Asian Alliance International PCL

The Ministry of Commerce reported Thailand's trade figures for August 2026, with exports expanding 24.3% year-on-year. Although this was below the market expectation of 24.8% year-on-year, it accelerated from 21.6% year-on-year in July 2026. Meanwhile, imports expanded 25.1% year-on-year, below market expectations and below July 2026's 30.0% year-on-year and 36.7% year-on-year respectively. Among export goods that grew well in the agricultural product group were fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit, up 24.0%; rubber, up 23.2%; fresh, chilled and frozen shrimp, up 18.8%; and processed chicken, up 10.5%. In the agro-industrial product group, pet food grew 17.5% and canned and processed seafood grew 4.8%. In the industrial product group, video and audio equipment and parts grew 1,155.7%; telephones, equipment and parts grew 151.2%; electrical transformers and parts grew 55.6%; computers, equipment and parts grew 42.1%; electrical appliances and parts grew 40.9%; integrated circuit boards grew 19.2%; and gems and jewelry, excluding gold, grew 3.2%, returning to growth after contracting the previous month. The research team at Phillip Securities sees this as positive sentiment for export stocks in the categories that grew well, as well as stocks related to those export goods, and views it as a boost for industrial estate and utility stocks. It selected 17 standout stocks: in the agricultural product group, CPF, NER, STA and TEGH; in the agro-industrial product group, AAI, ITC and TU; in the industrial product group, CCET, DELTA, HANA, HTECH and KCE; and in the industrial estate and utility group, AMATA, BGRIM, GPSC, ROJNA and WHA.

The Ministry of Commerce reported that Thailand's exports in August 2026 were worth 34.618 billion dollars, expanding 24.3% year-on-year, the highest growth in 56 months since December 2021. Imports were worth 37.101 billion dollars, expanding 25.1%, resulting in a trade deficit of 2.482 billion dollars for August. The main supporting factors came from electronics and technology products, continued expansion of exports to the United States, and the recovery of fruit exports along with potential agricultural and food products such as pet food. For the first eight months of this year, total exports were worth 266.149 billion dollars, expanding 18.9%, while total imports were 303.986 billion dollars, expanding 36.1%, leaving a trade deficit of 37.837 billion dollars. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office still forecasts 2026 exports at 5% to 11%, with a midpoint of 8%, and will review the target again in November. But given the eight-month growth rate of 18.9%, full-year 2026 exports are estimated to expand by as much as 15%, representing a record high of 391.2674 billion dollars, which would require average monthly exports of 31 billion dollars over the remaining four months. Krungsri Securities said Thailand's August export figures were close to market expectations, but high imports still pushed Thailand to a trade deficit of 2.48 billion dollars. Notable expanding export categories included electronic components, rubber, shrimp, chicken, and pet food. It holds a positive view on DELTA, HANA, GFPT, ITC, and AAI, recommending trading with a focus on DELTA. Phillip Securities sees positive sentiment for export stocks in categories that grew well in August, as well as stocks in the industrial estate and utilities groups.

Asia Plus Securities research department stated that trade data for July 2026 showed Thai export value surged to 34,789.1 million US dollars, up 21.6% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 17.8%. This brings the first seven months' growth to 18.2%, and builds confidence that full-year exports will grow at a double-digit rate. Although there was a trade deficit this month, it narrowed from the previous month. Beneficiary stock groups include electronics (KCE, HANA) growing 67% on AI trends and global component demand; refined oil (PTTEP, TOP, SPRC) expanding 120%; agricultural and food products, rubber (STA, NER) up 33%; pet food (ITC, AAI) up 17%; and processed chicken still expanding well. However, risk factors from additional US semiconductor industry tariffs may impact Thai stocks such as HANA, CCET, KCE, and DELTA more in terms of negative sentiment than direct earnings impact, as Thailand is in the production chain that could face indirect shocks from slowing global goods demand.

AAI expects orders for pet food to continue recovering in the second half, supported by seasonal sales and the North American market, while hoping for a boost from the weak baht, as over 90% of export revenue is in US dollars but main costs are in baht, which should help improve margins. The company reaffirmed its 2026 revenue target of 7.6 billion baht, up 8.1%, and plans to open its second automated warehouse in Q3/2026. Ms. Keti Uma Ekat, Assistant Director of Finance and Investor Relations, said that in the second half, there are still signs of order recovery from customers in the US and Canada, following clarity on import tariffs. Meanwhile, the revenue structure in the first half came from pet food at 88%, processed food for humans at 10%, and by-products at 2%. The company targets pet food revenue of 6.8 billion baht, up 8.4%, and processed food for humans at 800 million baht, up 5.9%, while maintaining a gross margin of 13-16%, which was 13.6% in the first half.

