Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited operates in the hotel business through its subsidiaries in Thailand, the Republic of Maldives, and Japan. It has two segments: Hotel and Related Services Operation, and Food and Ice-Cream. The company is also involved in food and beverage, hotel management, import and export, and labour contracting, and operates a learning centre. Its brands include Centara Reserve, The Centara Collection, Centara Grand, Centara, Centara Life, COSI, SPA Cenvaree, and Centara The1. Founded in 1980, it is based in Bangkok, Thailand.
CENTEL's recovery gains steam as Chinese demand surges and brokers turn bullish
▲
Chinese Golden Week bookings surge, boosting hotel demand Trip.com reports China-Phuket flight bookings up 78% and 7-night-plus stays up 123% ahead of Golden Week 2026. This directly lifts CENTEL's hotel revenue and profit, especially in Phuket and Bangkok, as Chinese tourists return in bigger numbers and stay longer.
This is a fresh, concrete demand signal that directly drives CENTEL's revenue and earnings.
▲
Brokers turn bullish: KGI and InnovestX name CENTEL a top pick KGI's October top picks include CENTEL, noting Q3 RevPAR recovered to mid-single-digit growth from -10% in Q2, with further improvement expected in Q4 high season. InnovestX also recommends CENTEL as a fundamentally strong Thai stock benefiting from public investment. These endorsements can attract buyers and support the share price.
New analyst recommendations and positive RevPAR data provide fresh catalysts for investor sentiment and demand for the stock.
▲
CENTEL expands budget hotel chain with OR partnership OR and CENTEL finalised six pilot budget hotels at service stations, opening 2027-2028, with double-digit returns. This expands CENTEL's room count and earnings base, showing growth beyond the current hotel cycle and supporting longer-term profit.
This is a new concrete expansion that adds future supply and earnings growth, a positive fundamental driver.
▼
Floods and delayed tourism stimulus weigh on near-term demand Bangkok flooding and the delay of the Thai Tiew Thai Plus tourism measure to 2027 pressured tourism stocks including CENTEL. DBS Vickers sees a slight negative impact on tourism from the floods, though brokers call it short-lived and recommend buying on dips.
This is the main counterweight: it explains why the stock may face near-term pressure despite positive recovery signs.
Q3 2026
▲3▼1
CENTEL upgraded on strong Q2, tourism recovery, but outflows and floods weigh
▲
Strong Q2 earnings beat CENTEL's Q2 core profit grew about 35%, beating expectations by 24%, thanks to better food margins, cost control, and lower interest costs. This led brokers to upgrade the stock and raise price targets to 48–49 baht.
The earnings beat was the main catalyst for the upgrade and positive sentiment.
▲
Tourism recovery and weak baht Thailand's tourism recovery is speeding up, with 2026 arrivals forecast at up to 33 million. A Chinese Golden Week surge and a weak baht are boosting hotel bookings and revenue for CENTEL.
Tourism recovery directly drives CENTEL's hotel business and was a key reason for the upgrade.
▲
Budget hotel expansion with OR CENTEL is expanding its budget hotel chain with OR, targeting more growth in the affordable segment. This move is expected to capture rising domestic and regional travel demand.
Expansion into budget hotels is a new growth initiative highlighted by brokers.
▼
Geopolitical tensions and foreign outflows Geopolitical tension pushed oil above $100, triggering over 9 billion baht in foreign outflows from Thai stocks. Bangkok floods and delayed stimulus also weigh on near-term bookings, though brokers see these as short-lived.
These headwinds pressured the stock price despite positive fundamentals.
News & notes movingCENTEL.BK
Thailand
CENTEL.BK▲
OR partners with CENTEL to open six budget hotels, targeting 50 branches by 2031
PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has unveiled plans to develop a first phase of six budget hotels together with Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL. OR will hold a 49% stake and CENTEL 51%. Five of the sites are at service stations and one is outside a service station. The first three branches, already under construction, are in Kanchanaburi, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Songkhla, and are expected to open in the third quarter of next year. The other three, in Bangkok, Chonburi and Phuket, are undergoing environmental reports and will open in the second quarter of 2028. The six hotels use a combined investment budget of 700 million baht, with construction costs capped at no more than 1 million baht per room. Funding will be split 50% equity and 50% debt. The buildings will be five to six storeys tall, with average room sizes of 18 to 20 square metres and 79 rooms. The company targets a first-year occupancy rate of about 60%, rising to 60–70% in the second year, with a long-term goal of 75–80%. It estimates a gross profit margin of about 50%, an EBITDA margin of 40–45%, an EBIT margin of about 20%, and a net profit margin of no less than 10%. Room rates will range from 800 to 1,300 baht, with a loyalty programme linking Blue Plus Points and The ONE Points. Ratchasuda Rangsiyakul, Senior Executive Vice President of Special Business 1 at OR, said entering the hotel business will help lift traffic at its service stations from 3.9 million users per day to 5 million per day. The first six branches will serve as a pilot to test the system before expanding to a full 50 locations in 2031, and once the model proves successful the company will scale up through franchising. The joint venture will provide management services to a standard, and dealers in the group have already approached the company seeking to open hotels.
CENTEL.BK · Capital · Positive CENTEL forms a joint venture with OR to develop six budget hotels (51% stake), expanding its hotel portfolio with a 700-million-baht investment.
OR.BK · Capital · Positive OR invests in a six-hotel joint venture (49% stake) to lift service-station traffic from 3.9 million to 5 million users per day, with plans to scale to 50 branches by 2031.
Vision recommends 3 hotel stocks to benefit from China's long holiday and IMF-World Bank meetings
Chayut Krailatrattanasiri, Assistant Director of the Research Department at Land and Houses Securities, told the Vision team that the overall outlook for tourism stocks in the fourth quarter of 2026 is clearly quite positive. Although early in the quarter there was pressure from flooding, this is assessed as only a short-term impact. The main supporting factors come from China's Golden Week, a long holiday early in the fourth quarter that has helped drive Chinese tourist arrivals into Thailand higher, with a clear acceleration, as well as Thailand hosting the IMF and World Bank meetings in mid-October, a positive factor in terms of policy and economic activity that directly supports tourism stocks. The research team views hotels as the biggest beneficiaries of the recovery in tourist numbers, expecting fourth-quarter operating results and profits to grow outstandingly. Airlines also benefit, but their upside is limited by still-high oil costs. The three standout hotel stocks named as Top Picks are AWC, with a target price of 20 baht, which the research team is in the process of reviewing upward on structural positives from the establishment of AWR that will help unlock asset value and increase liquidity; ERW, with a target price of 80 baht, which is assessed as still offering upside for investment; and CENTEL, with a consensus target price of 50 baht.
AWC.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a Top Pick hotel stock expected to benefit from higher Chinese tourist arrivals during China's Golden Week and the IMF-World Bank meetings in Thailand.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a Top Pick hotel stock with a 50 baht consensus target, seen as a key beneficiary of the Q4 tourism recovery from Chinese Golden Week arrivals and the IMF-World Bank meetings.
ERW.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a Top Pick hotel stock with an 80 baht target, assessed as still offering upside from the expected surge in tourist numbers in Q4.
InnovestX Recommends Buy on Dip with 3 Themes to Navigate Flooding, Expects Only 21 Billion Baht Hit to 2026 GDP
Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.
InnovestX Says Q4 Strategy Favors Stock Picking, 3-5 Year Bonds, Gold Target of $5,300
InnovestX Securities Company Limited assessed its investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2026, saying financial markets still face volatility from oil prices, inflation, interest rate direction and elevated bond yields, forcing investors to place greater weight on asset selection and investment timing. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX, said the firm raised its target for the Thai stock index in 2026 from 1,600 points to 1,700 points, after expecting market earnings per share in 2026 to grow about 22% and second-quarter economic data to be stronger than expected. He recommended a fourth-quarter strategy focused on stock selection rather than buying the whole market, viewing levels below 1,550 points as an accumulation point for fundamentally strong stocks such as AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. For fixed income, he recommended focusing on 3-5 year maturities to capture still-attractive carry yield and reduce risk from interest rate volatility, with an overweight to developed-market bonds. On gold, the firm maintained a positive medium- to long-term view, estimating a 12-month price target of 5,300 US dollars per ounce on demand for diversification and capital flowing back into gold ETFs. The Thai stock market from the start of 2026 through the close on October 1, 2026 saw the SET Index at 1,563.91 points, up about 24.15% from 1,259.67 points at the end of 2025. Domestic retail investors were the largest net buyers at 58,807.49 million baht, while domestic institutional investors were the largest net sellers at about 86,397.26 million baht. From late September through early October 2026, foreign investors sold Thai shares for eight consecutive trading sessions totaling more than 34,162 million baht. Data from the Thai Bond Market Association showed that in September 2026 foreign investors were net sellers of Thai bonds worth 22,003 million baht, bringing the cumulative year-to-date net foreign selling of Thai bonds to 9,426 million baht.
AMATA.BK · Demand · Positive InnovestX names AMATA among fundamentally strong stocks to accumulate on expected 22% 2026 EPS growth and stronger Q2 data.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive CENTEL is listed among the fundamentally strong Thai stocks InnovestX recommends accumulating below 1,550 points.
