IRPC Public Company Limited

KGI Securities said there is a growing risk that the United States will ban diesel exports, after US retail diesel prices surged past US$6.50 per gallon on supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war. US officials indicated the government is considering measures to restrict diesel exports, though the format remains uncertain, ranging from a full export ban and partial caps to voluntary export reductions. Data from BCA Research dated September 24 showed US diesel exports hit a record 1.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from 1.1 million barrels per day in February 2026, and estimated that a full US export ban, combined with supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war, would affect about 47% of global diesel exports. The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, accounting for roughly 16% of global diesel exports, with most shipments going to Europe and South America. The research team views this possibility as a positive factor for sentiment on Thai refinery stocks, namely SPRC, TOP, BCP, IRPC and PTTGC.

The board of directors of IRPC Public Company Limited has resolved to appoint SiriMet Leepakorn as Chief Executive Officer and President, effective from 1 October 2026 onwards. This appointment reflects the board's confidence in SiriMet's potential, knowledge, expertise, and experience in the energy, petroleum, and petrochemical businesses. SiriMet has more than 36 years of experience in the energy and petrochemical industries, covering engineering, business development, strategic planning and management, as well as corporate administration. He previously served as Senior Executive Vice President of the Corporate Business Planning Division at IRPC Public Company Limited before taking up duties within the PTT Group as Chief Operating Officer of Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, and Senior Executive Vice President of Special Business 3 – PTT Group Operational Excellence. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Chemistry from Chiang Mai University and a Master of Business Administration from Burapha University, and has completed executive and director programs at leading institutions, including the Role of the Chairman Program (RCP50/2022) and the PTT Leadership Development Program (LDP II), Harvard Business School.

The board of directors of IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, has resolved to appoint Mr. Siri-meth Leephakorn as Chief Executive Officer and President, effective from October 1, 2026. Mr. Siri-meth has over 36 years of experience in the energy and petrochemical industries, covering engineering, business development, strategic planning and management, as well as corporate administration. He previously served as Senior Executive Vice President of Corporate Business Planning at IRPC and has held positions within PTT Group companies, including Chief Operating Officer of Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited, or GPSC, and Senior Executive Vice President of Special Business 3 – PTT Group Operational Excellence. This appointment reflects the board's confidence in his knowledge, expertise, and understanding of the industry's context and changes, which will be instrumental in continuing IRPC's operations and driving its business forward. Mr. Siri-meth will leverage his knowledge and experience in setting direction and managing the business to address changes and strengthen IRPC in the long term.

Research from Asia Plus Securities indicates that foreign investors net sold Thai stocks for six consecutive trading days, totaling nearly 20 billion baht, pressured by US bond yields rising faster than Thai yields, flooding issues and rising political temperature, as well as a baht that continues to weaken, which increases the chance of foreign exchange losses for foreign investors. However, foreign investors are still gradually accumulating certain companies, focusing on banks, energy, and some petrochemical stocks with strong stories and laggard prices. SCB led with net buying of 2.974 billion baht, followed by PTT at 1.361 billion baht, TOP at 882 million baht, IRPC at 627 million baht, and BBL at 517 million baht. Meanwhile, the research team also recommends three standout stocks: TRUE, on the trend of third-quarter 2026 profit growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with an expected dividend yield of about 1.2%; GULF, benefiting from positive sentiment from falling oil prices and the investment theme tied to the Power Development Plan and data centers; and PLANB, which is likely to raise its 2027 profit forecast on its share of investment in ICARE and its entry into the high season for the out-of-home advertising business in the second half of the year.

Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited assesses that the decline in Singapore reference refining margins is temporary. Margins fell from more than 20 US dollars per barrel at the start of the US-Iran conflict to around 7 US dollars per barrel, driven by seasonally weaker demand and increased exports of refined oil products from China. However, the refined products market is expected to tighten as winter approaches, supporting a recovery in Singapore refining margins in late the fourth quarter of 2026, with middle distillates as the main driver, given low diesel inventories, seasonally rising energy demand, low European natural gas inventories, and the possibility that European refineries will reduce runs. For the longer-term outlook, Kasikorn Securities expects global excess refining capacity to fall from 5.9 million barrels per day in 2025 to 4.7 million barrels per day by 2028, which would help Singapore refining margins gradually improve to 7–8 US dollars per barrel. On domestic factors, Kasikorn Securities estimates that the measure cutting ex-refinery diesel prices by 4 baht per litre could reduce profits of refinery companies by about 4–10%. Although it views the share price decline as having largely reflected that impact, there remains risk of further intervention if crude oil prices and diesel price spreads rise sharply. Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities Company Limited stated that as of September 20, 2026, the Fuel Fund had a negative position of 92,300 million baht, comprising a negative oil account of 52,300 million baht and a negative liquefied petroleum gas account of 40,000 million baht, with average daily obligations of about 700 million baht. There is therefore a chance the fund's position will exceed a negative 100,000 million baht by the end of September, after the previous 20,000 million baht loan facility was fully used. It also stated that the measure cutting ex-refinery diesel prices for B0, B7, and B20 diesel by 4 baht per litre, effective from September 16 to October 31, 2026, is an issue to watch, especially the possibility of extending the measure after that period, which could add pressure on TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC. Amid those risks, Kasikorn Securities still picks Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, as its top stock in the sector, citing attractive valuation and long-term profit growth potential from clean energy projects, with a "Buy" recommendation and a target price of 75.20 baht.

