Airports Of Thailand PCL

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul chaired a meeting of the National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command to monitor the flood situation and relief efforts for the public. He instructed all agencies to prepare for the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, or IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings 2026, to be held from October 12 to 18, 2026, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok. Delegates from 191 countries and about 15,000 accompanying persons are expected to travel to Thailand. He also ordered that water management and the transport system be handled so as not to affect the meetings, and that confidence be built in Thailand's readiness to host participants and foreign investment. The Prime Minister issued eight directives covering the release of water from reservoirs and rivers that are full or nearly full; the removal of waterway obstructions at bottlenecks, bridges, drainage pipes and underpasses; precise targeting of high-risk areas; the mobilization of machinery from the private sector when government resources are insufficient; the immediate start of recovery in zones where water has receded; preparation of recovery and assistance plans for the public, including discussions with the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives on assistance for farmers; consideration of reducing water and electricity charges through the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority, the Provincial Waterworks Authority, the Metropolitan Electricity Authority and the Provincial Electricity Authority; and management of inbound and outbound passenger travel during the meetings by Airports of Thailand and the Ministry of Transport. Overall, some areas have begun to recover, but flood-hit areas remain, such as Prachin Buri, Pathum Thani and Chachoengsao provinces, where people and patients have been evacuated, especially from Chao Phraya Abhaibhubejhr Hospital in Prachin Buri province, with the Royal Thai Army supporting Chakraphong Camp Hospital to accommodate the transfer of patients. The Prime Minister also instructed all affected provinces to speed up household-level damage surveys and compile registries to submit to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation so that relief payments can be transferred quickly without waiting for verification in every area. He said progress in transferring relief money to the public must be seen within this week. For disasters occurring before October 1, 2026, the central budget will be used, while incidents from October 1 onward will fall under the national catastrophe insurance policy. He also assigned Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas to discuss with the Office of the Insurance Commission and relevant agencies to establish clear insurance claim systems and procedures so that the public receives relief payments as quickly as possible.

Natwarin Triphopsakul, Senior Director of the Equity Strategy Team at InnovestX Securities, or InnovestX, assesses that the Thai stock market will remain volatile in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, amid an investment climate pressured by factors on all sides. These include the Fed's hawkish stance, which is keeping bond yields elevated at multi-year highs, causing fund flows to continue flowing out. This is compounded by energy prices that remain high due to prolonged geopolitical problems, and concerns over domestic flooding, which, although the impact on the economy is expected to be limited, remains an overhang factor creating negative sentiment toward the market. InnovestX therefore recommends a Selective Buy strategy, focusing on Buy on Dip through 3 trading themes with their own specific positive factors. These are: the Domestic Play theme, based on domestic consumption, comprising the commerce group CPALL, CPN, and CRC, the medical group BCH and PR9, and the communications group TRUE; the Flood Defensive & Recovery Plays theme, which benefits from stockpiling of essential goods during emergencies, comprising the commerce group CPALL, BJC, and CRC, extending to demand for home repairs after the waters recede, namely HMPRO and GLOBAL, and the construction materials group DCC; and the Tourism & Mega-Event Play theme, which is expected to benefit from the high season for tourism in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by factors ranging from China's Golden Week from October 1 to 7 and world-class events such as the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12 to 18, comprising the tourism group ERW, CENTEL, and AOT, and the retail group CPALL, CPN, and CRC. On external factors, the United States reported August PCE and Core PCE at 3.4% and 3.0% year on year, respectively, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations, while real consumption expanded 0.6% from the previous month and ADP employment for September rose by 90,000 positions from 36,000 positions, reflecting that the economy remains strong but price pressures have not yet broadened, opening the door for the Fed to wait and assess more data. The market has reduced the odds of an October rate hike to about 35% from 70% last Monday. InnovestX still expects the Fed to raise rates in December and once more in early next year, but September NFP, CPI, and PPI must be monitored to assess the risk that the Fed may accelerate the pace of rate hikes. In China, the PBOC cut the PSL rate used to lend to state policy banks by 25 basis points to 1.50%, while increasing funding support for targeted economic sectors, and the government is subsidizing interest on first-home loans by 1% per year for no more than 5 years. However, the measures still focus on supporting the economy, while falling home prices continue to pressure purchasing power. InnovestX therefore maintains its forecast for China's 2026 GDP at 4.6% and views that the property sector may take at least another year to reach its bottom. Next week, attention will be on Thailand's September inflation, which InnovestX expects to accelerate from 2.53% year on year in the previous month, tracking higher oil and fresh food prices, as well as the final September services PMI for the United States, the eurozone, and Japan. Preliminary PMI readings reflect that the United States and the eurozone are accelerating, while Japan is slowing but still expanding. Also awaited is the report of the September FOMC meeting after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, with a focus on details of discussions about inflation risks, the strength of the economy, and the conditions that would lead to the next rate hike.

Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited, or AOT, reported total passenger traffic across its six airports in fiscal year 2025/2026 reached approximately 126.2 million, slightly above the earlier estimate of around 125.9 million recorded in fiscal year 2024/2025. The growth was driven by Chinese tourists who began arriving gradually starting two weeks before the long Golden Week holiday. Ms. Paweena Jariyathitipong, Chief Executive Officer of AOT, stated that the baggage handling problems and flight cancellations were limited to the services of certain ground handlers, while flights of other airlines continued to operate normally. AOT is therefore developing software and an application to track baggage, which can locate and progressively return more than 50% of bags to passengers within a short period, and will extend this to cargo tracking software. At the same time, AOT is preparing to sign a contract with its third ground handler, AOTGA, within October 2026, before starting services in late 2026 or early 2027 to handle the high season. Meanwhile, Thanachart Securities recommends buying AOT shares with a fundamental target price of 75 baht, viewing it as a standout stock in the tourism sector, and expects profit in fiscal year 2027 to reach a record high, growing 61%.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) said in an analysis dated September 30, 2026, that the earnings outlook for Airports of Thailand, or AOT, is continuing to recover and could enter a new growth cycle, driven by a full quarter of recognition of new Passenger Service Charge, or PSC, revenue, along with a recovery in passenger numbers and the tourism sector. The research team expects AOT to post normal profit of about 4.7 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, up 25% from the previous quarter and 17% from the same period a year earlier. Total revenue is expected at about 18 billion baht, up 17% from the previous quarter and 12% from a year earlier, marking the first year-on-year growth in seven quarters. The gross margin is expected at about 41%, improving both from the previous quarter and from the same period a year earlier. The research team also raised its 2027 profit forecast by 7% to about 28 billion baht, or an increase of 45% from a year earlier, lifting its assumptions for passenger and flight growth in 2027 to 6% from 4%. It upgraded its recommendation on AOT to Buy and set a fair value of 73 baht at the end of 2027, up from 67 baht.

Kasikorn Securities revealed that Trip.com Group indicated Chinese tourists during Golden Week 2026 are tending to travel earlier and stay longer, with flight bookings to Phuket rising 78% year on year, while Chiang Mai is gaining popularity among Gen Z, in line with the recovery of travel in Asia. In addition, bookings for accommodation of seven nights or more rose 123% year on year, reflecting both an increase in the number of trips and in their duration. The research team views this as positive momentum for the tourism sector, namely AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL and ERW, given the recovery opportunity for Chinese tourists and tourism activity during Golden Week. However, the flood situation still needs to be monitored closely.

Airports of Thailand, or AOT, has unveiled an investment plan worth 152 billion baht to elevate Suvarnabhumi Airport into an aviation hub and support long-term growth. The plan is part of efforts to expand capacity to handle passengers and flights, which are expected to keep rising. Meanwhile, an analysis from IAA Consensus estimates AOT's target share price at 71.50 to 85.00 baht, based on data as of September 30, 2026.

Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited has raised its 2026 SET Index target to 1,590 points from 1,550 points, but maintained a Neutral view because the overall market upside is not particularly high. Speaking at an online seminar titled "Decoding Thai Stocks, Fourth Quarter: Finding the Next Winners," the firm said earnings support from listed companies is not yet broad-based, with upward earnings revisions concentrated mainly in the electronics and energy sectors, while bond yields in several countries remain elevated, pressuring valuations of risk assets. On the Thai economy, Maybank expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, supported by exports, private investment, and a recovery in tourism, though the government's fiscal capacity has diminished amid a higher public debt level. For its fourth-quarter strategy, Maybank recommends focusing on adjusting weights between industry groups and selecting individual stocks rather than investing based on index direction. It highlights three standout groups: consumer finance, where valuations are starting to look attractive again, with TIDLOR, KTC, and MTC as top picks; tourism and transport, where earnings momentum continues, with AWC, AOT, BA, and MINT; and hospital businesses, which have stable revenue and specific supporting factors, with BH and CHG. At the same time, it advises increased caution in three groups: utilities and energy, which has been downgraded from Positive to Neutral; petrochemicals; and retail.

CGSI, or CGS International (Thailand), estimates that the net profits of Airports of Thailand, or AOT, and Thai Airways International, or THAI, will grow 60% and 24% respectively in 2027 from the same period a year earlier. In the third quarter of 2026, AOT is expected to post a normal profit of 4.4 billion baht, up 9% from the same period a year earlier and up 16% from the previous quarter. THAI is expected to post a normal profit of 2.8 billion baht, down 48% from the same period a year earlier but up 138% from the previous quarter. For THAI, the passenger load factor is expected to recover to 76% in the third quarter of 2026 from 71.5% in the second quarter of 2026, but passenger yield is expected to fall 10% from the previous quarter to 2.87 baht per RPK after it passed on some of the lower fuel costs through fare cuts and fuel surcharges. THAI also plans to take delivery of 14 Airbus A321neo aircraft and 12 Boeing 787 aircraft, lifting its fleet from 84 aircraft at the end of the second quarter of 2026 to 102 aircraft by the end of December 2026. AOT expects foreign tourist arrivals in July to September 2026 to total 7.03 million, down 5% from 7.43 million in the same period a year earlier. Although passenger numbers will fall 2% from the same period a year earlier, an increase in the departure passenger service charge will help offset this and support profit. CGSI recommends overweighting the tourism sector and prefers THAI over AOT given its attractive valuation. THAI trades at a 2027 P/E of 6.9 times, 27% below the sector average, while AOT trades at 27.6 times, 48% above the sector average.

Today's top picks are led by GULF, which newspapers report is making an aggressive move by joining forces with GUNKUL to invest 466.5 million baht for 50% stakes in 12 solar and wind farm projects with a combined generating capacity of 673.4 megawatts, with power supply set to begin in 2570, securing long-term revenue from fixed power purchase agreements. Solar Farm rates range from 2.1579 to 2.1679 baht per kilowatt-hour, Solar BESS at 2.8331 baht, and wind power at 3.1014 baht. Meanwhile, GUNKUL is bringing GULF in as a joint venture partner to strengthen liquidity and expand financial headroom, supporting investment opportunities under the PDP 2026 plan, while accelerating the expansion of its clean energy portfolio to 3,000 megawatts by 2573. On another front, EGCO has closed a deal to advance its clean energy game in the United States, acquiring 49% of Pinnacle IV, with a generating capacity of 339 megawatts from two operational wind and solar power plants, pushing its renewable energy portfolio up to 1,785 megawatts, or 26% of total generating capacity. Brokerages estimate the new projects will boost profits by 6 to 8% and give an average target price of 145.67 baht. As for AOT, it reports that Suvarnabhumi saw flights surge to 347,000 in 11 months, with passengers reaching 59.6 million, and is accelerating a 152 billion baht investment plan for a major upgrade of Suvarnabhumi, with 12 billion baht to drive the East Expansion to raise passenger capacity to 70 million per year, along with a 120 billion baht South Terminal plan and infrastructure including a fourth runway at another 20 billion baht. The average target price is 71.50 baht, with a high of 85.00 baht.

Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA, may see its weighting increased in the end-of-quarter rebalancing of the SET50 and SET100 indices on 30 September 2026, which would force passive funds to buy additional shares worth an estimated 2 billion baht. Meanwhile, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission selection committee resolved to impose administrative enforcement measures against Dr. Soran Boonbaichaiyapruck, known as Dr. Hai, and filed a petition with the Administrative Court seeking a temporary protection order for him to cease performing his duties as NBTC chairman after he was stripped of the post for lacking qualifications and for obstructing other NBTC commissioners from carrying out their duties. On another front, Airports of Thailand, or AOT, is pressing ahead with accelerating Suvarnabhumi Airport, with Kittipong Kittikhachon, director of Suvarnabhumi Airport, disclosing that over 20 years Suvarnabhumi has handled more than 899.9 million passengers, over 5.57 million flights and more than 24.9 million tonnes of air cargo. For the 11 months of fiscal year 2026, there were 118 scheduled airlines and 346,905 flights, up 1.83%, 59.63 million passengers, up 2.43%, and cargo volume of more than 1.4 million tonnes, up 4.63%. There is also a major investment plan, the East Expansion, worth 12 billion baht over an area of 81,000 square metres, which will raise passenger capacity from 60 million per year to 70 million per year, with construction during 2027-2031. It is currently awaiting placement on the Cabinet agenda. Meanwhile, PTG Energy, or PTG, is investing jointly with Paisal Capital Co., Ltd., extending from the energy business into the financial business. Rangsan Puangprang, chief executive of finance and sustainability at PTG, said the cooperation stems from the funding needs of customers in the commercial vehicle and truck operator group. Sukrit Rianpinyawat, chief executive of Paisal Capital Co., Ltd., said the two sides began cooperating early last year and plan to expand the business nationwide, focusing on the truck group, and are preparing to file for an IPO early in 2027, expecting to begin trading on the stock exchange in the third quarter of 2027, with a five-year goal of driving loan volume from about 3 billion baht at present to 10 billion baht.

Suvarnabhumi Airport, operated by Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited, or AOT, reported operating results for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2026, from October 2025 to August 2026, with a total of 59.63 million passengers served, an increase of 2.43% from the same period last year. A total of 118 scheduled airlines provided service, with combined takeoffs and landings of 346,905 flights, up 1.83%. Air cargo flights totaled 15,855, up 6.34%, handling more than 1.4 million tonnes of cargo, up 4.63%. Kittipong Kittikachorn, Director of Suvarnabhumi Airport, said the airport is pressing ahead with upgrading service quality and applying technology to improve management efficiency in order to drive its goal of becoming a Global Aviation Hub under the concept "20 Years of Suvarnabhumi: Connecting Thailand to the World, Advancing Toward the Future." Since opening on September 28, 2006, Suvarnabhumi Airport has served more than 899.9 million passengers, handled more than 5.57 million flights, and processed more than 24.9 million tonnes of air cargo. On service efficiency, the airport plans to install a total of 122 automated passport control machines for international passengers on both arrival and departure, with 106 already installed. It is also renovating 124 restroom locations, with 69 completed, and all work is expected to finish within 2028. Meanwhile, the development results have placed Suvarnabhumi Airport eighth among the top 10 airports for air connectivity in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East region for 2025, according to the ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East Air Connectivity Index.