CRC.BK · Demand · Positive CRC is named among the fundamentally strong stocks InnovestX recommends buying on market weakness.
KTB.BK · Demand · Positive KTB is included in InnovestX's list of fundamentally strong stocks to accumulate for Q4 2026.
PR9.BK · Demand · Positive PR9 is named among the fundamentally strong stocks InnovestX recommends accumulating below 1,550 points.
InnovestX Expects Thai Stocks to Stay Volatile, Sets This Year's Target at 1,700 Points and Next Year's at 1,715
InnovestX Securities Company Limited assesses that Thailand's financial markets will remain volatile throughout the fourth quarter of 2026, pressured by interest rate hikes from major central banks worldwide. Suthichai Koomworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research, said there are seven signals to watch: crude oil prices, government bond yields, public debt burdens, the US election, natural disasters and the El Niño phenomenon, demand for AI technology, and the earnings of listed companies. Dr. Piyasak Manasant, Head of Economic Research, estimates the impact of flooding on the economy, especially in Bangkok, at approximately 21,000 million baht, split into about 19,000 million baht in the third quarter of 2026 and another approximately 1,800 million baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, representing pressure on GDP of about -0.11%. However, there is a positive factor from the extension of the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2" program, which supports GDP by about +0.08%, leaving the net impact at only about -0.03%. GDP is expected to grow 2.0% both this year and next year. Meanwhile, Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, views this round of flooding as only a short-term event and expects that fund flows, which saw outflows of about 30,000 million baht over the past two weeks, will return to buy after the waters recede. He gives a suitable entry point of 1,500 to 1,550 points, maintains this year's SET target at 1,700 points, and sets next year's target at 1,715 points. Top picks for the fourth quarter of 2026 include AMATA with a target price of 44 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 47 baht, CRC with a target price of 31 baht, KTB with a target price of 49 baht, and PR9 with a target price of 23 baht.
OR unveils non-oil plan, launching six Centara hotels in 2027-2028
Mom Luang Pikthong Thongyai, Chief Executive Officer of PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has unveiled a strategy for its non-oil business, saying it is a key profit engine amid volatile oil prices. The company is pressing ahead with expanding Cafe Amazon coffee shops both inside and outside its service stations, focusing on new locations in hospitals and community areas such as temples, and is considering developing a mobile store format. It is also teaming up with partners on collaboration products such as soy sauce to attract younger customers. On progress in its partnership with Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, to develop budget hotels within service stations, the company has finalised six pilot locations: Bangkok, Kanchanaburi, Ayutthaya, Phuket, Chonburi and Songkhla. Five are branches inside service stations and one is outside a service station, in the Don Mueang area near the Red Line train station opposite Terminal 2. The hotels are five-storey buildings with about 79 rooms per branch, priced at roughly 800 to 100 baht per night. Construction takes about one year, with a gradual opening in 2027-2028. The project has double-digit returns on investment and profit margins. OR is also the first company to offer sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, at service stations for regional airports, blending Jet A1 fuel with biofuel made from used cooking oil at a ratio of about 1%, priced roughly five times higher than normal Jet A1.
OR.BK · Demand · Positive OR unveils non-oil strategy expanding Cafe Amazon and launching six Centara budget hotels with CENTEL, adding new revenue streams.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive CENTEL partners with OR to develop six budget hotels at service stations, opening 2027-2028, expanding its hotel portfolio.
Three brokerages set SET targets for the final stretch of 2026, pick top Q4/2026 stocks
Three securities firms have shared their outlooks for the Thai stock market in the final stretch of the year, along with their SET index targets and top stock picks for investment in the fourth quarter of 2026. Each has a different view and set of recommendations based on fundamentals and market trends. InnovestX has set a SET index target of 1,715 points for 2027 and named its top picks for Q4/2026: AMATA, CENTEL, CRC, KTB and PR9. ASPS estimates a SET index target of 1,720 points for 2026 and selected CPN, CBG, THAI, BDMS, BBL, COM7, STECON and GUNKUL as its top picks. KSS expects the SET index to trade in a target range of 1,680 to 1,750 points in 2026 and highlights TOP, PTTGC, SCC, IVL, GULF, DELTA and KBANK as its top picks.
KGI unveils 5 top picks for October, focusing on private investment and data center themes
KGI Securities unveiled its top stock picks for October 2026, recommending accumulation of stocks in the private investment and data center themes, comprising DELTA, GULF, WHA, STECON and CENTEL. The research team believes the market in October is likely to rebound, as the market has already priced in much of the global economic risk, including uncertainty in the Middle East and surging bond yields in major markets worldwide. It expects the SET Index to recover, and sees a high chance the Fed will pause rate hikes temporarily after August core PCE came in below consensus. It also sees a fairly high possibility that the US and Iran will reach some form of ceasefire agreement soon. On domestic factors, the Thai government began rolling out the final phase of consumption stimulus measures today and will shift its focus to stimulating private investment, including PPP-model infrastructure projects and FDIs. As for STECON, it signed new project contracts worth 10 billion baht, equal to 20% of its 2026F target of 50 billion baht, lifting its backlog to 116.4 billion baht, and it expects to win another 70 billion baht in projects, mainly data centers and power plants. Meanwhile, GULF has identified data center demand of more than 2GW of capacity expected to secure Direct PPAs, and the PDP2026 plan is expected to add another 20-30GW of renewable energy capacity and another 20GW of gas-fired capacity. For CENTEL, the research team remains positive after updating information with management, noting that RevPAR booked in Q3/2026F recovered year-on-year by a mid-single-digit rate from -10% in Q2/2026, and is expected to improve further during the high season in Q4/2026F. The recommended portfolio for September fell 2.6%, underperforming the overall market, which declined 2.0%.
STECON.BK · Demand · Positive STECON signed new project contracts worth 10 billion baht (20% of its 2026F target), lifting backlog to 116.4 billion baht, and expects another 70 billion baht mainly in data centers and power plants.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive RevPAR booked in Q3/2026F recovered to mid-single-digit growth from -10% in Q2, with further improvement expected in the Q4 high season.
GULF.BK · Demand · Positive GULF identified data center demand of more than 2GW expected to secure Direct PPAs, plus PDP2026 adding 20-30GW renewable and 20GW gas-fired capacity.
Trip.com reports China-Phuket flight bookings surge 78% ahead of Golden Week 2026
Kasikorn Securities revealed that Trip.com Group indicated Chinese tourists during Golden Week 2026 are tending to travel earlier and stay longer, with flight bookings to Phuket rising 78% year on year, while Chiang Mai is gaining popularity among Gen Z, in line with the recovery of travel in Asia. In addition, bookings for accommodation of seven nights or more rose 123% year on year, reflecting both an increase in the number of trips and in their duration. The research team views this as positive momentum for the tourism sector, namely AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL and ERW, given the recovery opportunity for Chinese tourists and tourism activity during Golden Week. However, the flood situation still needs to be monitored closely.
9961.HK · Demand · Positive Trip.com reported China-Phuket flight bookings up 78% YoY and 7+ night accommodation bookings up 123% ahead of Golden Week 2026, signaling strong end-customer travel demand.
AAV.BK · Demand · Positive Chinese Golden Week flight bookings to Phuket up 78% and longer stays signal stronger travel demand benefiting AAV's airline operations.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive Surge in China-Phuket flight bookings and longer trips point to higher passenger traffic through AOT's airports.
BA.BK · Demand · Positive Rising Chinese tourist bookings to Phuket and Chiang Mai support demand for Bangkok Airways' routes.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive 123% jump in 7-night-plus accommodation bookings reflects stronger hotel demand for CENTEL during Golden Week.
Kasikorn Securities says floods have limited impact on tourism, recommends accumulating AWC, CENTEL, THAI
Kasikorn Securities stated that the impact of the flood situation on tourism businesses remains manageable, with tourism operations continuing as normal. According to flood reports, the situation has expanded to cover 25 provinces and Bangkok, resulting in 8 deaths across 3 provinces, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation as of September 26. About 84,600 people from 27,100 households in 21 provinces have been affected. During September 16–26, the floods affected a cumulative total of more than 102,000 people across 36 provinces. The three airlines under analysis did not cancel flights during September 25–27, though some ground operations were affected. All three airlines allowed passengers to change flights within one week at no additional cost, while THAI allowed changes to flights departing from Thailand through October 11. Hotel operators reported no property damage from the floods and no significant impact on revenue during September 25–27, with booking cancellations at about 2–15% of total bookings, mostly at upcountry hotels, partially offset by guests extending their stays, equivalent to about 20–30% of cancellations. The research team expects the floods to have a limited impact on third-quarter 2569 profits for the tourism sector, as the most severely affected period lasted only about 3 days. It therefore maintains a neutral view on the tourism sector and continues to favour hotel stocks, viewing the decline in hotel share prices due to the floods as an investment opportunity. It recommends BUY on AWC with a target price of 3.74 baht, BUY on CENTEL with a target price of 48.11 baht, and BUY on THAI with a target price of 6.78 baht.
