Sri Trang Agro-Industry Public Company Limited

Kanthara Ladawan Na Ayudhya, an executive director at Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, said the overall Thai stock market still faces short-term pressure, with the SET Index likely to move in a sideways-down pattern after falling more than 35 points earlier, and this is not yet the moment to aggressively add to positions. Key support sits at 1,561 points, while resistance is at 1,612-1,620 points. Over the longer term, the firm still targets the index above 1,700 points next year if a major positive catalyst emerges. External factors to watch include crude oil prices holding high around 102 dollars per barrel, which would add pressure on inflation and interest rates, as well as bond yields that may stay elevated for a prolonged period. The market prices only about a 25% chance that the Fed will raise rates at its October 2026 meeting, but as high as roughly 80% for the December 2026 meeting. On foreign fund flows, slight positive signals have emerged after foreign investors flipped back to long futures positions following seven consecutive days of short positions. For investment strategy, FSS recommends a wait-and-see approach and a focus on stock-specific selection. Its top picks for October are BBL, DELTA and STA, while PTTEP benefits from high oil prices. FSS sets a fundamental value of 290 baht for DELTA and 166 baht for PTTEP.

Trinity Securities assesses that the Thai stock market index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will fluctuate within a range of 1,500-1,700 points, noting that the current index level has fallen into a zone where reward clearly outweighs risk. For those who still hold Thai stocks at low levels, or who need to invest to reduce taxes this year, the current index area is seen as an opportunity to gradually accumulate (Buy the Dip). As for the investment strategy for the fourth quarter, the research department recommends a defensive approach focused on its quarterly recommended stocks, namely BTG, TFG, AWC, ERW, CRC, COM7, STA, TVO, AMATA and STECON.

Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two securities, STA and SCC. For STA, it recommends buying with a target price of 23.90 baht, assessing support at 20.6 and 21.3 and resistance at 23.0 and 23.4. It expects normal profit in the third quarter of 2026 to rise year on year but fall quarter on quarter, owing to the high base in the second quarter of 2026 and some customers delaying orders to wait and see rubber prices. It expects continued support from the SICOM TSR20 rubber price, which rose from the previous quarter, while EUDR rubber sales volume is expected to increase to approximately 30,000 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026 from 17,214 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, and to rise to more than 60,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2026, helping support both ASP and GPM. For SCC, it recommends buying with a target price of 268 baht, assessing support at 248 and 252 and resistance at 266 and 270. SCC and PTTGC reported progress on the establishment of a joint venture, saying it is advancing well and has entered the due diligence stage to verify information, and that they are in the process of agreeing on the key terms of the transaction. The main asset scope of the joint venture covers olefins production plants, PE and PP production plants, and investments in the joint ventures of both parties, with PTTGC to be the major shareholder while SCGC will hold a significant stake. The view is positive, and the next progress announcement at the end of October regarding clarity on the shareholding proportions and the value of synergies will be a factor supporting the stock going forward.

Kasikorn Securities said in an analysis note following its KS C-Series event with STA management on September 30 that executives remain positive on the upcycle in natural rubber, expecting global rubber supply to stay tight through 2027-2028 as shrinking supply outweighs modest demand growth. STA expects Thailand's natural rubber output to fall about 5-12% year on year this year, hurt by heavy rain that disrupted tapping and by some farmers switching to oil palm. Indonesia's output is expected to drop by about 500,000 tons, or 25% year on year, while additional supply from Ivory Coast is seen at only about 200,000 tons, leaving net regional supply significantly lower. Management expects the average selling price of natural rubber to rise to about USD 2.3 per kilogram in the third quarter of 2026 and USD 2.5 per kilogram in the fourth quarter, from USD 2.1 per kilogram in the first half of 2026. It kept its 2026 rubber sales volume target at 1.5 million tons and its gross profit margin target for the natural rubber business at 8-9%, compared with 9.3% in the second quarter of 2026 and 8.7% in the first quarter. Sales of rubber meeting EUDR standards are expected to exceed 40,000 tons in the third quarter of 2026 and 60,000 tons in the fourth quarter, versus only 17,000 tons in the second quarter, though uncertainty remains over EUDR enforcement. At STGT, management expects production costs for rubber gloves to rise in the second half of 2026 on higher latex prices, with sales volume still uncertain. The research team maintained its Buy rating and 26.00 baht target price, based on a sum-of-the-parts method using a target price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 times for the natural rubber business and a 13.00 baht target price for STGT. It said it prefers STA over STGT given the more positive second-half 2026 profit outlook.

