Ethereum is the leading smart-contract platform, often described as a foundational "world computer" on which most of DeFi, stablecoins, and NFTs are built. Its token ETH is used to pay for computation, known as "gas." Since Ethereum moved to proof-of-stake, ETH can be staked to secure the network and earn yield, making it both infrastructure and a productive asset.
Ethereum mixed: institutional adoption grows but outflows and risks weigh
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Institutional adoption expands Morgan Stanley filed for an Ethereum ETF, zerohash launched bank staking, and UBS tested compliance-ready use. Analysts see ETH undervalued with a $10,000 target. These moves could bring more mainstream money into Ethereum.
Shows growing institutional interest, a key demand driver.
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Upgrades and clearer rules ahead Upcoming Glamsterdam upgrades and clearer SEC/CFTC rules should reduce uncertainty. This could make Ethereum more attractive to builders and investors by lowering regulatory and technical risks.
Highlights future catalysts that may boost confidence.
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Heavy selling and outflows BlackRock sold over $610 million in crypto, ETFs saw $6.35 billion in outflows, and ETH is down 63% from its high with ~0.9% annual supply inflation. This selling pressure weighs on price.
Directly explains recent price weakness and negative sentiment.
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Governance and security concerns The Ethereum Foundation cut 20% of staff amid governance backlash. BitMine's near-5% stake raises concentration risk, while DeFi hacks caused $840 million in losses and TVL remains below 2021 peaks.
These issues undermine trust and could deter users and investors.
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Ethereum rises on ETF inflows, tech upgrades, and weak jobs data
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Ethereum ETFs attract $835 million in seven-session inflow streak US spot Ethereum ETFs pulled in about $835 million over seven straight sessions, with more money flowing in than out. This steady buying removes coins from the market and signals growing institutional demand, which supports ETH's price.
This is a major new driver of demand that directly pushes ETH's price up.
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Ethereum sets October 6 test for Glamsterdam upgrade Ethereum will test the Glamsterdam upgrade on October 6, a key step before it goes live on the main network. The upgrade aims to make Ethereum faster and cheaper to use, which could attract more users and support long-term demand and price.
This is a new technology milestone that could boost Ethereum's usefulness and demand.
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Weak US jobs data eases Fed rate hike fears The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below expectations, and unemployment rose. This makes further Fed rate hikes less likely, which is good for risky assets like Ethereum because it keeps money flowing into crypto instead of safer bonds.
This is a new macroeconomic shift that improves the outlook for ETH by reducing rate hike pressure.
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Citigroup raises Ethereum forecast to $3,028 Citigroup lifted its 12-month Ethereum price target to $3,028 from $2,240, citing renewed market momentum and ETF inflows. A major bank's bullish call can boost investor confidence and attract more buyers, pushing ETH's price up.
This is a new analyst upgrade that can influence investor sentiment and demand.
Q3 2026
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Ethereum rose on record ETF inflows and institutional buying, but macro and regulatory risks capped gains.
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Record ETF inflows and institutional buying Ethereum ETFs saw record inflows, BlackRock bought $250M, and BitMine accumulated nearly 5% of supply. This drove an August rally above $2,300 and improved legitimacy.
This point explains the main positive force behind Ethereum's price increase during the quarter.
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Regulatory progress and tech upgrades Regulatory progress in Japan, Russia, and the U.S., plus tech upgrades, boosted confidence. Citigroup set a $3,028 target, signaling growing mainstream acceptance.
This point highlights new regulatory and technological developments that supported Ethereum's price.
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Macro headwinds and regulatory setbacks Fed rate hikes, tariffs, Middle East tensions, bond yields above 5%, and the failed CLARITY Act weighed on Ethereum. These factors increased uncertainty and pressured prices.
This point captures the key negative forces that limited Ethereum's gains during the quarter.
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Supply inflation and ETF outflows ETH supply inflation continued, and ETFs saw $1.11B in outflows. Weak Layer-2 fee capture and the EIP-8361/8363 debate threatened staking rewards, adding selling pressure.
This point explains the persistent supply and demand imbalances that held back Ethereum's price.
News & notes movingETH-USD.CC
United States
Digital Finance & Tokenization▲
SEC Approves First 3x Leveraged Crypto ETPs as Bitcoin Holds Near $85,000
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday approved a Cboe BZX rule change allowing the exchange to list six triple-leveraged exchange-traded products from Volatility Shares, a first-of-its-kind step that could expand leveraged exposure to the world's largest cryptocurrency. The products target three times the daily performance of bitcoin, ether, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas, with the bitcoin and ether products providing leveraged exposure through futures rather than directly holding the cryptocurrencies. The decision does not mean the products are immediately available for trading, as registration requirements must still be completed before shares can be publicly offered. Bitcoin traded at $84,860.5 as of 01:29 ET, little changed over the past 24 hours, after briefly climbing above $87,000 earlier in the week. The approval adds another potential route for investors seeking cryptocurrency exposure after the SEC separately proposed changes to crypto custody rules this week, a proposal that was a major focus for Bitcoin markets on Friday.
Citi Lifts Bitcoin Forecast to $113,000 as Fed Pause Bets Build
Citi analyst Alex Saunders raised his base-case price forecast for bitcoin to $113,000 from $82,000. The token hovered near $85,000 on Friday as bond yields briefly eased and seasonal trends turned supportive, with ether also rising as strategists pointed to signs of a bullish trend for cryptocurrencies. Fundstrat head of digital assets Sean Farrell said seasonality is becoming a tailwind, noting October has historically been crypto's strongest month with around an 80% win rate, and that the setup shifted in a bullish direction over the past couple of days. Federal Reserve rhetoric has become somewhat more measured, and a weak jobs report has reduced expectations for further rate hikes, with more than 75% of market participants now expecting policymakers to hold rates steady at their October meeting. Farrell cautioned that continued stress in sovereign bonds and credit could lead to a short-term drawdown in crypto, but said the more stress priced in without breaking bitcoin, the better the forward risk/reward becomes, and pointed to a recent decline in 2-year real yields that could support the token by reducing the appeal of short-term government debt.
BTC · Monetary · Positive Citi lifted its bitcoin forecast to $113,000 as weak jobs data and measured Fed rhetoric cut rate-hike expectations, easing yields.
C · Capital · Positive Citi analyst Alex Saunders raised his base-case bitcoin price forecast to $113,000 from $82,000.
ETH · Monetary · Positive Ether rose alongside bitcoin as strategists pointed to a bullish crypto trend amid easing yields and Fed pause bets.
Fundstrat Global Advisors · · Neutral Fundstrat's Sean Farrell is quoted on crypto seasonality and risk/reward, but the firm is only a commentary source, not a subject of the news.
