Moody's Corporation is an integrated risk assessment firm operating in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments: Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Service (MIS). MA provides risk management products and services, including credit research, models, economic data, and cloud-based SaaS solutions for banking, insurance, and KYC workflows. MIS publishes credit ratings and assessment services for debt obligations and entities, including corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000. Founded in 1900, it is headquartered in New York, New York.
Moody's AI and private credit growth offset by Middle East risk-off
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AI skills launch expands product reach Moody's launched AI skills that plug its ratings and research into major AI platforms like Microsoft 365 Copilot. This makes its data more useful and harder to replace, supporting future revenue and a higher stock price.
New product that strengthens Moody's competitive position and long-term growth.
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Credit ratings integrated into Solana blockchain Moody's put its credit ratings directly on Solana's blockchain for tokenized bonds. This opens a new digital-asset channel and shows Moody's is adapting to how bonds may trade in the future, a plus for the stock.
New blockchain integration that expands Moody's addressable market.
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Q1 earnings beat and strong private credit growth Moody's beat first-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, helped by a recovery in credit markets. A separate bullish report noted over $2 trillion of debt rated in Q1 and private credit revenue up more than 80%, reinforcing the growth story.
Confirms financial strength and highlights a key growth driver.
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Iran ceasefire collapse triggers risk-off selloff Moody's shares fell 2.6% after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over, sparking a broad risk-off move. Higher bond yields and credit-stress fears hurt financial firms whose earnings depend on market activity, though this is a short-term market reaction.
Only negative driver this period, showing a real counterweight to the positive news.
Latest
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Moody's beats Q2, lifts buybacks, embeds risk data in AI workflows
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Q2 earnings beat and bigger buyback Moody's second-quarter profit jumped 31% to $4.68 a share, beating forecasts, on revenue up 15% to $2.19 billion. It raised its share buyback plan to as much as $3.0 billion and nudged up its full-year earnings guidance, a direct boost to the stock.
This is the period's biggest new event and the main reason MCO moved.
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Margin guidance trimmed even as EPS rises Moody's slightly cut its 2026 operating margin outlook to 44%-45% from about 45%, even while lifting the low end of its earnings guidance. The trim is a small counterweight: it signals some cost pressure, but the raised buyback and profit beat outweigh it.
It is the honest counterweight inside the same earnings report readers need to weigh.
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Risk data embedded in Intapp's AI workflows Moody's expanded its partnership with Intapp to put its risk data inside Intapp's AI tools for legal, private capital and accounting clients. This makes Moody's data part of daily decisions, deepening reliance and making it harder for rivals to replace, supporting future revenue.
It is a new distribution deal that strengthens Moody's competitive position.
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Moody's warns on AI debt, European banks spend more Moody's itself flagged 'no playbook' for AI-driven borrowing, showing its analytical relevance, while a Moody's survey found European banks raising risk, compliance and AI spending. Both point to steady demand for its ratings and analytics, a mild positive for the stock.
These new reports show demand for Moody's core services holding up.
Q3 2026
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Moody's beats Q2, lifts buybacks, embeds risk data in AI workflows
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Q2 earnings beat and bigger buyback Moody's second-quarter profit jumped 31% to $4.68 a share, beating forecasts, on revenue up 15% to $2.19 billion. It raised its share buyback plan to as much as $3.0 billion and nudged up its full-year earnings guidance, a direct boost to the stock.
This is the period's biggest new event and the main reason MCO moved.
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Margin guidance trimmed even as EPS rises Moody's slightly cut its 2026 operating margin outlook to 44%-45% from about 45%, even while lifting the low end of its earnings guidance. The trim is a small counterweight: it signals some cost pressure, but the raised buyback and profit beat outweigh it.
It is the honest counterweight inside the same earnings report readers need to weigh.
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Risk data embedded in Intapp's AI workflows Moody's expanded its partnership with Intapp to put its risk data inside Intapp's AI tools for legal, private capital and accounting clients. This makes Moody's data part of daily decisions, deepening reliance and making it harder for rivals to replace, supporting future revenue.
It is a new distribution deal that strengthens Moody's competitive position.
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Moody's warns on AI debt, European banks spend more Moody's itself flagged 'no playbook' for AI-driven borrowing, showing its analytical relevance, while a Moody's survey found European banks raising risk, compliance and AI spending. Both point to steady demand for its ratings and analytics, a mild positive for the stock.
These new reports show demand for Moody's core services holding up.
News & notes movingMCO
United States
MCO
Scope warns US debt could hit 160% of GDP within 10 years
Scope Ratings has warned that US government debt could rise to around 160% of gross domestic product, or GDP, within the next 10 years, while net interest costs could climb to exceptionally high levels by 2032. It said large budget deficits and continuously rising borrowing could make the United States more vulnerable to shifts in investor confidence, and that the current US fiscal trajectory is not sustainable over the medium term without stronger economic growth or significant increases in government revenue and cuts in spending. Scope also warned of risks from an upcoming conflict in Congress over the US debt ceiling. Despite fiscal concerns, Scope kept its US credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook, three notches below Scope's highest rating, and currently rates the US two notches below Moody's Ratings, Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings after its latest downgrade during the 2025 debt-ceiling standoff. No major credit rating agency now gives the US a top rating, after Moody's downgraded the US last year. Scope is a European credit rating agency and one of five firms used by the European Central Bank, or ECB, to assess collateral, and the only one of that group based in Europe.
