MSCI Inc. provides research-based data, analytics, and indexes supported by advanced technology worldwide. Its segments include Index, which offers indexes for indexed financial products, performance benchmarking, portfolio construction, and asset allocation, and licenses GICS and GICS Direct; Analytics, which provides risk management, performance attribution, portfolio management, and HedgePlatform; Sustainability and Climate, which helps institutional investors understand ESG impacts and navigate regulation; All Other – Private Assets, which covers private credit, real estate, and infrastructure data and tools; and Private Capital Solutions, which supports private asset investors across workflows. MSCI Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in New York, New York.
Q2 earnings: strong growth but higher expenses MSCI reported over 12% organic revenue growth and record asset-based fees, but earnings missed estimates and 2026 expense guidance was raised. The stock fell over 10% as investors focused on the higher cost outlook, though the core business remains healthy.
This is the main new event of the period and directly explains the stock's sharp move.
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Morgan Stanley cuts price target to $700 Morgan Stanley lowered its MSCI price target from $727 to $700, adding to negative sentiment after the earnings miss. Analyst downgrades can pressure the stock as investors reassess future growth and valuation.
This is a new analyst action that contributed to the stock's decline.
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UBS private markets partnership expands MSCI's partnership with UBS to build an AI-powered private markets platform was highlighted, expanding MSCI's data and analytics into private markets. This could increase demand for MSCI's services and support future revenue growth.
This is a new development that shows a potential growth driver for MSCI.
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Dividend affirmed and buybacks continue MSCI affirmed its quarterly dividend of $2.05 per share and continued share repurchases, signaling confidence in cash flow. This returns capital to shareholders and can support the stock price over time.
This is new information from the Q2 report that reinforces financial strength.
Q3 2026
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MSCI's strong growth offset by cost warning and analyst downgrade
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Strong revenue growth and record asset-based fees MSCI's Q1 revenue grew 14% and Q2 organic revenue rose over 12%, with record asset-based fees. This shows the core business is healthy and expanding, supporting the stock's long-term value.
This explains the positive fundamental momentum behind MSCI's business.
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Expansion into climate and private markets data MSCI acquired First Street for $120 million and partnered with UBS to expand climate and private markets data. These moves broaden MSCI's offerings and open new growth avenues.
This highlights strategic actions that could drive future growth.
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Q2 earnings miss and raised expense guidance MSCI's Q2 earnings missed estimates and the company raised its 2026 expense guidance, sending shares down over 10%. Higher costs are squeezing profits and worrying investors.
This directly caused a sharp stock price decline and reflects cost pressures.
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Analyst downgrade and classification risk Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $700, and MSCI flagged potential Indonesia downgrade risk. These concerns weighed on investor sentiment and added uncertainty.
This shows external and regulatory risks that negatively impacted the stock.
News & notes movingMSCI
BrazilUnited States
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Wall Street Braces for Two Wildly Different Brazil Election Outcomes
With the first round of Brazil's presidential election taking place Sunday, Wall Street is gearing up with starkly different market predictions depending on the outcome of the neck-and-neck race between 80-year-old leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and 45-year-old right-winger Flavio Bolsonaro. In short, if Bolsonaro wins, Wall Street expects a rally in the country's bonds, currency and stocks. Kalshi markets now show Bolsonaro favored to win 60% to Lula's 39%, though prediction markets are prohibited in Brazil and may not reflect local sentiment. JPMorgan analysts say that if Brazil enters another period of reform, interest rates could decline to their neutral level, 6% in real terms and 10% in nominal terms, and they would be thinking about MSCI Brazil upside potential between 21% and 41%, with the forward P/E moving from a current 8.6 to as high as 13.3. JPMorgan also calls the currency outcome bimodal, with USD/BRL moving to 5.50 if Lula wins and 4.90 if Bolsonaro wins.
USDBRL.FOREX · Monetary · Negative JPMorgan calls USD/BRL bimodal: 5.50 if Lula wins, 4.90 if Bolsonaro wins, implying real strengthens under Bolsonaro.
JPM · Monetary · Neutral JPMorgan analysts forecast Brazil rate cuts and MSCI Brazil upside depending on election outcome, but no direct impact on JPMorgan itself.
MSCI · Capital · Positive JPMorgan sees MSCI Brazil upside of 21%-41% if Bolsonaro wins and reforms continue, benefiting MSCI Inc's index business.
Strategy Buys Back $139 Million of STRC, Bitcoin Holdings Unchanged at 845,050 BTC
Strategy repurchased 1,420,467 shares of its STRC preferred stock for $139.3 million in the week to September 13, according to an 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. That pulled back from the $176.3 million the Bitcoin treasury company spent the previous week, when its board doubled the authorization behind its digital credit securities repurchase program to $2 billion, leaving about $1.05 billion available under that program while a separate $1 billion authorization for MSTR common stock sits untouched. The company bought and sold no Bitcoin during the period, leaving its holdings unchanged at 845,050 BTC for a second consecutive week; Strategy acquired that stack for $63.73 billion at an average price of $75,412 per coin, inclusive of fees. Strategy repurchased none of its STRF, STRK, or STRD preferred shares and bought back no MSTR common stock, while its dollar balances stood at $5.10 billion in the USD Reserve and $1.30 billion in USD Cash as of September 13, down from $1.44 billion a week earlier. The buyback slowdown comes as Strategy awaits word on an MSCI proposal that could strip non-operating companies like Strategy from its global equity benchmarks, with feedback closing September 30 and a decision due October 16.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Pure Bitcoin-Treasury Vehicles Capital
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Bitcoin / Crypto Treasury & Store-of-Value Proxies Capital
MSTR · Capital · Positive Strategy repurchased 1,420,467 STRC preferred shares for $139.3 million under its digital credit securities repurchase program.