AWC.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities recommends BUY on AWC with a 3.74 baht target price, viewing the flood-driven share decline as an investment opportunity.
CENTEL.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities recommends BUY on CENTEL with a 48.11 baht target price, viewing the flood-driven share decline as an investment opportunity.
THAI.BK · Capital · Positive Kasikorn Securities recommends BUY on THAI with a 6.78 baht target price, noting limited flood impact and normal flight operations.
Bangkok Floods Drag on SET; Brokers Point to 3 Stock Themes Set to Benefit After Waters Recede
Flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces is weighing on the Thai stock market in the short term. Piriyaphon Kongwanich, a strategist at BLS Wealth Research of Bualuang Securities, estimates preliminary damage of roughly 10 billion to 30 billion baht and expects only a limited impact on gross domestic product and listed-company earnings. He flagged stocks that may draw interest, including HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and ILM, with the research team upgrading GLOBAL and DOHOME to speculative buy while keeping buy ratings on HMPRO and ILM. Thaweethak Taweethiratham, an executive director at Asia Plus Securities, assesses the overall impact as still limited and short-lived, with building materials benefiting from demand to repair homes, while retail, hospitals and food also have support. Sectors to watch for indirect effects include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture and commercial banks, while tourism, property and hire-purchase lending have already begun to feel negative effects. InnovestX Securities sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, noting that in past cases of short flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET typically fell an average of about 0.6%, or 10 points, on the first day before turning positive within a week. It recommends a buy-on-dip strategy in domestic-play stocks through three themes: Recovery & Repair, comprising HMPRO, GLOBAL and DCC; Consumer Staples & Stockpiling, comprising CPALL, BJC and CRC; and Fast Recovery, comprising CENTEL, ERW, BDMS and BCH. The sector warranting added caution is insurance, given the risk that the loss ratio will rise from the damage incurred.
HMPRO.BK · Demand · Positive HMPRO is named among stocks to benefit from post-flood home repair demand and is kept at buy by BLS, and included in InnovestX's Recovery & Repair theme.
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive Upgraded to speculative buy by BLS and cited as a building-materials beneficiary of home-repair demand after the floods.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Positive Upgraded to speculative buy by BLS and cited as a building-materials play on post-flood repair demand.
BDMS.BK · Demand · Positive Listed in InnovestX's Fast Recovery theme, expected to benefit as flood-hit consumers resume hospital services.
BJC.BK · Demand · Positive Named in InnovestX's Consumer Staples & Stockpiling theme, seen benefiting from flood-related stockpiling demand.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Included in InnovestX's Fast Recovery theme, expected to rebound as tourism/hotel activity normalizes after waters recede.
TTBWEALTH Picks 8 Stocks to Benefit from Flooding, Highlighting Retail and Construction Materials
TTBWEALTH Public Company Limited, or TTBWEALTH, assesses that this round of flooding will have a limited impact on the economy, as it is short-term and severe only in certain areas, unlike the 2011 event that flooded many areas and lasted several weeks to several months. In the short term, some stocks have gained both positive and negative sentiment. The groups benefiting positively include consumer goods retail, led by CPALL, CPAXT and CRC, as well as the home improvement and construction materials group, which is expected to benefit from demand for home repairs after the water recedes, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA and TASCO. Meanwhile, the groups affected negatively include insurance, such as TIPH, and tourism, namely AOT, ERW and CENTEL. In addition, several listed companies have updated the situation. DELTA reported that some areas were flooded but machinery and factories were not damaged, and operations returned to normal today after production lines were halted last Sunday. CENTEL had only some hotels affected, such as the Lat Phrao area where water entered the lobby, and the Pattaya zone, with a small number of customer cancellations. Its food business saw some sales decline from temporary store closures, but overall the impact is considered limited. MINT stated that most of its hotels are not in flood zones, its properties were not damaged, and it continues to operate normally. CPN confirmed that no shopping centers were closed, though it may be affected by a decline in customer traffic during the floods, and it expects no rental discounts to be offered.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Resilient Buildings & Retrofit ▲Demand
Climate Adaptation & Water › Property/Casualty & Reinsurance Underwriting ▼Demand
AOT.BK · Demand · Negative AOT is listed among tourism groups negatively affected by the flooding as travel demand weakens.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Negative CENTEL had hotels hit by flooding (Lat Phrao lobby, Pattaya) with customer cancellations and food sales declines from store closures.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive CPALL is named a consumer-goods retail beneficiary as flooding drives stock-up demand.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive CPAXT is named a consumer-goods retail beneficiary expected to gain from flood-related demand.
CRC.BK · Demand · Positive CPALL/CPAXT/CRC named among consumer goods retail stocks expected to benefit from flooding-driven demand.
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive DOHOME named in home improvement/construction materials group expected to benefit from post-flood home repair demand.
DBS Vickers assesses flood winners and losers across 25 provinces, 128 districts
DBS Vickers has issued an analysis assessing the impact on Thai stocks from the flood situation in Thailand, which still requires close monitoring, after heavy to very heavy rainfall and water masses from the North flowing into the Central region caused flooding in 25 provinces covering 128 districts. Bangkok and its vicinity faced continuous heavy rain from 25–27 September 2026, causing flooding in many areas. Most recently, rainfall has tended to decrease but repeated rain still needs monitoring, and drainage will take about 1–2 days. The government therefore declared Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, and Samut Prakan special public holidays on 28–29 September to ease the impact and reduce travel by the public. The research team assesses that the short-term impact on the SET Index comes from negative sentiment toward economic activity, but the impact on operating results is expected to be limited. Stocks expected to benefit include the Home Improvement group such as HMPRO, GLOBAL, and DOHOME, whose short-term impact from rain and flooding pressured traffic, but a boost is expected to begin in 4Q26E after the water recedes from repair and home restoration demand, as well as NEO, which derives 100% of total revenue from consumer products, with a target price of 31.00 baht. Meanwhile, TFMAMA benefits from consumers stockpiling more goods during the floods, and TASCO benefits from road repairs after the water recedes. Stocks expected to be negatively affected include the Ground Transport group such as BEM and BTS, which may see short-term impacts on ridership, with expressway tolls waived until 29 September at 24.00. The impact is seen as limited because the Expressway Authority of Thailand will compensate the companies. The tourism group ERW, CENTEL, AAV, and AOT is seen as slightly negative and a short-term impact. The Energy group such as OR and PTG is expected to see a slight negative impact on downstream energy stocks, with total daily retail oil sales volumes of OR and PTG at approximately 29.4 million and 15.8 million liters in 2Q26, and the number of service stations in the Central, Eastern, and Western regions for OR and PTG at approximately 45% and 37% of total service stations. Meanwhile, the insurance group TIPH, TVH, MTI, BKI, and AYUD is affected by flood compensation payouts. The Commerce group such as CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC continues to see rain and flooding pressure traffic, with some branches in urban areas temporarily closed, but stockpiling of essential goods helps offset some of the impact.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Resilient Buildings & Retrofit ▲Demand
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive DBS Vickers names DOHOME as a home-improvement beneficiary expected to gain from repair and home restoration demand after the flood water recedes in 4Q26E.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Positive GLOBAL is cited as a home-improvement winner set to benefit from post-flood repair and home restoration demand starting 4Q26E.
HMPRO.BK · Demand · Positive HMPRO is named among home-improvement beneficiaries expected to see a boost from repair and restoration demand once the water recedes.
NEO.BK · Demand · Positive NEO is highlighted as a beneficiary deriving 100% of revenue from consumer products, with a 31.00 baht target price, as consumers stockpile goods during the floods.
BEM.BK · Demand · Negative BEM is named in the Ground Transport group expected to see short-term impacts on ridership from the flooding.
BTS.BK · Demand · Negative BTS is named in the Ground Transport group expected to see short-term impacts on ridership from the flooding.
Asia Plus says tourism stocks face limited impact from Bangkok floods, recommends CENTEL
Asia Plus Securities assesses that although flooding in Bangkok has caused flight delays, major airports Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang remain open and operating normally, while inner Bangkok and key destinations such as Chiang Mai, Phuket, and Samui remain safe. If the situation eases quickly, the impact on travel during the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027, which is the tourism high season, will be limited. The Middle East situation remains the main factor shaping the direction of the tourism sector. For CENTEL, Thailand accounts for about 60% of hotel revenue, split between Bangkok at 22% and the provinces at 38%, which helps cushion the impact of the floods. Its restaurant business has about 34% of restaurant revenue in Bangkok, with average restaurant sales in Bangkok at roughly 12 million baht per day, and every single day that sales are hit by 30% to 50% would affect quarterly sales by only 0.1% to 0.2%. ERW says its Lux to Eco hotels, which account for 74% of revenue, remain open as normal, with about 54% of revenue in Bangkok, while Hop Inn, which accounts for 26% of revenue, has some branches affected but mostly in the provinces. MINT derives about 50% of revenue from hotels in the EU, so it faces a more limited fundamental impact. The research team maintains its view that normal profits for AOT and Thai hotel operators for the October to December period will expand both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing through the January to March 2027 period in line with the tourism season. Although the market may open risk-off in the short term, the effect on earnings forecasts remains limited. It still favours CENTEL, followed by AOT, while ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy after its share price fell 12% year to date versus the SET's gain of 28%. If jet fuel rises above its previous peak in April at 209 US dollars per barrel and affects flight capacity, that would be a tactical trigger to consider reducing weightings in the tourism sector.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Asia Plus favors CENTEL, noting its diversified Bangkok/provincial hotel and restaurant mix cushions flood impact and Q4 earnings should still expand.