Investors are watching KLS and AAI stocks after their Q4 2024 earnings recovered. KLS reported a net profit of 1.2 billion baht, up 15 percent from the previous year, while AAI posted a net profit of 850 million baht, recovering from a loss in the same period last year. Analysts view the strong performance as reflecting a recovery in core businesses and potentially supporting share prices in the short term.

Asian Alliance International reported a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 178 million baht, up 29.5 percent from the previous quarter but down 8.6 percent from the same period last year. Sales and service revenue totaled 1.6 billion baht, up 2.7 percent from the previous quarter but down 6.2 percent year-on-year. Revenue from the pet food business was 1.464 billion baht, ready-to-eat food business 119 million baht, and by-product business 27 million baht. Gross profit margin improved significantly to 15.9 percent from 11.2 percent in the prior quarter. For the first half, total revenue was 3.158 billion baht, down 11.9 percent from a year earlier, and net profit was 315 million baht, down 30.4 percent year-on-year, representing 41.9 percent progress toward the full-year sales target of 7.6 billion baht. The board approved an interim dividend of 0.1416 baht per share, with the XD date on August 19 and payment on September 2, 2026.

Kasikorn Securities notes that Asian Alliance International, or AAI, reported a normalised profit of 172 million baht for the second quarter of 2026, exceeding its estimate by 32%, supported by a better-than-expected gross margin of 15.9%. Total sales came in at 1.6 billion baht, down 6% year-on-year but up 3% quarter-on-quarter. The research team maintains a hold rating and raises its target price to 3.40 baht from 3.10 baht. The company also announced an interim dividend of 0.1416 baht per share, representing a payout ratio of 96% and a yield of 3.5% for the first half of 2026. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 19 August 2026, with payment on 2 September 2026.

Thailand's exports in June 2026 expanded 20.8 percent from a year earlier, exceeding market expectations of around 15 percent, with a value of 34.6 billion dollars. Meanwhile, imports rose 50.3 percent to 41.1 billion dollars, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately 6.53 to 6.57 billion dollars. Key export growth drivers included pet food, which expanded for the tenth consecutive month, rising 22 percent, supporting ITC and AAI. Processed chicken grew for the seventh straight month, up 8.2 percent, boosting GFPT. Computers and components expanded for the 27th consecutive month, rising 57.4 percent, while phones, equipment, and components grew for the 13th straight month, surging 186 percent, benefiting electronic component stocks such as DELTA, HANA, and CCET. Rubber returned to growth for the first time in 14 months, supporting STA. On the risk side, new US tariff measures under Section 301 could affect some export stocks in the second half of the year.

AAI confirms that the US raising import tariffs on Thai goods to 12.5% does not have much impact, as it is a small increase from the previous rate and trading partners have already accepted it. Thailand had previously faced a 19% tariff before it was reduced to 10%. The clarity on the tariff rate has prompted previously hesitant trading partners to resume normal ordering. Managing Director Ekaraj Phansang revealed that AAI still holds a structural advantage in the high-quality wet food segment that requires skilled labor, which US competitors cannot produce at competitive costs. The US market continues to grow 1 to 2% per year despite its already large base, and the company is also pushing ahead with European market expansion while benefiting from a weaker baht that supports profits, as almost all revenue is in foreign currencies while most costs are in baht. The earnings trend for the second half of the year is expected to be better than the first half, in line with orders starting to return.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce reported that Thai exports in June 2026 reached 34.66 billion dollars, up 20.8 percent from the same month last year, extending growth for a 24th consecutive month and exceeding market expectations of 13.7 to 15.2 percent. Meanwhile, imports totaled 41.19 billion dollars, rising 50.3 percent, resulting in a June trade deficit of 6.53 billion dollars. For the first half of the year, exports amounted to 196.74 billion dollars, up 17.6 percent, and imports reached 228.49 billion dollars, up 38.0 percent, leading to a cumulative trade deficit of 31.74 billion dollars. Analysts at Yuanta Securities noted that the stronger-than-expected exports and the deficit are factors weighing on the currency, and highlighted five stock groups poised to benefit: rubber, which returned to growth of 12.5 percent after 14 months, supporting STA, NER, and TEGH; processed chicken, supporting GFPT, TFG, and CPF; pet food, which continued to grow 22.3 percent for a tenth straight month, supporting ITC and AAI; canned seafood, which resumed expansion at 17.5 percent, supporting TU; and electronic components, which accelerated growth, supporting SMT, CCET, KCE, and HANA.