Asia Aviation Public Company Limited provides airline services in Thailand. It operates through two segments: Scheduled Flight Operations and Chartered Flight Operations. The Scheduled Flight Operations segment offers passenger air transportation to routine destinations and sells tickets through channels such as websites, sale counters, and travel agents. The Chartered Flight Operations segment serves non-routine destinations for tourist agency companies, and the company also operates an academy for learning and competency development in the aviation tourism and hospitality industries, along with baggage handling and other services. Founded in 2004, it is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
AAV swings to big Q2 loss on fuel; AirAsia parent risk adds pressure
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Q2 loss on record fuel costs AAV posted a 2.33 billion baht net loss in Q2 2026 as jet fuel hit a record $183 a barrel. It cut seats 13% and raised fares 27%, but that covered only half the extra fuel bill. Management expects a Q4 profit.
This is the single biggest new fact about AAV's earnings and the main reason the stock is under pressure.
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AirAsia parent collapse risk Krungsri Securities advised against AAV, warning that if parent AirAsia collapses, 7-8 billion baht of overdue related-party receivables could become bad debt. AAV could also lose group network and aircraft-buying benefits. Malaysia is already planning route takeovers.
This is a new, specific risk to AAV's balance sheet and competitive position that directly weighs on the share price.
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Weak baht and China tourism boost A weaker baht (33.16 per dollar) makes Thailand cheaper for foreign tourists, helping airlines like AAV. The prime minister's China visit also aims to lift Chinese arrivals to 5.13 million in 2026, supporting flight demand.
These are new demand-side supports that can offset some of the fuel and parent-company negatives.
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AirAsia founder says demand strong, fuel manageable Tony Fernandes said travel demand remains strong and higher fuel costs are far less severe than during COVID, with ticket-price hikes planned to offset them. This offers some reassurance, but the parent's financial problems and fuel surge are still unresolved.
It is the latest management comment on the two biggest overhangs, giving a counterweight but not clearing the risks.
Q3 2026
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AAV swings to big Q2 loss on fuel; AirAsia parent risk adds pressure
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Q2 loss on record fuel costs AAV posted a 2.33 billion baht net loss in Q2 2026 as jet fuel hit a record $183 a barrel. It cut seats 13% and raised fares 27%, but that covered only half the extra fuel bill. Management expects a Q4 profit.
This is the single biggest new fact about AAV's earnings and the main reason the stock is under pressure.
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AirAsia parent collapse risk Krungsri Securities advised against AAV, warning that if parent AirAsia collapses, 7-8 billion baht of overdue related-party receivables could become bad debt. AAV could also lose group network and aircraft-buying benefits. Malaysia is already planning route takeovers.
This is a new, specific risk to AAV's balance sheet and competitive position that directly weighs on the share price.
▲
Weak baht and China tourism boost A weaker baht (33.16 per dollar) makes Thailand cheaper for foreign tourists, helping airlines like AAV. The prime minister's China visit also aims to lift Chinese arrivals to 5.13 million in 2026, supporting flight demand.
These are new demand-side supports that can offset some of the fuel and parent-company negatives.
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AirAsia founder says demand strong, fuel manageable Tony Fernandes said travel demand remains strong and higher fuel costs are far less severe than during COVID, with ticket-price hikes planned to offset them. This offers some reassurance, but the parent's financial problems and fuel surge are still unresolved.
It is the latest management comment on the two biggest overhangs, giving a counterweight but not clearing the risks.
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AAV.BK▲
Thai AirAsia to issue two tranches of high-yield bonds at 5.50-6.15% interest, subscription opens 30 Oct and 2-3 Nov
Thai AirAsia Company Limited, or TAA, has filed a draft registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, to prepare the issuance and offering of high-yield, unsubordinated, guaranteed bonds. The issuer has the right to redeem the bonds before maturity and will pay interest every 3 months. The offering is made to institutional investors and/or high-net-worth investors. The bonds are divided into 2 tranches. Tranche 1 has a term of 2 years and 6 months, maturing in 2029, with an interest rate of 5.50-5.70% per annum. Tranche 2 has a term of 3 years and 6 months, maturing in 2030, with an interest rate of 6.00-6.15% per annum. Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, or AAV, which is the company's major shareholder with a 100% stake, has agreed to act as guarantor for the payment of principal, interest, and any other monetary obligations of the company under the bonds, the bondholders' rights terms, and the guarantee agreement. Subscription will be open from 30 October 2026 and 2-3 November 2026. Bluebell Securities, Asia Plus Securities, Krungthai XSpring Securities, Dao Securities (Thailand), Maybank Securities (Thailand), Bualuang Securities, Pi Securities, CGS International Securities (Thailand), UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand), Finansia Syrus Securities, and Apollo Wealth are the underwriters of the bonds, with Bluebell Securities acting as the bondholders' representative. The credit rating stands at BBB- by TRIS Rating Company Limited as of 30 March 2026. The company intends to use the proceeds from this bond offering to repay debt from the TAA26NA bonds, which will mature on 10 November 2026, and to fund expenses in its airline business operations, which is currently the company's core business.
AAV.BK · Capital · Positive AAV, 100% owner of Thai AirAsia, will guarantee the new high-yield bonds, supporting the issuer's debt refinancing and airline operations.
Thai AirAsia returns to Suvarnabhumi on 1 October with 3 routes
Thai AirAsia, also known as AAV, has resumed services at Suvarnabhumi Airport starting from 1 October, opening three direct routes to Chiang Mai, Krabi and Phuket. The airline held welcome activities for passengers on the first flights on all three routes, with passenger load factors above 82 percent. The airline said passengers can choose to travel in and out of Bangkok via two airports: Don Mueang Airport, or DMK, and Suvarnabhumi Airport, or BKK.