Scope Ratings · Capital · Positive Scope Ratings is the subject, warning on US debt trajectory while affirming its AA- US rating with a stable outlook.
MCO · Capital · Neutral Mentioned only as a comparison: Scope rates the US two notches below Moody's, Fitch and S&P after Moody's downgraded the US last year.
SPGI · Capital · Neutral Named only for context as one of the agencies whose US rating is above Scope's, with no company-specific development.
Fitch Ratings · Capital · Neutral Referenced only as a peer rating agency ranked above Scope on the US; no Fitch-specific news.
Moody's and Allvue Launch Private Credit Risk Model
Moody's Corporation and Allvue Systems announced the launch of the Moody's Analytics EDF-X Private Credit Model, a forward-looking credit risk model purpose-built for the private credit market. The model, powered by de-identified private credit borrower performance data contributed by Allvue, identifies early signals of borrower stress such as covenant waivers and payment-in-kind arrangements before they appear as missed payments or defaults. It is the first Moody's model calibrated directly on observed private credit performance, complementing the existing Moody's Analytics credit risk models, and it separately estimates the likelihood of hard credit events and the soft credit events that often precede them. Moody's projects private credit to approach $4 trillion in assets by 2030, and the model is now available to customers of both firms through the Moody's Analytics EDF-X API. More than 1,000 private capital firms use Allvue solutions, directly or through their fund administrators, and the contributed data is de-identified and contractually governed so that no individual firm is identifiable.
MCO · Technology · Positive Moody's launched the EDF-X Private Credit Model, a new product built on observed private credit performance data, expanding its analytics offering.
Allvue Systems, LLC · Technology · Positive Allvue contributed de-identified borrower performance data to power the jointly launched Moody's Analytics EDF-X Private Credit Model.
HealthEquity Appoints Moody's CFO Noémie Heuland to Board
HealthEquity, Inc. announced that Noémie Heuland, Chief Financial Officer of Moody's Corporation, has been elected to its board of directors effective Sept. 24, 2026. Heuland will also serve on the Board's Audit and Risk Committee and Cybersecurity and Technology Committee. Her appointment expands the Board to 11 directors, nine of whom are independent. Heuland has served as CFO of Moody's since April 2024, and previously was CFO at Dayforce, Inc. from October 2020 to February 2024, after 12 years in finance leadership roles at SAP. HealthEquity, the largest independent health savings account custodian by account volume, administers HSAs and other consumer-directed benefits for nearly 18 million accounts.
Moody's Downgrades Botswana to Baa2, Outlook Stable
Moody's Ratings has downgraded Botswana's long-term issuer ratings to Baa2 from Baa1, citing a sustained weakening in fiscal resilience as lower diamond revenues and persistent budget deficits drive steady accumulation of sovereign debt. The agency simultaneously shifted the credit outlook to stable from negative, signaling that risks to the Southern African nation's fiscal trajectory appear balanced at the new, lower rating level. Moody's projects Botswana's gross debt burden to expand to 41% of GDP by fiscal year 2027, up from 31% in fiscal 2025, and potentially approach 50% by the decade's end, while fiscal deficits are expected to narrow incrementally from roughly 6.3% of GDP to 5.8% over the same period. Against that backdrop, Moody's lowered Botswana's local-currency and foreign-currency country ceilings to A2 and A3, respectively, noting that interest payments are projected to consume 5.9% of revenue by fiscal 2027. The stable outlook balances structural pressures against Botswana's institutional stability, deep domestic capital markets, and foreign exchange reserves covering approximately six months of imports, with governance continuity following the peaceful 2024 political transition providing capacity to absorb near-term execution risks.
MCO · Regulation · Neutral Moody's is the agency issuing the Botswana downgrade, but the action concerns a sovereign rating, not the company's own credit or business.
S&P Global to acquire blockchain security firm OpenZeppelin
S&P Global announced on September 17 that it has agreed to acquire blockchain security firm OpenZeppelin. The purchase price was not disclosed, and the deal is subject to customary conditions. S&P Global said the acquisition complements its risk assessment and ecosystem development capabilities in the digital asset market, with President Yann Le Pallec stating that OpenZeppelin's technology and expertise complement the company's ability to assess risks in on-chain technology. Founded in 2015, OpenZeppelin runs an open-source smart contract library regarded as the de facto industry standard, along with security audit services. More than 37 trillion dollars in value has been transferred through the library, which has over 900 audits to its name and has detected more than 10,000 vulnerabilities. After the acquisition, OpenZeppelin will continue as an independent business unit, with Demian Brener remaining as CEO, and the library will continue to be freely available on GitHub. S&P Global also led an investment in crypto market data firm Kaiko on September 14, while rival Moody's began providing ratings data on Solana in June, underscoring intensifying competition among the major ratings agencies over on-chain services.
SPGI · Capital · Positive S&P Global agreed to acquire blockchain security firm OpenZeppelin, expanding its digital-asset risk assessment capabilities.
OpenZeppelin · Capital · Positive OpenZeppelin is being acquired by S&P Global and will continue as an independent business unit under its current CEO.
MCO · Competition · Neutral Moody's is cited as a rival intensifying competition in on-chain ratings/services, but no company-specific development is reported.