Kasikorn Securities assesses that the SET Index will move in a range of 1,550-1,580 points today, with the market likely to rebound after digesting US inflation figures that came in below expectations. August PCE stood at 3.4% year-on-year and Core PCE at 3.0% year-on-year, helping ease pressure over Fed rate hikes in the short term, even though the market still assigns weight to the chance the Fed will resume raising rates again late in the year. Earlier, the SET Index closed at 1,559.01 points, down 35.29 points or 2.21%, pressured by selling in banking, finance, retail and energy stocks, with foreign investors selling Thai shares on a net basis of 10.735 billion baht. Part of this stemmed from concerns over the impact of the flood situation, which could add downside to Thailand's economic forecasts, and the market must also monitor management of the northern water mass in early October, especially the impact on Bangkok, its surrounding provinces and key economic areas. Investment themes to watch include China's Golden Week, which supports Thai tourism, with Trip.com Group reporting that flight bookings to Phuket rose 78% year-on-year and bookings for stays of seven nights or more rose 123%; the management of roughly 3.4 billion cubic metres of northern water flowing through the Chao Phraya Dam; trade negotiations with the United States, with the goal of keeping tariffs on Thai goods at no more than 19%; and the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan, which focuses on High Impact and Game Changer projects. For recommended stocks today, Kasikorn Securities gives STA a target price of 26.00 baht on the prospect of tight global rubber supply and expects average selling prices to rise from 2.1 dollars per kilogram in the first half to 2.3-2.5 dollars in the third and fourth quarters, and DELTA a target price of 300.00 baht, viewing the recent correction as merely a short-term reset driven by still-strong AI demand, and expects normal profit to grow by an average of about 32% during 2026-2028.

Land and Houses Securities issued an analysis recommending the purchase of two stocks, DELTA and STA, giving DELTA a strategic target price of 320 baht, equivalent to a FY69F P/E of 117x, with resistance estimated at 279 baht, support at 258 baht, and a stop loss at 250 baht. It expects Q3/69F profit to recover both quarter on quarter and year on year after the raw material shortage in Q2/69 eased, while a product mix shift toward higher-margin AI and data center and liquid cooling products supports gross profit margin recovering to around 30%, and it expects profit momentum to accelerate further in Q4/69. For STA, it gives a strategic target price of 23.9 baht, equivalent to a FY69F P/E of 11.3x, with resistance estimated at 23.5 baht, support at 21.6 baht, and a stop loss at 20.7 baht. It expects normal profit in Q3/69F to rise year on year even as it softens quarter on quarter from a high base in Q2/69, helped by a rise in SICOM TSR20 rubber prices in Q3/69, and it expects sales volume to increase to around 30,000 tonnes in Q3/69 from 17,214 tonnes in Q2/69 and to more than 60,000 tonnes in Q4/69, supporting both average selling price and gross profit margin, while global rubber supply remains tight due to limited output from Indonesia and Ivory Coast.

The Ministry of Commerce reported Thailand's trade figures for August 2026, with exports expanding 24.3% year-on-year. Although this was below the market expectation of 24.8% year-on-year, it accelerated from 21.6% year-on-year in July 2026. Meanwhile, imports expanded 25.1% year-on-year, below market expectations and below July 2026's 30.0% year-on-year and 36.7% year-on-year respectively. Among export goods that grew well in the agricultural product group were fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit, up 24.0%; rubber, up 23.2%; fresh, chilled and frozen shrimp, up 18.8%; and processed chicken, up 10.5%. In the agro-industrial product group, pet food grew 17.5% and canned and processed seafood grew 4.8%. In the industrial product group, video and audio equipment and parts grew 1,155.7%; telephones, equipment and parts grew 151.2%; electrical transformers and parts grew 55.6%; computers, equipment and parts grew 42.1%; electrical appliances and parts grew 40.9%; integrated circuit boards grew 19.2%; and gems and jewelry, excluding gold, grew 3.2%, returning to growth after contracting the previous month. The research team at Phillip Securities sees this as positive sentiment for export stocks in the categories that grew well, as well as stocks related to those export goods, and views it as a boost for industrial estate and utility stocks. It selected 17 standout stocks: in the agricultural product group, CPF, NER, STA and TEGH; in the agro-industrial product group, AAI, ITC and TU; in the industrial product group, CCET, DELTA, HANA, HTECH and KCE; and in the industrial estate and utility group, AMATA, BGRIM, GPSC, ROJNA and WHA.

