GFPT Public Company Limited

GFPT has confirmed that its chicken slaughterhouse and processing plants in Samut Prakan province are still operating normally, even though flooding has caused slight delays in transporting goods to ports and affected some employees whose homes were inundated. Weera Thityangkuruwong, manager of the investor relations department, said demand in the main export markets of Japan, the United Kingdom, Europe, Malaysia and China remains steady and in line with the company's plans. For the third-quarter 2026 outlook, the company sees growth compared with the very high base of the third quarter of 2025 as potentially difficult, but growth versus the second quarter of 2026 is still possible. As for the fourth quarter of 2026, which is the high season, the situation will need to be reassessed because flooding could dampen tourism and domestic consumption, leaving overall 2026 earnings likely to be flat. Meanwhile, the new chicken slaughterhouse and cutting plant in Chonburi province, which sits upstream in the processing chain and supports a production capacity of about 150,000 birds per day, is preparing for a test run in early 2027, or the first quarter of 2027, and is expected to begin commercial operations around the second quarter of 2027, before the company moves ahead with building a cooked-food processing plant with a capacity of about 30,000 tons per year. GFPT currently has slaughterhouse capacity of about 150,000 birds per day but slaughters only about 100,000 birds per day, while its joint venture GFN slaughters about 100,000 birds per day, giving the group total chicken slaughter of roughly 200,000 to 260,000 birds per day. On the weaker baht, the company views it as a slight net positive, because export revenue received in US dollars exceeds the value of imports of animal feed raw materials, which are also priced in US dollars.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's exports in August 2026 were worth 34.618 billion dollars, expanding 24.3% year-on-year, the highest growth in 56 months since December 2021. Imports were worth 37.101 billion dollars, expanding 25.1%, resulting in a trade deficit of 2.482 billion dollars for August. The main supporting factors came from electronics and technology products, continued expansion of exports to the United States, and the recovery of fruit exports along with potential agricultural and food products such as pet food. For the first eight months of this year, total exports were worth 266.149 billion dollars, expanding 18.9%, while total imports were 303.986 billion dollars, expanding 36.1%, leaving a trade deficit of 37.837 billion dollars. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office still forecasts 2026 exports at 5% to 11%, with a midpoint of 8%, and will review the target again in November. But given the eight-month growth rate of 18.9%, full-year 2026 exports are estimated to expand by as much as 15%, representing a record high of 391.2674 billion dollars, which would require average monthly exports of 31 billion dollars over the remaining four months. Krungsri Securities said Thailand's August export figures were close to market expectations, but high imports still pushed Thailand to a trade deficit of 2.48 billion dollars. Notable expanding export categories included electronic components, rubber, shrimp, chicken, and pet food. It holds a positive view on DELTA, HANA, GFPT, ITC, and AAI, recommending trading with a focus on DELTA. Phillip Securities sees positive sentiment for export stocks in categories that grew well in August, as well as stocks in the industrial estate and utilities groups.