Wall Street Bets on First Fed Rate Hike in Over Three Years
Wall Street is betting on a nearly 93% chance the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this afternoon for the first time in more than three years, lifting them by a quarter point to a new range of 3.75%-4%. Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matt Luzzetti called the case for a hike strong, pointing to solid economic growth, a rebounding job market, and inflation showing limited evidence of falling back toward the Fed's 2% goal, with oil climbing back over $100 a barrel amid renewed Middle East tensions. JPMorgan Chase chief economist Michael Feroli sees a closer call, noting the Fed's preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures index has been above 3% every month this year, while estimating the three-month annualized core PCE at 2.7% through August. Luzzetti expects three total hikes, on Wednesday, in December and next March, unwinding the three risk-management cuts made in the fall of 2025, while Feroli anticipates one more hike in December. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned on X that a hike would be a policy mistake because energy prices and tariffs are supply shocks rate hikes cannot fix, and said the Fed can wait. The decision is due at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, followed by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Moody's Acquires Minority Stake in Philippine Rating Services
Moody's has agreed to acquire a minority stake in Philippine Rating Services, known as PhilRatings, a domestic credit rating agency in the Philippines. The investment expands Moody's Asia-Pacific network of domestic rating agency affiliates. Wendy Cheong, Managing Director and Regional Head of Asia Pacific at Moody's Ratings, said strong domestic debt markets are essential to supporting sustainable economic growth, adding that PhilRatings has built deep insight into the local market and that its ratings serve as a strong complement to Moody's global views on credit for investors in the Philippines. Following Moody's investment, PhilRatings will continue to operate independently with its own management, governance, and credit rating processes.
MCO · Capital · Positive Moody's acquires a minority stake in PhilRatings, expanding its Asia-Pacific affiliate network.
Philippine Rating Services Corporation (PhilRatings) · Capital · Positive PhilRatings receives a minority investment from Moody's while continuing to operate independently.
Blue Owl Capital has reportedly cut the value of its loans to specialty materials maker Loparex to near zero, raising fresh concerns about valuation practices in the $1.8 trillion private credit sector. The write-down, reported by Bloomberg News, involves Blue Owl's publicly traded business development company, OBDC, which moved its exposure to Loparex to non-accrual status after the second quarter. Moody's this week downgraded Loparex's Probability of Default Rating over missed term loan interest payments, with a negative outlook reflecting concerns that a Chapter 11 bankruptcy could follow. The rapid deterioration shows that a loan recently valued close to par can lose value quickly once a borrower enters financial distress.
OBDC · Capital · Negative OBDC moved its Loparex loan exposure to non-accrual and slashed the loan value to near zero, a direct hit to its portfolio valuation.
Loparex Group · Capital · Negative Loparex's loan was written down to near zero and Moody's flagged possible Chapter 11 after missed term loan interest payments.
OWL · Capital · Negative Blue Owl Capital's private credit valuation practices face fresh concerns after the Loparex write-down at its BDC.
MCO · Capital · Negative Moody's downgraded Loparex's Probability of Default Rating over missed interest payments, a credit-rating action tied to the loan write-down.
Report: Malaysia Data Centers Face Power and Water Constraints
BIMB Securities said in a report that Malaysia's rapidly growing data center industry is facing increasing power and water constraints as developers move into the activation and operation phase. Johor is the center of expansion, with power availability remaining a key constraint, while water resource sustainability has become an important factor in project approvals. The expansion of AI-related data center capacity could add further pressure on resources. Moody's Ratings said that Malaysia's data center expansion is expected to have the highest positive impact on GDP and employment compared to markets in South and Southeast Asia. The activated IT capacity in Johor stood at 1,110 megawatts in the first half of this year, with another 602 megawatts under construction and 2,486 megawatts in the development pipeline.
BIMB Securities · · Neutral BIMB Securities is the report's author flagging power and water constraints on Malaysia data centers, but no company-specific financial impact is stated.
MCO · · Neutral Moody's is cited only for a general positive GDP/employment view on Malaysia's data center expansion, not a company-specific development.
Aon's largest-ever acquisition, the $17 billion purchase of USI Insurance Services from KKR, will add $17 billion in borrowed funds and delay earnings benefits, with the net purchase price coming to $16.7 billion after accounting for certain tax attributes. The deal, announced on August 31, 2026, is the second multibillion-dollar middle-market insurance acquisition Aon has pursued in three years, following its $13 billion purchase of NFP in 2024. Aon plans to issue $17.5 billion in new debt, including a $4 billion term loan and $13.5 billion in senior notes, which will push leverage to an estimated 4.8 times adjusted EBITDA at closing, nearly double the 2.8 times ratio before the announcement. S&P Global Ratings revised Aon's outlook to negative, while Moody's shifted to stable, citing leverage and integration concerns. The deal will freeze share buybacks, and Aon expects the acquisition to become accretive to adjusted earnings per share only in 2028, implying dilution through 2027. USI, the tenth-largest U.S. insurance broker with about $3 billion in annual revenue, gives Aon access to the middle-market commercial insurance segment, estimated at over $40 billion, and combined with NFP, the platform is expected to generate $6.5 billion in revenue.
