Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Public Company Limited

Pie Securities maintains its Buy recommendation on KKP shares and raises its fair value to 130 baht, valuing the stock using the Gordon Growth Model at a 12% ROE and 2% terminal growth, based on 1.55x PBV for 2026. The research team expects third-quarter 2026 net profit of 2 billion baht, up 19% year on year but down 6% quarter on quarter, supported by the wealth management business and a NIM holding steady at a high 4%. The NPL ratio held steady at 3.5% and the coverage ratio at 149.5%. For the full-year 2026 outlook, net profit is expected to grow a strong 35% year on year, followed by continued growth of 4.5% year on year in 2027. This should push ROE up to 12.1% in 2026 and 12.3% in 2027, from 9.3% in 2025. The dividend yield is expected to be high at 6.3% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027, after an interim dividend of 3.25 baht in the first half of 2026, with another 3.82 baht expected in the second half.

InnovestX Securities estimates that the banking group's net profit for the third quarter of 2026 will rise 3% QoQ but fall 8% YoY, with this quarter marking the starting point for net interest income to return to QoQ growth, supported by a slight improvement in NIM, even as loan growth remains low. KTB is expected to post the strongest QoQ profit growth in the group at 16%, driven by higher FVTPL gains from its investment in THAI, while KKP is expected to post the strongest YoY growth at 23%, supported by non-interest income boosted by capital market-related revenue. The research team maintains a positive view on large banks, selecting BBL, KTB and KBANK as the group's top picks to benefit from the start of Thailand's investment cycle, which is expected to help the banking group's loans gradually improve from 3% in 2026F to 4% in 2027F and keep group profits flat in 2026F before recovering to 6% growth in 2027F. It also assesses dividend yields as attractive at 4-7%, given the banks' large excess Tier 1 capital.

Bualuang Securities' Research team estimates that the combined core profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026 will be 42.9 billion baht, up 5% YoY and 7% QoQ, higher than the third-quarter 2026 GDP estimate of 2.0% YoY. Two main factors support this: lower provisioning and growing fee income. For provisioning, the sector's average rate is expected at 1.30%, down 17bps YoY and 2bps QoQ, while the average non-performing loan ratio to total loans is expected to edge up slightly from 2.98% at the end of June 2026 to 3.00% at the end of September 2026. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to non-performing loans is expected at 204.1%, flat QoQ. Total net fee income is expected at 40.3 billion baht, up 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, driven mainly by the wealth management business, whose combined net asset value of bank-owned asset management companies stood at 7.8 trillion baht at the end of August 2026, up 4% since the start of the quarter and up 11% YoY. Securities brokerage fee income is likely to grow significantly both YoY and QoQ, from securities trading value expected to rise 64% YoY and 34% QoQ in the third quarter of 2026. Counting total net profit of the banking sector in the third quarter of 2026, it is expected at 55.2 billion baht, down 11% YoY and flat QoQ, due to lower average net interest margin and lower mark-to-market gains on financial instruments. Banks expected to post YoY core profit growth are KKP +73%, TISCO +23%, BBL +20%, KBANK +5% and TTB +4%, while KTB is expected to see core profit fall 11% YoY and SCB is expected to be flat YoY. For the fourth quarter of 2026, combined core profit is expected at 39.7 billion baht, up 10% YoY but down 8% QoQ, on higher operating expenses. For 2027, the banking sector's combined net profit is expected at 221 billion baht, up 1% YoY, supported by loan growth expected at 2% YoY and net fee income growth of 4% YoY, while average net interest margin has likely already passed its trough in the second quarter of 2026 after most loan and deposit rate adjustments were completed.

The Investment Analysts Association, or IAA, estimates that the SET Index in the fourth quarter of 2026 will move within a range of 1,537 to 1,683 points and is expected to close the year 2026 at 1,680 points. Sombut Naravuttichai, secretary-general of the association, said the survey of analysts and fund managers from 25 companies has not yet incorporated the impact of the flood situation, and puts the SET Index target for the end of 2027 at 1,727 points. It also forecasts average market EPS of 103.38 baht for 2026 and 104.29 baht for 2027, representing average EPS growth of 16.41% in 2026. Five stocks are recommended by four or more research houses in agreement: BDMS, KBANK, DELTA, GULF and CRC. The association recommends increasing weighting in tourism, healthcare, banking, power plants, utilities, commerce and electronics, while most analysts advise avoiding energy and petrochemical stocks, airlines and property. Wichit Arayapisit, senior director of the securities analysis department at Kasikorn Securities, said the firm has raised its SET Index target for the end of 2027 to 1,680 points from 1,620 points, and estimates EPS this year at 110 baht per share, while next year it is expected to fall about 5% to 105 baht per share. It recommends a defensive strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, favouring electronics such as DELTA, KCE and HANA, power plants such as GULF and GPSC, banks such as KTB and KKP, and hotels and tourism such as CENTEL and AWC.