US Adds Just 29,000 Jobs in September as SEC Proposes Crypto Custody Rules
The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations of 89,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% against an expected 4.1%, a miss that host Scott Melker said weakens the case for further Fed rate hikes and points toward cuts. Prior months were revised sharply lower, with July cut by 31,000 to 10,000 and August by 29,000 to 133,000, leaving combined employment 60,000 lower than previously reported, and wage growth slowed to 0.1% monthly and 3% annually. Separately, the SEC proposed dedicated custody rules that would let registered investment advisors, investment funds and business development companies hold crypto assets directly under federal securities law, with state-chartered trust companies able to serve as permitted crypto custodians and client assets segregated from the trust company's own assets. In other news, Fiserv launched the Roughrider stablecoin, a bank-to-bank settlement token on Solana serving a North Dakota network of more than 90 banks and credit unions, and the Ethereum Foundation launched zero-knowledge APIs, built with the Open Anonymity Project, that let users pay for AI models without revealing identity. Near Intents was hit by a 3.8 million dollar exploit, with no customer funds lost, and another Trump meme coin dinner was advertised for top token investors.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Payments Modernization & Rails ▲Regulation
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Stablecoin Issuers & Distribution Regulation
FISV · Technology · Positive Fiserv launched the Roughrider stablecoin, a bank-to-bank settlement token on Solana for a North Dakota network of 90+ banks and credit unions.
ETH · Technology · Positive The Ethereum Foundation launched zero-knowledge APIs with the Open Anonymity Project enabling private AI-model payments.
SOL · Technology · Positive Solana is the blockchain chosen for Fiserv's new Roughrider bank-to-bank settlement stablecoin.
Ethereum Foundation launches zkAPI for anonymous AI payments on mainnet
The Ethereum Foundation launched zkAPI on Thursday, a system that lets users pay for AI models and other pay-per-use APIs without revealing who they are. It was developed together with the Open Anonymity Project and is now live on the Ethereum mainnet. To use it, users deposit tokens such as ETH or USDC into a vault contract on Ethereum, which records the balance as a private note. Client-side software generates a Zero-Knowledge Proof to show that a request is backed by a funded note without revealing which note it is. The zkAPI server verifies this and issues a temporary API key with a capped spending limit, then deducts usage from the private balance when the key expires. A Nullifier serial number is published every time a payment is made to prevent double-spending. The system does not provide network-level privacy, since the gateway may link requests from a static IP address and sessions may be re-linked through prompt content. The GitHub repository notes that the protocol is still experimental. zkAPI puts into practice the ZK API Usage Credits concept, a design by Davide Crapis and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published on the Ethereum Research forum on February 11. Crapis leads the foundation's dAI team, which was set up in September 2025, and the team also developed ERC-8004, a standard for AI agent identity that launched on mainnet in January. The blog post announcing zkAPI was written by Vittorio Rivabella of the dAI team.
Crypto Rises Even as Clarity Act Fails; Bitwise Praises SEC's New Approach
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset manager Bitwise, wrote in a September 30 blog post about why crypto assets rose despite the stalling of the Clarity Act. On September 15, the U.S. Senate voted 49 to 50 against ending debate on a motion to proceed with the bill, after which Bitcoin rose 8% and Ethereum gained 7%. The bill's final wording would have barred exchanges and others from paying stablecoin interest to customers and imposed fines of up to 5 million dollars per violation, but with the bill effectively dead, the GENIUS Act, which regulates only issuers, remains in place, allowing Coinbase and others to keep offering rewards. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a five-year "innovation exemption" on September 17 permitting on-chain trading of tokenized U.S. equities, and on September 25 it stated that for a functioning network, merely announcing a token buyback does not by itself establish that the token is a security. Hougan acknowledged the risk that a change of administration in January 2029 could lead the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to alter course, but concluded that crypto "got better rules faster at the expense of long-term certainty."
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Stablecoin Issuers & Distribution ▲Regulation
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Real-World Asset Tokenization ▲Regulation
BTC · Regulation · Positive Bitcoin rose 8% after the Senate killed the Clarity Act, as crypto got better rules faster.
ETH · Regulation · Positive Ethereum gained 7% after the Clarity Act failed and the SEC issued favorable token/innovation guidance.
COIN · Regulation · Positive With the Clarity Act dead, the GENIUS Act remains in place, letting Coinbase keep offering stablecoin rewards.
Bitwise Asset Management · · Neutral Bitwise's CIO is quoted analyzing why crypto rose despite the Clarity Act stalling, but no company-specific impact is stated.
Citigroup Raises 12-Month Bitcoin Forecast to $113,000
Citigroup has raised its 12-month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, CoinDesk reported on October 1. In a report dated September 30, Citi lifted its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000, and also revised its Ethereum forecast upward to $3,028 from $2,240. The bank cited increased activity in the crypto market, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and renewed inflows into ETFs as reasons. Citi expects that as advisors and brokers gradually increase their allocations to Bitcoin, inflows into ETFs and similar products will continue steadily, though more gradually than before, and it anticipates $5 billion of inflows over the next 12 months. On the regulatory front, Citi noted that while the U.S. Senate rejected a procedural vote 49 to 50 on September 15 to begin consideration of the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act, the Securities and Exchange Commission subsequently issued a series of rules, easing pessimistic sentiment in the market. Citi also pointed out that momentum in the crypto market has recovered, helped by a weaker dollar after the U.S. Treasury expanded buybacks of long-term government bonds.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs See About 1 Trillion Yen in Net Inflows in Q3, Reversing Q2 Outflows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about 6.34 billion dollars in the third quarter of 2026, roughly 982.7 billion yen. According to SoSoValue data, July brought 172 million dollars, August 3.52 billion dollars, and September 2.65 billion dollars, a sharp reversal from net outflows of about 5 billion dollars in the second quarter and the strongest quarter of the year. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin rose 42.71% during the quarter, its biggest gain since the fourth quarter of 2024 and its best third-quarter performance since 2017. However, on September 30 it saw net outflows of about 149 million dollars, ending a nine-session streak of net inflows that had gathered about 3.1 billion dollars. Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs attracted about 3.05 billion dollars in net inflows during the quarter, and Ethereum rose about 71% over the period, its largest third-quarter gain on record. Total net assets of spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached 107.98 billion dollars. In Japan, crypto ETFs are not yet permitted, but following the revised Financial Instruments and Exchange Act enacted in July 2026, they are reportedly expected to be allowed as early as 2028.
BTC · Demand · Positive US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $6.34B in Q3 net inflows, reversing Q2 outflows, with Bitcoin up 42.71% in the quarter.
ETH · Demand · Positive Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted about $3.05B in Q3 net inflows and Ethereum rose about 71%, its largest third-quarter gain on record.
Sucuri Warns of Persistent WordPress Malware Using Ethereum for Command-and-Control
Security firm Sucuri has identified a dangerously persistent WordPress malware strain that relies on Ethereum infrastructure for command-and-control. The malware, according to Sucuri, refuses to die, with its use of Ethereum powering the command-and-control channel that makes it so resilient. Sucuri's findings detail the strain's persistence and its reliance on the blockchain network to direct infected WordPress sites. The security firm did not disclose the number of affected sites or the malware's origin.
ETH · · Neutral Ethereum is mentioned only as the blockchain infrastructure used by malware for command-and-control, with no stated impact on Ethereum's own value or network.