Nvidia Partners with Six Firms to Raise $500 Billion for AI Chips
Nvidia has announced partnerships with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to launch compute financing platforms aimed at raising over $500 billion for AI infrastructure, with CEO Jensen Huang saying Nvidia could backstop up to $125 billion, or 25%, of potential deals. Blackstone President Jon Gray said on CNBC that AI compute will be seen as a financeable asset class, similar to how mortgage lenders assess homes. The move comes amid rising skepticism about AI spending, and Nvidia shares fell after the deal was first reported, erasing more than $70 billion in market value. Blackstone, one of six partners, has seen AI compute demand across its portfolio companies surge sevenfold this year and has prior experience financing AI infrastructure for companies like Anthropic. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink compared this moment to the creation of mortgage-backed investments in the 1970s, but commentators have flagged circular financing concerns, and Moody's has warned that heavy capex is squeezing free cash flow and pushing tech giants toward more debt.
Artificial Intelligence › AI Compute & Accelerator Silicon ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Compute Cloud & Neoclouds ▲Capital
NVDA · Capital · Negative Nvidia shares fell after the deal was reported, erasing $70B in market value, amid skepticism about AI spending and circular financing concerns.
APO · Capital · Positive Apollo is one of six partners in Nvidia's $500B AI compute financing platform, directly expanding its investment opportunities.
BAM · Capital · Positive Brookfield is a partner in the financing platform, gaining access to large-scale AI infrastructure deals.
BLK · Capital · Positive BlackRock is a partner in the $500B AI compute financing initiative, enhancing its asset management business.
BX · Capital · Positive Blackstone is a partner and sees AI compute demand surge sevenfold, with prior experience financing AI infrastructure.
GS · Capital · Positive Goldman Sachs is a partner in the financing platform, positioning it to earn fees from large AI infrastructure deals.
Moody's Embeds Credit Data in Google Cloud's Gemini Enterprise
Moody's is embedding its credit ratings and risk intelligence directly into Google Cloud's Gemini Enterprise for Financial Services, expanding a partnership that could make the ratings provider's data more valuable inside AI-driven workflows. The integration gives Gemini Enterprise users access to Moody's credit ratings, research and curated intelligence through Moody's Credit Model Context Protocol, or MCP. By grounding Gemini outputs directly in Moody's proprietary content, Google can offer financial professionals AI-generated analysis based on established credit data rather than relying solely on general-purpose models. The agreement fits Moody's broader strategy of putting its intelligence inside the software and workflows customers already use, potentially deepening engagement and defending the value of its proprietary datasets as generative AI changes how financial research is consumed. For Alphabet, the deal strengthens Gemini Enterprise's credibility in regulated financial workflows, with the bigger test being whether specialized integrations help Google Cloud win more enterprise workloads from Microsoft and Amazon.
Moody's shares have gained 5.6% since its latest earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500. The company reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $4.68 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.24, with revenues of $2.19 billion also topping expectations. Moody's narrowed its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $16.50 to $17.00 per share and expects revenues to increase in the high-single-digit percent range. The company also expanded its restructuring program in July 2026, targeting $300 million to $350 million in annualized savings. Zacks analysts note that earnings estimates have trended downward over the past month, and the stock carries a Zacks Rank of 3, or Hold.
S&P Global Expands Microsoft Collaboration to Integrate AI Data into Copilot
S&P Global has expanded its collaboration with Microsoft to bring AI-ready data and analytics into Microsoft 365 Copilot workflows. The integration gives clients access to S&P Global's proprietary intelligence directly inside familiar Microsoft 365 tools, aiming to streamline financial analysis, company research, and benchmarking for enterprise users. The move supports S&P Global's focus on AI-native experiences and deeper integration of its Market Intelligence offering into day-to-day operations. The partnership strengthens S&P Global's competitive position versus peers such as MSCI and Moody's that are pursuing their own AI distribution paths.
MSCI reported second-quarter revenues of $867 million, up 12.2% year over year, in line with analyst expectations but marking the weakest performance against estimates among its peers. The stock has fallen 8.5% since the report and currently trades at $572.27. Among the ten financial exchanges and data stocks tracked, Morningstar posted the best quarter with revenues of $663.2 million, up 9.6% and beating estimates by 2.2%, while S&P Global was the weakest with revenues of $4.15 billion, up 10.4% but issuing full-year EPS guidance slightly below expectations. Nasdaq and Moody's also beat estimates, with Moody's achieving the biggest beat and fastest revenue growth of the group at 15.1%.
MSCI · Capital · Negative MSCI's Q2 revenue rose 12.2% but was in line with estimates, marking the weakest performance against estimates among peers, and stock dropped 8.5%.
MCO · Capital · Positive Moody's beat estimates and had the fastest revenue growth of the group at 15.1%.
MORN · Capital · Positive Morningstar posted the best quarter with revenues up 9.6% and beating estimates by 2.2%.
SPGI · Capital · Negative S&P Global was the weakest with revenues up 10.4% but issuing full-year EPS guidance slightly below expectations.
NDAQ · Capital · Positive Nasdaq beat estimates, as mentioned in the article.
Moody's Corporation Elects Keith Demmings to Board of Directors
Moody's Corporation announced that Keith Demmings has been elected to its Board of Directors, effective November 1, 2026. Demmings, 54, currently serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of Assurant, Inc., a position he has held since January 2022, and has also served on Assurant's Board of Directors since that time. He joined the predecessor to Assurant in 1997 and has held leadership positions of increasing responsibility, including President of Assurant from 2021 to 2022 and Executive Vice President and President, Global Lifestyle from 2016 to 2021. Vincent Forlenza, Chairman of Moody's Corporation, said Demmings' proven leadership, global operating experience and deep insurance expertise will be a tremendous asset to the Board.