Wichit Arayapisit, Senior Director of the Securities Analysis Department at Kasikorn Securities, said that bank stocks, which had previously risen on the dividend theme until their short-term valuation reached an unattractive zone at a PBV of close to 1 time, have now pulled back on flood concerns, opening an upside opportunity for a new round of investment, especially if PBV falls into the 0.7 to 0.8 times zone. Among the standout stocks worth accumulating in this group is KTB, driven by growth that tracks the country's investment cycle, offering a high dividend yield and third- and fourth-quarter earnings momentum that is not falling as sharply as at other banks. KKP stands out for its large share of capital market businesses such as brokerage and its overseas investments that help accelerate profit; although its valuation has risen somewhat, it still pays a high dividend and maintains a high ROE. On the overall Thai economy, growth this year is expected at 2%, with flooding cutting GDP by at most 0.1% if there is no second round of flooding. As for NPL concerns, the impact is seen as limited if flooding does not last longer than 2 to 3 days up to 1 week, and the government is expected to roll out measures to help borrowers. The research department of Kasikorn Securities sees a SET Index target of 1,680 points by the end of 2026, based on an EPS forecast of 105 baht and a valuation P/E of 16 times.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) issued an analysis of the banking sector, expecting the 7 banks under its coverage to post combined net profit of 54,905 million baht in the third quarter of 2026, down 11.7% year-on-year and down 0.9% quarter-on-quarter. The pressure comes from interest income, which is expected to decline amid still-limited loan growth, while net non-interest income is also expected to fall. However, some of the negative factors will be partly offset by slightly eased provisioning, as many banks front-loaded provisions heavily in the first half of this year. For the large banks, earnings are expected to decline year-on-year, but BBL and KTB are expected to begin showing a profit recovery from the previous quarter. The bank expected to post strong net profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter is KKP, supported by its capital markets business and accelerating wealth management. The earnings trend for the fourth quarter of 2026 points to a continued decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, due to lower policy interest rates than a year earlier, while net interest margin is likely to recover more slowly. This supports a full-year 2026 forecast for the banking sector's earnings of 216,680 million baht, down 3.5% year-on-year, before returning to growth in 2027 with an expected 5% increase on the back of anticipated easing in provisioning. Yuanta's research team selected KKP as its top pick with a target price of 130 baht, as it expects the bank's operating results in the third and fourth quarters of this year to outperform other banks, after its capital markets-related businesses continued to grow and it has already set aside provisions for high-risk SME borrowers. It also expects this year's dividend yield to be 6.2%. The team assesses that the recent share price decline stems from foreign fund flows returning to heavier net selling to reduce risk after major flooding in Thailand. However, the research team views that share prices have already priced in much of the concern, to the point that the dividend yields of most banks are back at attractive levels above 6%, so it maintains an equal weight to the market.

KKP Dime Securities Company Limited, or KKP Dime, has launched a physical gold withdrawal service through the Dime! application, in partnership with MTS Maethong Suk and YLG Corporation, allowing investors to convert gold accumulated in digital form into physical gold bars or gold coins. Withdrawals are available once a minimum of 0.05 troy ounces has been accumulated, with accumulation starting from 100 baht, no trading fees, and a choice of holding in Thai baht or US dollars. As of September 24, 2026, there were 267,064 gold investors on the Dime! application, up 73.56% from the same period a year earlier, while trading volume rose from 263.4 billion baht to 513.92 billion baht, a growth of 95.11% year on year. The value of gold assets held on the platform increased nearly 3.5 times to more than 10 billion baht. Thanakrit Rungrojanachaiporn, Chief Business Officer, said digital channels are playing a greater role in making it easier for investors to access and gradually accumulate gold, while Thipa Navawattanasap, Chief Executive Officer of YLG Corporation Company Limited, noted that Thailand's current demand for gold ranks first in ASEAN and among the top 10 in the world.