Three brokerages issued their daily investment strategy views. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to slow within a range of 1,595 to 1,610 points, pressured by a sharp rise in US bond yields, with 5-year and 10-year yields breaking above 5%, while crude oil prices turned back up above US$100 per barrel once again. CGS International (Thailand) sees the SET Index in a range of 1,600 to 1,630 points, supported by the positive factor of the US and China agreeing to extend their trade truce by another two months until January 10, 2570. DAOL expects the SET Index to move sideways after the investment mood came back under pressure from bond yields and rising oil prices. For today's top picks, PTTEP is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 180.00 baht, and AOT is rated 'Buy' with a target price of 72.00 baht. Finansia Syrus's top picks for September are BTG, HANA, ITC, PR9 and STA, with STA rated 'Trading Buy' with a target price of 23 baht. MOSHI expects same-store sales growth of 4.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, and PR9 expects net profit for the hospital group in the third quarter of 2026 to rise 11% year on year and 31% quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, the ADB raised its forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2026 to 2.0% from 1.8%, but cut its 2027 forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%.

September earnings estimates for the SET were revised up a further 0.7% month on month and 15.6% since the start of the year, driven mainly by sectors benefiting from higher energy and commodity prices. Petrochemicals led the way with a 6.2% month-on-month increase, as PTTGC rose 13% and IVL gained 7%. The energy sector rose 1.8%, led by refiners BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, which lifted the estimate for sector heavyweight PTT by a further 2%. The agricultural sector rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA's earnings estimate revised up 26%. However, the upward revisions are no longer as broad-based as before: fuel station operators PTG fell 26% and OR dropped 4%, while power plant groups SPP, BGRIM and GPSC slipped 2% and 1% respectively. In real estate, LH fell 1% and ORI dropped 13%, reflecting a growing divergence in earnings estimate trends between sectors and individual companies. Stocks still seeing upward revisions included AWC up 8%, CENTEL up 5%, BJC up 4%, CRC up 3%, AMATA up 8% and GUNKUL up 2%.

Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.

Sri Trang Agro-Industry Public Company Limited, or STA, is benefiting from rising natural rubber prices after heavy rain in growing areas tightened supply, pushing rubber prices on both the Tokyo and Singapore futures markets to high levels. An investor relations officer at STA told Than Hoon that if the EUDR regulation is not postponed from taking effect at the end of this year, the company is ready to immediately ramp up EUDR rubber production. The company expects sales of 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, with the fourth quarter of 2026 doubling again to return to its historical average of about 60,000 tonnes per quarter, after sales of this type of rubber fell to about 17,000 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, down from roughly 233,000 tonnes for all of 2025. Analysts at Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited estimate that third-quarter 2026 profit could soften compared with the second quarter of 2026 due to lower sales volume and gross profit from a high base, but they raised their SICOM TSR20 range for the second half of 2026 to 215 to 235 cents per kilogram from 190 to 220 cents per kilogram. Meanwhile, Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited noted that the SICOM rubber price surged past 240 cents per kilogram, hitting its highest level in nearly 10 years, and recommended trading for profit with a target price of 23 baht.

Land and Houses Securities has initiated coverage on STA, or Sri Trang Agro-Industry, Thailand's leading natural rubber producer, with a Buy rating and a target price of 23.90 baht. The company holds roughly 35% market share and has production capacity of 3.72 million tonnes per year. The target price is based on a PER of 11.30 times, or 0.75 standard deviations above the five-year historical average, reflecting upward rubber price momentum, a recovery in gross margin, and forward EPS of 2.12 baht per share in 2027. It also expects a 2026 dividend of 1 baht per share, implying a dividend yield of about 4.8%. The research team forecasts normalised profit of 2.701 billion baht in 2026, up 734.3% from a loss of 426 million baht the previous year, driven by expected revenue of 128.517 billion baht, up 13.3%, and GPM expanding from 6.2% to 9.7%, under the assumption of an average full-year rubber selling price of 220 US cents per kilogram. For the third quarter of 2026, normalised profit is expected to grow year on year but decline quarter on quarter from the high base in the second quarter. The SICOM TSR20 rubber price rose to about 230 US cents per kilogram from 220 US cents per kilogram in the previous quarter, and EUDR rubber sales volume is expected to increase to about 30,000 tonnes from 17,214 tonnes in the second quarter, with more than 60,000 tonnes expected in the fourth quarter. The company continues to pursue a strategy of raising the share of EUDR rubber, which sells at a higher price than general rubber, targeting sales volume of 30,000 tonnes per month. Meanwhile, limited rubber supply from Indonesia and Ivory Coast, along with the effects of El Nino, leaf fall disease in Indonesia, and the reduction of rubber plantation area as land is converted to palm oil, are factors supporting rubber prices. China remains the main market, accounting for more than 60% of natural rubber business revenue, while the rubber glove business exports to more than 175 countries worldwide.