Bualuang Securities, or BLS, remains positive on the Thai stock market, assessing that the index is likely to trend upward from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027 and could reach a best-case target of 1,780 points before shifting into sector rotation. Its base case puts the end-2027 target at 1,710 points, based on earnings per share of 106 baht, down 4% from the same period a year earlier, with the overall profit decline driven mainly by an earnings correction in upstream energy, refining and petrochemicals. The main supporting factors come from three drivers: the global technology wave, an upcycle in global industry, and foreign capital. It estimates that every 10 billion baht in net foreign buying would lift the index by about 15 to 20 points. For its fourth-quarter 2026 strategy, it recommends a barbell approach. The first core focuses on energy and petrochemicals, namely PTT and PTTGC. The other core focuses on power producers with structural growth, namely GULF, GPSC and GUNKUL. It also recommends retailers such as CRC and COM7, tourism names such as AOT, AWC and CENTEL, hospitals such as BH and BDMS, as well as 2027 growth leaders such as CBG, ICHI and BGRIM. In the first half of 2027, it advises rotating into groups that benefit from lower costs, such as CENTEL, before shifting to high-dividend stocks and companies with strong cash flows as the portfolio's core in the second half of 2027.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that although flooding in Bangkok has caused flight delays, major airports Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang remain open and operating normally, while inner Bangkok and key destinations such as Chiang Mai, Phuket, and Samui remain safe. If the situation eases quickly, the impact on travel during the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027, which is the tourism high season, will be limited. The Middle East situation remains the main factor shaping the direction of the tourism sector. For CENTEL, Thailand accounts for about 60% of hotel revenue, split between Bangkok at 22% and the provinces at 38%, which helps cushion the impact of the floods. Its restaurant business has about 34% of restaurant revenue in Bangkok, with average restaurant sales in Bangkok at roughly 12 million baht per day, and every single day that sales are hit by 30% to 50% would affect quarterly sales by only 0.1% to 0.2%. ERW says its Lux to Eco hotels, which account for 74% of revenue, remain open as normal, with about 54% of revenue in Bangkok, while Hop Inn, which accounts for 26% of revenue, has some branches affected but mostly in the provinces. MINT derives about 50% of revenue from hotels in the EU, so it faces a more limited fundamental impact. The research team maintains its view that normal profits for AOT and Thai hotel operators for the October to December period will expand both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing through the January to March 2027 period in line with the tourism season. Although the market may open risk-off in the short term, the effect on earnings forecasts remains limited. It still favours CENTEL, followed by AOT, while ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy after its share price fell 12% year to date versus the SET's gain of 28%. If jet fuel rises above its previous peak in April at 209 US dollars per barrel and affects flight capacity, that would be a tactical trigger to consider reducing weightings in the tourism sector.

Airports of Thailand, or AOT, disclosed that Ms. Paweena Jariyathitipong, Chief Executive Officer, together with Air Vice Marshal Somchanok Tiamtiabrat, Advisor 10 and Acting Senior Executive Vice President for Airport and Aviation Standards, held discussions with Mr. Erik Langhofer, Director of Regulatory Affairs, Global Safety & Regulatory Affairs, Asia-Pacific, and Ms. Tammie Kuo, Airport Engineering Technology, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, from The Boeing Company, regarding the introduction of the Boeing 777X aircraft into operations at AOT's airports. The purpose of this discussion was to prepare the airports for aircraft parking stand management and to fully ready other facilities for this aircraft model, in order to create opportunities for airlines to consider bringing the Boeing 777X into service. This will benefit passenger volumes and enhance the potential of AOT's airports under safety standards. It also supports AOT's goal of becoming a World-Class Aviation Hub and will further stimulate Thailand's tourism and economic sectors.

Analysts at InnovestX Securities have released a list of 9 standout stocks set to benefit from the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector, along with a strategy of timing purchases for trading gains. They see Thailand entering the full swing of the tourism high season in the fourth quarter of 2026, starting with China's Golden Week from October 1-7, 2026, followed by European travellers escaping the cold and the Christmas-New Year festival. Meanwhile, 2026 also has upside from hosting world-class events, namely the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12-18 in Bangkok, which are expected to draw 15,000-18,000 participants, and the Tomorrowland Thailand 2026 music festival from December 11-13 in Chonburi province, which is estimated to attract more than 15,000 attendees, over 85% of them foreign tourists. Based on historical statistics, the number of foreign tourists in the fourth quarter typically recovers significantly from the third quarter, with overall growth of 10% and 17% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to grow close to or better than the previous year, driven by a tourist mix of mass tourism and high-spending MICE groups, which will significantly boost per-capita spending. The positive momentum is expected to extend into the first half of 2027, thanks to the Chinese New Year festival in the first quarter of 2027 and the Songkran festival coupled with the Thai Tiew Thai Plus measure expected to begin in April 2027 in the second quarter of 2027. The investment strategy therefore recommends timing purchases for trading gains in two main groups: stocks that benefit directly from foreign tourists' travel and stays in Thailand, namely the tourism group AOT, ERW, CENTEL and MINT, and stocks that benefit indirectly through increased consumer goods spending, namely the commerce group CPALL, CRC and CPN, and the beverage group HTC and ICHI.