AAV.BK · Demand · Positive Thai AirAsia resumed Suvarnabhumi services with three new direct routes and load factors above 82%, expanding its flight network and passenger demand.
Trip.com reports China-Phuket flight bookings surge 78% ahead of Golden Week 2026
Kasikorn Securities revealed that Trip.com Group indicated Chinese tourists during Golden Week 2026 are tending to travel earlier and stay longer, with flight bookings to Phuket rising 78% year on year, while Chiang Mai is gaining popularity among Gen Z, in line with the recovery of travel in Asia. In addition, bookings for accommodation of seven nights or more rose 123% year on year, reflecting both an increase in the number of trips and in their duration. The research team views this as positive momentum for the tourism sector, namely AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL and ERW, given the recovery opportunity for Chinese tourists and tourism activity during Golden Week. However, the flood situation still needs to be monitored closely.
9961.HK · Demand · Positive Trip.com reported China-Phuket flight bookings up 78% YoY and 7+ night accommodation bookings up 123% ahead of Golden Week 2026, signaling strong end-customer travel demand.
AAV.BK · Demand · Positive Chinese Golden Week flight bookings to Phuket up 78% and longer stays signal stronger travel demand benefiting AAV's airline operations.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive Surge in China-Phuket flight bookings and longer trips point to higher passenger traffic through AOT's airports.
BA.BK · Demand · Positive Rising Chinese tourist bookings to Phuket and Chiang Mai support demand for Bangkok Airways' routes.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive 123% jump in 7-night-plus accommodation bookings reflects stronger hotel demand for CENTEL during Golden Week.
AAV confident on November bond maturity, handles floods and charges into Q4 high season
Pairach Pornpattanangkul, Chief Executive Officer of Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, or AAV, disclosed that the company was able to maintain its on-time flight operations standard even during the flood crisis by sourcing and booking hotels near Don Mueang Airport for volunteer staff, along with arranging two rounds of pickup truck shuttles, both from flooded homes to the hotels and from the hotels to Don Mueang for flight-shift duties. As for the bonds due for repayment this November, the company has already prepared a new bond issue to replace them, with average circulating cash in its accounts of approximately 1 billion baht, and has backup plans including credit lines from commercial banks and sale-and-leaseback transactions for aircraft. For the fourth quarter, the company expects clearly accelerating operating results from the tourism season, with roughly more than 50 aircraft ready for service out of a total fleet of about 60, after sending some for scheduled maintenance during the third-quarter low season. Meanwhile, the passenger load factor remains at an average of nearly 80% or higher, and ticket prices tend to rise by an average of 2,000 baht, in line with high-season pricing mechanisms and rising global jet fuel costs, which have climbed to a level of 170 to 180 US dollars per barrel.
AAV.BK · Capital · Positive Company prepared a new bond issue plus bank credit lines and sale-and-leaseback backup to repay November-maturing bonds, easing refinancing risk.
AAV.BK · Demand · Positive Q4 high-season tourism is expected to clearly accelerate operating results, with load factor near 80%+ and over 50 of ~60 aircraft ready for service.
KS-SBITO says floods only slightly dent tourism, recommends home-repair and retail stocks to benefit from recovery
Securities analysts at Kasikorn Securities, or KS, said that although nationwide reservoir water levels are as high as 78% of capacity, the tourism sector is still operating normally, so they estimate that third-quarter 2026 earnings for the tourism group will be affected only slightly. Airports of Thailand, or AOT, has reported no flight cancellations, and major airlines AAV, BA and THAI continue to operate as normal. Meanwhile, hotel operators led by AWC, CENTEL, DUSIT, ERW, MINT, SHR and VRANDA have suffered no property damage, though room booking cancellations in the provinces run about 2% to 15%, partly offset by guests extending their stays. KS therefore maintains its investment weighting on the hotel group, sees the drop in share prices driven by the flood factor as a buying opportunity, and recommends buying AWC with a target price of 3.74 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 48.11 baht, and THAI with a target price of 6.78 baht. Separately, SBI Thai Online, or SBITO, assesses that this crisis will be a medium-term boost for four main business groups in the recovery: the home repair and construction materials group, led by HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and MR.DIY; the retail and consumer goods group, led by CPALL and CPAXT; the communications group, led by ADVANC and TRUE; and the tourism group, where economic activity will gradually recover after the situation eases.
AWC.BK · Capital · Positive KS recommends buying AWC with a 3.74 baht target price, calling the flood-driven share drop a buying opportunity.
CENTEL.BK · Capital · Positive KS recommends buying CENTEL with a 48.11 baht target price, viewing the flood-related price drop as a buying opportunity.
CPALL.BK · Demand · Positive SBITO expects the retail and consumer goods group led by CPALL to benefit from medium-term recovery after the floods.
CPAXT.BK · Demand · Positive SBITO names CPAXT among the retail and consumer goods leaders expected to gain from post-flood recovery.
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive SBITO lists DOHOME in the home repair and construction materials group set to benefit from flood recovery.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Positive SBITO names GLOBAL among home-repair and construction materials leaders expected to benefit from post-flood recovery demand.