MSTR · Regulation · Neutral Strategy faces an MSCI proposal that could strip it from global equity benchmarks, with a decision due October 16.
BTC · · Neutral Strategy bought and sold no Bitcoin, leaving holdings unchanged at 845,050 BTC; no price-driving development for Bitcoin itself.
MSCI · Regulation · Neutral MSCI is awaiting feedback on a proposal that could strip non-operating companies like Strategy from its global equity benchmarks, but no decision has been made.
United StatesEuropean UnionUnited KingdomGermanyFranceEMEmerging markets
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MSCI Survey Finds 71% of Advisers Plan to Buy More Active ETFs Within 2 Years
A new MSCI survey of 450 advisers in the United States and Europe found that 71% plan to increase their use of active exchange-traded funds within two years, while 87% already invest in active ETFs and 62% plan to raise their passive allocation. The ETF Intelligence Survey 2026 points to substitution as much as new money, with 58% saying a new active ETF from a manager they already use would most likely displace an existing mutual fund or a UCITS holding, and half of respondents saying they would switch to an active ETF version of a strategy they already hold. Regulators cleared the path earlier this year when, in March, the SEC granted the last piece of relief letting broker-dealers trade ETF shares of multi-class funds, allowing asset managers to run mutual fund and ETF share classes inside one portfolio. Advisers drew a firmer line on private markets, with 49% saying they would access private or less liquid assets through an ETF but only 16% considering private markets a good fit for the wrapper, citing liquidity mismatch at 62%, valuation transparency at 50% and lack of track record at 44%. MSCI global head of index Jana Haines said passive ETFs remain the foundation of most adviser portfolios but active ETFs are increasingly becoming mainstream, and demand is moving beyond home markets, with 45% expecting to broaden equity allocations and, among them, 39% favoring emerging markets against 24% for developed ones.
MSCI · Demand · Positive MSCI's own survey shows 71% of advisers plan to buy more active ETFs and 45% expect to broaden equity allocations, pointing to rising demand for MSCI's index products.
Strategy Halts Bitcoin Buying, Spends $176.3M on Preferred Buybacks
Strategy bought no Bitcoin in the week to September 7, a week after ending a two-month BTC purchasing drought, and instead spent $176.3 million buying back its own preferred stock, the Bitcoin treasury company said in a filing on Tuesday. All of the buyback went to its STRC perpetual preferred, with 1,810,885 shares repurchased, funded from its USD Cash pool. The board doubled the authorization for the digital credit securities repurchase program from $1 billion to $2 billion, leaving $1.19 billion available as of September 7. The company still holds 845,050 BTC, bought for $63.73 billion at an average of $75,412 each, now worth roughly $65.7 billion at current prices. Strategy's Chair Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le also asked MSCI to withdraw an index rule that would remove the company from its global benchmarks, calling it discriminatory.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Bitcoin / Crypto Treasury & Store-of-Value Proxies Capital
MSTR · Capital · Positive Strategy spent $176.3M on preferred buybacks and doubled the repurchase authorization, signaling capital allocation.
MSCI · Regulation · Negative Strategy's executives asked MSCI to withdraw an index rule that would remove the company from its benchmarks, potentially affecting MSCI's index methodology.
Strategy Fights MSCI's New Criteria as Nonsensical, Aims to Drive Out Crypto Stocks
Strategy, the world's largest digital asset treasury company, has formally objected to MSCI's proposal to exclude companies with assets not used in operations from its indices, calling it discriminatory and unfounded. In a letter signed by Michael Saylor and Phong Le, the company said the proposal would damage MSCI's reputation as a trusted index provider. The proposal requires companies with less than 50% operating assets to undergo additional review, and a simulation in May 2026 suggested that Strategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake would be removed from the indices. Strategy argues that the criteria specifically target digital asset treasury companies while ignoring other businesses such as REITs and infrastructure companies. MSCI is accepting comments until September 30 and will announce results on October 16. Strategy's shares closed at $132.94, up 4.42%, after announcing the purchase of 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318 per Bitcoin.
MSCI · Regulation · Neutral MSCI's proposal to exclude digital-asset treasury firms from its indices is being formally contested by Strategy, which argues the criteria are discriminatory and would damage MSCI's reputation.
Turkey Tightens Hedge Fund Rules Amid Manipulation Concerns
Turkey's markets regulator has tightened rules governing hedge funds, introducing limits on concentrated investments and related-party exposure amid concerns over unusual market returns. Under updated guidelines from the Capital Markets Board, hedge funds will face limits on holdings of an issuer's free-floating shares ranging from 2% to 8%, depending on the company's free-float ratio. Funds will also be prohibited from investing more than 20% of their portfolios in capital-market instruments issued by affiliated entities controlled by their management. Additionally, the combined value of securities that individually represent more than 5% of a hedge fund's portfolio cannot exceed 20% of the portfolio. Funds have until the end of 2026 to comply fully, with excess positions reduced by at least one-third by Oct. 31 and two-thirds by Nov. 30. The measures follow concerns that some Turkish investment funds have gained tight control over liquidity in relatively illiquid stocks, coinciding with unusually large fund returns and steep gains in individual equities, raising questions about potential price manipulation. Global index providers MSCI, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and FTSE Russell have raised concerns about shareholder transparency, free floats, and market accessibility in Turkey, with MSCI warning it could review Turkey's emerging-market classification if authorities fail to improve transparency ahead of a November assessment.
