Bitcoin

The number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 1 BTC fell by about 14,000 between September 16 and October 1, dropping from roughly 985,000 to about 971,000. The data, reported by CoinGlass, suggests holders may have sold or reassessed their positions as the price rose nearly 50% from its August 19 level to approach 87,300 dollars. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about 2.9 billion dollars between September 17 and 30, with another 134.4 million dollars flowing in during the first two business days of October. U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September, released on October 2, rose by 29,000 from the previous month, far below the market forecast of 90,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.1% month over month, strengthening the view to 85% that the Federal Reserve will hold policy rates steady at its October 28 meeting. Bitcoin, however, remained below 85,000 dollars and was unable to clearly break through and hold above 86,000 dollars.

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has approved an additional $138 million loan for El Salvador, even though the country has not fully met the criteria related to Bitcoin. The disbursement is part of the Extended Fund Facility program between the IMF and El Salvador, a long-term financial assistance framework agreed upon earlier. The latest approval reflects that the institution is continuing to provide support under the program even as El Salvador's Bitcoin policy remains a concern. The IMF had previously set conditions requiring Salvadoran authorities to limit the risks from holding Bitcoin and to reduce the use of the Chivo Wallet. This news was reported by EFINANCE Thai news agency.

The average unrealized gain for Bitcoin short-term holders has narrowed from 15.4% the previous week to 13.7%. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. published the analysis on the 1st. The cause of the contraction lies not in price but in a rising cost basis: the realized price for short-term holders rose 1.2% over the week from September 24, climbing from $72,800 to $73,700. Meanwhile, the realized price for long-term holders fell 0.3% over the same week, from $48,900 to $48,800, which Adler characterized as one of the fastest weekly declines since the start of 2026. He noted that Bitcoin is trading above the cost basis for both holder groups, and said that if the price begins rising faster than the cost basis, the profit cushion will expand.

HANetf, a London-based asset management platform, has listed Exchange-Traded Commodities, or ETCs, that track Bitcoin while hedging against swings in the pound sterling and the euro against the US dollar, with HSBC acting as the currency hedging provider, HANetf said in an emailed statement on Wednesday. The Arrow Bitcoin GBP Hedged ETC, or GBTC, is listed on the London Stock Exchange, while its euro-denominated counterpart, EBTC, is listed on the Xetra market in Frankfurt and on Euronext Paris. HANetf said this is the world's first currency-hedged crypto ETC, bringing a new hedging structure to Europe's crypto ETC market. These products are designed to address the fact that Bitcoin is priced almost entirely in US dollars worldwide, leaving investors in Europe and elsewhere exposed to dollar risk. Currency-hedged Gold ETCs are already an asset class worth 23 billion dollars, accounting for roughly 13% of Europe's Gold ETC market, with HANetf offering products hedged in euros, pounds and Swiss francs.

Analysts say Bitcoin is facing a key support level at $82,000, which will determine its next direction, whether up or down, after the price surged to a peak above $87,400 on September 21 and then pulled back to test the $82,000 to $83,000 zone. Jeff Anderson, head of the U.S. division at STS Digital, said the $82,000 level is the support to watch, pointing to a Double Top pattern at that level, and warned that a break below support would likely send the price sliding back to the late $70,000 range. Meanwhile, Lexi Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, sees the $81,500 to $83,000 zone as especially important, and a loss of that support is one of three warning signs she is watching, along with ETF fund flows turning negative for several consecutive sessions and 10-year government bond yields still rising. Ilya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, places support slightly lower, saying a sustained break below $80,000 would indicate the market is not ready to push prices higher for some time, but if momentum returns, it could easily send the price above $90,000. Anderson said the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, or PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be the compass for the market's next move.

The odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October have reversed course entirely after New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need to rush another rate hike, with the probability of a 25 basis point increase falling from more than 70% to around 44%. Speaking at a lecture at the University at Buffalo, Williams said the Fed's unanimous decision last month to raise rates to a range of 3.75% to 4% gives policymakers enough time to assess incoming economic data before taking their next step. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows the odds of an October hike have fallen to about 44.8%, while the market, including traders on the Kalshi platform, has shifted toward holding rates steady, with that probability rising to 55.2%. However, signals from the Fed are not all pointing in the same direction. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the central bank has been knocked off course by strong AI demand and higher oil prices, suggesting policy may need to be rebalanced. Williams also expects another rate hike later this year if the economy follows his projections, and expects inflation to reach 3.5% by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at 2.95 trillion dollars, barely changed over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for 1.67 trillion dollars and a market share of 56.62%. Roughly 13,800 BTC was transferred out of Binance, the largest single-day net outflow since 2023, and Bitcoin is trading below 83,213 dollars. Spot trading volume in altcoins reached nearly four times that of Bitcoin, while Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal index climbed above 81.

Strategy moved roughly $297M in Bitcoin on Tuesday, sparking questions over whether Michael Saylor's company was selling, but on-chain analysis indicates the transfer was a wallet reshuffle rather than a sale. Lookonchain reported on X that Strategy moved 3.57K Bitcoin, just a day after it bought another 1.67K BTC for $142.7M, taking its holdings to 847.67K BTC. The receiving addresses were identified as part of Fidelity's custody system, suggesting the movement was internal rather than a reduction in Strategy's Bitcoin position. Bitcoin recovered to about $84.5K before settling near $83.9K, while Strategy stock traded around $156.51, down roughly 3% over the week, and BTC liquidations stood at about $68M over 24 hours, split almost evenly between longs and shorts. The transfer appears consistent with Saylor's description of Bitcoin as digital capital, MSTR as digital equity, and STRC as digital credit, rather than an exit from the treasury.

Analysts at institutional market maker Wintermute say the local altcoin rally could stall if Bitcoin fails to hold its recent breakout at $82,500. The firm's assessment ties the fate of XRP and other altcoins directly to whether Bitcoin can sustain that level. Should Bitcoin lose the breakout, the broader altcoin advance would be at risk, according to Wintermute.