DBS Vickers assesses flood winners and losers across 25 provinces, 128 districts
DBS Vickers has issued an analysis assessing the impact on Thai stocks from the flood situation in Thailand, which still requires close monitoring, after heavy to very heavy rainfall and water masses from the North flowing into the Central region caused flooding in 25 provinces covering 128 districts. Bangkok and its vicinity faced continuous heavy rain from 25–27 September 2026, causing flooding in many areas. Most recently, rainfall has tended to decrease but repeated rain still needs monitoring, and drainage will take about 1–2 days. The government therefore declared Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, and Samut Prakan special public holidays on 28–29 September to ease the impact and reduce travel by the public. The research team assesses that the short-term impact on the SET Index comes from negative sentiment toward economic activity, but the impact on operating results is expected to be limited. Stocks expected to benefit include the Home Improvement group such as HMPRO, GLOBAL, and DOHOME, whose short-term impact from rain and flooding pressured traffic, but a boost is expected to begin in 4Q26E after the water recedes from repair and home restoration demand, as well as NEO, which derives 100% of total revenue from consumer products, with a target price of 31.00 baht. Meanwhile, TFMAMA benefits from consumers stockpiling more goods during the floods, and TASCO benefits from road repairs after the water recedes. Stocks expected to be negatively affected include the Ground Transport group such as BEM and BTS, which may see short-term impacts on ridership, with expressway tolls waived until 29 September at 24.00. The impact is seen as limited because the Expressway Authority of Thailand will compensate the companies. The tourism group ERW, CENTEL, AAV, and AOT is seen as slightly negative and a short-term impact. The Energy group such as OR and PTG is expected to see a slight negative impact on downstream energy stocks, with total daily retail oil sales volumes of OR and PTG at approximately 29.4 million and 15.8 million liters in 2Q26, and the number of service stations in the Central, Eastern, and Western regions for OR and PTG at approximately 45% and 37% of total service stations. Meanwhile, the insurance group TIPH, TVH, MTI, BKI, and AYUD is affected by flood compensation payouts. The Commerce group such as CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC continues to see rain and flooding pressure traffic, with some branches in urban areas temporarily closed, but stockpiling of essential goods helps offset some of the impact.
Climate Adaptation & Water › Resilient Buildings & Retrofit ▲Demand
DOHOME.BK · Demand · Positive DBS Vickers names DOHOME as a home-improvement beneficiary expected to gain from repair and home restoration demand after the flood water recedes in 4Q26E.
GLOBAL.BK · Demand · Positive GLOBAL is cited as a home-improvement winner set to benefit from post-flood repair and home restoration demand starting 4Q26E.
HMPRO.BK · Demand · Positive HMPRO is named among home-improvement beneficiaries expected to see a boost from repair and restoration demand once the water recedes.
NEO.BK · Demand · Positive NEO is highlighted as a beneficiary deriving 100% of revenue from consumer products, with a 31.00 baht target price, as consumers stockpile goods during the floods.
BEM.BK · Demand · Negative BEM is named in the Ground Transport group expected to see short-term impacts on ridership from the flooding.
BTS.BK · Demand · Negative BTS is named in the Ground Transport group expected to see short-term impacts on ridership from the flooding.
Yuanta Securities says AAV is once again facing a test of its strength amid liquidity concerns. AirAsia Group Bhd., or AAGB, has denied rumors that it sought government assistance and confirmed that its fundraising plan stands at about 1.0 billion US dollars during December 2026 to January 2027, below the rumored 3.0 billion US dollars. The main purpose is to refinance high-cost debt from the COVID-19 period. Meanwhile, AAV plans a sale-and-leaseback of two aircraft in the second half of 2026, expected to raise about 2.0 billion baht in cash, with one more aircraft eligible for such a transaction. The company believes it has sufficient liquidity to refinance 1.5 billion baht of debentures in the fourth quarter of 2026. AAGB expects the second quarter of 2026 to mark the bottom of its operating results and will focus on preserving profitability in the third quarter of 2026, the low season, by cutting capacity by about 20 to 25 percent year on year. As of the end of the second quarter of 2026, AAV had net receivables of about 11 billion baht, from 14 billion baht in receivables minus 3.3 billion baht in payables, and expects that figure to hold steady in the third quarter of 2026 before gradually declining in the fourth quarter of 2026 and in 2027. The analyst maintains a TRADING recommendation with a fair value at the end of 2027 of 1.00 baht.
AAV.BK · Capital · Neutral AAV plans sale-and-leaseback of two aircraft to raise ~2bn baht and faces liquidity concerns over refinancing 1.5bn baht of debentures, with a TRADING call and 1.00 baht fair value.
Capital A Berhad · Capital · Neutral Capital A is the parent of AAGB, whose $1bn fundraising plan and denial of seeking government assistance are discussed; no direct Capital A-specific development.
Kasikorn Securities Recommends "Hold" on AAV, Cuts Target Price to 0.87 Baht After Lowering 2026-2028 Profit Forecasts
Kasikorn Securities has issued an analyst report on Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, or AAV, noting that management stated related-party receivables will be settled by year-end and that AAV's liquidity remains safe amid higher oil prices, while adjustments to flights and fares to optimize operations continue to generate profits. The research team cut its normal profit forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 91%, 61%, and 9% respectively due to higher jet fuel prices, and lowered its mid-2027 target price by 19.4% to 0.87 baht, based on a price-to-book value of 1 times, while recommending "Hold," noting the stock still does not look expensive, trading at 7.4% above the research team's fair value, based on a jet fuel price assumption of 145 dollars per barrel in 2027.
MalaysiaHong Kong SAR ChinaUnited StatesIsraelIran
Aerospace & Aviation
AirAsia co-founder confident travel demand remains strong, says higher oil prices are easier to handle than during COVID era
Tony Fernandes, co-founder of AirAsia, said on September 18 that the challenges the low-cost carrier faces from soaring jet fuel prices are far less severe than during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, with continued strong demand for air travel a key factor supporting the business. Speaking at a press conference in Hong Kong, Fernandes said the second quarter was the most difficult period for the airline, and he expects conditions to begin improving after AirAsia gradually raises ticket prices to reflect higher fuel costs. The remarks came after Reuters reported on September 16, citing sources, that the Malaysian government had asked Malaysia Airlines and Batik Air whether they could take over domestic routes and passengers from AirAsia, as part of contingency planning while authorities monitor the financial position of AirAsia, Southeast Asia's largest budget carrier. AirAsia has been hit hard by jet fuel prices that surged amid the war between the US-Israel side and Iran, pushing average jet fuel prices in the second quarter up 66% from the previous quarter to 183 dollars per barrel.