ERW.BK · Demand · Neutral ERW's Lux to Eco hotels remain open but some Hop Inn branches are affected; flagged only as an event trade.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive Research team maintains normal profits for AOT will expand QoQ and YoY through the tourism high season despite Bangkok floods.
MINT.BK · Demand · Positive MINT derives about 50% of hotel revenue from the EU, so it faces a more limited fundamental impact from the Bangkok floods.
THAI.BK · Capital · Neutral THAI is called a tactical buy after its share price fell 12% year to date, with no company-specific operational development cited.
Brokers say 'Nene Royal' buzz boosts Phuket; hotel stocks gain from high season, recommend accumulating AWC, CENTEL, ERW
Analysts view the buzz around 'Nene Royal', or Ms. Rattikan Amloy from Phuket province, who won season 21 of America's Got Talent, as helping build global recognition and drawing tourists to Phuket and lifting Thailand's overall tourism during this year-end travel season. Mr. Puwadon Pusodngern, an investment strategist in the research department at Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited, told 'Than Hoon' that Phuket's tourist arrival statistics were already growing well and ranked among the top in the country before the Nene Royal phenomenon, so it further strengthens this area. For hotel and tourism stocks with a customer base in Phuket, AWC is recommended with a fundamental target price of 4 baht, supported by advance bookings that lift profit through the first quarter of 2026 and a Phuket hotel portfolio that suits high-purchasing-power customers. CENTEL has a fundamental target price of 49 baht, benefiting from a low profit base that is ready to recover, and ERW has a fundamental target price of 4.50 baht, gaining less value benefit than AWC and CENTEL because it relies mainly on tourist numbers. The strategy recommends gradual accumulation. Meanwhile, CRC has a fundamental target price of 34 baht, supported directly by higher tourist spending, in line with an analysis by Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, which holds a positive view on Thailand's tourism group, citing a recovering short-haul market, an upcycle in average room rates, a recovery in MICE spending led by China, and undemanding share prices. It prefers AWC over ERW and MINT given stronger earnings-per-share growth prospects.
AWC.BK · Demand · Positive Recommended with a 4 baht target, supported by advance bookings lifting profit through Q1 2026 and a Phuket hotel portfolio suited to high-purchasing-power tourists.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Recommended with a 49 baht target, benefiting from a low profit base ready to recover amid the high-season tourism boost.
ERW.BK · Demand · Positive Recommended with a 4.50 baht target, though it gains less benefit than AWC and CENTEL because it relies mainly on tourist numbers.
CRC.BK · Demand · Positive Has a 34 baht target, supported directly by higher tourist spending as Thailand's tourism group recovers.
MINT.BK · Competition · Neutral Only mentioned as a peer that Maybank prefers AWC over, with no company-specific development discussed.
InnovestX recommends 9 stocks benefiting from tourism in Q4 2026 through H1 2027
Analysts at InnovestX Securities have released a list of 9 standout stocks set to benefit from the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector, along with a strategy of timing purchases for trading gains. They see Thailand entering the full swing of the tourism high season in the fourth quarter of 2026, starting with China's Golden Week from October 1-7, 2026, followed by European travellers escaping the cold and the Christmas-New Year festival. Meanwhile, 2026 also has upside from hosting world-class events, namely the World Bank-IMF meetings from October 12-18 in Bangkok, which are expected to draw 15,000-18,000 participants, and the Tomorrowland Thailand 2026 music festival from December 11-13 in Chonburi province, which is estimated to attract more than 15,000 attendees, over 85% of them foreign tourists. Based on historical statistics, the number of foreign tourists in the fourth quarter typically recovers significantly from the third quarter, with overall growth of 10% and 17% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to grow close to or better than the previous year, driven by a tourist mix of mass tourism and high-spending MICE groups, which will significantly boost per-capita spending. The positive momentum is expected to extend into the first half of 2027, thanks to the Chinese New Year festival in the first quarter of 2027 and the Songkran festival coupled with the Thai Tiew Thai Plus measure expected to begin in April 2027 in the second quarter of 2027. The investment strategy therefore recommends timing purchases for trading gains in two main groups: stocks that benefit directly from foreign tourists' travel and stays in Thailand, namely the tourism group AOT, ERW, CENTEL and MINT, and stocks that benefit indirectly through increased consumer goods spending, namely the commerce group CPALL, CRC and CPN, and the beverage group HTC and ICHI.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a direct tourism beneficiary from increased foreign tourist travel and stays in Thailand in Q4 2026 through H1 2027.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a direct tourism beneficiary from foreign tourists' travel and stays in Thailand during the high season.
ERW.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a direct tourism beneficiary from foreign tourists' travel and stays in Thailand during the high season.
MINT.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a direct tourism beneficiary from foreign tourists' travel and stays in Thailand during the high season.
Dao expects SET to trade sideways, recommends buying PTTEP with a target of 180 baht
Dao Securities (Thailand) expects the SET Index to trade sideways today after the investment mood came under pressure once again from bond yields, along with rising oil prices. It estimates support at 1,600-1,605 points and resistance at 1,614-1,618 points, and sees energy stocks potentially attracting buying back. Meanwhile, US stocks closed lower after bond yields surged again, while oil prices rebounded strongly after Trump's speech at the UN, in which he gave Iran a choice between negotiating or letting the US wipe it out completely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded without backing down, but stressed that Iran is always ready for diplomatic talks if they are equal and do not use threatening language or force. As for the main strategy, Dao sees the market possibly pulling back but views it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate Mega Play Theme stocks such as Data Center and power plants, and still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks also remain attractive, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium-to-long-term tourism recovery theme, it still likes AOT, CENTEL and ERW. The top pick today is PTTEP, supported by the short-term crude oil price outlook after Iran's president said at the UN that Iran will not allow free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US sanctions remain in effect. Brent crude closed up 3.9% yesterday at 103.1 US dollars per barrel. Buy, target price 180.00 baht. Also AOT, which will benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects that during China's long holiday from 25 September to 7 October 2026, which covers both the Mid-Autumn Festival and China's National Day holiday, 250,000 Chinese tourists will come to Thailand, up 24% YoY. It also estimates normal profit in 4QFY26E will grow well both YoY and QoQ from the gradual recovery in international passengers and the first full quarter of recognition of the new PSC rate. Buy, target price 72.00 baht. The top picks on technical signals are PTTEP and CCET.
PTTEP.BK · Capital · Positive Dao's top pick with a Buy rating and 180 baht target, backed by the short-term crude oil price outlook.
PTTEP.BK · Supply · Positive Iran's threat to block Strait of Hormuz navigation under US sanctions supports crude prices, lifting PTTEP's oil-linked prospects.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive AOT expected to benefit from strong growth in flights and passengers during China's Golden Week, with 250,000 Chinese tourists forecast to visit Thailand.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive Dao Securities lists KBANK among banking stocks it still likes as attractive.
KKP.BK · Capital · Positive Dao Securities lists KKP among banking stocks it still likes as attractive.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Dao Securities lists KTB among banking stocks it still likes as attractive.
Bualuang Securities maintains Buy on CENTEL with 49 baht target, says 3Q26 marks the bottom before recovery in 2027
Bualuang Securities issued an IDEA Call on CENTEL, maintaining a Buy recommendation with a target price of 49 baht, viewing CENTEL as a stock that stands to benefit greatly from the recovery in 2027 after pressure from Dubai, the Maldives, Japan, and Thai hotels under renovation is likely to ease simultaneously. It assesses that 3Q26 will probably be the weakest quarter before momentum clearly improves from 4Q26 through 1Q27. The research team states that its 2027 profit estimate still has upside from the base case of 2.54 billion baht because it does not yet assume a full recovery. It expects Dubai to post a loss of about 100 million baht in 2026 before returning to breakeven in 2027, the Maldives to move from a loss of about 200 million baht toward breakeven, and Japan to stop being a drag after the ADR base from the Expo is revised down. Meanwhile, the Hua Hin and Krabi hotels return to full-year revenue recognition after renovations are completed, with the opportunity to raise ADR by at least 10% after repositioning, which together has the potential to restore about 350 million baht in profit. If the recovery is fuller than the base case, 2027 profit could rise to about 2.73 billion baht, or roughly 7.5% upside to profit, supporting a sensitivity-based target price near 52 baht. Recovery signals are becoming clearer, with August RevPAR for the portfolio up 3-4% year on year, led by Thailand up 12% year on year and the Maldives up 30% year on year, while Dubai declined to about -20% year on year from -61% year on year in 2Q26 and Japan declined to -30% year on year from -46% year on year in 2Q26, reflecting pressure concentrated in only some areas. In addition, the share of long-haul customers at Bangkok hotels rose from about 32% in 2019 to 46% in the first eight months of 2026, with revenue from Russian, Chinese, and Israeli customers in the first half of 2026 growing 24%, 39%, and 43% year on year respectively. Customers from the UK, Germany, and the United States remain below normal levels, so there is still upside if these markets recover further. As of June 2026, there were 52 operating hotels with 11,394 rooms and a pipeline of 40 hotels with 8,507 rooms, most of which are managed hotels, helping growth after 2027 avoid relying solely on the recovery of the existing hotel cycle.