Chayut Krailatrattanasiri, Assistant Director of the Securities Analysis Department at Land and Houses Securities, disclosed that the decline in banking stocks, particularly KBANK, stemmed from pressure from foreign capital continuing to flow out of the Thai stock market in September, together with concerns over the earnings outlook for the third quarter of 2026. He expects the group's net profit to fall about 1.6% quarter-on-quarter and 10.6% year-on-year, weighed down by the high profit base of the previous year and the impact of interest rate adjustments. For KBANK, third-quarter net profit is expected to contract by nearly 10% quarter-on-quarter and by roughly 7% year-on-year, while non-interest income should hold up, especially at banks with a strong wealth management business. Investors should monitor the actual earnings announcements in mid-October, with three key variables: the recovery in lending, still-strong asset quality, and financial costs and provisions coming in lower than expected. On investment strategy, he recommends gradual accumulation, selecting individual stocks whose third-quarter earnings can still grow. CREDIT stands out most in the group and is expected to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, while KKP is expected to post outstanding growth compared with the same period last year. For KBANK and the large banks, he advises waiting for a good entry point to accumulate.

Analysts at Kasikorn Securities, or KS, expect third-quarter 2569 earnings for commercial banks to hold steady compared with the previous quarter. Although net interest income and non-interest income are likely to soften slightly, this will be offset by lower loan-loss provisioning expenses, while loan trends in the third quarter are also expected to be flat. For the overall commercial bank loan picture in August 2569, loans stood at 10.1 trillion baht, edging down 0.2% from the previous month but still growing 2.2% year-on-year, driven mainly by repayment of business loans, particularly by Bank of Ayudhya, or BAY, and Bangkok Bank, or BBL, while SME and retail loans continued to slow. However, some banks still posted loan growth, namely Krung Thai Bank, or KTB, TISCO Bank, or TISCO, and TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, which grew 0.2-0.3% from the previous month. As a result, overall bank loans since the start of the year expanded 2.2%, led by KTB with the highest growth of 6.4%, followed by Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, up 3.9%, and Siam Commercial Bank, or SCB, up 2.3%. On deposits, bank deposits in August stood at 11.98 trillion baht, up 0.6% from the previous month and up 3.0% year-on-year, with deposits rising at nearly every bank except KKP, which fell 0.9% from the previous month. For investment strategy, KS remains positive on bank stocks, with key drivers being recovering loan demand, net interest margins that have already passed their trough, and provisioning that is beginning to return to normal levels. It therefore recommends a buy rating, selecting KTB and KKP as its top picks in the sector, with a target price of 153 baht for KKP and 48 baht for KTB.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the Election Commission's use of barcodes and QR codes on constituency MP ballots on 8 February 2026 does not violate the constitution, after the Ombudsman filed a petition arguing that the codes could be traced back to individual voters and would breach the principle of secret voting. The court found that in practice tracing is extremely difficult and that adequate safeguards are in place. That election therefore remains valid and does not need to be rerun, and the court merely recommended considering alternative security measures for future elections. The outcome removes the most severe scenario the capital markets had feared, namely a nationwide annulment of the election leading to a political and policy vacuum. With the ruling of no wrongdoing, it is expected to be positive for overall market sentiment and for foreign investor confidence thanks to reduced political risk, especially for large-cap stocks with high foreign holdings and sectors that depend on continuity of government policy, such as construction contractors, power, industrial estates and banks, since the government can continue administering the country as normal. The investment themes that benefit most include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, power producers GULF, GPSC, BGRIM and GUNKUL, contractors STECON, CK, PYLON and INSET, banks KBANK, KTB and KKP, and component makers DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, in overall trading yesterday, the Thai stock index closed at 1,594.30 points, down 8.07 points, while Thai Airways, or THAI, closed at 6.05 baht, down 0.10 baht or 1.36%, amid a backlog of more than 5,600 pieces of unclaimed baggage. Thai Airways management explained that the main cause was a shortage of manpower, especially baggage handling teams and staff holding ground operation licences who were affected by flooding and unable to travel to work. In addition, Bangkok is Thai Airways' main aviation hub, so when a large number of employees are affected at the same time, the operating system comes under heavy pressure. The issue arose while Thai Airways is pressing ahead with its rehabilitation plan and its operating results have begun returning to profit. What the market and investors must therefore monitor from here on is not just the numbers in the financial statements, but also the efficiency of the operating system and the ability to cope with a crisis.