MSCI · Regulation · Negative Turkey's tightened hedge fund rules and MSCI's warning about market accessibility could lead to a review of Turkey's emerging-market classification, potentially affecting MSCI's index business.
Data Center Deals Propel July CRE Sales to Best Since 2005
Data center deals pushed July commercial real estate transaction volume to its highest level since 2005, with total sales reaching $74.4 billion, according to MSCI's monthly Capital Trends report. BlackRock's acquisition of Aligned Data Centers and other data center transactions accounted for $33.8 billion of that total, while overall volume rose 78% year-over-year but only 1% excluding data centers. J.P. Morgan analysts noted that typical revisions add roughly 30% to monthly figures, pointing to strong momentum into the third quarter, though they flagged the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.5% as a concern. Data center volume surged 1,911% and portfolio deals rose 376%, while industrial was flat at $9 billion, apartments fell 16%, and retail dropped 13%. Office sales in urban cores jumped 48% to $2.2 billion, suburban offices rose 28% to $5.5 billion, hotels gained 61%, and senior housing increased 55%, with the average cap rate at 6.89%, up six basis points from June.
S&P Global Expands Microsoft Collaboration to Integrate AI Data into Copilot
S&P Global has expanded its collaboration with Microsoft to bring AI-ready data and analytics into Microsoft 365 Copilot workflows. The integration gives clients access to S&P Global's proprietary intelligence directly inside familiar Microsoft 365 tools, aiming to streamline financial analysis, company research, and benchmarking for enterprise users. The move supports S&P Global's focus on AI-native experiences and deeper integration of its Market Intelligence offering into day-to-day operations. The partnership strengthens S&P Global's competitive position versus peers such as MSCI and Moody's that are pursuing their own AI distribution paths.
Strategy Shares Fall on MSCI Removal Proposal and Bitcoin Sales
Shares of Strategy fell 3.5% in afternoon trading after MSCI proposed removing the company from its Global Investable Market Indexes. The proposed removal is part of a potential rule change affecting non-operating companies with large treasury asset holdings, a category that includes Strategy due to its massive Bitcoin reserves of roughly 840,400 BTC. A final decision is expected by October with changes planned for November 2026, and could force investment funds that track MSCI benchmarks to sell their shares. Adding to investor worries, a recent regulatory filing revealed the company sold 1,690 BTC, worth roughly $109 million, below its average cost basis to meet cash obligations and fund repurchases of its preferred shares. Bitcoin's price slipped below $63,000, continuing a recent downtrend since mid July, and because Strategy operates effectively as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin, the combination of index exclusion risks, uncharacteristic Bitcoin sales, and declining spot prices drove heavy selling pressure. After the initial drop, the shares shed some of the losses and rose to $94.58, down 2.3% from the previous close.
MSCI reported second-quarter revenues of $867 million, up 12.2% year over year, in line with analyst expectations but marking the weakest performance against estimates among its peers. The stock has fallen 8.5% since the report and currently trades at $572.27. Among the ten financial exchanges and data stocks tracked, Morningstar posted the best quarter with revenues of $663.2 million, up 9.6% and beating estimates by 2.2%, while S&P Global was the weakest with revenues of $4.15 billion, up 10.4% but issuing full-year EPS guidance slightly below expectations. Nasdaq and Moody's also beat estimates, with Moody's achieving the biggest beat and fastest revenue growth of the group at 15.1%.
MSCI · Capital · Negative MSCI's Q2 revenue rose 12.2% but was in line with estimates, marking the weakest performance against estimates among peers, and stock dropped 8.5%.
MCO · Capital · Positive Moody's beat estimates and had the fastest revenue growth of the group at 15.1%.
MORN · Capital · Positive Morningstar posted the best quarter with revenues up 9.6% and beating estimates by 2.2%.
SPGI · Capital · Negative S&P Global was the weakest with revenues up 10.4% but issuing full-year EPS guidance slightly below expectations.
NDAQ · Capital · Positive Nasdaq beat estimates, as mentioned in the article.
MSCI Reviews Dropping Strategy From Global Indexes
MSCI is reviewing whether to remove Strategy Inc and other Bitcoin treasury stocks from its global equity indexes, reopening a consultation that had been paused after a prior attempt last year. The proposal would treat Strategy more like a Bitcoin holding vehicle than a technology operating company, which could affect how index providers classify the stock. Potential exclusion from MSCI indexes may trigger forced selling by index funds that track those benchmarks and could reshape Strategy's institutional investor base. Strategy is publicly contesting the proposal, arguing that any rule change would have broad consequences for how equity markets handle Bitcoin focused corporate treasuries. The key marker to watch is MSCI's October 16, 2026 decision date, which will signal whether roughly US$2.8b of index tracking capital is likely to stay invested or start exiting Strategy over time.