MetaMask announced it is responding to a security incident affecting some of its infrastructure and has withdrawn from the affected staking validators as a precautionary measure. In a Wednesday update, MetaMask said it is handling the threat internally, working with external partners and security advisors, but did not disclose details of the issue, and confirmed that no direct threat to MetaMask wallets has been found. The precautionary measure covers validators within its self-custodial staking operations. Lido disclosed that MetaMask Staking has begun precautionary procedures to protect customer assets tied to active Ethereum validators, including withdrawing Ether validators from the Lido protocol on Wednesday, with the last batch of affected validators expected to be fully withdrawn by the end of October 7. Will Shannon, a developer at Lido Finance, said ETH withdrawn from validators operated by MetaMask Staking is expected to return to the protocol gradually in sequence as the relevant validators complete the withdrawal cycle, exit, and re-entry, which is estimated to take up to about 45 days due to longer entry queues.
ETH · Regulation · Neutral MetaMask withdrew Ethereum validators from Lido protocol amid a security incident, a precautionary operational/security action affecting staking infrastructure rather than a clear directional driver for ETH.
Ethereum ETFs See $835 Million Net Inflow Ahead of Glamsterdam's Sepolia Launch
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $17.1 million in net inflows on September 28, extending their consecutive inflow streak to seven trading sessions, with cumulative net inflows reaching about $835 million and the $850 million mark now in sight. The seven-session streak includes a $143.7 million inflow on September 18, followed by inflows of $270 million, $162.2 million, $104.5 million, $66.1 million, $87 million and $1.7 million in subsequent sessions, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $15.4 million and 21Shares' TETH for $1.7 million most recently. On September 29, Ethereum rose about 1% to $2,745 as traders increased exposure across perpetual futures markets, with open interest up roughly $700 million and total liquidations reaching $83.17 million, of which longs accounted for $38.16 million and shorts $45.01 million. Ethereum's next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, is scheduled to go live on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, with mainnet launch targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 though no firm date has been set, and it includes enshrined proposer-builder separation, block-level access lists and a revamp of gas fee pricing. The on-chain economy is also expanding: Ethereum DeFi total value locked rose from about $42 billion on August 19 to $53.65 billion on September 28, an increase of roughly $11.5 billion, or 27.4%, in about six weeks; the circulating value of tokenized equities reached about $3.14 billion, up about 947% from roughly $300 million in September 2025; and the circulating value of tokenized U.S. Treasuries reached $14.72 billion, doubling over the past year.
Robinhood to offer crypto perpetual futures in the US
Robinhood announced on September 29 that it will offer crypto perpetual futures to eligible customers in the United States, with trading to become available through its own app within the coming months. The offering covers eight assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Chainlink, and Hyperliquid. Bitcoin and Ethereum will support leverage of up to 10x, while the remaining six assets will support up to 3x. The service will be provided by Robinhood Derivatives, which is registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, through the crypto exchange Bitstamp, and Robinhood will leverage the trading infrastructure from its acquisition of Bitstamp, which closed in June 2025. Trading fees are set at 1 basis point per trade, or 0.01%, through the end of 2026. In the US, the CFTC approved the listing of Bitcoin perpetual futures for the first time on May 29, and the move to offer such products under US regulation is spreading.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Digital Wealth & Robo-Advisory Supply
HOOD · Demand · Positive Robinhood launches crypto perpetual futures for US customers, expanding its product offering and fee revenue.
Robinhood Derivatives, LLC · Regulation · Positive Robinhood Derivatives, CFTC-registered, will provide the perpetual futures service under US regulation.
BTC · Demand · Positive Bitcoin is one of eight assets offered in Robinhood's new perpetual futures with up to 10x leverage, boosting trading access.
ETH · Demand · Positive Ethereum is included among the perpetual futures assets with up to 10x leverage on Robinhood's platform.
Ethereum Sets October 6 Test Date for Glamsterdam Upgrade
Ethereum has announced that testing for the Glamsterdam upgrade will take place on October 6. This test is a key step before the upgrade goes live on the Ethereum Mainnet. Glamsterdam is a major upgrade package for the Ethereum network that has drawn close attention from the developer community and investors. The test follows earlier trials conducted in test environments. Meanwhile, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin continues to play a key role in driving the network's ongoing development.
Ethereum OG Wakes 9-Year-Old Wallet to Take 15,600% Profit Near Q3 Peak
A major early investor, regarded as an Ethereum OG, has reactivated a wallet that had been dormant for about nine years to take profits near the peak of the current quarterly rally. The investor, who originally bought Ethereum at $18.8, is now offloading holdings at a profit of 15,600 percent. The move comes amid what the article describes as a historic Q3 record for the asset.
ETH · · Neutral An early Ethereum investor reactivated a 9-year-dormant wallet to sell at a 15,600% profit near the Q3 peak; the article reports the whale's profit-taking with no stated fundamental cause, a mixed signal for ETH.
BitMine's Ethereum holdings surpass 6 million ETH milestone
BitMine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Tom Lee, announced on September 28 that its Ethereum holdings had topped 6 million ETH. Holdings rose by 17,362 ETH from the previous announcement on September 21, reaching 6,001,302 ETH as of September 27. At the time of the announcement, the ETH holdings were worth about 16.1 billion dollars, equivalent to roughly 2.53 trillion yen at 157 yen to the dollar. In addition to ETH, the company holds 213 BTC, cash, listed securities, and strategic investments in companies, and said its total holdings of crypto assets, cash, and other investments reached 17.2 billion dollars. The company launched an ETH-centered treasury strategy on June 30, 2025, with a goal of holding 5 percent of the ETH supply. With ETH supply at about 122.1 million ETH, the company's holdings represent roughly 4.9 percent of that, putting progress toward the 5 percent goal at 98 percent. Of its ETH holdings, 5,067,309 ETH are staked, accounting for about 84 percent of the total. According to Lee, current staking revenue is estimated at about 358 million dollars on an annualized basis, and BitMine's own staking business posted a yield of 2.62 percent annualized over the past seven days. Lee also said a crypto bull market has been underway since late June, noted that institutional investors' allocation to crypto assets remains small, and predicted that institutions will raise their investment ratios through the end of 2026.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles Capital
BMNR · Capital · Positive BitMine's ETH treasury holdings topped 6 million ETH, worth ~$16.1B, with total crypto/cash holdings at $17.2B and staking revenue ~$358M annualized.
ETH · Demand · Positive BitMine's ETH treasury strategy has accumulated ~4.9% of ETH supply, with 5.07M ETH staked, representing large institutional buying/holding demand for Ethereum.
BitMine Buys More Ethereum, Tops 6 Million Milestone
BitMine Immersion Technologies has bought more Ethereum, pushing its holdings past the 6 million milestone. Tom Lee, the chairman of the world's largest Ethereum treasury firm, has continued to advocate for Ethereum amid his company's relentless accumulation of the asset. The company trades under the ticker BMNR.