Suwat Sinsadok, Managing Director of Globlex Securities, told "Than Hoon" that oil prices are likely to remain elevated for at least another six months, with a base-case floor of 70 to 80 dollars per barrel and a chance of swinging up to 80 to 90 dollars per barrel. He noted that commercial and strategic petroleum reserves in many countries around the world have fallen to very low levels. He also pointed out that a key window of roughly one to two months could see the opposing sides return to the negotiating table, under pressure from the U.S. general election and the start of winter. Even if talks conclude, repairing damaged production facilities in Russia and the Middle East will take time, meaning supply will not recover quickly over the next six months. On investment strategy, he still favors the energy and refinery groups, viewing the government's move to skim 4 baht per liter from refining margins as a negative but tolerable factor, because global refining margins, or GRM, remain above 10 dollars per barrel and the diesel crack spread is around 50 dollars per barrel. PTT is the top pick, while TOP is given a fundamental target price of 88 baht, BCP just over 75 baht, and SPRC 15.50 baht. For petrochemicals, he recommends focusing on stocks that also have refineries, seeing IRPC and PTTGC as beneficiaries, followed by IVL.

InnovestX Securities assesses that the Thai stock index on September 10, 2026, may pull back and consolidate after the investment atmosphere returned to a risk-off stance, driven by the rise in the 10-year US government bond yield and continuously climbing oil prices, which brought the market back to worrying about inflation trends and the direction of US interest rates. It estimates support at 1,605 and 1,600 points, with resistance at 1,625 and 1,630 points. The key pressure comes from Brent crude oil, which rose 3.4% to reach 100 dollars per barrel, the highest since May 22, amid supply concerns after heightened tensions in the Middle East, while demand from China has begun to recover. This is seen as a short-term positive for energy stocks PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC and IRPC, as well as petrochemical stocks PTTGC and IVL, but a negative factor for SPP power plants such as GPSC and BGRIM due to rising fuel cost risks. Meanwhile, the US bond market has resumed creating pressure after the US Treasury's buyback of long-term bonds came in at 6 billion dollars, which, although double the previous amount, was still below the market's expectation of 7 to 8 billion dollars. As a result, 2-year and 10-year US bond yields rose 0.04%, and the market assigns more than 60% weight to the possibility that the Fed may raise rates to curb inflation. This high bond yield environment is seen as a positive factor for insurance stocks such as BLA and TLI. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows still show positive signals: on September 9, foreign investors net bought 3,137 million baht of Thai stocks, with cumulative net buying of 10,038 million baht since the start of September and 61,407 million baht since the start of the year, in contrast to domestic institutional investors who net sold 960 million baht, securities company accounts which net sold 1,260 million baht, and retail investors who net sold 917 million baht. On September 9, the SET closed at 1,617.89 points, down 4 points or 0.25%, with trading value of 81,330.74 million baht. For investment strategy, InnovestX recommends Selective Buy, focusing on stocks with specific positive factors, divided into three main themes: Policy and Domestic Play, Global Macro & Bond Yield Play, and Laggard Play. For the Global Macro & Bond Yield Play group, it gives weight to energy stocks PTTEP, BCP, TOP, shipping stocks PSL, TTA, as well as banking stocks KTB, BBL, KBANK and life insurers BLA, TLI. The Laggard Play group includes AP, PR9, SAWAD, HMPRO, BDMS, TU, BCH, MTC and TIDLOR.

PTT or PTT Public Company Limited has admitted that it is in talks with several partners to jointly invest in its refinery and petrochemical businesses, but has not yet reached an agreement with any of them. It emphasized that the process will be considered carefully to strengthen long-term stability and maintain its position as the major controlling shareholder. Ms. Pattaralada Saengsang, Chief Financial Officer of PTT, informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand that seeking strategic partners is one of the approaches being considered to enhance competitiveness, address excess production capacity, and cope with volatility in the global energy market. Meanwhile, Phillip Securities stated in its analysis that ADNOC is interested in buying shares in PTT's refinery group, which aligns with such a strategy, and views this as a short-term positive factor for TOP and IRPC. It maintains a 'buy on weakness' recommendation for PTT with a fundamental price of 40.00 baht, expecting a dividend yield of approximately 4-6% this year.

