowing fast enough to give the Fed confidence that inflation will return to 2% within an appropriate timeframe.

COMEX gold futures for December delivery closed down $19.10, or 0.44%, at $4,332.80 an ounce on Tuesday, September 15, in New York. The market was pressured by a stronger dollar and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 5.041%, its highest level in 19 years, or since 2007. The dollar index rose 0.23% to 99.616. Sharply higher crude oil prices also fueled inflation concerns, with WTI crude jumping 4.38% and Brent crude rising 2.90% after reports that crude loadings were suspended at the Yanbu port, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil export hub. As a result, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed investors pricing in a 94.5% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% after today's meeting concludes, in a bid to counter inflation driven by the oil price surge.

CME Group announced that its S&P UBS USD Liquid Leveraged Loan Index futures began trading on September 14, 2026. The new contracts track the S&P UBS index and offer a centrally cleared, capital-efficient tool for relative value trading, according to the Chicago-based derivatives marketplace. Ted Carey, Executive Director of Rates and OTC Products at CME Group, said the futures give institutions risk management tools beyond investment grade and high-yield markets, with cross-margining benefits within a single clearing house. Cameron Drinkwater, Chief Product and Operations Officer at S&P Dow Jones Indices, called it the first-of-its-kind exchange-traded futures contract linked to a transparent and representative leveraged loan benchmark. CME Group credit futures launched in June 2024, and since then over 1.5 million contracts have traded across the complex, with open interest exceeding $2 billion in September 2026. The contracts can provide automatic margin offsets against CME Group's interest rate and equity futures, part of the $95 billion in daily efficiencies the company delivers to clients across asset classes, and are available to trade on CME Globex and eligible for submission to clearing via CME ClearPort.

The Federal Reserve's September policy meeting began Tuesday at 10:30 AM ET, with markets overwhelmingly expecting the central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points when it issues its decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Such a move would be the Fed's first increase in the fed funds rate since 2023, when the Jerome Powell-led central bank concluded its post-pandemic hiking campaign. Inflation has now remained above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, with the war in the Middle East serving as the latest driver of higher prices. As Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole Symposium speech in August, "We have work to do." Traders were pricing in a roughly 92.7% chance of a hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, though a hold isn't entirely off the table. Markets will also scrutinize the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot, for clues about monetary policy in the next few years.

Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week, with CME Group's FedWatch tool putting an 87% chance on a quarter-point hike at the FOMC meeting ending Sept. 16, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4% from 3.5% to 3.75%. The market also expects another quarter-point hike at the December meeting, as inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target since February 2021, a stretch of 66 straight months. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in August that responsibility for sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. History offers a warning: the Fed has initiated only three rate-hike cycles in the last 25 years, and after the first hike in each cycle the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones have on average suffered double-digit losses at some point in the following three months, with average maximum drawdowns of 11%, 17% and 10% respectively. The U.S. stock market has still had a strong year, with the S&P 500 up 12%, the Nasdaq Composite up 13% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 9% year to date, driven by massive spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The dollar index surged to its highest level in two weeks, supported by safe-haven buying of the dollar amid Middle East conflict that pushed oil prices sharply higher. At 12:46 a.m. Thailand time, the dollar index was up 0.32% at 99.437, after touching 99.590, its highest since September 2. The dollar rose 0.37% to 1.156 against the euro and strengthened 0.55% to 154.39 yen. Supporting factors also included warnings from the CEO of a leading AI company about the potential dangers of artificial intelligence, which weighed on stock markets, and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated that investors priced in a 90.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% at its September 16 meeting, and a 9.7% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady. West Texas crude oil jumped above 103 dollars per barrel and Brent crude topped 108 dollars per barrel after Saudi Arabia announced the closure of the East-West Pipeline amid attacks by the Houthi group. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points on selling pressure in artificial intelligence-related stocks.

Markets now assign a 90.7% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, a sharp reversal from expectations at the start of 2026 for a third cut of the year. A Reuters September 14 poll found 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise its target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Inflation has remained 140 basis points above the Fed's 2% target, with August headline CPI up 3.4% year over year, core CPI up 2.4%, and PPI up 5.4%, while Brent crude reached $107.82 and West Texas Intermediate hit $102.82 after renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The August employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, versus just 21,000 in July and a 12-month average of 30,900, removing the justification for tolerating higher inflation. The July meeting left rates unchanged, though three policymakers preferred a quarter-point increase, and the next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16. Reuters' September 14 economist poll found many expect at least one additional hike by March 2027, with the 10-year Treasury yield recently approaching 5% and the 30-year yield above 5.3%.

Webull announced that eligible customers will gain access to CME Group's E-nano S&P 500 and E-nano Nasdaq-100 futures, expanding the platform's futures offering with smaller-sized contracts. The CME Nano Futures are ultra-small equity index contracts sized at one-tenth of comparable CME Micro E-mini futures, allowing investors to take positions with less notional exposure and potentially lower dollar margin requirements. Anthony Denier, Group President and U.S. CEO of Webull, said the addition reflects the company's vision of evolving alongside individual investors, while Tanmay Sheth, FCM Product Head for Futures and Prediction Markets at Webull, said the launch gives customers a more accessible way to participate in major equity index markets. Eligible customers with an approved Webull futures account can trade the contracts alongside existing futures products using the same tools, subject to applicable account, margin, risk and jurisdictional requirements. CME Nano Futures are expected to be available to eligible Webull customers in mid-September.

Nasdaq, NYSE Arca and Cboe EDGX plan to extend US equities trading to 23 hours a day, five days a week beginning Dec. 6, subject to final SEC approval. Seeking Alpha analysts Luca Socci and Jack Bowman weighed the pros and cons of near-continuous trading. Socci said the shift toward a 24-hour market is a matter of when, not if, arguing that more activity will be regulated and exchange structures will improve, that non-US residents will see the time-zone mismatch reduced, and that price discovery could become more continuous, narrowing gaps at the opening bell. He cautioned that longer hours do not necessarily mean more liquidity and that companies will have to figure out how to release earnings while the market is open, noting Berkshire's Saturday reporting strategy could find followers. Bowman said the main benefit for retail investors is no longer being bound to traditional market hours, but warned overnight demand is thin outside institutions and that spreading liquidity across 23 hours will fragment it further. Both flagged exchanges as beneficiaries, with Socci naming Cboe Global Markets, Nasdaq, Intercontinental Exchange, Equinix, Digital Realty Trust, Broadridge Financial Solutions and Virtu Financial, while Bowman cited Nasdaq, the NYSE, Cboe Global Markets and CME, expecting derivatives volume to rise as cross-security hedging becomes more viable.

The dollar weakened against major currencies, in line with the decline in US government bond yields, after the release of the August consumer price index. At 9:49 pm Thailand time, the dollar index was down 0.03% at 99.017, while the dollar weakened 0.01% to 1.161 against the euro and fell 0.53% to 153.56 yen. The US Labor Department reported that headline CPI, which includes food and energy, rose 3.4% year on year, in line with analysts' expectations, after also rising 3.4% in July, and rose 0.4% month on month, in line with expectations, after rising 0.1% in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.4% year on year, in line with expectations, after rising 2.5% in July, but rose 0.3% month on month, above analysts' expectations of 0.2%, after rising 0.2% in July. However, investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at next week's meeting, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating that investors assign an 85.8% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% at its September 16 meeting, up from 72.4% yesterday, and a 14.2% probability to the Fed holding rates at 3.50-3.75% at the September 16 meeting, down from 27.6% yesterday.