Bitget Resumes Bitcoin Withdrawals After Roughly $390 Million Outflow
Crypto exchange Bitget announced on its official X account on September 28 that it had resumed Bitcoin withdrawals starting at 5:00 p.m. Japan time. The move is part of a phased restoration of withdrawal services that had been suspended following a security incident confirmed on September 24. The exchange said the vulnerability behind the incident has been fixed, no new unauthorized transfers have been detected since the incident was contained, and user account balances were unaffected. Under the withdrawal resumption schedule, Ethereum withdrawals will resume at 5:00 p.m. on September 29, Tether at 5:00 p.m. on September 30, and other cryptocurrencies, fiat currencies, and P2P-related withdrawals at 5:00 p.m. on October 2. The backdrop is a large-scale asset outflow that occurred on September 24, when the company detected unauthorized asset movements from some of its hot wallets and warm wallets on September 25 and disclosed that about $387.5 million in assets had been moved to addresses controlled by the attacker. An initial investigation found that the attacker breached a key backend system underpinning the wallets, falsified transfer data, and moved the assets, but no evidence was found that the private keys themselves were stolen. The company plans to cover the losses through its user protection fund, which stood at roughly $464 million at the time of the incident, exceeding the amount lost, and users do not need to take any additional steps before withdrawals resume.
Vitalik Buterin Lays Out Ethereum Blueprint Through 2030 After Hegota Fork
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has unveiled an architectural blueprint for Ethereum through 2030, saying the network will no longer be just a blockchain but a hybrid architecture that fuses the blockchain with modern cryptography. Buterin wrote in a post on X that this approach is the foundation for everything planned for Ethereum, starting with the fork after Hegota, an upgrade planned for next year that will likely be Ethereum's last regular fork before everything that follows involves recursive STARKs, formal automated verification, highly optimized consensus algorithms, and making all of it quantum-safe. Glamsterdam, the upgrade preceding Hegota, is expected to ship in the fourth quarter of 2026, after previously being expected to go live in the first half of 2026. Buterin also projected slot times of 4 to 8 seconds by 2030 and absolute finality of 8 to 32 seconds. The price of ETH traded near 2,700 dollars on Sunday, little changed over 24 hours.
ETH · Technology · Positive Buterin unveiled an Ethereum architectural blueprint through 2030 fusing the blockchain with modern cryptography, including recursive STARKs, formal verification, and quantum-safe upgrades.
AI Hardware Boom Makes Running Ethereum at Home Easier, Vitalik Confirms
The hardware boom in local AI has unexpectedly solved one of Ethereum's main infrastructure problems: the high cost of hardware for end users. Vitalik Buterin confirmed that running Ethereum at home is now easier than ever, crediting the surge in local AI hardware for bringing down the cost barrier that had long kept end users from operating their own nodes. The development marks a shift for the network's infrastructure, as hardware that was once prohibitively expensive for individuals is now more accessible thanks to demand driven by local AI. Buterin's confirmation underscores how the AI boom is delivering an unintended benefit to Ethereum's decentralization goals.
ETH · Technology · Positive AI hardware boom lowers the cost barrier for running Ethereum nodes at home, improving network infrastructure and decentralization.
Yen-Denominated Stablecoin EJPY Draws 26 Companies Including Toshiba to Pilot Program
Japan Blockchain Infrastructure announced on the 24th that it has launched the Stablecoin Proof-of-Concept Partners program, which will jointly study uses for the yen-denominated stablecoin EJPY with operating companies, financial institutions, and local governments, and that 26 companies and organizations have expressed interest in participating since the call for applicants opened. The participants disclosed so far number 16 companies and organizations, including Toshiba, SCSK, QUICK, Asahi Broadcasting Group Holdings, and Hachijuni Nagano Bank, as well as the city of Tagawa in Fukuoka Prefecture as a local government; the remaining 10 companies will be announced in sequence after coordination. The areas under study are wide-ranging, including domestic remittances and payments, cross-border payments, settlement of real-world assets and security tokens, payments in Web3 services, and payments in regional economies. Participation is free of charge, and the program is scheduled to run for about six months from September 2026 to February 2027, with participating companies receiving stablecoin study sessions, individual consultations, and a testing environment using EJPY test coins and wallets on JOC. Regarding EJPY, the company announced on May 13 that it had formally decided to adopt a trust-type scheme and issue the stablecoin on JOC and Ethereum, and it is currently preparing the issuance and redemption mechanisms, systems, and legal compliance.
Securitize Lands First Tokenization Deal With ARK Invest After SEC Exemption
Securitize Corp. has sealed a deal with ARK Invest to tokenize the ARK Venture Fund, its first tokenization contract since the Securities and Exchange Commission issued what it called the Innovation Exemption allowing tokenized representation of traditional securities. The ARK Venture Fund, an actively managed closed-end interval fund holding private and public companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe and Databricks, will become available on Ethereum, with Securitize providing the infrastructure for onchain issuance and the investor experience. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said tokenizing the fund puts the firm's conviction in the evolution of capital markets into practice and called the partnership a natural extension of its mission to democratize access to disruptive innovation. Following the SEC's rules issuance on tokenized securities, Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with a buy recommendation and a $21.20 price target, while Rosenblatt raised its price target to $13 from $11, citing the Innovation Exemption as a significant catalyst. Securitize manages around $5 billion of tokenized assets under management across 23 public blockchains, and the article notes that traditional financial assets total $319 trillion worldwide with only $39 billion, or 0.01 percent, currently on-chain.
SECZ · Demand · Positive Securitize sealed its first tokenization deal with ARK Invest to tokenize the ARK Venture Fund, providing onchain issuance infrastructure.
SECZ · Regulation · Positive Securitize lands its first tokenization deal with ARK Invest after the SEC's Innovation Exemption enabled tokenized securities.
ARK Investment Management LLC · Regulation · Positive ARK Invest tokenizes its ARK Venture Fund via Securitize under the SEC's new Innovation Exemption for tokenized securities.
Ark Venture Fund · Regulation · Positive The ARK Venture Fund will be tokenized on Ethereum through Securitize following the SEC's Innovation Exemption.
ETH · Demand · Positive ARK Venture Fund will be tokenized and made available on Ethereum, driving onchain issuance activity on the network.
EU Financial Authorities Urge Early Action on Quantum Computers, Citing Major Risks to Cryptography
The European Banking Authority, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, and the European Securities and Markets Authority published a joint risk report on September 23, warning that quantum computers pose a serious risk to the cryptography protecting communications, transactions, databases, and blockchains. They said the threat could materialize sooner than the commercialization of quantum technology, and called on financial institutions and market participants to prepare for the rapid development of quantum computers. In crypto assets, ownership is proven through digital signatures using public and private keys, but future quantum computers could derive a private key from a public key and impersonate the owner to move assets. CoinDesk, citing data from CryptoQuant, reported that roughly 6.9 million bitcoins could be exposed to quantum attacks. The EU has already set out a plan to migrate to post-quantum cryptography, asking member states to begin the transition by the end of 2026 and aiming to protect high-risk sectors by the end of 2030 at the latest. On September 10, Eigen Labs published research showing that the key computational processing required for a quantum attack on the cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum could be reduced by more than 50 percent in resource terms compared with previous estimates.
