Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited offers commercial banking products and services in Thailand and internationally. It operates through Domestic Banking, International Banking, Investment Banking, and Others segments. The bank provides personal banking services such as deposits, loans, mutual funds, bancassurance, payment and transfer services, cards, and digital banking. It also offers business banking, securities services, trade finance, and financial advisory services. Founded in 1944, it is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Flood relief hits bank margins, but BBL still a top pick for investment cycle
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Flood relief measures squeeze margins Bangkok Bank and peers are offering flood-hit customers up to 12 months of principal deferral, installment cuts up to 40%, and SME loans at 3.5%. This reduces interest income and pressures margins, but BBL's retail exposure is under 10%, so the hit is smaller than at some rivals.
This is the main new negative event this period, directly affecting BBL's lending profitability.
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Q3 profit forecast to fall sharply Finansia expects BBL to post the largest year-on-year profit decline among Thai banks in Q3 2026, as three policy rate cuts over the past year have reduced interest income. This confirms a weak earnings season ahead, weighing on the stock.
This is a new, specific negative forecast for BBL's upcoming earnings, which matters to investors.
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Brokers still name BBL a top pick Kasikorn, Asia Plus, and InnovestX all highlight BBL as a top pick for Q4 2026, citing the new investment cycle, cheap valuation, and attractive 4-7% dividend yield. This supports demand for the stock even as short-term earnings are weak.
This shows the positive counterweight to the negative flood and earnings news, explaining why BBL may still attract buyers.
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Flood impact seen as limited, buying opportunity Kasikorn Securities says past floods only dragged the market down about 1% and advises accumulating bank stocks like BBL on dips. KGI also sees the pullback as a chance to buy, expecting no major economic damage. This limits panic selling.
This explains why the flood news may not cause a sustained sell-off, providing balance to the negative drivers.
Q3 2026
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Bangkok Bank hit by profit drop and bad loans, but cheap valuation attracts buyers
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Q2 profit miss and rising bad loans Q2 net profit fell 19.8% to 9.5 billion baht, missing estimates, while the bad loan ratio rose to 3.3%, partly due to Italian-Thai Development debt. This raised concerns about asset quality.
This was a key negative factor that weighed on the stock early in the period.
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Sector-wide profit pressure and TWZ default Fitch warned of sector-wide profit pressure from slower growth, thinner margins, and rising SME and retail bad loans. Later, the TWZ default exposed BBL to about 597 million baht in losses, and Q3 profit was forecast to drop 24–32% year-on-year.
These events added to negative sentiment and directly impacted earnings expectations.
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Cheap valuation and dividend yield attract buyers Broker upgrades on cheap valuation (0.6–0.9x book) and 4–7% dividend yield, foreign inflows into Thai banks, a weak baht and manufacturing shift supporting exporters, Fitch’s outlook upgrade, and central bank SME credit support helped offset negatives.
These factors provided support and upside potential for the stock.
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Flood relief impact seen as limited Flood relief squeezed margins, but analysts saw limited impact and a buying opportunity. This balanced the negative news with a positive spin.
This shows a counterweight to the negative drivers and highlights analyst optimism.
News & notes movingBBL.BK
Thailand
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CGSI expects Q3/2026 bank profits to shrink 9.2%, names KBANK as Top Pick
CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, estimates that the combined net profit of the eight banks covered by its analysts in the third quarter of 2026 will come to 57.4 billion baht, down 9.2% from the same period a year earlier but up 1.8% from the previous quarter. The decline is pressured by an overall commercial banking sector loan book that is trending toward slower expansion, based on monthly loan data from the Bank of Thailand for August 2026, which showed that large corporate customers of Bangkok Bank, or BBL, and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, made substantial debt repayments. As a result, the combined loans of the banks covered by the analysts fell 0.1% in August from the previous month, though they still grew 3.0% from the same period a year earlier and are up 2.4% since the start of the year. The banks still posting positive loan growth are led by Thai Credit Bank, or CREDIT, Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. Pre-provision operating profit is expected to fall 6.8% from the same period a year earlier but rise 1.7% from the previous quarter, while the net interest margin is expected at 2.89% and the non-performing loan ratio at 3.66%. Breaking it down bank by bank, KKP is expected to post the strongest performance, with net profit growing as much as 32.2% from the same period a year earlier, followed by TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, whose net profit is expected to grow 4.6% from the same period a year earlier. On the other hand, BBL is expected to post the weakest results, with net profit down 24.5% from the same period a year earlier, followed by KTB, whose net profit is expected to fall 16% from the same period a year earlier. On investment strategy, CGSI recommends maintaining a Neutral weighting and selects Kasikornbank, or KBANK, as its Top Pick for the sector, given that fee income from wealth management accounted for as much as 18% of its non-interest income in 2025, and it expects a dividend yield of as much as 6.2% in 2026, beating the sector average of 5.6%.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative BBL expected to post the weakest results with net profit down 24.5% YoY, pressured by large corporate debt repayments.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive CGSI selects Kasikornbank as its Top Pick with a Neutral sector weighting.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP expected to post the strongest performance with net profit growing 32.2% YoY.
KTB.BK · Capital · Negative KTB expected to post net profit down 16% YoY, among the weakest results.
CREDIT.BK · Capital · Positive Thai Credit Bank is among the banks still posting positive loan growth.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive CGSI notes TISCO is among the banks still posting positive loan growth, a favorable mention in the Q3/2026 earnings preview.
4 brokerages expect Q3/2026 bank group profits to slow to 49,400-54,980 million baht
Four leading brokerages estimate that the combined net profit of seven commercial banks in the third quarter of 2026 will slow compared with a year earlier and hold steady to edge down from the previous quarter, with combined net profit expected at around 49,400 to 54,980 million baht, according to Yuanta Securities (Thailand), Bualuang Securities, Finansia Syrus Securities, and Kasikorn Securities. The main pressures come from net interest margins narrowing along the rate-cutting cycle, lower investment and FVTPL gains from a high base a year earlier, and still-limited growth in retail and SME loans. These are partly offset by lighter provisioning after many banks front-loaded reserves in the first half, a steady average non-performing loan ratio of about 3.5%, and fee income beginning to recover on wealth management and capital markets business. For the fourth-quarter outlook, the brokerages see the overall picture weakening further both year on year and quarter on quarter, possibly marking the year's low, while for the full year 2026 they expect the bank group's combined net profit to fall about 3.5% to 5.3% before returning to roughly 5% growth in 2027. On top picks, Yuanta chose KKP with a target price of 130 baht, Bualuang chose KKP, TISCO, BBL, KBANK and TTB, Finansia Syrus chose BBL with a target price of 240 baht and KTB with a target price of 47.30 baht, while Kasikorn chose KTB and KKP, raising their target prices by 1% to 3%.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP is a top pick for both Yuanta (130 baht target) and Kasikorn Securities, which raised its target price.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Finansia Syrus picks KTB with a 47.30 baht target and Kasikorn Securities also selects KTB while raising target prices.
BBL.BK · Capital · Neutral Bualuang and Finansia Syrus name BBL a top pick with a 240 baht target, but the group's Q3/2026 profits are seen slowing on margin pressure.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Neutral Bualuang lists KBANK among top picks, yet the bank group's Q3/2026 net profit is expected to slow on narrowing NIMs and lower FVTPL gains.
TTB.BK · Capital · Negative Brokerages expect the bank group's Q3/2026 combined net profit to slow on narrowing net interest margins and lower investment/FVTPL gains, with TTB named among Bualuang's top picks.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO is named among Bualuang Securities' top picks for the bank group.
ASL Securities says fiscal 2026 budget disbursement beat target, boosting contractor and bank stocks
ASL Securities said budget disbursement for fiscal year 2026 came in better than target, with 3.62 trillion baht disbursed out of a total budget of 3.78 trillion baht, or 95.83%, above the 93% target and 4.58% higher than the same period a year earlier. This reflects improved efficiency in channeling state funds into the economy, with capital expenditure accelerating notably year on year. Capital spending disbursed reached 586 billion baht, or 75.07% of the 781 billion baht investment budget, up 8.63% year on year. Meanwhile, capital expenditure set aside for carry-over disbursement in fiscal year 2027 stood at 193 billion baht, or 24.75% of the capital expenditure budget, and the government has set a deadline to accelerate the creation of commitments for both carry-over and fiscal 2027 investment budgets within the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Given these factors, ASL Securities views this as positive sentiment for groups tied to public investment. It recommends the construction sector, namely CK and STECON, which benefit directly from accelerated public investment and disbursement, and the banking sector, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, which benefit indirectly through increased liquidity flowing into the system and a recovery in loan demand. KTB stands out for its government customer base, while BBL and KBANK stand to gain from a recovery in corporate lending and the subsequent pickup in private investment.
