Siam Global House Public Company Limited

Four brokerages assess that the flood situation in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2026 will cause limited economic damage, as the waters have not yet spread into industrial estates or key production bases, unlike the great flood of 2011 that disrupted production chains on a wide scale. Finansia Syrus Securities estimates preliminary damage at around 20–40 billion baht, or roughly 0.1–0.2% of GDP, and views pressure on the stock market as reflecting short-term concerns rather than affecting earnings. Kasikorn Securities estimates damage at about 3,000–4,000 million baht per day, or roughly 20–30 billion baht per week; if severe conditions persist for one week, it could drag on GDP by about 0.1%. As of 27 September 2026, 25 provinces and 128 districts have been affected, with about 545,000 people impacted, compared with 2011 when floods hit 66 provinces, affected about 13.6 million people and caused damage of approximately 1.4 trillion baht. CGS International notes that Bangkok and its vicinity account for about 47.3% of the country's economy, and divides the situation into two scenarios: if water can be drained within 4–5 days, the impact will be limited, but if it drags on beyond 5 days, it could weigh more on purchasing power and consumption. For stocks that benefit after the waters recede, Finansia Syrus favours HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA, SCGD, DCC and DRT, while Kasikorn favours retail and food groups as well as the ICT group. Pi Securities estimates a SET range of 1,590–1,620 points and picks BDMS, BCH, CPALL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, TOP, ITC and TU, while CGS International says to watch DELTA, HANA and KCE if the SET falls below 1,600 points, on the theme of investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure.

Equity and derivatives market strategists in the research department of InnovestX Securities Company Limited, or InnovestX, assess that the current flooding will have a limited impact on the economy and the SET, because it is merely water waiting to drain from heavy rainfall, unlike the 2011 crisis. In addition, water levels in the main dams remain lower than in 2011 and 2025. If the water recedes within one to two weeks, the impact on 2026 GDP is expected to be around 21 billion baht, or -0.11%, and the firm still expects Thai GDP to grow in line with its 2.0% target in 2026-2027. Historical data shows that in cases of short-term flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET may dip an average of 0.6% initially before recovering into positive territory within one week. In cases of major flooding lasting more than seven days, the SET typically corrects an average of 3.8% in the first month and begins to recover from the second month onward, with Domestic Play stocks leading the market's recovery. InnovestX therefore recommends a Buy on Dip strategy to gradually accumulate Domestic Play stocks across three main themes. The first is Fast Recovery Plays, namely tourism names such as CENTEL and ERW and healthcare names such as BDMS and BCH. The second is Recovery & Repair Plays, namely commerce names such as HMPRO and GLOBAL and construction materials names such as DCC. The third is Consumer Staples & Stockpiling Plays, namely commerce names such as CPALL, BJC and CRC. At the same time, the firm advises caution on the insurance sector, which may come under pressure from a higher loss ratio.

CGS International (Thailand), or CGSI, has upgraded DOHOME, Siam Global House, or GLOBAL, and Home Product Center, or HMPRO, from Sell to Buy, and raised its investment weighting for the Thai retail sector from Neutral to Overweight, after seeing clearer signs of a demand recovery. The latest residential low-rise building permit data has returned to growth, with permitted construction area rising 10.6% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 after 11 consecutive quarters of contraction, and up another 7.7% in the second quarter of 2026. This suggests sales of home improvement products are likely to recover in the fourth quarter of 2026 and in 2027. CGSI said same-store sales growth at DOHOME in July and August, mostly sales of construction materials to contractors, project customers and wholesalers, has strengthened its confidence that the rise in construction plans is translating into real demand, and it expects same-store sales growth through that channel to remain in the high single digits in September even without the low-base boost from last year's steel shortage. CGSI views this as the clearest signal of a recovery in demand for home improvement products in three years. The stock CGSI finds most attractive is DOHOME, which it expects to be among the first to benefit from the demand recovery, as construction materials account for nearly 50% of sales in the first half of 2026, while about 35% of sales come from the northeastern region, where applications for low-rise residential building permits rose about 20% year on year in both the first and second quarters of 2026, according to the Real Estate Information Center, or REIC. GLOBAL has construction materials at about 35% of sales and a similar share of sales in the northeast to DOHOME, but its northern sales, about 25% to 30% of the total, still face declining building permit applications. HMPRO is expected to recover gradually along with consumption, supported by a dividend yield forecast at 5.5% in 2027. On earnings, CGSI raised its combined net profit forecasts for the three companies by 1.0% to 3.6% for 2026 to 2028 after lifting sales and margin assumptions for some companies and cutting financial cost forecasts, saying earnings and share price estimates could be revised up further if residential building permit applications keep growing, contractor sales continue to expand even without the low-base boost, and demand for construction materials and home decoration products recovers broadly. Risks that could weigh on this view include delays in construction after permits are granted, slower sales growth once the low-base effect fades, continued declines in household spending, and margins coming under more pressure than expected.