AAV.BK · Supply · Neutral AirAsia faces a 66% Q2 surge in jet fuel prices, but Fernandes says higher fuel costs are far less severe than during COVID and plans to offset them with ticket-price hikes.
Batik Air · Regulation · Neutral Malaysian government asked Batik Air whether it could take over domestic routes and passengers from AirAsia as contingency planning, a potential opportunity but only a query.
Krungsri Securities advises against investing in AAV, fearing AirAsia collapse risk and bad debt impact
The analyst at Krungsri Securities has a Negative view on AAV, even though Thai AirAsia, which AAV wholly owns, is expected to avoid direct impact from the severe financial risk facing AirAsia. However, there is a risk of losing competitive advantages from the group's flight network, aircraft purchasing bargaining power, and other cooperation within the group, as well as potential bad debt from related companies. In AAV's second-quarter 2569 results, related-party receivables exceeded 14 billion baht, with 7 to 8 billion baht overdue, or 0.59 baht per share, which risks turning into bad debt if AirAsia collapses, creating downside for earnings and the target price. Krungthep Turakij newspaper reported that the Malaysian government has begun planning to handle AirAsia's financial problems by asking Malaysia Airlines and Batik Air whether they can take over AirAsia's domestic routes and passengers if necessary. This follows AirAsia's second-quarter 2569 results showing a net loss of 831 million ringgit, current liabilities exceeding 18.4 billion ringgit, and at least 500 million ringgit in overdue airport service fees to MAHB. It is also under pressure from surging jet fuel prices. AirAsia is currently rushing to raise up to 1 billion dollars from overseas bond markets and an additional 700 million ringgit in domestic credit lines to restructure its debt. The company insists its fundraising target is sufficient for its needs and that it continues to operate normally. In addition, AAV carries the highest risk in the group from the renewed intensification of the Middle East war. Therefore, even though AAV's share price is already below the target price of 1.19 baht, investment is still not recommended.
AAV.BK · Capital · Negative Krungsri Securities advises against investing in AAV, citing AirAsia collapse risk, potential bad debt from 7-8 billion baht overdue related-party receivables, and downside to earnings and target price.
AAV.BK · Competition · Negative Risk of losing competitive advantages from the group's flight network, aircraft purchasing bargaining power, and other cooperation within the AirAsia group.
Thai AirAsia to cancel direct Don Mueang-Seoul route on October 25
Thai AirAsia has announced it will suspend its direct Bangkok Don Mueang to Seoul Incheon service from October 25, 2026, with no plans yet to resume at any future date. The airline cited the burden of soaring fuel costs, while the number of Thai tourists travelling to Korea has declined. The carrier has issued four assistance measures for affected passengers: a full refund, retention of the fare as credit for a future trip, re-routing with a connection in Kuala Lumpur, and a free change of travel date. The Don Mueang-Seoul route had originally been operated by Thai AirAsia X, or XJ, since the airline's launch more than 10 years ago, but in April 2026 it was transferred to Thai AirAsia, or FD, to fly instead, using smaller aircraft to cut costs. However, soaring oil prices caused the service on this route to open and close repeatedly until the decision was made to end it during the winter flight schedule, with no date set for any resumption.
AAV.BK · Supply · Negative Thai AirAsia suspends its Don Mueang-Seoul route due to soaring fuel costs, cutting capacity on a route it operates.
Thai AirAsia X · Supply · Neutral Route was originally operated by Thai AirAsia X before being transferred to Thai AirAsia in April 2026; the suspension affects the successor carrier, not XJ directly.
AAV Expected to Turn Profitable in Q4 on Peak Season and Rising Fares
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has revised up its core loss forecast for Thai AirAsia (AAV) in 2026 to 1,625 million baht from 900 million baht, and cut its 2027-2028 profit forecasts by 7-8% to reflect higher jet fuel costs. However, it expects the loss in Q2/2026 to be the trough, with a chance of returning to profit in Q4/2026, supported by peak tourism season, less capacity reduction, and ticket prices surging nearly 30% year-on-year. In Q3/2026, AAV plans to cut capacity by 23% year-on-year after suspending all domestic routes from Suvarnabhumi and international routes to Hong Kong. Meanwhile, jet fuel prices have surged from an average of $87 per barrel in Q2/2025 to approximately $135-140 per barrel in Q2/2026, leading to continued losses in Q3 but narrowing from the 2,100 million baht loss in Q2/2026. In Q4, it is expected to return to profit after cutting capacity by only 10% and with accelerating ticket prices. At the same time, AAV plans to sell and lease back two aircraft and terminate leases early for another 2-4 aircraft in the second half of 2026 to boost liquidity and reduce lease costs. Although maintenance costs will rise temporarily, the analyst is not concerned about cash flow as EBITDA turned positive in Q2/2026. A key point to watch is receivables from parent company AAGB, which rose to 14,600 million baht in Q2/2026 from 9,000 million baht in Q4/2025. AAGB plans to raise $1 billion and an additional 700 million Malaysian ringgit in credit facilities. KKPS expects AAV to post a net loss of 1,625 million baht in 2026 before turning to a profit of 1,370 million baht in 2027 and 1,829 million baht in 2028. It has also downgraded its recommendation to "Hold" and cut its target price to 1.20 baht from 1.30 baht.
AAV.BK · Capital · Neutral KKPS cut its target price to 1.20 baht and downgraded AAV to Hold while revising loss/profit forecasts on higher jet fuel costs.
AAV.BK · Demand · Positive AAV is expected to return to profit in Q4/2026 on peak tourism season and ticket prices surging nearly 30% year-on-year.