Krungsri Securities said in an analysis that over the past week rubber prices rose 4.8% week-on-week on tight supply after heavy rain and flooding in Thailand and Vietnam reduced tapping, compounded by El Niño concerns and rising orders from tire makers stockpiling raw materials for the fourth quarter of 2026. Sugar prices rose 1.0% week-on-week, extending gains for a sixth consecutive week, on concerns that El Niño and wildfires in Brazil will pressure output. Soybean prices rose 0.9% week-on-week on strong Chinese demand, while crude palm oil prices fell 0.4% week-on-week after Malaysia reported a slight seasonal rise in end-month inventories. The research team rates the sector Bullish and keeps TFG as its Top pick for long-term investment, with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 14.20 baht, citing store expansion, raw material costs locked in through the third quarter of 2027, and a dividend yield of about 8% per year paid quarterly. It also sees TVO, STA and NER as the stocks benefiting most clearly from the Super El Niño theme.

Rubber-related stocks have regained attention as natural rubber prices remain favorable for profits. NER reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 436.36 million baht, up from the previous quarter. STA swung back to profitability with first-half profit of 1.54 billion baht. STGT's profit surged 635% year-on-year, while TEGH saw profit growth of 104%. TRUBB narrowed its loss to 16.29 million baht. Global supply tightness due to weather conditions supports prices, but the second half still faces risks from costs and slowing orders.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the renewed tensions in the Middle East, following the US attack on an island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to retaliate by striking US allies in the UAE and Jordan, will pressure global financial markets. However, the structure of the Thai stock market, with its high proportion of commodity stocks, will help support the index. Foreign investors have accumulated net sales in the Thai stock market totaling 24.565 billion baht, while in the futures market (TFEX), foreigners have continued to accumulate net short positions for two consecutive months, totaling over 51,000 contracts. This puts downward pressure on the baht, which recently stood at 33.16 baht per US dollar, benefiting export, tourism, and hospital groups, especially stocks like STA (+7.01%), KCE (+6.14%), TASCO (+5.95%), as well as IRPC and SPRC, which have shown notable gains. The research department recommends a Selective Buy strategy for dividend-paying stocks and upstream energy, highlighting BBL, trading at a P/BV of only 0.6 times, cheaper than the group average of 1.2 times; PTT, benefiting from higher crude oil prices; and BCH, with a recovering earnings outlook. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to today's European CPI data, expected at +3.3% YoY, and US CPI on September 11, expected to remain steady at +3.4% YoY, as well as Tesla shares, which rose +5.5% ahead of the Cybercab launch event.

Rubber stocks rose against the market trend, with TRUBB up 5.83% to 1.09 baht, STA up 0.94% to 21.50 baht, and NER up 0.43% to 4.66 baht, following reports that rubber exports in July expanded for two consecutive months, +33.8% year-on-year, and +12.5% in June. Despite the first seven months still being down 9.4%. Kasikorn Securities recommends "Buy" on STA, maintaining a sales target of 1.5 million tons, and expects Q3/69 ASP at US$2.2-2.3 per kilogram. It also raised profit estimates for 2026-2028 by 40%, 16%, and 17% to 3.5, 3.4, and 3.7 billion baht, and raised the mid-2027 target price to 26.00 baht from 21.90 baht, citing tight supply from rains in Thailand and lower Indonesian output to support rubber prices.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that trade data for July 2026 showed Thai export value surged to 34,789.1 million US dollars, up 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 17.8%. This brings the first seven months' growth to 18.2%, and builds confidence that full-year exports will grow at a double-digit rate. Although there was a trade deficit this month, it narrowed from the previous month. Beneficiary stock groups include electronics (KCE, HANA) growing 67% on AI trends and global component demand; refined oil (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC) expanding 120%; agricultural and food products, rubber (STA, NER) up 33%; pet food (ITC, AAI) up 17%; and processed chicken still expanding well. However, risk factors from additional US semiconductor industry tariffs may impact Thai stocks such as HANA, CCET, KCE, and DELTA more in terms of negative sentiment than direct earnings impact, as Thailand is in the production chain that could face indirect shocks from slowing global goods demand.