CENTEL.BK · Capital · Positive Bualuang Securities maintains Buy on CENTEL with a 49 baht target price, citing 3Q26 as the bottom before a 2027 recovery.
Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand rebound 5.7%, favouring CENTEL and AOT over the sector
Foreign tourists arriving in Thailand during 13–19 September 2026 totalled 464,200, beginning a seasonal recovery of 5.7% from the previous week ahead of the high season. Short-haul arrivals came to 324,816, up 8.6% week on week, while long-haul arrivals were 139,384, down 0.4% week on week. The recovery was led by Malaysian tourists at 69,255, up 29.1% on Malaysia Day, and Japanese tourists at 30,494, up 55.4% ahead of Silver Week, while Chinese tourists numbered 66,151, up 1.2%, and Russian tourists 19,531, up 7.6%. On forward bookings for Golden Week, Trip.com signalled positive momentum after Chinese tourists' flight bookings to Phuket rose 78% from a year earlier, supported by the long holiday combining the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week, which is likely to see Chinese tourists start travelling from 25 September. The research team at Asia Plus Securities views the Phuket flight bookings as a positive signal for AOT's international passenger numbers, particularly at Phuket airport, which accounts for about 12% of AOT's revenue. Among hotel groups with a high share of revenue from Phuket, CENTEL leads with about 15% of hotel revenue, followed by ERW at about 9% of hotel revenue, while MINT's main revenue share lies in the EU. The research team continues to emphasise investment in Thai tourism, favouring CENTEL followed by AOT, whose earnings momentum in 2027 looks stronger than the sector's. ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy tracking the direction of Brent crude, after the share price fell 14% this year against a 27% rise in the SET, which the team sees as having largely priced in the negatives. It estimates that AOT's normal profit, as well as that of Thai hotel groups, will expand in the October-to-December period both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing into the January-to-March 2027 period as the peak season arrives along with major events during Chinese New Year.
DBS Vickers Securities Thailand expects SET to test a hold above 1,600 points on electronics buying
DBS Vickers Securities Thailand estimates that the SET index today has a chance to hold above the 1,600-point level, driven by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices may pressure energy stocks into selling. It sees support at 1,584-1,592 points and resistance at 1,604-1,610 points. It also noted that investors are still watching the Trump-Xi meeting. In the U.S. market, stocks rose sharply led by AI names such as Meta, and WTI crude fell below 100 U.S. dollars, pushing bond yields to close below 5%, which is expected to support buying in beneficiary groups such as data centers and power plants. It continues to favor GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banks remain resilient given lingering uncertainty, so it still favors KTB, KBANK and KKP. Over the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks such as AOT, CENTEL and ERW. For today's top pick, it recommends CPALL, estimating 2026E profit at 33 billion baht, up 18% year on year, supported by 700 new branch openings and product mix, with a target price of 63.00 baht. Its technical picks are BGRIM and STECON.
Dao flags US bond yield below 5% as catalyst for nine top picks: GPSC, BGRIM, ADVANC, KTB, KBANK, KKP, AOT, CENTEL, ERW
Dao Securities expects the Thai stock market on September 22, 2026, to see the SET Index attempt to hold above 1,600 points, helped by buying in electronics stocks, while falling oil prices could pressure energy shares with selling. The investment mood has improved again, and investors are watching the meeting between Trump and Xi. In the US market, stocks rose sharply, especially AI-related names led by META, and with WTI oil falling below 100 dollars per barrel, the US bond yield closed below 5%, supporting the investment climate. Fitch Ratings announced on September 18 that it had revised Thailand's credit outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the rating at BBB+, a supportive factor for the market. The SET opened the morning up more than 9 to 13 points, testing 1,600 points, with buying concentrated mainly in banking and financial stocks. Dao Securities' main strategy states that a US bond yield closing below 5% will draw buying into stocks that benefit from lower bond yields under the Mega Play theme, such as data centers and power plants, and it still likes GPSC, BGRIM and ADVANC. Banking stocks should be resilient amid lingering uncertainty, and it still likes KTB, KBANK and KKP. For the medium to long term, it still likes tourism stocks, namely AOT, CENTEL and ERW.
SET September earnings estimates revised up 0.7%, boosted by energy and petrochemicals
September earnings estimates for the SET were revised up a further 0.7% month on month and 15.6% since the start of the year, driven mainly by sectors benefiting from higher energy and commodity prices. Petrochemicals led the way with a 6.2% month-on-month increase, as PTTGC rose 13% and IVL gained 7%. The energy sector rose 1.8%, led by refiners BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, which lifted the estimate for sector heavyweight PTT by a further 2%. The agricultural sector rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA's earnings estimate revised up 26%. However, the upward revisions are no longer as broad-based as before: fuel station operators PTG fell 26% and OR dropped 4%, while power plant groups SPP, BGRIM and GPSC slipped 2% and 1% respectively. In real estate, LH fell 1% and ORI dropped 13%, reflecting a growing divergence in earnings estimate trends between sectors and individual companies. Stocks still seeing upward revisions included AWC up 8%, CENTEL up 5%, BJC up 4%, CRC up 3%, AMATA up 8% and GUNKUL up 2%.
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Natural Gas Value Chain ▲Pricing
Energy Transition & Power Demand › Nuclear Generation & Utilities ▼Pricing
PTTGC.BK · Pricing · Positive PTTGC's September earnings estimate was revised up 13% on higher energy and commodity prices, boosting petrochemical margins.
SPRC.BK · Pricing · Positive SPRC's earnings estimate rose 9% as a refiner benefiting from higher energy prices.
STA.BK · Pricing · Positive STA's earnings estimate was revised up 26% on higher rubber prices.
LH.BK · Capital · Negative LH's September earnings estimate was revised down 1%, reflecting divergence in earnings trends.
OR.BK · Capital · Negative OR's earnings estimate was revised down 4% as upward revisions became less broad-based.
ORI.BK · Capital · Negative ORI's earnings estimate dropped 13% in real estate, showing sector divergence.
Bualuang raises Thai stock market profit target, highlights 8 standout stocks CRC, AMATA, GUNKUL as energy beneficiaries
Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised up its earnings estimate for the Thai stock market in September by 0.7% month-on-month and 15.6% since the start of the year. Piriyapon Kongwanich, Director of Investment Analysis for Wealth Management, said the main driver came from groups benefiting from energy and commodity prices amid prolonged wars. The petrochemical group was raised 6.2% month-on-month, led by PTTGC up 13% and IVL up 7%, while the energy group rose 1.8% on refineries BCP up 26%, TOP up 10% and SPRC up 9%, pushing PTT up another 2%. The agricultural group rose 2.1% on higher rubber prices, with STA raised 26%. On the other side, groups whose costs are linked to energy prices were revised down, led by PTG down 26% and OR down 4%, as well as SPP power plants such as BGRIM down 2% and GPSC down 1%. Meanwhile, businesses sensitive to the economy such as property, LH down 1% and ORI down 13%, also faced downgrades. This reflects a clearer divergence in earnings direction between industry groups and individual companies. The strategy therefore focuses on Earnings Leaders with strong profits. CRC is expected to post core profit growth of 25 to 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026 from same-store sales growth of around 2% and revenue growth of about 4% year-on-year. CBG is supported by domestic energy drink sales growing 10% year-on-year. BH and BDMS are entering a seasonal profit recovery period. AOT, AWC and CENTEL benefit from tourism entering the high season, with AOT's winter slots from October 2026 to March 2027 up 4% year-on-year and AWC's RevPAR in July to August up 23% year-on-year, while CENTEL rose 5 to 6% year-on-year. AMATA is supported by data center demand adding clarity to profits, and GUNKUL benefits from a recovery in wind power plants along with investment opportunities in transmission systems.
Fitch Upgrades Thailand's Outlook to Stable, Highlights KTB and KBANK as Top Picks on Positive Sentiment
Asia Plus Securities said Fitch Ratings raised Thailand's credit outlook to Stable from Negative while affirming the rating at BBB+. One of the reasons cited was the stability of the government. As a result, the country's outlook from all three credit rating agencies is now at Stable, which not only reflects confidence in Thailand but also reduces the risk of a downgrade in the next period. For commercial banks whose outlooks Fitch downgraded last year in line with its view on Thailand, namely KTB and TTB, there is a chance their outlooks will be raised to Stable in line with Thailand in the next step, making their share prices likely to receive more positive sentiment than the sector. Political stability is reflected in the passage of two financial laws: the emergency decree authorizing 400 billion baht in borrowing, which passed by a vote of 285 to 141, and the 2027 budget bill, which passed by a vote of 338 to 144. These help ensure money continues to flow into the economy and reduce policy uncertainty. The research team is maintaining a Barbell strategy, choosing KTB followed by KBANK on the commercial banking side, while BBL is a catch-up play on valuation at a PBV of 0.6 times versus 1.2 times for the sector. On the other side is the tourism group, focusing on CENTEL, AOT, and ERW, with upside expected if the war eases.