Securities analysts at Kasikorn Securities, or KS, said that although nationwide reservoir water levels are as high as 78% of capacity, the tourism sector is still operating normally, so they estimate that third-quarter 2026 earnings for the tourism group will be affected only slightly. Airports of Thailand, or AOT, has reported no flight cancellations, and major airlines AAV, BA and THAI continue to operate as normal. Meanwhile, hotel operators led by AWC, CENTEL, DUSIT, ERW, MINT, SHR and VRANDA have suffered no property damage, though room booking cancellations in the provinces run about 2% to 15%, partly offset by guests extending their stays. KS therefore maintains its investment weighting on the hotel group, sees the drop in share prices driven by the flood factor as a buying opportunity, and recommends buying AWC with a target price of 3.74 baht, CENTEL with a target price of 48.11 baht, and THAI with a target price of 6.78 baht. Separately, SBI Thai Online, or SBITO, assesses that this crisis will be a medium-term boost for four main business groups in the recovery: the home repair and construction materials group, led by HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and MR.DIY; the retail and consumer goods group, led by CPALL and CPAXT; the communications group, led by ADVANC and TRUE; and the tourism group, where economic activity will gradually recover after the situation eases.

Flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces is weighing on the Thai stock market in the short term. Piriyaphon Kongwanich, a strategist at BLS Wealth Research of Bualuang Securities, estimates preliminary damage of roughly 10 billion to 30 billion baht and expects only a limited impact on gross domestic product and listed-company earnings. He flagged stocks that may draw interest, including HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and ILM, with the research team upgrading GLOBAL and DOHOME to speculative buy while keeping buy ratings on HMPRO and ILM. Thaweethak Taweethiratham, an executive director at Asia Plus Securities, assesses the overall impact as still limited and short-lived, with building materials benefiting from demand to repair homes, while retail, hospitals and food also have support. Sectors to watch for indirect effects include electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture and commercial banks, while tourism, property and hire-purchase lending have already begun to feel negative effects. InnovestX Securities sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, noting that in past cases of short flooding lasting no more than seven days, the SET typically fell an average of about 0.6%, or 10 points, on the first day before turning positive within a week. It recommends a buy-on-dip strategy in domestic-play stocks through three themes: Recovery & Repair, comprising HMPRO, GLOBAL and DCC; Consumer Staples & Stockpiling, comprising CPALL, BJC and CRC; and Fast Recovery, comprising CENTEL, ERW, BDMS and BCH. The sector warranting added caution is insurance, given the risk that the loss ratio will rise from the damage incurred.

Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, is set to benefit from demand for home repair materials once the flood situation eases. Chief Executive Officer Witoon Suriyawanakul told the Stock Vision news team that the company has a total of 101 branches in Thailand and that all branches remain open and operating normally, even though some areas were affected by flooding. On third-quarter 2026 results, Witoon said overall performance was close to target, since the floods occurred in roughly the final 10 days of the quarter, and he expects a clearer recovery in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company is pressing ahead with expanding House Brand products, which carry margins about 10 percentage points higher than the branded goods it distributes. GLOBAL currently has a gross margin of approximately 25-29%, or an average of around 28%. On its overseas business, GLOBAL has two branches in Cambodia, where sales had previously fallen by about 25-30% amid the conflict, and it expects them to recover by more than 20% in the fourth quarter. In Laos, Myanmar and Indonesia, the company operates through joint ventures and is seeing good growth. For its 2026 growth target, the company has set a level equal to or slightly above Thailand's economic growth rate, based on the government's GDP forecast of around 2%.

TTBWEALTH Public Company Limited, or TTBWEALTH, assesses that this round of flooding will have a limited impact on the economy, as it is short-term and severe only in certain areas, unlike the 2011 event that flooded many areas and lasted several weeks to several months. In the short term, some stocks have gained both positive and negative sentiment. The groups benefiting positively include consumer goods retail, led by CPALL, CPAXT and CRC, as well as the home improvement and construction materials group, which is expected to benefit from demand for home repairs after the water recedes, namely HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, TOA and TASCO. Meanwhile, the groups affected negatively include insurance, such as TIPH, and tourism, namely AOT, ERW and CENTEL. In addition, several listed companies have updated the situation. DELTA reported that some areas were flooded but machinery and factories were not damaged, and operations returned to normal today after production lines were halted last Sunday. CENTEL had only some hotels affected, such as the Lat Phrao area where water entered the lobby, and the Pattaya zone, with a small number of customer cancellations. Its food business saw some sales decline from temporary store closures, but overall the impact is considered limited. MINT stated that most of its hotels are not in flood zones, its properties were not damaged, and it continues to operate normally. CPN confirmed that no shopping centers were closed, though it may be affected by a decline in customer traffic during the floods, and it expects no rental discounts to be offered.