MSCI to remove ride-hailing giant GoTo from Indonesia index
MSCI announced on the 12th that it will remove Indonesian ride-hailing giant GoTo from its Indonesia index at the end of this month. GoTo's market capitalization was once around 29 billion dollars, among the largest in Indonesia, but it has now fallen to 3.2 billion dollars, and the share price has been stuck at 50 rupiah, or less than 0.01 dollars, since mid-May. On the exchange's main trading market, 50 rupiah is the minimum trading price, and MSCI had frozen changes to the company's index composition in late May over concerns that GoTo's low liquidity would make it difficult for index investors to buy and sell the stock at sufficient scale. Index operator FTSE Russell removed GoTo from the mid-cap segment of its Global Equity Index Series in June after the company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange's development board, because the development board does not meet FTSE Russell's inclusion criteria for the index series.
Equifax and MSCI Shares Tumble Despite Double-Digit Earnings Growth
Shares of Equifax and MSCI fell sharply after both companies reported earnings that beat on revenue but disappointed on margins and outlook. Equifax posted 11% revenue growth and a 13% rise in adjusted earnings per share, yet its stock dropped nearly 7% as adjusted EBITDA margins declined across all segments and third-quarter guidance implied a sequential earnings decline. MSCI saw double-digit revenue and earnings growth but missed earnings expectations, with expenses up 9% driven by higher IT costs, sending its shares down about 11%. Analysts noted that rising compensation and technology costs, including AI-related spending, are pressuring margins at both data-intensive firms, overshadowing otherwise solid operational performance.
Financial stocks mixed as funds see largest four-week inflow since January 2022
Financial equity funds recorded their largest four-week inflow since January 2022, attracting $1.5 billion in the latest week and bringing cumulative inflows over the past four weeks to $8.8 billion, according to BofA Global Research citing EPFR data. The State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF edged up 0.09% to $56.31, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.61% to 7,411.98 points. Among megacap gainers, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial rose 7.36% to $22.89 amid updates on Japan's $550 billion U.S. investment plan, and JPMorgan Chase added 3.55% to $353.21 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to Buy. Crypto stocks surged, with Hut 8 jumping 20.27% to $109.99 after securing a second 15-year, $9.8 billion lease for 352 megawatts of IT capacity at its Beacon Point data center campus in Texas, and IREN gaining 10.26% to $37.07 after signing $2.8 billion in contracts and raising its 2026 annualized run-rate revenue target to over $4 billion. On the losing side, American Express fell 8.21% to $326.17 after second-quarter revenue missed estimates, MSCI dropped 12.39% to $550.79 on higher expense guidance, and HDFC Bank declined 11.94% to $23.23 following a profit miss.
MSCI Reports Second-Quarter Revenue of $867 Million and Affirms $2.05 Dividend
MSCI Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of US$867 million and net income of US$342 million, while affirming a quarterly dividend of US$2.05 per share and continuing share repurchases under its existing buyback program. The company also agreed to a partnership with UBS Group AG to enhance transparency in private markets through an AI-powered platform. An academic study raised questions about how MSCI's ESG ratings balance stability with timeliness for investors. The market focused on a higher expense outlook tied to AI and private-markets initiatives, which is seen as a key short-term catalyst for sentiment.
Artificial Intelligence › AI Applications & Copilots Competition
MSCI · Capital · Negative Higher expense outlook tied to AI and private-markets initiatives is a key short-term catalyst for sentiment, weighing on the stock.
UBSG.SW · Technology · Positive Partnership with MSCI to enhance transparency in private markets through an AI-powered platform.
UBS Group shares trade at CHF42.89 after MSCI private markets partnership
UBS Group has drawn attention after MSCI Inc. announced a partnership linking MSCI's data and analytics with UBS's alternatives expertise to address transparency challenges in private markets. The collaboration centers on an AI-powered platform that aims to standardize data, connect General Partners with institutional and private wealth investors, and give UBS clients a more integrated view across private and public market exposures. UBS Group last closed at CHF42.89, against a narrative fair value of CHF41.84, suggesting the stock is about 2.5% overvalued. The stock has logged a 31.48% three-month share price return and a 47.04% one-year total shareholder return, pointing to strong momentum despite a softer seven-day move. However, UBS still faces pressure from higher Swiss capital requirements that could constrain growth plans and lingering Credit Suisse integration risks that may weigh on profitability.
Digital Finance & Tokenization › Real-World Asset Tokenization ▲Technology
MSCI · Demand · Positive MSCI's partnership with UBS expands use of its data and analytics in private markets, likely increasing demand for its services.
UBSG.SW · Technology · Positive UBS gains an AI-powered platform to enhance private market transparency and client offerings, a positive product development.
UBSG.SW · Regulation · Negative Higher Swiss capital requirements and Credit Suisse integration risks pose regulatory and operational challenges.
S&P 500 Futures Rise as Investors Weigh Inflation and Earnings
US stock futures pointed higher with S&P 500 contracts up about 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures up roughly 1.3% as investors balanced fresh inflation worries against easing rate fears abroad. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.6% and markets saw roughly a 50 to 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Rising oil prices kept inflation risks alive, putting energy producers and consumer-facing companies in focus. Among top movers, Nebius Group jumped 18.78% after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% passive stake, Cerebras Systems surged 17.92%, and Bloom Energy climbed 14.82% after JPMorgan raised its price target. On the losing side, Boxabl declined 18.43%, Danaher fell 10.99% after issuing third-quarter revenue guidance of 2% to 3% growth, and MSCI dropped 10.14% after Morgan Stanley cut its price target to US$700 from US$727. Earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Verizon Communications, and American Express were set to dominate the next three sessions.