El Niño is likely to persist into early 2027, with NOAA data indicating an 81% chance of it developing into a VERY STRONG EL NIÑO during October-December 2026, leading to drought in Thailand and Asia. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market is less affected than other regions due to its index structure, where commodity-linked and banking stocks together account for more than half of the market. According to Mr. Pharadorn Teanprasert, Director of Research at Asia Plus Securities, beneficiary stocks include agricultural, food, and vegetable oil sectors such as KSL, KTIS, BRR, CPF, TFG, GFPT, and TVO, as well as energy and refinery groups like TOP, SPRC, IRPC, and BCP, due to potentially higher refining margins. Commercial banks also benefit from inflation and interest rate spreads. The SET Index has a 30% weight in commodities and 20% in banks, making Thailand an attractive haven during global supply shocks.

Shares of TOP and IRPC continued to surge following reports that Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), the energy giant based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, is in talks to invest in Thailand's largest oil refining companies. TOP rose to 67.25 baht before trading at 66 baht, up 2 baht or 3.13%. Meanwhile, IRPC jumped to a high of 3.22 baht and was trading at 3.10 baht, up 0.10 baht or 3.33%. The news has not been confirmed, but Krungsri Securities views it positively in the long term. If ADNOC becomes a strategic partner, it would enhance the ability to source low-cost crude oil from the Middle East and expand export opportunities beyond Southeast Asia. Although there may be short-term concerns about capital increases of PTT's subsidiaries, if the talks succeed, it is seen as a buying opportunity.

Trinity Securities noted that Bloomberg reported ADNOC is in talks to acquire a stake in the refining business under the PTT Group. The cooperation model may cover equity investment, crude oil supply contracts, and offtake agreements for petroleum products to be marketed through ADNOC's trading network. ADNOC's main motivation is to create an outlet for its own crude oil and expand its refining and trading business in Asia, but there has been no official confirmation from either party. The research house views this news as linked to PTT's Genesis Project, which aims to enhance competitiveness and create value for its refining and petrochemical businesses through restructuring and bringing in strategic partners. ADNOC is highly compatible given its crude production base and global trading network. If a partnership materializes, it would be positive for TOP, PTTGC, and IRPC, the main refining and petrochemical companies in the PTT Group, as it would help reflect strategic value and open opportunities for value unlocking, feedstock optimization, and broader market access. The research house sees the deal as win-win if the structure and valuation are appropriate, and regardless of whether the final partner is ADNOC or another party, the investment case hinges on the quality of the partner and synergies rather than the investor's name. If the Genesis Project closes a deal under value-creating terms, it would be a significant catalyst for PTT in terms of asset monetization, capital efficiency, and ROIC.

PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) is about to announce an interim dividend payment, with clear signals that it will definitely be paid, and it is expected to be higher in line with strong profits. All six subsidiaries have already announced interim dividends: PTTEP at 4.50 baht per share, GPSC at 0.55 baht, PTTGC at 0.60 baht, OR at 0.30 baht, IRPC at 0.04 baht, and TOP at 1.40 baht. In total, PTT will receive approximately 17,827.55 million baht in dividends from these six subsidiaries. PTT holds shares in each subsidiary at a ratio of 45-75%, and had cash and cash equivalents exceeding 385,613.72 million baht as of the end of Q2/2026. Meanwhile, analysts from Land and House Securities expect PTT to increase its first-half dividend from last year's 0.9 baht per share, given that first-half profit hit a record high of 78 billion baht. Krungsri Securities expects the full-year 2026 dividend to be 2.3 baht per share, representing a yield of 5.6%.

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the renewed tensions in the Middle East, following the US attack on an island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to retaliate by striking US allies in the UAE and Jordan, will pressure global financial markets. However, the structure of the Thai stock market, with its high proportion of commodity stocks, will help support the index. Foreign investors have accumulated net sales in the Thai stock market totaling 24.565 billion baht, while in the futures market (TFEX), foreigners have continued to accumulate net short positions for two consecutive months, totaling over 51,000 contracts. This puts downward pressure on the baht, which recently stood at 33.16 baht per US dollar, benefiting export, tourism, and hospital groups, especially stocks like STA (+7.01%), KCE (+6.14%), TASCO (+5.95%), as well as IRPC and SPRC, which have shown notable gains. The research department recommends a Selective Buy strategy for dividend-paying stocks and upstream energy, highlighting BBL, trading at a P/BV of only 0.6 times, cheaper than the group average of 1.2 times; PTT, benefiting from higher crude oil prices; and BCH, with a recovering earnings outlook. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to today's European CPI data, expected at +3.3% YoY, and US CPI on September 11, expected to remain steady at +3.4% YoY, as well as Tesla shares, which rose +5.5% ahead of the Cybercab launch event.