Nakorn Hataisattha, Head of Retail Investment Strategy Research and Economist at CGS International Securities (Thailand), or CGSI, said on the Stock News Market Focus programme on 28 September 2026 that the flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces this time differs from the great flood of 2011, because Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the Thai economy, making it a hugely important area for the country's economic activity. However, water levels in northern dams in 2026 stand at around 70%, compared with about 94% during the 2011 crisis, so the overall national risk still differs from that past event. Nakorn estimates the SET index could weaken below 1,600 points on selling driven by flood worries, but if the flooding eases within about four to five days, the market's correction could be a chance to buy certain stock groups. If the situation drags on beyond four to five days, the downside risk for the stock market will increase. Groups likely to come under pressure include property, stocks with factories in at-risk areas including electronic components such as KCE, insurers burdened by claims, and commercial banks on concerns about ECL provisioning. Retail stocks, meanwhile, may get a short-term positive sentiment boost from demand for consumer goods and home repair products. For high-dividend bank stocks such as TISCO and KKP, they could be an option if the situation eases quickly, with KKP also supported by the expansion of its investment platform business. CGSI believes that if the index falls below 1,600 points, the electronic components group is attractive to buy, especially DELTA, which still has a positive outlook from growing Thai exports of electronics and electrical appliances, and from the global investment cycle in AI, digital infrastructure, chips and memory, which continues to expand. If DELTA's share price falls sharply because of the floods, which are a one-off event, CGSI sees it as a chance to accumulate. Investors who do not want much volatility can consider HANA and KCE, and Nakorn said he likes HANA if the price falls to an attractive level.

Kasikorn Securities stated in an analysis that the third-quarter 2026 profits of the seven banks under its coverage will come in at 49.4 billion baht, down 2% QoQ and 15% YoY, with the main pressure coming from lower fair value through profit or loss gains and lower investment gains QoQ as government bond yields rose. However, core operating performance is expected to improve QoQ on an anticipated 2bps QoQ rise in net interest margin thanks to lower interest costs, and a credit cost that is expected to fall 7bps on smaller management overlay provisions compared with the second quarter of 2026. Looking at individual stocks, KKP, TISCO and TTB are expected to report standout YoY third-quarter 2026 profit growth of 25%, 6% and 5% respectively, while BBL, KTB and SCB are expected to see significant YoY profit declines on weaker net interest margins and lower realized fair value through profit or loss and investment gains. For the fourth-quarter 2026 and 2027 outlook, banking sector profits are expected to remain supported by easing interest costs and credit costs gradually returning to normal levels, with loan growth expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2026 driven mainly by corporate and government loans. The research team maintains a positive view on the banking sector, selecting KTB and KKP as top picks, and has shifted the valuation base year for all banking stocks from mid-2027 to end-2027, raising individual target prices by 1–3% without any change to earnings forecasts.

Pie Securities issued an analysis of banking stocks, expecting loan growth in the third quarter of 2026 to be flat compared with the previous quarter amid slowing economic activity. It expects loan growth to return in the fourth quarter of 2026 on seasonal factors from exports and accelerating household spending. For third-quarter 2026 results, profits are expected to decline from the same period a year earlier under pressure from lower net interest margins and reduced investment gains. The research team estimates that banking-sector net profit will fall 1% year on year in 2026 and return to growth of about 3% year on year in 2027. On investment strategy, it assigns a market-weight rating to banking stocks and expects an average dividend yield of 5.4% over 2026-2027. It selects KKP as its top pick on stronger profitability, solid asset quality and a high dividend yield, and selects KBANK because of profit growth in 2026-2027, a share price below book value, and the potential for a special dividend that would lift its dividend yield.

Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, or KKP, has expanded its human rights risk assessment framework, piloting the use of human rights criteria to screen 86 listed companies in its Thai equity portfolio as part of its investment decisions, according to disclosure by Aphinant Klewpatinond, Chief Executive Officer of KKP. The assessment results were presented to the Investment Committee for use in considering investments and as a guideline for discussions with listed companies to raise standards together. On the investment side, Kiatnakin Phatra Asset Management has co-signed the Principles for Responsible Investment, or PRI, under the support of the United Nations, or UN. At the same time, KKP has begun assessing risks from the use of AI technology in the workplace in order to set measures to prevent bias and discrimination from algorithms in processes affecting employee rights, such as recruitment, performance evaluation, and compensation, establishing the norm that human oversight must always govern decisions, while preparing Reskill and Upskill plans to support the job structures that will change in the future. In addition, KKP has expanded its standards to cover child rights principles, particularly establishing a precautionary framework in advertising and marketing work so as not to affect vulnerable groups. Over the past three years, the organization has had no complaints of human rights violations at all. Most recently, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank was honored as one of 40 large business organizations to receive the Human Rights Award for the year 2569 at the excellent level, for the second consecutive year, from the Ministry of Justice, with Dr. Warapong Wongwachara, Head of the Sustainability Office, representing the organization to receive the award on September 24.