Dow Rebounds 385 Points as Chip Stocks Surge, Leading US Market Higher
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with the Dow rebounding 385.38 points to 52,224.64. The S&P 500 gained 0.89% and the Nasdaq jumped 1.29%, led by a strong recovery in semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index, or SOX, surged 5.2% for a second straight day, after falling more than 20% from its record high in late June. Despite the recent heavy sell-off, the chip index is still up nearly 75% since the start of the year. Investors are watching earnings from major technology companies this week, especially Alphabet, Intel, and Texas Instruments, to gauge the outlook for the AI business. 3M shares jumped 7.3% after raising its full-year profit forecast, while Hasbro surged 8.8% on demand for digital games and Magic: The Gathering. Danaher fell 11% after cutting its revenue outlook, and MSCI dropped 10% after increasing its operating expense forecast.
MSCI Sets Single-Stock Cap at 25% for US Value Index
Index provider MSCI announced it will temporarily cap the weight of any single issuer in the MSCI USA Enhanced Value Index at 25% to address potential concentration risk. This exceptional measure will be reviewed monthly and takes effect on September 1. Under the new rule, if the combined weight of a single issuer's securities exceeds 25% on any day, MSCI will reduce that issuer's weight to 20% and redistribute the excess proportionally among the remaining index constituents. MSCI said it is scrutinizing concentration levels across the Enhanced Value Index suite and will soon seek public feedback on proposed methodology enhancements to tackle this issue.
MSCI · Regulation · Neutral MSCI announces a temporary single-stock cap for its US Value Index, which is a regulatory/rule change affecting its own index methodology.
MSCI Reports Over 12% Organic Revenue Growth in Q2 2026
MSCI Inc reported organic revenue growth of over 12% in the second quarter of 2026, alongside adjusted EPS growth of nearly 19% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 14%. The company achieved a record asset-based fee run rate of $948 million, up 25% year-over-year, driven by nearly $40 billion in ETF-linked inflows and record AUM balances in products linked to MSCI indices. Organic subscription run rate growth exceeded 8% with a retention rate over 95%, while index subscription run rate grew over 11% and private capital solutions subscription run rate grew over 16%. MSCI repurchased $147 million of its shares at an average price of about $558 per share and raised its expense guidance due to recent acquisitions and higher performance-based compensation. The company also announced the acquisition of First Street, expected to add about $10 million of subscription run rate to the Sustainability and Climate segment.
MSCI · Capital · Positive MSCI reported strong organic revenue growth, adjusted EPS growth, and EBITDA growth, along with record asset-based fee run rate and share repurchases.
First Street · Demand · Positive First Street is being acquired by MSCI, expected to add about $10 million of subscription run rate to the Sustainability and Climate segment.
MSCI Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Increase Year over Year
MSCI reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $4.94 per share, up 18.5% year over year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.82%. Revenues increased 12.2% to $867 million, surpassing the consensus mark by 0.90%, driven by higher recurring subscription revenues and asset-based fees. The retention rate improved to 95.3%, while period-end AUM in ETFs linked to MSCI equity indexes reached $2.818 trillion. Index revenues rose 17.5% to $511 million, with recurring subscriptions and asset-based fees up 11.6% and 26.6% respectively, and the segment's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 77.8%. Analytics revenues grew 6.6% to $189.4 million, but adjusted EBITDA fell 5% as expenses outpaced revenue, contracting the margin to 46.5%. Sustainability and Climate revenues increased 3.4% to $91.9 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 12.3% and margin expanding to 38.7%. All Other – Private Assets revenues rose 4.9% to $74.7 million, though adjusted EBITDA declined 14.1% and margin contracted to 22.9%. MSCI raised its full-year 2026 operating expense outlook to $1.535-$1.575 billion and adjusted EBITDA expense guidance to $1.340-$1.370 billion, reflecting acquisitions and growth investments.
Stocks Gain as Chipmakers Rebound Ahead of Megacap Earnings
U.S. stock indexes climbed on Tuesday as a rebound in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks gathered pace. The S&P 500 rose 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.17%, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.26%. Chipmakers rallied after a recent selloff cheapened valuations, drawing dip buyers ahead of megacap technology earnings this week, starting with Alphabet on Wednesday. Software stocks were weak after Morgan Stanley downgraded several companies in the sector, including Adobe, Intuit, and Workday. Hasbro surged more than 10% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue and raising its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast, while 3M gained over 8% on stronger earnings and an improved outlook. Danaher fell more than 13% after issuing a weaker revenue growth forecast, and MSCI dropped over 10% on an earnings miss and higher expense guidance.
MSCI shares fall after Q2 earnings miss and 2026 expense outlook raised
MSCI shares dropped after the index provider reported second-quarter earnings that missed consensus and raised its 2026 expense guidance. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $4.94, missing estimates by $0.04, while revenue of $867 million, up 12.2% year-over-year, fell short by $3.03 million. Operating expenses rose 9.2% to $379.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA expenses increased 10.1% to $328.5 million, driven by higher technology, market data, and compensation costs, as well as $3.2 million in expenses from recent acquisitions. The company lifted its 2026 operating expense outlook to a range of $1.54 billion to $1.58 billion from $1.49 billion to $1.53 billion, and its adjusted EBITDA expense outlook to $1.34 billion to $1.37 billion from $1.31 billion to $1.34 billion, citing the impact of acquisitions including First Street and stronger business performance. Shares were 10.74% lower at $558.00 in pre-market trading.