Yuan Ta Securities has a positive outlook on Sri Trang Agro-Industry (STA) after an analyst meeting. The company has lowered its 2026 sales volume target from 1.6 million tons to 1.45-1.50 million tons, in line with first-half sales of 700,000 tons, and expects the fourth quarter to be the highest sales quarter of the year. Meanwhile, it has raised its second-half selling price to 215-235 US cents per kilogram, up from the previous full-year average estimate of 190-220 US cents per kilogram. Rubber prices are expected to remain strong due to tight supply, especially in Indonesia, where output could fall 25% in 2026, and an El Niño event would further support prices. For EUDR rubber, there are early positive signs as customers resume orders, with third-quarter sales volume expected to rise about 100% from the previous quarter to 30,000-40,000 tons, and a further 10% growth expected in the fourth quarter. Normalized profit for the third quarter is estimated at around 800 million baht, recovering from a heavy loss in the same period last year but down from the second quarter due to customers delaying orders in anticipation of lower rubber prices. The research house maintains a Buy recommendation with a target price of 25.50 baht, based on 2026-27 PER of 11.3 times and 9.3 times, and a dividend yield of about 6%.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's export value in July 2026 stood at 34.8 billion US dollars, expanding 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectation of 17.8%. Meanwhile, imports for the same month were 38.4 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, lower than expected, resulting in a trade deficit of 3.61 billion US dollars, less than forecast. Products with good growth include rubber, processed chicken, pet food, processed canned seafood, and electronic goods. Stocks in these sectors, such as STA, GFPT, ITC, TU, DELTA, HANA, and KCE, benefit accordingly. In the first seven months of the year, exports totaled 232 billion US dollars, up 18.2%, while imports were 267 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, with a trade deficit of 35.4 billion US dollars. The Ministry of Commerce sees support from global demand for technology products and digital infrastructure, as well as accelerated imports to prepare for US trade policies. Meanwhile, brokers like Krungsri Securities and Phillip Securities view positively on export-related stocks and recommend top picks such as DELTA, HANA, KCE, AMATA, GULF, GPSC, KBANK, and KTB.

Trinity Securities has raised its target price for Sri Trang Agro-Industry (STA) shares to 24.60 baht from 23.00 baht, while maintaining a speculative buy recommendation. The firm expects the company to return to profitability in 2026, driven by higher natural rubber prices. The research department forecasts 2026 profit to increase to 2.6 billion baht from 1.9 billion baht, after raising gross margin assumptions on higher average selling prices. Sales volume for 2026 is projected at 1.45-1.50 million tonnes, down from 1.6 million tonnes, due to reduced supply from heavy rainfall, particularly in Thailand where output may decline by 5% and Indonesia by up to 25%. Meanwhile, natural rubber prices remain 20% cheaper than synthetic rubber, attracting glove and tire manufacturers to use more natural rubber, despite overall tire demand growing only 1-3%. The company also announced an interim dividend of 0.50 baht per share, with the XD date on August 27, 2026, representing a dividend yield of 2.8%.

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

STA shares climbed 3.23% to 19.20 baht after analysts forecast third-quarter 2026 profit to remain strong and set a target price of 22 baht per share. Finansia Syrus Securities said STA reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 895 million baht, up 38.7% from the previous quarter and 197% from a year earlier, with core profit at 1.15 billion baht, the highest in 17 quarters and above the research team's estimate of 763 million baht. Overall gross margin came in at 12%, above the 10.3% forecast, as the rubber glove business saw its margin rise to 17% from 10.4% on higher selling prices, while the natural rubber business posted a margin of 9.3%, up from 8.7% in the previous quarter. Finansia Syrus expects second-half 2026 profit may soften from the second quarter of 2026 due to lower rubber glove selling prices and weaker SICOM rubber prices at around 210 to 220 US cents per kilogram, but still expects third-quarter 2026 profit to remain at a good level, with a chance for SICOM rubber prices to rebound above 230 US cents per kilogram in the fourth quarter of 2026 if hot weather from the El Niño phenomenon materialises and the EUDR regulation is not postponed. STA also announced a dividend for the first six months of 2026 at 0.50 baht per share, representing a yield of 2.7%.