CK.BK · Demand · Positive CK recommended as a construction firm benefiting directly from accelerated public investment and budget disbursement.
STECON.BK · Demand · Positive STECON recommended as a construction firm benefiting directly from accelerated public investment and disbursement.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB stands out for its government customer base, benefiting indirectly from increased liquidity and loan demand from budget disbursement.
BBL.BK · Demand · Positive BBL named as a bank benefiting indirectly from increased liquidity and a recovery in corporate lending from accelerated public investment.
KBANK.BK · Demand · Positive KBANK named as a bank gaining from a recovery in corporate lending and pickup in private investment tied to public spending.
Asia Plus expects 8 banks' Q3/2026 profit at 65 billion baht, up 1.6% QoQ
Asia Plus Securities estimates the combined net profit of eight banks in the third quarter of 2026 at 65 billion baht, growing 1.6% from the previous quarter but falling 8.8% from a year earlier, due to the high base of securities trading revenue last year, particularly at Bangkok Bank. It expects only KKP, TISCO and TTB to post year-on-year profit increases. Quarter-on-quarter growth is led by Krungthai Bank, up 7%, on a recovery in net interest income in line with loans and trading revenue boosted by mark-to-market gains on low-cost THAI shares, followed by Bangkok Bank, up 5%, on expected seasonal declines in OPEX and ECL. Other banks are estimated to be flat to down 1% to 2%. If in line with expectations, first-nine-month profit for 2026 will be 194 billion baht, down 3.6% from a year earlier, accounting for 78% of the research house's full-year forecast and 76% of the BB Consensus. Group net interest income recovered 1.4% quarter on quarter, lifting NIM by 4 bps to 3.02%, while credit cost stood at 1.4%, down from 1.5% in the second quarter, and NPLs to loans are expected to be flat at 3.6%. The research house maintains a Neutral weighting, with KTB and then KBANK as its top strategic picks.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative Q3/2026 profit expected down 8.8% YoY due to high base of securities trading revenue, particularly at Bangkok Bank, though QoQ up 5% on lower OPEX and ECL.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Krungthai Bank leads QoQ growth at 7% on recovery in net interest income and trading revenue, and is Asia Plus's top strategic pick.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP is one of only three banks expected to post year-on-year profit increases in Q3/2026.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO is one of only three banks expected to post year-on-year profit increases in Q3/2026.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Neutral Named as Asia Plus's second top strategic pick after KTB, but no specific Q3 profit estimate given; other banks flat to down 1-2%.
TTB.BK · Capital · Positive TTB is among only three banks expected to post year-on-year profit increases in Q3/2026, per Asia Plus Securities.
Bnomics warns floods will drag down GDP, urges Thailand to shift to 'living with water'
Bnomics by Bangkok Bank released an analysis warning that flooding is not merely a problem of heavy rainfall, but reflects that cities cannot handle the water, with damage spreading to GDP and supply chains. It points out that Thailand must shift its mindset from 'draining water' to 'living with water.' The analysis cites a World Bank assessment that the great flood of 2011 caused damage and losses of approximately 1.43 trillion baht, or 12.6% of GDP. The report Thailand Economic Monitor: Coping with Floods and Droughts estimates that if in 2030 Thailand faces flooding at a level with roughly a one-in-50-year probability, similar to the 2011 event, production losses could exceed 10% of GDP, and could be even higher if supply chains cannot adapt well enough. Singapore once had about 32 square kilometres of flood-prone area in the 1970s, but after decades of continuous investment in upgrading its systems, that has now fallen to less than 0.25 square kilometres, a reduction of more than 99%. For Thailand, in the 2017–2026 fiscal years, the integrated water resource management plan was allocated a total budget of more than 600 billion baht, with the 2025 fiscal year at approximately 62,621 million baht and 2026 at approximately 63,421 million baht. This budget covers water for consumption and use, water for agriculture, drought response, water source rehabilitation, and flood prevention. The World Bank therefore proposes that Thailand use Cost-Benefit Analysis systematically to prioritise flood and drought response measures, alongside investment in infrastructure, early warning systems, and Nature-based Solutions.
BBL.BK · · Neutral Bangkok Bank's research arm Bnomics authored the flood analysis, but the article reports no direct financial impact on the bank itself.
Bangkok Bank to discontinue Bualuang iBanking service from 15 December 2026
Bangkok Bank has announced it will discontinue its internet banking service, Bualuang iBanking, from 15 December 2026 onwards. The bank sent an email to customers and posted an announcement on its website, citing certain limitations of the service that prevent it from fully developing new features and enhancing security, making it necessary to stop offering the service through this channel. It advised customers to switch to Bangkok Bank's mobile banking service, which is a more secure and more complete channel. For scheduled transaction services via Bualuang iBanking, the bank will discontinue the service from 1 November 2026 onwards, and scheduled transactions set to take effect from 15 December 2026 will be automatically cancelled. The bank advises customers to set up new scheduled transactions in the Bangkok Bank mobile banking app. Customers who have previously used the Bangkok Bank mobile banking app can log in again using their existing Mobile PIN, or use their debit card number and debit card PIN, or request a first-time access code at a bank branch or ATM. Customers who have never used the service can register in the same way, and if their information is not up to date, they must verify their identity at a bank branch before using the service, using a national ID card for Thai nationals or a passport for foreigners.
BBL.BK · Technology · Neutral Bangkok Bank is discontinuing its Bualuang iBanking service, citing limitations preventing new features and security enhancements, and directing customers to its mobile app.
Finansia Syrus sees SET sideways-down, picks BBL, DELTA, STA as October top stocks
Kanthara Ladawan Na Ayudhya, an executive director at Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, said the overall Thai stock market still faces short-term pressure, with the SET Index likely to move in a sideways-down pattern after falling more than 35 points earlier, and this is not yet the moment to aggressively add to positions. Key support sits at 1,561 points, while resistance is at 1,612-1,620 points. Over the longer term, the firm still targets the index above 1,700 points next year if a major positive catalyst emerges. External factors to watch include crude oil prices holding high around 102 dollars per barrel, which would add pressure on inflation and interest rates, as well as bond yields that may stay elevated for a prolonged period. The market prices only about a 25% chance that the Fed will raise rates at its October 2026 meeting, but as high as roughly 80% for the December 2026 meeting. On foreign fund flows, slight positive signals have emerged after foreign investors flipped back to long futures positions following seven consecutive days of short positions. For investment strategy, FSS recommends a wait-and-see approach and a focus on stock-specific selection. Its top picks for October are BBL, DELTA and STA, while PTTEP benefits from high oil prices. FSS sets a fundamental value of 290 baht for DELTA and 166 baht for PTTEP.
Government pushes ahead with national catastrophe insurance system, total premiums of 15.5 billion baht
The government is pushing ahead with a national catastrophe insurance system, with total premiums of 15.5 billion baht, covering approximately 30 million households. This breaks down into 15 billion baht for residential insurance and 500 million baht for group accident insurance. It marks a move to bring the public sector in as a major insurance buyer and significantly increases the total premium value generated, or premium pool, for the insurance industry. Coverage includes floods, windstorms, and earthquakes, up to 100,000 baht per event per household. In the case of death from an accident caused by a disaster, coverage is 2 million baht per person, and total permanent disability is 200,000 baht per person. Coverage begins on 1 October 2026 and runs to 1 October 2027. Companies directly linked to the scheme include Bangkok Insurance, Dhipaya Insurance, Muang Thai Insurance, and Thai Vivat Insurance. Meanwhile, KTB is indirectly linked through Krungthai Panich Insurance, and BBL has indirect exposure through its roughly 9.99% stake in BKIH. ASL Securities sees this as positive for the insurance sector in terms of premium growth and expanding insurance penetration, and recommends gradually accumulating TIPH, KTB, and BBL, with TIPH the standout stock benefiting directly from the catastrophe insurance theme.
TVH.BK · Demand · Positive Thai Vivat Insurance is named as a company directly linked to the national catastrophe insurance scheme, gaining premium growth from the 15.5 billion baht program.