Hackers Create 72 Fake Websites Targeting Blackstone, KKR, and CME Employee Data
A ransomware group attempted to attack dozens of major US financial and business firms by creating at least 72 fake websites to steal passwords and authentication data from employees at targeted companies such as Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, KKR, Bain Capital, Bridgewater Associates, TPG, CME Group, and Moody’s. The hackers called employees’ personal mobile phones, posing as IT support, and tricked them into updating passkeys or multi-factor authentication, then directed them to fake websites with credible-sounding names like “passkeyhelpdesk” or “secure-passkey.” Google said that over five weeks, the cybercriminal group set up digital traps for more than 200 companies, including non-financial firms like Uber, Zillow, Levi Strauss, and law firms Paul Hastings and Greenberg Traurig. In some cases, companies paid ransoms, but it has not been confirmed whether the attempted attacks on the named firms were successful.
S&P Global Set to Report Q2 Earnings With Revenue Expected to Rise 9.3%
S&P Global is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings before market hours on Tuesday. Analysts expect revenue to grow 9.3% year on year, an acceleration from the 5.8% increase recorded in the same quarter last year. The company beat revenue expectations last quarter, reporting $4.17 billion, up 10.4% year on year, though full-year EPS guidance slightly missed estimates. Peers Nasdaq and Moody's have already reported Q2 results, with revenue beats of 3% and 4.8% respectively. S&P Global shares are up 4.8% over the last month, heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $518.72 compared to the current share price of $428.10.
SPGI · Capital · Neutral S&P Global is about to report Q2 earnings; revenue expected to rise 9.3% but full-year EPS guidance previously missed estimates.
MCO · Capital · Neutral Moody's is mentioned as a peer that already reported a revenue beat of 4.8%, providing context but no direct impact on S&P Global's earnings.
NDAQ · Capital · Neutral Nasdaq is mentioned as a peer that already reported a revenue beat of 3%, providing context but no direct impact on S&P Global's earnings.
Global Bond Yields Hit Highest Since 2008 as Brent Surges Above $100
Global government bond yields have climbed to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with the Bloomberg Global Treasury Index reaching 3.68% as rising energy prices reignite inflation fears. Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel on Thursday amid renewed Middle East hostilities, intensifying pressure on debt markets ahead of key central bank decisions. UK gilt yields have closed above 5% for their longest streak in nearly two decades, Germany’s 10-year yield hit its highest since 2011, and the US 30-year yield is near its 2007 peak, while Japan’s 40-year yield rose 10 basis points to exceed 4%. Strong US data has shifted market expectations toward possible rate hikes, with traders pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of a Federal Reserve increase at the July meeting, and reduced forward guidance has pushed the ICE BofA MOVE Index to a two-month high. The selloff is seen as a broader risk for corporate financing, equity valuations, and indebted governments, with BlackRock’s iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF down nearly 5% over the past month and Moody’s warning of a new era of structurally higher inflation and rates.
European banks boost risk, compliance and AI investment to stay competitive, Moody’s finds
European banks are sharply increasing investment in risk management, compliance, and artificial intelligence to counter rising fraud and competition, according to a new Moody’s report. The study, based on a survey of 348 senior banking decision-makers, found that 66% of European banks cite rising fraud and sanction enforcement as a major challenge, compared with 44% in the US and 54% in Asia-Pacific. In response, 70% of European compliance teams are investing in regulatory compliance and 48% in governance, the highest of any region, while 61% of banks say increased competition from new entrants is driving sharper risk and compliance investment. The report highlights that Europe favors gradual, governed AI augmentation with human-in-the-loop oversight rather than full automation, aiming to build an integrated view of risk while meeting regulatory expectations.
Cybersecurity & Digital Trust › Security Operations (SIEM/SOAR/XDR/MDR) ▲Demand
Cybersecurity & Digital Trust › Data Security & Cyber Resilience ▲Demand
Cybersecurity & Digital Trust › AI Security & Agent Guardrails ▲Demand
Artificial Intelligence › AI Applications & Copilots ▲Demand
MCO · Demand · Positive Moody's report shows European banks increasing investment in risk and compliance, driving demand for Moody's analytics and ratings services.
Moody's Earnings Beat Puts Valuation Back in Focus
Moody's reported second quarter results that exceeded market expectations, lifted full year guidance, and announced a larger share repurchase plan. The stock closed at $472.24, and one widely followed narrative pegs its fair value at $473.36, implying the shares are about 20% undervalued. However, that view contrasts with a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.5 times, which is above the company's fair ratio of 17.7 times and the peer average of 23.8 times, though below the Capital Markets industry average of 39.1 times. The earnings beat and guidance upgrade come after a volatile period, with the share price down 9.01% over the past week but still showing a 3.55% return over 90 days and a 37.73% total shareholder return over three years.
Moody's expands Intapp partnership to embed risk data in AI workflows
Moody's Corporation is expanding its partnership with Intapp to integrate Moody's financial risk intelligence into Intapp's AI platform. The integration will embed Moody's data into Intapp's Celeste agentic AI for legal, private capital, and accounting professionals. The collaboration aims to align with emerging open standards and broaden access to Moody's analytics within client workflows. This move highlights how Moody's is applying its financial risk data beyond traditional credit and analytics products by placing it directly inside professional services tools, potentially deepening its role in client decision making.