MSCI declared a quarterly dividend of $2.05 per share, in line with the previous payout. The dividend is payable on August 28 to shareholders of record as of August 14, with the ex-dividend date also set for August 14. The forward yield stands at 1.31%. This marks the third consecutive quarter that the company has announced a dividend of $2.05.
S&P Global launches ETF Intelligence platform and projects US LNG as second largest net export industry
S&P Global Market Intelligence has launched ETF Intelligence, a new platform for exchange traded fund data and analytics, while an S&P Global Energy study projects that US LNG will become the nation's second largest net export industry within five years. The ETF Intelligence launch and the LNG export study signal an expansion of S&P Global's role in ETF analytics and energy market research. The company is trading at $450.84, with the share price up 4.7% over the past week and 7.9% over the past month, but down 12.1% year to date. The new platform aims to compete with other ETF data providers such as MSCI and Morningstar, while the LNG study reinforces S&P Global's position in energy analytics.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI launch consultation on GICS overhaul
S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI have opened a consultation on potential changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard. The review, which runs from July 17 to October 30, 2026, aims to ensure the GICS structure reflects current markets, with any resulting changes to be announced by November 2026. Key topics under review include the classification of artificial intelligence-related business models, restructuring of the semiconductors sub-industry, definition updates for high-performance computing as-a-service and AI data lifecycle services, classification of foundation model developers, updates to the application software sub-industry, and classification of listed investment companies. A select list of companies with market capitalizations exceeding USD 2 billion that may be affected is available to clients for illustrative purposes.
MSCI · Capital · Neutral MSCI co-launches GICS consultation; potential changes could affect index methodology but no direct financial impact stated.
SPGI · Capital · Neutral S&P Dow Jones Indices co-launches GICS consultation; potential changes could affect index methodology but no direct financial impact stated.
CME Group posts weakest Q1 results among financial exchanges and data peers
CME Group reported first-quarter revenues of $1.88 billion, up 14.5% year on year but falling short of analysts' expectations by 1.4%, making it the weakest performer against estimates among the ten financial exchanges and data stocks tracked. The group as a whole beat consensus revenue estimates by 1.1%, with Morningstar delivering the biggest beat at 2.9% on revenues of $644.8 million. FactSet posted the slowest revenue growth of the group at 6.4% to $622.9 million, while Moody's and MSCI reported revenues of $2.08 billion and $850.8 million, respectively. CME Group's stock has fallen 13.6% since reporting, contrasting with gains for FactSet, Moody's, and MSCI.
CME · Capital · Negative CME Group's Q1 revenue missed analysts' expectations by 1.4%, making it the weakest performer among peers, and its stock fell 13.6% since reporting.
MORN · Capital · Positive Morningstar delivered the biggest revenue beat at 2.9% on revenues of $644.8 million.
FDS · Capital · Positive FactSet posted the slowest revenue growth but its stock gained since reporting, contrasting with CME's decline.
MCO · Capital · Positive Moody's reported revenues of $2.08 billion and its stock gained since reporting.
MSCI · Capital · Positive MSCI reported revenues of $850.8 million and its stock gained since reporting.
Moody's partners with Intapp to embed risk data inside AI workflows
Moody's and Intapp announced a partnership on July 14, 2026 to embed Moody's financial intelligence into Intapp's AI-powered professional workflow platform. The integration uses an open standard protocol to connect AI agents with Moody's risk data, entity screening, and company information inside client workflows, aiming to make Moody's datasets more accessible within day-to-day decision tools used by professional and financial services firms. This move shifts Moody's from being a data provider to being embedded inside workflows, potentially deepening client reliance on its risk intelligence and making its services harder to substitute versus competitors such as S&P Global and MSCI. The partnership also highlights execution risk, as client adoption and usage patterns sit partly outside Moody's direct control, and the open standard Model Context Protocol angle adds a distribution layer that existing narratives may not fully reflect yet.
UBS Partners With MSCI to Build Private Markets Data Platform
UBS Group has entered into a partnership with MSCI to build a more transparent and efficient platform for private markets investing. The collaboration focuses on AI-powered analytics, standardized data, and improved connectivity for institutional and private wealth clients, targeting long-standing issues such as fragmented data, limited transparency, and complex fund discovery. The initiative aims to create a shared data and analytics framework that supports more informed allocation and monitoring across private equity, private credit, and real assets. UBS Group is a global wealth manager and investment bank with a large footprint in alternatives, where private markets play an increasingly important role for institutional and high-net-worth portfolios.
MSCI · Demand · Positive MSCI partners with UBS to build a private markets data platform, expanding its analytics business and client reach.
UBSG.SW · Technology · Positive UBS partners with MSCI to develop an AI-powered private markets platform, enhancing its alternatives offering for clients.