The US Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12–0 to raise interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and signaled it may raise once more this year. Its latest projections put the year-end 2026 rate at about 4.1%, with 2027 likely holding steady before a possible cut in 2028. Several brokers assess the meeting as negative for the Thai stock market in the short term, because US Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to strengthen, which could pressure foreign capital flows and share prices, especially growth stocks and those with high P/E ratios, amid inflation still above the 2% target and oil prices holding above 100 dollars a barrel, forcing the market to cope with a prolonged period of high interest rates. Tisco Securities estimates the SET will move in a range of 1,570–1,660 points, with support at 1,570–1,580 points and resistance at 1,630 and 1,660 points, and highlights the energy and commodities group such as PTTEP, PTT, SPRC, TOP, IVL, PTTGC, CPF, TFG, GFPT, TVO, SCGP and SCCC; the banking and insurance group such as KBANK, KTB, TTB, BLA and TLI; and the AI, infrastructure and power group such as HANA, AMATA, WHA, GULF, EGCO, ADVANC, TRUE and STECON. Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities favors domestic and defensive plays with clear revenue and cash flow, especially BDMS and BCH, and warns that expensive, rate-sensitive stocks such as DELTA could come under pressure if the Fed signals more sustained rate hikes than the market expects.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) says the overall food sector in the second half of 2026 is showing clearer signs of recovery. Farm-gate prices for live pigs in the eastern region rose to 79 baht per kilogram in late August to September 2026, up about 41% from the year's low of 56 baht per kilogram in February and up roughly 8% year on year, marking the first return to growth in three quarters. The average price in the third quarter of 2026 rose more than 12% from the previous quarter. The main driver was lower supply after small-scale farmers gradually reduced their breeding sow herds, which is expected to keep total pig volumes for all of 2026 at no more than 20 million head, down from an earlier estimate of 21 to 22 million head. Domestic broiler prices have risen steadily since late May 2026, with farm-gate prices at 46 baht per kilogram as of September 7, 2026, up about 21% from the low and up roughly 10% year on year, the strongest year-on-year growth of the year, driven by strong export demand, especially from Japan, Europe, and South Korea. As a result, advance orders for BTG and GFPT are full through the end of the fourth quarter of 2026.

Asia Plus Securities assessed that agri-food stocks outperformed the market yesterday, led by ITC up 7.27%, followed by TU up 5.65%, CPF up 2.70% and GFPT up 1.90%, compared with the SET which rose 1.32%. The gains are expected to have been supported by the baht's weakening trend in line with the US dollar's appreciation after the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% for the first time in more than three years and signalled continued tightening of monetary policy, bringing food exporter stocks back into focus. Meanwhile, second-half 2026 earnings are expected to recover from the first half of 2026 on seasonal factors in seafood, pet food and chicken meat exports. The research team maintains an "overweight" investment rating for the agriculture and food sector, with ITC still the top pick on the back of strong second-half 2026 profit prospects, product price increases and the opportunity for further growth through future M&A. GFPT and CPF benefit from the upcycle in meat, pork and chicken prices and still-strong chicken export prospects, while TU is supported by a recovery in operating efficiency as well as the potential benefit from Super El Niño conditions, which could help lower tuna costs in 2027.

Analysts say the baht is likely to weaken clearly after the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% at its September 2026 meeting and the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25%, while Thailand's policy rate stands at only 1%, making the interest rate differential a risk of capital outflows and pressuring the baht to weaken further. Prapak Sirivattanaket, Managing Director of Merchant Partners Securities, said on the MorningBrain program on the Tunhoon channel on September 17 that the rapidly strengthening US dollar is a factor pressuring regional currencies. Meanwhile, analysts from InnovestX Securities said the baht's depreciation is a positive factor for food stocks with export exposure, especially Thai Union Group, or TU, Charoen Pokphand Foods, or CPF, Betagro, or BTG, and GFPT. The research team recommends buying TU with a target of 16.00 baht, expecting second-half 2026 profit to grow from the first half, when margin was about 19.8%, after the company raised this year's sales growth target to 4-6% from 3-4%, and expects the full-year 2026 margin to rise to 19.5-20.5%. Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) recommend buying CPF with a target of 24.20 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 normalized profit to grow from a year earlier on a recovery in domestic pork and chicken businesses, strong chicken export growth, and the weaker baht. It also recommends buying BTG with a target of 25.50 baht, estimating third-quarter 2026 normalized profit at about 1.4-1.6 billion baht, growing strongly from the previous quarter after pork and chicken prices rebounded sharply in a V-shape and as the export high season begins. It recommends buying GFPT with a target of 14.80 baht, expecting third-quarter 2026 normalized profit to grow from a year earlier because domestic chicken prices rose clearly, with the latest Department of Internal Trade live chicken price up more than 10% from a year earlier, while farming costs held steady.

Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited, or FSS, has maintained its buy recommendation on GFPT Public Company Limited, or GFPT, and raised its 2027 target price to 13 baht per share, citing an earnings recovery driven by higher chicken prices and export growth expected to return in 2027. FSS has revised up its GFPT profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 13-15%. In addition, capacity expansion and an expected share of profit from GFN and McKey of approximately 600-800 million baht per year will support long-term growth. GFPT is still trading at a 2026 P/E of around 5.7 times, which is considered an inexpensive valuation. Key risks to monitor include competition from Chinese operators and volatility in animal feed costs.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, has unveiled a Selective Buy investment strategy focused on careful, defensive positioning. Its research team recommends accumulating foreign stocks tied to AI infrastructure that are still growing strongly, namely BE03, which is buoyed by data center electricity demand, and LENOVO19, which benefits from AI server demand. For Thai stocks, the research team favors names with company-specific catalysts and prices that still offer good value, led by Precious Shipping, or PSL, whose earnings should stand out on freight rates that have surged to a five-year high. Next is PTT, which benefits from recovering global oil prices, along with positive factors from bringing ADNOC in as a joint venture partner and the prospect of a second-half dividend. Rounding out the list is GFPT, which benefits from recovering chicken meat prices while feed costs rise at a slower pace. On the overall market, the research team assesses that global capital markets and the Thai stock market are facing a strictly cautious environment, with the main risk coming from an energy crisis that has returned as a pressure point after Saudi Arabia announced a temporary halt to crude oil pipeline operations following an attack, sending Brent crude up 2.9% to stand above 107 US dollars per barrel. If the situation drags on, it would accelerate inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation is expanding faster than expected due to artificial intelligence costs that have pushed software and computer equipment prices up 25.4% from the same period a year earlier. These factors have led the market to assign an 86.2% probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting on September 16. At the same time, the technology market is digesting challenges from the regulation of advanced AI models, with the US Senate preparing to consider four approaches to stricter oversight. Although this pressures AI chip stocks in the short term, it is expected to benefit big tech names with strong capital bases such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Apple, as well as cybersecurity stocks. In addition, the entertainment sector has a supporting factor from the film Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which is poised to break the all-time box office record and will directly and significantly boost the profit share booked by Sony Group.

KGI Securities has raised its investment weighting for the food sector to "overweight" from "neutral," stating that tighter livestock supply and higher meat product prices will drive profit recovery in the second half of 2026 through 2027, outweighing pressure from potentially higher animal feed costs. The research house cited the August 2026 update report from the World Meteorological Organization, which said the probability of El Niño intensifying to a very strong level has increased and could persist into early 2027. Domestic meat prices remain firm, with broiler chicken prices up 9% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter at 45.5 baht per kilogram. Pork prices were flat year-on-year but rose 11% quarter-on-quarter to 75.5 baht per kilogram. Sensitivity analysis showed that every 0.1 percentage point increase in gross profit margin would boost 2027 forecast net profit for Betagro, GFPT and Thaifoods Group by approximately 2.4%, 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. GFPT is the top pick with a target price of 11.40 baht, while BTG remains rated positive with a target price of 25.40 baht. TFG has no rating.

Dao Securities Thailand has issued an analysis maintaining its buy recommendation on GFPT Public Company Limited, or GFPT, with a target price of 11.50 baht, based on a 2026 PER of 6.5 times, following a group conference call with the company on September 9. It expects export volume in the third quarter of 2026 to rise to approximately 8,400-8,500 tonnes, driven by the high season and the Japanese market gradually restocking. Meanwhile, the gross profit margin is likely to hold steady at a good level close to that of the second quarter of 2026, thanks to lower corn prices and the low average cost of inventory on hand, which helps offset higher soybean meal costs. Chicken prices for the remainder of the year are expected to stay high at around 44-45 baht per kilogram, while chicken frame prices have risen to around 14-15 baht per kilogram on government measures to stimulate consumption. The new chicken slaughterhouse project remains on schedule, with system testing and commercial production expected to begin in the first half of 2027. Dao Securities is keeping its 2026 normal profit forecast for GFPT at 2.2 billion baht, down 11% from the previous year, and preliminarily estimates that third-quarter 2026 normal profit will slow compared with the same period last year due to higher average raw material costs, but has room to expand from the previous quarter on seasonal factors, as well as improving chicken and by-product prices. The operating outlook for the second half of 2026 is expected to improve compared with the first half, supported by an export recovery in the Japanese market, easing corn raw material costs, and higher overall chicken prices.