Analysts at Krungsri Securities estimate that flooding in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces over the past weekend will hit the economy by about 0.16% of GDP, assuming the floods disrupt activity for one week, with Bangkok as the main economic area accounting for 34% of GDP. They said the groups that benefit once floodwaters recede include retailers of home repair equipment such as HMPRO, GLOBAL and DOHOME, construction materials players such as SCC and TASCO, and contractors expected to gain from a push for more state projects to tackle flooding. On dividend forecasts for 2026, analysts at Finansia Syrus Securities upgraded HMPRO from "hold" to "buy" with a target price of 7.20 baht and an expected dividend of 0.36 baht. Krungsri maintained its "buy" rating on GLOBAL with a target price of 8.80 baht and an expected dividend of 0.29 baht, and kept its "buy" rating on DOHOME with a target price of 4.40 baht and an expected dividend of 0.06 baht. KGI Securities (Thailand) recommended "buy" on SCC with a target price of 305 baht and an expected dividend of 8.50 baht, while analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) maintained their "buy" rating on TASCO with a target price of 19.40 baht and an expected dividend payout of 1 baht for 2026.

Global Securities, or GBS, estimates that the Thai stock market index (SET Index) will continue to fluctuate this week, projecting a trading range of 1,600-1,630 points amid pressure from tensions in the Middle East that have driven crude oil prices sharply higher and from elevated US government bond yields. Ms. Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director of Global Securities Co., Ltd., stated that the main negative factor came from the Dow Jones index, which fell 161.61 points, or 0.31%, while WTI crude oil futures rose 2.45 dollars, or 2.7%, to close at 94.61 dollars per barrel after Iran-backed Houthi forces fired missiles at Saudi Arabia. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors now assign a 69% probability to the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.00-4.25% at this month's October meeting, up from 55.4% the previous week. Domestically, attention must be paid to the Constitutional Court's ruling on September 28 regarding the use of barcodes and QR codes on ballot papers. On the positive side, the US Senate voted against the War Powers Resolution, and the US and China agreed to extend their trade truce until January 10, 2027. Meanwhile, Mr. Watcharern Jongyanyong, Research Director at Global Securities, recommends that investors speculate on stocks that benefit from post-flood repairs, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, TASCO, DCC, and DRT.

Yuanta Securities said a depression caused rainfall to accelerate, triggering flooding in Bangkok and surrounding areas over the past weekend, sparking panic and demand to stockpile essential goods. However, because this round lacked the additional pressure of northern runoff and high sea tides seen in 2011, conditions in many areas eased quickly, especially in inner Bangkok. The research team assesses the impact on investment sentiment as relatively limited, similar to the cases of Japan or South Korea, where situations eased quickly and barely affected investment sentiment. Meanwhile, the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates the economic impact at a maximum of about 10 billion baht, or 0.05% of GDP, which is considered not large. The research team therefore maintains its EPS forecast for this year at 103 baht per share. The sector directly affected is insurance, from claims during the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, while sectors expected to be slightly affected are finance and commercial banks, from measures to help debtors. Sectors that may gain positive sentiment from stockpiling goods and home repairs are home improvement, construction materials, and retail and wholesale of essential goods, such as GLOBAL, DOHOME, HMPRO, CPALL, BJC, and CPAXT, as well as telecom operators ADVANC and TRUE, from data usage and work-from-home measures.

KGI Securities (Thailand) said heavy rain covered Bangkok and its vicinity from September 25, causing flash floods in many areas, with the overall situation beginning to improve slowly from September 27, and it views the impact on the economy and the market as still limited. On the positive side, consumer staples groups such as BJC, CPALL and CPAXT are likely to benefit from stockpiling of fresh food, dry food and necessities. Meanwhile, home and building repair groups such as HMPRO, which has 50% of all its branches in the central region, and TASCO, as well as DOHOME and GLOBAL, are likely to benefit from the positive market conditions as well. However, KGI views this benefit as unlikely to be significant enough to raise its earnings forecasts for the stocks under coverage. On the negative side, the floods may affect customer numbers and goods transport flows for commercial property such as CPN, hotel groups and restaurants, with AWC having the highest concentration in Bangkok and therefore possibly facing the heaviest short-term impact. But if hotel stock prices pull back because of the floods, that would be a buying opportunity, since the main picture is still that revenue per available room is improving and the high travel season is approaching. As for restaurant stocks such as AU, M and MAGURO, they may be somewhat affected, with MAGURO temporarily closing all 6 of its branches, accounting for about 11% of the company's total 61 branches.