OIC Launches CAT Scenarios Stress Test to Strengthen Thai Insurance Industry Against Future Catastrophes
The Office of Insurance Commission, or OIC, has launched the CAT Scenarios Stress Test project to assess the impact of natural disasters on the Thai insurance industry at a sector-wide level. Dr. Ayusri Khambanlue, Assistant Secretary-General for Regulatory Standard Development, chaired the opening meeting on July 6, 2026, joined by representatives from the Thai General Insurance Association, insurance companies, and project advisors including TIRD, Milliman, Moody’s, and PwC. The project will develop a stress testing framework using catastrophe scenarios tailored to Thailand’s risk context, covering three main scenarios: a severe 1-in-200-year flood event, a 1-in-200-year earthquake event, and a combined flood and earthquake occurring within the same year at a 1-in-100-year severity level. It will also assess impacts on financial positions, liquidity, and recovery paths over a three-year period. The project is divided into four phases and is expected to be completed by December 2026. The OIC expects the results to enhance risk management knowledge, strengthen the stability of the Thai insurance system, and support the development of proactive supervisory tools to cope with large-scale disasters in the future.
Thai Insurance Research and Development · Demand · Positive TIRD is named as a project advisor, which may lead to consulting revenue and industry recognition.
MCO · Demand · Positive Moody's is named as a project advisor, which may lead to consulting revenue.
Milliman · Demand · Positive Milliman is named as a project advisor, which may lead to consulting revenue.
PricewaterhouseCoopers · Demand · Positive PwC is named as a project advisor, which may lead to consulting revenue.
Pensions face AI debt risk as Moody's warns there is 'no playbook' for returns
Moody's Ratings Senior Vice-President Raj Joshi warns there is 'no playbook' for the massive capital expenditure fueling artificial intelligence, raising concerns that pension funds and insurers heavily exposed to AI-related debt may face inadequate returns. Morgan Stanley has structured some of the largest private credit deals on record, including $27 billion in debt financing for Meta's largest data hub and $35 billion for Broadcom, while also handling a multi-billion contract between Google and Terawulf that attracted more than three times the target demand for speculative low-grade bonds. With tech comprising over 50% of the S&P 500 and more than 15% of corporate bonds, pensions are increasingly tied to AI's success through passive index funds and debt holdings. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon cautioned that much of the capital deployed will not produce adequate returns, and the bank's economists noted that closing the gap between market valuations and potential AI profits requires increasingly optimistic assumptions. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink acknowledged that over $10 trillion in US infrastructure investment over the next decade will largely come from savings, pension, and insurance accounts.
Cloud & Digital Infrastructure › Mega-cap Hyperscalers ▼Capital
Artificial Intelligence › AI Data Center & Build-out ▼Capital
MCO · Capital · Positive Moody's issued the warning itself, highlighting its analytical relevance and potentially increasing demand for its credit rating services.
GS · Capital · Negative Morgan Stanley structured large AI-related private credit deals; Moody's warning that returns may be inadequate threatens the bank's deal profitability and reputation.
AVGO · Capital · Negative Moody's warns AI debt may yield inadequate returns; Broadcom is tied to large private credit deals ($35B) and its debt holdings could be at risk.
MS · Capital · Negative Morgan Stanley structured large AI-related debt deals; Moody's warns these may face inadequate returns, posing risk to its structured credit business.
BLK · Capital · Negative CEO Fink acknowledges $10T infrastructure investment from savings/pension accounts, but Moody's warning on AI debt returns poses risk to BlackRock's fixed-income portfolios.
META · Capital · Negative Moody's warns AI debt may yield inadequate returns; Meta's $27B data hub debt is cited as a large private credit deal.
Pre-market futures sink as oil prices rise and new tariffs hit Canada
Pre-market futures are in the red and sinking following a solid Tuesday session, pressured by higher spot oil prices due to hostilities at the Strait of Hormuz and new tariffs slapped on Canada this week. The Dow is down 93 points, the S&P 500 is down 28, the Nasdaq has fallen another 284 points, and the Russell 2000 is down 12. GE Vernova posted mixed second-quarter results, beating revenue estimates by 3.12% with $11.1 billion but missing earnings per share by 22% at $2.47 versus the $3.17 Zacks consensus estimate, partly due to $200 million in new tariffs on imported equipment, sending shares down 3% in early trading. Northern Trust and Moody's both outperformed earnings estimates by more than 10%, with Northern Trust up 1.25% and Moody's up 4.5% in early trading. After the close, Tesla, Alphabet, and IBM will report earnings, with Tesla expected to post a 25% gain in quarterly earnings and 14.7% revenue growth, Alphabet anticipated to deliver 24.24% earnings growth and 23.93% revenue growth, and IBM expected to show 4.64% earnings growth and 1.1% revenue growth.