Dao Securities holds a positive view on shares of Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited, or AOT, on the expected recovery in Chinese flights, particularly during the long Golden Week holiday, and on the possible increase in airport service fees. Data from the Tourism Authority of Thailand projects that during the long holiday from September 25 to October 7, 2026, which covers the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday for a total of 13 days, about 250,000 Chinese tourists will visit Thailand, up 24% year on year, helping to support the number of flights and passengers from China. Meanwhile, AOT is considering raising its parking charge, which has not been adjusted since 2008 and is currently about 30-50% lower than that of regional competitors, and is also reviewing its landing charge and aircraft service charge to improve the efficiency of airport resource use. Ms. Paweena Jariyathitipong, Chief Executive Officer of AOT, said the trend in flight volume for October 2026 is expected to rise gradually, especially flights from China during Golden Week between October 1 and 7 and during the winter flight schedule from October 25 to March 27. The research team maintains its net profit forecast of 19.4 billion baht for FY2026E, up 7% year on year, and 26.2 billion baht for FY2027E, up 35% year on year, which would be a new record high from recognizing the full-year benefit of the new passenger service charge rate after raising the international departure PSC to 1,120 baht from 730 baht effective June 20, 2026. It also maintains a Buy recommendation with a target price of 73.00 baht, based on DCF at a WACC of 7.0% and terminal growth of 3.0%.

Three brokerages issued their daily investment strategy views. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to slow within a range of 1,595 to 1,610 points, pressured by a sharp rise in US bond yields, with 5-year and 10-year yields breaking above 5%, while crude oil prices turned back up above US$100 per barrel once again. CGS International (Thailand) sees the SET Index in a range of 1,600 to 1,630 points, supported by the positive factor of the US and China agreeing to extend their trade truce by another two months until January 10, 2570. DAOL expects the SET Index to move sideways after the investment mood came back under pressure from bond yields and rising oil prices. For today's top picks, PTTEP is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 180.00 baht, and AOT is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 72.00 baht. Finansia Syrus's top picks for September are BTG, HANA, ITC, PR9 and STA, with STA rated 'Trading Buy' with a target price of 23 baht. MOSHI expects same-store sales growth of 4.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, and PR9 expects net profit for the hospital group in the third quarter of 2026 to rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, the ADB raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.0% from 1.8%, but cut its 2027 forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%.

Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET Index to trade sideways today after the investment mood came under pressure once again from bond yields, along with rising oil prices. It estimates support at 1,600-1,605 points and resistance at 1,614-1,618 points, and sees energy stocks potentially attracting buying back. Meanwhile, US stocks closed lower after bond yields surged again, while oil prices rebounded strongly after Trump's speech at the UN, in which he gave Iran a choice between negotiating or letting the US wipe it out completely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded without backing down, but stressed that Iran is always ready for diplomatic talks if they are equal and do not use threatening language or force. As for the main strategy, Dao sees the market possibly pulling back but views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate Mega Play Theme stocks such as Data Center and power plants, and still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks also remain attractive, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium-to-long-term tourism recovery theme, it still likes AOT, CENTEL and ERW. The top pick today is PTTEP, supported by the short-term crude oil price outlook after Iran's president said at the UN that Iran will not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions remain in effect. Brent crude closed up 3.9% yesterday at 103.1 US dollars per barrel. Buy, target price 180.00 baht. Also AOT, which will benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects that during China's long holiday from 25 September to 7 October 2026, which covers both the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday, 250,000 Chinese tourists will come to Thailand, up 24% YoY. It also estimates normal profit in 4QFY26E will grow well both YoY and QoQ from the gradual recovery in international passengers and the first full quarter of recognition of the new PSC rate. Buy, target price 72.00 baht. The top picks on technical signals are PTTEP and CCET.