MTI.BK · Demand · Positive Muang Thai Insurance is named as a company directly linked to the scheme, gaining from the 15.5 billion baht premium pool.
TIPH.BK · Demand · Positive Dhipaya Insurance is named as a company directly linked to the scheme, and TIPH is flagged as the standout direct beneficiary of the catastrophe insurance theme.
BKIH.BK · Demand · Positive BKI Holdings is indirectly linked to the national catastrophe insurance scheme via BBL's ~9.99% stake in BKIH, expanding the premium pool.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB is indirectly linked through Krungthai Panich Insurance, and ASL Securities recommends accumulating KTB on the catastrophe insurance theme.
BBL.BK · Demand · Positive BBL has indirect exposure to the catastrophe insurance scheme through its ~9.99% stake in BKIH, and ASL Securities recommends accumulating BBL on the theme.
Brokers expect Q3/2026 banking sector core profit to grow 5% to 42.9 billion baht
Bualuang Securities' Research team estimates that the combined core profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 will be 42.9 billion baht, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, higher than the third-quarter 2026 GDP estimate of 2.0% YoY. Two main factors support this: lower provisioning and growing fee income. For provisioning, the sector's average rate is expected at 1.30%, down 17bps YoY and 2bps QoQ, while the average non-performing loan ratio to total loans is expected to edge up slightly from 2.98% at the end of June 2026 to 3.00% at the end of September 2026. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to non-performing loans is expected at 204.1%, flat QoQ. Total net fee income is expected at 40.3 billion baht, up 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven mainly by the wealth management business, whose combined net asset value of bank-owned asset management companies stood at 7.8 trillion baht at the end of August 2026, up 4% since the start of the quarter and up 11% YoY. Securities brokerage fee income is likely to grow significantly both YoY and QoQ, from securities trading value expected to rise 64% YoY and 34% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026. Counting total net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026, it is expected at 55.2 billion baht, down 11% YoY and flat QoQ, due to lower average net interest margin and lower mark-to-market gains on financial instruments. Banks expected to post YoY core profit growth are KKP +73%, TISCO +23%, BBL +20%, KBANK +5% and TTB +4%, while KTB is expected to see core profit fall 11% YoY and SCB is expected to be flat YoY. For the fourth quarter of 2026, combined core profit is expected at 39.7 billion baht, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ, on higher operating expenses. For 2027, the banking sector's combined net profit is expected at 221 billion baht, up 1% YoY, supported by loan growth expected at 2% YoY and net fee income growth of 4% YoY, while average net interest margin has likely already passed its trough in the second quarter of 2026 after most loan and deposit rate adjustments were completed.
Bangkok Bank backs Sansiri Capital's acquisition of The Lake Como EDITION hotel
Bangkok Bank, or BBL, has provided loan financing to Sansiri Capital for the acquisition of The Lake Como EDITION, an ultra-luxury five-star hotel on the shores of Lake Como in Italy. The deal was underscored by the presence of Chartsiri Sophonpanich, President of Bangkok Bank, together with Chansak Fuangfu, Niramarn Laisathit, and Chanon Sophonpanich, Senior Executive Vice Presidents and Executive Vice Presidents of Bangkok Bank, alongside Srettha Thavisin, former Prime Minister and co-founder of Sansiri, Napat Thavisin, Managing Director of Sansiri Capital, and Wichan Wiriyaphusit, Chief Financial Officer of Sansiri, highlighting the strategic partnership between Bangkok Bank and Sansiri Capital, also known as the Sansiri Capital Trophy Fund. On this occasion, the bank stated that the move represents Sansiri Capital's expansion of its investment portfolio into overseas markets and reflects Bangkok Bank's role as a leading regional bank ready to support Thai entrepreneurs with financial services and business networks abroad.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Bangkok Bank provided loan financing to Sansiri Capital for the Lake Como EDITION hotel acquisition, expanding its lending portfolio.
Sansiri Capital Trophy Fund · Capital · Positive Sansiri Capital secured Bangkok Bank loan financing to acquire The Lake Como EDITION hotel, expanding its overseas investment portfolio.
แสนสิริแคปิตอล · Capital · Positive Sansiri Capital (แสนสิริแคปิตอล) received Bangkok Bank financing for the Lake Como EDITION acquisition, advancing its overseas expansion.
Three brokerages set SET targets for the final stretch of 2026, pick top Q4/2026 stocks
Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.
Asia Plus sets SET year-end 2026 target at 1,720 points, recommends 8 laggard stocks
Asia Plus Securities estimates the SET index target at the end of 2026 at 1,720 points, based on an assumption of 2026 earnings per share of 95 baht per share. It notes that the overall investment picture in the fourth quarter faces the risk of accelerating inflation from the Middle East war that has dragged on for more than 7 months, which pressured the average September 2026 WTI crude oil price to 95.6 dollars per barrel, up 50% compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, the United States is collecting import tariffs from trading partners at an effective rate as high as 12.5% to 19%, up from the previous 2% to 2.5%, and investment in data centers and AI infrastructure has pushed prices of software and computer equipment up 25.4% compared with the previous year, hitting a new high. On the Thai economy, the ratio of public debt to GDP stands at 67.45%, close to the fiscal discipline ceiling of 70%, while the impact of flooding is estimated at approximately 5 billion to 10 billion baht, which could drag third-quarter GDP growth down to 2.2% to 2.5%. The research department has adjusted its strategy from index selection to selective stock selection, focusing on stocks that benefit from the high season and the low base effect, namely CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON, and GUNKUL, and recommends holding cash at around 10% to 15% of the portfolio.
Bank stocks slump on fears flood-relief measures will pressure NIM; brokers recommend buying KBANK, KTB, KKP, TTB
Banking stocks fell sharply in trading on September 30, 2026, after the market worried that relief measures for customers affected by flooding would pressure net interest margins, or NIM. As of 11:04 a.m., KBANK stood at 232 baht, down 10 baht or 4.13%; KTB at 41 baht, down 2.25 baht or 5.20%; BBL at 185.50 baht, down 3.50 baht or 1.85%; SCB at 149.50 baht, down 3.50 baht or 2.29%; TTB at 2.92 baht, down 0.08 baht or 2.67%; and KKP at 109.50 baht, down 3 baht or 2.67%. KGI Securities (Thailand), or KGI, disclosed that several commercial banks have rolled out relief measures to help both retail loan customers and SME business loan customers, covering everything from a three-to-six-month suspension of interest payments, reduced principal repayments, lower monthly instalments, extended debt repayment periods, to special interest rates. For SME customers, most banks are offering extra help, such as additional working capital loans and special-rate loans of around 3.5%. Combined with assistance from state specialised financial institutions, or SFIs, this is expected to support borrowers nationwide comprehensively. KGI assesses that KTB will be hit hardest, as retail customers make up as much as 40% of its total loans, followed by SCB at 15%, then KBANK at 10%, and BBL at less than 10%. However, the research team views these measures as an opportunity for banks to accelerate debt restructuring, which would help ease pressure on bad-debt provisioning expenses. It forecasts bad-debt provisioning expenses in 2026 at 1.04% for KTB, 1.24% for BBL, 1.50% for KBANK, and 1.62% for SCB. It maintains an Overweight stance on the commercial banking sector even though these stocks have underperformed the SET Index recently, and it expects the floods will not significantly affect the overall economy or GDP growth. It sees the share price pullback as an opportunity to accumulate, and picks KBANK, KTB, KKP, and TTB as its top buy recommendations.
KTB.BK · Pricing · Negative KTB is assessed as hardest hit by flood-relief measures, with retail loans at 40% of its book, pressuring NIM.
BBL.BK · Pricing · Negative Flood-relief measures (interest suspensions, reduced repayments, special rates) are expected to pressure net interest margins, hitting BBL's lending profitability.
KBANK.BK · Pricing · Negative KBANK's participation in flood-relief measures, with retail loans at 10% of its book, is seen pressuring NIM.
SCB.BK · Pricing · Negative SCB's flood-relief measures, with retail loans at 15% of its book, are expected to pressure net interest margins.
TTB.BK · Pricing · Negative TTB shares fell as flood-relief measures (interest-payment suspensions, reduced instalments, special rates) are feared to pressure banks' net interest margins.
KKP.BK · Pricing · Negative KKP shares fell amid the sector-wide NIM pressure from flood-relief measures, though it is not singled out in KGI's exposure breakdown.