El Niño is likely to persist into early 2027, with NOAA data indicating an 81% chance of it developing into a VERY STRONG EL NIÑO during October-December 2026, leading to drought in Thailand and Asia. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market is less affected than other regions due to its index structure, where commodity-linked and banking stocks together account for more than half of the market. According to Mr. Pharadorn Teanprasert, Director of Research at Asia Plus Securities, beneficiary stocks include agricultural, food, and vegetable oil sectors such as KSL, KTIS, BRR, CPF, TFG, GFPT, and TVO, as well as energy and refinery groups like TOP, SPRC, IRPC, and BCP, due to potentially higher refining margins. Commercial banks also benefit from inflation and interest rate spreads. The SET Index has a 30% weight in commodities and 20% in banks, making Thailand an attractive haven during global supply shocks.

GFPT signals a recovery in the chicken export market in the second half of 2026, especially as Japan begins to see orders return to near-normal levels. Meanwhile, raw material costs remain stable, supporting the maintenance of a 15-16% profit margin. The company is also moving forward with expanding its chicken slaughterhouse capacity to support long-term growth. Weera Thityangkulwong, Investor Relations Manager, revealed that Japan, the main market, has started to increase orders again following economic stability and a steadier yen. The European market remains stable, while there have been no exports to China this year, with a plan to sell chicken feet domestically instead. As for the domestic market, it is expected that economic stimulus measures will end in late September, which may slow down the fourth quarter, but new tourism measures are expected to compensate. The company focuses on high-value products for export and controls costs, with corn prices dropping to about 10 baht per kilogram, while soybean meal has risen to 17 baht per kilogram, offsetting each other. The company continues to focus on its existing markets of Japan, the UK, and Europe, with the Middle East as a future option, and has plans to expand its chicken slaughterhouse, which currently handles 150,000 birds per day, to accommodate foreign orders.

KGI Securities (Thailand) reported that July exports rose 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectation of 18.3%, with export value at $34.8 billion. Meanwhile, imports increased 36.7% to $38.4 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $3.6 billion. Exports of electronic goods surged 68% year-on-year, especially those related to AI such as DELTA and HANA. DELTA already derives about 40% of its revenue from AI, while HANA is expected to start generating AI-related revenue in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, GFPT benefits from strong processed chicken exports, and BTG has been upgraded. CBG still faces very low exports to Cambodia, but it is expected that the situation has passed its lowest point. OSP has also passed its worst point in Myanmar.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's export value in July 2026 stood at 34.8 billion US dollars, expanding 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectation of 17.8%. Meanwhile, imports for the same month were 38.4 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, lower than expected, resulting in a trade deficit of 3.61 billion US dollars, less than forecast. Products with good growth include rubber, processed chicken, pet food, processed canned seafood, and electronic goods. Stocks in these sectors, such as STA, GFPT, ITC, TU, DELTA, HANA, and KCE, benefit accordingly. In the first seven months of the year, exports totaled 232 billion US dollars, up 18.2%, while imports were 267 billion US dollars, up 37.8%, with a trade deficit of 35.4 billion US dollars. The Ministry of Commerce sees support from global demand for technology products and digital infrastructure, as well as accelerated imports to prepare for US trade policies. Meanwhile, brokers like Krungsri Securities and Phillip Securities view positively on export-related stocks and recommend top picks such as DELTA, HANA, KCE, AMATA, GULF, GPSC, KBANK, and KTB.