Krungsri Securities said tourist arrivals in the third week of September 2026 came to 0.46 million, down 7% year-on-year but recovering 5% from the previous week. The year-on-year contraction was driven by a 32% drop in Malaysian tourists, 35% from South Korea and 23% from India, while Chinese tourists numbered 0.07 million, down 6% year-on-year for a second consecutive week. Cumulative arrivals from January 1 to September 19 stood at 22.2 million, down 4% year-on-year. Total passenger volume nationwide in the third week of September 2026 fell 9% year-on-year, a deeper contraction than the previous week's 7% decline, though passenger volume at Samui airport still grew a strong 14% year-on-year. The research team maintained a Neutral view on the aviation sector, assessing that the US-Iran war remains a key risk given elevated oil prices, with the average jet fuel price from January 1 to September 21 at 144 US dollars per barrel, up 66% year-on-year and above the research team's full-year 2026 average jet fuel assumption of 130 US dollars per barrel, leaving airline stocks' 2026 earnings exposed to downside. The research team also picked AOT as its Top Pick in the sector with a Buy rating and a target price of 70 baht, citing less direct exposure to oil price risk and a positive catalyst from an increase of more than 50% in the international route passenger service charge. In the near term, BA stands out on continued strong passenger growth at Samui airport, with a Buy rating and a target price of 25 baht.

The research team at Asia Plus Securities said that in the fourth quarter of 2026, the Thai capital market has an interesting issue arising from CAPPED WEIGHT index rebalancing. The SET50 index has a rule capping any single stock's weight at no more than 10%, creating a MEAN REVERSION phenomenon: when large-cap stocks decline in price, their FLOATING WEIGHT falls, for example DELTA dropping from 10% to 7.28%. When the end-of-quarter REBALANCE arrives, PASSIVE FUNDs must buy the stocks that fell heavily to top their weights back up to 10%, and sell stocks that have risen or whose weight exceeds 10%. The research team calculated the 10 stocks that will be added to in the fourth-quarter 2026 round, with DELTA benefiting the most from the top-up back to 10% from 7.28%, followed by MRDIYT, MINT, THAI, TFG, BANPU, ADVANC, CPN, CPALL and AOT. This group is expected to see price support from PASSIVE FUND money flows before October.

Foreign tourists arriving in Thailand during 13–19 September 2026 totalled 464,200, beginning a seasonal recovery of 5.7% from the previous week ahead of the high season. Short-haul arrivals came to 324,816, up 8.6% week on week, while long-haul arrivals were 139,384, down 0.4% week on week. The recovery was led by Malaysian tourists at 69,255, up 29.1% on Malaysia Day, and Japanese tourists at 30,494, up 55.4% ahead of Silver Week, while Chinese tourists numbered 66,151, up 1.2%, and Russian tourists 19,531, up 7.6%. On forward bookings for Golden Week, Trip.com signalled positive momentum after Chinese tourists' flight bookings to Phuket rose 78% from a year earlier, supported by the long holiday combining the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week, which is likely to see Chinese tourists start travelling from 25 September. The research team at Asia Plus Securities views the Phuket flight bookings as a positive signal for AOT's international passenger numbers, particularly at Phuket airport, which accounts for about 12% of AOT's revenue. Among hotel groups with a high share of revenue from Phuket, CENTEL leads with about 15% of hotel revenue, followed by ERW at about 9% of hotel revenue, while MINT's main revenue share lies in the EU. The research team continues to emphasise investment in Thai tourism, favouring CENTEL followed by AOT, whose earnings momentum in 2027 looks stronger than the sector's. ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy tracking the direction of Brent crude, after the share price fell 14% this year against a 27% rise in the SET, which the team sees as having largely priced in the negatives. It estimates that AOT's normal profit, as well as that of Thai hotel groups, will expand in the October-to-December period both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing into the January-to-March 2027 period as the peak season arrives along with major events during Chinese New Year.

DBS Vickers Securities Thailand estimates that the SET index today has a chance to hold above the 1,600-point level, driven by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices may pressure energy stocks into selling. It sees support at 1,584-1,592 points and resistance at 1,604-1,610 points. It also noted that investors are still watching the Trump-Xi meeting. In the U.S. market, stocks rose sharply led by AI names such as Meta, and WTI crude fell below 100 U.S. dollars, pushing bond yields to close below 5%, which is expected to support buying in beneficiary groups such as data centers and power plants. It continues to favor GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banks remain resilient given lingering uncertainty, so it still favors KTB, KBANK and KKP. Over the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks such as AOT, CENTEL and ERW. For today's top pick, it recommends CPALL, estimating 2026E profit at 33 billion baht, up 18% year on year, supported by 700 new branch openings and product mix, with a target price of 63.00 baht. Its technical picks are BGRIM and STECON.