Moody's lowers 2026 operating margin guidance, raises stock repurchases outlook
Moody's slightly lowered its 2026 operating margin guidance while raising its share buyback outlook, as second-quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 31% to $4.68, beating the consensus estimate by $0.43. Revenue increased 15% year-over-year to $2.19 billion, exceeding expectations by $110 million, and operating margin expanded 480 basis points to 47.9%. The company now expects 2026 operating margin in a range of 44% to 45%, down from approximately 45% previously, and raised its share repurchase forecast to up to $3.0 billion from about $2.5 billion. Moody's also modestly lifted the lower end of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $16.50 to $17.00 from $16.40 to $17.00, while continuing to project high-single-digit percent revenue growth. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share, unchanged from the prior quarter.
Moody's Corporation will host a conference call at 9:00 AM ET on July 22, 2026, to discuss its second-quarter 2026 earnings results. The live webcast can be accessed at ir.moodys.com, and the call can be joined by dialing +1 833 461 5787 in the US or +1 626 884 3620 internationally, with passcode 116 244 197.
Moody's Trades at 37 Times Earnings Ahead of July 22 Report
Moody's stock has stayed nearly flat year to date, underperforming the S&P 500's 9% gain, and trades at 37 times trailing earnings ahead of its second-quarter report on July 22. The wide-moat ratings giant, which shares a near-duopoly with S&P Global, faces headwinds from potential interest rate hikes in the second half of 2026 that could curb demand for its credit rating services. For 2026, Moody's expects high-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted operating margin expansion to 52%-53%, and adjusted EPS growth of 10%-14%, while planning $2.5 billion in buybacks from free cash flow of $2.8-$3.0 billion. However, concerns over its valuation and the macro environment have kept the stock rangebound, and the author suggests waiting for the earnings report before investing.
CME Group posts weakest Q1 results among financial exchanges and data peers
CME Group reported first-quarter revenues of $1.88 billion, up 14.5% year on year but falling short of analysts' expectations by 1.4%, making it the weakest performer against estimates among the ten financial exchanges and data stocks tracked. The group as a whole beat consensus revenue estimates by 1.1%, with Morningstar delivering the biggest beat at 2.9% on revenues of $644.8 million. FactSet posted the slowest revenue growth of the group at 6.4% to $622.9 million, while Moody's and MSCI reported revenues of $2.08 billion and $850.8 million, respectively. CME Group's stock has fallen 13.6% since reporting, contrasting with gains for FactSet, Moody's, and MSCI.
CME · Capital · Negative CME Group's Q1 revenue missed analysts' expectations by 1.4%, making it the weakest performer among peers, and its stock fell 13.6% since reporting.
MORN · Capital · Positive Morningstar delivered the biggest revenue beat at 2.9% on revenues of $644.8 million.
FDS · Capital · Positive FactSet posted the slowest revenue growth but its stock gained since reporting, contrasting with CME's decline.
MCO · Capital · Positive Moody's reported revenues of $2.08 billion and its stock gained since reporting.
MSCI · Capital · Positive MSCI reported revenues of $850.8 million and its stock gained since reporting.
QTS Expands AI Loan to $3.25 Billion, Drops $1 Billion Bond Sale
QTS Realty Trust, a data center operator owned by Blackstone, increased its planned term loan from $3 billion to $3.25 billion and scrapped a separate $1 billion bond sale, according to people familiar with the transaction. JPMorgan Chase is leading the loan offering, which is backed by a portfolio of QTS data centers known as Project Magnolia. Proceeds are expected to repay construction financing and other existing debt while covering additional corporate costs. The loan carries an interest rate of 2.25 percentage points above the U.S. benchmark and received a Baa3 rating from Moody's, placing it at the lower end of investment grade. The transaction is supported by 12 operational facilities already generating cash flow from tenants including Microsoft, potentially giving credit investors greater repayment visibility.
Moody's partners with Intapp to embed risk data inside AI workflows
Moody's and Intapp announced a partnership on July 14, 2026 to embed Moody's financial intelligence into Intapp's AI-powered professional workflow platform. The integration uses an open standard protocol to connect AI agents with Moody's risk data, entity screening, and company information inside client workflows, aiming to make Moody's datasets more accessible within day-to-day decision tools used by professional and financial services firms. This move shifts Moody's from being a data provider to being embedded inside workflows, potentially deepening client reliance on its risk intelligence and making its services harder to substitute versus competitors such as S&P Global and MSCI. The partnership also highlights execution risk, as client adoption and usage patterns sit partly outside Moody's direct control, and the open standard Model Context Protocol angle adds a distribution layer that existing narratives may not fully reflect yet.
Franklin Resources, Paymentus, and Moody's Shares Fall Amid Iran Ceasefire Collapse
Shares of Franklin Resources, Paymentus, and Moody's declined in afternoon trading after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over and vowed fresh strikes, triggering a broad risk-off move. Franklin Resources fell 2.5%, Paymentus dropped 2.9%, and Moody's slid 2.6% as diversified financials came under pressure. Asset managers, exchanges, brokerages, and consumer-lending firms are sensitive to market levels, transaction activity, and credit conditions, all of which deteriorate when volatility spikes. The surge in bond yields and fears of credit stress from higher energy prices further weighed on the sector, prompting investors to reduce exposure to earnings tied to financial-market health.