Farm income in July accelerated 10% from a year earlier, marking a fifth straight month of growth and the strongest pace in 20 months, helped by a 12% rise in agricultural prices while output fell 2%. An analysis from Yuanta Securities said products with improving prices included cassava, palm oil and chicken eggs, while hog prices declined. Durian and hog output increased, while cassava, rambutan, mangosteen, oil palm and chicken egg production decreased. Farm income is expected to keep accelerating from the third quarter through the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by continued growth in key product revenue, output affected by drought and lower global supply, a low base last year, and a recovery cycle that typically lasts about 12 months. This cycle has already risen for five months, so there is a chance of at least another five to six months of gains. The agricultural economy accounts for 10% of GDP and involves about 30% of the population, so it is expected to significantly support consumption in the second half of 2026. It should also improve asset quality for financial institutions and ease household debt pressure, which is positive for finance stocks, while stimulating investment in machinery, tractors, water pumps, fertilizer, seeds, solar energy and farmland improvement. Recommended stocks include GFPT, TFG, STA, GLOBAL, DOHOME, MTC, SAWAD, FSMART, DRT, DCC and SAT. The analysis also suggests monitoring APURE, or Agripure Holdings Public Company Limited, whose second-quarter 2025 results recovered with net profit of 56 million baht, accelerating from 12 million baht in the first quarter of 2026 and swinging from a loss of 34 million baht in the second quarter of 2025. This was driven by export sales to Europe surging eight to ten times after Europe restricted Chinese goods seen as dumped, sending large order volumes to APURE. The company has already planned for drought-related costs, and customers bear all shipping costs, so third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to accelerate both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with the best chance in ten quarters. Fourth-quarter profit is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter and grow strongly year-on-year. If this materializes, full-year profit would be around 250 million baht, up from only 27 million baht last year, implying earnings per share of 0.26 baht. The current share price trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 8 times, with an expected dividend yield of 8 to 9 percent per year. Technically, the price has just moved back above the 200-day moving average with positive signals, with resistance at 2.60 baht and 2.80 baht.

Bualuang Securities noted in its analysis today that 12 listed companies reported financial results, split into 6 companies with better-than-expected earnings: PTT, AOT, ERW, PLANB, GFPT, and AMATA, and 6 companies with in-line earnings: TOP, BEM, BGRIM, BDMS, TIDLOR, and OSP, with no company reporting earnings below expectations. PTT reported 2Q26 net profit of 52.5 billion baht, up 144% year on year and 104% quarter on quarter, beating analyst and market expectations, driven by better-than-expected gas business profits. AOT reported 3Q26 net profit of 4.44 billion baht, 6% above analyst expectations and 17% above market expectations, due to lower-than-expected staff expenses. ERW reported 2Q26 core profit of 72 million baht, up 16% year on year but down 81% quarter on quarter on seasonal factors, beating analyst expectations. GFPT reported 2Q26 core profit of 582 million baht, down 12% year on year but up 20% quarter on quarter, beating analyst and market expectations on better-than-expected gross margin. PLANB reported 2Q26 core profit of 297 million baht, up 10% year on year but down 43% quarter on quarter, 4 to 6 percent above analyst and market expectations on better-than-expected gross margin. AMATA reported 2Q26 net profit of 1.58 billion baht, up 1,032% year on year and 15% quarter on quarter, 13% above analyst expectations and 16% above market expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.60 baht per share. For the in-line earnings group, TOP reported 2Q26 core profit of 16 billion baht, up 378% year on year and 74% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst expectations but 11% above market expectations, driven by higher refining margins and lube base margins. BGRIM reported 2Q26 core profit of 478 million baht, up 1% year on year but down 6% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations, and announced an interim dividend of 0.18 baht per share. BEM reported 2Q26 core profit of 1.01 billion baht, up 2% year on year and 16% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. BDMS reported 2Q26 core profit of 3.25 billion baht, down 7% year on year and 20% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst expectations but 7% below market expectations. TIDLOR reported 2Q26 net profit of 1.53 billion baht, up 18% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. OSP reported 2Q26 core profit of 1.10 billion baht, up 9% year on year but down 5% quarter on quarter, in line with analyst and market expectations. AAV reported a 2Q26 net loss of 2.33 billion baht, swinging from a net profit both year on year and quarter on quarter, with results in line with analyst expectations but the loss 17% smaller than market expectations.