Dao Securities expects the Thai stock market on September 22, 2026, to see the SET Index attempt to hold above 1,600 points, helped by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices could pressure energy shares with selling. The investment mood has improved again, and investors are watching the meeting between Trump and Xi. In the US market, stocks rose sharply, especially AI-related names led by META, and with WTI oil falling below 100 dollars per barrel, the US bond yield closed below 5%, supporting the investment climate. Fitch Ratings announced on September 18 that it had revised Thailand's credit outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, a supportive factor for the market. The SET opened the morning up more than 9 to 13 points, testing 1,600 points, with buying concentrated mainly in banking and financial stocks. Dao Securities' main strategy states that a US bond yield closing below 5% will draw buying into stocks that benefit from lower bond yields under the Mega Play theme, such as data centers and power plants, and it still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks should be resilient amid lingering uncertainty, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks, namely AOT, CENTEL and ERW.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

Dao Securities said SAV retains a positive view on its operating performance in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, which should return to growth compared with both the prior year and the previous quarter, driven by a recovering trend in flight numbers. In July 2026, flights returned to 8% growth year on year, and in August 2026 growth is expected to accelerate to 20% year on year, while September 2026 should continue to grow. As a result, third-quarter 2026 flight numbers are estimated to grow more than 10% both year on year and quarter on quarter, an improvement from the second quarter of 2026, when flight numbers fell 2% year on year and 12% quarter on quarter. Supporting factors include a recovery in overflight traffic, with particularly notable increases in flights from Vietnam, China and Singapore, and fourth-quarter 2026 flight numbers are expected to rise further during the high season. The brokerage maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 547 million baht, flat year on year, with upside potential, as first-half profit accounted for 48% of the full year. For third-quarter 2026, preliminary estimates put profit improving to 130-140 million baht, better both year on year and quarter on quarter, compared with 128 million baht in the third quarter of 2025 and 122 million baht in the second quarter of 2026. Fourth-quarter 2026 profit is expected to improve further and mark the year's high. Dao maintained its Buy recommendation with a target price of 14.50 baht, based on a DCF with a WACC of 9.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. It assesses that second-quarter 2026 profit marked the bottom and that growth will accelerate in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and in 2027. Catalysts remain from project tenders by AOT and Aerothai, with a combined project value of no less than 2.45 billion baht, which should add upside to 2027 profit, while dividend yield remains high at around 8.5% per year.

Pi Securities estimates the SET index today will move in a range of 1570 to 1595, viewing Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation again on expectations of lower yields ahead. It names stocks in this group including MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR. Meanwhile, US stock markets closed higher, with the DJIA up 0.61% and the S&P 500 up 1.14%, after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled it may hike once more this year. Brent crude fell to around 104 to 105 dollars per barrel after Middle East concerns eased somewhat and Saudi Arabia said it would resume oil exports, helping push the US 10-year yield and 30-year yield lower. On US economic data released overnight, initial jobless claims came in at about 196,000, below market expectations. For short-term strategy, it recommends TECH names including DELTA and KCE after the Kospi rose about 2.5% this morning, as well as the tourism group including AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN and HMPRO, and the hospital group including BDMS, BCH and PR9.

Tisco Securities has upgraded its recommendation on Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited, or AOT, from "hold" to "buy" and raised its fair value from 64 baht to 75 baht per share, after lifting its earnings forecasts for 2026-2028 by 5-6% and expecting profit in 2027 to grow 58%, driven by an increase in the international passenger departure service fee, growth in both international and domestic passenger traffic, and higher minimum-guarantee revenue from the duty-free business. Management expects passenger numbers in 2027 to potentially expand by about 8.8%, as Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, has confirmed plans to expand its routes and aircraft delivery delays are beginning to ease. Meanwhile, AOTGA, which has been approved as the third ground handling and cargo service provider at Suvarnabhumi Airport, is expected to generate about 500 million baht per year for AOT through revenue sharing and its share of profit from investments in associates. The resumption of inbound duty-free services is expected to add about 600 million baht per year to AOT's profit if approved.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.