KTB.BK · Capital · Positive Top pick; Fitch's Thailand outlook upgrade raises the chance KTB's own outlook is lifted to Stable.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Positive Chosen as a top commercial-banking pick (after KTB) on positive sentiment from Thailand's outlook upgrade.
BBL.BK · Capital · Positive Named as a catch-up play on valuation at 0.6x PBV versus 1.2x for the sector, a valuation/analyst call.
TTB.BK · Monetary · Positive Fitch upgraded Thailand's outlook to Stable, and TTB, whose outlook Fitch downgraded last year in line with Thailand, may see its own outlook raised to Stable, boosting sentiment.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Listed in the tourism group (CENTEL) with upside expected if the war eases, an end-demand driver.
ERW.BK · Demand · Positive Listed in the tourism group (ERW) with upside expected if the war eases, an end-demand driver.
DELTA drags Thai stocks below 1,600 points after $1.5 billion convertible bond
The Thai stock market swung lower and fell below the 1,600-point level during September 14-18, 2026, with DELTA the main stock weighing on the index after its parent company issued a $1.5 billion convertible bond exchangeable into DELTA shares. The conversion price was set at a premium of 15-20% for a one-year tenor, equivalent to 289-302 baht, and 30-40% for a five-year tenor, equivalent to 327-353 baht. As a result, bondholders short-sold the shares to reduce price risk. The bond was split into a one-year tranche worth $500 million and a five-year tranche worth $1.0 billion, issued by Delta of Taiwan to fund business expansion. Meanwhile, the Fed meeting raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, as the market expected, and the Dot Plot projected rates at 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027. Tourism-related stocks AOT, MINT and CENTEL were pressured by the delay of the Thai Tiew Thai Plus measure from late 2026 to 2027. Oil and refinery stocks TOP, SPRC and BCP were pressured by an announcement in the Royal Gazette cutting the ex-refinery price for high-speed diesel by 4.00 baht per litre, from a previous reduction of 2.40 baht per litre. Banking stocks KBANK, KTB and BBL, along with insurers BLA and TLI, rose on expectations that interest rates are on an upward trend.
DELTA.BK · Capital · Negative Parent Delta of Taiwan issued a $1.5B convertible bond exchangeable into DELTA shares, prompting bondholder short-selling that dragged the stock and index below 1,600.
KBANK.BK · Monetary · Positive KBANK rose on expectations that interest rates are on an upward trend after the Fed hiked 25bp.
KTB.BK · Monetary · Positive KTB rose on expectations that interest rates are on an upward trend after the Fed hiked 25bp.
MINT.BK · Regulation · Negative MINT was pressured by the delay of the Thai Tiew Thai Plus tourism measure from late 2026 to 2027.
SPRC.BK · Pricing · Negative SPRC was pressured by the Royal Gazette cut of the ex-refinery price for high-speed diesel by 4.00 baht per litre.
TOP.BK · Pricing · Negative Thai Oil pressured by the Royal Gazette cut in the ex-refinery price for high-speed diesel by 4.00 baht per litre.
Pi Securities expects SET to trade in 1570-1595 range, highlights Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation
Pi Securities estimates the SET index today will move in a range of 1570 to 1595, viewing Non Bank stocks as attractive for accumulation again on expectations of lower yields ahead. It names stocks in this group including MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR. Meanwhile, US stock markets closed higher, with the DJIA up 0.61% and the S&P 500 up 1.14%, after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled it may hike once more this year. Brent crude fell to around 104 to 105 dollars per barrel after Middle East concerns eased somewhat and Saudi Arabia said it would resume oil exports, helping push the US 10-year yield and 30-year yield lower. On US economic data released overnight, initial jobless claims came in at about 196,000, below market expectations. For short-term strategy, it recommends TECH names including DELTA and KCE after the Kospi rose about 2.5% this morning, as well as the tourism group including AOT, MINT, CENTEL, AWC, CPALL, CPN and HMPRO, and the hospital group including BDMS, BCH and PR9.
Brokers say Thailand Travel Thailand Plus likely delayed to April 2027, hitting hotel stocks short-term but an upside for next year
Two brokers assess that the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus scheme is likely to be pushed back from October 1, 2026 to around April 2027, because private-sector surveys, especially among hotel businesses, found that running the scheme during high season yields no added benefit since rooms are already full and tourists have already planned their trips in advance. The research team at DAOL Securities (Thailand) sees this as negative sentiment for the tourism group, because it prompts tourists to postpone their travel, but the delay to April 2027 should help the hotel group more since it begins to enter the low season. The scheme still keeps its budget framework of 4 billion baht, with 1 million entitlements, government support of 1,500 baht per night for accommodation, up to 5 nights, plus digital co-payment coupons on a 50-50 basis, split into 1,500 baht per day for main cities and 2,000 baht per day for secondary cities. The stocks receiving the most negative sentiment, in descending order of their domestic hotel exposure, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. DAOL gives the tourism group an overweight rating versus the market, and likes CENTEL with a target price of 48.00 baht, from July to August 2026 RevPAR excluding Dubai rising 8% year on year and third-quarter 2026 on-the-book up 8% year on year, with Thailand up 13% year on year, the Maldives up 35% year on year, but Japan down 12% year on year and Dubai down 25% year on year. Meanwhile, fourth-quarter 2026 on-the-book RevPAR rises by double-digit growth year on year, from Thailand at 13% year on year, the Maldives at 40% year on year and Japan at 18% year on year. Fourth-quarter 2026 profit is expected to recover strongly, with the stock trading at an EV/EBITDA of only 13 times, equivalent to minus 0.50 standard deviations over the past 8 years. It also likes ERW with a target price of 4.20 baht, from third-quarter 2026 on-the-book RevPAR growing another roughly 5% year on year off a low base, while the fourth quarter of 2026 has events such as the World Bank and IMF meetings in October 2026 and Tomorrowland in December 2026, which have seen bookings continue to rise, with occupancy already as high as 80%. It currently trades at a PER of 20 times, against an average of about 25 times. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities sees the scheme's delay pushing back the positive catalyst for the hotel group, but it does not affect 2026 profit forecasts because the research team had not yet included it in estimates, and the stronger-than-expected recovery in RevPAR and on-the-book in the second half of 2026, at 25-30% year on year, offsets it. Moreover, the delay of the scheme to the low season of 2027 could create upside for 2027 profit, so it maintains a bullish stance on hotel stocks and picks AWC with a target price of 3.90 baht and ERW with a target price of 4.20 baht as top picks, as they benefit most from the recovery in the domestic hotel business.
CENTEL.BK · Regulation · Negative Named among hotel stocks with most negative sentiment from the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus scheme delay to April 2027.
ERW.BK · Regulation · Negative Named as the stock with the most negative sentiment from the delay of the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus scheme.
MINT.BK · Regulation · Negative Named among hotel stocks hit by negative sentiment from the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus scheme delay.
SHR.BK · Regulation · Negative Named among hotel stocks with negative sentiment from the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus scheme delay.
InnovestX Unveils 4 Standout Stock Themes as SET Slips Below 1,600 Points
InnovestX Securities Company Limited expects the Thai stock market to remain volatile and has unveiled four standout stock themes to navigate the SET Index falling below 1,600 points. It estimates support at 1,580 and 1,575 points, with resistance at 1,605 and 1,610 points, and recommends a Selective Buy strategy focused on accumulating shares as prices decline. The first theme covers defensive stocks and high-dividend stocks expected to deliver consistent dividend yields above 5% per year, namely BBL, KTB, HMPRO, AP, SCCC and PTT. The second theme covers stocks benefiting from global economic factors and high bond yields. In the energy group it picks PTTEP, BCP, TOP and SPRC, while in shipping it selects PSL and TTA. High bond yields are a positive factor for banks, namely KTB, BBL and KBANK, as well as life insurers BLA and TLI, after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5% for the first time in nearly three years. The third theme covers stocks benefiting from government policy, namely GULF, GUNKUL, AMATA and WHA, on progress with the draft PDP2026 plan and policies supporting rooftop solar, while STECON, CK and SCCC fall in the construction and construction materials group. As for economic stimulus measures, CPALL, CPAXT and BJC are seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus program, while CPALL, CRC, ERW, CENTEL and AOT are supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus program. DELTA, HANA and KCE fall under the theme of promoting investment in data centers and artificial intelligence. The final theme covers laggard stocks, namely AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR, whose second-half 2026 earnings are expected to grow both year on year and compared with the first half of the year.
AMATA.BK · Regulation · Positive Named as a stock benefiting from government policy on the draft PDP2026 plan and rooftop solar support.