Financial Exchanges & Data Stocks Q1 Teardown: S&P Global Vs The Rest
Financial exchanges and data stocks reported a satisfactory first quarter, with aggregate revenues beating analyst consensus estimates by 1.1%. S&P Global posted revenues of $4.17 billion, up 10.4% year on year and exceeding expectations by 2.4%, though full-year EPS guidance slightly missed. Morningstar delivered the biggest beat among peers with revenues of $644.8 million, up 10.8% and topping estimates by 2.9%, while CME Group was the weakest performer, with revenues of $1.88 billion missing estimates by 1.4%. Nasdaq reported revenues of $1.41 billion, up 13.7% and beating by 2.2%, and MSCI posted revenues of $850.8 million, up 14.1% and beating by 1.4%. On average, share prices of the group are down 5.6% since the latest earnings results.
CME · Capital · Negative CME Group revenues missed estimates by 1.4%, the weakest performer in the group.
MORN · Capital · Positive Morningstar delivered the biggest beat among peers with revenues up 10.8% and topping estimates by 2.9%.
MSCI · Capital · Positive MSCI posted revenues of $850.8 million, up 14.1% and beating by 1.4%.
NDAQ · Capital · Positive Nasdaq reported revenues of $1.41 billion, up 13.7% and beating by 2.2%.
SPGI · Capital · Positive S&P Global posted revenues of $4.17 billion, up 10.4% and exceeding expectations by 2.4%, though full-year EPS guidance slightly missed.
MSCI Fair Value Debate Intensifies as ESG Expansion Draws Attention
MSCI is back in focus after Petra Funds Group announced a relationship that will integrate MSCI sustainability and climate datasets into Petra's PeerView ESG reporting platform for private market managers. The stock last closed at $608.09, while the most followed narrative on Simply Wall St puts fair value closer to $267, suggesting the stock is 128% overvalued. However, a discounted cash flow model points to a fair value of $663.47, implying MSCI trades 8.3% below its future cash flow value estimate. The investment thesis rests on durable pillars including permanent switching costs in the Index segment, secular tailwinds from passive investing growth, and an emerging private assets franchise replicating the Index playbook in a $10 trillion-plus private equity and credit market.
MSCI Stock Looks Near Fair Value While Earnings Seem Rich
MSCI stock has returned 29.7% over the past three years and sits near US$608, with valuation checks pointing to a company that looks closer to fairly valued on intrinsic value estimates while screening as expensive on market multiples. A discounted cash flow model using projected free cash flows, with last twelve month free cash flow of about $1.47 billion, estimates an intrinsic value of about $663 per share, implying the stock is roughly 8.3% undervalued. However, MSCI trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of about 33.5 times, well above a tailored fair P/E ratio near 17.3 times that factors in its margins, size, industry and risk profile, indicating investors are paying a premium for the earnings profile. The stock passes only 2 of 6 valuation checks, leaning more toward a quality stock priced on the rich side rather than a clear bargain. Recent moves to deepen climate and ESG data offerings, such as the planned First Street acquisition, support long-term cash flow expectations, while insider selling and regulatory questions around some index markets remain potential overhangs.
MSCI · Capital · Neutral DCF model suggests 8.3% undervaluation, but P/E ratio of 33.5x is well above fair P/E of 17.3x, indicating rich earnings multiple.
First Street · Technology · Positive Planned First Street acquisition deepens climate and ESG data offerings, supporting long-term cash flow expectations.
BlackRock and Vanguard EM ETFs See Record Performance Gap Over South Korea Classification
BlackRock's iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and Vanguard's FTSE Emerging Markets ETF have diverged by a record margin over the past year, driven by a 170% surge in South Korean stocks fueled by an AI rally. BlackRock's $150 billion IEMG returned nearly 40% in the 12 months through June 30, while Vanguard's $120 billion VWO gained roughly half that, because MSCI still classifies South Korea as an emerging market and FTSE Russell treats it as developed. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix accounted for nearly half the gains in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, with Korea's weighting second only to Taiwan. The gap has prompted some investors to reassess passive choices, with IEMG attracting over $22 billion in inflows versus VWO's roughly $11 billion, pushing its assets $30 billion above its rival. MSCI cites currency trading restrictions as a key obstacle to reclassification, while FTSE Russell points to Korea's high-income status and market reforms.
BLK · Capital · Positive IEMG ETF outperformed VWO due to MSCI's EM classification of South Korea, attracting $22B inflows and widening asset lead.
The Vanguard Group, Inc. · Capital · Negative VWO underperformed IEMG due to FTSE's developed classification of South Korea, attracting only $11B inflows and losing asset lead.
MSCI · Capital · Positive MSCI's classification of South Korea as EM is highlighted as a key factor driving IEMG's outperformance, reinforcing MSCI's index relevance.
MSCI · Regulation · Neutral MSCI's classification of South Korea as EM is challenged by FTSE's DM status, but no immediate change; currency restrictions cited.
000660.KO · Demand · Positive SK Hynix, as a major South Korean AI beneficiary, contributed to the 170% surge in Korean stocks, boosting its stock price.
005930.KO · Demand · Positive Samsung Electronics, a key AI beneficiary, accounted for nearly half the gains in the MSCI EM Index, driving its stock higher.
MSCI acquires First Street to expand physical climate risk modeling
MSCI announced it is acquiring physical climate risk modeling company First Street. The deal is expected to close in Q3 of this year with MSCI paying $120 million at closing, plus potential future payments if certain revenue thresholds are met in the first two years after closing. Following integration, MSCI will be able to run physical climate risk assessments for over 2 billion structures. First Street will sit within MSCI's sustainability and climate business.