IRPC has announced a cash dividend of 0.04 baht per share, paid from retained earnings, with the board of directors approving the resolution on August 26, 2026. Shareholders will be marked ex-dividend (XD) on September 9, 2026, and those on the record date of September 10, 2026, will be entitled to receive the dividend. The payment is scheduled for September 23, 2026.

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS) has announced an interim dividend of 0.35 baht per share, with the ex-dividend (XD) date set for September 8 and the payment date on September 24. Meanwhile, IRPC has declared an interim dividend of 0.04 baht per share, with the XD date on September 9 and the payment date on September 23.

IRPC expects a bright second-half performance, supported by refining margins and crack spreads holding at high levels, with crude oil prices estimated to move in a range of 80 to 90 dollars per barrel, helping EBITDA improve. Miss Thosaeng Chaiprawat, Senior Vice President of Accounting and Finance, said during an earnings call that refining margins in the first half were high, especially in the second quarter of 2026 at 15 dollars per barrel, and the second half is still expected to be affected by unrest in the Middle East that is hitting global refinery supply. If the situation drags on, refining margins will remain high and close to the second quarter of 2026, while crude premiums stand at 17 dollars per barrel and crack spreads are very high, continuing to support the company's gross refining margin. Crude oil prices are expected to stay elevated at around 80 to 90 dollars per barrel, and if the situation eases they could fall to 70 to 80 dollars per barrel. The company manages risk by keeping oil inventories as low as possible and using forward contracts. Capital expenditure for 2026 to 2028 is about 3 billion baht per year, mostly for refinery improvements, with no large investment plans beyond the 4R+ strategic plan. The company will reduce the share of revenue from volatile businesses by expanding into high-value products such as medical hub, IT, materials and construction, while refining and petrochemicals remain core businesses. On industrial estate plans, the company still has land remaining in its estate in Rayong province and is studying a data center business. At the same time, the company is considering an interim dividend and seeking board approval, with a policy to pay no less than 25 percent of annual net profit.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that PTT has maintained energy security even as geopolitical conflicts increasingly disrupt energy transport, supported by the capability of its trading business to access supply sources worldwide. The company can still procure crude oil and feedstock for downstream operations to continue production, with refinery utilization in its group at 103% in the first half of 2026, compared with a normal level of 104% in the first half of 2025, versus the region where run rates have been cut by 8 to 17 percent, led by Chinese refineries. On the petrochemical side, olefins utilization in the first half of 2026 rose to 86%, compared with 80% in the first half of 2025, allowing the company to benefit from higher margins amid persistently tight supply. PTT maintains its target to keep expanding its trading business over the long term, aiming to diversify crude oil procurement sources to strengthen energy security and to expand trading into more fuel types. It keeps its target to increase LNG trading volume by about three times to 10 million tonnes per annum by 2030, versus 1.75 million tonnes per annum in the first half of 2026 and a 2026 target of 3.7 million tonnes per annum. The company is generating stronger cash flow, supported by nearly all businesses, and is considering increasing shareholder returns. First-half 2026 EBITDA and net profit rose 55% and 75% year on year respectively, supported by tight energy supply from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This drove higher margins in the exploration and production business along with crude oil prices, supported the gas business through lower costs from gas price restructuring and higher reference selling prices, and helped the refinery and petrochemical businesses through recovering refining margins and product spreads. These factors are expected to continue supporting year-on-year growth in the second half of 2026, leading to an improving cash flow trend. Net debt to EBITDA is likely to keep declining from 1.26 times in the first half of 2026, compared with 1.75 times in 2025, leaving excess liquidity to pay dividends to shareholders at no less than the industry average. PTT maintains its asset monetization plan and its search for strategic partners to reduce financial costs and strengthen long-term competitiveness. It keeps its target to carry out asset monetization of about 100 billion baht during 2025 to 2027, with 18 billion baht already completed from 2025 through the first half of 2026, to use liquidity to reduce debt and improve the ability to withstand long-term business volatility. It also maintains its plan to seek strategic partners or a Genesis transaction to enhance competitiveness in feedstock procurement and long-term funding sources, with progress now expected to be delayed into 2027 because the war in the Middle East and government intervention have affected negotiations. Krungsri Securities views this as slightly positive for PTT, as management is considering higher shareholder returns based on excess liquidity. This makes the forecast 2026 dividend of about 2.3 baht per share, or a yield of 5.6%, which is close to the 2025 level that included a special dividend, more likely and possibly subject to upside, compared with expected dividend yields of no less than 6 to 7 percent for PTTEP and TOP. The delay in concluding a strategic partner or Genesis transaction during the war is not worse than expected, and the broker maintains its view that it does not reduce the competitiveness of PTT and its subsidiaries, while stronger current business conditions increase bargaining power in negotiations. Krungsri Securities maintains its view that normalized profit in the third quarter of 2026 will grow year on year, still supported by nearly all businesses from upstream to downstream. Gas price restructuring has reduced feed costs for gas separation plants by 17% year on year, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised reference selling prices. Subsidiary businesses are supported by persistently tight supply, boosting margins at PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, and IRPC. The broker maintains a Buy recommendation with a 2027 target price of 44.5 baht. It keeps its view that the business is in a recovery phase, with the gas business turning around from gas restructuring and the refinery and petrochemical businesses benefiting from tighter supply as less new capacity comes online and global production restructuring takes place. This is keeping refining margins above the ten-year average and lifting petrochemical spreads back to long-term profitable levels, supporting normalized profit growth at a compound annual growth rate of 18% during 2026 to 2028.