Pie Securities reported that US government bond yields rose sharply, with the 10-year in particular hitting a new record and a 19-year high, after the UN meeting where Iran declared it would not surrender to US pressure, reflecting that the war may be prolonged. This pressured crude oil prices, with Brent closing up 3.9%, while US PMI came in better than expected in both manufacturing and services. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 352 points, or 0.7%, overnight on concerns over rising bond yields. Microsoft gained 0.5%, but Google fell 3.8%. The baht weakened sharply, testing 33.44 baht per dollar, and investors assign a 70% probability that the Fed will raise rates again in October. Pie Securities estimates the SET will move in a range of 1,590 to 1,620 points and recommends short-term strategies trading energy and petrochemical stocks, namely PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC and TOP; stocks benefiting from rising yields, namely BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB and KKP; export stocks, namely ITC and TU, supported by the weak baht; and defensive stocks, namely ADVANC, CPN, CPALL, ICHI, BDMS, BH, BCH and PR9. It recommends buying TU with a target price of 15.4 baht on the prospect of several positive factors in the second half of 2026, including the peak export season, a weaker baht, and the UK cutting its import tax on Thai tuna to 0% from 24%. It also recommends buying KBANK with a target price of 259 baht, expecting net profit to grow 2% in 2026 and expand 4% in 2027, supported by growth in non-interest income and a lower cost-to-income ratio of 42.7% to 42.8%.

Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET Index to trade sideways today after the investment mood came under pressure once again from bond yields, along with rising oil prices. It estimates support at 1,600-1,605 points and resistance at 1,614-1,618 points, and sees energy stocks potentially attracting buying back. Meanwhile, US stocks closed lower after bond yields surged again, while oil prices rebounded strongly after Trump's speech at the UN, in which he gave Iran a choice between negotiating or letting the US wipe it out completely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded without backing down, but stressed that Iran is always ready for diplomatic talks if they are equal and do not use threatening language or force. As for the main strategy, Dao sees the market possibly pulling back but views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate Mega Play Theme stocks such as Data Center and power plants, and still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks also remain attractive, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium-to-long-term tourism recovery theme, it still likes AOT, CENTEL and ERW. The top pick today is PTTEP, supported by the short-term crude oil price outlook after Iran's president said at the UN that Iran will not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions remain in effect. Brent crude closed up 3.9% yesterday at 103.1 US dollars per barrel. Buy, target price 180.00 baht. Also AOT, which will benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects that during China's long holiday from 25 September to 7 October 2026, which covers both the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday, 250,000 Chinese tourists will come to Thailand, up 24% YoY. It also estimates normal profit in 4QFY26E will grow well both YoY and QoQ from the gradual recovery in international passengers and the first full quarter of recognition of the new PSC rate. Buy, target price 72.00 baht. The top picks on technical signals are PTTEP and CCET.

KGI Securities (Thailand) says large corporate loans grew strongly in August 2026, with short-term money market loans and interbank lending rising sharply at every bank except Siam Commercial Bank, which shifted its excess liquidity into bond investments instead. Overall money market loans grew 14% month on month, with BBL and KBANK posting the strongest growth among the large banks at about 18% month on month each, followed by TTB at 14% month on month and KTB at 13% month on month, while KKP recorded growth of as much as 36% month on month. Retail loans declined broadly, with only KTB lending aggressively, as most banks applied cautious lending criteria, including for housing loans and hire purchase loans, with SCB and TTB seeing their hire purchase loan portfolios contract because of stricter standards on electric vehicles. KTB, however, appears to have a more aggressive policy on housing and retail lending, which should be positive for its net interest margin, while total loans and money market lending grew 1.4% month on month compared with deposits at 0.5% month on month. KGI says growth in private investment accelerated in August, in line with the recovery in lending, and large banks should be the main beneficiaries, with KTB, KBANK and BBL standing out the most, while the momentum in private investment could drive full-year loan growth about 2% above the banks' financial targets.

Krungsri Securities said Thailand has signed the ASEAN-Hong Kong Investment Agreement, or AHKIA, to open up investment markets between the two sides and attract investment from Hong Kong in high-potential target industries, focusing on automobiles, auto parts, and printed circuit boards, or PCB. In addition, the agreement will help promote supply chain connectivity and give Thai investors the opportunity to expand their businesses into Hong Kong to connect with the Chinese market. The research team assesses that sentiment toward the SET is positive given the continued approach of drawing foreign investment. Stocks that benefit from the investment theme include industrial estates AMATA and WHA, as well as banks KBANK, KTB, KKP, and BBL.

