Climate Risk Analytics & Insurance

The Office of Insurance Commission, or OIC, has ordered insurance companies to assess their catastrophe reserves as close to reality as possible and to set aside full reserves, in order to prevent liquidity strain and to reflect the overall damage picture across the system. This follows the second joint meeting with the insurance sector, held on 2 October 2026, to prepare for the wave of claims expected to flood in simultaneously once the floods recede. At the first meeting on 28 December 2026, damage data was still scattered and incomplete. Under the data and liquidity response guidelines, insurance companies are required to clearly separate repair status into three stages: awaiting entry to repair, under repair, and repair completed, in order to prevent artificial status problems. On staffing and resource management, the OIC recommends allocating loss surveyors and damage assessors appropriately, and grouping damage levels for internal combustion engine vehicles into five levels, A through E, according to the level of water reaching the vehicle. At level A, water reaches the vehicle's floor carpet, with repair costs estimated at approximately 8,000 to 10,000 baht. At level B, water reaches the seats, with repair costs estimated at approximately 15,000 to 20,000 baht. At level C, water reaches the lower part of the console, with repair costs estimated at approximately 25,000 to 30,000 baht. At level D, water reaches the upper part of the console, with repair costs of 30,000 baht or more. At level E, the car is fully submerged and should be considered a total loss, with claims paid according to the sum insured. For electric vehicles, a combined assessment structure is set, requiring a joint assessment process covering damage to the vehicle structure and the battery pack, as well as reference to specific technical specifications from each manufacturer. A framework is also set for paying compensation within seven days in cases where damage is clearly proven, and the documentation process is unlocked for total loss cases still under installment obligations to financial institutions. On building strategic partnerships, the OIC will act as a central hub coordinating with banks and financial institutions in cases of total loss vehicles still under finance obligations, as well as providing networks of forklifts and tow trucks and opening access to cordoned-off areas. Chuchat Pramulphon, Secretary-General of the OIC, stressed key principles for policyholders: safety first, notify the company first, and collect as much evidence as possible. Absolutely do not start a flooded car. Photograph or video the water marks and the vehicle once it is safe, then notify the insurance company immediately. Meanwhile, the public can use the central claims channel for all insurance companies via the website www.oic.or.th and the LINE Official Account @OICCONNECT, as well as the OIC hotline 1186 around the clock until 5 October 2026.

The Thai General Insurance Association has disclosed the conditions of its catastrophe insurance program for residential homes: even if water does not enter the house itself, policyholders are entitled to claim compensation if flooding directly surrounds the structure to the point that normal daily life cannot be maintained for more than 7 consecutive days. Dr. Somporn Suebthawilkul, president of the Thai General Insurance Association, stated that in such cases an initial compensation of 10,000 baht per household will be paid. However, the home must be located in an area declared a disaster zone by a government agency, and the flood event must occur during the period in which the policy is in force, starting from October 1, 2026; events occurring before that date cannot be claimed retroactively. To file a claim, the public can notify through the website, the LINE Official Account, the call center, or claim notification points in their area, and must verify their identity through ThaiD, providing their identity, house number, details of the flood event, along with photographs or supporting evidence. Once the insurance company verifies that the conditions are met and the documents are complete, it will pay the initial compensation of 10,000 baht within 15 days, primarily to the property owner; if a tenant or occupant acts on their behalf, prior authorization must be obtained.