Asia Plus: Top Picks for September – BBL, PTT, BCH on Weak Baht and Rising Oil
Asia Plus Securities assesses that the Thai stock market in September still faces pressure from geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, and foreign capital outflows, but there are still opportunities for selective stock picking, especially stocks that benefit from the weakening baht and rising commodity prices. The firm highlights top picks BBL, PTT, and BCH. Brent crude oil prices surged to $90.49 per barrel, while WTI stood at $86.27 per barrel. This raises the probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike at its September meeting to 65.4%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.75%, the highest in a year. Foreign investors were net sellers in the Thai stock market in August, with net selling of 24.565 billion baht, and accumulated net short positions in the futures market of over 51,000 contracts. This pushed the baht to weaken to 33.16 baht per U.S. dollar, opening opportunities for three stock groups: export groups led by HANA, SVI, DELTA, and KCE; tourism groups led by AOT, AAV, BA, MINT, CENTEL, and ERW; and hospital groups led by BH, BDMS, PR9, and BCH. The Thai stock market structure has a 26% share of commodity stocks, helping to keep the index less volatile than the region. Meanwhile, Bitcoin risks a consolidation in September, with a recommendation to take short-term profits in DR: COIN01 and DR: HOOD80, and to watch for speculative opportunities in Tesla stock via DR: TSLA80 ahead of the Cybercab launch event.
Cabinet Meeting in South Approves Multi-Billion Baht Dual-Track Railway, Boosting Construction Stocks
The mobile Cabinet meeting in Songkhla Province, scheduled for August 31 to September 1, 2026, is set to consider several large-scale projects that could generate investment in the South for years to come, especially the second phase of the Southern dual-track railway with a total budget of approximately 104.466 billion baht, covering three routes with a combined distance of 534 kilometers: Chumphon–Surat Thani (30.423 billion baht), Surat Thani–Hat Yai Junction–Songkhla (66.271 billion baht), and Hat Yai Junction–Padang Besar (7.773 billion baht). If approved, this will connect the rail network from the lower central region to the Malaysian border, reduce logistics costs, and enhance long-term economic potential. Stocks expected to benefit include construction contractors such as CK, STECON, ITD, UNIQ, and NWR, as well as construction material companies like SCC, SCCC, and TASCO. Additionally, there are proposals from five southern provinces totaling 199 projects with an initial budget of over 57 billion baht, which could support water management and utility stocks such as FLE, UBA, and WIIK, as well as tourism and retail groups like AOT, AAV, CENTEL, ERW, SHR, CPALL, and CRC. However, most benefits are medium to long term and depend on actual approvals and bidding. Furthermore, there are projects for the Songkhla Lake Bridge and the Lanta Island Bridge with a combined budget of approximately 6.7 billion baht, expected to be completed by 2029, but the main contractor is a foreign company, CHEC Construction (M) Sdn Bhd, so Thai stocks may only get subcontracting work or domestic material procurement. Investors should monitor approval resolutions, funding sources, contract divisions, and actual work secured by each company, as these are key factors determining the impact on profits.
STECON.BK · Demand · Positive Listed as a construction contractor expected to benefit from the 104.466-billion-baht second-phase Southern dual-track railway if approved.
UNIQ.BK · Demand · Positive Listed as a construction contractor expected to benefit from the 104.466-billion-baht second-phase Southern dual-track railway if approved.
CK.BK · Demand · Positive CK is named as a construction contractor expected to benefit from the 104.466-billion-baht southern dual-track railway.
ITD.BK · Demand · Positive Named as a construction contractor expected to benefit from the 104.466-billion-baht southern dual-track railway if approved.
TASCO.BK · Demand · Positive Named among construction material companies expected to benefit from the southern dual-track railway and related projects.
UBA.BK · Demand · Positive Listed among utility stocks that could benefit from the 199 southern province projects covering water management and utilities.
Thai AirAsia increases domestic flights to 135 per day for high season
Thai AirAsia has announced an increase in domestic flight frequency in the fourth quarter to up to 135 flights per day, a rise of more than 50 percent from the third quarter's average of 88 flights per day. The airline is also proceeding with its strategy of serving two airports in Bangkok, with direct flights from Don Mueang to 22 routes and from Suvarnabhumi on 3 routes to Phuket, Krabi, and Chiang Mai, starting from October 1, 2026. CEO Phairat Phornpattananakul said the increase in flights is to accommodate the expected bustling year-end travel season, following earlier reductions due to high fuel prices and decreased travel. Popular routes from Don Mueang include Chiang Mai with 17 flights per day, Phuket with 15, and Hat Yai with 9. Meanwhile, Suvarnabhumi offers 6 flights to Chiang Mai, 5 to Phuket, and 2 to Krabi per day. Additionally, new cross-regional routes from Phuket to Khon Kaen and Udon Thani will begin on October 25, 2026.
SET to Host Thailand Focus 2026 to Attract Fund Flows, Showcasing Plans of 16 Listed Companies under JUMP+
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is set to host Thailand Focus 2026 from August 26-28, with 78 listed companies participating, representing a combined market capitalization of approximately 15 trillion baht, or about 74% of the total Thai stock market value. For the first time, stock exchanges from five ASEAN countries will also participate, aiming to attract foreign investment. Among the participants, 16 companies are part of the JUMP+ program, which have unveiled their three-year business value enhancement plans through 2028. For instance, BBIK targets a net profit of 700-800 million baht in 2028, an increase of 105-135% from 2025; JMT targets a net profit of 1.8 billion baht, up 75%; and AAV targets EBITDA of 17 billion baht, up 117%. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities noted that in the three weeks following Thailand Focus, the Thai stock market tends to deliver an average return of 2.44%, with an 80% probability of positive returns. The sectors to watch have shifted to electronic components, banks, industrial estates, and construction, driven by investment in AI and infrastructure.