BTC · Technology · Negative EU regulators warn quantum computers could derive private keys and expose ~6.9M bitcoins, and Eigen Labs research cuts attack resource needs by over 50%.
ETH · Technology · Negative Eigen Labs research shows quantum attacks on Ethereum's cryptography could require over 50% fewer resources, heightening the threat to its digital signatures.
Eigen Labs · Technology · Neutral Eigen Labs is mentioned only for publishing research on reduced quantum-attack resources, with no clear positive or negative impact on the firm itself.
moomoo Reports 50% Jump in Crypto Buyers as Retail Demand Broadens
Retail brokerage moomoo has seen a 50% increase in users buying cryptocurrency, with bitcoin the most actively traded coin, as demand for digital assets broadens beyond the majors. Albi Mema, director of crypto operations at moomoo U.S., part of Nasdaq-listed Futu Holdings, said the pickup reflected both new users arriving from other venues and existing equity and options traders adding crypto to their portfolios. Mema said users have come to the platform from other exchanges to move funds on and off since moomoo launched crypto wallets, attracted in part by lower costs, and that a wider product lineup, including event contracts, was drawing customers across the platform. Bitcoin and ether account for most of moomoo's crypto activity, he said, but the mix is widening, with assets such as XRP and HYPE gaining meaningful traction and consistently ranking among the most actively traded coins on the platform. Mema added that there was significant overlap between the platform's crypto users and those trading stocks and options, describing a self-directed, multi-asset investor base that increasingly treats crypto as part of a broader portfolio, and said moomoo is narrowing the gap between institutional and retail infrastructure.
Ethereum Has Only a 10% Chance of Reaching $3,000 in September — Polymarket Points to Three Reasons for Skepticism
Ethereum fell sharply on September 23, dropping from its recent high near $2,807 on Monday, and is trading at about $2,747 at the time of writing. Polymarket traders put the odds of Ethereum reaching $3,000 this month at just 10%, and the odds of hitting $2,900 at 19%. Behind this are September's preliminary S&P Global PMI readings, which rose to 58.4 from 56.0 on a composite basis and to 57.0 from 53.9 for manufacturing, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, its highest level since July 2007. According to Coinglass data, Ethereum markets recorded $104.55 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $80.66 million. The number of active validators also fell to 900,862 on September 23 from 911,234 on September 18, a decline of 10,372. Exchange holdings rose to 14,804,402 ETH on September 21 from 14,602,962 ETH on September 15, an increase of 201,440 ETH. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs took in a record $270 million on Monday and another $162.2 million on Tuesday, bringing total inflows over the two days to about $432.2 million.
ETH · Monetary · Negative Ethereum fell as strong PMI data and the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% soured risk appetite, with $80.66M in long liquidations and rising exchange holdings.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, its highest since July 2007, on stronger-than-expected September PMI readings.
Bitcoin falls below $85,000 as US bond yields surge past 5%, wiping out $510 million in crypto positions
Bitcoin fell below $85,000 on September 23 after US business activity came in stronger than expected, pushing US Treasury yields higher and liquidating leveraged long positions from the market. The selling intensified after S&P Global published its preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) for February. Within just one hour, more than $135.8 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated, according to data from CoinGlass, of which long positions accounted for $125.9 million. Of that total, Bitcoin saw $47.4 million liquidated and Ether another $23.9 million. Over the past 24 hours, total losses reached $510 million across 122,256 traders, with long traders losing $363.83 million. S&P Global's composite PMI climbed to 58.4 in September, its highest level in more than five years, while the services index rose to 58.7 and the manufacturing index reached 57. All three readings came in above expectations, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds moved back above 5%, a level last seen in 2007.
BTC · Monetary · Negative Bitcoin fell below $85,000 as surging US Treasury yields above 5% triggered liquidations of leveraged long positions.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive The 10-year US Treasury yield moved back above 5% after the stronger-than-expected PMI readings.
SPGI · Demand · Positive S&P Global's preliminary composite PMI climbed to 58.4, its highest in over five years, with services and manufacturing also beating expectations — strong demand for its data/index products.
ETH · Monetary · Negative Ether dropped alongside Bitcoin with $23.9 million in liquidations as rising bond yields hit crypto.
CoinGlass · · Neutral CoinGlass is only cited as the data source for the liquidation figures, not as a subject of the news.
Bitwise Survey: Institutional Investors Did Not Sell Despite 50% Crypto Decline
Bitwise, a crypto asset management firm, released its first survey report on institutional adoption of crypto assets on September 23, projecting that a majority of institutional investors will hold crypto assets within the next five years. The survey was conducted through in-person interviews between late March and April 2026 with investment officers at 15 institutions, including funds and foundations, public pensions, sovereign wealth funds, multi-family offices, investment consultants, and listed companies. According to the report, although the crypto market fell about 50% between October 2025 and April 2026, not a single institution reduced its allocation, and several institutions added to their positions. Every institution holding crypto assets held Bitcoin, and for nearly all of them it was the first asset purchased and the largest and longest-held position, while Ethereum and Solana were viewed as investments in early-stage technology, with holdings remaining small and allocations ranging from 0.5% to 13% of assets under management, mostly between 1% and 2%. No institution cited price as a condition for selling; instead, they cited ETH or SOL failing to demonstrate utility, regulatory setbacks, or a crisis of confidence across the industry. Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer who authored the report, and his colleagues believe the barrier to adoption is not investment value but organizational governance and reputational risk, and they predicted that adoption will proceed not linearly but exponentially, because disclosure by peers creates a structure that encourages the next wave of adoption. In Japan, a survey of domestic institutional investors published in April by Nomura Holdings and others found that 31% of respondents described their outlook for crypto assets as positive, up 6 percentage points from the previous survey in 2024.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles ▲Demand
Bitwise Asset Management · Demand · Positive Bitwise's own survey projects majority institutional crypto adoption within five years, with no institutions cutting allocations despite the 50% drawdown.
BTC · Demand · Positive Survey shows institutions held or added to Bitcoin allocations despite a 50% market decline, with Bitcoin the first, largest, and longest-held position for every holder.
ETH · Demand · Neutral Ethereum holdings remained small and were viewed as early-stage technology investments, with no institution citing price as a sell condition but some flagging ETH's failure to demonstrate utility.
SOL · Demand · Neutral Solana holdings stayed small and were treated as early-stage tech bets, with utility concerns cited as a potential reason institutions might sell.