Foreign investors returned to buying Thai stocks, with net purchases of 52.68226 billion baht from the start of the year through September 22, comprising 6.60989403 trillion baht in buys and 6.55721177 trillion baht in sells. In September alone, net buying reached 1.31328 billion baht, from 626.56138 billion baht in buys and 625.24810 billion baht in sells, marking the highest foreign buying in two months and making the Thai stock market the most sought-after in ASEAN. The supporting factor came from Meta's launch of a new AI model with higher processing efficiency, offered free of charge, which the market expects will extend its advertising business and accelerate demand for AI CAPEX, benefiting Thai component stocks, especially DELTA and HANA. Meanwhile, Infra Tech stocks drew support from the NBTC's proposal for a data center board to set new investment criteria, including requiring operators to have power purchase agreements and water supply certificates, to use domestic materials no less than 50%, and to add sustainability requirements. This is expected to boost industrial estate stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power stocks such as GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, bank stocks such as KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, as well as contractor stocks such as STECON, PYLON and INSET. At the same time, the Cabinet meeting approved extending the Thai Help Thai Plus 40/60 Phase 2 project by another 2 months, from October 1 to November 30, 2026, with a total budget of 42.69 billion baht, and approved an additional 700 baht per person in product purchase credit for state welfare cardholders for October only, bringing the total injection to 1,000 baht per person. This measure is expected to benefit retail stocks such as CPAXT, BJC and CPALL, as well as consumer goods stocks such as CBG and OSP, in a second-round effect.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) estimates that KKP will post net profit of approximately 2.4 billion baht in the third quarter, up 43.6% from the same period a year earlier and up 13% from the previous quarter, driven by continued growth in fee income, particularly from the capital markets business, while interest expenses declined. For the first nine months of 2026, net profit is expected to be approximately 6.5 billion baht, up 56.4% from the same period a year earlier. On loans, the third quarter is expected to grow about 0.7% from the previous quarter, slowing from growth of 1.6% and 1.5% in the first and second quarters respectively. The research team maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 7.5 billion baht, up 26.9% from a year earlier, and keeps its target price at 114 baht with a hold recommendation. It expects KKP to pay a 2026 dividend of 6.90 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of approximately 5.9%, and a 2027 dividend of 7.67 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of approximately 6.5%.

Krungsri Securities reported that the setting of new Data Center investment criteria is making continuous progress. Most recently, the NBTC proposed to the Data Center Board three key conditions: operators must have adequate utilities, meaning they must have power purchase agreements, or PPAs, and sufficient water supply service certifications; they must use domestically produced structural materials, construction work and electrical systems at a proportion of no less than 50% to support Thai industry; and a sustainability requirement, or Go Green, must be added, requiring operators to have guidelines to reduce environmental impact, cut carbon emissions and have electronic waste management plans. The research department assesses that this rapid and clear adjustment of the criteria is positive for Thailand's economic direction in the period ahead, and the Local Content condition will help circulate Data Center investment money into other industries. Stocks expected to gain positive sentiment include Infra Tech theme stocks such as AMATA and WHA, power group stocks GULF, BGRIM and GUNKUL, banking group stocks KBANK, KTB, KKP and BBL, and construction group stocks STECON, PYLON and INSET.

DBS Vickers Securities Thailand estimates that the SET index today has a chance to hold above the 1,600-point level, driven by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices may pressure energy stocks into selling. It sees support at 1,584-1,592 points and resistance at 1,604-1,610 points. It also noted that investors are still watching the Trump-Xi meeting. In the U.S. market, stocks rose sharply led by AI names such as Meta, and WTI crude fell below 100 U.S. dollars, pushing bond yields to close below 5%, which is expected to support buying in beneficiary groups such as data centers and power plants. It continues to favor GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banks remain resilient given lingering uncertainty, so it still favors KTB, KBANK and KKP. Over the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks such as AOT, CENTEL and ERW. For today's top pick, it recommends CPALL, estimating 2026E profit at 33 billion baht, up 18% year on year, supported by 700 new branch openings and product mix, with a target price of 63.00 baht. Its technical picks are BGRIM and STECON.

Dao Securities expects the Thai stock market on September 22, 2026, to see the SET Index attempt to hold above 1,600 points, helped by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices could pressure energy shares with selling. The investment mood has improved again, and investors are watching the meeting between Trump and Xi. In the US market, stocks rose sharply, especially AI-related names led by META, and with WTI oil falling below 100 dollars per barrel, the US bond yield closed below 5%, supporting the investment climate. Fitch Ratings announced on September 18 that it had revised Thailand's credit outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, a supportive factor for the market. The SET opened the morning up more than 9 to 13 points, testing 1,600 points, with buying concentrated mainly in banking and financial stocks. Dao Securities' main strategy states that a US bond yield closing below 5% will draw buying into stocks that benefit from lower bond yields under the Mega Play theme, such as data centers and power plants, and it still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks should be resilient amid lingering uncertainty, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks, namely AOT, CENTEL and ERW.

Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, or KKP, published an analysis stating that Thailand's healthcare industry is entering a major structural turning point, with healthcare spending as a share of GDP rising from 3.08% in 2000 to 4.54% in 2023, and with a growing trend of shifting the burden from the public sector to the private sector. Analyst Teerapol Udomwet said Thailand faces challenges from an aging society and rising medical costs, while the government's fiscal space is limited. Currently the state bears as much as 78% of the country's total healthcare expenses, and fiscal constraints are expected to become clear by 2030 due to rules requiring capital expenditure to be kept at no less than 20% of the annual budget. The analysis estimates that the state's annual burden of more than 450 billion to 500 billion baht could be partly transferred to the private sector, representing an incremental value of more than 100 billion baht, or about 40% of the current revenue of listed private hospital groups. In the health insurance business, only 6.4% of the population holds policies, below the OECD average of 36%, though premiums grew at an average of 8% per year during 2019-2025. Hospital stocks are trading at a 2026 P/E of just 19 times, below the regional average of about 30 times. KKP believes the group's earnings passed their bottom in the second quarter and recommends large-cap stocks BDMS and BH as beneficiaries in both the short and long term.

Wind Energy Holding, or WEH, Thailand's largest wind power producer, successfully closed its fundraising through bonds totalling 7 billion baht in full, split into four tranches of ordinary bonds and Investment Grade green bonds offered to institutional and high-net-worth investors. The bonds received a AAA rating with a stable outlook from TRIS Rating, under the guarantee of the Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility, or CGIF, which was established through cooperation among ASEAN member countries, China, Japan, South Korea and the Asian Development Bank. The bonds were issued by two WEH subsidiaries, Tropical Wind Company Limited and K.R.S. Tree Company Limited, as amortising bonds with an interest rate of 3.56 percent per year, a term of 9 years and 9 months, maturing in 2036. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities is the bond distribution manager, and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank is the bond registrar and bondholders' representative. This transaction is the largest CGIF-supported deal in Thailand to date. WEH currently has eight operational wind power plants with a total installed capacity of 717 megawatts, and four wind and solar projects with energy storage systems under construction and development with a combined capacity of 1,106 megawatts, with a goal of expanding to 2,000 megawatts. The company's revenue has exceeded 10 billion baht and net profit has topped 5 billion baht for five consecutive years, and it has paid shareholders total dividends of more than 11 billion baht.

WEH successfully sold out its bond issue worth a total of 7,000 million baht, comprising four tranches of both general bonds and green bonds at Investment Grade level. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities acted as the underwriter, while Kiatnakin Phatra Bank served as the bond registrar and holder representative. The bonds were offered to institutional and high-net-worth investors and received a AAA rating with a stable outlook from TRIS Rating. Meanwhile, TPS launched the TALLI platform, a Thai-made AI built on the concept of unlocking AI for enterprises, enabling AI to access and use data within the rights, scope, and governance defined by each organization. It also serves as a gateway that helps organizations start using AI with their existing systems and data as efficiently as possible. SISB, for its part, is moving ahead with the expansion of its seventh international school under the new brand Marina Singapore International School in Pathum Thani Province, with capacity for 1,200 seats, targeting families in the Rangsit and Pathum Thani areas. It is expected to open in August 2570.