Newspapers report that PTT has unveiled a five-year investment plan worth 1 trillion baht, pushing into petroleum exploration and production and infrastructure businesses, with PTTEP as the spearhead for investment, supporting the government's policy to drive Thai GDP growth of 3 percent. PTT will also co-host Gastech 2026 from September 14 to 17, moving ahead to seek partners to strengthen PTTGC, TOP, and IRPC, expanding LNG imports to 15 million tonnes in 2035 and targeting an increase in the share of overseas revenue to 50 percent. Meanwhile, BGRIM is pursuing energy megatrends, developing projects to support PDP 2026 and highlighting data center business as a star after signing power purchase agreements for 100 megawatts, with new customers set to add another 150 megawatts. It is also studying construction of new power plants to support data centers and preparing to bid for Quick Big Win projects to drive community solar of 300 to 500 megawatts. SGC is adjusting its loan portfolio, pushing Lock Phone with a yield of 25 percent and targeting an increase in its share to 65 percent of the portfolio. It is set to sell C4C for no more than 1.3 billion baht and preparing cash to support the high season in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. SINGER-SGC is moving to clear accumulated losses, hoping to unlock dividend payments after SGC has posted profits for eight consecutive quarters. SPCG has been taken over by the Phokachai Pattana group teaming up with Jaruthavee in a deal worth more than 5.527 billion baht, opening a full-scale offensive in green energy business in response to the new PDP 2026 plan and the unlocking of direct power purchase agreements. SPCG is found to hold hidden land assets in the Eastern Economic Corridor of more than 3,000 rai, and is moving ahead to sell electricity directly to customers of the Bangkok Free Trade Zone project of the MK group in Bang Pakong Industrial Estate. ERW is confident that the third quarter of 2026 will be strong, with total revenue growing 7 percent after July average revenue per room rose 5 percent, supported by a bright tourism outlook in the second half, driving full-year revenue growth of 6 percent to 8.4 billion baht. It is advancing the JUMP+ plan toward a target of 10 billion baht in 2028. IND believes the second half of 2026 can maintain good growth momentum after first-half results showed net profit of 13.33 million baht and service revenue of 413.31 million baht. SO continues toward a double-digit growth target, with cumulative revenue plus backlog awaiting recognition at 2.894 billion baht, or 93.2 percent of the full-year revenue target of 3.1 billion baht. THAI is adjusting strategy to cope with surging oil prices, increasing hedging to 60 percent for two years ahead as the Middle East situation looks set to drag on. It plans no reduction in available seat kilometers in the second half and will resume flights on two routes, Xiamen and Da Nang, while increasing frequency on three European routes: Paris, Munich, and Zurich. It is confident of maintaining operating profitability this year, while the aircraft procurement plan continues, with a fleet of 102 aircraft by the end of this year before rising to 128 in 2028. PRM is paying a special dividend of 0.20 baht per share from retained earnings, with the ex-dividend date set for August 27, after second-quarter 2026 results showed net profit of 580.5 million baht, up 20.2 percent, and total service revenue of 2.3171 billion baht, up 4.5 percent. INET is confident of continued growth, developing INET-IDC4 to reflect rising domestic demand for cloud infrastructure and strengthening Thai organizations toward data sovereignty. It is currently developing the EduPass system with the Ministry of Education, expected to launch within six months. SAMART is confident of a strong second-half recovery, benefiting from SAV's busy flights, while the direct coding business has passed its lowest point. It is preparing to bid for new projects worth nearly 10 billion baht, expecting the government to gradually approve and open bidding from October onward, supporting total backlog to exceed 20 billion baht by the end of this year. BAM is accelerating in the second half, generating revenue from non-performing loans, non-performing assets, and joint venture asset management companies toward set targets. It reported second-quarter 2026 collections of 3.513 billion baht, up 16 percent, with profit of more than 234 million baht, up 8 percent, while helping more customers restructure debt through the New Start with BAM program. BCH reported strong third-quarter 2026 operating results as the high season began showing good signs from late May through June, believing foreign customers will continue to recover and drive year-end results higher. It revealed it is in talks on more than 10 merger and acquisition deals and preparing to meet with the Social Security board to adjust capitation rates for all items, expected to be completed by October 2026. TFG is benefiting from high farm-gate pig prices of 72 to 74 baht per kilogram, expected to hold until September, while chicken prices have also edged up. Export demand for chicken in Europe, the United Kingdom, and Japan remains strong. It has locked in soybean and soybean meal prices until the end of 2026 to manage raw material costs, and is expanding retail stores to 875 branches by the end of this year before surpassing 1,075 branches by the end of next year. JR is set to benefit from the new PDP round, creating opportunities for additional system installation work. It signaled that the second half of 2026 will outperform the first half, supported by recognition of additional projects, and is preparing to bid for new electrical projects worth another 100 million baht, boosting backlog from 5 billion baht. It is shifting more toward quick wins to fill its portfolio and generate steady revenue. KUMWEL is building Kumwel Clinic with a target of covering 10 provinces by the end of the year, set to book revenue from the third quarter, while also eyeing BOI Plus incentives worth 100 million baht. The data center megatrend is driving demand for lightning protection and grounding systems, opening opportunities for many new projects. It is confident that 2026 revenue will grow strongly by 50 percent. ORI has laid out a three-year JUMP+ plan to accelerate performance to 1.43 billion baht in 2028, highlighting a build-operate-exit-reinvest model to develop hotels and warehouses for added value before selling into REITs to recycle capital for new investments. In the second half, it is set to book revenue from asset and land sales of another 1.5 to 1.8 billion baht. TOA is adjusting strategy to penetrate the economy paint segment, targeting rental property customers, while expanding in construction and repair chemicals to capture home renovation demand. It is proceeding with planned investment of about 600 million baht, expected to accelerate in late third quarter of 2026, focusing on new production development and targeting sales growth of 5 percent. PRINC has set a 2026 target of revenue growth exceeding 10 percent from the previous year, reaping full-year benefits from new hospital investments and a growing customer base. It said third-quarter 2026 performance will be better than the second quarter, supported by the high season and rising service usage, plus benefits from the Happitat project opening, which will continue to boost Prince Suvarnabhumi Hospital. It is upgrading complex disease services and expanding its foreign customer base to support margins. READY is expanding its Plus Customer base among medium-sized businesses with annual revenue of 30 to 300 million baht, aiming to build recurring revenue beyond its existing share of more than 90 percent. It is accelerating the use of AI to enhance products and internal systems, and launching Ready Agent-R Service, targeting revenue growth of 7 percent this year. PCE signaled a bright second half of 2026, benefiting from domestic demand for B100 biodiesel. It is expanding production capacity at its palm oil refinery for edible oil, expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2026 to support food industry growth. It is confident of strong growth in value-added products and manages integrated infrastructure to control costs efficiently across the system, supporting sustainable growth. ORN revealed a bright business outlook for the third quarter of 2026, with a solid backlog of 4.26 billion baht and continuous transfers of low-rise and high-rise projects. It is preparing to launch The Next Jed Yod 4 condominium on August 22, along with sales campaigns, and plans to expand community malls to Phuket, with opening targeted for early 2027.