Broker says foreign investors sold 15 billion baht of Thai stocks, advises gradual accumulation of bank shares
Pi Securities reported that foreign investors continued to sell Thai stocks, with net selling totaling roughly 15 billion baht since the start of September, and heavy selling occurred yesterday when about 7 billion baht flowed out in a single day. One of the most heavily sold groups was banking, which along with energy and electronics has been one of the standout performers this year, prompting profit-taking in shares such as SCB, KBANK and BBL. KTB's price was less volatile because buying from Vayupak Fund helped support it. Part of the selling pressure stemmed from bank share prices that had risen very strongly earlier, combined with global market uncertainty including the U.S. debt problem, oil prices, inflation concerns and rising bond yields, as well as the direction of U.S. interest rates, where the market is increasingly seeing a chance of a hike, leading some investors to reduce risk and lock in profits first. The recent decline in the SET is therefore not too worrying, because both market fundamentals and domestic buying continue to help support it. As for the banking group, although it may still face profit-taking pressure in the short term and this quarter's earnings may not grow as strongly as before, the overall fundamental picture has not changed, especially the banks' still-strong financial positions, combined with high yield levels and dividend payouts early next year that will provide another supporting factor. Therefore, if bank share prices fall on foreign selling, it is still seen as an opportunity to gradually accumulate rather than to reduce exposure.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative BBL is among the banking group hit by foreign profit-taking selling after strong gains, with short-term earnings growth seen weaker.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Negative KBANK is one of the heavily sold bank shares as foreign investors locked in profits after strong earlier gains.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB is named among the banking shares subject to foreign profit-taking selling after very strong price gains.
KTB.BK · Capital · Neutral KTB saw less volatile selling pressure because Vayupak Fund buying supported it, though it still faces sector profit-taking and softer quarterly earnings.
Foreign investors net sold nearly 20 billion baht over 6 days but still accumulated SCB, PTT, TOP, IRPC, BBL
Research from Asia Plus Securities indicates that foreign investors net sold Thai stocks for six consecutive trading days, totaling nearly 20 billion baht, pressured by US bond yields rising faster than Thai yields, flooding issues and rising political temperature, as well as a baht that continues to weaken, which increases the chance of foreign exchange losses for foreign investors. However, foreign investors are still gradually accumulating certain companies, focusing on banks, energy, and some petrochemical stocks with strong stories and laggard prices. SCB led with net buying of 2.974 billion baht, followed by PTT at 1.361 billion baht, TOP at 882 million baht, IRPC at 627 million baht, and BBL at 517 million baht. Meanwhile, the research team also recommends three standout stocks: TRUE, on the trend of third-quarter 2026 profit growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with an expected dividend yield of about 1.2%; GULF, benefiting from positive sentiment from falling oil prices and the investment theme tied to the Power Development Plan and data centers; and PLANB, which is likely to raise its 2027 profit forecast on its share of investment in ICARE and its entry into the high season for the out-of-home advertising business in the second half of the year.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Foreign investors net bought BBL shares worth 517 million baht, cited among accumulated bank stocks.
IRPC.BK · Capital · Positive Foreign investors net bought IRPC shares worth 627 million baht, cited among accumulated petrochemical stocks.
PTT.BK · Capital · Positive Foreign investors net bought PTT shares worth 1.361 billion baht, cited among accumulated energy stocks.
SCB.BK · Capital · Positive Foreign investors net bought SCB shares worth 2.974 billion baht, the largest net accumulation among Thai stocks.
TOP.BK · Capital · Positive Foreign investors net bought TOP shares worth 882 million baht as part of accumulation in energy and petrochemical stocks.
GULF.BK · Demand · Positive GULF recommended as a standout, benefiting from falling oil prices and the Power Development Plan and data-center investment theme.
Kasikornbank highlights top stocks for Q4 2026, riding the upcycle with a SET target of 1,680 points
Analysts at Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited have unveiled their Thai equity investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting Thailand's investment upcycle, driven by data centre investment and the PDP26 plan, to support growth momentum from the fourth quarter of 2026 through 2027. They expect power generation capacity serving data centres to rise to 5–7GW by 2030, and have raised their SET index target to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 target based on a 2027 SET EPS of 105 points and a long-term average PE of 16 times. For the fourth quarter of 2026, they highlight two themes: stocks benefiting from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, and stocks with earnings recovery coupled with cost pass-through ability and room for prices to catch up, namely SCGP and CPALL. Meanwhile, analysts at InnovestX Securities have raised their 2026 SET target from 1,600 points to 1,700 points to reflect a stronger-than-expected second quarter of 2026, robust investment and economic stimulus measures, viewing 1,550 points as an attractive level for gradual accumulation, and selecting AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9 as their top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts at Trinity Securities see global stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2026 entering a tug-of-war between macro factors weighing on sentiment and micro factors still supporting the market. They estimate the SET index trading range at 1,500–1,700 points, with a base case of around 1,630 points calculated from a forward PE of 14.8 times multiplied by this year's EPS of 110 baht, and recommend a sector rotation and stock selection strategy across five favoured groups: livestock, BTG and TFG; tourism, AWC and ERW; retail with company-specific catalysts, CRC and COM7; agricultural products, STA and TVO; and beneficiaries of private-sector investment, AMATA and STECON.
AMATA.BK · Demand · Positive InnovestX selected AMATA as a top pick for Q4 2026, citing robust investment and economic stimulus measures.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities highlights BBL as a stock benefiting from the new investment cycle in Q4 2026.
BGRIM.BK · Demand · Positive Kasikorn Securities names BGRIM as a beneficiary of the new investment cycle driven by data centre investment and the PDP26 plan.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities highlights KTB as a top pick for Q4 2026, and InnovestX also selects KTB among its top picks.
PR9.BK · Capital · Positive InnovestX Securities selects PR9 as one of its top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026.
SCGP.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities highlights SCGP as a top pick for Q4 2026, citing earnings recovery and cost pass-through ability.
Krungsri Keeps Buy Rating on BBL with 225 Baht Target, Expects Q3/2026 Profit to Shrink 25%
Krungsri Securities maintains its buy recommendation on Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, or BBL, and keeps its 2027 target price at 225 baht, citing four supporting factors: the maintenance of a 5% dividend yield, its position as one of the banks benefiting from the new investment cycle, the end of the interest rate downtrend, and BBL's shares trading at the cheapest valuation among banks at a forward PBV of 0.6x. For Q3/2026F, net profit is expected at 10.3 billion baht, down 25% year-on-year due to lower NIM and reduced FVTPL and investment gains, while profit rises 8% quarter-on-quarter on lower operating expenses, or OPEX.
Pie Securities Says Surging US Yields Point to 11 Beneficiary Stocks
Pie Securities stated that pressure on the Thai stock market from flooding is believed to be over, but global conditions remain under pressure from the accelerating rise in US bond yields, which have repeatedly hit new record highs. US government bond yields rose across all maturities, driven by concerns over higher inflation in line with energy prices and investors demanding greater returns in light of US debt risks. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 70% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at its October meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 347 points, or 0.67%, overnight, pressured by oil prices and bond yields. Brent crude closed up 0.9% amid concerns over tight supply after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal. The research team estimates the SET index range at 1585 to 1610 points, advises increased caution, and recommends focusing on stocks that benefit psychologically from rising yields, namely the banking group BBL, KBANK, KTB, and SCB; the export group ITC and TU; the defensive group ADVANC; and the energy group PTT, PTTEP, TOP, and PTTGC. This morning the baht continues to weaken, which may pressure foreign capital flows.
Kasikorn Securities Sees Banks Shining in Q4, Picks KKP and KTB as Top Picks
Kasikorn Securities remains positive on the banking sector in the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting net interest margins to begin stabilising after pressure from falling interest rates eases. Loan growth is likely to improve on corporate lending and late-year seasonal factors. Credit cost is expected to decline gradually compared with the first half of 2026 as the need for management overlays diminishes, while fee income should accelerate on mutual fund and bancassurance sales during the tax-deduction season. Key risks to watch in the fourth quarter of 2026 are the high season for operating expenses and IT investment, which could pressure the cost-to-income ratio and short-term profits, while retail and SME lending is expected to recover only modestly, leaving asset-quality risk concentrated in SME and retail loans. On valuation, the brokerage maintains a positive view on the banking sector, selecting KKP and KTB as its top picks and BBL as an interesting laggard, with target prices of 206.00 baht for BBL, 153.00 baht for KKP and 48.00 baht for KTB.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive KKP is selected as a top pick by Kasikorn Securities with a 153.00 baht target price amid a positive sector outlook.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive KTB is selected as a top pick by Kasikorn Securities with a 48.00 baht target price amid a positive sector outlook.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities maintains a positive banking-sector view and names BBL an interesting laggard with a 206.00 baht target price.