KGI Securities has raised its target price for KKP shares to 145 baht from 125 baht, maintaining a buy recommendation, after lifting its 2027F profit forecast by a further 5% to reflect fee income growth accelerating to 17% from a previously estimated 8%, and a PE re-rating to 14x from 12.5x, equivalent to a PBV of 1.75x, based on the shift to 2027F estimates. That represents a premium of about 30% over fair PBV, reflecting the ability to lift ROE and a dividend yield as high as 7%. The research team kept its 2026F profit forecast unchanged, assessing that provisioning expenses have passed their peak and are trending down to 1.2-1.3% in the second half of 2026, after provisions rose to 1.46% of loans, supported by lower losses from repossessed vehicles and a 20% year-on-year decline in NPLs in the first half of 2026 across all loan segments, along with the clearing of long-overdue bad debts in the first half of 2026. On the wealth management side, KKP has gained market share, with its high net-worth asset base growing 13% year-to-date, mutual funds and private funds up 14%, and the Dime segment up more than 60%. It has assets under management of more than 1.1 trillion baht, growing at twice the industry average, and revenue from this business accounts for 70% of total non-NII income, or about 30% of total revenue. Meanwhile, investment banking revenue came in at 145 million baht in the first half of 2026, down 16% year-on-year, with the research team assuming IB fees of 312 million baht in 2026F and 350 million baht in 2027F.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, as the market expected, while its Dot Plot signaled one more 25 basis point hike to 4.00–4.25% by the end of this year, even as the overall picture reflects a High for Longer stance. Efinancethai gathered the views of analysts from four houses. Krungsri Securities expects the SET to rebound today, with resistance at 1,575 and 1,583 points and support at 1,550 and 1,545 points. Finansia Syrus Securities expects the SET Index to move Sideways to Sideways Up in a range of 1,555–1,572 points. Pi Securities assesses a range of 1,550–1,580 points, and Aira Securities says the market has already priced in the concerns. Sectors seen benefiting include commercial banks, with standout picks KBANK, BBL, KTB, SCB and KKP; exporters and electronic components, DELTA, HANA, TU and ITC; Value Play and medical stocks, BDMS, BCH and BH; groups that get a psychological boost from softer crude oil prices, such as airlines AOT, THAI and BA, construction materials and contractors TASCO, STECON and PYLON, power and utilities GULF, GPSC and BGRIM, and hotels AWC and ERW. Stocks seen under pressure include groups carrying high financial costs, such as utilities and power, and industries tied to falling oil prices, such as oil and refineries, amid psychological pressure after Brent crude fell sharply to US$105 a barrel.

Analysts at Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assess that this meeting of the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise the policy rate by 0.25% in what is being called an Insurance Rate Hike, a pre-emptive move. The market has already priced in about 92% odds of a hike this round, so the bigger driver for the market is the direction of the Dot Plot, along with inflation projections and the number of remaining rate increases ahead. KSS believes that if the Fed signals a pause to assess more economic and inflation data, the stock market could see a short-term rebound, or Relief Rally, with domestic and defensive stocks drawing more attention, especially hospitals such as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, or BDMS, and Bangkok Chain Hospital, or BCH. If instead the Fed signals continued rate hikes beyond market expectations, that would pressure stocks with high valuations that are sensitive to bond yields, such as Delta Electronics (Thailand), or DELTA. Meanwhile, Phillip Securities (Thailand), or PST, assesses that the Thai stock market is likely to move sideways down in the short term on investors reducing risk ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the 2-year bond yield rising to 4.69% while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.04%, the highest levels since 2024 and 2007 respectively. As for Thai stocks that benefit from interest rates holding at a high level, the research team names the banking group: TMBThanachart Bank, or TTB, Kasikornbank, or KBANK, SCB X, or SCB, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, and Tisco Financial Group, or TISCO. In the insurance group: Bangkok Life Assurance, or BLA, Thai Life Insurance, or TLI, and Dhipaya Group Holdings, or TIPH.

TTB Wealth Securities stated that the 10-year US bond yield has accelerated to 4.99%, with the market raising the probability that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at this Thursday's meeting to 92.4%, and there is a chance the Fed will raise rates four times in this cycle, up from the previous expectation of only one to two times. Meanwhile, the 10-year Thai bond yield has risen to 2.36%. The research team views this as positive for the banking group, namely KTB, KBANK, BBL, and KKP, and the insurance group, namely TLI and BLA.

Kasikorn Securities has issued an analysis of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, or KKP, maintaining a buy recommendation and a target price of 150 baht. It views KKP as transitioning from a bank driven by its balance sheet and credit cycles toward a more diversified financial services platform, with non-interest income accounting for roughly 37% of revenue in the first half of 2026. The research team states that the Wealth business is becoming a core structural business, with KKP's mutual fund market share rising to 4.6% in the second quarter of 2026 from 1.28% in 2019, while assets under management have more than doubled over the past seven years. As for Dime!, it generated revenue of 876 million baht in the first half of 2026, already exceeding its full-year 2025 revenue, with users up 36% year-to-date to 2.2 million and assets under the platform up 66% to 173.9 billion baht. The research team expects profit to grow 42.6%, 11.6%, and 8.3% in 2026 through 2028, to 8.4 billion baht, 9.4 billion baht, and 10.2 billion baht, respectively, and assesses that ROE could rise from 9.3% in 2025 to 13.3% in 2028. The valuation is based on a PBV of 1.89 times, referencing a long-term ROE of 13.3% and a cost of equity of 9.4%, and it views growth in capital-light businesses as likely to support a dividend payout ratio of 80%, reflecting a dividend yield of roughly 6-7% in 2027-2028.