InnovestX Securities states that the signing of an MOU extending the employment period for over four million Myanmar workers in Thailand by another five years will help unlock the most critical labour bottleneck for Thailand's labour-intensive industrial sector. It also aims to push bilateral trade value to 12 billion US dollars, up from around 7.4 billion dollars, through accelerating border checkpoint restoration, using local currency payment systems, and promoting infrastructure investment, especially the Dawei Special Economic Zone project. However, risks remain from Western sanctions that could pressure the valuation of stocks with concessions or direct investment linked to the Myanmar military government. For short-term investment strategy, the firm recommends speculative trading based on news factors for beneficiary stocks, divided into two themes: groups directly benefiting from more stable labour cost management, such as CK, STECON, GFPT, BTG, CPF, and groups benefiting from a recovering border trade atmosphere, such as MEGA, TNP, CBG, OSP, CHG, BCH.

Japan's cabinet has approved a reduction in the consumption tax on food and beverage items from 8% to 1% for a period of two years, starting April 2027. This marks the first such tax cut since the consumption tax system was introduced in 1989. The measure is part of a plan to ease the impact of inflation under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, aiming to reduce the cost of living and stimulate domestic spending. The government also plans to distribute cash handouts to low- and middle-income earners under a budget of approximately 600 billion yen per year, effectively bringing the real tax burden for the target group down to zero. Bualuang Securities stated that this measure provides significant support for consumption in Japan and benefits Thai food exporters, particularly GFPT through its subsidiaries GFN and McKey, which supply chicken parts to fast-food restaurants in Japan, as well as TU, which earns revenue from tuna products in the Japanese market, and ITC, an exporter of pet food to that market.

Pie Securities expects GFPT to post a net profit of 550 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, down 14 percent from a year earlier but up 6 percent from the previous quarter, better than its earlier estimate. The improvement reflects limited impact from rising costs so far, together with the onset of the high season for exports, which supports a still-healthy gross margin of 16 percent. Revenue is forecast at 4.59 billion baht, down 6 percent year-on-year, in line with export volume of 8,000 tonnes, down from 8,500 tonnes in the second quarter of 2025 after China began banning chicken exports from Thailand, but up from 7,500 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 as the high season gets underway. Gross margin is projected at 16.4 percent, down from 16.7 percent in the second quarter of 2025 after selling prices to Japan declined, but improving from 14.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 thanks to higher export volumes. Meanwhile, the impact of rising costs is still limited because old inventory remains. Share of profit from investments in associates is estimated at 132 million baht, down 33 percent year-on-year and 10 percent quarter-on-quarter, dragged down by GFN after domestic chicken carcass prices are expected to fall to just 11 to 12 baht per kilogramme, from 14.5 baht per kilogramme in the second quarter of 2025 and 13.5 baht per kilogramme in the first quarter of 2026. First-half 2026 net profit accounts for 54 percent of the full-year profit the research team forecasts at 1.97 billion baht. However, given the risk of a greater cost impact becoming more visible in the third quarter of 2026, the research team is keeping its full-year profit estimate unchanged. The team maintains a buy recommendation for speculative trading based on domestic chicken prices, with a fair value of 12.60 baht.