PSL borrows 14.46 million dollars from Bangkok Bank's Singapore branch to refinance shareholder loans
Precious Shipping Public Company Limited, or PSL, has informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that on 21 September 2026, its wholly owned Singapore subsidiaries, Precious Fragrance Pte Ltd and Precious Thoughts Pte Ltd, as borrowers, signed secured long-term loan agreements with Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, or BBL, Singapore branch, for a total facility of 14.46 million US dollars, with PSL acting as guarantor. The total facility of 14.46 million US dollars is divided into two sub-facilities: a loan for the first vessel of 6.96 million US dollars and a loan for the second vessel of 7.50 million US dollars. The interest rate is based on USD SOFR plus a margin, and the drawdown period is within 12 months from the date of signing the agreements. The main purpose of the loans is to repay or refinance shareholder loans and/or to support the borrowers' operations. Under the repayment terms, each sub-facility will be repaid in a total of 32 installments, with the first installment due within 3 months after drawdown. The collateral consists of first-priority mortgages on two Handysize vessels, Benjamas Naree and Jintana Naree, as well as the assignment of insurance proceeds, claims, earnings and charter contracts with a term of 12 months or more, along with a pledge of the borrowers' shares. Meanwhile, the borrowers must maintain a minimum cash balance of 100,000 US dollars and a minimum debt service coverage ratio of 1.2 times. PSL, as guarantor, must maintain a net debt to total equity ratio of no more than 2 to 1 and total equity of not less than 225 million US dollars. In addition, PSL must maintain its status as a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, while the borrowers may not pay dividends or other returns to shareholders if an event of default occurs and remains unremedied.
Precious Fragrance Pte. Ltd. · Capital · Positive Precious Fragrance secures a $6.96M vessel loan to refinance shareholder loans and support operations.
Precious Thoughts Pte. Ltd. · Capital · Positive Precious Thoughts secures a $7.50M vessel loan to refinance shareholder loans and support operations.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Bangkok Bank's Singapore branch signs a $14.46M secured long-term loan facility, expanding its lending book.
Kasikorn Securities says flood statistics to pressure SET by about 1%, sees support at 1,565-1,580 points as opportunity to accumulate bank, power plant and electronics stocks
The analyst at Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited presented statistics on the impact of floods on the SET Index, noting that since 2006 flooding has occurred in Thailand more than 7 times, and the SET delivered negative returns of about 1% over a one-month period, except in 2011 when major flooding pushed the SET down 14%. The groups that outperformed were led by ICT and banks, while the finance and insurance groups fell about 2%. The electronics group fell the most, down 8%, most of which stemmed from 2011, because that flood round hit the industrial sector hard. On the economy, excluding 2011, the monthly impact was in the range of 10 to 50 billion baht, or an impact on GDP of no more than 0.1-0.3%. And if assessed from the upside of extending the half-half co-payment policy program by 2 months, it could put the GDP forecast in a range of 2.0% plus or minus. For investment strategy, Kasikorn Securities assesses the impact of this flood round on its 2026 EPS forecast as fairly limited, and estimates the SET support range at 1,565-1,580 points. It still views the decline as an opportunity to gradually accumulate bank, power plant and electronics stocks, namely KTB, BBL, DELTA and BGRIM.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Nuclear Generation & Utilities Demand
2308.TW · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities names DELTA among electronics stocks to accumulate on the flood-driven SET dip, viewing the decline as a buying opportunity.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities names BBL among bank stocks to accumulate on the flood-driven SET dip, viewing the decline as a buying opportunity.
BGRIM.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities names BGRIM among power plant stocks to accumulate on the flood-driven SET dip, viewing the decline as a buying opportunity.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities names KTB among bank stocks to accumulate on the flood-driven SET dip, viewing the decline as a buying opportunity.
Bangkok Bank, Krungthai, Siam Commercial, and ttb roll out debt-relief measures for flood-hit customers
Thailand's commercial banks, including Bangkok Bank, Krungthai Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, and ttb, are rushing out relief measures for customers affected by flooding in several areas of Bangkok and nearby provinces, covering retail customers, SMEs, and businesses through principal payment deferrals, reduced installments, lower interest rates, debt restructuring, and new loans for home repairs and business recovery. Each bank has set different conditions and timeframes depending on loan type and the level of impact. Bangkok Bank is granting business loan customers a temporary suspension of principal payments of up to 12 months and cutting monthly installments on home and personal loans by as much as 40% for a period of up to 6 to 12 months, along with SME business loans with terms of up to 5 years and a fixed interest rate starting at 3.5% per year for 2 years. Krungthai Bank is reducing installments on home loans and SSME business loans to 75% of current installments for 1 year, with 0% interest per year for 3 months and a fixed interest rate of 2.5% per year for 33 months, for a total special-rate period of 3 years. Siam Commercial Bank is allowing individual customers to defer principal payments for up to 3 months and SME customers for up to 6 months, while increasing temporary revolving credit lines by up to 20% of the existing limit but not exceeding 10 million baht. ttb is allowing home loan customers to defer principal payments for 3 months and is considering principal-free repayment of up to 6 months for business and SME customers. Customers interested in joining each bank's measures can register their interest until December 31, 2026.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative Bangkok Bank defers principal up to 12 months and cuts installments up to 40%, plus offers SME loans at 3.5%, pressuring its margins and cash flow.
KTB.BK · Capital · Negative Krungthai cuts home and SSME installments to 75% with 0% interest for 3 months and 2.5% fixed for 33 months, reducing interest income.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB X's Siam Commercial Bank allows principal deferrals and raises temporary credit lines, weighing on its loan book and earnings.
TTB.BK · Capital · Negative ttb defers home loan principal for 3 months and considers up to 6 months principal-free for business/SME customers, hurting its interest income.
Krungsri Securities said the Thai stock market between 21 and 24 September 2026 moved above the 1,600-point level, supported by positive expectations that the US leader will meet the Chinese leader on 24-25 September, which boosts the prospect of further trade easing. Meanwhile, the electronics group gained positive momentum from AI after President Trump confirmed that the US will continue developing AI despite safety concerns, together with a boost from META's new AI that is helping accelerate demand. The refinery and petrochemical group, such as TOP, SPRC and PTTGC, rose on news that the US is preparing to ban or halt diesel exports, which if implemented would tighten diesel supply in the market and push refining margins higher. The banking group, such as KBANK and BBL, also rose on positive sentiment, supported by news that Fitch Ratings raised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness to Stable while keeping the credit rating at BBB+. The groups that fell more sharply than others included retail, such as CRC and CPALL, which faced negative sentiment from the Cabinet resolution extending the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measure, and exporters such as CPF, whose share price fell in line with Chinese hog prices, which dropped 1.8% week-on-week to RMB 10.64 per kg, or 53.00 baht per kg, from a cost of RMB 13.50 per kg, because of oversupply. Meanwhile, Thai hog prices were flat week-on-week at 75.50 baht per kg, against a cost of 60.00 baht per kg. Market earnings for 2026F stood at 110.9 baht, up slightly week-on-week, with the groups whose estimates were revised up being petrochemicals and packaging, while the groups revised down were agriculture and property. Last week, capital flowed out of Asia excluding Japan by a total of 1.661 billion dollars, with Thailand seeing an outflow of 95 million dollars, split into net stock sales of 107.5 million dollars and net bond buying of 12 million dollars. The baht was flat at 33.3 baht.
PTTGC.BK · Supply · Positive PTTGC rose with the refinery/petrochemical group on news the US may ban diesel exports, tightening diesel supply and lifting refining margins.
SPRC.BK · Supply · Positive SPRC rose on the potential US diesel export ban, which would tighten diesel supply and push refining margins higher.
TOP.BK · Supply · Positive TOP rose on the news that the US is preparing to ban or halt diesel exports, tightening supply and boosting refining margins.
CPF.BK · Supply · Negative CPF fell in line with Chinese hog prices dropping 1.8% w/w to RMB 10.64/kg due to oversupply.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive BBL rose on positive sentiment after Fitch raised Thailand's credit outlook to Stable while affirming BBB+.