Sri Trang Agro-Industry Public Company Limited, or STA, reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 895 million baht, up 38.7 percent from the previous quarter and the highest level in four years. Revenue came in at 31.0038 billion baht, growing 15.5 percent from the previous quarter. As a result, first-half 2026 net profit reached 1.5404 billion baht, swinging from a loss in the same period last year, supported by high natural rubber prices and a pickup in customer restocking. The average TSR20 block rubber price on the SICOM market in the second quarter was 217.8 US cents per kilogram, up 13.7 percent from the previous quarter and 29.7 percent from a year earlier. The board of directors approved an interim dividend of 0.50 baht per share, with the stock set to trade excluding dividend on 27 August 2026 and payment scheduled for 11 September 2026.

Globlex Securities, or GBS, estimates that the Thai stock index in August is likely to move in a range of 1,600 to 1,650 points, supported by a more relaxed investment climate for risk assets. This follows President Donald Trump's cancellation of plans to attack Iran and the achievement of a temporary ceasefire agreement, which caused WTI crude oil prices to ease below 80 US dollars per barrel, after having surged past 88 US dollars per barrel. In addition, the OPEC+ group is likely to increase production capacity by another 188,000 barrels per day in September. Meanwhile, investors have reduced the probability of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September to 65 percent from 82 percent, and the European Central Bank kept its policy rate at 2.25 percent. On the domestic front, foreign capital inflows have clearly returned, with net purchases in July reaching as high as 45 billion to 48.7 billion baht, up from 6.86 billion baht in the previous month, bringing cumulative net purchases since the beginning of the year to 73 billion to 74.3 billion baht. This is coupled with June exports expanding 20.8 percent, valued at 34.66 billion US dollars, and headline inflation slowing to 2.42 percent. GBS recommends an investment strategy focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and outstanding second-quarter 2026 earnings growth prospects, namely CBG, STA, BBGI, PR9, and TNP.

Analysts at Finansia Syrus Securities assess that the SET Index in August 2026 has a chance to rise and test key resistance at 1,680 to 1,700 points, maintaining a positive view as long as the index holds above 1,580 to 1,600 points. They have also raised the index target to 1,710 points by mid-2027, based on an estimated average earnings per share of 100.5 baht and a target price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times. Second-quarter 2026 net profits of Thai listed companies are expected to decline 7% from the previous quarter and 10% from the same period last year, pressured by banking, energy, transport, and property sectors, while electronics, petrochemicals, packaging, and telecoms show better trends. Analysts also believe foreign fund inflows into the Thai stock market will continue, as foreign ownership excluding DELTA remains below past peaks. For the August strategy, they recommend selective investment in stocks with standout second-quarter 2026 results and bright second-half outlooks, highlighting picks such as BTG, ITC, MAGURO, SJWD, and STA.

Thailand's exports in June 2026 expanded 20.8 percent from a year earlier, exceeding market expectations of around 15 percent, with a value of 34.6 billion dollars. Meanwhile, imports rose 50.3 percent to 41.1 billion dollars, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately 6.53 to 6.57 billion dollars. Key export growth drivers included pet food, which expanded for the tenth consecutive month, rising 22 percent, supporting ITC and AAI. Processed chicken grew for the seventh straight month, up 8.2 percent, boosting GFPT. Computers and components expanded for the 27th consecutive month, rising 57.4 percent, while phones, equipment, and components grew for the 13th straight month, surging 186 percent, benefiting electronic component stocks such as DELTA, HANA, and CCET. Rubber returned to growth for the first time in 14 months, supporting STA. On the risk side, new US tariff measures under Section 301 could affect some export stocks in the second half of the year.

The European Union has classified Thailand as a low-risk country under the EU Deforestation Regulation, or EUDR. This means rubber importers from Thailand are eligible for Simplified Due Diligence and face random inspections at a rate of just one percent, which is lower than Indonesia and Malaysia. The move enhances the competitiveness of Thai rubber and rubber product exports while elevating the sustainability image of Thai goods. However, Thailand still needs to accelerate the development of traceability systems and smallholder farmer data to comply with the new rules. Kasikorn Securities noted this is positive for the rubber sector and exporters such as Sri Trang Agro-Industry, North East Rubber, and Thai Rubber Latex Group, as they stand to maintain their European market share and improve competitiveness under the new EUDR.