IRPC shares rose 4.17% to 2.50 baht after Globlex Securities upgraded its recommendation from hold to buy and raised its target price to 3.20 baht from 2.20 baht, based on a 2026 price-to-book ratio of 0.8 times, up from 0.7 times, to reflect stronger-than-expected earnings and margins. IRPC reported a second-quarter 2026 net profit of 2.9 billion baht, swinging from a net loss of 2.1 billion baht in the same period last year, but down 63% from the previous quarter due to several special items. Excluding special items, IRPC posted core operating profit of 4 billion baht, up 1.65 times from the previous quarter and 8.5 times from the same period last year, supported by market GIM rising to 17.10 US dollars per barrel, in line with market GRM of 13.50 US dollars per barrel, comprising refining margin of 9.40 US dollars per barrel and lubricant business margin of 4.10 US dollars per barrel. In petrochemicals, olefins product GIM stood at 1.60 US dollars per barrel, aromatics at 1.20 US dollars per barrel, and utilities at 0.87 US dollars per barrel. However, after including stock losses of 4.10 US dollars per barrel and hedging losses of 2 US dollars per barrel, accounting GIM came to 11.03 US dollars per barrel. The research team raised its three-year earnings per share estimates to 16.7 times, 8.9 times, and 1.2 times the previous estimates, respectively.

PTT Group reported combined second-quarter profit for 2025 of 103 billion baht, up 157% from the same period last year. This brought first-half combined profit to 175 billion baht, an increase of 106%. PTT Public Company Limited posted net profit of 52.525 billion baht, up more than 100%, driven by higher price spreads and bond buybacks. PTT Exploration and Production recorded net profit of 27.197 billion baht, up 101%, supported by record average sales volume of 572,882 barrels of oil equivalent per day. PTT Global Chemical swung to a profit of 12.208 billion baht from a loss of 3.616 billion baht a year earlier. Thai Oil posted net profit of 8.284 billion baht, up 28%. PTT Oil and Retail Business reported a net loss of 1.774 billion baht, compared with a profit of 2.232 billion baht a year earlier. IRPC swung to a profit of 2.921 billion baht from a loss of 2.132 billion baht. Global Power Synergy recorded net profit of 1.819 billion baht, down 10%.