CPALL.BK · Regulation · Negative CPALL faced negative sentiment from the Cabinet resolution extending the Thai Chuay Thai Plus measure.
InnovestX Says Fitch's Upgrade of Thailand to Stable Boosts Fund Flows, Highlights 14 Top Picks
InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock market is starting to gain supportive themes after Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Thailand's creditworthiness from Negative to Stable, while affirming the sovereign rating at BBB+. As a result, Fitch Ratings, Moody's Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings all now hold a Stable outlook on Thailand. Fitch views the improved government stability as reducing political uncertainty, and expects Thailand's economy to expand 2.3% in 2026, close to 2.4% in 2025, supported by investment in AI and data centers as well as consumption stimulus measures. It also expects general government debt to stay below 63% of GDP in fiscal 2028, an improvement from the previous estimate of 65%. On the external front, Fitch sees Thailand's position as still strong, expecting the current account to post a temporary deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2026 before returning to a surplus of 1.5% in 2027. InnovestX sees this as positive for the Thai stock market, particularly in spurring foreign capital to flow back into big-cap stocks, commercial banks such as Bangkok Bank, KTB, and Kasikornbank, and in lowering the financial costs of listed companies, especially the finance group such as Muangthai Capital, Srisawad, and TIDLOR, as well as attracting long-term investment into future industries, including industrial estates such as Amata and WHA, power plants such as Gulf, GPSC, BGRIM, and Gunkul, and electronics components such as Hana and KCE, for a total of 14 top picks. However, it views that although the Fitch news is positive, it may support the market only in the short term, given lingering external negatives including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as volatility from global trade policy. It therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy, waiting to accumulate rather than chasing prices.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive Fitch's outlook upgrade to Stable is expected to spur foreign capital flows back into Thai big-cap commercial banks like Bangkok Bank.
GPSC.BK · Monetary · Positive Named among InnovestX's top picks as a power plant benefiting from long-term investment inflows after the Fitch upgrade.
GULF.BK · Monetary · Positive Named among InnovestX's top picks as a power plant attracting long-term investment after Thailand's credit outlook upgrade.
HANA.BK · Monetary · Positive Named among InnovestX's top picks in electronics components expected to draw long-term investment following the Fitch upgrade.
KCE.BK · Monetary · Positive Named among InnovestX's top picks in electronics components expected to attract long-term investment after the Fitch upgrade.
WHA.BK · Capital · Positive Fitch's outlook upgrade to Stable is expected to spur foreign capital inflows and long-term investment into industrial estates like WHA.
Kanthara Says US Roadshow Supports Fund Flow Returning to Thailand, Recommends Banks, Exporters, Energy
Kanthara Ladawan na Ayudhya, an executive director of Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, disclosed that the roadshow in the United States, meetings with foreign institutional investors, and cooperation between Thai capital market agencies and the New York Stock Exchange are positive factors helping foreign investors pay more attention to Thailand, and may mark the beginning of drawing foreign capital flows, or Fund Flow, back into the Thai stock market after a period of heavy outflows. The signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Thai capital market and the New York Stock Exchange on the listing of securities in more than one market, or Dual Listing, is an important development that will help increase liquidity and raise the standards of the Thai capital market. For short-term strategy, Kanthara views that the market remains highly volatile due to US government bond yields rising to around 5.25% and oil prices that remain high. He recommends monitoring Brent crude oil at around 102 dollars per barrel; if it can hold above this level, prices may continue to rise, but for concerns to ease, prices should fall to around 91 to 93 dollars per barrel. He also recommends gradually accumulating PTT Public Company Limited, or PTT, and PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, or PTTEP, when oil prices weaken, and holds a positive view on commercial banks, giving a fair value for Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, or BBL, at 240 baht. As for the earnings outlook for the third quarter of 2026, he views that commercial banks remain continuously strong, while the export sector is interesting, especially Thai Union Group Public Company Limited, or TU, and I-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited, or ITC. Meanwhile, the hospital sector has an opportunity to recover seasonally, with attention on Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited, or PR9, and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited, or BDMS. He assesses that the Thai stock market is still more suitable for short-term trading than for chasing prices, with a key resistance level around 1,612 to 1,620 points, and that a strong break above this level would require new positive factors to support it.
Phillip expects BBL's Q3 2026 profit to plunge 31.9%, but keeps target price at 218 baht with a buy rating
Phillip Securities (Thailand) estimates that Bangkok Bank, or BBL, will post net profit of approximately 9.4 billion baht in the third quarter of 2026, down 31.9% from the same period a year earlier and down 1.2% from the previous quarter. The main pressures come from lower interest income after cuts to loan rates, as well as lower gains from financial instruments, while interest costs and expenses are trending higher. However, the research team expects net profit for the first nine months of 2026 to come in at 25.1 billion baht, up 2% from the same period a year earlier, driven by growing fee income and lower expenses. On lending, BBL's loans in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to contract 2% from the previous quarter, leaving loan growth from the end of 2025 at just 0.6% year-to-date. Non-performing loans are likely to rise further from the 3.3% level seen in the second quarter of 2026. For 2026, the research team maintains its net profit forecast for BBL at 42 billion baht, down 8.5% from the same period a year earlier, and keeps its target price at 218 baht with a buy rating, viewing the current share price as still having considerable upside to the target.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative Phillip Securities estimates BBL's Q3 2026 net profit will plunge 31.9% year-on-year on lower interest income and weaker financial-instrument gains.
Brokerage Expects BBL's Q3 2026 Profit to Fall to 9.4 Billion Baht, Down 31.9%
Analysts at Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited expect BBL to report a third-quarter 2026 profit of 9.4 billion baht, down 31.9% from the same period a year earlier, on lower interest income following cuts to lending rates and reduced gains from financial instruments. Profit is expected to fall 1.2% from the previous quarter on higher interest costs and expenses. For the nine-month period of 2026, profit is expected to come in at 25.1 billion baht, up 2% from the same period a year earlier, helped by higher fee income and lower expenses. BBL's loans in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to contract 2% from the previous quarter, leaving loan growth at 0.6% compared with the end of 2025, and non-performing loans may rise further from the 3.3% recorded in the second quarter of 2026. The brokerage maintains its 2026 profit forecast for BBL at 42 billion baht, down 8.5% from a year earlier, and with the current share price still holding a reasonable gap below the base price of 218 baht, it continues to recommend a Buy.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative Phillip Securities expects BBL's Q3 2026 profit to fall 31.9% YoY on lower interest income and reduced gains from financial instruments.
BBL Extends Green Loan to Support AP's Development of Three Apitown Projects
Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, or BBL, announced that it has provided a green loan for sustainability to AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited, or AP, for the development of residential projects under the Thailand Taxonomy, the classification standard for environmentally friendly economic activities. This collaboration covers three Apitown projects: Apitown Chachoengsao 2, Apitown Chanthaburi, and Apitown Buriram. Niramarn Laisathit, Senior Executive Vice President, together with Phannda Vilayalai, Senior Vice President of Bangkok Bank, stated that the projects aim to build energy-saving homes through designs that align with wind direction and natural light, and by selecting materials that help reduce heat inside the home, as well as preparing infrastructure to support clean energy technologies such as electric vehicle charging points, in order to reduce energy use and expenses while creating an environment conducive to the long-term well-being of residents.
TTB Wealth: US bond yield surge to 5.11% boosts five bank and insurance stocks
TTB Wealth Securities said the 10-year US bond yield has climbed to 5.11%, the highest in 20 years, after several Fed board members voiced support for further rate hikes to curb inflation, amid rising oil prices and a still-strong US economy and labor market. It views this as positive for the banking and insurance sectors, including KTB, KBANK, BBL, TLI and BLA. Meanwhile, statistically, the groups that tend to outperform in a rising bond yield environment include AMATA, WHA, DELTA, AOT, CENTEL, CPN and PR9.
Sansiri Accelerates Title Transfers Worth 18.3 Billion Baht, Pushing Recurring Income to 25%
Sansiri Public Company Limited, or SIRI, is proceeding with the gradual transfer of ownership for six completed projects with a combined value of 18.3 billion baht in the second half of 2026, supporting continued operational growth from the first half. Mr. Uthai Uthaisangsuk, Chief Executive Officer, stated that the projects being gradually transferred include dCondo Khiri, Via Ari, The Base Ratchada 19, Chuch Ratchathewi, and The Standard Residences Hua Hin. The company has also partnered with leading financial institutions SCB, KBANK, KTB, and BBL to help real demand customers plan loans and improve credit, increasing the chances of successful ownership transfers. On revenue structure diversification, the company aims to raise the proportion of recurring income from its services and hotel businesses from approximately 15% of total revenue at present to 25% within three to five years. Meanwhile, analysts at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited maintain a buy recommendation with a fair value of 1.90 baht, noting that accumulated sales since the start of the year stand at 27.9 billion baht, or 68% of the 2026 sales target of 41.0 billion baht, and expect the residential business gross margin in the second half to recover from 26.4% in the first half, driven by high-margin condominiums in the backlog being gradually transferred.