Canaan Liquidates Entire 3,952 ETH Position and 54 BTC, Raising $13.9 Million for Buybacks
Canaan Inc. liquidated its entire 3,952 ETH position at close to $2,400 per Ethereum and sold 54 bitcoins at roughly $79,000 per BTC in late August, generating approximately $13.9 million in combined cash proceeds. The company used about $5.4 million of those proceeds to repurchase 13.6 million American Depositary Shares, bringing total buybacks since the start of the year to 16.4 million ADSs. Canaan mined 44 BTC during August and maintained a non-JV installed hashrate of 10.05 EH/s, while its joint venture hashrate reached 4.92 EH/s by month-end. Despite the sales, Canaan still held a treasury of 1,868 BTC at the end of August. The treasury moves come as Canaan's core mining-equipment business remains weak, with second-quarter product revenue falling to $13.6 million from $71.9 million a year earlier and mining revenue declining to $17.7 million from $28.1 million.
Kalshi Denies Wash Trading After Report Flags $5,500 Ethereum Trades
Kalshi is rejecting allegations of wash trading after a Wall Street Journal analysis found that more than one-third of its Ethereum perpetual trading volume came from rapid trades clustered around a single order size of $5,500. Trades executed at that size generated more than $5 billion in Ethereum perpetual volume over the past month, according to the report, which said the platform facilitated close to a million trades of nearly identical sizes in a single market. Pseudonymous quant analyst and Stealth Neolab co-founder Beni had alleged last week that the $5,500 trades accounted for as much as 58% of Kalshi's Ethereum perpetual volume across four separate days. Kalshi cryptocurrency lead IcoBeast dismissed the claims, saying the platform's fee structure should deter wash trading and that critics had confused its prediction-market activity with its perpetual-futures business. In a blog post on Tuesday, Kalshi said wash trading is explicitly banned in its rulebook and that it has seen no evidence of collusion or wash trades, attributing the repeated trade sizes to its liquidity-provider program, in which market makers post resting orders at fixed sizes that can be repeatedly filled by different traders. The CFTC, which oversees prediction markets in the U.S., did not immediately return a request for comment, and a Columbia University study last year estimated that nearly 25% of Polymarket's volume over the previous three years was wash trading, though the researchers did not accuse Polymarket of being complicit.
Kalshi · Regulation · Negative Kalshi is accused of facilitating wash trading on its Ethereum perpetuals and is denying the allegations amid CFTC oversight.
ETH · Regulation · Neutral Ethereum perpetual volume on Kalshi is at the center of wash-trading allegations, but the article gives no clear directional driver for ETH's own price.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs See Highest Inflows in a Year, Combined Total Nears $1.3 Billion
US-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded their highest level of inflows in a year. According to data from Farside UK, Ethereum ETFs logged about $270 million in inflows on Monday, while Bitcoin ETFs saw $999 million in net inflows, bringing combined single-day inflows for the two assets to nearly $1.3 billion. The Bitcoin inflow was the largest single day since about $835 million was recorded on October 6, 2025, and Ethereum also hit its highest level since $420 million on October 7, 2025. Eric Balchunas, chief ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said much of the reported inflows may stem from Friday buy orders and expressed the view that further inflows will appear in the coming days. Bitcoin ETFs hold a total of 1.4 million BTC, equivalent to about 6.97% of the circulating supply as of September 22. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's one-year active supply rate has fallen to about 36.7%, its lowest level since April 2025, suggesting long-term holders are reluctant to sell even during the rally.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles ▲Demand
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Miner-Treasury Hybrids ▲Demand
BTC · Demand · Positive Bitcoin ETFs saw $999 million in net inflows, the largest single day in a year, signaling strong investor demand for BTC exposure.
ETH · Demand · Positive Ethereum ETFs logged about $270 million in inflows, their highest level since October 2025, indicating strong investor demand for ETH exposure.
Analyst Dan Krupka Warns of Q4 2026 Crypto Crash After Relief Rally
Dan Krupka, founder of Connection Capital and former research head at Coin Bureau, is calling for caution and a fourth-quarter crash even as Bitcoin pushes back toward $86,000. Krupka, who laid out 2026's rhythm for subscribers on January 1, sees the current move as the tail end of a textbook relief rally setting up a brutal liquidity trap in the fourth quarter. He expects one last squeeze, with Bitcoin running another 20% to 30% to the $96,000 zone, Ethereum squeezing into overhead supply between $3,300 and $3,500, and Solana pushing up to $140 to $160, before momentum exhausts and a sharp retracement follows. On the macro side, he points to the US Dollar Index pressing resistance at its monthly Bollinger Band, warning that a breakout would drain liquidity from risk assets, and he notes warnings from Warren Buffett in mid-September and Michael Burry throughout 2026. Krupka says a standard 50% retracement would put Bitcoin back between $30,000 and $40,000, and he advises watching how price reacts around $96,000 rather than mistaking a mechanical bear market rally for a new supercycle.
BTC · Monetary · Negative Krupka warns Bitcoin's relief rally toward $96,000 will exhaust and a Q4 2026 crash could retrace it to $30,000-$40,000, with a dollar breakout draining liquidity from risk assets.
ETH · Monetary · Negative Krupka expects Ethereum to squeeze into $3,300-$3,500 overhead supply before momentum exhausts and a sharp retracement follows in Q4 2026.
SOL · Monetary · Negative Krupka sees Solana pushing to $140-$160 before the broader crypto relief rally exhausts and a Q4 2026 crash hits risk assets.
Ondo Launches New Feature to Tokenize Physical Stocks Directly Through Alpaca Partnership
Ondo Finance announced on September 21 a new feature that allows financial institutions and others to directly exchange physical U.S. stocks and ETFs they hold for corresponding tokenized products. The feature is integrated with Alpaca's Instant Tokenization Network, or ITN, a securities trading infrastructure provider. Eligible institutions can transfer shares held in their Alpaca account to an Ondo account and receive the corresponding stock tokens, called Ondo Stocks, or conversely redeem the tokens to receive physical shares. The service currently supports Ethereum and the BNB Chain, and is limited to institutions that have passed screening by both Ondo and Alpaca. Until now, Ondo offered a mechanism to issue tokenized stocks using cash or stablecoins, but even if an institution already held the underlying shares, it could not issue tokens directly using them and had to prepare separate funds. Under the new mechanism, held shares can be tokenized directly without the step of selling them and converting them into cash, making it easier to reduce funding costs and timing gaps that arise between physical stock inventory and tokenized positions. Because it becomes easier to replenish token inventory, Ondo says this will lead to narrower spreads, the difference between buying and selling prices, and greater liquidity.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Real-World Asset Tokenization ▲Technology
Ondo Finance · Technology · Positive Ondo launches a new feature enabling institutions to tokenize held U.S. stocks and ETFs directly, improving liquidity and narrowing spreads.
AlpacaDB, Inc. (Alpaca) · Demand · Positive Alpaca's Instant Tokenization Network is integrated into Ondo's new feature, bringing institutional share-tokenization flow through its infrastructure.
ETH · Technology · Positive Ondo's new tokenized-stock feature runs on Ethereum, adding tokenization activity to the network.