CNA Financial Corporation grew second-quarter 2026 P&C net written premiums 4% year over year even as renewal premium change slowed to 2% and renewal rate increases stayed flat, with new business climbing 11% to a record $718 million and retention holding at 83%. Specialty and Commercial net written premiums each rose 5% in the quarter, and management said it continues to write accounts at appropriate prices, terms and conditions while pulling back where risk-adjusted returns are less attractive. Profitability nonetheless came under pressure: the P&C underlying combined ratio deteriorated to 94.2% from 91.7%, the underlying loss ratio rose to 64.1%, and the Commercial underlying combined ratio increased to 92.8% from 90.6%. Net investment income rose to $701 million in the quarter. Among peers, Travelers Companies posted a 5% increase in second-quarter 2026 Business Insurance net written premiums excluding the Canadian divestiture, with renewal premium change of 4.8%, while Chubb said soft conditions persisted in large-account and E&S property and spread to certain casualty and financial lines, pushing North America Commercial P&C net written premiums down 2.3% even as net written premiums excluding large-account and E&S property rose 4.1%, Middle Market and Small Commercial grew 8.9%, and Overseas General net written premiums increased 10.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNA's third-quarter 2026 EPS moved down 1.6% over the past 60 days, while the full-year 2026 EPS estimate moved up 2.4%, and the stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Indara Insurance Public Company Limited has introduced relief measures for policyholders of all types of insurance affected by the flood situation, covering deferral of premium payments, moving vehicles to safe areas, providing replacement policy documents, and expediting claim consideration for damaged residences. The 60-day premium payment deferral applies to individual insurance policyholders in flood-affected areas whose premiums fall due between 24 September and 31 October 2026. If the insured notifies a request to renew or to restore the policy to its original status and pays the premium within 60 days from the due date, the policy will be considered to remain in effect as before. For vehicles, the company is arranging and coordinating tow trucks and recovery vehicles within its network to move cars to safe areas without waiting for a claims surveyor, while increasing the advance payment limit for towing and recovery costs and offering free flood-evacuation parking services at partner garages. Customers whose policy documents are lost or damaged can also request new copies free of charge. For residential insurance customers, the company will notify the result of its consideration within 3 business days after receiving photographs of the damage to the insured property together with the claim notification, and will pay an initial indemnity within 7 business days from the date the insured signs the agreement, up to a maximum of 20,000 baht for policies in force, paid according to actual damage but not exceeding the liability limit under the policy. Customers can report flood incidents or request towing and recovery services at the customer care centre by calling 02-636-5656 and pressing 1, 24 hours a day, and can file claims via www.indara.co.th/claim-inquiry

TTBWEALTH Public Company Limited, or TTBWEALTH, assesses that this round of flooding will have a limited impact on the economy, as it is short-term and severe only in certain areas, unlike the 2011 event that flooded many areas and lasted several weeks to several months. In the short term, some stocks have gained both positive and negative sentiment. The groups benefiting positively include consumer goods retail, led by CPALL, CPAXT and CRC, as well as the home improvement and construction materials group, which is expected to benefit from demand for home repairs after the water recedes, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA and TASCO. Meanwhile, the groups affected negatively include insurance, such as TIPH, and tourism, namely AOT, ERW and CENTEL. In addition, several listed companies have updated the situation. DELTA reported that some areas were flooded but machinery and factories were not damaged, and operations returned to normal today after production lines were halted last Sunday. CENTEL had only some hotels affected, such as the Lat Phrao area where water entered the lobby, and the Pattaya zone, with a small number of customer cancellations. Its food business saw some sales decline from temporary store closures, but overall the impact is considered limited. MINT stated that most of its hotels are not in flood zones, its properties were not damaged, and it continues to operate normally. CPN confirmed that no shopping centers were closed, though it may be affected by a decline in customer traffic during the floods, and it expects no rental discounts to be offered.

The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that economic damage from flooding between September 25 and 29, 2026, a total of five days, covering Bangkok and 26 provinces in the central, eastern, northern, and northeastern regions, will be approximately 12.283 billion baht, or about 0.066% of annual GDP. The forecast range is between 5.896 billion and 20.635 billion baht, or 0.03% to 0.11% of GDP, depending on the actual extent of the flooded areas. Thanavath Phonvichai, chairman of the advisory board of the forecasting center, said the figures do not yet include damage to property, housing, vehicles, inventory, and agricultural output, which will be assessed clearly after the water recedes. Bangkok is expected to suffer the most damage at about 7.014 billion baht, or roughly 57% of total damage, followed by the eastern region at about 2.976 billion baht, with Chonburi hit hardest at about 2.101 billion baht, and the greater Bangkok area at about 1.839 billion baht, where Samut Prakan is the most affected in that group. The forecasting center assesses that the impact is not severe enough to change the direction of the economy for the full year, but it adds downward pressure on growth in the second half of the year. It recommends that the government speed up relief for informal workers and small operators, manage water in the Chao Phraya basin, and monitor prices of essential goods through the vegetarian festival from October 10 to 18, 2026.