Asia Plus Securities' research team said profits of 283 Thai listed companies out of 682 that have reported second-quarter results came in 11.9% above market expectations. Combined with estimates for the remaining companies, which cover 93% of market capitalisation, it assesses that total second-quarter profit could reach 355 billion baht, up 6.7% from the previous quarter and 8.2% from a year earlier. This raises expectations that second-quarter profit for fiscal 2026 may set a record high, continuing from the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The main growth drivers are petrochemicals, packaging and energy. Including commodity-linked groups such as energy, petrochemicals, food and agriculture, they would account for 44% of total market profit, compared with a normal level of about 30%. The research team views that first-half profit already represents 60% of the full-year target, reducing pressure in the third and fourth quarters and opening upside to the market-wide earnings per share estimate of 95 baht per share, which gives room for the index target to be revised upward. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market slowed clearly in August, with cumulative net selling of nearly 10 billion baht, while retail investors were net buyers supporting the index. The research team recommends three stock groups: companies with better-than-expected results such as IRPC, TCAP, KCE and CENTEL; companies benefiting from commodities and geopolitics such as TASCO, RCL, BCP and PTTGC; and companies expected to recover in the second half such as THAI, ERW and BCH. Its top three picks are PTT, BDMS and CENTEL.

Shares of IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, rose 6.78% after KGI Securities Thailand said second-quarter 2026 net profit came in better than expected at 2.9 billion baht, compared with a net loss of 2.1 billion baht in the same period last year, but down 63% from the previous quarter. Profit was 9% above the research team's estimate because hedging gains were higher than expected at 1.0 billion baht, offsetting a larger-than-expected net oil stock loss of 2.5 billion baht. The research team maintained a hold recommendation with a mid-2027 target price of 2.20 baht, citing concern that crude run rates in the third quarter of 2026 are expected to fall 11-16% to 170-180 thousand barrels per day because middle distillate product storage tanks are nearly full after the Energy Ministry banned diesel exports. During the day, IRPC shares rose to a high of 2.56 baht and closed at 2.52 baht, with turnover of 528.10 million baht.

IRPC reported second-quarter 2569 net profit of 2,921 million baht, up 237 percent from a net loss of 2,132 million baht in the same period last year, supported by higher selling prices following rising crude oil prices. This brought first-half net profit to 10,810 million baht, compared with a net loss of 3,338 million baht in the same period a year earlier. Net sales revenue was 80,797 million baht, up 42 percent, as average selling prices rose 48 percent while sales volume fell 6 percent. The company posted second-quarter 2569 EBITDA of 4,070 million baht, an increase of 3,847 million baht from a year earlier but a decline of 10,680 million baht from the first quarter of 2569, due to a net oil stock loss of 3,687 million baht and realised oil hedging losses of 1,187 million baht. Chief Executive Officer and President Terdkiat Prommool said the company is continuing its Recapitalize Plus strategy and expanding its clean energy business through the Nathap solar power development project, phase one, with installed capacity of 98 megawatts, in partnership with GPSC and allies. Commercial operation is expected by December 2571. For the third quarter of 2569, the company expects Dubai crude prices to soften due to the recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and increased OPEC+ production capacity, while volatility remains from uncertainty in negotiations between the United States and Iran.

IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, reported a net profit for the second quarter of 2026 of 2.92 billion baht, swinging from a net loss of 2.13 billion baht a year earlier. Net sales revenue came in at 80.8 billion baht, up 42 percent, and EBITDA stood at 4.07 billion baht, up from 223 million baht. The main driver was a rise in market gross profit from production to 10.35 billion baht, or 17.12 US dollars per barrel, thanks to improved refining margins in the petroleum business and wider olefins and styrenics spreads amid tight supply due to Middle East tensions. However, the company was still hit by a net inventory loss of 3.69 billion baht from inventory write-downs and oil hedging losses, but an unrealised gain on oil hedging of 2.05 billion baht and a drop in net financial costs to 401 million baht helped support earnings. For the first six months of 2026, the company posted a net profit of 10.81 billion baht, reversing a loss of 3.34 billion baht a year earlier, with net sales revenue of 148.58 billion baht, up 25 percent, and EBITDA rising to 18.82 billion baht from 1.82 billion baht. The second-quarter net profit beat the LSEG consensus estimate of 2.88 billion baht by about 1.56 percent, and the first-half profit exceeded the full-year 2026 forecast of 7.57 billion baht by 42.88 percent.