BitMine's ETH holdings reach 5.98 million, hitting 98% of its 5% of total supply goal
Bitmine Immersion Technologies, a U.S. company that holds Ethereum as a treasury reserve asset, announced on September 21 that it acquired an additional 27,562 ETH over the past week, bringing its holdings to 5,983,940 ETH. According to the company, this equals 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply of roughly 122.1 million ETH, reaching 98% of its goal of holding 5% of the supply. BitMine has purchased ETH every week since launching its ETH treasury strategy on June 30, 2025. About 5.1 million of the ETH it holds is staked, accounting for roughly 85% of its total ETH holdings, and the current annualized staking yield is expected to be about 357 million dollars, or roughly 56 billion yen at 157 yen to the dollar. For staking, the company uses its own developed platform MAVAN along with external staking partners. Chairman Tom Lee has said that since late June he has viewed the crypto asset market as being in an ongoing bull market, citing a shift of funds from AI into crypto assets, improving fundamentals centered on tokenization and AI, and the end of the four-year cycle. He also predicted that, based on ETH's performance in the third quarter of 2026, the fourth quarter could bring an even stronger rally, and expressed the view that institutional investors will significantly increase their exposure over the three months through the end of the year.
Kevin O'Leary Says Bitcoin Hits $1 Million Only If Quantum Risk Is Solved
Kevin O'Leary said Bitcoin will reach $1 million, but only if the crypto industry resolves the quantum-computing threat known as Q-Day, the point at which a quantum computer could forge the signatures securing every Bitcoin wallet. Speaking at Avalanche Summit, O'Leary said no such machine exists and estimates for when one arrives run from the early 2030s to never, but that the doubt alone is why large funds cap Bitcoin exposure near 3%, treating it as a sliver of gold rather than a core holding. He also reversed his Ethereum thesis, saying his eighteen-month-old view that owning Bitcoin and Ethereum captured 97% of crypto's upside did not pan out, and that he now expects entire industries to pick their own chain, with whichever blockchain the first major exchange adopts for tokenization seeing that token soar. The interview came after the SEC approved its Innovation Exemption for tokenized stocks last week and as ICE evaluates Avalanche as the settlement layer for the NYSE's in-development trading system. O'Leary frames crypto as becoming the twelfth sector of the S&P because it services the other eleven.
BTC · Technology · Neutral O'Leary says Bitcoin can reach $1M only if the industry solves the quantum-computing Q-Day threat, which currently caps large funds' exposure near 3%.
AVAX · Demand · Positive ICE is evaluating Avalanche as the settlement layer for the NYSE's in-development trading system, a potential major adoption of the chain.
ETH · Competition · Negative O'Leary reversed his Ethereum thesis, saying owning Bitcoin and Ethereum did not capture crypto's upside and that industries will pick their own chains.
ICE · Regulation · Neutral ICE is evaluating Avalanche as the settlement layer for the NYSE's in-development trading system, following the SEC's tokenization exemption.
Ethereum Tops $2,672 Intraday as Bitcoin Short Squeeze Lifts Crypto
Ethereum surged 6% to $2,719, breaking above the key $2,672 Fibonacci level intraday, though its weekly close on September 20 came in at $2,644, below the trigger. The move was driven by a Bitcoin-led short squeeze that force-liquidated $300 million in short positions in one hour, pulling Ethereum and the broader crypto market higher rather than reflecting Ethereum-specific demand. Ethereum is trading at $2,725 today, up 5.4% in 24 hours, 7.6% for the week and 12.6% over 30 days, for a market capitalization of about $332.5 billion. A daily close above $2,800 and the September 27 weekly close are the two remaining gates before the zone between $2,950 and $3,000 opens, while a drop below $2,616 would bring support at $2,600 and $2,405 back into play. The next key event on Ethereum's calendar is the Glamsterdam Sepolia test on October 6, a rehearsal for an upcoming network upgrade.
ETH · Monetary · Positive Ethereum rose 6% to $2,719 as a Bitcoin-led short squeeze force-liquidated $300M in shorts, lifting the broader crypto market rather than reflecting Ethereum-specific demand.
SEC Tokenization Order Lifts Ethereum to $2,727 as Bitmine, Coinbase Jump 6%
The SEC issued a five-year exemption on September 17 creating a regulated pathway for certain trading venues to issue tokenized representations of publicly traded U.S. stocks, sending crypto-linked equities higher Monday morning. Ethereum is at $2,727.39, up 5.7% over the trailing 24 hours, while the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF is up 3.3% to $20.57 and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is up 0.7% at $767.14. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury, is at $27.42, up 6%, and SharpLink is at $9.80, up 5%, both tracking the coin as Ethereum-treasury proxies. Coinbase Global is at $205.12, up 6%, catching a separate bid because it already runs tokenized equity offerings outside the United States and sits closest to the order's practical mechanics. The exemption carries volume limits and no formal rulemaking has followed, so the durability of Coinbase's rally hinges on any U.S. onshore rollout it pursues under those conditions.
BMNR · Regulation · Positive Largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury rises 6% as the SEC tokenization exemption lifts Ethereum and its treasury proxies.
COIN · Regulation · Positive Coinbase jumps 6% because it already runs tokenized equity offerings abroad and sits closest to the SEC order's practical mechanics.
ETH · Regulation · Positive Ethereum climbs to $2,727 as the SEC's five-year tokenization exemption creates a regulated pathway for tokenized U.S. equities.
SBET · Regulation · Positive SharpLink rises 5% as an Ethereum-treasury proxy tracking the coin higher on the SEC tokenization exemption.
Bitcoin Surges to 8-Month High Above $85,000 on ETF Demand
Bitcoin climbed to an eight-month high above $85,000 on Monday, peaking at $85,222 for a gain of up to 5.1% as renewed ETF demand and improving appetite for risk assets extended momentum from the prior week. The token settled at $85,117, a 4.7% advance, and has now surged more than 30% from its Aug. 19 level while adding close to 6% in last week's trading alone, staying comfortably clear of the $80,000 mark that had repeatedly resisted upward breakthroughs in prior weeks. Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam cited accelerating ETF inflows, favorable signals from regulators, and traders covering short positions, while on the options platform Deribit call contracts outnumbered puts by more than 272,000 to 154,000. FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich told Bloomberg that the crypto market capitalization has risen to $2.8T, its highest level since the end of January this year, with buyers dominating since Sunday. Falling oil prices and optimism ahead of a planned Thursday summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping lifted risk assets broadly, with Ether rising more than 4.3% to $2,747 while XRP, Solana, and Monero also gained. The milestone builds on a recovery that absorbed the failure of the Clarity Act and the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate increase in more than three years, aided by a Securities and Exchange Commission green light on Thursday for digital versions of securities to begin trading in the U.S., though bitcoin remains well below the $97,000-plus level it hit in mid-January and trails its all-time October record by an even wider margin.