The government is accelerating financial measures to assist people and businesses affected by the flood situation. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas has instructed specialised financial institutions to provide immediate assistance, covering essential expenses during the disaster, reduction of existing debt burdens, liquidity injection, as well as funds for home repairs and occupational rehabilitation after the waters recede. Deputy Government Spokesperson Lalida Periswiwatana revealed that the prepared measures cover emergency loans and rehabilitation loans from the Government Savings Bank, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Bank of Thailand, as well as housing assistance from the Government Housing Bank. There are also measures to adjust debt repayment conditions from the Government Savings Bank, the Government Housing Bank, the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Bank of Thailand, the Islamic Bank of Thailand, and the Export-Import Bank of Thailand, along with measures from the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation to ease borrowers' burdens. On the insurance side, the Office of the Insurance Commission and the insurance industry have accelerated assistance to people whose homes and cars were damaged by the floods, advising victims to check their policy coverage via LINE @OICCONNECT, gather complete evidence of damage, and report incidents as soon as possible. The Office of the Insurance Commission will also discuss with non-life insurance companies to set additional assistance guidelines, including surveying data through the central insurance database system, preparing tow trucks and recovery vehicles together with Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, setting a timeframe for compensation payments to be fast and fair, and considering leniency on insurance premium payments and the renewal of agent or broker licences. The public can inquire for more information at the OIC hotline 1186. Ekniti said that at present the most important thing is public safety, while the Ministry of Finance is tasked with reducing concerns over debt burdens and ensuring those affected gain access to protection quickly and fairly, including preparing funding for post-flood rehabilitation so that people can repair their homes, fix their cars, reopen their shops, and return to work quickly.

Insurance stocks declined after analysts warned that flood conditions will increase the burden of claims payouts. Shares of Dhipaya Group Holdings, or TIPH, stood at 23.80 baht, down 1.20 baht, or 4.80%, while Thai Reinsurance, or THRE, stood at 0.58 baht, down 0.03 baht, or 4.92%. Thai Wiwat Holdings, or TVH, stood at 10.80 baht, down 0.60 baht, or 5.26%, and BKI Holdings, or BKIH, stood at 386 baht, down 1 baht, or 0.26%. DAOL Securities (Thailand), or DAOL, said the flood situation will pressure the SET Index in the short term due to negative sentiment that weighs on economic activity, but it expects the actual impact on the operating results of most listed companies to remain limited. The group requiring particularly close monitoring is insurance, namely TIPH, TVH, Muang Thai Insurance, or MTI, Bangkok Insurance, or BKI, and Allianz Ayudhya Capital, or AYUD. Flooding has now occurred in 25 provinces covering 128 districts, driven by heavy rain and a mass of water from the North flowing into the Central region. Bangkok and its vicinity faced continuous heavy rain from September 25 to 27, 2569, causing flooding in many areas. Although rainfall has begun to ease, repeated rain still needs to be monitored and drainage will take about one to two days. The government has therefore declared Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Prakan special public holidays on September 28 and 29, 2569.

Yuanta Securities said a depression caused rainfall to accelerate, triggering flooding in Bangkok and surrounding areas over the past weekend, sparking panic and demand to stockpile essential goods. However, because this round lacked the additional pressure of northern runoff and high sea tides seen in 2011, conditions in many areas eased quickly, especially in inner Bangkok. The research team assesses the impact on investment sentiment as relatively limited, similar to the cases of Japan or South Korea, where situations eased quickly and barely affected investment sentiment. Meanwhile, the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates the economic impact at a maximum of about 10 billion baht, or 0.05% of GDP, which is considered not large. The research team therefore maintains its EPS forecast for this year at 103 baht per share. The sector directly affected is insurance, from claims during the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, while sectors expected to be slightly affected are finance and commercial banks, from measures to help debtors. Sectors that may gain positive sentiment from stockpiling goods and home repairs are home improvement, construction materials, and retail and wholesale of essential goods, such as GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, CPALL, BJC, and CPAXT, as well as telecom operators ADVANC and TRUE, from data usage and work-from-home measures.