Second-quarter 2025 earnings for US refiners stood out on surging refining margins. Valero Energy posted a net profit of 3.7 billion US dollars, a more than fivefold increase. HF Sinclair reported net profit of 892 million US dollars, up nearly four times, while PBF Energy swung to a net profit of 915 million US dollars from a net loss a year earlier. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum are also expected to report strong results. For Thai refiners, although they too benefit from refining margins, each company's performance will differ, depending on refinery configuration, crude oil quality, production efficiency, price risk management, and inventory gains or losses in each period. In addition, refiners must shoulder rising hidden costs, such as crude oil premiums, freight rates, and higher insurance premiums driven by Middle East risk, which could add as much as 3 to 6 baht per litre. They also face risks from oil inventory losses, higher financing costs from increased working capital, pressure from government and social measures, and the need to invest in the clean energy transition under Net Zero targets and ESG standards. Key listed Thai companies with core oil refining operations include Thai Oil Public Company Limited, or TOP, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, or SPRC, and IRPC Public Company Limited, or IRPC, while PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited, or PTTGC, has a refining business as part of its integrated structure.

KGI Securities Thailand expects IRPC to post a net profit of 2.7 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, swinging from a net loss of 2.1 billion baht in the second quarter of 2025 and down 66 percent from the previous quarter. The result is supported by a significant increase in market gross refining margin to 13.6 US dollars per barrel, amid Middle East tensions that boosted gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel spreads. The quarter-on-quarter decline is due to an expected net inventory loss of 1.5 billion baht, compared with a large gain of 10.1 billion baht in the first quarter of 2026, after Dubai crude prices fell from 128 US dollars per barrel in March to 79 US dollars per barrel in June. In petrochemicals, profit is expected to rise from the previous quarter, driven by a 53 percent surge in polypropylene spread to 506 US dollars per tonne and a 32 percent increase in ABS spread to 997 US dollars per tonne. However, the recovery is weaker than expected because the company could not fully adjust selling prices due to contracts signed before the Middle East violence erupted on 28 February. KGI raised its 2026 net profit forecast by 66 percent to 12.6 billion baht and its 2027 forecast by 30 percent to 2.0 billion baht. It also lifted its market GRM assumption for this year by 49 percent to 10.5 US dollars per barrel and for next year by 5 percent to 7.0 US dollars per barrel, reflecting stronger-than-expected spreads after Middle East tensions intensified again on 12 July. The new target price is raised to 2.20 baht from 1.80 baht, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.6 times, but the hold recommendation is maintained because the petrochemical profit recovery is weaker than expected and operating costs remain high at around 10 US dollars per barrel, significantly above other Thai refineries.

Krungsri has raised its normalised profit forecast for IRPC for 2026 and 2027 to approximately 10 billion baht and 3.5 billion baht respectively, reflecting tighter-than-expected supply conditions from the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States. The research team expects second-quarter 2026 net profit of around 2.797 billion baht, swinging to a profit year-on-year but down 65 percent from the previous quarter, with a modest net stock loss of about 1.3 billion baht. Excluding extraordinary items, normalised profit would be around 3.948 billion baht, up 226 percent quarter-on-quarter and swinging to a profit year-on-year, supported by both the refinery and petrochemical businesses benefiting from higher product spreads amid tight global supply. Krungsri maintains a Neutral recommendation and raises its 2026 target price to 2.40 baht, noting that investors can gradually switch to PTTGC or SCC, which stand to benefit more prominently.

Asia Plus Securities' research unit says new US tariff measures under Section 301, one of the risks to Thai exports in the second half of the year, will slow exports because Thailand faces a 12.5% levy, higher than some ASEAN peers like the Philippines and Malaysia, potentially reducing competitiveness. Thailand also runs a growing surplus with the US, and markets must watch for surplus-production tariffs the US has yet to announce, which will pressure the Thai economy's export sector. Product groups hit by the 12.5% tariff include pet food, processed food, and beverages, covering stocks such as AAI, ITC, PLUS, TU, and COCOCO, as well as electronics, including HANA, DELTA, KCE, and CCET. Major Thai goods exempted from the 12.5% tariff are oil, gas, and fertiliser, which the US imports heavily, easing pressure on refinery and oil stocks like PTT, PTTEP, TOP, IRPC, and BCP, and goods already under Section 232, such as automobiles, steel, aluminium, and copper, which eases pressure on processed steel and steel pipe stocks like PAP, TMT, and SAM, and auto parts stocks like AH and SAT. The Commerce Ministry reported that Thai exports in June 2026 grew 20.8% year-on-year, above the market forecast of 15.2%, while imports rose 50.3%, above the 35.8% forecast, resulting in a trade deficit of 6.565 billion US dollars. Standout products included pet food, up 22.3%, expanding for a tenth straight month; rubber, up 12.5%, returning to growth for the first time in 14 months; and processed chicken, up 6.1%, expanding for a seventh consecutive month.