Thailand's exports in June 2026 expanded 20.8 percent from a year earlier, exceeding market expectations of around 15 percent, with a value of 34.6 billion dollars. Meanwhile, imports rose 50.3 percent to 41.1 billion dollars, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately 6.53 to 6.57 billion dollars. Key export growth drivers included pet food, which expanded for the tenth consecutive month, rising 22 percent, supporting ITC and AAI. Processed chicken grew for the seventh straight month, up 8.2 percent, boosting GFPT. Computers and components expanded for the 27th consecutive month, rising 57.4 percent, while phones, equipment, and components grew for the 13th straight month, surging 186 percent, benefiting electronic component stocks such as DELTA, HANA, and CCET. Rubber returned to growth for the first time in 14 months, supporting STA. On the risk side, new US tariff measures under Section 301 could affect some export stocks in the second half of the year.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thai exports in June 2026 reached 34.66 billion dollars, up 20.8 percent from the same month last year, extending growth for a 24th consecutive month and exceeding market expectations of 13.7 to 15.2 percent. Meanwhile, imports totaled 41.19 billion dollars, rising 50.3 percent, resulting in a June trade deficit of 6.53 billion dollars. For the first half of the year, exports amounted to 196.74 billion dollars, up 17.6 percent, and imports reached 228.49 billion dollars, up 38.0 percent, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of 31.74 billion dollars. Analysts at Yuanta Securities noted that the stronger-than-expected exports and the deficit are factors weighing on the currency, and highlighted five stock groups poised to benefit: rubber, which returned to growth of 12.5 percent after 14 months, supporting STA, NER, and TEGH; processed chicken, supporting GFPT, TFG, and CPF; pet food, which continued to grow 22.3 percent for a tenth straight month, supporting ITC and AAI; canned seafood, which resumed expansion at 17.5 percent, supporting TU; and electronic components, which accelerated growth, supporting SMT, CCET, KCE, and HANA.

Academics point out that the baht has weakened to a 14-month low of 33.60 per US dollar, benefiting the Thai economy which relies heavily on the external sector accounting for 72% of GDP. The depreciation makes export goods cheaper and stimulates tourism for the remainder of 2026. GFPT reveals that the second half of the year enters the high season, supporting export revenue which accounts for 25% of total revenue. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities recommends food and electronics stocks that benefit from the weaker baht, highlighting Thai Union, Charoen Pokphand Foods, GFPT, Delta Electronics, Hana Microelectronics, and KCE Electronics as standout stocks worth accumulating.

Asia Plus Securities expects the combined normalised profit of four agriculture and food companies — CPF, GFPT, TU, and ITC — to reach 6.45 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, flat from the previous quarter but down 53 percent from a year earlier. The outlook for the second half of 2026 is seen improving from the first half, driven by the onset of the export season in the third quarter, which is the high season for the sector, along with a likely weaker baht. The livestock segment, represented by CPF and GFPT, is expected to recover on better product prices, while the seafood and pet food segment, represented by TU and ITC, should see cost pressures gradually ease. The research team picks ITC as a top pick, citing second-half profit growth both half-on-half and year-on-year, and GFPT for its strongest second-quarter profit momentum among peers.

Asia Plus Securities, or ASPS, recommends investment strategies for volatile markets, focusing on Energy Hedge plays that benefit from oil prices and geopolitical risks, including PTTEP, BCP, TOP, and IVL, alongside safe-haven stocks. It highlights PTTEP, BCP, and MAGURO as top picks for Thai stocks, while for international exposure it favors BABA80 and SPENGY80. Additionally, it suggests SIRI, GULF, and GFPT as other interesting stocks. ASPS sees an opportunity to rotate investments from AI infrastructure plays to downstream users such as Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Xiaomi, and Alibaba. It also flags the AMD Advancing AI 2026 event on July 23 and the IPO of CXMT on July 27, which could drain liquidity and pressure memory chip prices. On the domestic positive side, the government has attracted over 70 billion baht in foreign direct investment from four major Chinese companies. In the EV sector, Xiaomi is setting up an R&D center and Changan is expanding production capacity to 200,000 units per year by 2030. In AI and data centers, Innolight and Eoptolink are preparing to expand factories in Thailand.