Moody’s Corporation seen as attractive long-term buy on AI-driven debt issuance and private credit growth
A bullish thesis on Moody’s Corporation highlights its dominant position in a legally protected credit ratings duopoly with S&P Global, controlling roughly 80% of the global ratings market. The company benefits from accelerating AI infrastructure investments and rapid private credit expansion, with Moody’s Investors Service rating more than $2 trillion of debt issuance in the first quarter of 2026, including over $100 billion tied to AI-related financings, while private credit revenue grew more than 80% year over year. Moody’s capital-light model generates free cash flow margins exceeding 33% and a return on equity of 62.1%, and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway holds a 13.5% stake. A $2.5 billion share repurchase program further supports per-share value, though no numerical upside target was specified.
MCO · Demand · Positive Moody's benefits from AI-driven debt issuance and private credit growth, with over $2 trillion rated in Q1 2026 and private credit revenue up >80%.
Climate Risk Management Market to Surge from $8.59B in 2026 to $19.08B by 2031
The climate risk management market is projected to grow from USD 8.59 billion in 2026 to USD 19.08 billion by 2031, at a compound annual growth rate of 17.3%. The growth is driven by regulatory emphasis on climate disclosure and resilience planning, with organizations adopting advanced platforms to manage exposure to climate-related risks guided by frameworks like ISSB and TCFD. Geospatial intelligence and scenario-based modeling are crucial, especially in North America, which is expected to hold the largest market share by 2026, and the fast-growing Asia Pacific region. Key players such as IBM, Deloitte, and Moody's are advancing platform capabilities with integrated geospatial and climate intelligence solutions.
Berkshire Hathaway Has Held Moody’s Corporation Since 2010
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has held Moody’s Corporation since 2010, with its stake now worth $10.7 billion. Berkshire initially disclosed 28.4 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2010, valued at $754 million. By the fourth quarter of 2013, the holding was reduced to 24.6 million shares, worth $1.9 billion at the time, and has remained unchanged since. The same number of shares is now valued at $10.7 billion, reflecting an average share price of $473. Mizuho lowered its price target on Moody’s to $521 from $524 with a Neutral rating after the company reported first-quarter revenue of $2.1 billion and earnings per share of $4.33, both exceeding analyst estimates. BMO raised its target to $489 from $463 with a Market Perform rating, citing optimism about Moody’s artificial intelligence implementation for data management.
Moody's Q2 Earnings Preview: EPS Expected to Rise 17.7%
Moody's Corporation is expected to report fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings soon, with analysts forecasting a profit of $4.19 per share, up 17.7% from $3.56 per share a year ago. The company has beaten Wall Street EPS estimates in each of its last four quarterly reports. For the full fiscal year, analysts project EPS of $16.69, an 11.7% increase from $14.94 in fiscal 2025, with further growth to $18.43 expected in fiscal 2027. Moody's shares have declined 7.2% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500's 19.9% gain and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund's 3.4% gain. On June 16, the stock rose 3.2% after the company announced integration of its connected intelligence platform with Amazon Quick, giving AWS customers direct access to Moody's ratings and data. Analysts hold a moderately bullish consensus with a Moderate Buy rating and an average price target of $536.32, implying 18.5% upside.
MCO · Capital · Positive EPS expected to rise 17.7% and company has beaten estimates in last four quarters; analyst consensus is moderately bullish with 18.5% upside.
Solana Could Stabilize and Recover Over Next Three Years
Solana's price could bottom out this year and gradually recover over the next three years, though it probably won't set a new record high. The token hit an all-time high of $295 in January 2025 before pulling back to about $73 amid interest rate fears and an April security breach. Catalysts for recovery include potential passage of the CLARITY Act, Moody's integration of credit ratings onto Solana's blockchain, the upcoming Alpenglow upgrade, and spot ETFs approved in late 2025. Bitcoin's next halving cycle in 2028 may also draw investors back to the crypto market.
Bitcoin Holds Above $64,000 as Geopolitical Tensions Ease
Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $64,352.14 on June 22, while Ethereum gained 1.5% and Solana slipped 0.4%. Risk sentiment continues to pressure crypto prices as fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve outweigh relief from easing geopolitical tensions. The Ethereum Foundation is grappling with the departure of another key executive, raising questions about governance and direction. Galaxy Digital research shows 30-day outflows from crypto ETFs reached $6.35 billion last week, though the drain appears to be slowing with Bitcoin ETFs losing only around $90 million on Friday. Positive news, including MoneyGram becoming an infrastructure partner and network validator for Solana and Moody’s expanding its Token Integration Engine to Solana’s network, has done little to help the token, which fell 16% over the past seven days.
Moody's Shares Drop 10.7% Over Six Months Amid Strong Earnings Growth
Moody's shares have fallen to $455 over the last six months, a 10.7% decline that contrasts with the S&P 500's 9% gain. The company's annualized revenue growth of 12.4% over the past two years exceeds its five-year trend, while earnings per share grew at a 22.5% compound annual rate over the same period, indicating improving profitability. Moody's has averaged a return on equity of 59.3% over the last five years, far above the sector average of around 10%. The stock currently trades at 26.3 times forward price-to-earnings.
Moody’s Beats First-Quarter 2026 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Moody’s Corporation exceeded market expectations for the first quarter of 2026, posting adjusted earnings per share of $4.33 against Wall Street consensus of $4.26 and total revenue of $2.08 billion. The company’s dual-engine business model, combining Ratings and Analytics, benefited from a recovery in global credit markets. Berkshire Hathaway has held a stake in Moody’s since the fourth quarter of 2010, with its position standing at 24.6 million shares as of the first quarter of 2026.
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