UOB Kay Hian expects banking sector Q3 2026 profit at 64 billion baht, down 10%
UOB Kay Hian Securities estimates the combined net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 at approximately 64 billion baht, down 10% from the same period last year. Of this total, BBL is expected to post a profit of 10.535 billion baht, up 10.9% quarter-on-quarter but down 23.6% year-on-year, while KBANK is expected at 12.203 billion baht, down 7.9% quarter-on-quarter and 6.2% year-on-year. KTB is expected to earn 12.121 billion baht, roughly flat versus the previous quarter but down 17.1% year-on-year. The key issue the market is watching is credit cost, which is expected to fall to 1.31% from 1.60% in the third quarter of 2025 and 1.43% in the second quarter of 2026, after several banks set aside special provisions early in the year to cover risks from tensions in the Middle East, though the actual impact in the first half was less severe than feared. Meanwhile, the sector's NPL ratio is expected to hold steady at around 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026. InnovestX Securities and Krungsri Securities both assign an Overweight rating to the banking sector, with KTB as their top pick, while Krungsri Securities names KBANK and KTB as its top picks.
Bualuang: loans at 7 banks flat MoM at end-August, up 3.4% YoY
Bualuang Securities reported that the combined loans of the seven banks it tracks stood at 10.9 trillion baht at the end of August, flat month-on-month and up 3.4% year-on-year. The increase was led by KTB, up 0.3% on government-sector lending; TISCO, up 0.3% on business and SME loans; TTB, up 0.2%; and KBANK, up 0.2% on business loans. Meanwhile, BBL fell 0.7%, KKP dropped 0.6%, and SCB slipped 0.1%. Total deposits rose 0.5% to 13.2 trillion baht, led by TISCO, TTB, and KTB. Combined loans at the end of September are expected to remain flat as banks stay strict on loan approvals amid a slowing economy, though full-year 2026 loans could come in about 1–2% above the previous assumption, with KBANK, KKP, and KTB likely to exceed estimates by 1–2%, while TTB faces a similar degree of downside risk. On earnings for July–August, TTB and TISCO look set to stand out year-on-year, with TTB up 11%, TISCO up 9%, KBANK up 7%, KKP up 6%, and KTB up 2%, while SCB was flat and BBL fell 19%. Bualuang Securities maintained an equal-weight stance on the banking sector, seeing early signs of improvement in loans and the potential for clearer momentum in the fourth quarter of 2026.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative BBL's loans fell 0.7% MoM and July-August earnings dropped 19% YoY, the weakest among the tracked banks.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive KBANK's loans rose 0.2% on business loans, July-August earnings up 7%, and full-year 2026 loans likely to exceed estimates by 1-2%.
KKP.BK · Capital · Neutral KKP's loans dropped 0.6% MoM but July-August earnings rose 6% and 2026 loans may exceed estimates by 1-2%.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive KTB led loan growth at 0.3% on government-sector lending, deposits rose, and 2026 loans likely to exceed estimates by 1-2%.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative SCB's loans slipped 0.1% MoM and July-August earnings were flat, lagging peers.
TISCO.BK · Capital · Positive TISCO's loans rose 0.3% on business and SME loans, deposits led the increase, and July-August earnings are set to rise 9% YoY.
Yuanta Securities expects US midterm elections to pressure SET, sees volatility, highlights 6 stocks to weather the storm
Yuanta Securities assesses that this round of US midterm elections is likely to increase short-term volatility in the stock market, with the current environment bearing some resemblance to 2018, when the S&P 500 declined in the one month before the election amid pressure from trade tensions and the Fed's rising interest rate cycle. The key pressures this time come from the Iran war, the Fed's return to rate hikes, and political uncertainty ahead of the election. The difference from 2018 is the direction of Fed monetary policy, which, although returning to rate hikes again, is still less restrictive this cycle, and the latest Dot Plot suggests that further rate increases are likely limited. At the same time, the decision to raise rates this round also helps reinforce confidence in the Fed's independence and reduces the Policy Risk Premium somewhat. The research team assesses that although the market still faces the risk of a correction before or during the Midterm Election, the downside may be more limited than in 2018 due to reduced monetary policy pressure. Top Picks include JPMUS19, NVDA19, AMZN19, META80, and NBIS80. On the Thai stock side, they include GULF, GUNKUL, SSP, MINT, SCB, and BBL.
Fitch Revises Credit Outlook for 5 Thai Banks EXIM, KTB, TTB, SCBT and UOBT to Stable
Fitch Ratings (Thailand) Limited has revised the outlook on the long-term foreign-currency international credit ratings, or Long-Term IDRs, of five Thai banks, namely EXIM, KTB, TTB, SCBT and UOBT, to "Stable" from "Negative," while keeping the credit outlook for BBL at "Stable." The ratings that were affirmed are EXIM and KTB at BBB+, TTB and BBL at BBB, and SCBT and UOBT at A-. Fitch also affirmed the government support ratings for EXIM, KTB, TTB and BBL, and affirmed the shareholder support ratings for SCBT and UOBT. For BBL, Fitch kept its Viability Rating, or VR, unchanged and revised the outlook on its funding and liquidity factor score to "Stable" from "Negative." This outlook revision follows the upgrade of Thailand's sovereign credit outlook to "Stable," which reflects the government's capacity to provide extraordinary support to the banking group, which remains strong, amid domestic economic conditions recovering better than previously assessed. On subsidiaries, Fitch revised the credit outlook for KTB's Cayman Islands branch to "Stable" from "Negative," keeping its rating at BBB+ in line with the parent bank. Factors that would positively affect the ratings in the future include an upgrade of Thailand's sovereign rating, which would lead to an upgrade of government support and the long-term credit ratings of the banking group, though the chance of a near-term upgrade may still be limited. Risks that could lead to a downgrade include a downgrade of the sovereign rating or an economic recession significantly worse than expected.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Fitch kept BBL's outlook at Stable and revised its funding and liquidity factor score outlook to Stable from Negative.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Fitch revised KTB's long-term credit outlook to Stable from Negative and affirmed its BBB+ rating and government support rating.
TTB.BK · Capital · Positive Fitch revised TTB's long-term credit outlook to Stable from Negative and affirmed its BBB rating and government support rating.
ALLY opens subscription for capital-increase trust units from 28 September to 2 October, maximum price 4.75 baht
The Alternative Real Estate Investment Trust, or ALLY, is preparing to issue and offer no more than 151,500,000 additional trust units with a par value of 9.7996 baht per unit as of 30 June 2026, representing a fundraising value of no more than 757.5 million baht, at a maximum offering price of no more than 4.75 baht per unit. Mr. Kawin Iamsakulrat, Chief Executive Officer of Allie REIT Management Company Limited, as the trust manager, stated that existing trust unitholders whose names appear in the register on the eligibility record date of 15 September 2026 will receive pre-emptive subscription rights in proportion to their existing holdings, at a ratio of 1 existing trust unit to 0.1386 new trust units, amounting to no more than 121,200,000 units, or approximately 80% of the total offering. The remaining approximately 30,300,000 units will be offered to specific investors and/or the general public at the same price. The trust will invest in three new projects, namely Charn at The Avenue Chaengwattana, Sai Mai Avenue, and The Zone Town in Town, with a combined value of no more than 1.4958 billion baht, which is more than 12% below the combined lowest appraisal value of independent property valuers. The distribution yield in the first year after investment is expected to be around 10% per year, based on the maximum offering price of 4.75 baht per unit, and this investment will expand the portfolio to 18 projects with total asset value reaching 15.151 billion baht. For subscriptions, general investors and institutional investors that do not submit bookbuilding forms may subscribe at the maximum offering price between 28 September and 2 October 2026 through Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited at all branches nationwide, except micro branches, through the Bangkok Bank Mobile Banking online system, and through all trust unit co-distributors. Institutional investors that submit bookbuilding forms, along with KE Group, will subscribe at the final offering price, which will be announced by 2 October 2026, between 5 and 6 October 2026. Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited is the distribution manager, together with five co-distributors: Asia Plus Securities Company Limited, Dao Thailand Securities Public Company Limited, Maybank Thailand Securities Public Company Limited, Tisco Securities Company Limited, and Yuan Ta Thailand Securities Company Limited, distributing on a best-effort basis. If the final offering price is lower than the maximum offering price, the difference in subscription payment will be refunded to investors as specified in the prospectus.