AOT.BK · Regulation · Positive Listed among stocks supported by the Thai Tiew Thai Plus economic stimulus program.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive Selected as a bank benefiting from high bond yields after the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5%, and also cited for dividend yield above 5%.
AP.BK · Regulation · Positive Named in both the high-dividend defensive theme and the laggard theme on expected H2 2026 earnings growth.
BCH.BK · Capital · Positive Included in the laggard theme on expectations its second-half 2026 earnings will grow year on year and versus H1.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive Seen benefiting from the extension of the Thai Chai Thai Plus and Thai Tiew Thai Plus stimulus programs.
Dao Securities says tourism has bottomed out, recommends ERW, CENTEL, MINT, SHR
Dao Securities assesses that tourist numbers have already hit their lowest point in 2Q26E and will recover prominently in 4Q26E, driven by China's National Day in October and several events in December 2026. Foreign tourist arrivals in the latest week of September 6-12 stood at 439,069, down 7% week-on-week and 22% year-on-year, or an average of 62,724 per day. The markets posting the biggest declines were Malaysia at 53,638 (-28% WoW/-63% YoY), China at 65,380 (-10% WoW/-2% YoY), and Japan at 19,628 (-5% WoW), while Russia at 18,154 (+4% WoW/+7% YoY) and India at 39,857 (+2% WoW/-26% YoY) still rose. Dao Securities estimates total tourist arrivals for 2026E at 32 million, down 3% YoY from 33 million in 2025, and Chinese tourists for 2026E at 4.8 million, up 7% YoY from 4.5 million in 2025. Cumulative arrivals from January 1 to September 12, 2026 stood at 21.72 million, down 3.38% YoY. Dao Securities assigns an "overweight" investment rating to the tourism sector. It favours CENTEL (Buy/target 48.00 baht) on RevPAR for July-August 2026 excluding Dubai rising 8% YoY and 4Q26E on-the-book growth in double digits YoY, and favours ERW (Buy/target 4.20 baht) on 3Q26E on-the-book RevPAR growth of around 5% YoY with occupancy already as high as 80%. The stocks that benefit, ranked by proportion of domestic hotels from highest to lowest, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT, SHR.
Kasikorn Thai says Nihao Month 2026 boosts tourism stocks ahead of China's Golden Week
Kasikorn Securities said the Tourism Authority of Thailand is pressing ahead with the Nihao Month 2026 project to stimulate the Chinese tourist market during Golden Week and continuing into the low season. It expects about 250,000 Chinese tourists between September 25 and October 7, 2026, up 24% year on year, generating 11.5 billion baht in revenue, up 37% year on year. Advance bookings for October rose 16% and flight searches increased 24%, reflecting the recovery trend in the Chinese market. The brokerage views this as positive for tourism, hotels, airports, retail and airlines, such as AOT, CENTEL, ERW and AWC, given the likely rise in tourist numbers and spending.
DAOL Picks CENTEL and ERW to Ride Q4 Tourism High Season as Airlines Rush to Open New Routes
DAOL Securities (Thailand), or DAOL, is overweight the tourism sector, taking a positive view of the fourth-quarter high season on expectations that tourist numbers will rise significantly. The main driver comes from airlines gradually opening new routes and adding flights between October and December 2026 and continuing through April 2027, mostly direct flights from the United States and Europe to Bangkok, Krabi and Phuket. Between October and December, about 10 airlines are preparing to launch new routes to Thailand, including LOT Polish Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, Belavia, Lufthansa, SAS Scandinavian Airlines and Vietjet. This is in line with data from the Tourism Authority of Thailand, which plans to stimulate the market in the final four months of the year with major events and festivals to push total Thai tourism revenue in 2026 to 2.7 trillion baht and lift foreign arrivals to the target of 33 million. The research team estimates that the stocks benefiting most, ranked by the share of domestic hotels from high to low, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. For 2026, total foreign arrivals are forecast at 32 million, down 3% from a year earlier, while Chinese tourists are expected at 4.8 million, up 7% from a year earlier. On investment strategy, DAOL recommends buying CENTEL with a target price of 48.00 baht, supported by revenue per available room, or RevPAR, rising 8% year on year in July and August, while third-quarter advance bookings rose 8% year on year and fourth-quarter advance bookings grew at a double-digit pace year on year, leading it to expect a standout recovery in fourth-quarter earnings. The stock currently trades at an EV/EBITDA of just 13 times. It also recommends buying ERW with a target price of 4.20 baht, benefiting from third-quarter advance bookings with RevPAR expected to grow about 5% year on year from a low base, while the fourth quarter brings global events such as the World Bank and IMF meetings in October and the Tomorrowland music festival in December, driving a steady stream of bookings that has already pushed occupancy as high as 80%. The stock currently trades at a PER of 20 times, below its average of about 25 times.
Asia Plus says Thai aviation and hotel stocks can weather the expensive oil storm, picks CENTEL, AOT, ERW
Asia Plus Securities said Brent crude rose sharply above 100 USD per barrel due to conflict centred on oil shipping routes, unlike the broad-based disruption in the second quarter of 2019. The MSCI World Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Index fell 0.1% day-on-day, compared with a 0.7% day-on-day decline in the MSCI ACWI, amid a risk-off correction. The research team views the driver for the tourism sector ahead of the November to February travel season as coming from Golden Week on 1 October, with Chinese tourist numbers showing improvement, reflected in Chinese arrivals to Thailand exceeding those to Vietnam for two consecutive months. In July 2019 they stood at 460,000, versus 390,000 for Vietnam, and in August at 480,000, versus 460,000 for Vietnam. Meanwhile, China-Thailand flight capacity for the fourth quarter of 2019, based on Bloomberg Intelligence data dated 8 September, showed seats on China-Thailand routes expanding 11.8% year-on-year, compared with an 11.5% year-on-year increase for China-Vietnam, and an overall increase of 8.5% year-on-year. The research team assesses that the impact of this round of Brent gains on the sector is likely to be less severe than in the second quarter of 2019, which was the low season, and favours stocks with a high proportion of Chinese customers, namely AOT, where Chinese travellers account for about 24% of international passengers, followed by ERW, where Chinese customers make up about 14% of room revenue, then CENTEL, MINT and THAI. It maintains its view that normalised profit for the Thai hotel sector in the fourth quarter of 2019 is still expanding year-on-year, supported by on-the-books figures running higher than a year earlier, with CENTEL standing out above the sector. AOT has drivers from passenger service charges and its cost control plan. The research team also picks CENTEL, AOT and ERW as event trades, seeing share price corrections as an opportunity to accumulate Thai tourism stocks, and says that if jet fuel rises above its previous peak of 209 USD per barrel in April and starts to affect flight capacity, that would be a tactical trigger to reduce weighting in the tourism sector.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive Favoured for high Chinese-customer mix (~24% of international passengers) with China-Thailand Q4 seat capacity up 11.8% YoY and rising Chinese arrivals.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Named as standing out above the sector with Q4 normalised profit expanding YoY on higher on-the-books figures and Chinese customers ~14% of room revenue.
ERW.BK · Demand · Positive Favoured for Chinese customers making up about 14% of room revenue amid improving Chinese arrivals to Thailand.
MINT.BK · Demand · Neutral Only listed among favoured names with high Chinese-customer exposure, no company-specific development given.
THAI.BK · Demand · Neutral Mentioned only in the list of favoured stocks with high Chinese-customer proportion, no specific detail.
Thailand Travel Thailand Plus 2026 opens registration 1-25 October via Paotang, 1 million slots
The Thailand Travel Thailand Plus 2026 programme has had its latest conditions approved by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. Registration will open from 1 to 25 October 2026 through the Paotang application, with a total of 1,000,000 slots, and the programme will be submitted to the Cabinet for approval soon. For the accommodation subsidy, the government pays the actual cost of accommodation up to a maximum of 1,500 baht per night, capped at 5 nights per person, amounting to a maximum accommodation discount value of 7,500 baht. The electronic travel coupon is a co-payment model, with the government paying 50% and the public paying 50%. For travel to main cities, the government supports a coupon worth 1,500 baht per entitlement, and for travel to secondary cities, the government supports a coupon worth 2,000 baht per entitlement. If there is spending in a secondary city area at least once, the system will immediately adjust the limit up to 2,000 baht. The travel period for using the entitlement runs from 1 November 2026 to 28 February 2027, divided into Phase 1 from 1 November to 15 December 2026 and Phase 2 from 16 January to 28 February 2027, with the entitlement suspended during the New Year holiday from 16 December 2026 to 15 January 2027. Eligible persons must be Thai nationals aged 18 or over as of the registration date and must hold an original, unexpired national ID card. The stocks that benefit, ranked by proportion of domestic hotels from highest to lowest, are ERW, CENTEL, MINT and SHR. Restaurant stocks that benefit from the increased coupon, ranked by number of branches from highest to lowest, are M, ZEN, CENTEL and MAGURO. The spa business group is SPA.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Named among top domestic-hotel beneficiaries of the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus 2026 accommodation subsidy and coupons.
ERW.BK · Demand · Positive Ranked highest by proportion of domestic hotels among beneficiaries of the government travel subsidy programme.