MSCI to Report Q2 2026 Earnings Tuesday, Analysts Expect EPS of $4.82
MSCI is set to report its fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, July 21. Analysts expect the company to post a profit of $4.82 per share on a diluted basis, up 15.6% from $4.17 per share in the same quarter last year. For the full year, analysts forecast earnings per share of $19.62, a 13.5% increase from $17.28 in fiscal 2025, with further growth to $22.41 expected in fiscal 2027. MSCI has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in each of its last four quarterly reports, including its first quarter when adjusted earnings per share of $4.55 topped the $4.40 consensus. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating from analysts, with an average price target of $686.76, suggesting a potential upside of 23.8% from current levels.
StockStory flags IDEX, Flex, and MSCI as profitable but risky stocks
StockStory identifies IDEX, Flex, and MSCI as profitable companies that warrant caution due to weakening fundamentals. IDEX, with a 20.7% trailing operating margin, has seen no organic revenue growth over two years and earnings per share rising only 1.2% annually. Flex, at a 4.9% margin, posted just 2.8% annual revenue growth and a weak 2.8% free cash flow margin over five years. MSCI, despite a 55.4% margin, shows negative return on equity. The report suggests better opportunities exist elsewhere.
MSCI Fair Value Estimate Edges Up to $690.44 as Analysts Debate AI Impact
Simply Wall St has nudged its fair value estimate for MSCI to $690.44 per share, a modest increase from $688.56, reflecting updated modeling assumptions. The adjustment comes as analysts weigh how artificial intelligence could reshape the economics of data and analytics, with Rothschild & Co Redburn raising its price target to $690 and Wells Fargo lifting its target to $700, both citing the defensibility of MSCI's proprietary datasets. However, Rothschild & Co Redburn also cautioned that more commoditized revenue lines tied to workflow and aggregation could face erosion as AI tools advance. MSCI reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $850.8 million, up 14.1% year over year and slightly ahead of expectations, while completing a share repurchase tranche of 2,414,482 shares for $1,347.06 million. The company is also reviewing Indonesia's market status amid transparency concerns and plans to open a Silicon Valley office as an AI and technology hub.
SpaceX stock falls after MSCI gives lowest ESG rating
SpaceX stock fell as much as 5.73% in premarket trading Monday after MSCI assigned the company its lowest possible ESG rating, a CCC. The rating, issued on June 11, included a controversies score of 1 out of 10 and a governance score of 3.2 out of 10, placing SpaceX in the same ESG tier as Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. CEO Elon Musk responded on X with a one-line rebuttal, saying "Unfortunately, electric rockets are impossible," dismissing the rating's focus on emissions-heavy sectors. The decline extended a losing streak from last week, when shares dropped 5% on Wednesday and 3.6% on Thursday, though the stock remained about 37% above its $135 IPO price as of Thursday's close. The rating and stock move come as SpaceX is reportedly weighing a $20 billion bond sale to fund its AI and space operations.
Space Economy › Launch Services & Propulsion ▼Capital
SPCX · Capital · Negative SpaceX stock fell after MSCI gave it the lowest ESG rating, a financial/valuation event affecting investor sentiment.
SPCX · Regulation · Negative SpaceX received MSCI's lowest ESG rating (CCC), causing a premarket stock drop.
MSCI · Regulation · Negative MSCI assigned SpaceX its lowest ESG rating, which is a regulatory/ESG assessment that negatively impacts MSCI's reputation and perceived objectivity.
Indonesia awaits MSCI verdict that risks $13 billion in capital outflows
MSCI will decide on June 23 whether to downgrade Indonesia from emerging market to frontier market status, a move that Goldman Sachs estimates could trigger up to $13 billion in capital outflows. Foreign investors have already pulled $3.4 billion from the Jakarta stock exchange since the start of 2026, and the Jakarta Composite Index has fallen over 28% this year. The benchmark provider first flagged concerns in January over opaque ownership data and market activity, prompting an interim freeze on index adjustments. President Prabowo Subianto’s policies, including a multi-billion dollar free meals program and expanded role for sovereign wealth fund Danantara, have added to investor unease, while Moody’s and Fitch have both downgraded Indonesia’s sovereign rating outlook to negative. Even if a downgrade is avoided, analysts warn that the underlying issues of transparency and governance will persist, and the rupiah has already tumbled 7% in 2026 amid rising inflation and depleted foreign reserves.
MSCI · Regulation · Negative MSCI's potential downgrade of Indonesia from EM to frontier status is a regulatory/index decision that could reduce its index business revenue and reputation.
USDIDR.FOREX · Monetary · Positive The article highlights Indonesia's economic weakness, inflation, depleted reserves, and potential MSCI downgrade, all of which weaken the IDR relative to USD.
MSCI Releases 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review for 79 Markets
MSCI released the results of its 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review, covering assessments for 79 markets. The report evaluates each equity market on five criteria: openness to foreign ownership, ease of capital flows, operational efficiency, availability of investment instruments, and stability of the institutional framework. Bulgaria is not included in this release; its information will be available on June 23, 2026, alongside the MSCI 2026 Annual Market Classification Review, as it is under review for potential reclassification from Standalone to Frontier Market status. The accessibility review, along with economic development and size and liquidity, determines market classifications into Developed, Emerging, Frontier, and Standalone Markets, which are key inputs for index construction.
MSCI · Capital · Positive MSCI's own market accessibility review is a core product and service offering, reinforcing its role in index construction and potentially driving demand for its indices.
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