Kasikorn Securities highlights 4 top stocks for the Thai Travel Thailand Plus scheme
Kasikorn Securities said the Ministry of Tourism is preparing to launch the Thai Travel Thailand Plus scheme in October 2026 with a budget of 1.75 billion baht, covering discounts on accommodation, food, air tickets, spas and tourism services. It is expected to generate at least 5 billion baht in circulation, while the government maintains its target of 33 million foreign tourists this year and expects the fourth quarter of 2026 to recover thanks to major events and new flight routes. The research team views this as positive for tourism, hotel, airline and service stocks such as Central Plaza Hotel, The Erawan Group, Asia Aviation and Bangkok Airways, driven by domestic tourism stimulus and a high-season recovery.
Finansia Syrus says AAV has passed its Q2 trough, expects return to profit in Q4
Finansia Syrus Securities assesses that Asia Aviation's second-quarter 2026 results are likely to mark the bottom of the earnings cycle, and expects the third-quarter 2026 loss to narrow before the company has a chance to return to profit in the fourth quarter of 2026, helped by easing jet fuel prices, recovering margins, and added capacity for the high season. For 2026, the company has lowered its passenger target to about 19 million from 21 million, while the 2027 target is still under review in line with aircraft delivery plans and capacity allocation. AAV continues to prioritise maintaining fares and margins over aggressively gaining market share, so seat capacity in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to fall about 23 percent from a year earlier, before gradually adding some domestic and regional flights in the fourth quarter of 2026 as demand recovers. On fuel costs, Finansia Syrus believes jet fuel prices have already peaked. AAV has hedged about 13 percent of its third-quarter 2026 fuel consumption at an average price of 89 dollars per barrel, and aims to keep its hedging ratio at 10 to 30 percent of fuel use. At the same time, the company is focused on cost control and liquidity management by limiting new hires, delaying non-essential projects, preparing to roll over bonds worth 1.5 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2026, considering additional sale and leaseback transactions for aircraft to manage cash flow, and planning to return two to four aircraft from the second half of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027 in line with the capacity reduction plan. On travel demand, advance bookings for the fourth quarter of 2026 remain close to last year's level even though ticket prices have risen, suggesting the market is beginning to accept higher fares. Finansia Syrus maintains a buy rating on AAV with a target price of 1.36 baht, based on 10.5 times 2026 EV to EBITDA, arguing that the current share price already reflects much of the near-term losses while the earnings recovery potential in 2027 to 2028 is not yet fully priced in. It also expects 2026 EBITDA to remain positive despite still-high fuel costs.
AAV expects Q3/69 performance to hold steady, eyes Q4 recovery on high season
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, or AAV, expects third-quarter 2069 results to be flat from the second quarter of 2069 despite entering the low season, with an expected decline in average fuel costs as a key supporting factor. The company also plans to issue new debentures worth 1.5 billion baht in November to replace maturing ones, and intends to return two to four aircraft in the second half of the year, leaving a fleet of about 58 aircraft at the end of 2069. For the fourth quarter of 2069, the company is confident of a recovery driven by the high season, as it will restore capacity so that cuts are reduced to only 10 percent or less, and there is an opportunity to raise average domestic ticket prices to near 2,000 baht. In addition, visa exemption measures for Indian tourists and domestic tourism stimulus programs will help support growth.
AAV reports second quarter 2569 results with net loss of 2.326 billion baht
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, the major shareholder of Thai AirAsia, announced its second quarter 2569 results, with revenue from sales and services of 10.046 billion baht, up 2 percent from the same period last year, but a net loss of 2.326 billion baht because jet fuel prices surged to a record high of 124 percent, reaching 183 US dollars per barrel. This pushed total fuel expenses up 43 percent to 5.011 billion baht. Although the airline cut seat capacity by 13 percent to 5.14 million seats and raised average fares by 27 percent, it still carried 4.03 million passengers and posted EBITDA of 25 million baht. Core operating loss for the quarter was 2.091 billion baht, while the first-half core operating loss was 440 million baht. On cost control, selling and administrative expenses fell 17 percent and staff costs fell 12 percent, but unit cost excluding fuel rose 13 percent to 1.43 baht. The airline maintained the highest domestic market share at 37 percent and raised 3.815 billion baht through a new bond issue in June 2569. Chief Executive Officer Mr. Phairat Pornpathananangoon said that in the fourth quarter the airline will increase aircraft utilisation to 52 aircraft and resume services at both Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports, and expects to return to profitability during the peak travel season at the end of the year.
Asia Plus Securities says strong baht draws fund flows, scans 17 stocks set to benefit
Asia Plus Securities assesses that the global investment landscape is facing challenges on all fronts, amid a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US employment, which fuels hopes that the Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate at the September meeting. Meanwhile, domestic factors are receiving a significant boost from the rapidly strengthening baht, supported by continued foreign inflows into the Thai bond market, with cumulative net purchases this month exceeding 9.2 billion baht. The baht recently touched 32.98 per US dollar. The research team has identified three main industry groups in Thailand that stand to benefit positively from the strong baht. The first group comprises large-cap stocks that are prime targets for foreign fund flows, including commercial banks such as KBANK, SCB, BBL, and KTB; retail and tourism plays like AOT, CPALL, and CRC; telecoms such as ADVANC and TRUE; and construction materials like SCC. The second group consists of companies with high foreign-currency debt or costs, including power and energy firms such as GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, and PTTEP, and airlines like AAV. The third group covers businesses that rely heavily on imported raw materials, including agriculture and food companies such as TFG and TVO. In addition, the research team recommends portfolio strategies to navigate volatility, highlighting safe-haven stocks combined with gold as a hedge, and names SYNTEC, PTT, and GUNKUL as top picks for the Thai stock market, along with LITE01 and ZIJIN80 for overseas investment.