Bitcoin's Bull Market Is Cooling, Watch US Demand Slowdown and Altcoin Selling Pressure
In a weekly report published on September 16, CryptoQuant assessed the current Bitcoin market as a "cooling bull market." After its recent rally, Bitcoin entered a range of $76,000 to $82,000 and is now trading near the lower end of that band, while its bullish score index fell from 80 during the uptrend to 60. Weakness in US investor demand is also clear: the Coinbase Premium has slipped back into negative territory as Bitcoin corrects from around $80,000, and a recovery in spot demand is seen as essential for a sustained advance. Ethereum exchange inflows surged in late August and around September 10, briefly reaching 1.6 million to 1.7 million ETH, while altcoin exchange inflow transactions hit 56,000 on September 8, the highest level in about nine months. Bitcoin exchange inflows, by contrast, have been calm; they briefly rose to about 53,000 BTC when prices climbed to $82,000 but have since declined, indicating that large-scale selling is not continuing. The key price level ahead is around $70,000, where the 200-day moving average sits; a break below that would bring $62,000 to $65,000 into focus as the next major support.
Kevin O'Leary Buys Crypto Again, Gold Comparison Points to $760K Bitcoin
Kevin O'Leary has started buying new crypto positions ahead of what he believes will be the market's next cycle, and his comparison between Bitcoin and institutional gold allocations has produced an eye-watering potential price. Speaking at the Avalanche Summit in New York, O'Leary told The Block he is "back in the saddle buying new positions, putting my bets on for this next cycle," though he did not identify the assets or disclose the value of the positions. He said Bitcoin could eventually represent between 1% and 3% of the capital institutions allocate to alternative assets, drawing a comparison with gold, and Forbes calculated that such a scenario could value Bitcoin between $253,000 and $760,000. The upper estimate would give Bitcoin a market capitalization of roughly $15 trillion, while the lower figure would produce a valuation close to $5 trillion; with Bitcoin recently trading near $80,000, reaching $253,000 would require an increase of approximately 216%, and a move to $760,000 would represent an advance of about 850%. The $760,000 figure is considerably higher than O'Leary's actual public forecast of $150,000 to $200,000 in April, which hinged on the CLARITY Act establishing a clearer regulatory framework, a catalyst removed after the Senate rejected the bill's motion to proceed. O'Leary also said in an April interview with Fox Business that investors could capture approximately 97% of the crypto market's volatility by holding Bitcoin and Ethereum, and that he had reduced a portfolio that once spanned 27 crypto positions primarily to BTC and Ethereum alongside the USDC stablecoin.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles Demand
BTC · Demand · Positive O'Leary is buying crypto again and argues Bitcoin could capture 1-3% of institutional alternative allocations, implying $253K-$760K.
ETH · Demand · Positive O'Leary said investors can capture ~97% of crypto volatility holding Bitcoin and Ethereum, and he holds ETH alongside BTC.
Ethereum After Hawkish Fed Signal: Three Whale Buying Levels
With the Federal Reserve deciding on September 16 to raise rates by 25 basis points and signaling further tightening, Ethereum plunged 5% on Tuesday to a two-week low of $2,358, then rebounded about 2% on Wednesday to roughly $2,400 to $2,450. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range for the policy rate by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, and in its summary of economic projections, a majority of 12 of the 18 participating policymakers forecast another 25bp hike by the end of 2026, while the median core inflation forecast was raised to 3.4%. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a second 25bp hike has risen to 66% from 43% just 24 hours before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Three price levels where past large whale trades clustered are cited: 8,077 trades on August 21 at a median price of about $2,434, 8,814 trades on June 5 at an average price of about $1,635, and 7,644 trades on May 6 at an average price of about $2,293. A clear break below $2,434 would expose the next whale activity zone. Prediction markets put the probability of reaching a $2,750 target at 69% and the $3,000 psychological threshold at 48%, while the probability of falling below $2,000 stands at just 18%.
Saylor Says Banks Can Lend Against Bitcoin Without Congress as Deutsche Bank Awaits BaFin Approval
Michael Saylor, Chairman of MicroStrategy, said banks will expand Bitcoin custody and lending without new legislation from Congress, arguing the SEC and CFTC can advance crypto rules under existing law while the CLARITY Act stalls. Saylor's case rests on Bitcoin's settled status as a CFTC-regulated commodity with SEC-approved spot ETFs, plus a series of interpretive letters the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has issued since March 2025 confirming national banks may custody crypto assets and execute trades at customer direction. Deutsche Bank announced this week that it plans to launch regulated custody for Bitcoin, Ethereum and select stablecoins for institutional and corporate clients by the end of 2026, and that launch is awaiting sign-off from BaFin, Germany's financial regulator, under the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, whose transition period ended on July 1. The bank, which reported $2.217 trillion in assets under management as of June 30, holds a German crypto-custody authorization but still needs BaFin's approval for the specific service it announced, and that custody approval is the first piece any bank needs before it can lend against Bitcoin at all. Saylor's argument runs thin in one respect: OCC interpretive letters are guidance rather than statute and can be revoked by a future administration or a court challenge without a vote in Congress, whereas the CLARITY Act would lock Bitcoin's commodity status and banks' lending authority into law. Bitcoin-backed lending would let large holders borrow at bank rates instead of triggering a taxable sale, but the same structure works in reverse when prices fall, as happened in 2022 when Celsius, BlockFi and Voyager collapsed under forced selling, and the shift remains early since Deutsche Bank has not launched custody yet, let alone lending.
MSTR · Regulation · Positive Saylor argues banks can custody and lend against Bitcoin under existing SEC/CFTC/OCC rules without new Congress legislation.
BTC · Regulation · Positive Article frames Bitcoin as a settled CFTC-regulated commodity with SEC-approved spot ETFs, supporting bank custody and lending.
DBK.XETRA · Regulation · Positive Deutsche Bank announced regulated Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoin custody awaiting BaFin sign-off under EU MiCA rules.
ETH · Regulation · Positive Deutsche Bank plans regulated Ethereum custody for institutional clients pending BaFin approval under MiCA.
SEC Rejects 19th XRP Short ETF as $1.11 Billion Exits Bitcoin and Ethereum Funds
The SEC rejected a nineteenth XRP short ETF while $1.11 billion flowed out of regulated spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs over just 48 hours. The two-day institutional outflow followed a synchronized shock: an unexpected Federal Reserve rate hike and the Senate's blocking of the CLARITY Act, which together triggered panic selling. The crypto market is now attempting a fragile relief bounce this morning as it tries to stabilize after the large-scale exit of institutional capital.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Miner-Treasury Hybrids ▼Demand
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles ▼Demand
BTC · Monetary · Negative $1.11B flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs after the unexpected Fed rate hike and CLARITY Act blockage triggered panic selling.
ETH · Monetary · Negative Ethereum spot ETFs were part of the $1.11B two-day institutional outflow driven by the Fed rate hike shock.
XRP · Regulation · Negative The SEC rejected a nineteenth XRP short ETF, and the Senate's blocking of the CLARITY Act added regulatory pressure on XRP.
EFFR.MM · Monetary · Positive An unexpected Federal Reserve rate hike pushes the effective federal funds rate higher.
US-10Y.GB · Monetary · Positive The surprise Fed rate hike and resulting risk-off selling push Treasury yields higher.