Nakorn Hataisattha, Head of Retail Investment Strategy Research and Economist at CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, said on the Stock News Market Focus programme on 28 September 2026 that the flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces this time differs from the great flood of 2011, because Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the Thai economy, making it a hugely important area for the country's economic activity. However, water levels in northern dams in 2026 stand at around 70%, compared with about 94% during the 2011 crisis, so the overall national risk still differs from that past event. Nakorn estimates the SET index could weaken below 1,600 points on selling driven by flood worries, but if the flooding eases within about four to five days, the market's correction could be a chance to buy certain stock groups. If the situation drags on beyond four to five days, the downside risk for the stock market will increase. Groups likely to come under pressure include property, stocks with factories in at-risk areas including electronic components such as KCE, insurers burdened by claims, and commercial banks on concerns about ECL provisioning. Retail stocks, meanwhile, may get a short-term positive sentiment boost from demand for consumer goods and home repair products. For high-dividend bank stocks such as TISCO and KKP, they could be an option if the situation eases quickly, with KKP also supported by the expansion of its investment platform business. CGSI believes that if the index falls below 1,600 points, the electronic components group is attractive to buy, especially DELTA, which still has a positive outlook from growing Thai exports of electronics and electrical appliances, and from the global investment cycle in AI, digital infrastructure, chips and memory, which continues to expand. If DELTA's share price falls sharply because of the floods, which are a one-off event, CGSI sees it as a chance to accumulate. Investors who do not want much volatility can consider HANA and KCE, and Nakorn said he likes HANA if the price falls to an attractive level.

The SET opened at 1,604.17 points, down 3.47 points or 0.22%, amid flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces. InnovestX assesses this flood as a short-term event and less severe than 2011, and since no significant damage has been found among the listed companies under its coverage, it expects the impact on the economy and the SET to be limited. Although the SET may dip on the first day by around 0.6%, or roughly 10 points, based on historical statistics, it should gradually recover as the situation eases. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate domestic play stocks in three main themes. The first is Recovery and Repair Plays, which benefit from home repair and restoration after the water recedes, comprising retail names HMPRO and GLOBAL and building materials name DCC. The second is Consumer Staples and Stockpiling Plays, supported by accelerated spending on essential goods for emergency stockpiling, comprising retail names CPALL, BJC and CRC. The third is Fast Recovery Plays, where historical statistics indicate a quick recovery after the situation eases, comprising tourism names CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names BDMS and BCH. It advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio. Continuous heavy rain throughout September has left 21 provinces and Bangkok facing flooding, with eastern Bangkok temporarily exceeding its drainage capacity, prompting a disaster area declaration across all 50 districts and a recommendation to work from home. However, the Bangkok governor and the Meteorological Department expect in line with each other that rainfall will drop to only 30-40% of the area from September 29 onward, which should allow residual water to drain and the area to return to normal within two to three days if no further rain falls. InnovestX states that if the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, while it still expects Thai GDP in 2026-2027 to grow in line with the 2.0% target. Factors to monitor include rainfall and new storms, water levels and drainage from major dams, and government relief measures and recovery budgets.

Analysts at Trinity Securities assess that the flash flooding in Bangkok over the past weekend could create sentiment pressure on insurance stocks, especially companies with auto and property insurance portfolios that may face rising claim costs and loss reserves, such as TIPH and THRE. In addition, groups tied to people's mobility, including shopping malls and restaurants such as CRC and CPN, as well as mass transit operators like BEM and BTS, may be affected by a short-term drop in traffic. Conversely, Trinity sees a chance of positive sentiment for consumer staples retail stocks, such as convenience store operator CPALL and hypermarkets BJC and CPAXT, which may see short-term demand for stockpiling goods, as well as the home improvement and construction materials sector, which may benefit from post-flood purchasing demand, such as HMPRO and TOA.