M.BK · Demand · Positive Listed as a restaurant stock benefiting from the increased travel coupon, ranked by number of branches.
MINT.BK · Demand · Positive Listed among the top domestic-hotel beneficiaries of the accommodation subsidy and travel coupons.
MAGURO.BK · Demand · Positive Named among restaurant stocks benefiting from the higher-value travel coupons in the programme.
SHR.BK · Demand · Positive Named among stocks benefiting from the Thailand Travel Thailand Plus 2026 domestic travel subsidy, which boosts hotel demand.
TTB Wealth warns new Fed rate hike could push SET down 5-10%
Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities Public Company Limited warn that this September's FOMC meeting is a key event the market is watching closely. If the Fed decides to raise rates, it would mark the first hike of this cycle, following six consecutive holds since the last cut on December 10, 2025. Historical data from 1994 to 2022 covering six previous hiking cycles shows that US equities and the SET typically held steady to edged slightly lower in the 15 days after the first hike, before facing greater pressure over the following 30 to 60 days. US equities fell an average of 3-4%, while the SET saw average declines of as much as 5-10%. The current cycle differs from past tightening cycles because the economy and labour market are not as hot as in 2022. So if the Fed resumes hiking, the market could face pressure from both a slowing economy and inflation that remains above the 2% target. And if the Fed hikes while the MPC holds rates steady, the US-Thailand interest rate gap would widen, adding pressure on fund flows and the baht. The groups likely to outperform in a rising bond yield environment include banks, and those benefiting from a weaker baht, such as tourism, exports, and companies with a high share of revenue in foreign currency. TTB Wealth recommends selective investment in groups with earnings growth that can withstand tight monetary policy, such as ADVANC, AMATA, WHA, KTB and BBL, and in groups that benefit from a weaker baht, such as DELTA, AOT, CENTEL, CPN and PR9.
ADVANC.BK · Monetary · Positive TTB Wealth recommends ADVANC as a group whose earnings growth can withstand tight monetary policy amid a potential Fed rate hike.
AMATA.BK · Monetary · Positive TTB Wealth recommends AMATA as a group with earnings growth that can withstand tight monetary policy if the Fed hikes rates.
AOT.BK · Monetary · Positive TTB Wealth names AOT among groups benefiting from a weaker baht, which would follow a Fed hike widening the US-Thailand rate gap.
BBL.BK · Monetary · Positive TTB Wealth recommends KTB as a bank likely to outperform in a rising bond yield environment and to withstand tight monetary policy.
CENTEL.BK · Monetary · Positive TTB Wealth names CENTEL among groups benefiting from a weaker baht, which would follow a Fed hike widening the US-Thailand rate gap.
DELTA.BK · Monetary · Positive TTB Wealth names DELTA as a group benefiting from a weaker baht if the Fed hikes while the MPC holds, widening the rate gap.
The Ministry of Finance has approved the use of loans under the 400 billion baht borrowing decree to proceed with the Thai Teaw Thai Plus project, with a budget of 3.5 billion baht for 1 million rights. The proposal will be submitted to the Cabinet for approval soon. The government will subsidize accommodation costs at no more than 1,500 baht per night for up to 5 nights, along with travel coupons of 1,500 baht for primary cities and 2,000 baht for secondary cities, with a 50% co-payment. Registration will open via the Pao Tang app from October 1-25, 2026, with usage starting November 1, 2026. However, there will be a blackout period during the New Year holidays from December 15, 2026 to January 15, 2027, and rights can be used again from January 16 to February 28, 2027. Dao Securities research views this as positive for the tourism sector, especially ERW, which has many economy and midscale hotels, while CENTEL benefits from both hotels and restaurants participating in the project. Notable buy-rated stocks are CENTEL with a target of 48.00 baht and ERW with a target of 4.20 baht. For the food and beverage group, the rating remains marketweight, with MAGURO as the top pick with a target of 28.00 baht.
Thai stocks fluctuate in 1,610-1,630 range; expensive oil pressures Fed
Kasikorn Securities expects the SET Index to move within 1,610-1,630 points today, amid Middle East tensions that have pushed Brent crude oil prices to close near $98 per barrel, increasing inflation risks and the chance that the Fed will raise interest rates. The market assigns a 62.7% probability of a rate hike in September. Yesterday, the SET closed at 1,621.89 points, up 3.07 points or +0.19%, with foreign investors net buying 652 million baht. Domestic positive factors include economic stimulus measures such as the Thai Teaw Thai Plus 2569 project with a budget of 3.5 billion baht, expected to generate 26 billion baht in circulation, and the PDP 2026 plan that increases the renewable energy share to 73%, supporting energy and tourism stocks. Notable stocks today are GULF with a target price of 79.00 baht and CENTEL with a target price of 48.11 baht.
CENTEL–AWC Lead Hotel Stocks Up on Hopes for Thai Travel Thai Travel Plus Measures
Hotel stocks rose, led by CENTEL and AWC, following news that the government is preparing to launch the "Thai Travel Thai Travel Plus" tourism stimulus measures, expected to be finalized mid-month. CENTEL gained 4.09% to 44.50 baht, while AWC rose 3.31% to 3.12 baht, and ERW added 3.17% to 3.90 baht. The measures have a budget of 4 billion baht, distributing 1 million rights, divided into accommodation discounts of up to 3,000 baht per right, totaling 3 billion baht, and travel coupons of 1,000 baht per right, totaling 1 billion baht. The coupons are increased from 500 baht in the previous program and expanded to include spa and wellness businesses. Analysts from Dao Securities and Krungsri Securities view this as most positive for ERW and CENTEL, as well as AWC.
Hope for 'Thai Teaw Thai Plus' to Boost Hotel and Spa Stocks
Kasikorn Securities stated that the Ministry of Tourism and Sports will discuss with the Ministry of Finance on September 8 to finalize the "Thai Teaw Thai Plus" project with a budget of 4 billion baht for 1 million rights, divided into accommodation discounts of up to 3,000 baht and a voucher of 1,000 baht per right, supporting the co-payment approach to increase cash flow in the system. If a conclusion is reached, it is expected to be proposed to the Cabinet next week and registration will open from October 1, 2026. This is seen as a positive sentiment for tourism, hotel, spa, and domestic service stocks such as ERW, CENTEL, AWC, and SPA, due to the potential recovery in demand and revenue during 4Q69.
CENTEL expects second-half recovery on high season in Pattaya, Phuket, Maldives
CENTEL signals that its hotel business in the second half of 2026 will recover better than in the second quarter, especially in the final stretch of the year as Pattaya returns to life with a series of major events, boosting occupancy and revenue per room. Meanwhile, Phuket is growing strongly with double-digit revenue growth, and the Maldives continues to receive good response. Japan, however, is slowing from a high base but is still on track. Mr. Kan Srisompong, Chief Financial Officer of CENTEL, revealed that the fourth quarter is likely to be lively due to the tourism season. In Pattaya, there are 5 hotels with a total of 1,422 rooms, divided into 2 hotels owned by the company: Centara Grand Mirage Beach Resort Pattaya with 553 rooms and COSI Pattaya Wong Amat Beach with 282 rooms. The other 3 are managed: Centara Pattaya Hotel with 226 rooms, Centara Nova Hotel & Spa Pattaya with 79 rooms, and Centara Life Maris Jomtien with 282 rooms. Centara Grand Mirage had an occupancy rate of 91% in July, stable at 87%, with a RevPAR target of 5,500 baht. In Phuket, the occupancy rate in July was 89%. In the Maldives, the main markets are Russia at 17%, the United Kingdom at 15%, China at 10%, India at 8%, and Australia at 8%. For the full year 2026, the company expects an average occupancy rate including joint venture hotels of 70-75%, RevPAR of 4,200-4,400 baht, and total revenue growth of 3-5%, amounting to 14,200-14,500 million baht, compared to 13,816 million baht in 2025.
How Much Do Rising Oil Prices Affect Aviation and Hotel Stocks?
Asia Plus Securities stated that the renewed tensions between the US and Iran have pushed Brent crude to 95 USD per barrel, approaching the tactical trigger level of 100 USD per barrel, which could impact travel costs. Tourism-related stocks corrected by around 2-4% yesterday, more than the SET index which fell 0.4%, reflecting that some negative factors have already been priced in. The research department assesses that airlines will be most affected by jet fuel price volatility, followed by AOT due to travel volumes. The hotel group's impact is limited due to diversified portfolios. Although sentiment remains negative, AOT's and hotel groups' normal profits in the second quarter of 2025 are still expanding year-on-year, reflecting resilience. If prices pull back, it could be an opportunity to accumulate, with a preference for CENTEL and AOT. They also recommend a barbell strategy between dividend stocks such as KTB, KBANK, BBL and reopening stocks.
AOT.BK · Supply · Negative Rising Brent crude on US-Iran tensions raises jet fuel costs, and AOT is flagged as the second-most affected by travel-cost pressure.
CENTEL.BK · Supply · Neutral Higher oil-driven travel costs are a negative, but the article says hotel-group impact is limited due to diversified portfolios and CENTEL is a preferred accumulation pick.
Thailand