Finansia Syrus Securities has raised its target for the SET Index to 1,710 points by mid-2027, based on an estimated average earnings per share of 100.5 baht and a target PER of 17 times. The research team lifted its 2026 earnings per share estimate by 3 percent to 99 baht, and its 2027 estimate to 102 baht, reflecting growth of 13 percent and 4 percent from the prior year, respectively. It also sees the Thai economy recovering steadily and foreign capital flows having a chance to return to the Thai stock market, as foreign investors' holdings of Thai equities remain below past peaks. Recommended top picks include BA, BBL, BDMS, CPALL, CPF, CPN, ERW, GULF, SAPPE, STA, and TIDLOR.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thai exports in June 2026 reached 34.66 billion dollars, up 20.8 percent from the same month last year, extending growth for a 24th consecutive month and exceeding market expectations of 13.7 to 15.2 percent. Meanwhile, imports totaled 41.19 billion dollars, rising 50.3 percent, resulting in a June trade deficit of 6.53 billion dollars. For the first half of the year, exports amounted to 196.74 billion dollars, up 17.6 percent, and imports reached 228.49 billion dollars, up 38.0 percent, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of 31.74 billion dollars. Analysts at Yuanta Securities noted that the stronger-than-expected exports and the deficit are factors weighing on the currency, and highlighted five stock groups poised to benefit: rubber, which returned to growth of 12.5 percent after 14 months, supporting STA, NER, and TEGH; processed chicken, supporting GFPT, TFG, and CPF; pet food, which continued to grow 22.3 percent for a tenth straight month, supporting ITC and AAI; canned seafood, which resumed expansion at 17.5 percent, supporting TU; and electronic components, which accelerated growth, supporting SMT, CCET, KCE, and HANA.

ASL Securities holds a positive view on STA's earnings outlook, expecting second-quarter 2026 profit to recover strongly both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher sales volumes and average selling prices. The second-half 2026 trend continues to show positive momentum, with the natural rubber business benefiting from forward sales contracts at elevated prices, while the rubber glove business is supported by rising demand for natural rubber gloves. This follows the Middle East conflict, which has raised synthetic rubber glove costs and tightened supply. Macro factors also support medium- to long-term growth in the rubber business, given tight natural rubber supply as farmers switch to higher-yielding oil palm cultivation, along with weather impacts reducing output. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow with the expansion of the electric vehicle industry and restocking by tire manufacturers, particularly customers in China, keeping rubber price trends at levels conducive to STA's profitability. STA also enjoys competitive advantages from its ESG leadership and readiness for the European Union's EUDR regulations through its continuously developed traceability system, enhancing opportunities to sell premium products and maintain market share. Valuation is attractive, with the stock trading at only about 0.6 to 0.7 times price-to-book value, below historical averages, and an expected dividend yield of around 6 to 7 percent. There is also hidden value from the T-VER carbon credit project, which has already been certified for over 14,000 tonnes of carbon and is expected to increase to around 300,000 tonnes by the end of 2026. ASL therefore views STA as a stock offering profit recovery potential, undemanding valuation, and attractive dividend returns. In terms of sentiment, STA may serve as a natural hedge for investment portfolios amid prolonged Middle East tensions, as rising oil prices tend to support natural rubber prices through higher synthetic rubber production costs, positively impacting STA's revenue and margins. This aligns with the SGX SICOM TSR20 futures price, which has risen 4.7 percent over the past three months, reflecting an upward rubber price trend. On the technical front, the price has pulled back in the short term to test support at the 13-day SMA around 18.40 to 18.30 baht, before seeing a technical rebound with a long white candlestick firmly closing above 19.00 baht. This buy signal suggests a test of resistance at the previous candlestick high or double top at 19.30 to 19.40 baht, and psychological resistance at 20.00 and 20.50 baht. ASL Securities recommends "buy" for existing shareholders to hold or accumulate, with potential to test resistance at 19.40, 20.00, and 20.50 baht. For those without positions, short-term buying is advised, focusing on holding above support at 19.00 baht and 18.40 to 18.30 baht, which should not be breached.