DBS Vickers has issued an analysis assessing the impact on Thai stocks from the flood situation in Thailand, which still requires close monitoring, after heavy to very heavy rainfall and water masses from the North flowing into the Central region caused flooding in 25 provinces covering 128 districts. Bangkok and its vicinity faced continuous heavy rain from 25–27 September 2026, causing flooding in many areas. Most recently, rainfall has tended to decrease but repeated rain still needs monitoring, and drainage will take about 1–2 days. The government therefore declared Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, and Samut Prakan special public holidays on 28–29 September to ease the impact and reduce travel by the public. The research team assesses that the short-term impact on the SET Index comes from negative sentiment toward economic activity, but the impact on operating results is expected to be limited. Stocks expected to benefit include the Home Improvement group such as HMPRO, GLOBAL, and DOHOME, whose short-term impact from rain and flooding pressured traffic, but a boost is expected to begin in 4Q26E after the water recedes from repair and home restoration demand, as well as NEO, which derives 100% of total revenue from consumer products, with a target price of 31.00 baht. Meanwhile, TFMAMA benefits from consumers stockpiling more goods during the floods, and TASCO benefits from road repairs after the water recedes. Stocks expected to be negatively affected include the Ground Transport group such as BEM and BTS, which may see short-term impacts on ridership, with expressway tolls waived until 29 September at 24.00. The impact is seen as limited because the Expressway Authority of Thailand will compensate the companies. The tourism group ERW, CENTEL, AAV, and AOT is seen as slightly negative and a short-term impact. The Energy group such as OR and PTG is expected to see a slight negative impact on downstream energy stocks, with total daily retail oil sales volumes of OR and PTG at approximately 29.4 million and 15.8 million liters in 2Q26, and the number of service stations in the Central, Eastern, and Western regions for OR and PTG at approximately 45% and 37% of total service stations. Meanwhile, the insurance group TIPH, TVH, MTI, BKI, and AYUD is affected by flood compensation payouts. The Commerce group such as CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC continues to see rain and flooding pressure traffic, with some branches in urban areas temporarily closed, but stockpiling of essential goods helps offset some of the impact.

The Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, or GISTDA, has reported on nationwide water conditions following continuous heavy rain. Data from satellite and geo-informatics technology shows many areas at high risk of flooding, particularly the central region and the lower north, where the high-risk red zone has expanded widely, covering Nakhon Sawan, Phichit, Phetchabun, Lopburi, Saraburi and Suphan Buri, extending to Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi and parts of Bangkok. In the lower northeast, accumulated water masses are found along river basins, with the high-risk red zone densely concentrated in Surin, Si Sa Ket, Buri Ram and Roi Et. Koraphat Vorachet, Senior Executive Vice President and Head of Research at Krungsri Securities, or KSS, assesses that the flood situation may pressure consumer purchasing power in the short term, but once the post-flood recovery phase begins, demand for home repair and renovation products tends to rise. The retail groups worth watching include Home Product Center, or HMPRO, Siam Global House, or GLOBAL, DoHome, or DOHOME, and Mr. D.I.Y. Holding (Thailand), or MRDIYT, which operates a retail business in home decoration and lifestyle products covering hardware, tools, household appliances, home decor and electrical goods. Overall, the impact on the Thai stock market will depend on the scale and duration of the effect on purchasing power, as well as the speed of the transition into the recovery phase. General merchandise retailers may face short-term pressure, while HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME and MRDIYT are retail stocks with businesses tied to home products, repairs and residential renovation, whose recovery-phase effects can be tracked on an ongoing basis.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited notes that GLOBAL's key strength lies in its continued increase in the share of Private brand products, which helps lift gross margins and offset still-weak sales. Although same-store sales, or SSS, in 3QTD contracted 6-8% year-on-year, weaker than the 4% year-on-year contraction in 2Q26, due to still-weak consumer purchasing power and heavier rainfall than last year in many areas, GPM for 3Q26F is expected to come in at 27-28%, above 26.5% in 3Q25, supported by the Private brand share rising to 27.5-28% from 27% in 3Q25, even though it is down from the high of 31.6% in 2Q26 as benefits from low-cost inventory gradually fade. The company is also opening two new branches in 3Q26F, bringing the expected total to 101 branches in Thailand at quarter-end, up 8 year-on-year. Meanwhile, its overseas business, which accounts for about 8% of normal profit in 1H26, is still trending upward, driven mainly by Myanmar and Laos. As for the Cambodia business with two branches, whose losses account for roughly 1% of GLOBAL's normal profit, it is expected to be passing its trough. Krungsri also maintains its 26F normal profit forecast at 2.8 billion baht, up 39% year-on-year, the highest in the home repair and decoration group, and expects 27F normal profit to rebase 12% year-on-year, with 3Q26F normal profit momentum of 475-525 million baht expected to grow as much as 27% year-on-year but fall 48% quarter-on-quarter. It reiterates a BUY rating with a target price of 8.80 baht. The share price has fallen 19% since August 4, the day 2Q26 results were announced, reflecting concerns that profit has already peaked in 2Q26, while valuation has dropped to nearly 1.25 standard deviations below its three-year historical average, so the brokerage still views this as an opportunity to accumulate the stock.