Cabinet to consider Thai Tour Thai Plus project with 2.45 billion baht budget at end of August
The Ministry of Tourism is preparing to propose to the Cabinet by the end of August 2026 for approval of the Thai Tour Thai Plus project, requesting a budget of 2.45 billion baht from the emergency loan decree. It aims to stimulate the economy during the low season and generate over 56 billion baht in circulation. If approved, the public can start using the benefits from late 2026, including accommodation discounts of up to 3,000 baht, digital coupons, and airfare discounts, alongside measures to attract foreign tourists. Analysts assess that this project will be positive for tourism, hotel, and domestic airline stocks, namely CENTEL, ERW, MINT, AWC, AOT, BA, and AAV.
AAV.BK · Demand · Positive Thai Tour Thai Plus project includes airfare discounts and aims to stimulate domestic travel, boosting demand for AAV's flights.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive Project aims to stimulate tourism with accommodation and airfare discounts, increasing passenger traffic at AOT's airports.
AWC.BK · Demand · Positive Accommodation discounts and tourism stimulus are expected to increase hotel occupancy and revenue for AWC.
BA.BK · Demand · Positive Airfare discounts and tourism stimulus are expected to boost passenger numbers and revenue for Bangkok Airways.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Accommodation discounts and tourism stimulus are expected to increase hotel bookings and revenue for CENTEL.
ERW.BK · Demand · Positive Thai Tour Thai Plus project provides accommodation discounts, boosting hotel demand for ERW.
AAV Expected to Post Heavy Loss in 2Q26 Before Recovery Late in the Year
Dao Securities assesses that AAV will report a net loss of 2.3 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026. Excluding extraordinary items from foreign exchange losses, the normalised operating result would be a loss of 2.1 billion baht, down from the same period last year and the previous quarter. The main reason is a sharp rise in fuel costs, with the average jet fuel price in the second quarter of 2026 surging to 182 US dollars per barrel, compared with 81 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2025 and 85 US dollars per barrel in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, passenger numbers are expected to fall to 4.1 million, down 15 percent year on year and down 33 percent quarter on quarter, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict and higher ticket prices. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 normalised operating loss estimate of 2.7 billion baht and expects the normalised operating loss in the third quarter of 2026 to narrow from the second quarter of 2026 as fuel prices are likely to ease. The fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to continue recovering as it enters the peak tourism season. The recommendation remains Hold with a target price of 1.12 baht.
Government unveils three measures to boost high-season tourism, KS sees positive for tourism stocks
The Minister of Tourism and Sports has assigned policies to the Tourism Authority of Thailand board to drive the tourism industry under the concept of Tourism for All, Tourism for the Future, preparing to move forward with three key projects during the high season. These are the Thai Travels Thailand Plus, or Co-pay, project to stimulate domestic travel; the Fly Thai All the Feelings project, partnering with six domestic airlines to offer ticket discounts to Thai citizens for 400,000 seats; and the Thailand Air Connect project, collaborating with airlines and partners to increase frequency and seat capacity on both charter and commercial flights. In addition, the government aims to elevate Thailand into a valuable and sustainable destination, promoting travel to secondary cities and 55 target communities, and pushing for the country to become a global event hub by hosting the Tomorrowland Thailand music festival from 11 to 13 December 2026 in Chonburi province, which is expected to attract no fewer than 150,000 attendees and generate total economic value of up to 6.132 billion baht. Kasikorn Securities, or KS, assesses that these measures are a positive factor for tourism-related stocks, including AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, as well as retail operators in tourist cities, viewing that travel and spending have an opportunity to recover in the second half of the year.
AOT.BK · Demand · Positive Increased flight frequency and seat capacity through Thailand Air Connect project will drive passenger traffic at Airports of Thailand (AOT).
AAV.BK · Demand · Positive Government tourism stimulus measures including co-pay and airline ticket discounts expected to boost domestic travel demand, benefiting Asia Aviation (AAV) as a low-cost carrier.
BA.BK · Demand · Positive Fly Thai All the Feelings project partners with six domestic airlines including Bangkok Airways (BA) to offer discounted tickets, increasing passenger demand.
CENTEL.BK · Demand · Positive Government measures and high-season tourism boost expected to increase hotel occupancy and revenue for Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL).
ERW.BK · Demand · Positive Government tourism stimulus measures including co-pay, flight discounts, and events like Tomorrowland are expected to boost hotel occupancy and revenue for Erawan Group.
MINT.BK · Demand · Positive Government tourism stimulus measures including co-pay, flight discounts, and events like Tomorrowland are expected to boost hotel occupancy and revenue for Minor International.
AAV expected to post heavy loss in Q2 2026 on jet fuel price surge
KGI Securities expects AAV to report a normalised loss of 2.05 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, hit by the US-Iran conflict that drove jet fuel prices to an abnormally high 240 dollars per barrel. This has led the company to cut flights on some routes, with passenger numbers forecast at around 4.1 million, down 16 percent year-on-year and down 34.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. The load factor is expected to fall to 79 percent, while the average ticket price is seen at 2,050 baht per ticket, up 22.3 percent year-on-year. In addition, the company is expected to book a foreign exchange loss of about 405 million baht, resulting in a net loss of 2.45 billion baht, reversing from a net profit of 214 million baht in the second quarter of 2025 and a net profit of 841 million baht in the first quarter of 2026. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 net loss forecast at 3.72 billion baht and expects a swing to a net profit of 656 million baht in 2027, while keeping a hold rating and a year-end 2027 target price of 1.10 baht.