KGI says three big banks KTB, KBANK and BBL to benefit as loans recover alongside private investment
KGI Securities (Thailand) says large corporate loans grew strongly in August 2026, with short-term money market loans and interbank lending rising sharply at every bank except Siam Commercial Bank, which shifted its excess liquidity into bond investments instead. Overall money market loans grew 14% month on month, with BBL and KBANK posting the strongest growth among the large banks at about 18% month on month each, followed by TTB at 14% month on month and KTB at 13% month on month, while KKP recorded growth of as much as 36% month on month. Retail loans declined broadly, with only KTB lending aggressively, as most banks applied cautious lending criteria, including for housing loans and hire purchase loans, with SCB and TTB seeing their hire purchase loan portfolios contract because of stricter standards on electric vehicles. KTB, however, appears to have a more aggressive policy on housing and retail lending, which should be positive for its net interest margin, while total loans and money market lending grew 1.4% month on month compared with deposits at 0.5% month on month. KGI says growth in private investment accelerated in August, in line with the recovery in lending, and large banks should be the main beneficiaries, with KTB, KBANK and BBL standing out the most, while the momentum in private investment could drive full-year loan growth about 2% above the banks' financial targets.
BBL.BK · Demand · Positive BBL posted strongest money-market loan growth (~18% MoM) and is named among large banks benefiting from recovering private investment and lending.
KBANK.BK · Demand · Positive KBANK posted strongest money-market loan growth (~18% MoM) and is named among large banks benefiting from recovering private investment and lending.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB is named among top beneficiaries, grew money-market loans 13% MoM, and its aggressive housing/retail lending should lift net interest margin.
KKP.BK · Demand · Positive KKP recorded the highest money-market loan growth at 36% MoM, benefiting from the lending recovery.
TTB.BK · Demand · Positive TTB's money market loans grew 14% month on month, benefiting from the recovery in private investment and corporate lending.
SCB.BK · Demand · Neutral SCB shifted excess liquidity into bonds instead of money-market lending and saw hire-purchase loans contract on stricter EV standards, offsetting the sector recovery.
Krungsri says Thailand's signing of AHKIA opens the way for Hong Kong capital, boosting industrial estates and banks
Krungsri Securities said Thailand has signed the ASEAN-Hong Kong Investment Agreement, or AHKIA, to open up investment markets between the two sides and attract investment from Hong Kong in high-potential target industries, focusing on automobiles, auto parts, and printed circuit boards, or PCB. In addition, the agreement will help promote supply chain connectivity and give Thai investors the opportunity to expand their businesses into Hong Kong to connect with the Chinese market. The research team assesses that sentiment toward the SET is positive given the continued approach of drawing foreign investment. Stocks that benefit from the investment theme include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, as well as banks KBANK, KTB, KKP, and BBL.
AMATA.BK · Demand · Positive AHKIA opens Hong Kong investment into Thai industrial estates, benefiting AMATA as a named beneficiary.
BBL.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a bank benefiting from the foreign investment theme driven by AHKIA.
KBANK.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a bank benefiting from the foreign investment theme driven by AHKIA.
KKP.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a bank benefiting from the foreign investment theme driven by AHKIA.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a bank benefiting from the foreign investment theme driven by AHKIA.
WHA.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a beneficiary industrial estate from Hong Kong investment inflows under AHKIA targeting autos, auto parts, and PCB.
Kasikorn Thai Securities Backs New Investment Cycle, Sets SET Target at 1,680 Points, Recommends 5 Standout Stocks for the Fourth Quarter
Kasikorn Thai Securities said in a Thai equity strategy analysis for the fourth quarter of 2026 that Thailand is entering a new upward investment cycle, driven by data center investment and the new Power Development Plan, or PDP2026. It raised its target for the Stock Exchange of Thailand index to 1,680 points, shifting the calculation base to an end-2027 index target under the assumption of market earnings per share of 105 points in 2027 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times, which is in line with the long-term average. Kasikorn Thai Securities expects electricity generating capacity serving data center demand in Thailand to rise to roughly 5 to 7 gigawatts by 2030, following the expansion of data center operators and investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. For its fourth-quarter 2026 investment strategy, Kasikorn Thai Securities divided its approach into two main themes and selected five standout stocks: BBL, DELTA, BGRIM, SCGP and CPALL. The first theme covers stocks that benefit from the new investment cycle, namely BBL, DELTA and BGRIM, while the second focuses on stocks whose earnings are likely to recover and which can pass on costs, namely SCGP and CPALL.
Artificial Intelligence › AI Power & Cooling ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▲Demand
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Thai Securities names BBL among its five standout Q4 2026 picks as a beneficiary of the new investment cycle.
BGRIM.BK · Demand · Positive BGRIM is selected as a standout stock benefiting from the new investment cycle and rising data-center power demand under PDP2026.
CPALL.BK · Capital · Positive CPALL is named a standout Q4 pick in the earnings-recovery theme with ability to pass on costs.
DELTA.BK · Demand · Positive DELTA is chosen as a standout beneficiary of the new investment cycle driven by data-center and AI infrastructure expansion.
SCGP.BK · Capital · Positive SCGP is named a standout Q4 pick in the earnings-recovery theme with cost pass-through ability.
Foreign investors buy Thai stocks net 52.682 billion baht, boosted by fund flows and Meta's new AI model
Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.
META · Technology · Positive Meta launched a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, expected to extend its advertising business and accelerate AI capex demand.
DELTA.BK · Demand · Positive Meta's new free AI model expected to accelerate AI CAPEX demand, benefiting Thai component stocks especially DELTA.
HANA.BK · Demand · Positive Meta's new free AI model is expected to accelerate AI CAPEX demand, benefiting Thai component stocks especially HANA.
AMATA.BK · Regulation · Positive NBTC's proposed data center board criteria (power purchase agreements, domestic materials, sustainability) is expected to boost industrial estate stocks like AMATA.
CBG.BK · Demand · Positive Cabinet's Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 extension and welfare-card credit injection expected to benefit consumer goods stocks like CBG.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive Stimulus measures expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPALL.
NBTC Proposes New Data Center Investment Criteria, Boosting Infra Tech, Industrial Estate, Power, Banking and Construction Stocks
Krungsri Securities reported that the setting of new Data Center investment criteria is making continuous progress. Most recently, the NBTC proposed to the Data Center Board three key conditions: operators must have adequate utilities, meaning they must have power purchase agreements, or PPAs, and sufficient water supply service certifications; they must use domestically produced structural materials, construction work and electrical systems at a proportion of no less than 50% to support Thai industry; and a sustainability requirement, or Go Green, must be added, requiring operators to have guidelines to reduce environmental impact, cut carbon emissions and have electronic waste management plans. The research department assesses that this rapid and clear adjustment of the criteria is positive for Thailand's economic direction in the period ahead, and the Local Content condition will help circulate Data Center investment money into other industries. Stocks expected to gain positive sentiment include Infra Tech theme stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power group stocks GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, banking group stocks KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, and construction group stocks STECON, PYLON and INSET.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Grid, Transmission & Power Equipment ▲Demand
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Nuclear Generation & Utilities ▲Demand
AMATA.BK · Regulation · Positive NBTC's new Data Center investment criteria, including local content requirements, are expected to boost industrial estate stocks like AMATA.
STECON.BK · Demand · Positive NBTC's Local Content condition requiring at least 50% domestic construction work is expected to boost construction group stocks including STECON.
WHA.BK · Demand · Positive New Data Center investment criteria are expected to bring positive sentiment to Infra Tech theme stocks such as WHA.
BBL.BK · Regulation · Positive New Data Center investment criteria are seen as positive for banking group stocks including BBL.
BGRIM.BK · Regulation · Positive New Data Center investment criteria, requiring power purchase agreements, are positive for power group stocks like BGRIM.
GULF.BK · Regulation · Positive New Data Center investment criteria, requiring power purchase agreements, are positive for power group stocks like GULF.