Finansia Syrus Securities stated that government economic stimulus measures are expected to remain a supporting factor in 4Q26, with the Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 scheme expected to be extended during October to November 2026. It estimates additional government spending of around 35 to 71 billion baht. Meanwhile, stricter credit term criteria for SMEs are expected to have limited impact, since the proportion of sales from SME products is low and current credit terms are mostly already within the 30 to 45 day range. The Thai Help Thai Plus Phase 2 measure is expected to support the continued recovery of same-store sales in the second half of 2026, driven by improving same-store sales in the consumer staple group and a positive effect from the low base in the second half of 2025 following the Thai-Cambodian clashes. In the third quarter of 2026, DOHOME and COM7 are expected to lead the group's normal profit growth at around 35 to 45 percent year on year, followed by CRC and BJC at around 15 to 20 percent year on year, while CPAXT is expected to remain a laggard due to weak same-store sales at Lotus. For the second half of 2026, the group's normal profit is expected to grow by an average of around 9.6 percent year on year, close to the momentum in the first half of 2026, and the brokerage estimates there is still upside of around 2 to 3 percent to group profits. The stocks with more notable upside than the group are COM7, SYNEX, GLOBAL and DOHOME. The research team maintains a Neutral investment weighting for the group, selecting BJC with a Buy rating and a target price of 19.5 baht, and COM7 with a Buy rating and a target price of 35 baht, as top picks. It also likes CPALL with a Buy rating and a target price of 63 baht on a wider valuation discount, and MRDIYT with a Hold rating and a target price of 10.4 baht, which is starting to look interesting.

Mr. Witoon Suriyawanakul, Chief Executive Officer of Siam Global House Public Company Limited (GLOBAL), revealed at the Thailand Transition event that the company has adopted AI and Cloud technology to revolutionize operations across its 100 branches. The company began implementing its Cloud system at the start of the year, enabling employees to work from anywhere, and has introduced AI into its HR systems, such as facial recognition for attendance and automated job interviews, to make work easier for staff. Amid intense competition and shrinking purchasing power, the company is prioritizing positive cash flow management and continues its plan to expand by 6-8 branches per year, particularly in the lower southern region, which currently covers Songkhla, Pattani, Satun, Phatthalung, and Narathiwat, with plans to expand into Yala province next year, despite challenges from unrest along the border.

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, has set a gross profit margin target of 27 to 28 percent for the second half of 2026, higher than the previous year's range of about 25.1 to 26.6 percent, even though total revenue is expected to be similar to last year due to weak purchasing power. Yutthana Suriyawanakul, Executive Vice President overseeing investor relations, said profit will improve from better margin management and continued improvement in controlling selling and administrative expenses. In the first half of 2026, the company reported total revenue of 17.15 billion baht, up 1.09 percent, and net profit of 1.74 billion baht, up 53.54 percent from the same period last year. Factors supporting margins include increasing the proportion of private brand products, which carry high margins of 40 to 45 percent and reached 27.5 percent of total sales in the latest quarter, with a target to increase that share by at least 1 percent next year. The company is also using AI for truck routing and ASRS systems at its Wang Noi distribution center and nearly 60 branches to reduce costs. Overseas, the company is the market leader in Myanmar through a local joint venture, has one branch in Laos, and plans to open one to two more branches in the south. In Indonesia, it will open two more locations this year and one to two next year. Domestically, it just opened a branch in Udon Thani early this month and plans to open a branch in Chiang Kham, Phayao province. In 2027, it targets opening four to five new branches, supported by land holdings for nearly 100 locations.