AirAsia and Bangkok Bank Upgrade Co-Brand Credit Card to Loyalty Ecosystem, Encouraging Repeat Travel
Bangkok Bank and Thai AirAsia are continuing their partnership into its 12th year, upgrading the AirAsia Platinum Mastercard Bangkok Bank credit card. The card links travel benefits with everyday spending to create a Loyalty Ecosystem and encourage customers to travel repeatedly. A new card design made from recycled rPVC plastic has also been unveiled. Cardholders will receive VIP privileges from check-in to baggage claim, along with cashback promotions and AirAsia points earned from general spending. These points can be redeemed for flights or other benefits through the AirAsia Rewards partner network. Cardholders also automatically receive Platinum membership status, granting access to upcoming premium benefits such as fixed-rate flight redemptions and a Companion Pass. The new card will be available for application or conversion from existing cards starting August 1, 2026.
Listed company profits in Q2 2026 at 276 billion baht, down 10.5% year-on-year
CGS International Securities Thailand forecasts that net profits of Thai listed companies in the second quarter of 2026, covering 127 firms or 86.7 percent of market capitalization, will total 276 billion baht, a decline of 10.5 percent from the same period last year and down 5.3 percent from the previous quarter. The main drag came from the energy sector due to weaker refining margins, and the transport sector which was hit by the low season for airlines. Meanwhile, petrochemicals, electronics, ICT, and tourism were key supports for the market. Energy sector profits are expected to fall 26.6 percent year-on-year and 11.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. Transport sector profits are seen dropping 72.1 percent year-on-year and 74.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, weighed by weaker results at AAV and THAI. Petrochemical profits are forecast to surge 326.4 percent from a low base last year, led by IVL and PTTGC. Electronics profits are expected to grow 89 percent, and ICT profits to rise 26 percent, helped by easing competition and improved ARPU at ADVANC and TRUE. Tourism benefited from the European travel season for MINT. Stocks expected to show outstanding profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter include IVL, PSL, and BGRIM. Stocks with accelerating profit momentum from the previous quarter include MINT, SC, and 3BBIF. The stocks forecast to grow the most year-on-year are BGRIM, up 7,305.8 percent, IVL up 982.9 percent, PSL up 771.9 percent, SPRC up 666.8 percent, and AMATA up 599.1 percent, mostly driven by low profit bases last year and industry recovery. In terms of quarter-on-quarter momentum, the stocks expected to see the biggest profit increases are MINT, up 452 percent, SC up 441.7 percent, IVL up 263.3 percent, PSL up 169 percent, and PTTEP up 121.2 percent, supported by seasonal factors, a recovery in the hotel business, property transfers, and improved sales volumes and margins in energy and petrochemicals. CGSI has also selected top picks under its Quality and Earnings Momentum strategy, focusing on stocks with profit growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, Outperform recommendations, and low volatility. These include PTTEP, MINT, SC, BAREIT, TVO, IVL, TNP, ZEN, BANPUU, and PR9.
PM's China Visit Boosts Tourism Stocks, Poised for Good News on Tourist Recovery
Prime Minister Anutin's visit to China is bolstering investment and tourism confidence. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is partnering with Sichuan Airlines, Meituan, and several Chinese allies to increase flights, enhance safety, and market to quality tourists. The target for Chinese tourists in 2026 has been adjusted to 5.13 million, generating revenue of approximately 288 billion baht. Research views this as positive for tourism and aviation stocks such as AOT, AAV, BA, CENTEL, ERW, MINT, and AWC, given the continued recovery in flights and Chinese tourist arrivals.
Thai Bank Stocks Face Heavy Sell-Off as Profit Growth Stalls, Dragging Index Down
The Thai stock market faced heavy selling pressure on banking stocks after second-quarter earnings came in below expectations. The index closed at 1,639.34 points, down 13.63 points, with trading value of 117 billion baht. Kasikornbank reported improved profit compared to a year earlier, but loan growth slowed and net interest margin narrowed. Siam Commercial Bank continued to set aside high provisions to manage retail customer risk amid a slowing domestic economy. Bangkok Bank's first-half profit for 2026 fell 16.2 percent to 20.4 billion baht, with the second quarter down nearly 20 percent. Krung Thai Bank was pressured by delayed government budget disbursements and fee income that fell short of expectations. Krungthai Card, despite solid performance, was sold off on concerns about the third-quarter economy. Asia Aviation faced higher operating costs from aircraft leases and volatile oil prices. Meanwhile, palm oil stocks may see mixed results, as downstream selling prices did not rise as much as hoped while fresh palm fruit purchase costs remain high.
BBL.BK · Capital · Negative First-half profit fell 16.2%, second quarter down nearly 20%.
KBANK.BK · Capital · Negative Loan growth slowed and net interest margin narrowed despite improved profit.
KTB.BK · Capital · Negative Delayed government budget disbursements and fee income fell short of expectations.
KTC.BK · Demand · Negative Sold off on concerns about third-quarter economy despite solid performance.
SCB.BK · Capital · Negative Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) continues to set aside high provisions to manage retail customer risk amid a slowing domestic economy, which negatively impacts earnings.
AAV.BK · Supply · Negative Higher operating costs from aircraft leases and volatile oil prices.
Seven tourism stocks poised for second-half recovery as foreign arrivals reach 17.36 million
Kasikorn Securities notes that the Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported that from January 1 to July 18, 2026, Thailand welcomed a cumulative 17.36 million foreign tourists, generating revenue of 839 billion baht. Although this is still down 3.05 percent compared to the same period last year, the top five source markets were China, Malaysia, India, Russia, and South Korea. Meanwhile, in the latest week, tourist numbers rose 4.04 percent from the previous week, supported by school holidays, increased flights, and a recovery in the Taiwan market. The research team views this as positive for tourism and airport stocks such as Airports of Thailand, Asia Aviation, Bangkok Airways, Central Plaza Hotel, Erawan Group, Minor International, and Asset World Corporation, given the gradual recovery in tourist numbers expected in the second half of the year, even though cumulative arrivals remain slightly below last year's level.
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