Finansia Syrus Securities maintains a buy recommendation on GLOBAL with a target price of 8.30 baht per share and keeps its 2026 profit forecast for growth of 14.7% from the previous year, while expecting 2027 and 2028 profit to grow 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. The analysis notes that the overall analyst meeting was neutral and in line with previous estimates, with same-store sales in July 2026 expected to decline 5% year-on-year, but new store sales will help offset this. The company maintains its 2026 store target of 101 branches, up from 96 branches in 2025, and expects gross margin in the second half of 2026 at 27 to 28%, compared with 26.4% in the second half of 2025 and 29.1% in the first half of 2026, supported by a higher sales mix of the company's own brands.

Five Thai listed companies with market capitalizations above 40 billion baht reported second-quarter 2026 net profit growth of more than 50 percent compared with the same period last year. PTTEP posted net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101 percent. True Corporation posted net profit of 6.554 billion baht, up 222 percent. SCG Packaging posted net profit of 2.304 billion baht, up 128 percent. Central Plaza Hotel posted net profit of 166 million baht, up 51 percent. Siam Global House posted net profit of 955.48 million baht, up 83 percent.

TTB Wealth Securities maintains an Overweight recommendation on the retail sector, assessing that sector earnings have passed their trough and the contraction in same-store sales is coming to an end. It expects combined earnings per share of the retail companies under its coverage to grow 12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, although down 16 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, and forecasts a continued recovery in the second half of 2026. Key drivers include a return to same-store sales growth, margin expansion from better product selection, and cost savings. The broker expects home improvement and furnishing retail stocks, namely GLOBAL, DOHOME, and HMPRO, as well as CRC, to show the strongest recovery, while CPN, CPALL, and COM7 continue to grow well on successful business strategies. For the building materials and home furnishing retail group, the securities firm estimates EPS will grow 37 percent in the second quarter of 2026, after earnings contracted continuously during 2023 to 2025, supported by better margins, a narrowing decline in same-store sales growth, and favorable product pricing from inflation. GLOBAL is seen as the standout, with earnings expected to grow 84 percent, driven by a higher proportion of house-brand products, cost control, and favorable pricing. CRC is expected to post 36 percent earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, thanks to business strategy adjustments that support both same-store sales and margins, as well as lower marketing and interest expenses. Meanwhile, CPN is forecast to grow earnings by 15 percent, CPALL by 7 percent, COM7 by 30 percent, and MOSHI by 19 percent, with these companies seen as continuing to gain market share and expand margins. On the other hand, CPAXT is estimated to see earnings fall a further 17 percent due to weak same-store sales and margin compression from consumers trading down to lower-priced goods. For BJC, although earnings are expected to rise 12 percent from the acquisition of a wholesale business in Vietnam, the core BigC business remains weak with negative same-store sales growth. MRDIY is forecast to grow earnings by only 13 percent, below expectations, despite rapid store expansion. TTB Wealth Securities says the trend for the second half of 2026 will strengthen as the economy improves, maintaining a positive bias on building materials and CRC, and selecting CPN, GLOBAL, and CRC as top picks in the retail sector. For recommendations and target prices, stocks rated BUY are CPN with a target price of 75 baht, GLOBAL at 9 baht, CRC at 31 baht, CPALL at 62 baht, COM7 at 34 baht, DOHOME at 4.50 baht, HMPRO at 9.50 baht, MOSHI at 50 baht, and MRDIYT at 12.20 baht. CPAXT is rated HOLD with a target price of 14 baht, and BJC is rated SELL with a target price of 12.50 baht.

The Ministry of Finance is preparing to provide a grant of 50,000 baht per household to those joining the Solar Rooftop program, against an average installation cost of around 100,000 to 150,000 baht per household, with a minimum installation size of 5 kilowatts. The project aims to assist 500,000 to 1,000,000 households with average monthly electricity bills of 3,000 to 4,000 baht, using a budget from a 200 billion baht loan source. Analysts at TTB Wealth Securities stated that this policy will directly benefit Gunkul Engineering, as well as building material and home improvement retailers such as Home Product Center, Siam Global House, and Do Home. Meanwhile, analysts at Land and Houses Securities view it as a positive factor for GUNKUL and Synnex Thailand shares. In addition, the Ministry of Finance is collaborating with the Ministry of Interior, the Metropolitan Electricity Authority, the Provincial Electricity Authority, and state specialized financial institutions, namely the Government Savings Bank and the Government Housing Bank, to support low-interest loans for the remaining costs not covered by the government subsidy.

Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, reported second-quarter 2569 net profit of 946.88 million baht, an increase of 82.46% from the same period last year when net profit was 518.95 million baht, and above the market expectation of around 700 million baht. This marks the highest profit in five years. Sales revenue edged down 0.15% to 8,170.98 million baht, but gross profit margin rose to 31.59% from 25.42% in the second quarter of 2568, supported by the push for House Brand products, whose share reached 27 to 27.5%, and AI-driven logistics cost management. Additionally, share of profit from investments in joint ventures increased to 104.86 million baht from 46.10 million baht in the second quarter of 2568. As a result, first-half net profit came in at 1,744.95 million baht, up 53.55% from the same period last year. Analysts from Krungsri Securities and KGI Securities have raised their 2569 profit forecasts, now expecting core full-year profit of 2.8 billion baht, growth of 39%, and recommend buying with a highest target price of 9.50 baht. GLOBAL shares last closed at 8.00 baht, up 5.26%, with a trading value of 675.27 million baht.

Finansia Syrus Securities recommends buying shares of Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, and has raised its target price to 8.30 baht per share. This follows a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 955 million baht, up 83.6% from the previous year and 35% above the research house and market expectations. Key drivers include a gross margin expansion to 31.6% from 25.4% in the same period last year, and an increase in private brand sales mix to 27.5%. The research team has raised its 2026 earnings forecast by 14.7% and expects normalized profit to grow 35.3% year-on-year. Although same-store sales in July remained soft, this is expected to be offset by gross margins that remain elevated.

Land and Houses Securities recommends buying shares of CPALL and GLOBAL, providing resistance, support, and stop-loss levels along with earnings estimates and target prices. For CPALL, resistance is at 50.25 baht, support at 47.50 baht, and stop-loss at 46 baht. Net profit for the second quarter of 2026 is forecast at 7.3 billion baht, up 8 percent from a year earlier but down 20 percent from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors and higher costs, particularly in the CPAXT segment. Same-store sales at 7-Eleven, Makro, and Lotus continue to grow, but there is pressure from labour costs and new store opening expenses. The strategic target price is 62 baht. For GLOBAL, resistance is at 8.30 baht, support at 7.50 baht, and stop-loss at 7.15 baht. Net profit for the second quarter of 2026 is 955 million baht, up 19 percent from the previous quarter and 84 percent from a year earlier, beating expectations by 40 percent. This was driven by a gross margin increase to 31.6 percent, thanks to a product mix shift towards house brands and home improvement categories, as well as improved procurement and logistics efficiency. The strategic target price is 8 baht.

Dao Securities Thailand expects the SET Index to recover gradually, supported by a rebound in US technology stocks, which is positive for Thai electronics shares. It warns of resistance at 1,650 points, where profit-taking could emerge. Among top picks, the broker highlights GLOBAL, which posted a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 955 million baht, beating expectations by 40 percent, and raises its target price to 9.00 baht. For TU, net profit came in at 1.3 billion baht, 16 percent above forecast, with a new target price of 14.80 baht. TU also announced a first-half 2026 dividend of 0.4 baht per share, representing a dividend yield of 3 percent.

GLOBAL's net profit for the second quarter of 2026 is projected at approximately 650 to 700 million baht, up 35 percent year-on-year but down 13 percent quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors. Although same-store sales dipped around 2 percent, the company benefited from six new branches opened over the past 12 months, bringing the total to 100 branches from 94 in the second quarter of 2025. Gross margin is expected to hit a new record above 27.5 percent, up from 20.5 percent in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a higher share of house-brand products, along with better cost control and inventory management efficiency. For the second half of 2026, profit is still expected to grow year-on-year, supported by continued gross margin expansion. The company plans to open five new domestic branches in 2026, renovate eight existing ones, and open three more branches in the second half. Overseas, it currently operates 42 branches and plans to add one in Myanmar and three in Indonesia. Full-year total revenue is expected to grow around 5 percent, with a commitment to keep full-year same-store sales from turning negative and gross margin no lower than 26 percent. On valuation, the current price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 times, above the home improvement retail sector average of 17.1 times. The analyst consensus target price is 8.05 baht.

Thunhoon reports that FORTH and GLOBAL shares are once again attracting investor interest after a significant share price recovery. FORTH reported fourth-quarter 2024 results swinging back to a net profit of 102 million baht, compared with a loss in the same period last year. Meanwhile, GLOBAL posted a net profit of 1.2 billion baht, up 15 percent from the previous year. Brokers view the business outlook for both companies as still enjoying good growth, supported by recovering domestic demand.

Kingsford Securities places afternoon support for the SET index at 1,625 to 1,630 points and resistance at 1,635 to 1,640 points, after the morning session closed down 11.91 points at 1,632.48 points with a trading value of 53 billion baht, bucking the mostly higher Asian markets. The index was pressured by selling in DELTA, which fell 5.8 percent after reporting second-quarter 2026 profit of 6.0 billion baht, down 33 percent from the previous quarter and 30 percent below expectations, due to a lower gross margin from chip shortages and higher loyalty fees. Meanwhile, funds rotated into tourism, banking, and retail sectors. The research team recommends FORTH on a technical basis with support at 16.70 baht, resistance at 18.20 to 18.90 baht, and a stop-loss at 16.30 baht, along with GLOBAL with support at 7.05 baht, resistance at 7.85 baht, and a stop-loss at 6.85 baht.

Land and Houses Securities has issued a research note recommending the purchase of GLOBAL and CBG shares, with target prices of 7.90 baht and 58.00 baht, respectively. For GLOBAL, second-quarter 2026 profit is expected to soften from the previous quarter but increase year-on-year, supported by an expanding gross margin from selling price adjustments and the use of low-cost inventory. In the second half, profit is expected to continue growing due to still-high gross margins and effective cost control. For CBG, 2026 revenue is forecast to grow strongly from its integrated distribution model and the expansion of domestic sales channels, with full-year profit estimated at around 3.19 billion baht, up 7.5 percent from the previous year. Although the gross margin in the second quarter may weaken slightly due to raw material costs and geopolitical impacts, a recovery is expected in the third quarter.

TTB Wealth Securities views the SET Index as still in a long-term uptrend, maintaining a year-end target of 1,720 points. New investment cycles from both the public and private sectors continue to be driving factors, while pointing to several signs of recovery. Bank lending has returned to growth for four consecutive months after contracting for nearly three years. Government budget disbursement has recovered from its low point, rising 8 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026. Money supply in the first five months of 2026 grew 5 percent year-on-year. Second-quarter 2026 earnings are trending better and have limited impact from the trade war, supporting upward earnings revisions for the SET. Domestic car sales are starting to recover, with the first five months of 2026 growing 14 percent year-on-year. Exports grew 17 percent year-on-year, and non-oil imports grew 35 percent year-on-year in the first five months of 2026. TTB Wealth has adjusted its Siam Senses portfolio, recommending 10 stocks: AMATA, AOT, BGRIM, CPN, DELTA, GLOBAL, GULF, KTB, STECON, and TRUE, with a buy recommendation for this round.

Phillip Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade sideways in a range of 1,640 to 1,665 points, pressured by a 2026 forward P/E of 16.7 times, close to the average since 2020 of 17.1 times, and banking stocks may face sell-on-fact pressure after earnings announcements. However, the TISA project measures will help prevent the index from falling deeply, and a rotation of funds out of banking stocks into real sector stocks is expected for speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings, which are anticipated to be strong. The investment strategy is divided into four main themes: speculation on second-quarter 2026 earnings in stocks such as AMATA, CPALL, DELTA, HANA, ITC, KCE, MRDIY, MTC, OSP, QH, SAWAD, SCC, STECON, and TIDLOR; energy stocks in BCP, PTT, PTTEP, SPRC, and TOP; speculation on government measures or projects in BJC, CENTEL, CK, CPAXT, CRC, DOHOME, ERW, GLOBAL, HMPRO, LH, MINT, and SCC; and hopes for investment inflows from China in ADVANC, GUNKUL, GULF, ROJNA, WHA, and WHAUP.

Siam Global House Public Company Limited, or GLOBAL, targets 2026 performance growth close to the country's GDP expansion rate, focusing on improving back-end efficiency and expanding house-brand products with margins above 30 percent, which currently generate around 28 to 30 percent of total sales. It also plans to expand domestic branches to 102 to 103 by the end of 2026, up from 99 currently. Meanwhile, its overseas operations in Myanmar have 13 branches, Laos 8 branches, and Indonesia 16 branches, continuing to expand despite challenges from purchasing power and fluctuating transport costs.

The policy injecting 200 billion baht under the emergency loan decree to drive clean energy and electric transport systems is positively impacting nine Thai stocks in the solar rooftop and electric vehicle ecosystem sectors. The solar rooftop group that will benefit fully includes GUNKUL from its integrated business covering equipment sales and installation contracting, SOLAR as a panel manufacturer and installation service provider, retail building materials and IT groups such as HMPRO, DOHOME, GLOBAL, and COM7 as distribution channels for ready-made household solar kits, and KTC from low-interest loan measures and installment payments for solar rooftop installation that stimulate card spending. In the electric vehicle ecosystem group, NEX benefits the most in the electric bus and truck segment, EA will ease liquidity concerns and unlock assets from its battery manufacturing and EV assembly plants, while GPSC and GULF benefit from investments in nationwide charging station infrastructure. Analysts recommend a strategy of accumulating on dips or speculating on policy momentum, while cautioning that EV and solar cell stocks often react quickly to policy news. Investors should scale in and avoid chasing prices during sharp short-term rallies.